refactor: split oil price ingestion and prediction into separate services + commands

- BrentPriceFetcher owns ingestion (fetchFromEia / fetchFromFred, each throws on failure)
- BrentPricePredictor owns prediction and marks latest brent_prices row as generated
- oil:fetch command tries EIA, falls back to FRED, fails loudly if both fail
- oil:predict command prompts if latest price already has a prediction; --force bypasses
- add prediction_generated_at column to brent_prices
- delete OilPriceService (replaced by the two focused services)

app/Console/Commands/FetchOilPrices.php

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Console\Commands;
+
+use App\Services\BrentPriceFetcher;
+use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\BrentPriceFetchException;
+use Illuminate\Console\Attributes\Description;
+use Illuminate\Console\Attributes\Signature;
+use Illuminate\Console\Command;
+
+#[Signature('oil:fetch')]
+#[Description('Fetch latest Brent crude prices (EIA primary, FRED fallback)')]
+class FetchOilPrices extends Command
+{
+    public function handle(BrentPriceFetcher $fetcher): int
+    {
+        try {
+            $fetcher->fetchFromEia();
+            $this->info('Fetched Brent prices from EIA.');
+
+            return self::SUCCESS;
+        } catch (BrentPriceFetchException $e) {
+            $this->warn('EIA fetch failed: '.$e->getMessage().'. Trying FRED...');
+        }
+
+        try {
+            $fetcher->fetchFromFred();
+            $this->info('Fetched Brent prices from FRED.');
+
+            return self::SUCCESS;
+        } catch (BrentPriceFetchException $e) {
+            $this->error('Both EIA and FRED failed: '.$e->getMessage());
+
+            return self::FAILURE;
+        }
+    }
+}

app/Console/Commands/PredictOilPrices.php

@@ -2,26 +2,37 @@
 
 namespace App\Console\Commands;
 
-use App\Services\OilPriceService;
+use App\Services\BrentPricePredictor;
 use Illuminate\Console\Command;
 use Throwable;
 
 class PredictOilPrices extends Command
 {
-    protected $signature = 'oil:predict {--fetch : Fetch latest FRED prices before predicting}';
+    protected $signature = 'oil:predict {--force : Generate even if the latest price already has a prediction}';
 
     protected $description = 'Generate a Brent crude oil price direction prediction';
 
-    public function handle(OilPriceService $service): int
+    public function handle(BrentPricePredictor $predictor): int
     {
         try {
-            if ($this->option('fetch')) {
-                $this->info('Fetching latest Brent crude prices from FRED...');
-                $service->fetchBrentPrices();
+            $latest = $predictor->latestPrice();
+
+            if ($latest?->prediction_generated_at !== null && ! $this->option('force')) {
+                $message = sprintf(
+                    'Prediction already generated for %s at %s.',
+                    $latest->date->toDateString(),
+                    $latest->prediction_generated_at->toDateTimeString(),
+                );
+
+                if (! $this->confirm($message.' Run again anyway?', default: false)) {
+                    $this->info('Skipped.');
+
+                    return self::SUCCESS;
+                }
             }
 
             $this->info('Generating prediction...');
-            $prediction = $service->generatePrediction();
+            $prediction = $predictor->generatePrediction();
 
             if ($prediction === null) {
                 $this->error('Could not generate a prediction — not enough price data.');

app/Models/BrentPrice.php

@@ -6,9 +6,8 @@ use Database\Factories\BrentPriceFactory;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Fillable;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\HasFactory;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
-use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
 
-#[Fillable(['date', 'price_usd'])]
+#[Fillable(['date', 'price_usd', 'prediction_generated_at'])]
 class BrentPrice extends Model
 {
     /** @use HasFactory<BrentPriceFactory> */
@@ -27,6 +26,7 @@ class BrentPrice extends Model
         return [
             'date' => 'date',
             'price_usd' => 'decimal:2',
+            'prediction_generated_at' => 'datetime',
         ];
     }
 }

app/Services/BrentPriceFetcher.php

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services;
+
+use App\Models\BrentPrice;
+use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\BrentPriceFetchException;
+use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\EiaBrentPriceSource;
+use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\FredBrentPriceSource;
+
+final readonly class BrentPriceFetcher
+{
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly EiaBrentPriceSource $eia,
+        private readonly FredBrentPriceSource $fred,
+    ) {}
+
+    /**
+     * Fetch from EIA and persist. Throws on failure.
+     */
+    public function fetchFromEia(): void
+    {
+        $rows = $this->eia->fetch();
+
+        if ($rows === null) {
+            throw new BrentPriceFetchException('EIA fetch returned no data');
+        }
+
+        BrentPrice::upsert($rows, ['date'], ['price_usd']);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Fetch from FRED and persist. Throws on failure.
+     */
+    public function fetchFromFred(): void
+    {
+        $rows = $this->fred->fetch();
+
+        if ($rows === null) {
+            throw new BrentPriceFetchException('FRED fetch returned no data');
+        }
+
+        BrentPrice::upsert($rows, ['date'], ['price_usd']);
+    }
+}

app/Services/BrentPricePredictor.php

@@ -6,70 +6,42 @@ use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
 use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
 use App\Models\BrentPrice;
 use App\Models\PricePrediction;
-use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\EiaBrentPriceSource;
-use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\FredBrentPriceSource;
 use App\Services\LlmPrediction\OilPredictionProvider;
 use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
 
-class OilPriceService
+final class BrentPricePredictor
 {
-    /**
-     * Decay factor for EWMA. Higher = more weight on recent prices.
-     */
     private const float EWMA_ALPHA = 0.3;
 
-    /**
-     * Minimum % change in EWMA to be considered rising/falling.
-     */
     private const float EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT = 1.5;
 
-    /**
-     * EWMA confidence is capped lower than LLM — it's a simpler model.
-     */
     private const int EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 65;
 
-    /**
-     * Minimum price rows needed before EWMA is meaningful.
-     */
     private const int EWMA_MIN_ROWS = 14;
 
     public function __construct(
         private readonly OilPredictionProvider $provider,
-        private readonly EiaBrentPriceSource $eia,
-        private readonly FredBrentPriceSource $fred,
     ) {}
 
     /**
-     * Fetch the last 30 days of Brent crude prices.
-     * Tries each configured source in order; upserts the first successful result.
+     * Return the latest BrentPrice row, or null if none exists.
      */
-    public function fetchBrentPrices(): void
+    public function latestPrice(): ?BrentPrice
     {
-        foreach ([$this->eia, $this->fred] as $source) {
-            $rows = $source->fetch();
-
-            if ($rows !== null) {
-                BrentPrice::upsert($rows, ['date'], ['price_usd']);
-
-                return;
-            }
-        }
-
-        Log::error('OilPriceService: all Brent price sources failed');
+        return BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->first();
     }
 
     /**
-     * Generate predictions from all available sources and store each one.
-     * EWMA always runs. LLM provider runs and returns null if not configured.
-     * Returns the highest-confidence prediction (LLM preferred over EWMA).
+     * Generate EWMA + LLM predictions, store them, and flag the latest
+     * brent_prices row as having a prediction generated.
      */
     public function generatePrediction(): ?PricePrediction
     {
         $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
 
         if ($prices->count() < self::EWMA_MIN_ROWS) {
-            Log::warning('OilPriceService: not enough price data to generate prediction', [
+            Log::warning('BrentPricePredictor: not enough price data', [
                 'rows' => $prices->count(),
             ]);
 
@@ -88,13 +60,15 @@ class OilPriceService
             PricePrediction::create($llm->toArray());
         }
 
-        return $llm ?? $ewma;
+        $result = $llm ?? $ewma;
+
+        if ($result !== null) {
+            $prices->first()->forceFill(['prediction_generated_at' => now()])->save();
+        }
+
+        return $result;
     }
 
-    /**
-     * Option A — EWMA-based trend extrapolation. Used as fallback when LLM is unavailable.
-     * Compares the 3-day EWMA against the 7-day EWMA to detect direction.
-     */
     public function generateEwmaPrediction(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
     {
         $chronological = $prices->sortBy('date')->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all();
@@ -139,9 +113,7 @@ class OilPriceService
     }
 
     /**
-     * Compute Exponential Weighted Moving Average for a series of prices.
-     *
-     * @param  float[]  $prices  Chronological order (oldest first)
+     * @param  float[]  $prices  Chronological (oldest first).
      */
     private function computeEwma(array $prices): float
     {
@@ -154,10 +126,6 @@ class OilPriceService
         return round($ema, 4);
     }
 
-    /**
-     * Map a % change magnitude to a 0–EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE confidence score.
-     * 1.5% → ~30, 3% → ~50, 5%+ → 65.
-     */
     private function ewmaConfidence(float $changePct): int
     {
         $scaled = min($changePct / 5.0, 1.0) * self::EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE;

app/Services/BrentPriceSources/BrentPriceFetchException.php

@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\BrentPriceSources;
+
+use RuntimeException;
+
+final class BrentPriceFetchException extends RuntimeException {}