Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the
public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is
new and honest.
Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md):
1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features
trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn
from a backtested calibration table, not made up.
2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over
station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future.
3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The
ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface
as badges, never blended into the number.
4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call,
structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence,
URL-verified citations or rejection.
5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the
active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major
impact, station churn (gated), watched_events).
Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the
8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest
harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp
check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table.
Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out)
ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change
baseline by ~30pp on real data.
New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes,
llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events.
New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay,
forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import.
Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK,
forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30,
forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Completes Tasks 12 + 13 from docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-03-fuel-api-ingestion.md.
- ArchiveOldPricesCommand moves station_prices rows older than 12 months
into station_prices_archive in chunks of 1000, wrapping each chunk's
insert + delete in a DB::transaction so a partial failure can't
duplicate rows.
- StationPriceArchive: add $table = 'station_prices_archive'; without it
Eloquent infers 'station_price_archives' and the insert would fail.
- routes/console.php: register fuel:archive monthly on the 1st at 04:00
UTC, alongside the other fuel/oil scheduler entries.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Delete unused Livewire Search test and fuel type select Blade component
- Move subscription webhook listener from EventServiceProvider to AppServiceProvider
- Add FUEL_TYPES global config to app layout for client-side use
- Add Billable trait to User model and include email_verified_at in fillable
- Implement monthly/annual cadence toggle with pricing display and smart CTA routing on homepage
- Update VerifyApiKeyMiddlewareTest to use e10 instead of petrol
- Refactor PollFuelPrices to auto-refresh stale stations based on last_seen_at
- Add incremental polling with cached timestamp and effective-start-timestamp param to FuelPriceService
- Normalize amenities/fuel_types from API objects to flat arrays, skip stations missing required fields
- Log response body on API failures in ApiLogger
- Default homepage sort to 'reliable' instead of 'price'
