prediction with context

app/Enums/PredictionSource.php

@@ -5,5 +5,6 @@ namespace App\Enums;
 enum PredictionSource: string
 {
     case Llm = 'llm';
+    case LlmWithContext = 'llm_with_context';
     case Ewma = 'ewma';
 }

app/Filament/Resources/OilPredictionResource.php

@@ -39,9 +39,14 @@ class OilPredictionResource extends Resource
                     ->sortable(),
                 TextColumn::make('source')
                     ->badge()
-                    ->formatStateUsing(fn (PredictionSource $state) => strtoupper($state->value))
+                    ->formatStateUsing(fn (PredictionSource $state) => match ($state) {
+                        PredictionSource::Llm => 'LLM',
+                        PredictionSource::LlmWithContext => 'LLM + Context',
+                        PredictionSource::Ewma => 'EWMA',
+                    })
                     ->color(fn (PredictionSource $state) => match ($state) {
                         PredictionSource::Llm => 'success',
+                        PredictionSource::LlmWithContext => 'warning',
                         PredictionSource::Ewma => 'info',
                     }),
                 TextColumn::make('direction')
@@ -66,6 +71,7 @@ class OilPredictionResource extends Resource
                 SelectFilter::make('source')
                     ->options([
                         PredictionSource::Llm->value => 'LLM',
+                        PredictionSource::LlmWithContext->value => 'LLM + Context',
                         PredictionSource::Ewma->value => 'EWMA',
                     ]),
                 SelectFilter::make('direction')
@@ -97,9 +103,14 @@ class OilPredictionResource extends Resource
                 TextEntry::make('predicted_for')->date('d M Y'),
                 TextEntry::make('source')
                     ->badge()
-                    ->formatStateUsing(fn (PredictionSource $state) => strtoupper($state->value))
+                    ->formatStateUsing(fn (PredictionSource $state) => match ($state) {
+                        PredictionSource::Llm => 'LLM',
+                        PredictionSource::LlmWithContext => 'LLM + Context',
+                        PredictionSource::Ewma => 'EWMA',
+                    })
                     ->color(fn (PredictionSource $state) => match ($state) {
                         PredictionSource::Llm => 'success',
+                        PredictionSource::LlmWithContext => 'warning',
                         PredictionSource::Ewma => 'info',
                     }),
                 TextEntry::make('direction')

app/Services/OilPriceService.php

@@ -290,7 +290,7 @@ class OilPriceService
 
             return new PricePrediction([
                 'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
-                'source' => PredictionSource::Llm,
+                'source' => PredictionSource::LlmWithContext,
                 'direction' => $direction,
                 'confidence' => $confidence,
                 'reasoning' => $data['reasoning'],

composer.json

@@ -6,10 +6,11 @@
     "keywords": ["laravel", "framework"],
     "license": "MIT",
     "require": {
-        "php": "^8.3",
+        "php": "^8.4",
         "filament/filament": "^5.0",
         "laravel/fortify": "^1.34",
         "laravel/framework": "^13.0",
+        "laravel/sanctum": "^4.0",
         "laravel/tinker": "^3.0",
         "livewire/flux": "^2.12.0",
         "livewire/livewire": "^4.1"

composer.lock

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
         "Read more about it at https://getcomposer.org/doc/01-basic-usage.md#installing-dependencies",
         "This file is @generated automatically"
     ],
-    "content-hash": "7279d4f0e10b9575237a7b483de6d09e",
+    "content-hash": "017a8badf2a8b99d8c2de9909475415f",
     "packages": [
         {
             "name": "bacon/bacon-qr-code",
@@ -2468,6 +2468,69 @@
             },
             "time": "2026-03-23T14:35:33+00:00"
         },
+        {
+            "name": "laravel/sanctum",
+            "version": "v4.3.1",
+            "source": {
+                "type": "git",
+                "url": "https://github.com/laravel/sanctum.git",
+                "reference": "e3b85d6e36ad00e5db2d1dcc27c81ffdf15cbf76"
+            },
+            "dist": {
+                "type": "zip",
+                "url": "https://api.github.com/repos/laravel/sanctum/zipball/e3b85d6e36ad00e5db2d1dcc27c81ffdf15cbf76",
+                "reference": "e3b85d6e36ad00e5db2d1dcc27c81ffdf15cbf76",
+                "shasum": ""
+            },
+            "require": {
+                "ext-json": "*",
+                "illuminate/console": "^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/contracts": "^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/database": "^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/support": "^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "php": "^8.2",
+                "symfony/console": "^7.0|^8.0"
+            },
+            "require-dev": {
+                "mockery/mockery": "^1.6",
+                "orchestra/testbench": "^9.15|^10.8|^11.0",
+                "phpstan/phpstan": "^1.10"
+            },
+            "type": "library",
+            "extra": {
+                "laravel": {
+                    "providers": [
+                        "Laravel\\Sanctum\\SanctumServiceProvider"
+                    ]
+                }
+            },
+            "autoload": {
+                "psr-4": {
+                    "Laravel\\Sanctum\\": "src/"
+                }
+            },
+            "notification-url": "https://packagist.org/downloads/",
+            "license": [
+                "MIT"
+            ],
+            "authors": [
+                {
+                    "name": "Taylor Otwell",
+                    "email": "taylor@laravel.com"
+                }
+            ],
+            "description": "Laravel Sanctum provides a featherweight authentication system for SPAs and simple APIs.",
+            "keywords": [
+                "auth",
+                "laravel",
+                "sanctum"
+            ],
+            "support": {
+                "issues": "https://github.com/laravel/sanctum/issues",
+                "source": "https://github.com/laravel/sanctum"
+            },
+            "time": "2026-02-07T17:19:31+00:00"
+        },
         {
             "name": "laravel/serializable-closure",
             "version": "v2.0.10",

database/migrations/2026_04_04_115852_create_price_predictions_table.php

@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ return new class extends Migration
         Schema::create('price_predictions', function (Blueprint $table) {
             $table->id();
             $table->date('predicted_for')->comment('The date this prediction covers');
-            $table->enum('source', ['llm', 'ewma']);
+            $table->enum('source', ['llm', 'llm_with_context', 'ewma']);
             $table->enum('direction', ['rising', 'falling', 'flat']);
             $table->tinyInteger('confidence')->unsigned()->comment('0–100 confidence score');
             $table->text('reasoning')->nullable()->comment('LLM explanation or EWMA summary');

database/migrations/2026_04_04_184147_add_llm_with_context_to_price_predictions_source.php

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+<?php
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Migrations\Migration;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+return new class extends Migration
+{
+    public function up(): void
+    {
+        if (DB::getDriverName() !== 'sqlite') {
+            DB::statement("ALTER TABLE price_predictions MODIFY COLUMN source ENUM('llm', 'llm_with_context', 'ewma') NOT NULL");
+        }
+    }
+
+    public function down(): void
+    {
+        if (DB::getDriverName() !== 'sqlite') {
+            DB::statement("ALTER TABLE price_predictions MODIFY COLUMN source ENUM('llm', 'ewma') NOT NULL");
+        }
+    }
+};

tests/Pest.php

@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ use Tests\TestCase;
 */
 
 pest()->extend(TestCase::class)
- // ->use(RefreshDatabase::class)
+    ->use(RefreshDatabase::class)
     ->in('Feature', 'Unit');
 
 /*

tests/Unit/Services/OilPriceServiceTest.php

@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
 uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
 
 beforeEach(function (): void {
+    Http::preventStrayRequests();
     $this->service = new OilPriceService(new ApiLogger);
 });
 
@@ -39,7 +40,7 @@ it('filters out FRED missing value markers', function (): void {
         '*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::response([
             'observations' => [
                 ['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'],
-                ['date' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '.'],  // weekend/holiday
+                ['date' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '.'],
                 ['date' => '2026-04-03', 'value' => '74.20'],
             ],
         ]),
@@ -105,7 +106,7 @@ it('returns flat when price movement is within threshold', function (): void {
         ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(50);
 });
 
-it('returns null when fewer than 14 prices are available', function (): void {
+it('returns null when fewer than 14 prices are available for EWMA', function (): void {
     $prices = collect(range(1, 10))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
         'date' => now()->subDays(10 - $i)->toDateString(),
         'price_usd' => 75.0,
@@ -172,9 +173,113 @@ it('returns null when LLM returns malformed JSON', function (): void {
     expect($this->service->generateLlmPrediction($prices))->toBeNull();
 });
 
+// --- generateLlmPredictionWithContext ---
+
+it('generates LLM prediction with context and returns LlmWithContext source', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0 + $i * 0.5,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":72,"reasoning":"OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward."}']],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
+        ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising)
+        ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(72)
+        ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::LlmWithContext)
+        ->and($prediction->reasoning)->toBe('OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward.');
+
+    Http::assertSentCount(1);
+});
+
+it('sends web_search tool in the context prediction request', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
+        $tools = $request->data()['tools'] ?? [];
+
+        return collect($tools)->contains(fn ($t) => $t['type'] === 'web_search_20260209');
+    });
+});
+
+it('does not include EWMA indicators in the context prediction prompt', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
+        $content = $request->data()['messages'][0]['content'] ?? '';
+
+        return ! str_contains($content, 'EWMA') && ! str_contains($content, 'Pre-computed');
+    });
+});
+
+it('continues on pause_turn and returns final answer', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
+            ->push([
+                'content' => [['type' => 'server_tool_use', 'id' => 'sttool_1', 'name' => 'web_search', 'input' => ['query' => 'Brent crude news']]],
+                'stop_reason' => 'pause_turn',
+            ])
+            ->push([
+                'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"falling","confidence":60,"reasoning":"Demand fears weigh on prices."}']],
+                'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+            ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
+        ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling);
+
+    Http::assertSentCount(2);
+});
+
 // --- generatePrediction (orchestrator) ---
 
-it('uses LLM when API key is configured', function (): void {
+it('uses LLM with context when API key is configured', function (): void {
     config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
 
     BrentPrice::insert(
@@ -186,19 +291,42 @@ it('uses LLM when API key is configured', function (): void {
 
     Http::fake([
         'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
-            'content' => [
+            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":70,"reasoning":"Trend is up."}']],
-                ['text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":70,"reasoning":"Trend is up."}'],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
-            ],
         ]),
     ]);
 
     $prediction = $this->service->generatePrediction();
 
+    expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::LlmWithContext)
+        ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1);
+});
+
+it('falls back to plain LLM when context method fails', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    BrentPrice::insert(
+        collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => [
+            'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+            'price_usd' => 75.0 + ($i * 0.8),
+        ])->all()
+    );
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
+            ->push([], 500)
+            ->push([
+                'content' => [['text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":70,"reasoning":"Trend up."}']],
+            ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generatePrediction();
+
     expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Llm)
         ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1);
 });
 
-it('falls back to EWMA when LLM fails', function (): void {
+it('falls back to EWMA when both LLM methods fail', function (): void {
     config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
 
     BrentPrice::insert(
@@ -227,131 +355,3 @@ it('returns null when there is insufficient price data', function (): void {
     expect($this->service->generatePrediction())->toBeNull()
         ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(0);
 });
-
-// --- generateLlmPredictionWithContext ---
-
-it('generates llm prediction with context using web search and raw prices', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0 + $s->index * 0.5,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
-            'content' => [
-                ['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":72,"reasoning":"OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward."}'],
-            ],
-            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
-        ], 200),
-    ]);
-
-    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
-    $prediction = app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
-
-    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
-        ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising)
-        ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(72)
-        ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Llm)
-        ->and($prediction->reasoning)->toBe('OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward.');
-
-    Http::assertSentCount(1);
-});
-
-it('sends web_search tool in the context prediction request', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
-            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']],
-            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
-        ], 200),
-    ]);
-
-    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
-    app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
-
-    Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
-        $tools = $request->data()['tools'] ?? [];
-
-        return collect($tools)->contains(fn ($t) => $t['type'] === 'web_search_20260209');
-    });
-});
-
-it('does not include ewma indicators in the context prediction request', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
-            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']],
-            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
-        ], 200),
-    ]);
-
-    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
-    app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
-
-    Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
-        $content = $request->data()['messages'][0]['content'] ?? '';
-
-        return ! str_contains($content, 'EWMA') && ! str_contains($content, 'Pre-computed');
-    });
-});
-
-it('context prediction continues on pause_turn and returns final answer', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
-            ->push([
-                'content' => [['type' => 'server_tool_use', 'id' => 'sttool_1', 'name' => 'web_search', 'input' => ['query' => 'Brent crude news']]],
-                'stop_reason' => 'pause_turn',
-            ], 200)
-            ->push([
-                'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"falling","confidence":60,"reasoning":"Demand fears weigh on prices."}']],
-                'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
-            ], 200),
-    ]);
-
-    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
-    $prediction = app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
-
-    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
-        ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling);
-
-    Http::assertSentCount(2);
-});
-
-it('generatePrediction falls through to ewma when both llm methods fail', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([], 500),
-    ]);
-
-    $prediction = app(OilPriceService::class)->generatePrediction();
-
-    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
-        ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma);
-});