Removes everything that was made redundant by the new forecasting
stack. Per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md,
this was the cleanup planned at the end of Phase 4.
Deleted services and code:
- App\Services\Prediction\Signals\* (the old six-signal aggregator —
trend, supermarket, day-of-week, brand-behaviour, stickiness,
regional-momentum, oil — replaced by RidgeRegressionModel).
- App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService (the post-Phase-4 thin
shim; StationSearchService now depends on WeeklyForecastService
directly, set up in the previous commit).
- App\Services\LlmPrediction\* (AbstractLlmPredictionProvider plus
the four provider implementations — Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, and
the OilPredictionProvider router. Replaced by LlmOverlayService).
- App\Services\BrentPricePredictor and App\Services\Ewma. The Ewma
helper had no callers left after BrentPricePredictor went.
- App\Models\PricePrediction and its factory.
- App\Console\Commands\PredictOilPrices (the oil:predict command).
- App\Filament\Resources\OilPredictionResource and its Pages.
Schema and dashboard:
- Drop the price_predictions table via a new migration.
- Repoint the Filament StatsOverviewWidget tile from PricePrediction
to WeeklyForecast so the dashboard reflects the new pipeline.
- Remove the OilPredictionProvider binding from AppServiceProvider.
Test cleanup:
- Delete tests for every retired service.
- Update StatsOverviewWidgetTest to seed weekly_forecasts instead of
price_predictions.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the
public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is
new and honest.
Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md):
1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features
trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn
from a backtested calibration table, not made up.
2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over
station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future.
3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The
ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface
as badges, never blended into the number.
4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call,
structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence,
URL-verified citations or rejection.
5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the
active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major
impact, station churn (gated), watched_events).
Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the
8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest
harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp
check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table.
Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out)
ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change
baseline by ~30pp on real data.
New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes,
llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events.
New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay,
forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import.
Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK,
forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30,
forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
The features JSON column required defensive fallback stubs in three
places (Plan::resolveForUser, PlanFeatures::__construct, PlanSeeder)
and silently swallowed misspelled keys. Typed columns give Eloquent
type-safe reads, simplify the Filament form (no more dotted JSON
paths), and let resolveForUser fail loud when the free row is
missing.
PlanFeatures public API is unchanged so consumers (jobs, middleware)
need no rewrites — one missed JSON read in SendScheduledWhatsAppJob
was caught and converted to a typed where() query.
tests/Pest.php seeds PlanSeeder in beforeEach so any feature test
that resolves a plan finds the free row, mirroring production where
plans always exist.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Reconciles tier docs with `PlanSeeder` reality (basic has price_threshold
and score_alerts; schema is stripe_price_id_monthly + stripe_price_id_annual)
and introduces the display-name layer from pricing-plan.md v2.
- PlanTier::label() + Plan::displayName() + PlanFeatures::displayName()
expose user-facing names (Free/Daily/Smart/Pro); backend identifiers stay
basic/plus/pro so every call site, Stripe mapping, and test keeps working.
- push.frequency key added to features JSON (none/daily/triggered), mirroring
email.frequency so Daily's daily push is distinguishable from Smart/Pro's
triggered push. Seeder, factory, free-tier stubs, and Filament form updated.
- Homepage pricing cards renamed: Basic→Daily, Plus→Smart; badge
"Most Popular"→"Most pick this"; CTAs refreshed.
- docs/tiers.md change log records the full diff.
Fleet tier, 14-day trial copy, and Smart dark-card treatment deferred.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Runs is_admin migration, adds AdminSeeder for the admin user, registers
it in DatabaseSeeder, adds admin() factory state to UserFactory, and
adds AdminAccessTest covering both forbidden and ok cases.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
