diff --git a/app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php b/app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php
index bbae383..72a95ca 100644
--- a/app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php
+++ b/app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php
@@ -4,23 +4,31 @@ namespace App\Services;
 
 use App\Enums\FuelType;
 use App\Models\StationPriceCurrent;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\BrandBehaviourSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\DayOfWeekSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\OilSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\RegionalMomentumSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\SignalContext;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\StickinessSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\TrendSignal;
 use Carbon\CarbonInterface;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
 
 class NationalFuelPredictionService
 {
-    private const float R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD = 0.5;
-
     private const float SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE = 0.3;
 
-    /** Slope (pence/day) at which trend score saturates to ±1.0. */
-    private const float SLOPE_SATURATION_PENCE = 0.5;
-
-    /** Minimum unique days of history for the day-of-week signal to activate. */
-    private const int DAY_OF_WEEK_MIN_DAYS = 21;
-
     private const int PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS = 7;
 
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly TrendSignal $trendSignal,
+        private readonly DayOfWeekSignal $dayOfWeekSignal,
+        private readonly BrandBehaviourSignal $brandBehaviourSignal,
+        private readonly StickinessSignal $stickinessSignal,
+        private readonly RegionalMomentumSignal $regionalMomentumSignal,
+        private readonly OilSignal $oilSignal,
+    ) {}
+
     /**
      * @return array{
      *     fuel_type: string,
@@ -41,18 +49,17 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
     {
         $fuelType = FuelType::E10;
         $hasCoordinates = $lat !== null && $lng !== null;
+        $context = new SignalContext($fuelType, $lat, $lng);
 
         $currentAvg = $this->getCurrentAverage($fuelType, $lat, $lng);
-        $trend = $this->computeTrendSignal($fuelType);
-        $dayOfWeek = $this->computeDayOfWeekSignal($fuelType);
-        $brandBehaviour = $this->computeBrandBehaviourSignal($fuelType);
-        $stickiness = $this->computeStickinessSignal($fuelType);
-        $oil = $this->computeOilSignal();
+        $trend = $this->trendSignal->compute($context);
+        $dayOfWeek = $this->dayOfWeekSignal->compute($context);
+        $brandBehaviour = $this->brandBehaviourSignal->compute($context);
+        $stickiness = $this->stickinessSignal->compute($context);
+        $oil = $this->oilSignal->compute($context);
 
         $nationalMomentum = $this->disabledSignal('National momentum disabled for national predictions');
-        $regionalMomentum = $hasCoordinates
-            ? $this->computeRegionalMomentumSignal($fuelType, $lat, $lng)
-            : $this->disabledSignal('No coordinates provided for regional momentum analysis');
+        $regionalMomentum = $this->regionalMomentumSignal->compute($context);
 
         $signals = compact('trend', 'dayOfWeek', 'brandBehaviour', 'nationalMomentum', 'regionalMomentum', 'stickiness', 'oil');
 
@@ -121,369 +128,6 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
         return $avg !== null ? round((float) $avg / 100, 1) : 0.0;
     }
 
-    /**
-     * Linear regression on daily national average prices.
-     * Tries 5-day lookback first; falls back to 14-day if R² < threshold.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool, slope: float, r_squared: float}
-     */
-    private function computeTrendSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
-    {
-        foreach ([5, 14] as $lookbackDays) {
-            $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-                ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-                ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays($lookbackDays))
-                ->selectRaw('DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price')
-                ->groupBy('day')
-                ->orderBy('day')
-                ->get();
-
-            if ($rows->count() < 2) {
-                continue;
-            }
-
-            $regression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all());
-
-            if ($regression['r_squared'] >= self::R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD) {
-                $slope = $regression['slope'];
-                $direction = match (true) {
-                    $slope >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
-                    $slope <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
-                    default => 'stable',
-                };
-                $absSlope = abs($slope);
-                $score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : min(1.0, $absSlope / self::SLOPE_SATURATION_PENCE) * ($slope > 0 ? 1 : -1);
-                $projected = round($slope * $lookbackDays, 1);
-                $detail = $direction === 'stable'
-                    ? "Prices flat over {$lookbackDays} days (slope: {$slope}p/day, R²={$regression['r_squared']})"
-                    : sprintf(
-                        '%s at %sp/day over %d days (R²=%s, ~%s%sp in %dd)',
-                        $slope > 0 ? 'Rising' : 'Falling',
-                        abs(round($slope, 2)),
-                        $lookbackDays,
-                        round($regression['r_squared'], 2),
-                        $projected > 0 ? '+' : '',
-                        $projected,
-                        self::PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS,
-                    );
-
-                if ($lookbackDays === 5) {
-                    $detail .= ' [Adaptive lookback active]';
-                }
-
-                return [
-                    'score' => $score,
-                    'confidence' => min(1.0, $regression['r_squared']),
-                    'direction' => $direction,
-                    'detail' => $detail,
-                    'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-                    'enabled' => true,
-                    'slope' => round($slope, 3),
-                    'r_squared' => round($regression['r_squared'], 3),
-                ];
-            }
-        }
-
-        return [
-            'score' => 0.0,
-            'confidence' => 0.0,
-            'direction' => 'stable',
-            'detail' => 'Insufficient price history or noisy data (R² below threshold)',
-            'data_points' => 0,
-            'enabled' => false,
-            'slope' => 0.0,
-            'r_squared' => 0.0,
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Compare today's average price against the per-weekday average over 90 days.
-     * Requires 56+ days of history to activate.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
-     */
-    private function computeDayOfWeekSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
-    {
-        $isSqlite = DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite';
-        $dowExpr = $isSqlite
-            ? "(CAST(strftime('%w', price_effective_at) AS INTEGER) + 1)"
-            : 'DAYOFWEEK(price_effective_at)';
-
-        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-            ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-            ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(90))
-            ->selectRaw("{$dowExpr} as dow, DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price")
-            ->groupBy('dow', 'day')
-            ->get();
-
-        $uniqueDays = $rows->pluck('day')->unique()->count();
-
-        if ($uniqueDays < self::DAY_OF_WEEK_MIN_DAYS) {
-            return $this->disabledSignal("Insufficient history for day-of-week pattern ({$uniqueDays} days, need ".self::DAY_OF_WEEK_MIN_DAYS.')');
-        }
-
-        $dowAverages = $rows->groupBy('dow')->map(fn ($g) => $g->avg('avg_price'));
-        $weekAvg = $dowAverages->avg();
-        $todayDow = (int) now()->format('w') + 1; // PHP 0=Sun → MySQL 1=Sun
-        $todayAvg = $dowAverages->get($todayDow, $weekAvg);
-        $cheapestDow = $dowAverages->keys()->sortBy(fn ($k) => $dowAverages[$k])->first();
-        $dayNames = ['Sun', 'Mon', 'Tue', 'Wed', 'Thu', 'Fri', 'Sat'];
-        $todayName = $dayNames[($todayDow - 1) % 7] ?? 'Today';
-        $tomorrowName = $dayNames[$todayDow % 7] ?? 'Tomorrow';
-
-        $todayDeltaPence = round(($todayAvg - $weekAvg) / 100, 1);
-        $tomorrowDeltaPence = round(($dowAverages->get(($todayDow % 7) + 1, $weekAvg) - $todayAvg) / 100, 1);
-
-        $direction = match (true) {
-            ($todayAvg - $weekAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'up',
-            ($weekAvg - $todayAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'down',
-            default => 'stable',
-        };
-
-        $score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0);
-
-        $parts = [];
-        $parts[] = abs($todayDeltaPence) < 0.1
-            ? "Today ({$todayName}) is typically in line with the weekly average."
-            : sprintf(
-                'Today (%s) is typically %sp %s the weekly average.',
-                $todayName,
-                number_format(abs($todayDeltaPence), 1),
-                $todayDeltaPence > 0 ? 'above' : 'below',
-            );
-
-        $parts[] = abs($tomorrowDeltaPence) < 0.1
-            ? "Tomorrow ({$tomorrowName}) is typically the same."
-            : sprintf(
-                'Tomorrow (%s) is typically %sp %s.',
-                $tomorrowName,
-                number_format(abs($tomorrowDeltaPence), 1),
-                $tomorrowDeltaPence < 0 ? 'cheaper' : 'pricier',
-            );
-
-        if ($cheapestDow === $todayDow) {
-            $parts[] = 'Today is historically the cheapest day of the week.';
-        }
-
-        return [
-            'score' => $score,
-            'confidence' => min(1.0, $uniqueDays / 90),
-            'direction' => $direction,
-            'detail' => implode(' ', $parts),
-            'data_points' => $uniqueDays,
-            'enabled' => true,
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Compare supermarket vs non-supermarket 7-day price trend.
-     * Detects divergence where one group has moved but the other hasn't yet.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
-     */
-    private function computeBrandBehaviourSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
-    {
-        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-            ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
-            ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-            ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(7))
-            ->selectRaw('stations.is_supermarket, DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
-            ->groupBy('stations.is_supermarket', 'day')
-            ->orderBy('day')
-            ->get();
-
-        $supermarket = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 1)->values();
-        $major = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 0)->values();
-
-        if ($supermarket->count() < 2 || $major->count() < 2) {
-            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient brand data for comparison');
-        }
-
-        $supermarketSlope = $this->linearRegression($supermarket->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
-        $majorSlope = $this->linearRegression($major->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
-
-        $divergence = round(abs($supermarketSlope - $majorSlope) * 7, 1);
-        $supermarketChange = round($supermarketSlope * 7, 1);
-        $majorChange = round($majorSlope * 7, 1);
-
-        if ($divergence < 1.0) {
-            return [
-                'score' => 0.0,
-                'confidence' => 0.5,
-                'direction' => 'stable',
-                'detail' => 'Supermarkets and majors moving in sync.',
-                'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-                'enabled' => true,
-            ];
-        }
-
-        $leaderChange = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? $supermarketChange : $majorChange;
-        $direction = $leaderChange > 0 ? 'up' : 'down';
-        $leader = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? 'Supermarkets' : 'Majors';
-        $follower = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? 'majors' : 'supermarkets';
-        $leaderAbs = abs($leaderChange);
-        $followerChange = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? abs($majorChange) : abs($supermarketChange);
-
-        return [
-            'score' => $direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0,
-            'confidence' => min(1.0, $divergence / 5.0),
-            'direction' => $direction,
-            'detail' => "{$leader} ".($leaderChange > 0 ? 'rose' : 'fell')." {$leaderAbs}p vs {$follower} {$followerChange}p (divergence: {$divergence}p). Expect {$follower} to follow.",
-            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-            'enabled' => true,
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Average hold duration (days between price changes) as a confidence modifier.
-     * Requires 30+ days of history. Returns a score between -0.1 and +0.1.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
-     */
-    private function computeStickinessSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
-    {
-        $isSqlite = DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite';
-        $diffExpr = $isSqlite
-            ? 'CAST((julianday(MAX(price_effective_at)) - julianday(MIN(price_effective_at))) AS INTEGER)'
-            : 'DATEDIFF(MAX(price_effective_at), MIN(price_effective_at))';
-
-        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-            ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-            ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(30))
-            ->selectRaw("station_id, COUNT(*) as changes, {$diffExpr} as span_days")
-            ->groupBy('station_id')
-            ->having('changes', '>', 1)
-            ->having('span_days', '>', 0)
-            ->get();
-
-        if ($rows->count() < 10) {
-            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient stickiness data (need 10+ stations with price history)');
-        }
-
-        $avgHoldDays = $rows->avg(fn ($r) => $r->span_days / ($r->changes - 1));
-        $avgHoldDays = round((float) $avgHoldDays, 1);
-
-        $score = match (true) {
-            $avgHoldDays < 2 => -0.1,
-            $avgHoldDays > 5 => 0.1,
-            default => 0.0,
-        };
-
-        $detail = match (true) {
-            $avgHoldDays < 2 => "Volatile prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — harder to predict.",
-            $avgHoldDays > 5 => "Sticky prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — more predictable.",
-            default => "Normal hold period (avg: {$avgHoldDays} days).",
-        };
-
-        return [
-            'score' => $score,
-            'confidence' => min(1.0, $rows->count() / 200),
-            'direction' => 'stable',
-            'detail' => $detail,
-            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-            'enabled' => true,
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Placeholder for regional momentum signal (requires lat/lng).
-     * Compares local station prices vs national average trend.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
-     */
-    private function computeRegionalMomentumSignal(FuelType $fuelType, float $lat, float $lng): array
-    {
-        // Regional momentum: compare trend of stations within 50km vs national trend
-        [$radiusSql, $radiusBindings] = HaversineQuery::withinKm($lat, $lng, 50);
-
-        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-            ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
-            ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-            ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(14))
-            ->whereRaw($radiusSql, $radiusBindings)
-            ->selectRaw('DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
-            ->groupBy('day')
-            ->orderBy('day')
-            ->get();
-
-        if ($rows->count() < 3) {
-            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient regional data');
-        }
-
-        $regionalRegression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all());
-        $direction = match (true) {
-            $regionalRegression['slope'] >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
-            $regionalRegression['slope'] <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
-            default => 'stable',
-        };
-
-        return [
-            'score' => $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 0.7 : -0.7),
-            'confidence' => min(1.0, $regionalRegression['r_squared']),
-            'direction' => $direction,
-            'detail' => 'Regional trend: '.round($regionalRegression['slope'], 2).'p/day (R²='.round($regionalRegression['r_squared'], 2).')',
-            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-            'enabled' => true,
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Reads the most recent Brent crude prediction (LLM preferred, EWMA fallback)
-     * covering today or later. Sourced from price_predictions, which OilPriceService
-     * populates daily.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
-     */
-    private function computeOilSignal(): array
-    {
-        $prediction = null;
-
-        foreach (['llm_with_context', 'llm', 'ewma'] as $source) {
-            $prediction = DB::table('price_predictions')
-                ->where('source', $source)
-                ->where('predicted_for', '>=', now()->toDateString())
-                ->orderByDesc('predicted_for')
-                ->orderByDesc('generated_at')
-                ->first();
-
-            if ($prediction !== null) {
-                break;
-            }
-        }
-
-        if ($prediction === null) {
-            return $this->disabledSignal('No oil price prediction available');
-        }
-
-        $direction = match ($prediction->direction) {
-            'rising' => 'up',
-            'falling' => 'down',
-            default => 'stable',
-        };
-
-        $score = match ($direction) {
-            'up' => 1.0,
-            'down' => -1.0,
-            default => 0.0,
-        };
-
-        $confidence = round(((float) $prediction->confidence) / 100, 2);
-
-        return [
-            'score' => $score,
-            'confidence' => $confidence,
-            'direction' => $direction,
-            'detail' => sprintf(
-                'Brent crude %s (%s, %d%% confidence)',
-                $prediction->direction,
-                $prediction->source,
-                (int) $prediction->confidence,
-            ),
-            'data_points' => 1,
-            'enabled' => true,
-        ];
-    }
-
     /** @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool} */
     private function disabledSignal(string $detail): array
     {
@@ -736,47 +380,6 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
         return [$series, $usedRegional];
     }
 
-    /**
-     * Least-squares linear regression.
-     * x is the array index (day number), y is the price value.
-     *
-     * @param  float[]  $values
-     * @return array{slope: float, r_squared: float}
-     */
-    private function linearRegression(array $values): array
-    {
-        $n = count($values);
-        if ($n < 2) {
-            return ['slope' => 0.0, 'r_squared' => 0.0];
-        }
-
-        $xMean = ($n - 1) / 2.0;
-        $yMean = array_sum($values) / $n;
-
-        $numerator = 0.0;
-        $denominator = 0.0;
-
-        foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
-            $x = $i - $xMean;
-            $numerator += $x * ($y - $yMean);
-            $denominator += $x * $x;
-        }
-
-        $slope = $denominator > 0.0 ? $numerator / $denominator : 0.0;
-
-        $ssRes = 0.0;
-        $ssTot = 0.0;
-        foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
-            $predicted = $yMean + $slope * ($i - $xMean);
-            $ssRes += ($y - $predicted) ** 2;
-            $ssTot += ($y - $yMean) ** 2;
-        }
-
-        $rSquared = $ssTot > 0.0 ? max(0.0, 1.0 - ($ssRes / $ssTot)) : 0.0;
-
-        return ['slope' => $slope, 'r_squared' => $rSquared];
-    }
-
     /**
      * @param  array{enabled: bool, detail: string, direction: string}  $trend
      * @param  array{enabled: bool, detail: string, direction: string}  $brandBehaviour
diff --git a/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/AbstractSignal.php b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/AbstractSignal.php
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..333db26
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/AbstractSignal.php
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+abstract class AbstractSignal implements Signal
+{
+    /** @return array{score: 0.0, confidence: 0.0, direction: 'stable', detail: string, data_points: 0, enabled: false} */
+    protected function disabledSignal(string $detail): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'score' => 0.0,
+            'confidence' => 0.0,
+            'direction' => 'stable',
+            'detail' => $detail,
+            'data_points' => 0,
+            'enabled' => false,
+        ];
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Least-squares linear regression. x = array index, y = value.
+     *
+     * @param  float[]  $values
+     * @return array{slope: float, r_squared: float}
+     */
+    protected function linearRegression(array $values): array
+    {
+        $n = count($values);
+
+        if ($n < 2) {
+            return ['slope' => 0.0, 'r_squared' => 0.0];
+        }
+
+        $xMean = ($n - 1) / 2.0;
+        $yMean = array_sum($values) / $n;
+
+        $numerator = 0.0;
+        $denominator = 0.0;
+
+        foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
+            $x = $i - $xMean;
+            $numerator += $x * ($y - $yMean);
+            $denominator += $x * $x;
+        }
+
+        $slope = $denominator > 0.0 ? $numerator / $denominator : 0.0;
+
+        $ssRes = 0.0;
+        $ssTot = 0.0;
+
+        foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
+            $predicted = $yMean + $slope * ($i - $xMean);
+            $ssRes += ($y - $predicted) ** 2;
+            $ssTot += ($y - $yMean) ** 2;
+        }
+
+        $rSquared = $ssTot > 0.0 ? max(0.0, 1.0 - ($ssRes / $ssTot)) : 0.0;
+
+        return ['slope' => $slope, 'r_squared' => $rSquared];
+    }
+}
diff --git a/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/BrandBehaviourSignal.php b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/BrandBehaviourSignal.php
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..4e31a99
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/BrandBehaviourSignal.php
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class BrandBehaviourSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
+            ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+            ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(7))
+            ->selectRaw('stations.is_supermarket, DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
+            ->groupBy('stations.is_supermarket', 'day')
+            ->orderBy('day')
+            ->get();
+
+        $supermarket = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 1)->values();
+        $major = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 0)->values();
+
+        if ($supermarket->count() < 2 || $major->count() < 2) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient brand data for comparison');
+        }
+
+        $supermarketSlope = $this->linearRegression($supermarket->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
+        $majorSlope = $this->linearRegression($major->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
+
+        $divergence = round(abs($supermarketSlope - $majorSlope) * 7, 1);
+        $supermarketChange = round($supermarketSlope * 7, 1);
+        $majorChange = round($majorSlope * 7, 1);
+
+        if ($divergence < 1.0) {
+            return [
+                'score' => 0.0,
+                'confidence' => 0.5,
+                'direction' => 'stable',
+                'detail' => 'Supermarkets and majors moving in sync.',
+                'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+                'enabled' => true,
+            ];
+        }
+
+        $leaderChange = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? $supermarketChange : $majorChange;
+        $direction = $leaderChange > 0 ? 'up' : 'down';
+        $leader = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? 'Supermarkets' : 'Majors';
+        $follower = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? 'majors' : 'supermarkets';
+        $leaderAbs = abs($leaderChange);
+        $followerChange = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? abs($majorChange) : abs($supermarketChange);
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0,
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $divergence / 5.0),
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => "{$leader} ".($leaderChange > 0 ? 'rose' : 'fell')." {$leaderAbs}p vs {$follower} {$followerChange}p (divergence: {$divergence}p). Expect {$follower} to follow.",
+            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}
diff --git a/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/DayOfWeekSignal.php b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/DayOfWeekSignal.php
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..8149c51
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/DayOfWeekSignal.php
@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class DayOfWeekSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    private const int MIN_DAYS = 21;
+
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        $isSqlite = DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite';
+        $dowExpr = $isSqlite
+            ? "(CAST(strftime('%w', price_effective_at) AS INTEGER) + 1)"
+            : 'DAYOFWEEK(price_effective_at)';
+
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->where('fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+            ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(90))
+            ->selectRaw("{$dowExpr} as dow, DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price")
+            ->groupBy('dow', 'day')
+            ->get();
+
+        $uniqueDays = $rows->pluck('day')->unique()->count();
+
+        if ($uniqueDays < self::MIN_DAYS) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal("Insufficient history for day-of-week pattern ({$uniqueDays} days, need ".self::MIN_DAYS.')');
+        }
+
+        $dowAverages = $rows->groupBy('dow')->map(fn ($g) => $g->avg('avg_price'));
+        $weekAvg = $dowAverages->avg();
+        $todayDow = (int) now()->format('w') + 1; // PHP 0=Sun → MySQL 1=Sun
+        $todayAvg = $dowAverages->get($todayDow, $weekAvg);
+        $cheapestDow = $dowAverages->keys()->sortBy(fn ($k) => $dowAverages[$k])->first();
+        $dayNames = ['Sun', 'Mon', 'Tue', 'Wed', 'Thu', 'Fri', 'Sat'];
+        $todayName = $dayNames[($todayDow - 1) % 7] ?? 'Today';
+        $tomorrowName = $dayNames[$todayDow % 7] ?? 'Tomorrow';
+
+        $todayDeltaPence = round(($todayAvg - $weekAvg) / 100, 1);
+        $tomorrowDeltaPence = round(($dowAverages->get(($todayDow % 7) + 1, $weekAvg) - $todayAvg) / 100, 1);
+
+        $direction = match (true) {
+            ($todayAvg - $weekAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'up',
+            ($weekAvg - $todayAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'down',
+            default => 'stable',
+        };
+
+        $score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0);
+
+        $parts = [];
+        $parts[] = abs($todayDeltaPence) < 0.1
+            ? "Today ({$todayName}) is typically in line with the weekly average."
+            : sprintf(
+                'Today (%s) is typically %sp %s the weekly average.',
+                $todayName,
+                number_format(abs($todayDeltaPence), 1),
+                $todayDeltaPence > 0 ? 'above' : 'below',
+            );
+
+        $parts[] = abs($tomorrowDeltaPence) < 0.1
+            ? "Tomorrow ({$tomorrowName}) is typically the same."
+            : sprintf(
+                'Tomorrow (%s) is typically %sp %s.',
+                $tomorrowName,
+                number_format(abs($tomorrowDeltaPence), 1),
+                $tomorrowDeltaPence < 0 ? 'cheaper' : 'pricier',
+            );
+
+        if ($cheapestDow === $todayDow) {
+            $parts[] = 'Today is historically the cheapest day of the week.';
+        }
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $score,
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $uniqueDays / 90),
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => implode(' ', $parts),
+            'data_points' => $uniqueDays,
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}
diff --git a/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/OilSignal.php b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/OilSignal.php
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..2e46889
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/OilSignal.php
@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class OilSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    /**
+     * Reads the most recent Brent crude prediction (LLM preferred, EWMA
+     * fallback) covering today or later. Sourced from price_predictions,
+     * which OilPriceService populates daily.
+     */
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        $prediction = null;
+
+        foreach (['llm_with_context', 'llm', 'ewma'] as $source) {
+            $prediction = DB::table('price_predictions')
+                ->where('source', $source)
+                ->where('predicted_for', '>=', now()->toDateString())
+                ->orderByDesc('predicted_for')
+                ->orderByDesc('generated_at')
+                ->first();
+
+            if ($prediction !== null) {
+                break;
+            }
+        }
+
+        if ($prediction === null) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('No oil price prediction available');
+        }
+
+        $direction = match ($prediction->direction) {
+            'rising' => 'up',
+            'falling' => 'down',
+            default => 'stable',
+        };
+
+        $score = match ($direction) {
+            'up' => 1.0,
+            'down' => -1.0,
+            default => 0.0,
+        };
+
+        $confidence = round(((float) $prediction->confidence) / 100, 2);
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $score,
+            'confidence' => $confidence,
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => sprintf(
+                'Brent crude %s (%s, %d%% confidence)',
+                $prediction->direction,
+                $prediction->source,
+                (int) $prediction->confidence,
+            ),
+            'data_points' => 1,
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}
diff --git a/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/RegionalMomentumSignal.php b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/RegionalMomentumSignal.php
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..39e6088
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/RegionalMomentumSignal.php
@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use App\Services\HaversineQuery;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class RegionalMomentumSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    private const float SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE = 0.3;
+
+    private const float REGIONAL_RADIUS_KM = 50.0;
+
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        if (! $context->hasCoordinates()) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('No coordinates provided for regional momentum analysis');
+        }
+
+        [$radiusSql, $radiusBindings] = HaversineQuery::withinKm($context->lat, $context->lng, self::REGIONAL_RADIUS_KM);
+
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
+            ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+            ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(14))
+            ->whereRaw($radiusSql, $radiusBindings)
+            ->selectRaw('DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
+            ->groupBy('day')
+            ->orderBy('day')
+            ->get();
+
+        if ($rows->count() < 3) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient regional data');
+        }
+
+        $regression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all());
+        $direction = match (true) {
+            $regression['slope'] >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
+            $regression['slope'] <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
+            default => 'stable',
+        };
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 0.7 : -0.7),
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $regression['r_squared']),
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => 'Regional trend: '.round($regression['slope'], 2).'p/day (R²='.round($regression['r_squared'], 2).')',
+            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}
diff --git a/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/Signal.php b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/Signal.php
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f5637f1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/Signal.php
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+interface Signal
+{
+    /**
+     * Evaluate the signal against the given context.
+     *
+     * Returns the canonical signal payload. Implementations may add extra
+     * keys beyond the base shape (e.g. trend adds slope + r_squared).
+     *
+     * @return array{
+     *     score: float,
+     *     confidence: float,
+     *     direction: string,
+     *     detail: string,
+     *     data_points: int,
+     *     enabled: bool,
+     *     ...
+     * }
+     */
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array;
+}
diff --git a/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/SignalContext.php b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/SignalContext.php
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..9e9ff31
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/SignalContext.php
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+
+/**
+ * Inputs required to evaluate a prediction signal. Individual signals may
+ * ignore fields they don't need — for example OilSignal doesn't use fuelType,
+ * RegionalMomentumSignal requires lat/lng to be non-null.
+ */
+final readonly class SignalContext
+{
+    public function __construct(
+        public FuelType $fuelType,
+        public ?float $lat = null,
+        public ?float $lng = null,
+    ) {}
+
+    public function hasCoordinates(): bool
+    {
+        return $this->lat !== null && $this->lng !== null;
+    }
+}
diff --git a/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/StickinessSignal.php b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/StickinessSignal.php
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..89af42a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/StickinessSignal.php
@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class StickinessSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        $isSqlite = DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite';
+        $diffExpr = $isSqlite
+            ? 'CAST((julianday(MAX(price_effective_at)) - julianday(MIN(price_effective_at))) AS INTEGER)'
+            : 'DATEDIFF(MAX(price_effective_at), MIN(price_effective_at))';
+
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->where('fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+            ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(30))
+            ->selectRaw("station_id, COUNT(*) as changes, {$diffExpr} as span_days")
+            ->groupBy('station_id')
+            ->having('changes', '>', 1)
+            ->having('span_days', '>', 0)
+            ->get();
+
+        if ($rows->count() < 10) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient stickiness data (need 10+ stations with price history)');
+        }
+
+        $avgHoldDays = $rows->avg(fn ($r) => $r->span_days / ($r->changes - 1));
+        $avgHoldDays = round((float) $avgHoldDays, 1);
+
+        $score = match (true) {
+            $avgHoldDays < 2 => -0.1,
+            $avgHoldDays > 5 => 0.1,
+            default => 0.0,
+        };
+
+        $detail = match (true) {
+            $avgHoldDays < 2 => "Volatile prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — harder to predict.",
+            $avgHoldDays > 5 => "Sticky prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — more predictable.",
+            default => "Normal hold period (avg: {$avgHoldDays} days).",
+        };
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $score,
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $rows->count() / 200),
+            'direction' => 'stable',
+            'detail' => $detail,
+            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}
diff --git a/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/TrendSignal.php b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/TrendSignal.php
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..6e33f24
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/Services/Prediction/Signals/TrendSignal.php
@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class TrendSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    private const float R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD = 0.5;
+
+    private const float SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE = 0.3;
+
+    private const float SLOPE_SATURATION_PENCE = 0.5;
+
+    private const int PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS = 7;
+
+    /** @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool, slope: float, r_squared: float} */
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        foreach ([5, 14] as $lookbackDays) {
+            $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+                ->where('fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+                ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays($lookbackDays))
+                ->selectRaw('DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price')
+                ->groupBy('day')
+                ->orderBy('day')
+                ->get();
+
+            if ($rows->count() < 2) {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            $regression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all());
+
+            if ($regression['r_squared'] >= self::R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD) {
+                $slope = $regression['slope'];
+                $direction = match (true) {
+                    $slope >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
+                    $slope <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
+                    default => 'stable',
+                };
+                $absSlope = abs($slope);
+                $score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : min(1.0, $absSlope / self::SLOPE_SATURATION_PENCE) * ($slope > 0 ? 1 : -1);
+                $projected = round($slope * $lookbackDays, 1);
+                $detail = $direction === 'stable'
+                    ? "Prices flat over {$lookbackDays} days (slope: {$slope}p/day, R²={$regression['r_squared']})"
+                    : sprintf(
+                        '%s at %sp/day over %d days (R²=%s, ~%s%sp in %dd)',
+                        $slope > 0 ? 'Rising' : 'Falling',
+                        abs(round($slope, 2)),
+                        $lookbackDays,
+                        round($regression['r_squared'], 2),
+                        $projected > 0 ? '+' : '',
+                        $projected,
+                        self::PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS,
+                    );
+
+                if ($lookbackDays === 5) {
+                    $detail .= ' [Adaptive lookback active]';
+                }
+
+                return [
+                    'score' => $score,
+                    'confidence' => min(1.0, $regression['r_squared']),
+                    'direction' => $direction,
+                    'detail' => $detail,
+                    'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+                    'enabled' => true,
+                    'slope' => round($slope, 3),
+                    'r_squared' => round($regression['r_squared'], 3),
+                ];
+            }
+        }
+
+        return [
+            'score' => 0.0,
+            'confidence' => 0.0,
+            'direction' => 'stable',
+            'detail' => 'Insufficient price history or noisy data (R² below threshold)',
+            'data_points' => 0,
+            'enabled' => false,
+            'slope' => 0.0,
+            'r_squared' => 0.0,
+        ];
+    }
+}