The daily forecast:llm-overlay command was being skipped because the previous
single-conversation flow consumed more than Tier-1's 50,000 input-tokens-per-
minute Anthropic bucket. The web_search tool auto-caches its results (~55k
tokens) and requires `encrypted_content` intact when those blocks are resent,
so the prior retry-on-missing-citations path either 429'd or 400'd on the
second call.
LlmOverlayService now runs two independent API calls. Phase 1 invokes the
web_search tool and we discard the transcript after harvesting the URLs +
titles from the returned web_search_tool_result blocks. Phase 2 is a fresh
conversation containing the forecast context and the harvested headlines as
plain text, with a forced submit_overlay tool call. events_cited is now
optional in the tool schema — Haiku's flaky compliance no longer matters
because citations come from the search results, not the model's transcription.
Model-tagged events (with directional impact) merge with harvested-only
entries (impact: 'neutral'), deduped by URL.
Between phases the service reads anthropic-ratelimit-input-tokens-remaining /
…-reset from Phase 1's headers and sleeps proportionally — only long enough
for the SUBMIT_TOKEN_BUDGET worth of refill, not for the full bucket reset,
capped at 65 seconds.
ApiLogger now captures usage.input_tokens, usage.output_tokens,
cache_read_input_tokens, cache_creation_input_tokens, plus the rate-limit
remaining/reset headers on every Anthropic response. New nullable columns on
api_logs make rate-limit diagnostics directly queryable.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds three resources under a new "Forecasting" navigation group: a full-CRUD
WatchedEventResource for the Layer 5 volatility detector, plus read-only
WeeklyForecastResource and BacktestResource so the ridge model output and
its calibration can be inspected without SQL.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
ApiLogger now stores the upstream response body to
`api_logs.response_body` whenever the call failed (non-2xx response or
a RequestException carrying a response). Successful 2xx responses
remain null so the table stays small on busy services like fuel:poll
and oil:fetch.
Truncated at 64 KB. The column is mediumText so a future cap raise
needs no schema change.
Captures:
- 4xx and 5xx response bodies verbatim
- Body extracted from RequestException via `$e->response->body()`
when callers use `Http::throw()`
Does not capture:
- ConnectionException (no response existed)
- Generic Throwable from the closure (same reason)
Motivation: the LLM overlay's "skipped — no verified citations" path
left no forensic trail to debug. With this, the next time anything
routed through ApiLogger fails — Anthropic 429s, FRED 5xx, Fuel
Finder errors — the failed body is queryable directly:
SELECT response_body FROM api_logs
WHERE service = ? AND status_code >= 400
ORDER BY id DESC LIMIT 1;
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Removes everything that was made redundant by the new forecasting
stack. Per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md,
this was the cleanup planned at the end of Phase 4.
Deleted services and code:
- App\Services\Prediction\Signals\* (the old six-signal aggregator —
trend, supermarket, day-of-week, brand-behaviour, stickiness,
regional-momentum, oil — replaced by RidgeRegressionModel).
- App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService (the post-Phase-4 thin
shim; StationSearchService now depends on WeeklyForecastService
directly, set up in the previous commit).
- App\Services\LlmPrediction\* (AbstractLlmPredictionProvider plus
the four provider implementations — Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, and
the OilPredictionProvider router. Replaced by LlmOverlayService).
- App\Services\BrentPricePredictor and App\Services\Ewma. The Ewma
helper had no callers left after BrentPricePredictor went.
- App\Models\PricePrediction and its factory.
- App\Console\Commands\PredictOilPrices (the oil:predict command).
- App\Filament\Resources\OilPredictionResource and its Pages.
Schema and dashboard:
- Drop the price_predictions table via a new migration.
- Repoint the Filament StatsOverviewWidget tile from PricePrediction
to WeeklyForecast so the dashboard reflects the new pipeline.
- Remove the OilPredictionProvider binding from AppServiceProvider.
Test cleanup:
- Delete tests for every retired service.
- Update StatsOverviewWidgetTest to seed weekly_forecasts instead of
price_predictions.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the
public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is
new and honest.
Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md):
1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features
trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn
from a backtested calibration table, not made up.
2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over
station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future.
3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The
ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface
as badges, never blended into the number.
4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call,
structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence,
URL-verified citations or rejection.
5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the
active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major
impact, station churn (gated), watched_events).
Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the
8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest
harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp
check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table.
Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out)
ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change
baseline by ~30pp on real data.
New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes,
llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events.
New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay,
forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import.
Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK,
forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30,
forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Created migration for storing UK weekly pump prices from BEIS publications.
Table uses Monday date as primary key and stores petrol/diesel pump prices,
duty, and VAT rates as integer pence or percentage values.
The features JSON column required defensive fallback stubs in three
places (Plan::resolveForUser, PlanFeatures::__construct, PlanSeeder)
and silently swallowed misspelled keys. Typed columns give Eloquent
type-safe reads, simplify the Filament form (no more dotted JSON
paths), and let resolveForUser fail loud when the free row is
missing.
PlanFeatures public API is unchanged so consumers (jobs, middleware)
need no rewrites — one missed JSON read in SendScheduledWhatsAppJob
was caught and converted to a typed where() query.
tests/Pest.php seeds PlanSeeder in beforeEach so any feature test
that resolves a plan finds the free row, mirroring production where
plans always exist.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Reconciles tier docs with `PlanSeeder` reality (basic has price_threshold
and score_alerts; schema is stripe_price_id_monthly + stripe_price_id_annual)
and introduces the display-name layer from pricing-plan.md v2.
- PlanTier::label() + Plan::displayName() + PlanFeatures::displayName()
expose user-facing names (Free/Daily/Smart/Pro); backend identifiers stay
basic/plus/pro so every call site, Stripe mapping, and test keeps working.
- push.frequency key added to features JSON (none/daily/triggered), mirroring
email.frequency so Daily's daily push is distinguishable from Smart/Pro's
triggered push. Seeder, factory, free-tier stubs, and Filament form updated.
- Homepage pricing cards renamed: Basic→Daily, Plus→Smart; badge
"Most Popular"→"Most pick this"; CTAs refreshed.
- docs/tiers.md change log records the full diff.
Fleet tier, 14-day trial copy, and Smart dark-card treatment deferred.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add comprehensive tier feature matrix spec defining Free/Basic/Plus/Pro capabilities across recommendations, predictions, history, logs, tools, and family sharing
- Add `stripe_price_id_annual` column to plans table and rename existing column to `stripe_price_id_monthly`
- Normalize legacy fuel type aliases (petrol→e10, diesel→b7_standard) in users table
- Implement BillingController with checkout, portal, success/cancel routes supporting monthly/annual cadence
- Add admin subscription assignment in Filament user edit page with admin-granted subscription support
- Add DowngradeUserOnSubscriptionDeleted listener to disable WhatsApp/SMS preferences on subscription cancellation
- Add MissedNotificationsOverview widget to Filament user detail page
- Add PollFuelPricesTest covering auto-refresh scenarios
- Add PriceReliability enum with reliability classification based on price age
- Add fuelTypes.js constants file exporting FUEL_TYPES from window global
- Delete unused Livewire Search test and fuel type select Blade component
- Move subscription webhook listener from EventServiceProvider to AppServiceProvider
- Add FUEL_TYPES global config to app layout for client-side use
- Add Billable trait to User model and include email_verified_at in fillable
- Implement monthly/annual cadence toggle with pricing display and smart CTA routing on homepage
- Update VerifyApiKeyMiddlewareTest to use e10 instead of petrol
- Refactor PollFuelPrices to auto-refresh stale stations based on last_seen_at
- Add incremental polling with cached timestamp and effective-start-timestamp param to FuelPriceService
- Normalize amenities/fuel_types from API objects to flat arrays, skip stations missing required fields
- Log response body on API failures in ApiLogger
- Default homepage sort to 'reliable' instead of 'price'
- BrentPriceFetcher owns ingestion (fetchFromEia / fetchFromFred, each throws on failure)
- BrentPricePredictor owns prediction and marks latest brent_prices row as generated
- oil:fetch command tries EIA, falls back to FRED, fails loudly if both fail
- oil:predict command prompts if latest price already has a prediction; --force bypasses
- add prediction_generated_at column to brent_prices
- delete OilPriceService (replaced by the two focused services)
Adds authenticated endpoints for reading/updating fuel type preferences and managing saved stations, backed by new migrations and a SavedStation model.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Runs is_admin migration, adds AdminSeeder for the admin user, registers
it in DatabaseSeeder, adds admin() factory state to UserFactory, and
adds AdminAccessTest covering both forbidden and ok cases.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add PostcodeService to resolve UK postcodes, outcodes, and place names to coordinates via postcodes.io API with 30-day caching
- Add LocationResult value object for resolved location data
- Add per-fuel-type price validation (80p-1050p range) to FuelPriceService with warning logs for out-of-range prices
- Change price_pence column from unsignedSmallInteger to unsignedMediumInteger in station_prices tables
- Add CHECK constraints (5000-50000 range) on price_pence columns as database-level guard
- Improve error handling in PollFuelPrices command with file/line/trace output
- Add tests for PostcodeService covering full postcodes, outcodes, place names, caching, and error handling
- Add test for price validation range checks
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Also extend Pest TestCase to Unit tests and guard MySQL-only migration
DDL (composite PK + PARTITION BY) behind a driver check so in-memory
SQLite tests can run migrations cleanly.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
