feat(admin): add Filament resources for the forecasting stack

Adds three resources under a new "Forecasting" navigation group: a full-CRUD
WatchedEventResource for the Layer 5 volatility detector, plus read-only
WeeklyForecastResource and BacktestResource so the ridge model output and
its calibration can be inspected without SQL.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/Feature/Admin/BacktestResourceTest.php

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+<?php
+
+use App\Filament\Resources\Backtests\BacktestResource;
+use App\Filament\Resources\Backtests\Pages\ListBacktests;
+use App\Filament\Resources\Backtests\Pages\ViewBacktest;
+use App\Models\Backtest;
+use App\Models\User;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
+use Livewire\Livewire;
+
+uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
+
+beforeEach(function () {
+    $this->admin = User::factory()->admin()->create();
+    $this->actingAs($this->admin);
+});
+
+it('lists backtests', function () {
+    $backtests = Backtest::factory()->count(3)->create();
+
+    Livewire::test(ListBacktests::class)
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertCanSeeTableRecords($backtests);
+});
+
+it('shows the calibration table on the view page', function () {
+    $backtest = Backtest::factory()->create([
+        'calibration_table' => [
+            '0.0-0.5' => 0.55,
+            '0.5-1.0' => 0.65,
+            '1.0+' => 0.72,
+        ],
+    ]);
+
+    Livewire::test(ViewBacktest::class, ['record' => $backtest->id])
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertSee('0.0-0.5')
+        ->assertSee('55%')
+        ->assertSee('1.0+')
+        ->assertSee('72%');
+});
+
+it('disables create and edit', function () {
+    $backtest = Backtest::factory()->create();
+
+    expect(BacktestResource::canCreate())->toBeFalse()
+        ->and(BacktestResource::canEdit($backtest))->toBeFalse()
+        ->and(BacktestResource::canDelete($backtest))->toBeFalse();
+});
+
+it('filters backtests below the ship gate', function () {
+    $shippable = Backtest::factory()->create(['directional_accuracy' => 65.00]);
+    $marginal = Backtest::factory()->create(['directional_accuracy' => 58.00]);
+
+    Livewire::test(ListBacktests::class)
+        ->filterTable('below_ship_gate')
+        ->assertCanSeeTableRecords([$marginal])
+        ->assertCanNotSeeTableRecords([$shippable]);
+});

tests/Feature/Admin/WatchedEventResourceTest.php

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+<?php
+
+use App\Filament\Resources\WatchedEvents\Pages\CreateWatchedEvent;
+use App\Filament\Resources\WatchedEvents\Pages\ListWatchedEvents;
+use App\Models\User;
+use App\Models\WatchedEvent;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
+use Livewire\Livewire;
+
+uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
+
+beforeEach(function () {
+    $this->admin = User::factory()->admin()->create();
+    $this->actingAs($this->admin);
+});
+
+it('lists watched events', function () {
+    $events = WatchedEvent::factory()->count(3)->create();
+
+    Livewire::test(ListWatchedEvents::class)
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertCanSeeTableRecords($events);
+});
+
+it('creates a watched event from the form', function () {
+    Livewire::test(CreateWatchedEvent::class)
+        ->fillForm([
+            'label' => 'Iran tensions Apr–May 2026',
+            'starts_at' => '2026-04-01 00:00:00',
+            'ends_at' => '2026-05-31 23:59:00',
+            'notes' => 'Geopolitical event affecting Brent crude.',
+        ])
+        ->call('create')
+        ->assertHasNoFormErrors();
+
+    expect(WatchedEvent::where('label', 'Iran tensions Apr–May 2026')->exists())->toBeTrue();
+});
+
+it('validates ends_at is after starts_at', function () {
+    Livewire::test(CreateWatchedEvent::class)
+        ->fillForm([
+            'label' => 'Bad dates',
+            'starts_at' => '2026-05-01 00:00:00',
+            'ends_at' => '2026-04-01 00:00:00',
+        ])
+        ->call('create')
+        ->assertHasFormErrors(['ends_at']);
+});
+
+it('filters to currently active events', function () {
+    $active = WatchedEvent::factory()->active()->create(['label' => 'Active event']);
+    $inactive = WatchedEvent::factory()->inactive()->create(['label' => 'Inactive event']);
+
+    Livewire::test(ListWatchedEvents::class)
+        ->filterTable('currently_active')
+        ->assertCanSeeTableRecords([$active])
+        ->assertCanNotSeeTableRecords([$inactive]);
+});

tests/Feature/Admin/WeeklyForecastResourceTest.php

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+<?php
+
+use App\Filament\Resources\WeeklyForecasts\Pages\ListWeeklyForecasts;
+use App\Filament\Resources\WeeklyForecasts\Pages\ViewWeeklyForecast;
+use App\Filament\Resources\WeeklyForecasts\WeeklyForecastResource;
+use App\Models\User;
+use App\Models\WeeklyForecast;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
+use Livewire\Livewire;
+
+uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
+
+beforeEach(function () {
+    $this->admin = User::factory()->admin()->create();
+    $this->actingAs($this->admin);
+});
+
+it('lists weekly forecasts sorted by forecast_for desc', function () {
+    $older = WeeklyForecast::factory()->create(['forecast_for' => '2026-04-06']);
+    $newer = WeeklyForecast::factory()->create(['forecast_for' => '2026-05-04']);
+
+    Livewire::test(ListWeeklyForecasts::class)
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertCanSeeTableRecords([$newer, $older], inOrder: true);
+});
+
+it('disables create and edit', function () {
+    $forecast = WeeklyForecast::factory()->create();
+
+    expect(WeeklyForecastResource::canCreate())->toBeFalse();
+    expect(WeeklyForecastResource::canEdit($forecast))->toBeFalse();
+    expect(WeeklyForecastResource::canDelete($forecast))->toBeFalse();
+});
+
+it('renders the view page for a forecast', function () {
+    $forecast = WeeklyForecast::factory()->create([
+        'reasoning' => 'Brent stabilising; supermarket cycle entering bottom.',
+    ]);
+
+    Livewire::test(ViewWeeklyForecast::class, ['record' => $forecast->id])
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertSee('Brent stabilising; supermarket cycle entering bottom.');
+});