prediction with context

2026-04-05 17:08:16 +01:00
parent 0bea50b843
commit 3ccdc28763
9 changed files with 239 additions and 142 deletions
--- a/tests/Unit/Services/OilPriceServiceTest.php
+++ b/tests/Unit/Services/OilPriceServiceTest.php
@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
 uses(RefreshDatabase::class);

 beforeEach(function (): void {
+    Http::preventStrayRequests();
    $this->service = new OilPriceService(new ApiLogger);
 });

@@ -39,7 +40,7 @@ it('filters out FRED missing value markers', function (): void {
        '*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::response([
            'observations' => [
                ['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'],
-                ['date' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '.'],  // weekend/holiday
+                ['date' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '.'],
                ['date' => '2026-04-03', 'value' => '74.20'],
            ],
        ]),
@@ -105,7 +106,7 @@ it('returns flat when price movement is within threshold', function (): void {
        ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(50);
 });

-it('returns null when fewer than 14 prices are available', function (): void {
+it('returns null when fewer than 14 prices are available for EWMA', function (): void {
    $prices = collect(range(1, 10))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
        'date' => now()->subDays(10 - $i)->toDateString(),
        'price_usd' => 75.0,
@@ -172,9 +173,113 @@ it('returns null when LLM returns malformed JSON', function (): void {
    expect($this->service->generateLlmPrediction($prices))->toBeNull();
 });

+// --- generateLlmPredictionWithContext ---
+
+it('generates LLM prediction with context and returns LlmWithContext source', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0 + $i * 0.5,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":72,"reasoning":"OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward."}']],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
+        ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising)
+        ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(72)
+        ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::LlmWithContext)
+        ->and($prediction->reasoning)->toBe('OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward.');
+
+    Http::assertSentCount(1);
+});
+
+it('sends web_search tool in the context prediction request', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
+        $tools = $request->data()['tools'] ?? [];
+
+        return collect($tools)->contains(fn ($t) => $t['type'] === 'web_search_20260209');
+    });
+});
+
+it('does not include EWMA indicators in the context prediction prompt', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
+        $content = $request->data()['messages'][0]['content'] ?? '';
+
+        return ! str_contains($content, 'EWMA') && ! str_contains($content, 'Pre-computed');
+    });
+});
+
+it('continues on pause_turn and returns final answer', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
+            ->push([
+                'content' => [['type' => 'server_tool_use', 'id' => 'sttool_1', 'name' => 'web_search', 'input' => ['query' => 'Brent crude news']]],
+                'stop_reason' => 'pause_turn',
+            ])
+            ->push([
+                'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"falling","confidence":60,"reasoning":"Demand fears weigh on prices."}']],
+                'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+            ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
+        ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling);
+
+    Http::assertSentCount(2);
+});
+
 // --- generatePrediction (orchestrator) ---

-it('uses LLM when API key is configured', function (): void {
+it('uses LLM with context when API key is configured', function (): void {
    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);

    BrentPrice::insert(
@@ -186,19 +291,42 @@ it('uses LLM when API key is configured', function (): void {

    Http::fake([
        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
-            'content' => [
-                ['text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":70,"reasoning":"Trend is up."}'],
-            ],
+            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":70,"reasoning":"Trend is up."}']],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
        ]),
    ]);

    $prediction = $this->service->generatePrediction();

+    expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::LlmWithContext)
+        ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1);
+});
+
+it('falls back to plain LLM when context method fails', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    BrentPrice::insert(
+        collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => [
+            'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+            'price_usd' => 75.0 + ($i * 0.8),
+        ])->all()
+    );
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
+            ->push([], 500)
+            ->push([
+                'content' => [['text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":70,"reasoning":"Trend up."}']],
+            ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generatePrediction();
+
    expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Llm)
        ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1);
 });

-it('falls back to EWMA when LLM fails', function (): void {
+it('falls back to EWMA when both LLM methods fail', function (): void {
    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);

    BrentPrice::insert(
@@ -227,131 +355,3 @@ it('returns null when there is insufficient price data', function (): void {
    expect($this->service->generatePrediction())->toBeNull()
        ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(0);
 });
-
-// --- generateLlmPredictionWithContext ---
-
-it('generates llm prediction with context using web search and raw prices', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0 + $s->index * 0.5,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
-            'content' => [
-                ['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":72,"reasoning":"OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward."}'],
-            ],
-            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
-        ], 200),
-    ]);
-
-    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
-    $prediction = app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
-
-    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
-        ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising)
-        ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(72)
-        ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Llm)
-        ->and($prediction->reasoning)->toBe('OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward.');
-
-    Http::assertSentCount(1);
-});
-
-it('sends web_search tool in the context prediction request', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
-            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']],
-            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
-        ], 200),
-    ]);
-
-    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
-    app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
-
-    Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
-        $tools = $request->data()['tools'] ?? [];
-
-        return collect($tools)->contains(fn ($t) => $t['type'] === 'web_search_20260209');
-    });
-});
-
-it('does not include ewma indicators in the context prediction request', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
-            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']],
-            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
-        ], 200),
-    ]);
-
-    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
-    app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
-
-    Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
-        $content = $request->data()['messages'][0]['content'] ?? '';
-
-        return ! str_contains($content, 'EWMA') && ! str_contains($content, 'Pre-computed');
-    });
-});
-
-it('context prediction continues on pause_turn and returns final answer', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
-            ->push([
-                'content' => [['type' => 'server_tool_use', 'id' => 'sttool_1', 'name' => 'web_search', 'input' => ['query' => 'Brent crude news']]],
-                'stop_reason' => 'pause_turn',
-            ], 200)
-            ->push([
-                'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"falling","confidence":60,"reasoning":"Demand fears weigh on prices."}']],
-                'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
-            ], 200),
-    ]);
-
-    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
-    $prediction = app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
-
-    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
-        ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling);
-
-    Http::assertSentCount(2);
-});
-
-it('generatePrediction falls through to ewma when both llm methods fail', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([], 500),
-    ]);
-
-    $prediction = app(OilPriceService::class)->generatePrediction();
-
-    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
-        ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma);
-});