Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is new and honest. Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md): 1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn from a backtested calibration table, not made up. 2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future. 3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface as badges, never blended into the number. 4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call, structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence, URL-verified citations or rejection. 5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major impact, station churn (gated), watched_events). Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the 8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table. Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out) ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change baseline by ~30pp on real data. New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes, llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events. New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay, forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import. Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK, forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30, forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
164 lines
6.1 KiB
PHP
164 lines
6.1 KiB
PHP
<?php
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namespace App\Services\StationSearch;
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use App\Enums\PriceClassification;
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use App\Enums\PriceReliability;
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use App\Models\Search;
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use App\Models\Station;
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use App\Models\User;
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use App\Services\Forecasting\LocalSnapshotService;
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use App\Services\Forecasting\WeeklyForecastService;
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use App\Services\HaversineQuery;
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use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
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use Illuminate\Database\Query\JoinClause;
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use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
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use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
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final class StationSearchService
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{
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public function __construct(
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private readonly WeeklyForecastService $weeklyForecast,
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private readonly LocalSnapshotService $localSnapshot,
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) {}
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public function search(SearchCriteria $criteria, ?User $user, ?string $ipHash): SearchResult
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{
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$stations = $this->fetchAndSortStations($criteria);
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$prices = $stations->pluck('price_pence');
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$this->logSearch($criteria, $stations->count(), $prices, $ipHash);
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return new SearchResult(
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stations: $stations,
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pricesSummary: [
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'lowest' => $prices->min(),
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'highest' => $prices->max(),
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'avg' => $prices->isNotEmpty() ? round($prices->avg(), 2) : null,
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],
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reliabilityCounts: $this->countReliability($stations),
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prediction: $this->buildPrediction($user, $criteria),
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);
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}
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/** @return Collection<int, mixed> */
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private function fetchAndSortStations(SearchCriteria $criteria): Collection
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{
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[$distanceSql, $distanceBindings] = HaversineQuery::distanceKm($criteria->lat, $criteria->lng);
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$all = Station::query()
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->selectRaw(
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"stations.*, spc.price_pence, spc.fuel_type, spc.price_effective_at, {$distanceSql} AS distance_km",
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$distanceBindings,
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)
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->join('station_prices_current as spc', function (JoinClause $join) use ($criteria): void {
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$join->on('stations.node_id', '=', 'spc.station_id')
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->where('spc.fuel_type', '=', $criteria->fuelType->value);
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})
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->where('stations.temporary_closure', false)
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->where('stations.permanent_closure', false)
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->get();
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// Compute reliability + classification once per row so the sort, the
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// count groupBy, and the StationResource render all read cached
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// values instead of re-invoking PriceReliability::fromUpdatedAt.
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$all->each(function ($s): void {
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$updatedAt = $s->price_effective_at ? Carbon::parse($s->price_effective_at) : null;
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$s->_updated_at = $updatedAt;
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$s->_reliability = PriceReliability::fromUpdatedAt($updatedAt);
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$s->_classification = PriceClassification::fromUpdatedAt($updatedAt);
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});
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$filtered = $all->filter(fn ($s) => (float) $s->distance_km <= $criteria->radiusKm);
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return $this->applySort($filtered, $criteria->sort);
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}
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/**
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* @param Collection<int, mixed> $filtered
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* @return Collection<int, mixed>
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*/
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private function applySort(Collection $filtered, string $sort): Collection
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{
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if ($sort === 'reliable') {
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return $filtered
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->sort(function ($a, $b) {
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return $a->_reliability->weight() <=> $b->_reliability->weight()
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?: ((int) $a->price_pence <=> (int) $b->price_pence)
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?: ((float) $a->distance_km <=> (float) $b->distance_km);
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})
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->values();
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}
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return $filtered->sortBy(match ($sort) {
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'price' => fn ($s) => (int) $s->price_pence,
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'updated' => fn ($s) => $s->price_effective_at ? -strtotime($s->price_effective_at) : PHP_INT_MAX,
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default => fn ($s) => (float) $s->distance_km,
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})->values();
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}
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/**
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* @param Collection<int, mixed> $stations
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* @return array{reliable: int, stale: int, outdated: int}
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*/
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private function countReliability(Collection $stations): array
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{
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$counts = $stations->groupBy(fn ($s) => $s->_reliability->value)->map->count();
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return [
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'reliable' => (int) $counts->get(PriceReliability::Reliable->value, 0),
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'stale' => (int) $counts->get(PriceReliability::Stale->value, 0),
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'outdated' => (int) $counts->get(PriceReliability::Outdated->value, 0),
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];
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}
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/** @param Collection<int, mixed> $prices */
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private function logSearch(SearchCriteria $criteria, int $resultsCount, Collection $prices, ?string $ipHash): void
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{
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Search::create([
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'lat_bucket' => round($criteria->lat, 2),
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'lng_bucket' => round($criteria->lng, 2),
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'fuel_type' => $criteria->fuelType->value,
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'results_count' => $resultsCount,
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'lowest_pence' => $prices->min(),
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'highest_pence' => $prices->max(),
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'avg_pence' => $prices->isNotEmpty() ? round($prices->avg(), 2) : null,
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'searched_at' => now(),
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'ip_hash' => $ipHash ?? hash('sha256', ''),
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]);
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}
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/**
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* Free/guest users get a stripped teaser; users with the ai_predictions
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* feature get the full multi-signal payload.
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*
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* @return array<string, mixed>
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*/
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private function buildPrediction(?User $user, SearchCriteria $criteria): array
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{
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$result = $this->weeklyForecast->currentForecast();
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// Layer 1 is national; the region_key only reflects whether the
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// caller passed coordinates so the JSON contract stays stable.
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$result['region_key'] = 'regional';
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$canSeeFull = $user !== null && PlanFeatures::for($user)->can('ai_predictions');
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if (! $canSeeFull) {
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return [
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'fuel_type' => $result['fuel_type'],
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'predicted_direction' => $result['predicted_direction'],
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'tier_locked' => true,
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];
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}
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$result['local_snapshot'] = $this->localSnapshot->snapshot(
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fuelType: $criteria->fuelType->value,
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lat: $criteria->lat,
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lng: $criteria->lng,
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radiusKm: max(10, (int) $criteria->radiusKm),
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);
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return $result;
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}
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}
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