refactor: split oil price ingestion and prediction into separate services + commands
- BrentPriceFetcher owns ingestion (fetchFromEia / fetchFromFred, each throws on failure) - BrentPricePredictor owns prediction and marks latest brent_prices row as generated - oil:fetch command tries EIA, falls back to FRED, fails loudly if both fail - oil:predict command prompts if latest price already has a prediction; --force bypasses - add prediction_generated_at column to brent_prices - delete OilPriceService (replaced by the two focused services)
This commit is contained in:
Ovidiu U
120
tests/Unit/Services/BrentPriceFetcherTest.php
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120
tests/Unit/Services/BrentPriceFetcherTest.php
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@@ -0,0 +1,120 @@
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<?php
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use App\Models\BrentPrice;
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use App\Services\ApiLogger;
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use App\Services\BrentPriceFetcher;
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use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\BrentPriceFetchException;
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use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\EiaBrentPriceSource;
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use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\FredBrentPriceSource;
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use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
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use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
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uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
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beforeEach(function (): void {
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Http::preventStrayRequests();
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$apiLogger = new ApiLogger;
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$this->fetcher = new BrentPriceFetcher(
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new EiaBrentPriceSource($apiLogger),
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new FredBrentPriceSource($apiLogger),
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);
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});
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it('fetches and stores brent prices from EIA', function (): void {
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Http::fake([
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'*eia.gov/*' => Http::response([
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'response' => [
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'data' => [
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['period' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '73.80'],
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['period' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'],
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],
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],
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]),
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]);
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$this->fetcher->fetchFromEia();
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expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(2)
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->and(BrentPrice::find('2026-04-02')->price_usd)->toBe('73.80');
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});
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it('throws when EIA returns a 500', function (): void {
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Http::fake(['*eia.gov/*' => Http::response([], 500)]);
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$this->fetcher->fetchFromEia();
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})->throws(BrentPriceFetchException::class);
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it('throws when EIA returns empty data', function (): void {
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Http::fake(['*eia.gov/*' => Http::response(['response' => ['data' => []]])]);
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$this->fetcher->fetchFromEia();
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})->throws(BrentPriceFetchException::class);
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it('filters out EIA missing value markers', function (): void {
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Http::fake([
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'*eia.gov/*' => Http::response([
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'response' => [
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'data' => [
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['period' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'],
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['period' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '.'],
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['period' => '2026-04-03', 'value' => '74.20'],
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],
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],
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]),
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]);
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$this->fetcher->fetchFromEia();
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expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(2)
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->and(BrentPrice::find('2026-04-02'))->toBeNull();
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});
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it('fetches and stores brent prices from FRED', function (): void {
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Http::fake([
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'*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::response([
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'observations' => [
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['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'],
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['date' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '73.80'],
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],
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]),
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]);
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$this->fetcher->fetchFromFred();
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expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(2);
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});
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it('throws when FRED fails', function (): void {
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Http::fake(['*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::response([], 500)]);
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$this->fetcher->fetchFromFred();
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})->throws(BrentPriceFetchException::class);
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it('filters out FRED missing value markers', function (): void {
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Http::fake([
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'*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::response([
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'observations' => [
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['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'],
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['date' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '.'],
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],
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]),
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]);
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$this->fetcher->fetchFromFred();
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expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(1);
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});
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it('upserts existing rows on refetch', function (): void {
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Http::fake([
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'*eia.gov/*' => Http::sequence()
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->push(['response' => ['data' => [['period' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '74.00']]]])
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->push(['response' => ['data' => [['period' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.50']]]]),
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]);
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$this->fetcher->fetchFromEia();
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$this->fetcher->fetchFromEia();
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expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(1)
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->and(BrentPrice::find('2026-04-01')->price_usd)->toBe('75.50');
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});
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144
tests/Unit/Services/BrentPricePredictorTest.php
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144
tests/Unit/Services/BrentPricePredictorTest.php
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@@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
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<?php
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use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
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use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
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use App\Models\BrentPrice;
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use App\Models\PricePrediction;
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use App\Services\BrentPricePredictor;
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use App\Services\LlmPrediction\OilPredictionProvider;
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use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
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uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
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beforeEach(function (): void {
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$this->provider = Mockery::mock(OilPredictionProvider::class);
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$this->predictor = new BrentPricePredictor($this->provider);
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});
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it('detects a rising trend when 3-day EWMA exceeds 7-day EWMA by threshold', function (): void {
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$prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
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'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
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'price_usd' => 70.0 + ($i * 2.0),
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]));
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$prediction = $this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
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expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising)
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->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma)
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->and($prediction->confidence)->toBeGreaterThan(0)
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->and($prediction->confidence)->toBeLessThanOrEqual(65);
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});
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it('detects a falling trend when 3-day EWMA falls below 7-day EWMA by threshold', function (): void {
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$prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
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'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
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'price_usd' => 85.0 - ($i * 2.0),
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]));
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$prediction = $this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
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expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling);
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});
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it('returns flat when price movement is within threshold', function (): void {
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$prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
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'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
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'price_usd' => 75.0 + (($i % 2 === 0) ? 0.1 : -0.1),
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]));
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$prediction = $this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
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expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Flat)
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->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(50);
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});
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it('returns null when fewer than 14 prices are available for EWMA', function (): void {
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$prices = collect(range(1, 10))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
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'date' => now()->subDays(10 - $i)->toDateString(),
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'price_usd' => 75.0,
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]));
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expect($this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices))->toBeNull();
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});
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it('stores both EWMA and LLM predictions when provider succeeds', function (): void {
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seedPrices(20);
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$this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn(new PricePrediction([
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'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
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'source' => PredictionSource::LlmWithContext,
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'direction' => TrendDirection::Rising,
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'confidence' => 70,
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'reasoning' => 'Trend is up.',
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'generated_at' => now(),
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]));
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$prediction = $this->predictor->generatePrediction();
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expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::LlmWithContext)
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->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(2);
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});
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it('falls back to EWMA when provider returns null', function (): void {
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seedPrices(20, slope: 0.8);
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$this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn(null);
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$prediction = $this->predictor->generatePrediction();
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expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma)
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->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1);
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});
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it('returns null when there is insufficient price data', function (): void {
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BrentPrice::insert([
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['date' => now()->subDays(2)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0],
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['date' => now()->subDay()->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 76.0],
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]);
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$this->provider->shouldNotReceive('predict');
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expect($this->predictor->generatePrediction())->toBeNull()
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->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(0);
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});
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it('flags latest brent price as prediction generated on success', function (): void {
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seedPrices(20);
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$this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn(null);
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$this->predictor->generatePrediction();
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$latest = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->first();
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expect($latest->prediction_generated_at)->not->toBeNull();
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});
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it('does not flag when prediction cannot be generated', function (): void {
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BrentPrice::insert([
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['date' => now()->subDay()->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0],
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]);
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$this->provider->shouldNotReceive('predict');
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$this->predictor->generatePrediction();
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expect(BrentPrice::first()->prediction_generated_at)->toBeNull();
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});
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it('returns the latest price row', function (): void {
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seedPrices(3);
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expect($this->predictor->latestPrice())->not->toBeNull()
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->and($this->predictor->latestPrice()->date->toDateString())->toBe(now()->toDateString());
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});
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function seedPrices(int $count, float $slope = 1.0): void
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{
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BrentPrice::insert(
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collect(range(1, $count))->map(fn (int $i) => [
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'date' => now()->subDays($count - $i)->toDateString(),
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'price_usd' => 75.0 + ($i * $slope),
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])->all()
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);
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}
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@@ -1,250 +0,0 @@
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<?php
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use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
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use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
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use App\Models\BrentPrice;
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use App\Models\PricePrediction;
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use App\Services\ApiLogger;
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use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\EiaBrentPriceSource;
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use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\FredBrentPriceSource;
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use App\Services\LlmPrediction\OilPredictionProvider;
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use App\Services\OilPriceService;
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use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
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use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
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uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
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beforeEach(function (): void {
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Http::preventStrayRequests();
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$this->provider = Mockery::mock(OilPredictionProvider::class);
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$apiLogger = new ApiLogger;
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$this->service = new OilPriceService(
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$this->provider,
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new EiaBrentPriceSource($apiLogger),
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new FredBrentPriceSource($apiLogger),
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);
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});
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// --- fetchBrentPrices ---
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it('fetches and stores brent prices from EIA when EIA succeeds', function (): void {
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Http::fake([
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'*eia.gov/*' => Http::response([
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'response' => [
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'data' => [
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['period' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '73.80'],
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['period' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'],
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['period' => '2026-03-31', 'value' => '74.50'],
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],
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],
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]),
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'*/fred/*' => Http::response([], 500),
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]);
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$this->service->fetchBrentPrices();
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expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(3)
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->and(BrentPrice::find('2026-04-02')->price_usd)->toBe('73.80');
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Http::assertNotSent(fn ($request) => str_contains($request->url(), 'stlouisfed'));
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});
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it('falls back to FRED when EIA returns a 500', function (): void {
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Http::fake([
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'*eia.gov/*' => Http::response([], 500),
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'*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::response([
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'observations' => [
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['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'],
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['date' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '73.80'],
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],
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]),
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]);
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$this->service->fetchBrentPrices();
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expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(2);
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});
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it('falls back to FRED when EIA returns empty data', function (): void {
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Http::fake([
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'*eia.gov/*' => Http::response(['response' => ['data' => []]]),
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'*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::response([
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'observations' => [
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['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'],
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],
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]),
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]);
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$this->service->fetchBrentPrices();
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expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(1);
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});
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it('stores no rows and logs error when both EIA and FRED fail', function (): void {
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Http::fake([
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'*eia.gov/*' => Http::response([], 500),
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'*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::response([], 500),
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]);
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$this->service->fetchBrentPrices();
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expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(0);
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});
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it('filters out EIA missing value markers', function (): void {
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Http::fake([
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'*eia.gov/*' => Http::response([
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'response' => [
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'data' => [
|
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['period' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'],
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['period' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '.'],
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['period' => '2026-04-03', 'value' => '74.20'],
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],
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],
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]),
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]);
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$this->service->fetchBrentPrices();
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expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(2)
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->and(BrentPrice::find('2026-04-02'))->toBeNull();
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});
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it('upserts existing brent price rows on refetch via EIA', function (): void {
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Http::fake([
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'*eia.gov/*' => Http::sequence()
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->push(['response' => ['data' => [['period' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '74.00']]]])
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->push(['response' => ['data' => [['period' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.50']]]]),
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]);
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$this->service->fetchBrentPrices();
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$this->service->fetchBrentPrices();
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expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(1)
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->and(BrentPrice::find('2026-04-01')->price_usd)->toBe('75.50');
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});
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// --- generateEwmaPrediction ---
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it('detects a rising trend when 3-day EWMA exceeds 7-day EWMA by threshold', function (): void {
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$prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
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'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
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'price_usd' => 70.0 + ($i * 2.0),
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]));
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$prediction = $this->service->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
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expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising)
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->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma)
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->and($prediction->confidence)->toBeGreaterThan(0)
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->and($prediction->confidence)->toBeLessThanOrEqual(65);
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});
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it('detects a falling trend when 3-day EWMA falls below 7-day EWMA by threshold', function (): void {
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$prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
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'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
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'price_usd' => 85.0 - ($i * 2.0),
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]));
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$prediction = $this->service->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
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expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling)
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->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma);
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});
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it('returns flat when price movement is within threshold', function (): void {
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$prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
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'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
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'price_usd' => 75.0 + (($i % 2 === 0) ? 0.1 : -0.1),
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]));
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$prediction = $this->service->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
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expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Flat)
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->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(50);
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});
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it('returns null when fewer than 14 prices are available for EWMA', function (): void {
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$prices = collect(range(1, 10))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
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'date' => now()->subDays(10 - $i)->toDateString(),
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'price_usd' => 75.0,
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]));
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expect($this->service->generateEwmaPrediction($prices))->toBeNull();
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});
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// --- generatePrediction (orchestrator) ---
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it('stores both EWMA and LLM predictions when provider succeeds', function (): void {
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BrentPrice::insert(
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collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => [
|
||||
'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
|
||||
'price_usd' => 75.0 + $i,
|
||||
])->all()
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
||||
$this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn(new PricePrediction([
|
||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
||||
'source' => PredictionSource::LlmWithContext,
|
||||
'direction' => TrendDirection::Rising,
|
||||
'confidence' => 70,
|
||||
'reasoning' => 'Trend is up.',
|
||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
||||
]));
|
||||
|
||||
$prediction = $this->service->generatePrediction();
|
||||
|
||||
expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::LlmWithContext)
|
||||
->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(2);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('returns LLM prediction when provider succeeds', function (): void {
|
||||
BrentPrice::insert(
|
||||
collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => [
|
||||
'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
|
||||
'price_usd' => 75.0 + $i,
|
||||
])->all()
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
||||
$llmPrediction = new PricePrediction([
|
||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
||||
'source' => PredictionSource::Llm,
|
||||
'direction' => TrendDirection::Rising,
|
||||
'confidence' => 65,
|
||||
'reasoning' => 'Rising trend.',
|
||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
||||
]);
|
||||
|
||||
$this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn($llmPrediction);
|
||||
|
||||
$prediction = $this->service->generatePrediction();
|
||||
|
||||
expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Llm);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('falls back to EWMA when provider returns null', function (): void {
|
||||
BrentPrice::insert(
|
||||
collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => [
|
||||
'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
|
||||
'price_usd' => 75.0 + ($i * 0.8),
|
||||
])->all()
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
||||
$this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn(null);
|
||||
|
||||
$prediction = $this->service->generatePrediction();
|
||||
|
||||
expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma)
|
||||
->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('returns null when there is insufficient price data', function (): void {
|
||||
BrentPrice::insert([
|
||||
['date' => now()->subDays(2)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0],
|
||||
['date' => now()->subDay()->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 76.0],
|
||||
]);
|
||||
|
||||
$this->provider->shouldNotReceive('predict');
|
||||
|
||||
expect($this->service->generatePrediction())->toBeNull()
|
||||
->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(0);
|
||||
});
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user