Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is new and honest. Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md): 1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn from a backtested calibration table, not made up. 2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future. 3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface as badges, never blended into the number. 4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call, structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence, URL-verified citations or rejection. 5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major impact, station churn (gated), watched_events). Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the 8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table. Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out) ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change baseline by ~30pp on real data. New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes, llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events. New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay, forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import. Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK, forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30, forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
120 lines
4.3 KiB
PHP
120 lines
4.3 KiB
PHP
<?php
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use App\Services\Forecasting\BeisImporter;
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use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
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use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Cache;
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use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
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use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
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uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
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beforeEach(function (): void {
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Http::preventStrayRequests();
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});
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function fakeBeisCsv(string $body, string $cdnUrl = 'https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/abc/weekly_road_fuel_prices_270426.csv'): void
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{
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Http::fake([
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'https://www.gov.uk/api/content/government/statistics/weekly-road-fuel-prices' => Http::response([
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'details' => [
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'attachments' => [
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['title' => 'Weekly road fuel prices (Excel)', 'url' => 'https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/x/excel.xlsx'],
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['title' => 'Weekly road fuel prices (CSV) 2018 to 2026', 'url' => $cdnUrl],
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['title' => 'Weekly road fuel prices (CSV) 2003 to 2017', 'url' => 'https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/y/old.csv'],
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],
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],
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]),
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$cdnUrl => Http::response($body, 200, ['Content-Type' => 'text/csv']),
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]);
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}
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it('resolves the CSV URL from the gov.uk content API and upserts rows', function (): void {
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$csv = "Date,ULSP,ULSD,ULSP duty,ULSD duty,ULSP VAT,ULSD VAT\r\n"
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."20/04/2026,157.62,191.24,52.95,52.95,20,20\r\n"
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."27/04/2026,156.99,189.81,52.95,52.95,20,20\r\n";
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fakeBeisCsv($csv);
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$result = (new BeisImporter)->import();
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expect($result['parsed'])->toBe(2)
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->and($result['latest_date'])->toBe('2026-04-27')
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->and(DB::table('weekly_pump_prices')->count())->toBe(2);
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$row = DB::table('weekly_pump_prices')->where('date', '2026-04-27')->first();
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expect((int) $row->ulsp_pence)->toBe(15699)
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->and((int) $row->ulsd_pence)->toBe(18981);
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});
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it('is idempotent on re-run with no new rows', function (): void {
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$csv = "Date,ULSP,ULSD,ULSP duty,ULSD duty,ULSP VAT,ULSD VAT\r\n"
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."27/04/2026,156.99,189.81,52.95,52.95,20,20\r\n";
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fakeBeisCsv($csv);
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(new BeisImporter)->import();
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(new BeisImporter)->import();
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expect(DB::table('weekly_pump_prices')->count())->toBe(1);
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});
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it('updates existing rows when CSV values change (upsert)', function (): void {
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// Seed a stale row directly so we can prove the import overwrites it.
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DB::table('weekly_pump_prices')->insert([
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'date' => '2026-04-27',
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'ulsp_pence' => 15500,
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'ulsd_pence' => 18900,
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'ulsp_duty_pence' => 5295,
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'ulsd_duty_pence' => 5295,
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'ulsp_vat_pct' => 20,
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'ulsd_vat_pct' => 20,
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]);
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$csv = "Date,ULSP,ULSD,ULSP duty,ULSD duty,ULSP VAT,ULSD VAT\r\n"
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."27/04/2026,157.05,189.85,52.95,52.95,20,20\r\n";
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fakeBeisCsv($csv);
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(new BeisImporter)->import();
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$row = DB::table('weekly_pump_prices')->where('date', '2026-04-27')->first();
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expect((int) $row->ulsp_pence)->toBe(15705) // updated from 15500
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->and((int) $row->ulsd_pence)->toBe(18985);
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});
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it('throws when gov.uk API does not contain the expected CSV attachment', function (): void {
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Http::fake([
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'https://www.gov.uk/api/content/government/statistics/weekly-road-fuel-prices' => Http::response([
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'details' => ['attachments' => [
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['title' => 'Some other thing', 'url' => 'https://x'],
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]],
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]),
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]);
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(new BeisImporter)->import();
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})->throws(RuntimeException::class, 'did not return an attachment');
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it('flushes the forecast cache after a successful import', function (): void {
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Cache::put('forecast:current:something', 'stale', 3600);
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$csv = "Date,ULSP,ULSD,ULSP duty,ULSD duty,ULSP VAT,ULSD VAT\r\n"
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."27/04/2026,156.99,189.81,52.95,52.95,20,20\r\n";
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fakeBeisCsv($csv);
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(new BeisImporter)->import();
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expect(Cache::get('forecast:current:something'))->toBeNull();
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});
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it('skips malformed rows but imports the rest', function (): void {
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$csv = "Date,ULSP,ULSD,ULSP duty,ULSD duty,ULSP VAT,ULSD VAT\r\n"
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."27/04/2026,156.99,189.81,52.95,52.95,20,20\r\n"
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."not-a-date,123,123,52.95,52.95,20,20\r\n"
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."20/04/2026,157.62,191.24,52.95,52.95,20,20\r\n";
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fakeBeisCsv($csv);
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$result = (new BeisImporter)->import();
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expect($result['parsed'])->toBe(2)
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->and(DB::table('weekly_pump_prices')->count())->toBe(2);
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});
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