Removes everything that was made redundant by the new forecasting
stack. Per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md,
this was the cleanup planned at the end of Phase 4.
Deleted services and code:
- App\Services\Prediction\Signals\* (the old six-signal aggregator —
trend, supermarket, day-of-week, brand-behaviour, stickiness,
regional-momentum, oil — replaced by RidgeRegressionModel).
- App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService (the post-Phase-4 thin
shim; StationSearchService now depends on WeeklyForecastService
directly, set up in the previous commit).
- App\Services\LlmPrediction\* (AbstractLlmPredictionProvider plus
the four provider implementations — Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, and
the OilPredictionProvider router. Replaced by LlmOverlayService).
- App\Services\BrentPricePredictor and App\Services\Ewma. The Ewma
helper had no callers left after BrentPricePredictor went.
- App\Models\PricePrediction and its factory.
- App\Console\Commands\PredictOilPrices (the oil:predict command).
- App\Filament\Resources\OilPredictionResource and its Pages.
Schema and dashboard:
- Drop the price_predictions table via a new migration.
- Repoint the Filament StatsOverviewWidget tile from PricePrediction
to WeeklyForecast so the dashboard reflects the new pipeline.
- Remove the OilPredictionProvider binding from AppServiceProvider.
Test cleanup:
- Delete tests for every retired service.
- Update StatsOverviewWidgetTest to seed weekly_forecasts instead of
price_predictions.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the
public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is
new and honest.
Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md):
1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features
trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn
from a backtested calibration table, not made up.
2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over
station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future.
3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The
ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface
as badges, never blended into the number.
4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call,
structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence,
URL-verified citations or rejection.
5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the
active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major
impact, station churn (gated), watched_events).
Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the
8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest
harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp
check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table.
Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out)
ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change
baseline by ~30pp on real data.
New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes,
llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events.
New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay,
forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import.
Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK,
forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30,
forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Audit item #13. The command truncated postcodes + outcodes immediately
and then chunk-inserted from the CSV. A mid-stream failure (network
drive disconnect, malformed row) left the production tables empty
until a successful re-run.
Now streams into a postcodes_staging table created via Schema::create
(works on both MySQL and SQLite) and only swaps into the live tables
once the full CSV has been consumed. A try/finally ensures the file
handle and staging table are cleaned up on any path. Live data is now
preserved on partial failures.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Audit items #15, #16, #20, #22.
#15 — AuthController::me and UserResource form/table now read tier via
PlanFeatures::for($user)->tier() instead of Plan::resolveForUser($user)
->name. Tiers.md: PlanFeatures is the single entitlement gate.
#16 — Moved SQLite GREATEST/LEAST PHP-backed function registration from
AppServiceProvider::boot to tests/TestCase::setUp. Production app boot no
longer checks the DB driver name.
#20 — FetchOilPrices: added Log::warning on EIA fallback and Log::error
on both-providers-failed so primary-source reliability can be trended
beyond the cron output buffer.
#22 — FuelPriceService::flattenEnabledFlags is now an instance method,
matching the rest of the class. No external callers.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Completes Tasks 12 + 13 from docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-03-fuel-api-ingestion.md.
- ArchiveOldPricesCommand moves station_prices rows older than 12 months
into station_prices_archive in chunks of 1000, wrapping each chunk's
insert + delete in a DB::transaction so a partial failure can't
duplicate rows.
- StationPriceArchive: add $table = 'station_prices_archive'; without it
Eloquent infers 'station_price_archives' and the insert would fail.
- routes/console.php: register fuel:archive monthly on the 1st at 04:00
UTC, alongside the other fuel/oil scheduler entries.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Delete unused Livewire Search test and fuel type select Blade component
- Move subscription webhook listener from EventServiceProvider to AppServiceProvider
- Add FUEL_TYPES global config to app layout for client-side use
- Add Billable trait to User model and include email_verified_at in fillable
- Implement monthly/annual cadence toggle with pricing display and smart CTA routing on homepage
- Update VerifyApiKeyMiddlewareTest to use e10 instead of petrol
- Refactor PollFuelPrices to auto-refresh stale stations based on last_seen_at
- Add incremental polling with cached timestamp and effective-start-timestamp param to FuelPriceService
- Normalize amenities/fuel_types from API objects to flat arrays, skip stations missing required fields
- Log response body on API failures in ApiLogger
- Default homepage sort to 'reliable' instead of 'price'
- BrentPriceFetcher owns ingestion (fetchFromEia / fetchFromFred, each throws on failure)
- BrentPricePredictor owns prediction and marks latest brent_prices row as generated
- oil:fetch command tries EIA, falls back to FRED, fails loudly if both fail
- oil:predict command prompts if latest price already has a prediction; --force bypasses
- add prediction_generated_at column to brent_prices
- delete OilPriceService (replaced by the two focused services)
- Add PostcodeService to resolve UK postcodes, outcodes, and place names to coordinates via postcodes.io API with 30-day caching
- Add LocationResult value object for resolved location data
- Add per-fuel-type price validation (80p-1050p range) to FuelPriceService with warning logs for out-of-range prices
- Change price_pence column from unsignedSmallInteger to unsignedMediumInteger in station_prices tables
- Add CHECK constraints (5000-50000 range) on price_pence columns as database-level guard
- Improve error handling in PollFuelPrices command with file/line/trace output
- Add tests for PostcodeService covering full postcodes, outcodes, place names, caching, and error handling
- Add test for price validation range checks
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
