Commit Graph

2 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Ovidiu U
d13a29df01 docs: amend prediction rebuild spec with implementation defaults and changelog v3
Adds two sections to the spec:
- Implementation defaults: pins the four open decisions settled before
  Phase 1 (naive baseline = zero-change, math = inline pure PHP,
  coefficients on the backtests row, BEIS retrain = manual CSV + cron)
  plus the namespace, scaler, and Pest conventions.
- Changelog v3: records the verdict-via-rule-gates architecture (gates
  not multipliers), removal of weeks_since_duty_change as a feature,
  lower 62% backtest gate, structural leak detector promoted to primary.

Captured here so a future session can resume implementation without
re-deriving them.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-03 08:39:26 +01:00
Ovidiu U
25cf022964 feat: add prediction rebuild design spec — Layer 1 ridge model, LLM news overlay, volatility regime detector
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Documents complete replacement of six-signal aggregator with calibrated
ridge forecaster trained on 435 weeks of BEIS pump prices. Five-layer
architecture: weekly baseline (Layer 1), local snapshot (Layer 2),
rule-gated verdict merger (Layer 3), daily LLM news
2026-05-01 13:23:10 +01:00