diff --git a/app/Http/Controllers/Api/PredictionController.php b/app/Http/Controllers/Api/PredictionController.php
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b1958b9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/Http/Controllers/Api/PredictionController.php
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Http\Controllers\Api;
+
+use App\Http\Controllers\Controller;
+use App\Http\Requests\Api\PredictionRequest;
+use App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService;
+use Illuminate\Http\JsonResponse;
+
+class PredictionController extends Controller
+{
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly NationalFuelPredictionService $predictionService,
+    ) {}
+
+    public function index(PredictionRequest $request): JsonResponse
+    {
+        $fuelType = $request->fuelType();
+        $lat = $request->filled('lat') ? (float) $request->input('lat') : null;
+        $lng = $request->filled('lng') ? (float) $request->input('lng') : null;
+
+        $result = $this->predictionService->predict($fuelType, $lat, $lng);
+
+        return response()->json($result);
+    }
+}
diff --git a/app/Http/Requests/Api/PredictionRequest.php b/app/Http/Requests/Api/PredictionRequest.php
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..88ce78c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/Http/Requests/Api/PredictionRequest.php
@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Http\Requests\Api;
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Http\FormRequest;
+use Illuminate\Validation\ValidationException;
+
+class PredictionRequest extends FormRequest
+{
+    public function authorize(): bool
+    {
+        return true;
+    }
+
+    public function rules(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'fuel_type' => ['required', 'string'],
+            'lat' => ['nullable', 'numeric', 'between:-90,90'],
+            'lng' => ['nullable', 'numeric', 'between:-180,180'],
+        ];
+    }
+
+    public function fuelType(): FuelType
+    {
+        try {
+            return FuelType::fromAlias($this->string('fuel_type')->toString());
+        } catch (\ValueError) {
+            throw ValidationException::withMessages(['fuel_type' => 'Unknown fuel type. Use: diesel, petrol, e10, e5, hvo, b10.']);
+        }
+    }
+}
diff --git a/app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php b/app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php
index 6587187..a4c7324 100644
--- a/app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php
+++ b/app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php
@@ -344,7 +344,7 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
             ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
             ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
             ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(14))
-            ->whereRaw('(6371 * acos(LEAST(1.0, cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?)) + sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))))) <= 50', [$lat, $lng, $lat])
+            ->whereRaw('(6371 * acos(CASE WHEN (cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?)) + sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))) > 1.0 THEN 1.0 ELSE (cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?)) + sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))) END)) <= 50', [$lat, $lng, $lat, $lat, $lng, $lat])
             ->selectRaw('DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
             ->groupBy('day')
             ->orderBy('day')
diff --git a/tests/Feature/Api/PredictionControllerTest.php b/tests/Feature/Api/PredictionControllerTest.php
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..95c879d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/Feature/Api/PredictionControllerTest.php
@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+<?php
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+use App\Models\Station;
+use App\Models\StationPriceCurrent;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
+
+uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
+
+it('returns a prediction response for diesel', function () {
+    $this->getJson('/api/prediction?fuel_type=diesel')
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertJsonStructure([
+            'fuel_type', 'current_avg', 'predicted_direction', 'predicted_change_pence',
+            'confidence_score', 'confidence_label', 'action', 'reasoning',
+            'prediction_horizon_days', 'region_key', 'methodology',
+            'signals' => [
+                'trend' => ['score', 'confidence', 'direction', 'detail', 'data_points', 'enabled'],
+                'day_of_week' => ['score', 'confidence', 'direction', 'detail', 'data_points', 'enabled'],
+                'brand_behaviour' => ['score', 'confidence', 'direction', 'detail', 'data_points', 'enabled'],
+                'national_momentum' => ['score', 'confidence', 'direction', 'detail', 'data_points', 'enabled'],
+                'regional_momentum' => ['score', 'confidence', 'direction', 'detail', 'data_points', 'enabled'],
+                'price_stickiness' => ['score', 'confidence', 'direction', 'detail', 'data_points', 'enabled'],
+            ],
+        ])
+        ->assertJsonPath('fuel_type', 'b7_standard')
+        ->assertJsonPath('region_key', 'national');
+});
+
+it('includes current average from live prices', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create();
+    StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create([
+        'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+        'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard,
+        'price_pence' => 14750,
+    ]);
+
+    $response = $this->getJson('/api/prediction?fuel_type=diesel')->assertOk();
+
+    expect($response->json('current_avg'))->toBe(147.5);
+});
+
+it('accepts optional lat and lng for regional context', function () {
+    $this->getJson('/api/prediction?fuel_type=diesel&lat=52.5&lng=-0.2')
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertJsonPath('region_key', 'national'); // still national, regional_momentum signal updated internally
+});
+
+it('returns 422 when fuel_type is missing', function () {
+    $this->getJson('/api/prediction')
+        ->assertUnprocessable()
+        ->assertJsonValidationErrors(['fuel_type']);
+});
+
+it('returns 422 for unknown fuel_type alias', function () {
+    $this->getJson('/api/prediction?fuel_type=rocket_fuel')
+        ->assertUnprocessable()
+        ->assertJsonValidationErrors(['fuel_type']);
+});