chore: retire legacy oil prediction pipeline

Removes everything that was made redundant by the new forecasting
stack. Per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md,
this was the cleanup planned at the end of Phase 4.

Deleted services and code:
- App\Services\Prediction\Signals\* (the old six-signal aggregator —
  trend, supermarket, day-of-week, brand-behaviour, stickiness,
  regional-momentum, oil — replaced by RidgeRegressionModel).
- App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService (the post-Phase-4 thin
  shim; StationSearchService now depends on WeeklyForecastService
  directly, set up in the previous commit).
- App\Services\LlmPrediction\* (AbstractLlmPredictionProvider plus
  the four provider implementations — Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, and
  the OilPredictionProvider router. Replaced by LlmOverlayService).
- App\Services\BrentPricePredictor and App\Services\Ewma. The Ewma
  helper had no callers left after BrentPricePredictor went.
- App\Models\PricePrediction and its factory.
- App\Console\Commands\PredictOilPrices (the oil:predict command).
- App\Filament\Resources\OilPredictionResource and its Pages.

Schema and dashboard:
- Drop the price_predictions table via a new migration.
- Repoint the Filament StatsOverviewWidget tile from PricePrediction
  to WeeklyForecast so the dashboard reflects the new pipeline.
- Remove the OilPredictionProvider binding from AppServiceProvider.

Test cleanup:
- Delete tests for every retired service.
- Update StatsOverviewWidgetTest to seed weekly_forecasts instead of
  price_predictions.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Ovidiu U
2026-05-03 08:40:28 +01:00
parent ddd591ad47
commit 203200acb9
32 changed files with 61 additions and 2727 deletions

View File

@@ -1,54 +0,0 @@
<?php
namespace App\Models;
use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
use Database\Factories\PricePredictionFactory;
use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Fillable;
use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Builder;
use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\HasFactory;
use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
#[Fillable(['predicted_for', 'source', 'direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning', 'generated_at'])]
class PricePrediction extends Model
{
/** @use HasFactory<PricePredictionFactory> */
use HasFactory;
public $timestamps = false;
protected function casts(): array
{
return [
'predicted_for' => 'date',
'source' => PredictionSource::class,
'direction' => TrendDirection::class,
'confidence' => 'integer',
'generated_at' => 'datetime',
];
}
/**
* Order by source quality: llm_with_context llm ewma.
* Use this whenever reading the "best" prediction for a given date.
*
* @param Builder<PricePrediction> $query
* @return Builder<PricePrediction>
*/
public function scopeBestFirst(Builder $query): Builder
{
$priority = [
PredictionSource::LlmWithContext->value,
PredictionSource::Llm->value,
PredictionSource::Ewma->value,
];
$cases = '';
foreach ($priority as $rank => $source) {
$cases .= " WHEN '$source' THEN $rank";
}
return $query->orderByRaw("CASE source$cases ELSE ".count($priority).' END');
}
}