ddd591ad47
Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is new and honest. Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md): 1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn from a backtested calibration table, not made up. 2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future. 3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface as badges, never blended into the number. 4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call, structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence, URL-verified citations or rejection. 5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major impact, station churn (gated), watched_events). Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the 8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table. Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out) ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change baseline by ~30pp on real data. New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes, llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events. New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay, forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import. Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK, forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30, forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
112 lines
3.1 KiB
PHP
112 lines
3.1 KiB
PHP
<?php
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return [
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/*
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|--------------------------------------------------------------------------
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| Third Party Services
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|--------------------------------------------------------------------------
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| This file is for storing the credentials for third party services such
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| as Mailgun, Postmark, AWS and more. This file provides the de facto
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| location for this type of information, allowing packages to have
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| a conventional file to locate the various service credentials.
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*/
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'postmark' => [
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'key' => env('POSTMARK_API_KEY'),
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],
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'resend' => [
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'key' => env('RESEND_API_KEY'),
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],
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'ses' => [
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'key' => env('AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID'),
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'secret' => env('AWS_SECRET_ACCESS_KEY'),
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'region' => env('AWS_DEFAULT_REGION', 'us-east-1'),
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],
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'slack' => [
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'notifications' => [
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'bot_user_oauth_token' => env('SLACK_BOT_USER_OAUTH_TOKEN'),
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'channel' => env('SLACK_BOT_USER_DEFAULT_CHANNEL'),
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],
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],
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'fuel_finder' => [
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'base_url' => env('FUEL_FINDER_BASE_URL', 'https://www.fuel-finder.service.gov.uk/api/v1'),
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'client_id' => env('FUEL_FINDER_CLIENT_ID'),
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'client_secret' => env('FUEL_FINDER_CLIENT_SECRET'),
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],
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'fred' => [
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'api_key' => env('FRED_API_KEY'),
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],
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'eia' => [
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'api_key' => env('EIA_API_KEY'),
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],
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'anthropic' => [
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'api_key' => env('ANTHROPIC_API_KEY'),
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'model' => env('ANTHROPIC_MODEL', 'claude-sonnet-4-6'),
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],
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'openai' => [
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'api_key' => env('OPENAI_API_KEY'),
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'model' => env('OPENAI_MODEL', 'gpt-4o-mini'),
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],
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'gemini' => [
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'api_key' => env('GEMINI_API_KEY'),
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'model' => env('GEMINI_MODEL', 'gemini-2.0-flash'),
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],
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'llm' => [
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'provider' => env('LLM_PREDICTION_PROVIDER', 'anthropic'),
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],
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'forecasting' => [
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// Phase 9 station-churn trigger is gated until ≥180 days of stable
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// polling. Flip on once `station_prices` has continuous coverage —
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// see `.claude/rules/forecasting.md`.
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'station_churn_enabled' => env('FORECASTING_STATION_CHURN_ENABLED', false),
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],
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'fuelalert' => [
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'api_key' => env('FUELALERT_API_KEY'),
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],
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'onesignal' => [
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'app_id' => env('ONESIGNAL_APP_ID'),
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'api_key' => env('ONESIGNAL_API_KEY'),
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],
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'vonage' => [
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'key' => env('VONAGE_KEY'),
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'secret' => env('VONAGE_SECRET'),
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'whatsapp_from' => env('VONAGE_WHATSAPP_FROM'),
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'sms_from' => env('VONAGE_SMS_FROM', 'FuelAlert'),
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],
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'stripe' => [
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'prices' => [
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'basic' => [
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'monthly' => env('STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_MONTHLY'),
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'annual' => env('STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_ANNUAL'),
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],
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'plus' => [
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'monthly' => env('STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_MONTHLY'),
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'annual' => env('STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_ANNUAL'),
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],
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'pro' => [
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'monthly' => env('STRIPE_PRICE_PRO_MONTHLY'),
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'annual' => env('STRIPE_PRICE_PRO_ANNUAL'),
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],
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],
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],
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];
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