ddd591ad47
Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is new and honest. Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md): 1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn from a backtested calibration table, not made up. 2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future. 3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface as badges, never blended into the number. 4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call, structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence, URL-verified citations or rejection. 5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major impact, station churn (gated), watched_events). Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the 8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table. Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out) ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change baseline by ~30pp on real data. New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes, llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events. New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay, forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import. Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK, forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30, forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
59 lines
1.4 KiB
PHP
59 lines
1.4 KiB
PHP
<?php
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namespace App\Services\Forecasting;
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use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
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/**
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* Loads `weekly_pump_prices` once into an in-memory map keyed by date.
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*
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* Used by features and the ridge model — avoids one SELECT per
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* (week × feature) lookup. Lazy: nothing loads until first query.
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*/
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final class WeeklyPumpPriceLoader
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{
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/** @var array<string, object{date: string, ulsp_pence: int, ulsd_pence: int}>|null */
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private ?array $byDate = null;
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public function ulspPence(string $date): ?int
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{
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$row = $this->byDate()[$date] ?? null;
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return $row === null ? null : (int) $row->ulsp_pence;
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}
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public function ulsdPence(string $date): ?int
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{
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$row = $this->byDate()[$date] ?? null;
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return $row === null ? null : (int) $row->ulsd_pence;
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}
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/** @return array<int, string> Sorted ascending. */
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public function allDates(): array
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{
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return array_keys($this->byDate());
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}
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/** @return array<string, object{date: string, ulsp_pence: int, ulsd_pence: int}> */
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private function byDate(): array
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{
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if ($this->byDate !== null) {
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return $this->byDate;
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}
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$rows = DB::table('weekly_pump_prices')
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->orderBy('date')
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->get(['date', 'ulsp_pence', 'ulsd_pence']);
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$map = [];
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foreach ($rows as $r) {
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$map[(string) $r->date] = $r;
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}
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$this->byDate = $map;
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return $map;
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}
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}
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