Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the
public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is
new and honest.
Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md):
1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features
trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn
from a backtested calibration table, not made up.
2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over
station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future.
3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The
ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface
as badges, never blended into the number.
4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call,
structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence,
URL-verified citations or rejection.
5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the
active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major
impact, station churn (gated), watched_events).
Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the
8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest
harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp
check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table.
Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out)
ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change
baseline by ~30pp on real data.
New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes,
llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events.
New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay,
forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import.
Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK,
forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30,
forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Made `/api/auth/me` public and return explicit allowlist (name, email,
two_factor_confirmed_at, tier, subscription fields) instead of spreading
`$user->toArray()` which leaked is_admin, stripe_id, pm_type, pm_last_four,
postcode. Returns `null` when unauthenticated rather than 401.
- Moved `/auth/logout` to remain behind auth:sanctum gate.
- Added 3×200ms retry with exponential backoff to EiaBrentPriceSource and
FredBrentPriceSource on ConnectionException or 5xx responses. Timeout
raised from 10s to 30s.
- Both sources now throw typed BrentPriceFetchException on exhausted retries
instead of silently returning null + logging. Updated tests to assert
exception message includes HTTP status or "connection failed".
Completes Tasks 12 + 13 from docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-03-fuel-api-ingestion.md.
- ArchiveOldPricesCommand moves station_prices rows older than 12 months
into station_prices_archive in chunks of 1000, wrapping each chunk's
insert + delete in a DB::transaction so a partial failure can't
duplicate rows.
- StationPriceArchive: add $table = 'station_prices_archive'; without it
Eloquent infers 'station_price_archives' and the insert would fail.
- routes/console.php: register fuel:archive monthly on the 1st at 04:00
UTC, alongside the other fuel/oil scheduler entries.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Consolidate prediction functionality by merging /api/prediction endpoint into /api/stations response. Move prediction logic from PredictionController into StationController, returning prediction data alongside station results. Replace usePrediction composable with unified useStations that returns {stations, meta, prediction}. Remove PredictionRequest, related tests, and unused Vue components (FuelFinderTest, MapTest, RecommendationTest, StationListTest). Add PredictionFull component and UpsellBanner. Extend NationalFuelPredictionService to include weekly_summary (7-day series, yesterday/today averages, cheapest/priciest days) and oil signal from price_predictions table. Update Home.vue to consume prediction from stations response. Add Plan::resolveCadenceForUser helper and configure Cashier to use custom Subscription model.
- Add `/stats/live` endpoint returning station count and latest price timestamp with 5-minute cache
- Transform StationCard into expandable component with click/keyboard interaction showing full details
- Display brand label, badges (24h/Supermarket/Motorway), fuel types, amenities, opening hours, and price delta vs average
- Add brand filter dropdown to StationList with dynamic brand extraction from results
- Calculate and display price comparison against filtered stations average
- Redesign map markers to simpler price display; move directions link to popup alongside station details
- Add "locate-me" button to SearchBar for geolocation trigger
- Show "Live" indicator with station count and last-update time on homepage hero
- Remove standalone directions link from marker HTML; consolidate in popup with click propagation handling
- Persist `avgPence` calculation across StationList and pass to cards for delta display
- Add `@iconify-json/lucide` dev dependency and register collection on app mount
- Stop click propagation on card action buttons (directions, remove)
- Delete unused Livewire Search test and fuel type select Blade component
- Move subscription webhook listener from EventServiceProvider to AppServiceProvider
- Add FUEL_TYPES global config to app layout for client-side use
- Add Billable trait to User model and include email_verified_at in fillable
- Implement monthly/annual cadence toggle with pricing display and smart CTA routing on homepage
- Update VerifyApiKeyMiddlewareTest to use e10 instead of petrol
- Refactor PollFuelPrices to auto-refresh stale stations based on last_seen_at
- Add incremental polling with cached timestamp and effective-start-timestamp param to FuelPriceService
- Normalize amenities/fuel_types from API objects to flat arrays, skip stations missing required fields
- Log response body on API failures in ApiLogger
- Default homepage sort to 'reliable' instead of 'price'
Adds authenticated endpoints for reading/updating fuel type preferences and managing saved stations, backed by new migrations and a SavedStation model.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds `VerifyApiKey` middleware protecting all API routes with `X-Api-Key` header validation. Wraps `/api/stations`, `/api/stats/searches`, and `/api/prediction` in throttled middleware group (60 req/min). Updates StationSearchTest to use `RefreshDatabase`, adds `meta` assertion checks, and validates `fuel_type` in HTTP request assertions. Removes auth routes from API docs and replaces with API key authentication instructions. Adds `api_secret_key` config option.
Extends NearbyStationsRequest to accept `postcode` (full or outcode) as an alternative to lat/lng. PostcodeService resolves it via postcodes.io and falls through to coordinates. Also adds SearchResource to the Filament admin panel for viewing logged search activity with fuel type filter and price/distance stats columns. Includes SQLite GREATEST/LEAST function polyfills in AppServiceProvider for test compatibility.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
