Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is new and honest. Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md): 1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn from a backtested calibration table, not made up. 2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future. 3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface as badges, never blended into the number. 4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call, structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence, URL-verified citations or rejection. 5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major impact, station churn (gated), watched_events). Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the 8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table. Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out) ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change baseline by ~30pp on real data. New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes, llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events. New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay, forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import. Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK, forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30, forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
65 lines
1.7 KiB
PHP
65 lines
1.7 KiB
PHP
<?php
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namespace App\Services;
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use App\Models\BrentPrice;
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use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\BrentPriceFetchException;
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use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\EiaBrentPriceSource;
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use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\FredBrentPriceSource;
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final readonly class BrentPriceFetcher
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{
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public function __construct(
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private readonly EiaBrentPriceSource $eia,
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private readonly FredBrentPriceSource $fred,
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) {}
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/**
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* Fetch from EIA and persist. Throws on failure.
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*/
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public function fetchFromEia(): void
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{
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$rows = $this->eia->fetch();
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if ($rows === null) {
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throw new BrentPriceFetchException('EIA fetch returned no data');
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}
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BrentPrice::upsert($rows, ['date'], ['price_usd']);
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}
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/**
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* Fetch from FRED and persist. Throws on failure.
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*/
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public function fetchFromFred(): void
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{
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$rows = $this->fred->fetch();
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if ($rows === null) {
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throw new BrentPriceFetchException('FRED fetch returned no data');
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}
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BrentPrice::upsert($rows, ['date'], ['price_usd']);
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}
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/**
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* One-shot Brent backfill via FRED's observation_start/end. Used to
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* seed `brent_prices` going back to 2018 so Phase 9's volatility
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* detector and Phase 8's LLM overlay have proper context.
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*
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* @return int rows inserted/updated
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*/
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public function backfillFromFred(string $from, string $to): int
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{
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$rows = $this->fred->fetchRange($from, $to);
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if ($rows === null) {
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throw new BrentPriceFetchException("FRED backfill ({$from} → {$to}) returned no data");
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}
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BrentPrice::upsert($rows, ['date'], ['price_usd']);
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return count($rows);
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}
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}
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