Remove prediction API endpoint and integrate into stations search

Consolidate prediction functionality by merging /api/prediction endpoint into /api/stations response. Move prediction logic from PredictionController into StationController, returning prediction data alongside station results. Replace usePrediction composable with unified useStations that returns {stations, meta, prediction}. Remove PredictionRequest, related tests, and unused Vue components (FuelFinderTest, MapTest, RecommendationTest, StationListTest). Add PredictionFull component and UpsellBanner. Extend NationalFuelPredictionService to include weekly_summary (7-day series, yesterday/today averages, cheapest/priciest days) and oil signal from price_predictions table. Update Home.vue to consume prediction from stations response. Add Plan::resolveCadenceForUser helper and configure Cashier to use custom Subscription model.
2026-04-29 13:28:33 +01:00
parent ee6de23709
commit 088fd11058
29 changed files with 1046 additions and 499 deletions
--- a/tests/Unit/Services/NationalFuelPredictionServiceTest.php
+++ b/tests/Unit/Services/NationalFuelPredictionServiceTest.php
@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ use App\Models\StationPrice;
 use App\Models\StationPriceCurrent;
 use App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService;
 use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;

 uses(RefreshDatabase::class);

@@ -78,14 +79,96 @@ it('includes all required keys in response', function () {
            'fuel_type', 'current_avg', 'predicted_direction', 'predicted_change_pence',
            'confidence_score', 'confidence_label', 'action', 'reasoning',
            'prediction_horizon_days', 'region_key', 'methodology',
-            'signals',
+            'weekly_summary', 'signals',
        ])
        ->and($result['signals'])->toHaveKeys([
            'trend', 'day_of_week', 'brand_behaviour',
-            'national_momentum', 'regional_momentum', 'price_stickiness',
+            'national_momentum', 'regional_momentum', 'price_stickiness', 'oil',
+        ])
+        ->and($result['weekly_summary'])->toHaveKeys([
+            'yesterday_avg', 'today_avg', 'tomorrow_estimated_avg',
+            'yesterday_today_delta_pence', 'last_7_days_series',
+            'last_7_days_change_pence', 'cheapest_day', 'priciest_day', 'is_regional',
        ]);
 });

+it('weekly_summary returns null prices and empty series when there is no data', function () {
+    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
+    $weekly = $result['weekly_summary'];
+
+    expect($weekly['yesterday_avg'])->toBeNull()
+        ->and($weekly['yesterday_today_delta_pence'])->toBeNull()
+        ->and($weekly['last_7_days_series'])->toBe([])
+        ->and($weekly['cheapest_day'])->toBeNull()
+        ->and($weekly['priciest_day'])->toBeNull()
+        ->and($weekly['is_regional'])->toBeFalse();
+});
+
+it('weekly_summary populates yesterday avg, today avg and 7-day series from station_prices', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create();
+    StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create([
+        'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+        'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
+        'price_pence' => 14000,
+    ]);
+
+    for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
+        StationPrice::factory()->create([
+            'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+            'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
+            'price_pence' => 14000 + ($daysAgo * 50),
+            'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
+    $weekly = $result['weekly_summary'];
+
+    expect($weekly['yesterday_avg'])->toBe(140.5)
+        ->and($weekly['today_avg'])->toBe(140.0)
+        ->and($weekly['yesterday_today_delta_pence'])->toBe(-0.5)
+        ->and(count($weekly['last_7_days_series']))->toBe(7)
+        ->and($weekly['cheapest_day']['avg'])->toBe(140.0)
+        ->and($weekly['priciest_day']['avg'])->toBe(143.0);
+});
+
+it('weekly_summary falls back from regional to national when regional data is empty', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create(['lat' => 51.5, 'lng' => -0.1]);
+
+    for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
+        StationPrice::factory()->create([
+            'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+            'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
+            'price_pence' => 14000,
+            'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    // Coordinates 600+ km away from any station — no regional data available.
+    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(58.0, -3.0);
+    $weekly = $result['weekly_summary'];
+
+    expect($weekly['is_regional'])->toBeFalse()
+        ->and(count($weekly['last_7_days_series']))->toBe(7);
+});
+
+it('weekly_summary marks is_regional true when stations exist within 50km of coordinates', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create(['lat' => 51.5, 'lng' => -0.1]);
+
+    for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
+        StationPrice::factory()->create([
+            'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+            'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
+            'price_pence' => 14000,
+            'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(51.5074, -0.1278);
+
+    expect($result['weekly_summary']['is_regional'])->toBeTrue();
+});
+
 it('always returns e10 as fuel_type', function () {
    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();

@@ -146,3 +229,166 @@ it('disables trend signal when r_squared is below 0.5', function () {
    // Trend signal may be disabled if both 5-day and 14-day lookbacks fail R² threshold
    expect($result['signals']['trend']['data_points'])->toBeInt();
 });
+
+it('oil signal is disabled when no price_predictions row covers today or later', function () {
+    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
+
+    expect($result['signals']['oil']['enabled'])->toBeFalse();
+});
+
+it('oil signal picks up an llm prediction over an ewma one for the same date', function () {
+    DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([
+        [
+            'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
+            'source' => 'ewma',
+            'direction' => 'flat',
+            'confidence' => 60,
+            'reasoning' => null,
+            'generated_at' => now()->subHour(),
+        ],
+        [
+            'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
+            'source' => 'llm',
+            'direction' => 'rising',
+            'confidence' => 75,
+            'reasoning' => 'OPEC cut',
+            'generated_at' => now(),
+        ],
+    ]);
+
+    $oil = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict()['signals']['oil'];
+
+    expect($oil['enabled'])->toBeTrue()
+        ->and($oil['direction'])->toBe('up')
+        ->and($oil['score'])->toBe(1.0)
+        ->and($oil['confidence'])->toBe(0.75);
+});
+
+it('oil signal prefers llm_with_context over plain llm', function () {
+    DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([
+        [
+            'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
+            'source' => 'llm',
+            'direction' => 'falling',
+            'confidence' => 70,
+            'reasoning' => 'baseline',
+            'generated_at' => now(),
+        ],
+        [
+            'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
+            'source' => 'llm_with_context',
+            'direction' => 'rising',
+            'confidence' => 82,
+            'reasoning' => 'with context',
+            'generated_at' => now(),
+        ],
+    ]);
+
+    $oil = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict()['signals']['oil'];
+
+    expect($oil['direction'])->toBe('up')
+        ->and($oil['confidence'])->toBe(0.82);
+});
+
+it('confidence reaches "high" when trend and oil agree strongly', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create();
+
+    // Strong falling trend over 7 days, ~1p/day
+    for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
+        StationPrice::factory()->create([
+            'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+            'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
+            'price_pence' => 15000 - ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100),
+            'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([
+        'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
+        'source' => 'llm',
+        'direction' => 'falling',
+        'confidence' => 80,
+        'reasoning' => 'agree',
+        'generated_at' => now(),
+    ]);
+
+    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
+
+    expect($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('down')
+        ->and($result['confidence_score'])->toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(70)
+        ->and($result['confidence_label'])->toBe('high');
+});
+
+it('confidence drops when trend and oil disagree', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create();
+
+    // Strong falling trend
+    for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
+        StationPrice::factory()->create([
+            'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+            'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
+            'price_pence' => 15000 - ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100),
+            'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    // Oil disagrees: rising
+    DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([
+        'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
+        'source' => 'llm',
+        'direction' => 'rising',
+        'confidence' => 80,
+        'reasoning' => 'opec',
+        'generated_at' => now(),
+    ]);
+
+    $agree = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
+
+    // Replace oil with one that agrees instead — confidence should be higher
+    DB::table('price_predictions')->update([
+        'direction' => 'falling',
+    ]);
+
+    $disagreeReplaced = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
+
+    expect($agree['confidence_score'])->toBeLessThan($disagreeReplaced['confidence_score']);
+});
+
+it('day-of-week signal activates at 21 days of history (no longer 56)', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create();
+
+    for ($daysAgo = 25; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
+        StationPrice::factory()->create([
+            'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+            'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10,
+            'price_pence' => 14000 + ($daysAgo % 7) * 50,
+            'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
+
+    expect($result['signals']['day_of_week']['enabled'])->toBeTrue();
+});
+
+it('reasoning fallback for the wait action does not say "fill up"', function () {
+    // No data → trend disabled, brand disabled, oil disabled.
+    // Force a "down" direction by injecting an oil prediction that points down with low confidence.
+    DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([
+        'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
+        'source' => 'ewma',
+        'direction' => 'falling',
+        'confidence' => 50,
+        'reasoning' => null,
+        'generated_at' => now(),
+    ]);
+
+    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict();
+
+    if ($result['action'] === 'wait') {
+        expect($result['reasoning'])->not->toContain('fill up at the cheapest');
+    } else {
+        // If thresholds keep this at no_signal, still verify action-aware fallback exists
+        expect($result['reasoning'])->toBeString();
+    }
+});