ddd591ad47
Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is new and honest. Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md): 1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn from a backtested calibration table, not made up. 2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future. 3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface as badges, never blended into the number. 4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call, structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence, URL-verified citations or rejection. 5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major impact, station churn (gated), watched_events). Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the 8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table. Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out) ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change baseline by ~30pp on real data. New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes, llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events. New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay, forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import. Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK, forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30, forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
53 lines
2.4 KiB
PHP
53 lines
2.4 KiB
PHP
<?php
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use App\Services\Forecasting\UkBankHolidays;
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use Carbon\Carbon;
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it('returns 8 statutory bank holidays per year', function () {
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expect(UkBankHolidays::forYear(2024))->toHaveCount(8)
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->and(UkBankHolidays::forYear(2025))->toHaveCount(8);
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});
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it('computes Easter Monday correctly for 2024 (Apr 1)', function () {
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$dates = array_map(fn ($d): string => $d->toDateString(), UkBankHolidays::forYear(2024));
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expect($dates)->toContain('2024-04-01'); // Easter Monday
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expect($dates)->toContain('2024-03-29'); // Good Friday
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});
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it('computes the floating Mondays for 2024 correctly', function () {
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$dates = array_map(fn ($d): string => $d->toDateString(), UkBankHolidays::forYear(2024));
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expect($dates)->toContain('2024-05-06'); // First Mon of May (Early May)
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expect($dates)->toContain('2024-05-27'); // Last Mon of May (Spring)
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expect($dates)->toContain('2024-08-26'); // Last Mon of August (Summer)
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});
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it('substitutes Christmas Day forward when it falls on a weekend (2022)', function () {
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// 2022: Christmas was a Sunday, Boxing Day Monday → Christmas observed Tue Dec 27, Boxing observed Mon Dec 26.
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$dates = array_map(fn ($d): string => $d->toDateString(), UkBankHolidays::forYear(2022));
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expect($dates)->toContain('2022-12-26') // Boxing
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->and($dates)->toContain('2022-12-27'); // Christmas substituted
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});
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it('returns true when a target Monday is itself a bank holiday (Easter Monday 2024)', function () {
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$monday = Carbon::parse('2024-04-01');
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expect(UkBankHolidays::holidayWithin($monday, 7))->toBeTrue();
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});
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it('returns true when a bank holiday falls within the next 7 days', function () {
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// Mon 2024-04-01 is Easter Monday. The Monday before (2024-03-25) is pre-bank-holiday week.
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$weekBefore = Carbon::parse('2024-03-25');
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expect(UkBankHolidays::holidayWithin($weekBefore, 7))->toBeTrue();
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});
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it('returns false for a quiet stretch with no holidays in the window', function () {
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// Mid-July 2024 — no UK bank holidays in this 7-day window.
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$monday = Carbon::parse('2024-07-15');
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expect(UkBankHolidays::holidayWithin($monday, 7))->toBeFalse();
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});
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it('handles a window that crosses a year boundary', function () {
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// Mon 2024-12-30 → window includes New Year's Day 2025 (Wed Jan 1).
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$monday = Carbon::parse('2024-12-30');
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expect(UkBankHolidays::holidayWithin($monday, 7))->toBeTrue();
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});
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