chore: retire legacy oil prediction pipeline
Removes everything that was made redundant by the new forecasting stack. Per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md, this was the cleanup planned at the end of Phase 4. Deleted services and code: - App\Services\Prediction\Signals\* (the old six-signal aggregator — trend, supermarket, day-of-week, brand-behaviour, stickiness, regional-momentum, oil — replaced by RidgeRegressionModel). - App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService (the post-Phase-4 thin shim; StationSearchService now depends on WeeklyForecastService directly, set up in the previous commit). - App\Services\LlmPrediction\* (AbstractLlmPredictionProvider plus the four provider implementations — Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, and the OilPredictionProvider router. Replaced by LlmOverlayService). - App\Services\BrentPricePredictor and App\Services\Ewma. The Ewma helper had no callers left after BrentPricePredictor went. - App\Models\PricePrediction and its factory. - App\Console\Commands\PredictOilPrices (the oil:predict command). - App\Filament\Resources\OilPredictionResource and its Pages. Schema and dashboard: - Drop the price_predictions table via a new migration. - Repoint the Filament StatsOverviewWidget tile from PricePrediction to WeeklyForecast so the dashboard reflects the new pipeline. - Remove the OilPredictionProvider binding from AppServiceProvider. Test cleanup: - Delete tests for every retired service. - Update StatsOverviewWidgetTest to seed weekly_forecasts instead of price_predictions. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Ovidiu U
@@ -1,145 +0,0 @@
|
||||
<?php
|
||||
|
||||
use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
|
||||
use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
|
||||
use App\Models\BrentPrice;
|
||||
use App\Models\PricePrediction;
|
||||
use App\Services\BrentPricePredictor;
|
||||
use App\Services\LlmPrediction\OilPredictionProvider;
|
||||
use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
|
||||
|
||||
uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
|
||||
|
||||
beforeEach(function (): void {
|
||||
$this->provider = Mockery::mock(OilPredictionProvider::class);
|
||||
$this->predictor = new BrentPricePredictor($this->provider);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('detects a rising trend when 3-day EWMA exceeds 7-day EWMA by threshold', function (): void {
|
||||
$prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
|
||||
'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
|
||||
'price_usd' => 70.0 + ($i * 2.0),
|
||||
]));
|
||||
|
||||
$prediction = $this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
|
||||
|
||||
expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising)
|
||||
->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma)
|
||||
->and($prediction->confidence)->toBeGreaterThan(0)
|
||||
->and($prediction->confidence)->toBeLessThanOrEqual(65);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('detects a falling trend when 3-day EWMA falls below 7-day EWMA by threshold', function (): void {
|
||||
$prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
|
||||
'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
|
||||
'price_usd' => 85.0 - ($i * 2.0),
|
||||
]));
|
||||
|
||||
$prediction = $this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
|
||||
|
||||
expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('returns flat when price movement is within threshold', function (): void {
|
||||
$prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
|
||||
'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
|
||||
'price_usd' => 75.0 + (($i % 2 === 0) ? 0.1 : -0.1),
|
||||
]));
|
||||
|
||||
$prediction = $this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
|
||||
|
||||
expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Flat)
|
||||
->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(50);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('returns null when fewer than 14 prices are available for EWMA', function (): void {
|
||||
$prices = collect(range(1, 10))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
|
||||
'date' => now()->subDays(10 - $i)->toDateString(),
|
||||
'price_usd' => 75.0,
|
||||
]));
|
||||
|
||||
expect($this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices))->toBeNull();
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('stores only the LLM prediction when the provider succeeds', function (): void {
|
||||
seedPrices(20);
|
||||
|
||||
$this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn(new PricePrediction([
|
||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
||||
'source' => PredictionSource::LlmWithContext,
|
||||
'direction' => TrendDirection::Rising,
|
||||
'confidence' => 70,
|
||||
'reasoning' => 'Trend is up.',
|
||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
||||
]));
|
||||
|
||||
$prediction = $this->predictor->generatePrediction();
|
||||
|
||||
expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::LlmWithContext)
|
||||
->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1)
|
||||
->and(PricePrediction::where('source', PredictionSource::Ewma)->count())->toBe(0);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('falls back to EWMA when provider returns null', function (): void {
|
||||
seedPrices(20, slope: 0.8);
|
||||
|
||||
$this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn(null);
|
||||
|
||||
$prediction = $this->predictor->generatePrediction();
|
||||
|
||||
expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma)
|
||||
->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('returns null when there is insufficient price data', function (): void {
|
||||
BrentPrice::insert([
|
||||
['date' => now()->subDays(2)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0],
|
||||
['date' => now()->subDay()->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 76.0],
|
||||
]);
|
||||
|
||||
$this->provider->shouldNotReceive('predict');
|
||||
|
||||
expect($this->predictor->generatePrediction())->toBeNull()
|
||||
->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(0);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('flags latest brent price as prediction generated on success', function (): void {
|
||||
seedPrices(20);
|
||||
|
||||
$this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn(null);
|
||||
|
||||
$this->predictor->generatePrediction();
|
||||
|
||||
$latest = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->first();
|
||||
|
||||
expect($latest->prediction_generated_at)->not->toBeNull();
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('does not flag when prediction cannot be generated', function (): void {
|
||||
BrentPrice::insert([
|
||||
['date' => now()->subDay()->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0],
|
||||
]);
|
||||
|
||||
$this->provider->shouldNotReceive('predict');
|
||||
|
||||
$this->predictor->generatePrediction();
|
||||
|
||||
expect(BrentPrice::first()->prediction_generated_at)->toBeNull();
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('returns the latest price row', function (): void {
|
||||
seedPrices(3);
|
||||
|
||||
expect($this->predictor->latestPrice())->not->toBeNull()
|
||||
->and($this->predictor->latestPrice()->date->toDateString())->toBe(now()->toDateString());
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
function seedPrices(int $count, float $slope = 1.0): void
|
||||
{
|
||||
BrentPrice::insert(
|
||||
collect(range(1, $count))->map(fn (int $i) => [
|
||||
'date' => now()->subDays($count - $i)->toDateString(),
|
||||
'price_usd' => 75.0 + ($i * $slope),
|
||||
])->all()
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user