ddd591ad47
Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is new and honest. Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md): 1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn from a backtested calibration table, not made up. 2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future. 3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface as badges, never blended into the number. 4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call, structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence, URL-verified citations or rejection. 5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major impact, station churn (gated), watched_events). Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the 8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table. Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out) ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change baseline by ~30pp on real data. New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes, llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events. New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay, forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import. Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK, forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30, forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
46 lines
1.3 KiB
PHP
46 lines
1.3 KiB
PHP
<?php
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namespace App\Services\Forecasting;
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use Carbon\CarbonInterface;
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use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
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/**
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* Flags forecast weeks that fall within ±4 weeks of a known UK fuel
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* duty change. Per the spec calibration override (n=1), the displayed
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* confidence on flagged weeks is halved and the reasoning text says so.
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*/
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final class DutyChangeDetector
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{
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public const int FLAG_RADIUS_WEEKS = 4;
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/**
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* Returns true if the target Monday is within ±4 weeks of any
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* change in `weekly_pump_prices.ulsp_duty_pence`.
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*/
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public function isAdjacent(CarbonInterface $targetMonday): bool
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{
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$start = $targetMonday->copy()->subWeeks(self::FLAG_RADIUS_WEEKS)->toDateString();
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$end = $targetMonday->copy()->addWeeks(self::FLAG_RADIUS_WEEKS)->toDateString();
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$rows = DB::table('weekly_pump_prices')
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->whereBetween('date', [$start, $end])
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->orderBy('date')
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->get(['date', 'ulsp_duty_pence']);
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if ($rows->count() < 2) {
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return false;
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}
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$previous = null;
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foreach ($rows as $r) {
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if ($previous !== null && (int) $r->ulsp_duty_pence !== $previous) {
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return true;
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}
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$previous = (int) $r->ulsp_duty_pence;
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}
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return false;
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}
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}
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