fuel-alert/tests/Unit/Services/Forecasting/LlmOverlayServiceTest.php

<?php

use App\Models\LlmOverlay;
use App\Services\ApiLogger;
use App\Services\Forecasting\LlmOverlayService;
use App\Services\Forecasting\WeeklyForecastService;
use Carbon\Carbon;
use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Cache;
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Config;
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;

uses(RefreshDatabase::class);

beforeEach(function (): void {
    Cache::flush();
    Config::set('services.anthropic.api_key', 'test-key');
});

function fakeAnthropicWithOverlay(string $direction, int $confidence, array $events, bool $major = false): void
{
    Http::fake([
        '*api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
            ->push([
                'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
                'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => 'Search summary.']],
            ])
            ->push([
                'stop_reason' => 'tool_use',
                'content' => [[
                    'type' => 'tool_use',
                    'name' => 'submit_overlay',
                    'input' => [
                        'direction' => $direction,
                        'confidence' => $confidence,
                        'reasoning_short' => 'Test reasoning.',
                        'events_cited' => $events,
                        'agrees_with_ridge' => true,
                        'major_impact_event' => $major,
                    ],
                ]],
            ]),
        // URL HEAD verification probes — accept everything by default
        '*' => Http::response('', 200),
    ]);
}

it('skips when ANTHROPIC_API_KEY is not set', function (): void {
    Config::set('services.anthropic.api_key', null);

    $service = new LlmOverlayService(new ApiLogger, app(WeeklyForecastService::class));

    expect($service->run())->toBeNull();
});

it('rejects the overlay when no events are cited', function (): void {
    fakeAnthropicWithOverlay('rising', 60, []);

    $service = new LlmOverlayService(new ApiLogger, app(WeeklyForecastService::class));

    expect($service->run())->toBeNull()
        ->and(LlmOverlay::query()->count())->toBe(0);
});

it('verifies a URL via GET fallback when HEAD returns 405', function (): void {
    Http::fake([
        '*api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
            ->push([
                'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
                'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => 'ok']],
            ])
            ->push([
                'stop_reason' => 'tool_use',
                'content' => [[
                    'type' => 'tool_use',
                    'name' => 'submit_overlay',
                    'input' => [
                        'direction' => 'rising',
                        'confidence' => 60,
                        'reasoning_short' => 'Hostile-to-HEAD source.',
                        'events_cited' => [
                            ['headline' => 'OPEC', 'source' => 'Reuters', 'url' => 'https://reuters.com/x', 'impact' => 'rising'],
                        ],
                        'agrees_with_ridge' => true,
                        'major_impact_event' => false,
                    ],
                ]],
            ]),
        'reuters.com/*' => Http::sequence()
            ->push('', 405)               // HEAD → 405 Method Not Allowed
            ->push('partial-body', 200), // GET fallback succeeds
    ]);

    $service = new LlmOverlayService(new ApiLogger, app(WeeklyForecastService::class));
    $row = $service->run();

    expect($row)->not->toBeNull()
        ->and($row->events_json)->toHaveCount(1);
});

it('rejects the overlay when both HEAD and GET fail', function (): void {
    Http::fake([
        '*api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
            ->push([
                'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
                'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => 'ok']],
            ])
            ->push([
                'stop_reason' => 'tool_use',
                'content' => [[
                    'type' => 'tool_use',
                    'name' => 'submit_overlay',
                    'input' => [
                        'direction' => 'rising',
                        'confidence' => 60,
                        'reasoning_short' => 'Truly dead URL.',
                        'events_cited' => [
                            ['headline' => 'X', 'source' => 'Reuters', 'url' => 'https://example.com/dead', 'impact' => 'rising'],
                        ],
                        'agrees_with_ridge' => true,
                        'major_impact_event' => false,
                    ],
                ]],
            ]),
        'example.com/*' => Http::sequence()
            ->push('', 404)  // HEAD → 404
            ->push('', 404), // GET → still 404
    ]);

    $service = new LlmOverlayService(new ApiLogger, app(WeeklyForecastService::class));

    expect($service->run())->toBeNull()
        ->and(LlmOverlay::query()->count())->toBe(0);
});

it('rejects the overlay when every cited URL is unreachable', function (): void {
    Http::fake([
        '*api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
            ->push([
                'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
                'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => 'ok']],
            ])
            ->push([
                'stop_reason' => 'tool_use',
                'content' => [[
                    'type' => 'tool_use',
                    'name' => 'submit_overlay',
                    'input' => [
                        'direction' => 'rising',
                        'confidence' => 60,
                        'reasoning_short' => 'Test.',
                        'events_cited' => [
                            ['headline' => 'X', 'source' => 'Reuters', 'url' => 'https://example.com/dead', 'impact' => 'rising'],
                        ],
                        'agrees_with_ridge' => true,
                        'major_impact_event' => false,
                    ],
                ]],
            ]),
        'example.com/*' => Http::response('', 404),
    ]);

    $service = new LlmOverlayService(new ApiLogger, app(WeeklyForecastService::class));

    expect($service->run())->toBeNull()
        ->and(LlmOverlay::query()->count())->toBe(0);
});

it('persists an overlay row with verified citations and capped confidence', function (): void {
    fakeAnthropicWithOverlay(
        direction: 'rising',
        confidence: 95, // above cap → expect capped to 75
        events: [
            ['headline' => 'OPEC cuts output', 'source' => 'Reuters', 'url' => 'https://reuters.com/opec', 'impact' => 'rising'],
        ],
        major: true,
    );

    $service = new LlmOverlayService(new ApiLogger, app(WeeklyForecastService::class));

    $row = $service->run();

    expect($row)->not->toBeNull()
        ->and($row->direction)->toBe('rising')
        ->and($row->confidence)->toBe(75) // capped
        ->and($row->major_impact_event)->toBeTrue()
        ->and($row->search_used)->toBeTrue()
        ->and($row->events_json)->toHaveCount(1);
});

it('honors the 4-hour cooldown for event-driven calls', function (): void {
    Carbon::setTestNow('2026-05-01 10:00:00');
    DB::table('llm_overlays')->insert([
        'ran_at' => Carbon::parse('2026-05-01 08:00:00'),
        'forecast_for_week' => '2026-05-04',
        'direction' => 'rising',
        'confidence' => 60,
        'reasoning' => 'prior',
        'events_json' => json_encode([['headline' => 'x', 'url' => 'https://reuters.com/x']]),
        'agrees_with_ridge' => true,
        'major_impact_event' => false,
        'volatility_flag_on' => false,
        'search_used' => true,
        'created_at' => now(),
        'updated_at' => now(),
    ]);

    fakeAnthropicWithOverlay('falling', 40, [
        ['headline' => 'A', 'source' => 'X', 'url' => 'https://reuters.com/a', 'impact' => 'falling'],
    ]);

    $service = new LlmOverlayService(new ApiLogger, app(WeeklyForecastService::class));

    expect($service->run(eventDriven: true))->toBeNull() // <4h since prior
        ->and(LlmOverlay::query()->count())->toBe(1);    // no new row inserted

    Carbon::setTestNow();
});

it('always runs (ignores cooldown) when not event-driven', function (): void {
    Carbon::setTestNow('2026-05-01 10:00:00');
    DB::table('llm_overlays')->insert([
        'ran_at' => Carbon::parse('2026-05-01 08:00:00'),
        'forecast_for_week' => '2026-05-04',
        'direction' => 'rising',
        'confidence' => 60,
        'reasoning' => 'prior',
        'events_json' => json_encode([['headline' => 'x', 'url' => 'https://reuters.com/x']]),
        'agrees_with_ridge' => true,
        'major_impact_event' => false,
        'volatility_flag_on' => false,
        'search_used' => true,
        'created_at' => now(),
        'updated_at' => now(),
    ]);

    fakeAnthropicWithOverlay('falling', 40, [
        ['headline' => 'A', 'source' => 'X', 'url' => 'https://reuters.com/a', 'impact' => 'falling'],
    ]);

    $service = new LlmOverlayService(new ApiLogger, app(WeeklyForecastService::class));

    expect($service->run())->not->toBeNull()
        ->and(LlmOverlay::query()->count())->toBe(2);

    Carbon::setTestNow();
});