chore: retire legacy oil prediction pipeline
Removes everything that was made redundant by the new forecasting stack. Per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md, this was the cleanup planned at the end of Phase 4. Deleted services and code: - App\Services\Prediction\Signals\* (the old six-signal aggregator — trend, supermarket, day-of-week, brand-behaviour, stickiness, regional-momentum, oil — replaced by RidgeRegressionModel). - App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService (the post-Phase-4 thin shim; StationSearchService now depends on WeeklyForecastService directly, set up in the previous commit). - App\Services\LlmPrediction\* (AbstractLlmPredictionProvider plus the four provider implementations — Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, and the OilPredictionProvider router. Replaced by LlmOverlayService). - App\Services\BrentPricePredictor and App\Services\Ewma. The Ewma helper had no callers left after BrentPricePredictor went. - App\Models\PricePrediction and its factory. - App\Console\Commands\PredictOilPrices (the oil:predict command). - App\Filament\Resources\OilPredictionResource and its Pages. Schema and dashboard: - Drop the price_predictions table via a new migration. - Repoint the Filament StatsOverviewWidget tile from PricePrediction to WeeklyForecast so the dashboard reflects the new pipeline. - Remove the OilPredictionProvider binding from AppServiceProvider. Test cleanup: - Delete tests for every retired service. - Update StatsOverviewWidgetTest to seed weekly_forecasts instead of price_predictions. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Ovidiu U
@@ -1,58 +0,0 @@
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<?php
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namespace App\Console\Commands;
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use App\Services\BrentPricePredictor;
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use Illuminate\Console\Command;
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use Throwable;
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class PredictOilPrices extends Command
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{
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protected $signature = 'oil:predict {--force : Generate even if the latest price already has a prediction}';
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protected $description = 'Generate a Brent crude oil price direction prediction';
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public function handle(BrentPricePredictor $predictor): int
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{
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try {
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$latest = $predictor->latestPrice();
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if ($latest?->prediction_generated_at !== null && ! $this->option('force')) {
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$message = sprintf(
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'Prediction already generated for %s at %s.',
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$latest->date->toDateString(),
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$latest->prediction_generated_at->toDateTimeString(),
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);
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if (! $this->confirm($message.' Run again anyway?', default: false)) {
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$this->info('Skipped.');
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return self::SUCCESS;
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}
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}
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$this->info('Generating prediction...');
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$prediction = $predictor->generatePrediction();
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if ($prediction === null) {
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$this->error('Could not generate a prediction — not enough price data.');
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return self::FAILURE;
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}
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$this->info(sprintf(
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'Done. [%s] direction=%s confidence=%d%% — %s',
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strtoupper($prediction->source->value),
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$prediction->direction->value,
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$prediction->confidence,
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$prediction->reasoning,
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));
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} catch (Throwable $e) {
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$this->error("Prediction failed: {$e->getMessage()}");
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return self::FAILURE;
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}
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return self::SUCCESS;
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}
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}
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@@ -1,141 +0,0 @@
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<?php
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namespace App\Filament\Resources;
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use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
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use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
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use App\Filament\NavigationGroup;
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use App\Filament\Resources\OilPredictionResource\Pages\ListOilPredictions;
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use App\Filament\Resources\OilPredictionResource\Pages\ViewOilPrediction;
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use App\Models\PricePrediction;
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use Filament\Actions\ViewAction;
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use Filament\Forms\Components\DatePicker;
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use Filament\Infolists\Components\TextEntry;
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use Filament\Resources\Resource;
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use Filament\Schemas\Components\Section;
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use Filament\Schemas\Schema;
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use Filament\Tables\Columns\TextColumn;
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use Filament\Tables\Filters\Filter;
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use Filament\Tables\Filters\SelectFilter;
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use Filament\Tables\Table;
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use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Builder;
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class OilPredictionResource extends Resource
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{
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protected static ?string $model = PricePrediction::class;
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protected static string|\UnitEnum|null $navigationGroup = NavigationGroup::Data;
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protected static ?string $navigationLabel = 'Oil Predictions';
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protected static ?int $navigationSort = 3;
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public static function table(Table $table): Table
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{
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return $table
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->columns([
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TextColumn::make('predicted_for')
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->date('d M Y')
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->sortable(),
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TextColumn::make('source')
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->badge()
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->formatStateUsing(fn (PredictionSource $state) => match ($state) {
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PredictionSource::Llm => 'LLM',
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PredictionSource::LlmWithContext => 'LLM + Context',
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PredictionSource::Ewma => 'EWMA',
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})
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->color(fn (PredictionSource $state) => match ($state) {
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PredictionSource::Llm => 'success',
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PredictionSource::LlmWithContext => 'warning',
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PredictionSource::Ewma => 'info',
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}),
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TextColumn::make('direction')
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->badge()
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->color(fn (TrendDirection $state) => match ($state) {
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TrendDirection::Rising => 'danger',
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TrendDirection::Falling => 'success',
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TrendDirection::Flat => 'gray',
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}),
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TextColumn::make('confidence')
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->suffix('%')
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->sortable(),
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TextColumn::make('reasoning')
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->limit(60)
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->placeholder('—'),
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TextColumn::make('generated_at')
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->dateTime('d M Y H:i')
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->sortable(),
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])
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->defaultSort('predicted_for', 'desc')
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->filters([
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SelectFilter::make('source')
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->options([
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PredictionSource::Llm->value => 'LLM',
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PredictionSource::LlmWithContext->value => 'LLM + Context',
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PredictionSource::Ewma->value => 'EWMA',
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]),
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SelectFilter::make('direction')
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->options([
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TrendDirection::Rising->value => 'Rising',
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TrendDirection::Falling->value => 'Falling',
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TrendDirection::Flat->value => 'Flat',
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]),
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Filter::make('predicted_for')
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->schema([
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DatePicker::make('from')->label('From'),
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DatePicker::make('until')->label('Until'),
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])
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->query(function (Builder $query, array $data) {
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$query
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->when($data['from'], fn ($q, $d) => $q->whereDate('predicted_for', '>=', $d))
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->when($data['until'], fn ($q, $d) => $q->whereDate('predicted_for', '<=', $d));
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}),
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])
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->recordActions([
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ViewAction::make(),
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]);
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}
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public static function infolist(Schema $schema): Schema
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{
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return $schema->components([
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Section::make('Prediction')->schema([
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TextEntry::make('predicted_for')->date('d M Y'),
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TextEntry::make('source')
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->badge()
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->formatStateUsing(fn (PredictionSource $state) => match ($state) {
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PredictionSource::Llm => 'LLM',
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PredictionSource::LlmWithContext => 'LLM + Context',
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PredictionSource::Ewma => 'EWMA',
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})
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->color(fn (PredictionSource $state) => match ($state) {
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PredictionSource::Llm => 'success',
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PredictionSource::LlmWithContext => 'warning',
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PredictionSource::Ewma => 'info',
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}),
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TextEntry::make('direction')
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->badge()
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->color(fn (TrendDirection $state) => match ($state) {
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TrendDirection::Rising => 'danger',
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TrendDirection::Falling => 'success',
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TrendDirection::Flat => 'gray',
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}),
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TextEntry::make('confidence')->suffix('%'),
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TextEntry::make('generated_at')->dateTime('d M Y H:i:s'),
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])->columns(3),
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Section::make('Reasoning')->schema([
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TextEntry::make('reasoning')
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->columnSpanFull()
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->placeholder('No reasoning recorded'),
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]),
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]);
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}
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public static function getPages(): array
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{
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return [
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'index' => ListOilPredictions::route('/'),
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'view' => ViewOilPrediction::route('/{record}'),
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];
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}
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}
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@@ -1,42 +0,0 @@
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<?php
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namespace App\Filament\Resources\OilPredictionResource\Pages;
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use App\Filament\Resources\OilPredictionResource;
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use Filament\Actions\Action;
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use Filament\Notifications\Notification;
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use Filament\Resources\Pages\ListRecords;
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use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Artisan;
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class ListOilPredictions extends ListRecords
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{
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protected static string $resource = OilPredictionResource::class;
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protected function getHeaderActions(): array
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{
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return [
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Action::make('runPrediction')
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->label('Run Prediction Now')
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->icon('heroicon-o-cpu-chip')
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->requiresConfirmation()
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->modalHeading('Run oil price prediction?')
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->modalDescription('Generates a new prediction from the stored Brent prices. Runs even if a prediction already exists for the latest price.')
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->action(function () {
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$result = Artisan::call('oil:predict', ['--force' => true]);
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if ($result === 0) {
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Notification::make()
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->title('Prediction generated successfully')
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->success()
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->send();
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} else {
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Notification::make()
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->title('Prediction failed')
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->body('Check API Logs for details.')
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->danger()
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->send();
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}
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}),
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];
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}
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}
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@@ -1,16 +0,0 @@
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<?php
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namespace App\Filament\Resources\OilPredictionResource\Pages;
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use App\Filament\Resources\OilPredictionResource;
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use Filament\Resources\Pages\ViewRecord;
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class ViewOilPrediction extends ViewRecord
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{
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protected static string $resource = OilPredictionResource::class;
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protected function getHeaderActions(): array
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{
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return [];
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}
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}
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@@ -3,10 +3,10 @@
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namespace App\Filament\Widgets;
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namespace App\Filament\Widgets;
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use App\Models\ApiLog;
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use App\Models\ApiLog;
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use App\Models\PricePrediction;
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use App\Models\Search;
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use App\Models\Search;
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use App\Models\Station;
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use App\Models\Station;
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use App\Models\User;
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use App\Models\User;
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use App\Models\WeeklyForecast;
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use Carbon\Carbon;
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use Carbon\Carbon;
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use Filament\Widgets\StatsOverviewWidget as BaseWidget;
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use Filament\Widgets\StatsOverviewWidget as BaseWidget;
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use Filament\Widgets\StatsOverviewWidget\Stat;
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use Filament\Widgets\StatsOverviewWidget\Stat;
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@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ class StatsOverviewWidget extends BaseWidget
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$this->usersStat(),
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$this->usersStat(),
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$this->searchesStat(),
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$this->searchesStat(),
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$this->stationsStat(),
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$this->stationsStat(),
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$this->oilPredictionStat(),
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$this->weeklyForecastStat(),
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$this->apiErrorsStat(),
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$this->apiErrorsStat(),
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];
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];
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}
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}
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@@ -56,23 +56,23 @@ class StatsOverviewWidget extends BaseWidget
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->color('success');
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->color('success');
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}
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}
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private function oilPredictionStat(): Stat
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private function weeklyForecastStat(): Stat
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{
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{
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$prediction = PricePrediction::bestFirst()->latest('generated_at')->first();
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$forecast = WeeklyForecast::query()->latest('generated_at')->first();
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if ($prediction === null) {
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if ($forecast === null) {
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return Stat::make('Latest oil prediction', 'None')
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return Stat::make('Latest weekly forecast', 'None')
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->icon('heroicon-o-beaker')
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->icon('heroicon-o-beaker')
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->color('gray');
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->color('gray');
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}
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}
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$ageHours = $prediction->generated_at->diffInHours(now());
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$ageHours = $forecast->generated_at->diffInHours(now());
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$color = $ageHours > 24 ? 'warning' : 'success';
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$color = $ageHours > 168 ? 'warning' : 'success'; // weekly forecast → stale after a week
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$value = $prediction->direction->label().' · '.$prediction->confidence.'%';
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$directionLabel = ucfirst($forecast->direction);
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$value = $directionLabel.' · '.$forecast->ridge_confidence.'%';
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return Stat::make('Latest oil prediction', $value)
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return Stat::make('Latest weekly forecast', $value)
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->description('Generated '.$prediction->generated_at->diffForHumans())
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->description('For week of '.$forecast->forecast_for->toDateString())
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->url(route('filament.admin.resources.oil-predictions.index'))
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->icon('heroicon-o-beaker')
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->icon('heroicon-o-beaker')
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->color($color);
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->color($color);
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}
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}
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@@ -1,54 +0,0 @@
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<?php
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|
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namespace App\Models;
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|
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use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
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use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
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use Database\Factories\PricePredictionFactory;
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use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Fillable;
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use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Builder;
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use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\HasFactory;
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use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
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#[Fillable(['predicted_for', 'source', 'direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning', 'generated_at'])]
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class PricePrediction extends Model
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{
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/** @use HasFactory<PricePredictionFactory> */
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use HasFactory;
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|
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public $timestamps = false;
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|
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protected function casts(): array
|
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||||||
{
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return [
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'predicted_for' => 'date',
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'source' => PredictionSource::class,
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'direction' => TrendDirection::class,
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'confidence' => 'integer',
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'generated_at' => 'datetime',
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||||||
];
|
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||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
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||||||
/**
|
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||||||
* Order by source quality: llm_with_context → llm → ewma.
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||||||
* Use this whenever reading the "best" prediction for a given date.
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*
|
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* @param Builder<PricePrediction> $query
|
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* @return Builder<PricePrediction>
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||||||
*/
|
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||||||
public function scopeBestFirst(Builder $query): Builder
|
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{
|
|
||||||
$priority = [
|
|
||||||
PredictionSource::LlmWithContext->value,
|
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||||||
PredictionSource::Llm->value,
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||||||
PredictionSource::Ewma->value,
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|
||||||
];
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|
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$cases = '';
|
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||||||
foreach ($priority as $rank => $source) {
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$cases .= " WHEN '$source' THEN $rank";
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||||||
}
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||||||
|
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||||||
return $query->orderByRaw("CASE source$cases ELSE ".count($priority).' END');
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||||||
}
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|
||||||
}
|
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||||||
@@ -4,11 +4,6 @@ namespace App\Providers;
|
|||||||
|
|
||||||
use App\Listeners\HandleStripeWebhook;
|
use App\Listeners\HandleStripeWebhook;
|
||||||
use App\Models\Subscription;
|
use App\Models\Subscription;
|
||||||
use App\Services\ApiLogger;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\LlmPrediction\AnthropicPredictionProvider;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\LlmPrediction\GeminiPredictionProvider;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\LlmPrediction\OilPredictionProvider;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\LlmPrediction\OpenAiPredictionProvider;
|
|
||||||
use Carbon\CarbonImmutable;
|
use Carbon\CarbonImmutable;
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Date;
|
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Date;
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
|
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
|
||||||
@@ -25,15 +20,9 @@ class AppServiceProvider extends ServiceProvider
|
|||||||
*/
|
*/
|
||||||
public function register(): void
|
public function register(): void
|
||||||
{
|
{
|
||||||
$this->app->bind(OilPredictionProvider::class, function ($app) {
|
// No bindings here. The legacy LLM prediction provider binding
|
||||||
$logger = $app->make(ApiLogger::class);
|
// was removed when the Phase 4 ridge model + Phase 8
|
||||||
|
// LlmOverlayService replaced the old daily oil prediction.
|
||||||
return match (config('services.llm.provider')) {
|
|
||||||
'openai' => new OpenAiPredictionProvider($logger),
|
|
||||||
'gemini' => new GeminiPredictionProvider($logger),
|
|
||||||
default => new AnthropicPredictionProvider($logger),
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
}
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
/**
|
||||||
|
|||||||
@@ -1,119 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
|
|
||||||
use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\BrentPrice;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\PricePrediction;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\LlmPrediction\OilPredictionProvider;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
final class BrentPricePredictor
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
private const float EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT = 1.5;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
private const int EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 65;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
private const int EWMA_MIN_ROWS = 14;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
public function __construct(
|
|
||||||
private readonly OilPredictionProvider $provider,
|
|
||||||
) {}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Return the latest BrentPrice row, or null if none exists.
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
public function latestPrice(): ?BrentPrice
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->first();
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Try LLM first; persist EWMA only as a fallback when the LLM provider
|
|
||||||
* returns null. The downstream OilSignal already prefers LLM
|
|
||||||
* (llm_with_context > llm > ewma), so writing both rows on every run is
|
|
||||||
* dead weight 95% of the time. EWMA still acts as the safety net.
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
public function generatePrediction(): ?PricePrediction
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($prices->count() < self::EWMA_MIN_ROWS) {
|
|
||||||
Log::warning('BrentPricePredictor: not enough price data', [
|
|
||||||
'rows' => $prices->count(),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$llm = $this->provider->predict($prices);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($llm !== null) {
|
|
||||||
PricePrediction::create($llm->toArray());
|
|
||||||
$prices->first()->forceFill(['prediction_generated_at' => now()])->save();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return $llm;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$ewma = $this->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($ewma !== null) {
|
|
||||||
PricePrediction::create($ewma->toArray());
|
|
||||||
$prices->first()->forceFill(['prediction_generated_at' => now()])->save();
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return $ewma;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
public function generateEwmaPrediction(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$chronological = $prices->sortBy('date')->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if (count($chronological) < self::EWMA_MIN_ROWS) {
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$ewma3 = Ewma::compute(array_slice($chronological, -3));
|
|
||||||
$ewma7 = Ewma::compute(array_slice($chronological, -7));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$changePct = (($ewma3 - $ewma7) / $ewma7) * 100;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
[$direction, $confidence] = match (true) {
|
|
||||||
$changePct >= self::EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT => [
|
|
||||||
TrendDirection::Rising,
|
|
||||||
$this->ewmaConfidence($changePct),
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
$changePct <= -self::EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT => [
|
|
||||||
TrendDirection::Falling,
|
|
||||||
$this->ewmaConfidence(abs($changePct)),
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
default => [TrendDirection::Flat, 50],
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$reasoning = sprintf(
|
|
||||||
'3-day EWMA ($%.2f) vs 7-day EWMA ($%.2f): %.2f%% %s.',
|
|
||||||
$ewma3,
|
|
||||||
$ewma7,
|
|
||||||
abs($changePct),
|
|
||||||
$direction === TrendDirection::Flat ? 'difference (flat)' : $direction->value,
|
|
||||||
);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return new PricePrediction([
|
|
||||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'source' => PredictionSource::Ewma,
|
|
||||||
'direction' => $direction,
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => $confidence,
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => $reasoning,
|
|
||||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
private function ewmaConfidence(float $changePct): int
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$scaled = min($changePct / 5.0, 1.0) * self::EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return (int) round(max(30, $scaled));
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,25 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Exponentially-weighted moving average. Pure function — used by
|
|
||||||
* BrentPricePredictor for the EWMA fallback prediction and by
|
|
||||||
* AnthropicPredictionProvider to enrich the basic-flow prompt.
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
final class Ewma
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
public const float DEFAULT_ALPHA = 0.3;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/** @param float[] $prices Chronological order (oldest first). */
|
|
||||||
public static function compute(array $prices, float $alpha = self::DEFAULT_ALPHA): float
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$ema = $prices[0];
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
foreach (array_slice($prices, 1) as $price) {
|
|
||||||
$ema = $alpha * $price + (1 - $alpha) * $ema;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return round($ema, 4);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,99 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\LlmPrediction;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
|
|
||||||
use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\BrentPrice;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\PricePrediction;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\ApiLogger;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
|
|
||||||
use Throwable;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
abstract class AbstractLlmPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
protected const int LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 85;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
public function __construct(
|
|
||||||
protected readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
|
|
||||||
) {}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Default flow: gate on API key, call the provider, normalise the payload
|
|
||||||
* to a PricePrediction. Subclasses with multi-phase flows (e.g. Anthropic
|
|
||||||
* web-search) override `predict()` directly and reuse the helper methods.
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
public function predict(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$apiKey = $this->apiKey();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($apiKey === null) {
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
try {
|
|
||||||
$payload = $this->callProvider($apiKey, $this->buildPriceList($prices));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return $payload === null ? null : $this->buildPrediction($payload);
|
|
||||||
} catch (Throwable $e) {
|
|
||||||
Log::error(static::class.': predict failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/** Returns the configured API key or null if not set. */
|
|
||||||
abstract protected function apiKey(): ?string;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Make the provider HTTP call and return the normalised payload, or null
|
|
||||||
* on failure (already logged by the implementer).
|
|
||||||
*
|
|
||||||
* @return array{direction: string, confidence: int, reasoning: string}|null
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
abstract protected function callProvider(string $apiKey, string $priceList): ?array;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/** @param Collection<int, BrentPrice> $prices */
|
|
||||||
protected function buildPriceList(Collection $prices): string
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return $prices->sortBy('date')
|
|
||||||
->map(fn (BrentPrice $p) => $p->date->toDateString().': $'.$p->price_usd)
|
|
||||||
->implode("\n");
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/** @param array{direction: string, confidence: int, reasoning: string} $input */
|
|
||||||
protected function buildPrediction(array $input, PredictionSource $source = PredictionSource::Llm): ?PricePrediction
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$direction = TrendDirection::tryFrom($input['direction'] ?? '');
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($direction === null) {
|
|
||||||
Log::error(static::class.': invalid direction', ['input' => $input]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return new PricePrediction([
|
|
||||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'source' => $source,
|
|
||||||
'direction' => $direction,
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => min((int) ($input['confidence'] ?? 0), self::LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE),
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => $input['reasoning'] ?? '',
|
|
||||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
protected function defaultPrompt(string $priceList): string
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return <<<PROMPT
|
|
||||||
You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
|
|
||||||
Predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
|
|
||||||
{$priceList}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Respond with direction (rising, falling, or flat), a confidence score (0–85),
|
|
||||||
and a one-sentence reasoning.
|
|
||||||
PROMPT;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,231 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\LlmPrediction;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\PricePrediction;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\Ewma;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
|
|
||||||
use Throwable;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
class AnthropicPredictionProvider extends AbstractLlmPredictionProvider
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Tries web-search-enriched prediction first, falls back to basic tool use.
|
|
||||||
* Overrides the parent flow because Anthropic uses two phases (web search
|
|
||||||
* loop + forced tool call) and selects the source dynamically.
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
public function predict(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
if ($this->apiKey() === null) {
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$prediction = $this->predictWithWebContext($prices);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return $prediction ?? $this->predictBasic($prices);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
protected function apiKey(): ?string
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return config('services.anthropic.api_key');
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/** {@inheritDoc} */
|
|
||||||
protected function callProvider(string $apiKey, string $priceList): ?array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Multi-turn web search phase, then a forced submit_prediction call.
|
|
||||||
* Phase 1: let the model search for recent oil/geopolitical news.
|
|
||||||
* Phase 2: force submit_prediction with the full conversation context.
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
private function predictWithWebContext(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$messages = [['role' => 'user', 'content' => $this->contextPrompt($this->buildPriceList($prices))]];
|
|
||||||
$url = 'https://api.anthropic.com/v1/messages';
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
try {
|
|
||||||
for ($i = 0, $response = null; $i < 5; $i++) {
|
|
||||||
$response = $this->apiLogger->send('anthropic', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(30)
|
|
||||||
->withHeaders($this->headers())
|
|
||||||
->post($url, [
|
|
||||||
'model' => config('services.anthropic.model', 'claude-sonnet-4-6'),
|
|
||||||
'max_tokens' => 1024,
|
|
||||||
'tools' => [['type' => 'web_search_20250305', 'name' => 'web_search']],
|
|
||||||
'messages' => $messages,
|
|
||||||
]));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if (! $response->successful()) {
|
|
||||||
Log::error(self::class.': context search request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($response->json('stop_reason') !== 'pause_turn') {
|
|
||||||
break;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$messages[] = ['role' => 'assistant', 'content' => $response->json('content')];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$messages[] = ['role' => 'assistant', 'content' => $response->json('content')];
|
|
||||||
$messages[] = ['role' => 'user', 'content' => 'Now submit your prediction using the submit_prediction tool.'];
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$submitResponse = $this->apiLogger->send('anthropic', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
|
|
||||||
->withHeaders($this->headers())
|
|
||||||
->post($url, [
|
|
||||||
'model' => config('services.anthropic.model', 'claude-sonnet-4-6'),
|
|
||||||
'max_tokens' => 256,
|
|
||||||
'tools' => [$this->submitPredictionTool()],
|
|
||||||
'tool_choice' => ['type' => 'tool', 'name' => 'submit_prediction'],
|
|
||||||
'messages' => $messages,
|
|
||||||
]));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if (! $submitResponse->successful()) {
|
|
||||||
Log::error(self::class.': context submit request failed', ['status' => $submitResponse->status()]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$input = $this->extractToolInput($submitResponse->json('content') ?? []);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return $input === null
|
|
||||||
? null
|
|
||||||
: $this->buildPrediction($input, PredictionSource::LlmWithContext);
|
|
||||||
} catch (Throwable $e) {
|
|
||||||
Log::error(self::class.': predictWithWebContext failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Single-turn prediction using a forced submit_prediction tool call.
|
|
||||||
* Guarantees structured output — no JSON parsing needed.
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
private function predictBasic(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$chronological = $prices->sortBy('date');
|
|
||||||
$ewma3 = Ewma::compute($chronological->take(-3)->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
|
|
||||||
$ewma7 = Ewma::compute($chronological->take(-7)->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
|
|
||||||
$ewma14 = Ewma::compute($chronological->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$url = 'https://api.anthropic.com/v1/messages';
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
try {
|
|
||||||
$response = $this->apiLogger->send('anthropic', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
|
|
||||||
->withHeaders($this->headers())
|
|
||||||
->post($url, [
|
|
||||||
'model' => config('services.anthropic.model', 'claude-haiku-4-5-20251001'),
|
|
||||||
'max_tokens' => 256,
|
|
||||||
'tools' => [$this->submitPredictionTool()],
|
|
||||||
'tool_choice' => ['type' => 'tool', 'name' => 'submit_prediction'],
|
|
||||||
'messages' => [[
|
|
||||||
'role' => 'user',
|
|
||||||
'content' => $this->basicPrompt($this->buildPriceList($prices), $ewma3, $ewma7, $ewma14),
|
|
||||||
]],
|
|
||||||
]));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if (! $response->successful()) {
|
|
||||||
Log::error(self::class.': basic request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$input = $this->extractToolInput($response->json('content') ?? []);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return $input === null ? null : $this->buildPrediction($input);
|
|
||||||
} catch (Throwable $e) {
|
|
||||||
Log::error(self::class.': predictBasic failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
private function contextPrompt(string $priceList): string
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return <<<PROMPT
|
|
||||||
You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
|
|
||||||
Predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
First, search for recent news (last 48 hours) about:
|
|
||||||
- Brent crude oil price movements
|
|
||||||
- OPEC+ production decisions or announcements
|
|
||||||
- Major geopolitical events affecting oil supply
|
|
||||||
- Global demand signals (China economic data, US inventory reports)
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
|
|
||||||
{$priceList}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
After searching, you will be asked to submit your prediction.
|
|
||||||
PROMPT;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
private function basicPrompt(string $priceList, float $ewma3, float $ewma7, float $ewma14): string
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return <<<PROMPT
|
|
||||||
You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
|
|
||||||
Predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
|
|
||||||
{$priceList}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Pre-computed indicators:
|
|
||||||
- 3-day EWMA: \${$ewma3}
|
|
||||||
- 7-day EWMA: \${$ewma7}
|
|
||||||
- 14-day EWMA: \${$ewma14}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Use the submit_prediction tool to submit your answer.
|
|
||||||
PROMPT;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/** @return array<string, string> */
|
|
||||||
private function headers(): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'x-api-key' => $this->apiKey(),
|
|
||||||
'anthropic-version' => '2023-06-01',
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/** @return array{name: string, description: string, input_schema: array<string, mixed>} */
|
|
||||||
private function submitPredictionTool(): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'name' => 'submit_prediction',
|
|
||||||
'description' => 'Submit the final oil price direction prediction.',
|
|
||||||
'input_schema' => [
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'object',
|
|
||||||
'properties' => [
|
|
||||||
'direction' => [
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'string',
|
|
||||||
'enum' => ['rising', 'falling', 'flat'],
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => [
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'integer',
|
|
||||||
'minimum' => 0,
|
|
||||||
'maximum' => self::LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE,
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => [
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'string',
|
|
||||||
'description' => 'One sentence explaining the prediction.',
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
'required' => ['direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning'],
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/** @param array<int, mixed> $content */
|
|
||||||
private function extractToolInput(array $content): ?array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$block = collect($content)->firstWhere('type', 'tool_use');
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return $block['input'] ?? null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,60 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\LlmPrediction;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
class GeminiPredictionProvider extends AbstractLlmPredictionProvider
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
protected function apiKey(): ?string
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return config('services.gemini.api_key');
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
protected function callProvider(string $apiKey, string $priceList): ?array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$model = config('services.gemini.model', 'gemini-2.0-flash');
|
|
||||||
$url = "https://generativelanguage.googleapis.com/v1beta/models/{$model}:generateContent";
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$response = $this->apiLogger->send('gemini', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
|
|
||||||
->withQueryParameters(['key' => $apiKey])
|
|
||||||
->post($url, [
|
|
||||||
'contents' => [[
|
|
||||||
'parts' => [['text' => $this->defaultPrompt($priceList)]],
|
|
||||||
]],
|
|
||||||
'generationConfig' => [
|
|
||||||
'responseMimeType' => 'application/json',
|
|
||||||
'responseSchema' => [
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'OBJECT',
|
|
||||||
'properties' => [
|
|
||||||
'direction' => [
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'STRING',
|
|
||||||
'enum' => ['rising', 'falling', 'flat'],
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => ['type' => 'INTEGER'],
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => ['type' => 'STRING'],
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
'required' => ['direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning'],
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
]));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if (! $response->successful()) {
|
|
||||||
Log::error(self::class.': request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$text = $response->json('candidates.0.content.parts.0.text') ?? '';
|
|
||||||
$data = json_decode($text, true);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if (! isset($data['direction'], $data['confidence'], $data['reasoning'])) {
|
|
||||||
Log::error(self::class.': unexpected response format', ['text' => $text]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return $data;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,18 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\LlmPrediction;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\BrentPrice;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\PricePrediction;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
interface OilPredictionProvider
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Generate an oil price direction prediction from recent Brent crude prices.
|
|
||||||
* Returns null on failure, API key not configured, or insufficient data.
|
|
||||||
*
|
|
||||||
* @param Collection<int, BrentPrice> $prices Chronological Brent crude prices
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
public function predict(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,62 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\LlmPrediction;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
class OpenAiPredictionProvider extends AbstractLlmPredictionProvider
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
protected function apiKey(): ?string
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return config('services.openai.api_key');
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
protected function callProvider(string $apiKey, string $priceList): ?array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$url = 'https://api.openai.com/v1/chat/completions';
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$response = $this->apiLogger->send('openai', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
|
|
||||||
->withToken($apiKey)
|
|
||||||
->post($url, [
|
|
||||||
'model' => config('services.openai.model', 'gpt-4o-mini'),
|
|
||||||
'response_format' => [
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'json_schema',
|
|
||||||
'json_schema' => [
|
|
||||||
'name' => 'oil_prediction',
|
|
||||||
'strict' => true,
|
|
||||||
'schema' => [
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'object',
|
|
||||||
'properties' => [
|
|
||||||
'direction' => ['type' => 'string', 'enum' => ['rising', 'falling', 'flat']],
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => ['type' => 'integer'],
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => ['type' => 'string'],
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
'required' => ['direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning'],
|
|
||||||
'additionalProperties' => false,
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
'messages' => [[
|
|
||||||
'role' => 'user',
|
|
||||||
'content' => $this->defaultPrompt($priceList),
|
|
||||||
]],
|
|
||||||
]));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if (! $response->successful()) {
|
|
||||||
Log::error(self::class.': request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$data = json_decode($response->json('choices.0.message.content') ?? '{}', true);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if (! isset($data['direction'], $data['confidence'], $data['reasoning'])) {
|
|
||||||
Log::error(self::class.': unexpected response format', ['data' => $data]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return $data;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,414 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use App\Enums\FuelType;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\StationPriceCurrent;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\BrandBehaviourSignal;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\DayOfWeekSignal;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\OilSignal;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\RegionalMomentumSignal;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\SignalContext;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\StickinessSignal;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\TrendSignal;
|
|
||||||
use Carbon\CarbonInterface;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
class NationalFuelPredictionService
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
private const float SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE = 0.3;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
private const int PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS = 7;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
public function __construct(
|
|
||||||
private readonly TrendSignal $trendSignal,
|
|
||||||
private readonly DayOfWeekSignal $dayOfWeekSignal,
|
|
||||||
private readonly BrandBehaviourSignal $brandBehaviourSignal,
|
|
||||||
private readonly StickinessSignal $stickinessSignal,
|
|
||||||
private readonly RegionalMomentumSignal $regionalMomentumSignal,
|
|
||||||
private readonly OilSignal $oilSignal,
|
|
||||||
) {}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* @return array{
|
|
||||||
* fuel_type: string,
|
|
||||||
* current_avg: float,
|
|
||||||
* predicted_direction: string,
|
|
||||||
* predicted_change_pence: float,
|
|
||||||
* confidence_score: float,
|
|
||||||
* confidence_label: string,
|
|
||||||
* action: string,
|
|
||||||
* reasoning: string,
|
|
||||||
* prediction_horizon_days: int,
|
|
||||||
* region_key: string,
|
|
||||||
* methodology: string,
|
|
||||||
* signals: array
|
|
||||||
* }
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
public function predict(?float $lat = null, ?float $lng = null): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$fuelType = FuelType::E10;
|
|
||||||
$hasCoordinates = $lat !== null && $lng !== null;
|
|
||||||
$context = new SignalContext($fuelType, $lat, $lng);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$currentAvg = $this->getCurrentAverage($fuelType, $lat, $lng);
|
|
||||||
$trend = $this->trendSignal->compute($context);
|
|
||||||
$dayOfWeek = $this->dayOfWeekSignal->compute($context);
|
|
||||||
$brandBehaviour = $this->brandBehaviourSignal->compute($context);
|
|
||||||
$stickiness = $this->stickinessSignal->compute($context);
|
|
||||||
$oil = $this->oilSignal->compute($context);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$nationalMomentum = $this->disabledSignal('National momentum disabled for national predictions');
|
|
||||||
$regionalMomentum = $this->regionalMomentumSignal->compute($context);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$signals = compact('trend', 'dayOfWeek', 'brandBehaviour', 'nationalMomentum', 'regionalMomentum', 'stickiness', 'oil');
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
[$direction, $confidenceScore] = $this->aggregateSignals($signals, $hasCoordinates);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$slope = $trend['slope'] ?? 0.0;
|
|
||||||
$predictedChangePence = round($slope * self::PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS, 1);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$confidenceLabel = match (true) {
|
|
||||||
$confidenceScore >= 70 => 'high',
|
|
||||||
$confidenceScore >= 40 => 'medium',
|
|
||||||
default => 'low',
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$action = match ($direction) {
|
|
||||||
'up' => 'fill_now',
|
|
||||||
'down' => 'wait',
|
|
||||||
default => 'no_signal',
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$weeklySummary = $this->computeWeeklySummary($fuelType, $lat, $lng, $currentAvg, $slope);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'fuel_type' => $fuelType->value,
|
|
||||||
'current_avg' => $currentAvg,
|
|
||||||
'predicted_direction' => $direction,
|
|
||||||
'predicted_change_pence' => $predictedChangePence,
|
|
||||||
'confidence_score' => $confidenceScore,
|
|
||||||
'confidence_label' => $confidenceLabel,
|
|
||||||
'action' => $action,
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => $this->buildReasoning($direction, $slope, $trend, $brandBehaviour, $dayOfWeek),
|
|
||||||
'prediction_horizon_days' => self::PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS,
|
|
||||||
'region_key' => $hasCoordinates ? 'regional' : 'national',
|
|
||||||
'methodology' => 'multi_signal_live_fallback',
|
|
||||||
'weekly_summary' => $weeklySummary,
|
|
||||||
'signals' => [
|
|
||||||
'trend' => $trend,
|
|
||||||
'day_of_week' => $dayOfWeek,
|
|
||||||
'brand_behaviour' => $brandBehaviour,
|
|
||||||
'national_momentum' => $nationalMomentum,
|
|
||||||
'regional_momentum' => $regionalMomentum,
|
|
||||||
'price_stickiness' => $stickiness,
|
|
||||||
'oil' => $oil,
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
private function getCurrentAverage(FuelType $fuelType, ?float $lat, ?float $lng): float
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
if ($lat !== null && $lng !== null) {
|
|
||||||
[$radiusSql, $radiusBindings] = HaversineQuery::withinKm($lat, $lng, 50);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$avg = DB::table('station_prices_current')
|
|
||||||
->join('stations', 'station_prices_current.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
|
|
||||||
->where('station_prices_current.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
|
|
||||||
->whereRaw($radiusSql, $radiusBindings)
|
|
||||||
->avg('station_prices_current.price_pence');
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($avg !== null) {
|
|
||||||
return round((float) $avg / 100, 1);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$avg = StationPriceCurrent::where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)->avg('price_pence');
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return $avg !== null ? round((float) $avg / 100, 1) : 0.0;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/** @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool} */
|
|
||||||
private function disabledSignal(string $detail): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'score' => 0.0,
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => 0.0,
|
|
||||||
'direction' => 'stable',
|
|
||||||
'detail' => $detail,
|
|
||||||
'data_points' => 0,
|
|
||||||
'enabled' => false,
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Aggregate enabled signals into a final direction + confidence score.
|
|
||||||
*
|
|
||||||
* Direction: weighted vote across signals that have a non-stable direction.
|
|
||||||
* stable signals do NOT dilute the directional vote.
|
|
||||||
*
|
|
||||||
* Confidence: weighted average of enabled signals' own confidence values,
|
|
||||||
* multiplied by an agreement coefficient (0..1) measuring how the signals
|
|
||||||
* line up with the chosen direction.
|
|
||||||
*
|
|
||||||
* @param array<string, array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, enabled: bool}> $signals
|
|
||||||
* @return array{0: string, 1: float}
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
private function aggregateSignals(array $signals, bool $hasCoordinates = false): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$weights = $hasCoordinates
|
|
||||||
? [
|
|
||||||
'regionalMomentum' => 0.35,
|
|
||||||
'oil' => 0.20,
|
|
||||||
'trend' => 0.15,
|
|
||||||
'dayOfWeek' => 0.15,
|
|
||||||
'brandBehaviour' => 0.10,
|
|
||||||
'stickiness' => 0.05,
|
|
||||||
]
|
|
||||||
: [
|
|
||||||
'trend' => 0.30,
|
|
||||||
'oil' => 0.25,
|
|
||||||
'dayOfWeek' => 0.20,
|
|
||||||
'brandBehaviour' => 0.15,
|
|
||||||
'stickiness' => 0.10,
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$directionalScoreSum = 0.0;
|
|
||||||
$directionalWeightSum = 0.0;
|
|
||||||
$confidenceWeightedSum = 0.0;
|
|
||||||
$totalEnabledWeight = 0.0;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
foreach ($weights as $key => $weight) {
|
|
||||||
$signal = $signals[$key] ?? null;
|
|
||||||
if (! $signal || ! $signal['enabled']) {
|
|
||||||
continue;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$totalEnabledWeight += $weight;
|
|
||||||
$confidenceWeightedSum += $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($signal['direction'] !== 'stable') {
|
|
||||||
$directionalScoreSum += $signal['score'] * $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
|
|
||||||
$directionalWeightSum += $weight;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($totalEnabledWeight < 0.01) {
|
|
||||||
return ['stable', 0.0];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$normalised = $directionalWeightSum > 0.01
|
|
||||||
? $directionalScoreSum / $directionalWeightSum
|
|
||||||
: 0.0;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$direction = match (true) {
|
|
||||||
$normalised >= 0.1 => 'up',
|
|
||||||
$normalised <= -0.1 => 'down',
|
|
||||||
default => 'stable',
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$avgConfidence = $confidenceWeightedSum / $totalEnabledWeight;
|
|
||||||
$agreement = $this->computeAgreement($signals, $weights, $direction);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$confidenceScore = round(min(100.0, $avgConfidence * $agreement * 100), 1);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return [$direction, $confidenceScore];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* How well the enabled signals line up with the chosen direction.
|
|
||||||
* - aligned signal: full credit (signal_confidence × weight)
|
|
||||||
* - one side stable, other directional: half credit
|
|
||||||
* - opposing signals: no credit
|
|
||||||
*
|
|
||||||
* Range: 0 (full disagreement) → 1 (unanimous).
|
|
||||||
*
|
|
||||||
* @param array<string, array{confidence: float, direction: string, enabled: bool}> $signals
|
|
||||||
* @param array<string, float> $weights
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
private function computeAgreement(array $signals, array $weights, string $finalDirection): float
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$finalDir = match ($finalDirection) {
|
|
||||||
'up' => 1,
|
|
||||||
'down' => -1,
|
|
||||||
default => 0,
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$credit = 0.0;
|
|
||||||
$maxCredit = 0.0;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
foreach ($weights as $key => $weight) {
|
|
||||||
$signal = $signals[$key] ?? null;
|
|
||||||
if (! $signal || ! $signal['enabled']) {
|
|
||||||
continue;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$maxCredit += $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$signalDir = match ($signal['direction']) {
|
|
||||||
'up' => 1,
|
|
||||||
'down' => -1,
|
|
||||||
default => 0,
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($signalDir === $finalDir) {
|
|
||||||
$credit += $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
|
|
||||||
} elseif ($signalDir === 0 || $finalDir === 0) {
|
|
||||||
$credit += 0.5 * $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return $maxCredit > 0.0 ? $credit / $maxCredit : 0.0;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Yesterday / today / tomorrow snapshot + last-7-days series.
|
|
||||||
* Regional (50km) when coordinates are given, with national fallback when
|
|
||||||
* regional data is empty.
|
|
||||||
*
|
|
||||||
* @return array{
|
|
||||||
* yesterday_avg: ?float,
|
|
||||||
* today_avg: float,
|
|
||||||
* tomorrow_estimated_avg: ?float,
|
|
||||||
* yesterday_today_delta_pence: ?float,
|
|
||||||
* last_7_days_series: array<int, array{date: string, avg: float}>,
|
|
||||||
* last_7_days_change_pence: ?float,
|
|
||||||
* cheapest_day: ?array{date: string, avg: float},
|
|
||||||
* priciest_day: ?array{date: string, avg: float},
|
|
||||||
* is_regional: bool
|
|
||||||
* }
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
private function computeWeeklySummary(FuelType $fuelType, ?float $lat, ?float $lng, float $todayAvg, float $slope): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$yesterdayAvg = $this->getDailyAverage($fuelType, now()->subDay(), $lat, $lng);
|
|
||||||
[$series, $usedRegional] = $this->getDailySeries($fuelType, 7, $lat, $lng);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$tomorrowEstimated = $todayAvg > 0.0 ? round($todayAvg + $slope, 1) : null;
|
|
||||||
$yesterdayTodayDelta = $yesterdayAvg !== null ? round($todayAvg - $yesterdayAvg, 1) : null;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$cheapestDay = null;
|
|
||||||
$priciestDay = null;
|
|
||||||
$weekChange = null;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if (count($series) >= 2) {
|
|
||||||
$byPrice = $series;
|
|
||||||
usort($byPrice, fn ($a, $b) => $a['avg'] <=> $b['avg']);
|
|
||||||
$cheapestDay = $byPrice[0];
|
|
||||||
$priciestDay = $byPrice[count($byPrice) - 1];
|
|
||||||
$weekChange = round(end($series)['avg'] - $series[0]['avg'], 1);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'yesterday_avg' => $yesterdayAvg,
|
|
||||||
'today_avg' => $todayAvg,
|
|
||||||
'tomorrow_estimated_avg' => $tomorrowEstimated,
|
|
||||||
'yesterday_today_delta_pence' => $yesterdayTodayDelta,
|
|
||||||
'last_7_days_series' => $series,
|
|
||||||
'last_7_days_change_pence' => $weekChange,
|
|
||||||
'cheapest_day' => $cheapestDay,
|
|
||||||
'priciest_day' => $priciestDay,
|
|
||||||
'is_regional' => $usedRegional,
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
private function getDailyAverage(FuelType $fuelType, CarbonInterface $date, ?float $lat, ?float $lng): ?float
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$dateString = $date->toDateString();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($lat !== null && $lng !== null) {
|
|
||||||
[$radiusSql, $radiusBindings] = HaversineQuery::withinKm($lat, $lng, 50);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$regional = DB::table('station_prices')
|
|
||||||
->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
|
|
||||||
->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
|
|
||||||
->whereDate('station_prices.price_effective_at', $dateString)
|
|
||||||
->whereRaw($radiusSql, $radiusBindings)
|
|
||||||
->avg('station_prices.price_pence');
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($regional !== null) {
|
|
||||||
return round((float) $regional / 100, 1);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$national = DB::table('station_prices')
|
|
||||||
->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
|
|
||||||
->whereDate('price_effective_at', $dateString)
|
|
||||||
->avg('price_pence');
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return $national !== null ? round((float) $national / 100, 1) : null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* @return array{0: array<int, array{date: string, avg: float}>, 1: bool}
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
private function getDailySeries(FuelType $fuelType, int $days, ?float $lat, ?float $lng): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$rows = collect();
|
|
||||||
$usedRegional = false;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($lat !== null && $lng !== null) {
|
|
||||||
[$radiusSql, $radiusBindings] = HaversineQuery::withinKm($lat, $lng, 50);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$rows = DB::table('station_prices')
|
|
||||||
->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
|
|
||||||
->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
|
|
||||||
->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays($days)->startOfDay())
|
|
||||||
->whereRaw($radiusSql, $radiusBindings)
|
|
||||||
->selectRaw('DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
|
|
||||||
->groupBy('day')
|
|
||||||
->orderBy('day')
|
|
||||||
->get();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$usedRegional = $rows->isNotEmpty();
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($rows->isEmpty()) {
|
|
||||||
$rows = DB::table('station_prices')
|
|
||||||
->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
|
|
||||||
->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays($days)->startOfDay())
|
|
||||||
->selectRaw('DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price')
|
|
||||||
->groupBy('day')
|
|
||||||
->orderBy('day')
|
|
||||||
->get();
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$series = $rows->map(fn ($r): array => [
|
|
||||||
'date' => (string) $r->day,
|
|
||||||
'avg' => round((float) $r->avg_price / 100, 1),
|
|
||||||
])->values()->all();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return [$series, $usedRegional];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* @param array{enabled: bool, detail: string, direction: string} $trend
|
|
||||||
* @param array{enabled: bool, detail: string, direction: string} $brandBehaviour
|
|
||||||
* @param array{enabled: bool, detail: string, direction: string} $dayOfWeek
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
private function buildReasoning(string $direction, float $slope, array $trend, array $brandBehaviour, array $dayOfWeek): string
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$parts = [];
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($trend['enabled'] && abs($slope) >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE) {
|
|
||||||
$parts[] = $trend['detail'];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($brandBehaviour['enabled'] && $brandBehaviour['direction'] !== 'stable') {
|
|
||||||
$parts[] = $brandBehaviour['detail'];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($dayOfWeek['enabled']) {
|
|
||||||
$parts[] = $dayOfWeek['detail'];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if (empty($parts)) {
|
|
||||||
return match ($direction) {
|
|
||||||
'up' => 'Mild upward signals — top up soon if you\'re nearby.',
|
|
||||||
'down' => 'Mild downward signals — wait a day or two if your tank can hold.',
|
|
||||||
default => 'No clear pattern — fill up at the cheapest station near you now.',
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return implode(' ', $parts);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,61 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
abstract class AbstractSignal implements Signal
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
/** @return array{score: 0.0, confidence: 0.0, direction: 'stable', detail: string, data_points: 0, enabled: false} */
|
|
||||||
protected function disabledSignal(string $detail): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'score' => 0.0,
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => 0.0,
|
|
||||||
'direction' => 'stable',
|
|
||||||
'detail' => $detail,
|
|
||||||
'data_points' => 0,
|
|
||||||
'enabled' => false,
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Least-squares linear regression. x = array index, y = value.
|
|
||||||
*
|
|
||||||
* @param float[] $values
|
|
||||||
* @return array{slope: float, r_squared: float}
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
protected function linearRegression(array $values): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$n = count($values);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($n < 2) {
|
|
||||||
return ['slope' => 0.0, 'r_squared' => 0.0];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$xMean = ($n - 1) / 2.0;
|
|
||||||
$yMean = array_sum($values) / $n;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$numerator = 0.0;
|
|
||||||
$denominator = 0.0;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
|
|
||||||
$x = $i - $xMean;
|
|
||||||
$numerator += $x * ($y - $yMean);
|
|
||||||
$denominator += $x * $x;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$slope = $denominator > 0.0 ? $numerator / $denominator : 0.0;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$ssRes = 0.0;
|
|
||||||
$ssTot = 0.0;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
|
|
||||||
$predicted = $yMean + $slope * ($i - $xMean);
|
|
||||||
$ssRes += ($y - $predicted) ** 2;
|
|
||||||
$ssTot += ($y - $yMean) ** 2;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$rSquared = $ssTot > 0.0 ? max(0.0, 1.0 - ($ssRes / $ssTot)) : 0.0;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return ['slope' => $slope, 'r_squared' => $rSquared];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,61 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
final class BrandBehaviourSignal extends AbstractSignal
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$rows = DB::table('station_prices')
|
|
||||||
->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
|
|
||||||
->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
|
|
||||||
->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(7))
|
|
||||||
->selectRaw('stations.is_supermarket, DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
|
|
||||||
->groupBy('stations.is_supermarket', 'day')
|
|
||||||
->orderBy('day')
|
|
||||||
->get();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$supermarket = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 1)->values();
|
|
||||||
$major = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 0)->values();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($supermarket->count() < 2 || $major->count() < 2) {
|
|
||||||
return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient brand data for comparison');
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$supermarketSlope = $this->linearRegression($supermarket->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
|
|
||||||
$majorSlope = $this->linearRegression($major->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$divergence = round(abs($supermarketSlope - $majorSlope) * 7, 1);
|
|
||||||
$supermarketChange = round($supermarketSlope * 7, 1);
|
|
||||||
$majorChange = round($majorSlope * 7, 1);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($divergence < 1.0) {
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'score' => 0.0,
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => 0.5,
|
|
||||||
'direction' => 'stable',
|
|
||||||
'detail' => 'Supermarkets and majors moving in sync.',
|
|
||||||
'data_points' => $rows->count(),
|
|
||||||
'enabled' => true,
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$leaderChange = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? $supermarketChange : $majorChange;
|
|
||||||
$direction = $leaderChange > 0 ? 'up' : 'down';
|
|
||||||
$leader = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? 'Supermarkets' : 'Majors';
|
|
||||||
$follower = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? 'majors' : 'supermarkets';
|
|
||||||
$leaderAbs = abs($leaderChange);
|
|
||||||
$followerChange = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? abs($majorChange) : abs($supermarketChange);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'score' => $direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0,
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => min(1.0, $divergence / 5.0),
|
|
||||||
'direction' => $direction,
|
|
||||||
'detail' => "{$leader} ".($leaderChange > 0 ? 'rose' : 'fell')." {$leaderAbs}p vs {$follower} {$followerChange}p (divergence: {$divergence}p). Expect {$follower} to follow.",
|
|
||||||
'data_points' => $rows->count(),
|
|
||||||
'enabled' => true,
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,80 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
final class DayOfWeekSignal extends AbstractSignal
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
private const int MIN_DAYS = 21;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$dowExpr = DbDialect::dayOfWeekExpr('price_effective_at');
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$rows = DB::table('station_prices')
|
|
||||||
->where('fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
|
|
||||||
->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(90))
|
|
||||||
->selectRaw("{$dowExpr} as dow, DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price")
|
|
||||||
->groupBy('dow', 'day')
|
|
||||||
->get();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$uniqueDays = $rows->pluck('day')->unique()->count();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($uniqueDays < self::MIN_DAYS) {
|
|
||||||
return $this->disabledSignal("Insufficient history for day-of-week pattern ({$uniqueDays} days, need ".self::MIN_DAYS.')');
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$dowAverages = $rows->groupBy('dow')->map(fn ($g) => $g->avg('avg_price'));
|
|
||||||
$weekAvg = $dowAverages->avg();
|
|
||||||
$todayDow = (int) now()->format('w') + 1; // PHP 0=Sun → MySQL 1=Sun
|
|
||||||
$todayAvg = $dowAverages->get($todayDow, $weekAvg);
|
|
||||||
$cheapestDow = $dowAverages->keys()->sortBy(fn ($k) => $dowAverages[$k])->first();
|
|
||||||
$dayNames = ['Sun', 'Mon', 'Tue', 'Wed', 'Thu', 'Fri', 'Sat'];
|
|
||||||
$todayName = $dayNames[($todayDow - 1) % 7] ?? 'Today';
|
|
||||||
$tomorrowName = $dayNames[$todayDow % 7] ?? 'Tomorrow';
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$todayDeltaPence = round(($todayAvg - $weekAvg) / 100, 1);
|
|
||||||
$tomorrowDeltaPence = round(($dowAverages->get(($todayDow % 7) + 1, $weekAvg) - $todayAvg) / 100, 1);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$direction = match (true) {
|
|
||||||
($todayAvg - $weekAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'up',
|
|
||||||
($weekAvg - $todayAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'down',
|
|
||||||
default => 'stable',
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$parts = [];
|
|
||||||
$parts[] = abs($todayDeltaPence) < 0.1
|
|
||||||
? "Today ({$todayName}) is typically in line with the weekly average."
|
|
||||||
: sprintf(
|
|
||||||
'Today (%s) is typically %sp %s the weekly average.',
|
|
||||||
$todayName,
|
|
||||||
number_format(abs($todayDeltaPence), 1),
|
|
||||||
$todayDeltaPence > 0 ? 'above' : 'below',
|
|
||||||
);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$parts[] = abs($tomorrowDeltaPence) < 0.1
|
|
||||||
? "Tomorrow ({$tomorrowName}) is typically the same."
|
|
||||||
: sprintf(
|
|
||||||
'Tomorrow (%s) is typically %sp %s.',
|
|
||||||
$tomorrowName,
|
|
||||||
number_format(abs($tomorrowDeltaPence), 1),
|
|
||||||
$tomorrowDeltaPence < 0 ? 'cheaper' : 'pricier',
|
|
||||||
);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($cheapestDow === $todayDow) {
|
|
||||||
$parts[] = 'Today is historically the cheapest day of the week.';
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'score' => $score,
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => min(1.0, $uniqueDays / 90),
|
|
||||||
'direction' => $direction,
|
|
||||||
'detail' => implode(' ', $parts),
|
|
||||||
'data_points' => $uniqueDays,
|
|
||||||
'enabled' => true,
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,40 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* SQL dialect helpers for the small set of MySQL/SQLite differences the
|
|
||||||
* signal classes care about. Centralises the isSqlite ternaries that were
|
|
||||||
* duplicated across DayOfWeekSignal and StickinessSignal.
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
final class DbDialect
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
private static function isSqlite(): bool
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite';
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Day-of-week expression returning 1=Sun..7=Sat (MySQL DAYOFWEEK convention).
|
|
||||||
* Targets a column on the queried table.
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
public static function dayOfWeekExpr(string $column): string
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return self::isSqlite()
|
|
||||||
? "(CAST(strftime('%w', {$column}) AS INTEGER) + 1)"
|
|
||||||
: "DAYOFWEEK({$column})";
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Whole-day difference between MAX and MIN of a datetime column, suitable
|
|
||||||
* for use in an aggregate selectRaw.
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
public static function maxMinDayDiffExpr(string $column): string
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return self::isSqlite()
|
|
||||||
? "CAST((julianday(MAX({$column})) - julianday(MIN({$column}))) AS INTEGER)"
|
|
||||||
: "DATEDIFF(MAX({$column}), MIN({$column}))";
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,63 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
final class OilSignal extends AbstractSignal
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Reads the most recent Brent crude prediction (LLM preferred, EWMA
|
|
||||||
* fallback) covering today or later. Sourced from price_predictions,
|
|
||||||
* which OilPriceService populates daily.
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$prediction = null;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
foreach (['llm_with_context', 'llm', 'ewma'] as $source) {
|
|
||||||
$prediction = DB::table('price_predictions')
|
|
||||||
->where('source', $source)
|
|
||||||
->where('predicted_for', '>=', now()->toDateString())
|
|
||||||
->orderByDesc('predicted_for')
|
|
||||||
->orderByDesc('generated_at')
|
|
||||||
->first();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($prediction !== null) {
|
|
||||||
break;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($prediction === null) {
|
|
||||||
return $this->disabledSignal('No oil price prediction available');
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$direction = match ($prediction->direction) {
|
|
||||||
'rising' => 'up',
|
|
||||||
'falling' => 'down',
|
|
||||||
default => 'stable',
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$score = match ($direction) {
|
|
||||||
'up' => 1.0,
|
|
||||||
'down' => -1.0,
|
|
||||||
default => 0.0,
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$confidence = round(((float) $prediction->confidence) / 100, 2);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'score' => $score,
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => $confidence,
|
|
||||||
'direction' => $direction,
|
|
||||||
'detail' => sprintf(
|
|
||||||
'Brent crude %s (%s, %d%% confidence)',
|
|
||||||
$prediction->direction,
|
|
||||||
$prediction->source,
|
|
||||||
(int) $prediction->confidence,
|
|
||||||
),
|
|
||||||
'data_points' => 1,
|
|
||||||
'enabled' => true,
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,52 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\HaversineQuery;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
final class RegionalMomentumSignal extends AbstractSignal
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
private const float SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE = 0.3;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
private const float REGIONAL_RADIUS_KM = 50.0;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
if (! $context->hasCoordinates()) {
|
|
||||||
return $this->disabledSignal('No coordinates provided for regional momentum analysis');
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
[$radiusSql, $radiusBindings] = HaversineQuery::withinKm($context->lat, $context->lng, self::REGIONAL_RADIUS_KM);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$rows = DB::table('station_prices')
|
|
||||||
->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
|
|
||||||
->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
|
|
||||||
->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(14))
|
|
||||||
->whereRaw($radiusSql, $radiusBindings)
|
|
||||||
->selectRaw('DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
|
|
||||||
->groupBy('day')
|
|
||||||
->orderBy('day')
|
|
||||||
->get();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($rows->count() < 3) {
|
|
||||||
return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient regional data');
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$regression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all());
|
|
||||||
$direction = match (true) {
|
|
||||||
$regression['slope'] >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
|
|
||||||
$regression['slope'] <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
|
|
||||||
default => 'stable',
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'score' => $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 0.7 : -0.7),
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => min(1.0, $regression['r_squared']),
|
|
||||||
'direction' => $direction,
|
|
||||||
'detail' => 'Regional trend: '.round($regression['slope'], 2).'p/day (R²='.round($regression['r_squared'], 2).')',
|
|
||||||
'data_points' => $rows->count(),
|
|
||||||
'enabled' => true,
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,24 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
interface Signal
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Evaluate the signal against the given context.
|
|
||||||
*
|
|
||||||
* Returns the canonical signal payload. Implementations may add extra
|
|
||||||
* keys beyond the base shape (e.g. trend adds slope + r_squared).
|
|
||||||
*
|
|
||||||
* @return array{
|
|
||||||
* score: float,
|
|
||||||
* confidence: float,
|
|
||||||
* direction: string,
|
|
||||||
* detail: string,
|
|
||||||
* data_points: int,
|
|
||||||
* enabled: bool,
|
|
||||||
* ...
|
|
||||||
* }
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
public function compute(SignalContext $context): array;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,24 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use App\Enums\FuelType;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/**
|
|
||||||
* Inputs required to evaluate a prediction signal. Individual signals may
|
|
||||||
* ignore fields they don't need — for example OilSignal doesn't use fuelType,
|
|
||||||
* RegionalMomentumSignal requires lat/lng to be non-null.
|
|
||||||
*/
|
|
||||||
final readonly class SignalContext
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
public function __construct(
|
|
||||||
public FuelType $fuelType,
|
|
||||||
public ?float $lat = null,
|
|
||||||
public ?float $lng = null,
|
|
||||||
) {}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
public function hasCoordinates(): bool
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return $this->lat !== null && $this->lng !== null;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,50 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
final class StickinessSignal extends AbstractSignal
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
$diffExpr = DbDialect::maxMinDayDiffExpr('price_effective_at');
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$rows = DB::table('station_prices')
|
|
||||||
->where('fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
|
|
||||||
->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(30))
|
|
||||||
->selectRaw("station_id, COUNT(*) as changes, {$diffExpr} as span_days")
|
|
||||||
->groupBy('station_id')
|
|
||||||
->having('changes', '>', 1)
|
|
||||||
->having('span_days', '>', 0)
|
|
||||||
->get();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($rows->count() < 10) {
|
|
||||||
return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient stickiness data (need 10+ stations with price history)');
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$avgHoldDays = $rows->avg(fn ($r) => $r->span_days / ($r->changes - 1));
|
|
||||||
$avgHoldDays = round((float) $avgHoldDays, 1);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$score = match (true) {
|
|
||||||
$avgHoldDays < 2 => -0.1,
|
|
||||||
$avgHoldDays > 5 => 0.1,
|
|
||||||
default => 0.0,
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$detail = match (true) {
|
|
||||||
$avgHoldDays < 2 => "Volatile prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — harder to predict.",
|
|
||||||
$avgHoldDays > 5 => "Sticky prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — more predictable.",
|
|
||||||
default => "Normal hold period (avg: {$avgHoldDays} days).",
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'score' => $score,
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => min(1.0, $rows->count() / 200),
|
|
||||||
'direction' => 'stable',
|
|
||||||
'detail' => $detail,
|
|
||||||
'data_points' => $rows->count(),
|
|
||||||
'enabled' => true,
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,86 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
final class TrendSignal extends AbstractSignal
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
private const float R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD = 0.5;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
private const float SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE = 0.3;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
private const float SLOPE_SATURATION_PENCE = 0.5;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
private const int PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS = 7;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/** @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool, slope: float, r_squared: float} */
|
|
||||||
public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
foreach ([5, 14] as $lookbackDays) {
|
|
||||||
$rows = DB::table('station_prices')
|
|
||||||
->where('fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
|
|
||||||
->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays($lookbackDays))
|
|
||||||
->selectRaw('DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price')
|
|
||||||
->groupBy('day')
|
|
||||||
->orderBy('day')
|
|
||||||
->get();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($rows->count() < 2) {
|
|
||||||
continue;
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$regression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all());
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($regression['r_squared'] >= self::R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD) {
|
|
||||||
$slope = $regression['slope'];
|
|
||||||
$direction = match (true) {
|
|
||||||
$slope >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
|
|
||||||
$slope <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
|
|
||||||
default => 'stable',
|
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
$absSlope = abs($slope);
|
|
||||||
$score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : min(1.0, $absSlope / self::SLOPE_SATURATION_PENCE) * ($slope > 0 ? 1 : -1);
|
|
||||||
$projected = round($slope * $lookbackDays, 1);
|
|
||||||
$detail = $direction === 'stable'
|
|
||||||
? "Prices flat over {$lookbackDays} days (slope: {$slope}p/day, R²={$regression['r_squared']})"
|
|
||||||
: sprintf(
|
|
||||||
'%s at %sp/day over %d days (R²=%s, ~%s%sp in %dd)',
|
|
||||||
$slope > 0 ? 'Rising' : 'Falling',
|
|
||||||
abs(round($slope, 2)),
|
|
||||||
$lookbackDays,
|
|
||||||
round($regression['r_squared'], 2),
|
|
||||||
$projected > 0 ? '+' : '',
|
|
||||||
$projected,
|
|
||||||
self::PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS,
|
|
||||||
);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($lookbackDays === 5) {
|
|
||||||
$detail .= ' [Adaptive lookback active]';
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'score' => $score,
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => min(1.0, $regression['r_squared']),
|
|
||||||
'direction' => $direction,
|
|
||||||
'detail' => $detail,
|
|
||||||
'data_points' => $rows->count(),
|
|
||||||
'enabled' => true,
|
|
||||||
'slope' => round($slope, 3),
|
|
||||||
'r_squared' => round($regression['r_squared'], 3),
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'score' => 0.0,
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => 0.0,
|
|
||||||
'direction' => 'stable',
|
|
||||||
'detail' => 'Insufficient price history or noisy data (R² below threshold)',
|
|
||||||
'data_points' => 0,
|
|
||||||
'enabled' => false,
|
|
||||||
'slope' => 0.0,
|
|
||||||
'r_squared' => 0.0,
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,34 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
namespace Database\Factories;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
|
|
||||||
use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\PricePrediction;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\Factory;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
/** @extends Factory<PricePrediction> */
|
|
||||||
class PricePredictionFactory extends Factory
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
public function definition(): array
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return [
|
|
||||||
'predicted_for' => fake()->dateTimeBetween('-30 days')->format('Y-m-d'),
|
|
||||||
'source' => fake()->randomElement(PredictionSource::cases()),
|
|
||||||
'direction' => fake()->randomElement(TrendDirection::cases()),
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => fake()->numberBetween(40, 85),
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => fake()->sentence(12),
|
|
||||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
|
||||||
];
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
public function llm(): static
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return $this->state(['source' => PredictionSource::Llm]);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
public function ewma(): static
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return $this->state(['source' => PredictionSource::Ewma]);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
|
|||||||
|
<?php
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
use Illuminate\Database\Migrations\Migration;
|
||||||
|
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schema;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
return new class extends Migration
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
/**
|
||||||
|
* Retire the legacy oil-prediction pipeline. The new forecasting
|
||||||
|
* stack writes to `weekly_forecasts` (Layer 1 ridge) and
|
||||||
|
* `llm_overlays` (Layer 4 LLM news scan) instead. Per
|
||||||
|
* `docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md`
|
||||||
|
* this table and its associated services were due for removal at
|
||||||
|
* the end of Phase 4.
|
||||||
|
*/
|
||||||
|
public function up(): void
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
Schema::dropIfExists('price_predictions');
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
/**
|
||||||
|
* Re-creating the dropped table is not supported — the legacy
|
||||||
|
* services that populated it have been deleted along with the
|
||||||
|
* table. To restore, revert the prediction-rebuild commits.
|
||||||
|
*/
|
||||||
|
public function down(): void
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
// intentionally empty; see docblock above
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
@@ -1,27 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use App\Filament\Resources\OilPredictionResource\Pages\ListOilPredictions;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\PricePrediction;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\User;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
|
|
||||||
use Livewire\Livewire;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
beforeEach(function () {
|
|
||||||
$this->admin = User::factory()->admin()->create();
|
|
||||||
$this->actingAs($this->admin);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('renders the oil prediction list', function () {
|
|
||||||
$predictions = PricePrediction::factory()->count(3)->create();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Livewire::test(ListOilPredictions::class)
|
|
||||||
->assertOk()
|
|
||||||
->assertCanSeeTableRecords($predictions);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('has a run prediction header action', function () {
|
|
||||||
Livewire::test(ListOilPredictions::class)
|
|
||||||
->assertActionExists('runPrediction');
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
@@ -2,10 +2,11 @@
|
|||||||
|
|
||||||
use App\Filament\Widgets\StatsOverviewWidget;
|
use App\Filament\Widgets\StatsOverviewWidget;
|
||||||
use App\Models\ApiLog;
|
use App\Models\ApiLog;
|
||||||
use App\Models\PricePrediction;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\Station;
|
use App\Models\Station;
|
||||||
use App\Models\User;
|
use App\Models\User;
|
||||||
|
use Carbon\Carbon;
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
|
use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
|
||||||
|
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
|
||||||
use Livewire\Livewire;
|
use Livewire\Livewire;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
|
uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
|
||||||
@@ -18,7 +19,20 @@ beforeEach(function () {
|
|||||||
it('renders the stats overview widget', function () {
|
it('renders the stats overview widget', function () {
|
||||||
User::factory()->count(3)->create();
|
User::factory()->count(3)->create();
|
||||||
Station::factory()->count(2)->create();
|
Station::factory()->count(2)->create();
|
||||||
PricePrediction::factory()->create(['generated_at' => now()->subHours(2)]);
|
|
||||||
|
DB::table('weekly_forecasts')->insert([
|
||||||
|
'forecast_for' => now()->next(Carbon::MONDAY)->toDateString(),
|
||||||
|
'model_version' => 'ridge-v1-test',
|
||||||
|
'direction' => 'rising',
|
||||||
|
'magnitude_pence' => 80,
|
||||||
|
'ridge_confidence' => 65,
|
||||||
|
'flagged_duty_change' => false,
|
||||||
|
'reasoning' => 'test',
|
||||||
|
'generated_at' => now()->subHours(2),
|
||||||
|
'created_at' => now(),
|
||||||
|
'updated_at' => now(),
|
||||||
|
]);
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
ApiLog::factory()->count(2)->create(['status_code' => 200, 'error' => null, 'created_at' => now()->subMinutes(30)]);
|
ApiLog::factory()->count(2)->create(['status_code' => 200, 'error' => null, 'created_at' => now()->subMinutes(30)]);
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Livewire::test(StatsOverviewWidget::class)
|
Livewire::test(StatsOverviewWidget::class)
|
||||||
|
|||||||
@@ -1,145 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
|
|
||||||
use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\BrentPrice;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\PricePrediction;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\BrentPricePredictor;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\LlmPrediction\OilPredictionProvider;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
beforeEach(function (): void {
|
|
||||||
$this->provider = Mockery::mock(OilPredictionProvider::class);
|
|
||||||
$this->predictor = new BrentPricePredictor($this->provider);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('detects a rising trend when 3-day EWMA exceeds 7-day EWMA by threshold', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
$prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
|
|
||||||
'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'price_usd' => 70.0 + ($i * 2.0),
|
|
||||||
]));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$prediction = $this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising)
|
|
||||||
->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma)
|
|
||||||
->and($prediction->confidence)->toBeGreaterThan(0)
|
|
||||||
->and($prediction->confidence)->toBeLessThanOrEqual(65);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('detects a falling trend when 3-day EWMA falls below 7-day EWMA by threshold', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
$prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
|
|
||||||
'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'price_usd' => 85.0 - ($i * 2.0),
|
|
||||||
]));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$prediction = $this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('returns flat when price movement is within threshold', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
$prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
|
|
||||||
'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'price_usd' => 75.0 + (($i % 2 === 0) ? 0.1 : -0.1),
|
|
||||||
]));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$prediction = $this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Flat)
|
|
||||||
->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(50);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('returns null when fewer than 14 prices are available for EWMA', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
$prices = collect(range(1, 10))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
|
|
||||||
'date' => now()->subDays(10 - $i)->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'price_usd' => 75.0,
|
|
||||||
]));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices))->toBeNull();
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('stores only the LLM prediction when the provider succeeds', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
seedPrices(20);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn(new PricePrediction([
|
|
||||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'source' => PredictionSource::LlmWithContext,
|
|
||||||
'direction' => TrendDirection::Rising,
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => 70,
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => 'Trend is up.',
|
|
||||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
|
||||||
]));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$prediction = $this->predictor->generatePrediction();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::LlmWithContext)
|
|
||||||
->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1)
|
|
||||||
->and(PricePrediction::where('source', PredictionSource::Ewma)->count())->toBe(0);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('falls back to EWMA when provider returns null', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
seedPrices(20, slope: 0.8);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn(null);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$prediction = $this->predictor->generatePrediction();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma)
|
|
||||||
->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('returns null when there is insufficient price data', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
BrentPrice::insert([
|
|
||||||
['date' => now()->subDays(2)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0],
|
|
||||||
['date' => now()->subDay()->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 76.0],
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$this->provider->shouldNotReceive('predict');
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($this->predictor->generatePrediction())->toBeNull()
|
|
||||||
->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(0);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('flags latest brent price as prediction generated on success', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
seedPrices(20);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn(null);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$this->predictor->generatePrediction();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$latest = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->first();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($latest->prediction_generated_at)->not->toBeNull();
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('does not flag when prediction cannot be generated', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
BrentPrice::insert([
|
|
||||||
['date' => now()->subDay()->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0],
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$this->provider->shouldNotReceive('predict');
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$this->predictor->generatePrediction();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect(BrentPrice::first()->prediction_generated_at)->toBeNull();
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('returns the latest price row', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
seedPrices(3);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($this->predictor->latestPrice())->not->toBeNull()
|
|
||||||
->and($this->predictor->latestPrice()->date->toDateString())->toBe(now()->toDateString());
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
function seedPrices(int $count, float $slope = 1.0): void
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
BrentPrice::insert(
|
|
||||||
collect(range(1, $count))->map(fn (int $i) => [
|
|
||||||
'date' => now()->subDays($count - $i)->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'price_usd' => 75.0 + ($i * $slope),
|
|
||||||
])->all()
|
|
||||||
);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,219 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
|
|
||||||
use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\BrentPrice;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\ApiLogger;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\LlmPrediction\AnthropicPredictionProvider;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
beforeEach(function (): void {
|
|
||||||
Http::preventStrayRequests();
|
|
||||||
config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
|
|
||||||
$this->provider = new AnthropicPredictionProvider(new ApiLogger);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('returns null when api key is not configured', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => null]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$prices = fakePrices(14);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($this->provider->predict($prices))->toBeNull();
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('uses submit_prediction tool in the basic request', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
Http::fake([
|
|
||||||
'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
|
|
||||||
'stop_reason' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'content' => [[
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'name' => 'submit_prediction',
|
|
||||||
'input' => ['direction' => 'rising', 'confidence' => 72, 'reasoning' => 'Prices rising.'],
|
|
||||||
]],
|
|
||||||
]),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
// context request fails, falls back to basic
|
|
||||||
Http::fake([
|
|
||||||
'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
|
|
||||||
->push([], 500)
|
|
||||||
->push([
|
|
||||||
'stop_reason' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'content' => [[
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'name' => 'submit_prediction',
|
|
||||||
'input' => ['direction' => 'rising', 'confidence' => 72, 'reasoning' => 'Prices rising.'],
|
|
||||||
]],
|
|
||||||
]),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$this->provider->predict(fakePrices(14));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
|
|
||||||
$tools = $request->data()['tools'] ?? [];
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return collect($tools)->contains(fn ($t) => $t['name'] === 'submit_prediction');
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('returns a prediction with Llm source from basic tool use', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
Http::fake([
|
|
||||||
'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
|
|
||||||
->push([], 500) // context fails
|
|
||||||
->push([
|
|
||||||
'stop_reason' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'content' => [[
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'name' => 'submit_prediction',
|
|
||||||
'input' => ['direction' => 'rising', 'confidence' => 72, 'reasoning' => 'Consistent upward trend.'],
|
|
||||||
]],
|
|
||||||
]),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$prediction = $this->provider->predict(fakePrices(14));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising)
|
|
||||||
->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Llm)
|
|
||||||
->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(72)
|
|
||||||
->and($prediction->reasoning)->toBe('Consistent upward trend.');
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('caps confidence at 85', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
Http::fake([
|
|
||||||
'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
|
|
||||||
->push([], 500)
|
|
||||||
->push([
|
|
||||||
'stop_reason' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'content' => [[
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'name' => 'submit_prediction',
|
|
||||||
'input' => ['direction' => 'falling', 'confidence' => 99, 'reasoning' => 'Very confident.'],
|
|
||||||
]],
|
|
||||||
]),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$prediction = $this->provider->predict(fakePrices(14));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($prediction->confidence)->toBe(85);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('returns null when tool_use block is missing from response', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
Http::fake([
|
|
||||||
'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
|
|
||||||
->push([], 500)
|
|
||||||
->push([
|
|
||||||
'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
|
|
||||||
'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => 'Sorry, I cannot help.']],
|
|
||||||
]),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($this->provider->predict(fakePrices(14)))->toBeNull();
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('sends web_search tool during context prediction phase', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
Http::fake([
|
|
||||||
'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
|
|
||||||
->push([
|
|
||||||
'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
|
|
||||||
'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => 'Searched and analysed.']],
|
|
||||||
])
|
|
||||||
->push([
|
|
||||||
'stop_reason' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'content' => [[
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'name' => 'submit_prediction',
|
|
||||||
'input' => ['direction' => 'flat', 'confidence' => 50, 'reasoning' => 'No clear trend.'],
|
|
||||||
]],
|
|
||||||
]),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$this->provider->predict(fakePrices(20));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
|
|
||||||
$tools = $request->data()['tools'] ?? [];
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return collect($tools)->contains(fn ($t) => ($t['type'] ?? '') === 'web_search_20250305');
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('returns LlmWithContext source when context prediction succeeds', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
Http::fake([
|
|
||||||
'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
|
|
||||||
->push([
|
|
||||||
'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
|
|
||||||
'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => 'Analysed news.']],
|
|
||||||
])
|
|
||||||
->push([
|
|
||||||
'stop_reason' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'content' => [[
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'name' => 'submit_prediction',
|
|
||||||
'input' => ['direction' => 'rising', 'confidence' => 70, 'reasoning' => 'OPEC+ cuts support prices.'],
|
|
||||||
]],
|
|
||||||
]),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$prediction = $this->provider->predict(fakePrices(20));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::LlmWithContext)
|
|
||||||
->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('continues on pause_turn during web search phase', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
Http::fake([
|
|
||||||
'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
|
|
||||||
->push([
|
|
||||||
'stop_reason' => 'pause_turn',
|
|
||||||
'content' => [['type' => 'server_tool_use', 'name' => 'web_search', 'input' => ['query' => 'Brent crude']]],
|
|
||||||
])
|
|
||||||
->push([
|
|
||||||
'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
|
|
||||||
'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => 'Done searching.']],
|
|
||||||
])
|
|
||||||
->push([
|
|
||||||
'stop_reason' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'content' => [[
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'name' => 'submit_prediction',
|
|
||||||
'input' => ['direction' => 'falling', 'confidence' => 60, 'reasoning' => 'Demand fears.'],
|
|
||||||
]],
|
|
||||||
]),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$prediction = $this->provider->predict(fakePrices(20));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
|
|
||||||
->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Http::assertSentCount(3);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('falls back to basic prediction when context phase fails', function (): void {
|
|
||||||
Http::fake([
|
|
||||||
'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
|
|
||||||
->push([], 500) // context search fails
|
|
||||||
->push([
|
|
||||||
'stop_reason' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'content' => [[
|
|
||||||
'type' => 'tool_use',
|
|
||||||
'name' => 'submit_prediction',
|
|
||||||
'input' => ['direction' => 'rising', 'confidence' => 65, 'reasoning' => 'Rising trend.'],
|
|
||||||
]],
|
|
||||||
]),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$prediction = $this->provider->predict(fakePrices(14));
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Llm);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
// --- helpers ---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
function fakePrices(int $count): Collection
|
|
||||||
{
|
|
||||||
return collect(range(1, $count))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
|
|
||||||
'date' => now()->subDays($count - $i)->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'price_usd' => 75.0 + $i,
|
|
||||||
]));
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
@@ -1,394 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
<?php
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
use App\Enums\FuelType;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\Station;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\StationPrice;
|
|
||||||
use App\Models\StationPriceCurrent;
|
|
||||||
use App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
|
|
||||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('returns no_signal when there is insufficient price history', function () {
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('stable')
|
|
||||||
->and($result['signals']['trend']['enabled'])->toBeFalse()
|
|
||||||
->and($result['action'])->toBe('no_signal');
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('detects rising trend from consistently increasing daily averages', function () {
|
|
||||||
$station = Station::factory()->create();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
// 7 days of prices rising at ~100 pence/day
|
|
||||||
for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
|
|
||||||
StationPrice::factory()->create([
|
|
||||||
'station_id' => $station->node_id,
|
|
||||||
'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
|
|
||||||
'price_pence' => 14000 + ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100),
|
|
||||||
'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($result['signals']['trend']['direction'])->toBe('up')
|
|
||||||
->and($result['signals']['trend']['enabled'])->toBeTrue()
|
|
||||||
->and($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('up')
|
|
||||||
->and($result['action'])->toBe('fill_now');
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('detects falling trend from consistently decreasing daily averages', function () {
|
|
||||||
$station = Station::factory()->create();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
|
|
||||||
StationPrice::factory()->create([
|
|
||||||
'station_id' => $station->node_id,
|
|
||||||
'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
|
|
||||||
'price_pence' => 16000 - ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100),
|
|
||||||
'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($result['signals']['trend']['direction'])->toBe('down')
|
|
||||||
->and($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('down')
|
|
||||||
->and($result['action'])->toBe('wait');
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('returns current_avg from station_prices_current', function () {
|
|
||||||
$station = Station::factory()->create();
|
|
||||||
StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create([
|
|
||||||
'station_id' => $station->node_id,
|
|
||||||
'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
|
|
||||||
'price_pence' => 14750,
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($result['current_avg'])->toBe(147.5);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('includes all required keys in response', function () {
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($result)
|
|
||||||
->toHaveKeys([
|
|
||||||
'fuel_type', 'current_avg', 'predicted_direction', 'predicted_change_pence',
|
|
||||||
'confidence_score', 'confidence_label', 'action', 'reasoning',
|
|
||||||
'prediction_horizon_days', 'region_key', 'methodology',
|
|
||||||
'weekly_summary', 'signals',
|
|
||||||
])
|
|
||||||
->and($result['signals'])->toHaveKeys([
|
|
||||||
'trend', 'day_of_week', 'brand_behaviour',
|
|
||||||
'national_momentum', 'regional_momentum', 'price_stickiness', 'oil',
|
|
||||||
])
|
|
||||||
->and($result['weekly_summary'])->toHaveKeys([
|
|
||||||
'yesterday_avg', 'today_avg', 'tomorrow_estimated_avg',
|
|
||||||
'yesterday_today_delta_pence', 'last_7_days_series',
|
|
||||||
'last_7_days_change_pence', 'cheapest_day', 'priciest_day', 'is_regional',
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('weekly_summary returns null prices and empty series when there is no data', function () {
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
$weekly = $result['weekly_summary'];
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($weekly['yesterday_avg'])->toBeNull()
|
|
||||||
->and($weekly['yesterday_today_delta_pence'])->toBeNull()
|
|
||||||
->and($weekly['last_7_days_series'])->toBe([])
|
|
||||||
->and($weekly['cheapest_day'])->toBeNull()
|
|
||||||
->and($weekly['priciest_day'])->toBeNull()
|
|
||||||
->and($weekly['is_regional'])->toBeFalse();
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('weekly_summary populates yesterday avg, today avg and 7-day series from station_prices', function () {
|
|
||||||
$station = Station::factory()->create();
|
|
||||||
StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create([
|
|
||||||
'station_id' => $station->node_id,
|
|
||||||
'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
|
|
||||||
'price_pence' => 14000,
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
|
|
||||||
StationPrice::factory()->create([
|
|
||||||
'station_id' => $station->node_id,
|
|
||||||
'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
|
|
||||||
'price_pence' => 14000 + ($daysAgo * 50),
|
|
||||||
'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
$weekly = $result['weekly_summary'];
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($weekly['yesterday_avg'])->toBe(140.5)
|
|
||||||
->and($weekly['today_avg'])->toBe(140.0)
|
|
||||||
->and($weekly['yesterday_today_delta_pence'])->toBe(-0.5)
|
|
||||||
->and(count($weekly['last_7_days_series']))->toBe(7)
|
|
||||||
->and($weekly['cheapest_day']['avg'])->toBe(140.0)
|
|
||||||
->and($weekly['priciest_day']['avg'])->toBe(143.0);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('weekly_summary falls back from regional to national when regional data is empty', function () {
|
|
||||||
$station = Station::factory()->create(['lat' => 51.5, 'lng' => -0.1]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
|
|
||||||
StationPrice::factory()->create([
|
|
||||||
'station_id' => $station->node_id,
|
|
||||||
'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
|
|
||||||
'price_pence' => 14000,
|
|
||||||
'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
// Coordinates 600+ km away from any station — no regional data available.
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(58.0, -3.0);
|
|
||||||
$weekly = $result['weekly_summary'];
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($weekly['is_regional'])->toBeFalse()
|
|
||||||
->and(count($weekly['last_7_days_series']))->toBe(7);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('weekly_summary marks is_regional true when stations exist within 50km of coordinates', function () {
|
|
||||||
$station = Station::factory()->create(['lat' => 51.5, 'lng' => -0.1]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
|
|
||||||
StationPrice::factory()->create([
|
|
||||||
'station_id' => $station->node_id,
|
|
||||||
'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
|
|
||||||
'price_pence' => 14000,
|
|
||||||
'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(51.5074, -0.1278);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($result['weekly_summary']['is_regional'])->toBeTrue();
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('always returns e10 as fuel_type', function () {
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($result['fuel_type'])->toBe('e10');
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('returns national region_key without coordinates', function () {
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($result['region_key'])->toBe('national');
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('returns regional region_key when coordinates are provided', function () {
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(51.5074, -0.1278);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($result['region_key'])->toBe('regional');
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('enables regional_momentum signal when coordinates are provided', function () {
|
|
||||||
$station = Station::factory()->create(['lat' => 51.5, 'lng' => -0.1]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
|
|
||||||
StationPrice::factory()->create([
|
|
||||||
'station_id' => $station->node_id,
|
|
||||||
'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
|
|
||||||
'price_pence' => 14000 + ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100),
|
|
||||||
'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(51.5074, -0.1278);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($result['signals']['regional_momentum']['enabled'])->toBeTrue();
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('disables regional_momentum signal without coordinates', function () {
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($result['signals']['regional_momentum']['enabled'])->toBeFalse();
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('disables trend signal when r_squared is below 0.5', function () {
|
|
||||||
$station = Station::factory()->create();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
// Highly erratic prices (zigzag pattern) — low R²
|
|
||||||
$prices = [14000, 16000, 13000, 17000, 12000, 18000, 14500];
|
|
||||||
foreach ($prices as $daysAgo => $price) {
|
|
||||||
StationPrice::factory()->create([
|
|
||||||
'station_id' => $station->node_id,
|
|
||||||
'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
|
|
||||||
'price_pence' => $price,
|
|
||||||
'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays(count($prices) - 1 - $daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
// Trend signal may be disabled if both 5-day and 14-day lookbacks fail R² threshold
|
|
||||||
expect($result['signals']['trend']['data_points'])->toBeInt();
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('oil signal is disabled when no price_predictions row covers today or later', function () {
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($result['signals']['oil']['enabled'])->toBeFalse();
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('oil signal picks up an llm prediction over an ewma one for the same date', function () {
|
|
||||||
DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([
|
|
||||||
[
|
|
||||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'source' => 'ewma',
|
|
||||||
'direction' => 'flat',
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => 60,
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => null,
|
|
||||||
'generated_at' => now()->subHour(),
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
[
|
|
||||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'source' => 'llm',
|
|
||||||
'direction' => 'rising',
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => 75,
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => 'OPEC cut',
|
|
||||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$oil = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict()['signals']['oil'];
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($oil['enabled'])->toBeTrue()
|
|
||||||
->and($oil['direction'])->toBe('up')
|
|
||||||
->and($oil['score'])->toBe(1.0)
|
|
||||||
->and($oil['confidence'])->toBe(0.75);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('oil signal prefers llm_with_context over plain llm', function () {
|
|
||||||
DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([
|
|
||||||
[
|
|
||||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'source' => 'llm',
|
|
||||||
'direction' => 'falling',
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => 70,
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => 'baseline',
|
|
||||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
[
|
|
||||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'source' => 'llm_with_context',
|
|
||||||
'direction' => 'rising',
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => 82,
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => 'with context',
|
|
||||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
|
||||||
],
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$oil = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict()['signals']['oil'];
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($oil['direction'])->toBe('up')
|
|
||||||
->and($oil['confidence'])->toBe(0.82);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('confidence reaches "high" when trend and oil agree strongly', function () {
|
|
||||||
$station = Station::factory()->create();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
// Strong falling trend over 7 days, ~1p/day
|
|
||||||
for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
|
|
||||||
StationPrice::factory()->create([
|
|
||||||
'station_id' => $station->node_id,
|
|
||||||
'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
|
|
||||||
'price_pence' => 15000 - ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100),
|
|
||||||
'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([
|
|
||||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'source' => 'llm',
|
|
||||||
'direction' => 'falling',
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => 80,
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => 'agree',
|
|
||||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('down')
|
|
||||||
->and($result['confidence_score'])->toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(70)
|
|
||||||
->and($result['confidence_label'])->toBe('high');
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('confidence drops when trend and oil disagree', function () {
|
|
||||||
$station = Station::factory()->create();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
// Strong falling trend
|
|
||||||
for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
|
|
||||||
StationPrice::factory()->create([
|
|
||||||
'station_id' => $station->node_id,
|
|
||||||
'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
|
|
||||||
'price_pence' => 15000 - ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100),
|
|
||||||
'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
// Oil disagrees: rising
|
|
||||||
DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([
|
|
||||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'source' => 'llm',
|
|
||||||
'direction' => 'rising',
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => 80,
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => 'opec',
|
|
||||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$agree = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
// Replace oil with one that agrees instead — confidence should be higher
|
|
||||||
DB::table('price_predictions')->update([
|
|
||||||
'direction' => 'falling',
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$disagreeReplaced = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($agree['confidence_score'])->toBeLessThan($disagreeReplaced['confidence_score']);
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('day-of-week signal activates at 21 days of history (no longer 56)', function () {
|
|
||||||
$station = Station::factory()->create();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
for ($daysAgo = 25; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
|
|
||||||
StationPrice::factory()->create([
|
|
||||||
'station_id' => $station->node_id,
|
|
||||||
'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
|
|
||||||
'price_pence' => 14000 + ($daysAgo % 7) * 50,
|
|
||||||
'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
expect($result['signals']['day_of_week']['enabled'])->toBeTrue();
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
it('reasoning fallback for the wait action does not say "fill up"', function () {
|
|
||||||
// No data → trend disabled, brand disabled, oil disabled.
|
|
||||||
// Force a "down" direction by injecting an oil prediction that points down with low confidence.
|
|
||||||
DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([
|
|
||||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
|
||||||
'source' => 'ewma',
|
|
||||||
'direction' => 'falling',
|
|
||||||
'confidence' => 50,
|
|
||||||
'reasoning' => null,
|
|
||||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
|
||||||
]);
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if ($result['action'] === 'wait') {
|
|
||||||
expect($result['reasoning'])->not->toContain('fill up at the cheapest');
|
|
||||||
} else {
|
|
||||||
// If thresholds keep this at no_signal, still verify action-aware fallback exists
|
|
||||||
expect($result['reasoning'])->toBeString();
|
|
||||||
}
|
|
||||||
});
|
|
||||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user