feat: add Filament admin panel with migrations and design spec
- Add AdminPanelProvider mounting panel at `/admin` with `is_admin` auth guard - Add `is_admin` boolean column to users table - Add brent_prices and price_predictions tables with appropriate indexes - Add comprehensive admin design spec covering resources, dashboard, navigation, and build order - Configure default panel with amber primary color and standard middleware stack - Add compiled Filament assets (actions.js, app.css)
This commit is contained in:
Ovidiu U
280
app/Services/OilPriceService.php
Normal file
280
app/Services/OilPriceService.php
Normal file
@@ -0,0 +1,280 @@
|
||||
<?php
|
||||
|
||||
namespace App\Services;
|
||||
|
||||
use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
|
||||
use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
|
||||
use App\Models\BrentPrice;
|
||||
use App\Models\PricePrediction;
|
||||
use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
|
||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
|
||||
use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
|
||||
use Throwable;
|
||||
|
||||
class OilPriceService
|
||||
{
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Decay factor for EWMA. Higher = more weight on recent prices.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
private const float EWMA_ALPHA = 0.3;
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Minimum % change in EWMA to be considered rising/falling.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
private const float EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT = 1.5;
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* EWMA confidence is capped lower than LLM — it's a simpler model.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
private const int EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 65;
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* LLM confidence is capped — no model should be certain about oil prices.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
private const int LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 85;
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Minimum price rows needed before EWMA is meaningful.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
private const int EWMA_MIN_ROWS = 14;
|
||||
|
||||
public function __construct(
|
||||
private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
|
||||
) {}
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Fetch the last 30 days of Brent crude prices from FRED and store them.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
public function fetchBrentPrices(): void
|
||||
{
|
||||
$url = 'https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations';
|
||||
|
||||
try {
|
||||
$response = $this->apiLogger->send('fred', 'GET', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(10)
|
||||
->get($url, [
|
||||
'series_id' => 'DCOILBRENTEU',
|
||||
'api_key' => config('services.fred.api_key'),
|
||||
'sort_order' => 'desc',
|
||||
'limit' => 30,
|
||||
'file_type' => 'json',
|
||||
]));
|
||||
|
||||
if (! $response->successful()) {
|
||||
Log::error('OilPriceService: FRED request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
|
||||
|
||||
return;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
$rows = collect($response->json('observations') ?? [])
|
||||
->filter(fn (array $obs) => $obs['value'] !== '.') // FRED uses '.' for missing data
|
||||
->map(fn (array $obs) => [
|
||||
'date' => $obs['date'],
|
||||
'price_usd' => (float) $obs['value'],
|
||||
])
|
||||
->all();
|
||||
|
||||
if (empty($rows)) {
|
||||
Log::warning('OilPriceService: no valid FRED observations returned');
|
||||
|
||||
return;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
BrentPrice::upsert($rows, ['date'], ['price_usd']);
|
||||
} catch (Throwable $e) {
|
||||
Log::error('OilPriceService: fetchBrentPrices failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Generate a prediction using LLM first, falling back to EWMA.
|
||||
* Stores the result in price_predictions and returns it.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
public function generatePrediction(): ?PricePrediction
|
||||
{
|
||||
$prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
|
||||
|
||||
if ($prices->count() < self::EWMA_MIN_ROWS) {
|
||||
Log::warning('OilPriceService: not enough price data to generate prediction', [
|
||||
'rows' => $prices->count(),
|
||||
]);
|
||||
|
||||
return null;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
$prediction = null;
|
||||
|
||||
if (config('services.anthropic.api_key')) {
|
||||
$prediction = $this->generateLlmPrediction($prices);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
$prediction ??= $this->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
|
||||
|
||||
if ($prediction !== null) {
|
||||
PricePrediction::create($prediction->toArray());
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
return $prediction;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Option B — LLM prediction via Anthropic API.
|
||||
* Sends recent prices + pre-computed EWMA context and asks for direction + confidence.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
public function generateLlmPrediction(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
|
||||
{
|
||||
$chronological = $prices->sortBy('date');
|
||||
$ewma3 = $this->computeEwma($chronological->take(-3)->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
|
||||
$ewma7 = $this->computeEwma($chronological->take(-7)->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
|
||||
$ewma14 = $this->computeEwma($chronological->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
|
||||
|
||||
$priceList = $chronological
|
||||
->map(fn (BrentPrice $p) => "{$p->date->toDateString()}: \${$p->price_usd}")
|
||||
->implode("\n");
|
||||
|
||||
$prompt = <<<PROMPT
|
||||
You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
|
||||
Your goal is to predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
|
||||
|
||||
Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
|
||||
{$priceList}
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-computed indicators:
|
||||
- 3-day EWMA: \${$ewma3}
|
||||
- 7-day EWMA: \${$ewma7}
|
||||
- 14-day EWMA: \${$ewma14}
|
||||
|
||||
Respond with JSON only, no other text:
|
||||
{"direction": "rising|falling|flat", "confidence": 0-85, "reasoning": "one sentence"}
|
||||
PROMPT;
|
||||
|
||||
$url = 'https://api.anthropic.com/v1/messages';
|
||||
|
||||
try {
|
||||
$response = $this->apiLogger->send('anthropic', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
|
||||
->withHeaders([
|
||||
'x-api-key' => config('services.anthropic.api_key'),
|
||||
'anthropic-version' => '2023-06-01',
|
||||
])
|
||||
->post($url, [
|
||||
'model' => config('services.anthropic.model', 'claude-haiku-4-5-20251001'),
|
||||
'max_tokens' => 256,
|
||||
'messages' => [
|
||||
['role' => 'user', 'content' => $prompt],
|
||||
],
|
||||
]));
|
||||
|
||||
if (! $response->successful()) {
|
||||
Log::error('OilPriceService: Anthropic request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
|
||||
|
||||
return null;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
$text = $response->json('content.0.text') ?? '';
|
||||
$text = preg_replace('/^```(?:json)?\s*/m', '', trim($text));
|
||||
$text = preg_replace('/```\s*$/m', '', $text);
|
||||
$data = json_decode(trim($text), true);
|
||||
|
||||
if (! isset($data['direction'], $data['confidence'], $data['reasoning'])) {
|
||||
Log::error('OilPriceService: unexpected LLM response format', ['text' => $text]);
|
||||
|
||||
return null;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
$direction = TrendDirection::tryFrom($data['direction']);
|
||||
$confidence = min((int) $data['confidence'], self::LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE);
|
||||
|
||||
if ($direction === null) {
|
||||
Log::error('OilPriceService: invalid direction in LLM response', ['direction' => $data['direction']]);
|
||||
|
||||
return null;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
return new PricePrediction([
|
||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
||||
'source' => PredictionSource::Llm,
|
||||
'direction' => $direction,
|
||||
'confidence' => $confidence,
|
||||
'reasoning' => $data['reasoning'],
|
||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
||||
]);
|
||||
} catch (Throwable $e) {
|
||||
Log::error('OilPriceService: generateLlmPrediction failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
|
||||
|
||||
return null;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Option A — EWMA-based trend extrapolation. Used as fallback when LLM is unavailable.
|
||||
* Compares the 3-day EWMA against the 7-day EWMA to detect direction.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
public function generateEwmaPrediction(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
|
||||
{
|
||||
$chronological = $prices->sortBy('date')->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all();
|
||||
|
||||
if (count($chronological) < self::EWMA_MIN_ROWS) {
|
||||
return null;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
$ewma3 = $this->computeEwma(array_slice($chronological, -3));
|
||||
$ewma7 = $this->computeEwma(array_slice($chronological, -7));
|
||||
|
||||
$changePct = (($ewma3 - $ewma7) / $ewma7) * 100;
|
||||
|
||||
[$direction, $confidence] = match (true) {
|
||||
$changePct >= self::EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT => [
|
||||
TrendDirection::Rising,
|
||||
$this->ewmaConfidence($changePct),
|
||||
],
|
||||
$changePct <= -self::EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT => [
|
||||
TrendDirection::Falling,
|
||||
$this->ewmaConfidence(abs($changePct)),
|
||||
],
|
||||
default => [TrendDirection::Flat, 50],
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
$reasoning = sprintf(
|
||||
'3-day EWMA ($%.2f) vs 7-day EWMA ($%.2f): %.2f%% %s.',
|
||||
$ewma3,
|
||||
$ewma7,
|
||||
abs($changePct),
|
||||
$direction === TrendDirection::Flat ? 'difference (flat)' : $direction->value,
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
||||
return new PricePrediction([
|
||||
'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
|
||||
'source' => PredictionSource::Ewma,
|
||||
'direction' => $direction,
|
||||
'confidence' => $confidence,
|
||||
'reasoning' => $reasoning,
|
||||
'generated_at' => now(),
|
||||
]);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Compute Exponential Weighted Moving Average for a series of prices.
|
||||
*
|
||||
* @param float[] $prices Chronological order (oldest first)
|
||||
*/
|
||||
private function computeEwma(array $prices): float
|
||||
{
|
||||
$ema = $prices[0];
|
||||
|
||||
foreach (array_slice($prices, 1) as $price) {
|
||||
$ema = self::EWMA_ALPHA * $price + (1 - self::EWMA_ALPHA) * $ema;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
return round($ema, 4);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Map a % change magnitude to a 0–EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE confidence score.
|
||||
* 1.5% → ~30, 3% → ~50, 5%+ → 65.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
private function ewmaConfidence(float $changePct): int
|
||||
{
|
||||
$scaled = min($changePct / 5.0, 1.0) * self::EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE;
|
||||
|
||||
return (int) round(max(30, $scaled));
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user