feat: add Filament admin panel with migrations and design spec

- Add AdminPanelProvider mounting panel at `/admin` with `is_admin` auth guard
- Add `is_admin` boolean column to users table
- Add brent_prices and price_predictions tables with appropriate indexes
- Add comprehensive admin design spec covering resources, dashboard, navigation, and build order
- Configure default panel with amber primary color and standard middleware stack
- Add compiled Filament assets (actions.js, app.css)

.claude/rules/api-data.md

@@ -392,22 +392,55 @@ FUEL_FINDER_CLIENT_SECRET=
 FUEL_FINDER_BASE_URL=https://api.fuel-finder.service.gov.uk
 ```
 
-## Postcodes.io — postcode → lat/lng
+## Postcodes.io — location resolution
 
-- URL: `https://api.postcodes.io/postcodes/{postcode}`
 - Free, no API key required
-- Called once on user registration / when postcode changes
+- Handled by `PostcodeService::resolve(string $query): ?LocationResult`
-- Store resolved `lat` + `lng` on `users` table
+- Returns `LocationResult` DTO with `query`, `displayName`, `lat`, `lng`
-- Cache postcode lookups for 30 days (postcodes rarely change coordinates)
+- Results cached for 30 days — cache key `postcode:{normalised_input}`
+- Failed lookups are NOT cached — retried on next request
+- Input is auto-detected:
 
-## FRED API (St. Louis Fed) — Brent crude direction
+| Input type | Example | Endpoint |
+|---|---|---|
+| Full postcode | `SW1A 1AA` | `GET /postcodes/{postcode}` |
+| Outcode (district) | `PE7` | `GET /outcodes/{outcode}` |
+| Place / city name | `Manchester` | `GET /places?q={query}&limit=1` |
 
-- Series: `DCOILBRENTEU` (daily Brent spot price)
+**Anonymous search flow:** user types a postcode/city → `PostcodeService::resolve()` → lat/lng stored in a JSON cookie (30 days) alongside the query string. On return visits, cookie lat/lng is used directly — postcodes.io is only called when the search term changes.
-- URL: `https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations?series_id=DCOILBRENTEU&api_key={key}&sort_order=desc&limit=10&file_type=json`
+
-- Free API key required — stored as `FRED_API_KEY` in .env
+**Registered users:** postcode resolved once on registration, lat/lng stored on `users` table — not re-resolved unless postcode changes.
-- Fetched once daily via scheduler at 7am
+
-- Stored in `brent_prices` table: `(date DATE, price_usd DECIMAL(8,2))`
+## FRED API (St. Louis Fed) — Brent crude prices
-- Only the 5-day trend direction is used by the scoring engine
+
+- Series: `DCOILBRENTEU` (daily Brent spot price, USD/barrel)
+- Endpoint: `GET https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations`
+- Params: `series_id=DCOILBRENTEU`, `sort_order=desc`, `limit=30`, `file_type=json`
+- Free API key required — stored as `FRED_API_KEY` in `.env`
+- Handled by `OilPriceService::fetchBrentPrices()`
+- Fetched daily at 7am via `oil:predict --fetch` scheduler command
+- FRED uses `"."` as a placeholder for non-trading days (weekends/holidays) — filtered out before insert
+- Stored in `brent_prices` table, upserted on `date` primary key
+
+## Anthropic API — oil price direction prediction
+
+- Endpoint: `POST https://api.anthropic.com/v1/messages`
+- Model: `claude-haiku-4-5-20251001` (configurable via `ANTHROPIC_MODEL` in `.env`)
+- Key stored as `ANTHROPIC_API_KEY` in `.env`
+- Handled by `OilPriceService::generateLlmPrediction()`
+- Called once daily after FRED fetch — sends last 30 days of Brent prices + pre-computed EWMA context
+- Response must be JSON: `{"direction": "rising|falling|flat", "confidence": 0-85, "reasoning": "..."}`
+- Model sometimes wraps JSON in markdown code fences — these are stripped before `json_decode`
+- Confidence is capped at 85 regardless of what the model returns
+- On any failure (API error, malformed JSON, invalid direction) → falls back to EWMA silently
+- Result stored in `price_predictions` table with `source = 'llm'`
+
+**EWMA fallback (`OilPriceService::generateEwmaPrediction()`):**
+- Compares 3-day EWMA vs 7-day EWMA on chronological Brent price data
+- Threshold: ±1.5% change → rising/falling; below → flat
+- Confidence capped at 65 (simpler model)
+- Used when: no `ANTHROPIC_API_KEY` set, or LLM call fails
+- Result stored in `price_predictions` table with `source = 'ewma'`
 
 ## OneSignal — push notifications
 

.claude/rules/architecture.md

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ This keeps the app API-extractable later without a rewrite.
 
 ```
 app/
-├── Console/Commands/       # Scheduler commands (PollFuelPrices, RunScoringEngine)
+├── Console/Commands/       # Scheduler commands (PollFuelPrices, PredictOilPrices, RunScoringEngine)
 ├── Http/Controllers/       # Minimal — auth + Stripe webhook only
 ├── Livewire/               # Classic two-file Livewire components
 ├── Models/                 # Eloquent models
@@ -20,7 +20,11 @@ app/
 │   ├── AlertScoringService.php     # Fill-up timing recommendation engine
 │   ├── StationTaggingService.php   # Supermarket brand detection
 │   ├── NotificationDispatchService.php  # Tier-aware notification routing
-│   └── SubscriptionService.php    # Cashier/tier helpers
+│   ├── SubscriptionService.php    # Cashier/tier helpers
+│   ├── PostcodeService.php         # Resolves postcodes/outcodes/place names → lat/lng
+│   ├── OilPriceService.php         # FRED fetch + EWMA/LLM Brent crude prediction
+│   ├── LocationResult.php          # DTO returned by PostcodeService
+│   └── ApiLogger.php               # Wraps all outbound HTTP calls, logs to api_logs
 └── Jobs/                   # Queued jobs (dispatch notifications per user)
 
 resources/views/

.claude/rules/database.md

@@ -91,6 +91,31 @@ INDEX (user_id, expires_at)
 ```
 OTP codes expire after 10 minutes. Mark `used_at` on success — never delete rows.
 
+### brent_prices (daily Brent crude from FRED)
+```
+date            DATE PRIMARY KEY   — trading day (no weekends/holidays)
+price_usd       DECIMAL(8,2)       — spot price USD per barrel
+```
+Populated daily by `OilPriceService::fetchBrentPrices()` via FRED API.
+FRED returns `"."` for non-trading days — these are filtered out before insert.
+Upserted on refetch so duplicate dates never occur.
+
+### price_predictions (oil price direction forecast)
+```
+id              BIGINT UNSIGNED AUTO_INCREMENT
+predicted_for   DATE               — the date this prediction covers
+source          ENUM('llm','ewma') — which method generated it
+direction       ENUM('rising','falling','flat')
+confidence      TINYINT            — 0–100 (LLM max 85, EWMA max 65)
+reasoning       TEXT NULLABLE      — plain-English explanation
+generated_at    DATETIME
+
+INDEX (predicted_for, source)
+```
+Generated daily by `OilPriceService::generatePrediction()`.
+LLM (Anthropic) is tried first; EWMA is used as fallback if LLM fails or key not set.
+Signal 4 in AlertScoringService reads from this table — never from brent_prices directly.
+
 ## Supermarket brands (StationTaggingService)
 
 Match station `name` (case-insensitive) against:

.claude/rules/scoring.md

@@ -32,8 +32,11 @@ Never guess — stay silent (no_signal) when signals conflict or data is insuffi
 - Weight: 15 points max
 
 ### Signal 4 — Brent crude direction (LOW WEIGHT)
-- Fetched daily from FRED API, stored in a simple `brent_prices` table
+- Read from `price_predictions` table — never query `brent_prices` directly in scoring
-- 5-day trend: rising ≥ 3% → mild fill_up pressure; falling ≥ 3% → mild wait
+- `OilPriceService::generatePrediction()` runs daily at 7am and writes the prediction
+- LLM (`source = 'llm'`) is preferred; EWMA (`source = 'ewma'`) is the fallback
+- Direction `rising` → mild fill_up pressure; `falling` → mild wait; `flat` → no signal
+- Points awarded proportionally to confidence: `(confidence / 100) * 10`
 - Weight: 10 points max
 
 ## Confidence thresholds

app/Console/Commands/PredictOilPrices.php

@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Console\Commands;
+
+use App\Services\OilPriceService;
+use Illuminate\Console\Command;
+use Throwable;
+
+class PredictOilPrices extends Command
+{
+    protected $signature = 'oil:predict {--fetch : Fetch latest FRED prices before predicting}';
+
+    protected $description = 'Generate a Brent crude oil price direction prediction';
+
+    public function handle(OilPriceService $service): int
+    {
+        try {
+            if ($this->option('fetch')) {
+                $this->info('Fetching latest Brent crude prices from FRED...');
+                $service->fetchBrentPrices();
+            }
+
+            $this->info('Generating prediction...');
+            $prediction = $service->generatePrediction();
+
+            if ($prediction === null) {
+                $this->error('Could not generate a prediction — not enough price data.');
+
+                return self::FAILURE;
+            }
+
+            $this->info(sprintf(
+                'Done. [%s] direction=%s confidence=%d%% — %s',
+                strtoupper($prediction->source->value),
+                $prediction->direction->value,
+                $prediction->confidence,
+                $prediction->reasoning,
+            ));
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            $this->error("Prediction failed: {$e->getMessage()}");
+
+            return self::FAILURE;
+        }
+
+        return self::SUCCESS;
+    }
+}

app/Enums/PredictionSource.php

@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Enums;
+
+enum PredictionSource: string
+{
+    case Llm = 'llm';
+    case Ewma = 'ewma';
+}

app/Enums/TrendDirection.php

@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Enums;
+
+enum TrendDirection: string
+{
+    case Rising = 'rising';
+    case Falling = 'falling';
+    case Flat = 'flat';
+}

app/Models/BrentPrice.php

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Models;
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Fillable;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
+use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
+
+/**
+ * @property Carbon $date
+ * @property string $price_usd
+ */
+#[Fillable(['date', 'price_usd'])]
+class BrentPrice extends Model
+{
+    public $timestamps = false;
+
+    protected $primaryKey = 'date';
+
+    public $incrementing = false;
+
+    protected $keyType = 'string';
+
+    protected function casts(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'date' => 'date',
+            'price_usd' => 'decimal:2',
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Models/PricePrediction.php

@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Models;
+
+use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
+use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Fillable;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
+use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
+
+/**
+ * @property int $id
+ * @property Carbon $predicted_for
+ * @property PredictionSource $source
+ * @property TrendDirection $direction
+ * @property int $confidence
+ * @property string|null $reasoning
+ * @property Carbon $generated_at
+ */
+#[Fillable(['predicted_for', 'source', 'direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning', 'generated_at'])]
+class PricePrediction extends Model
+{
+    public $timestamps = false;
+
+    protected function casts(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'predicted_for' => 'date',
+            'source' => PredictionSource::class,
+            'direction' => TrendDirection::class,
+            'confidence' => 'integer',
+            'generated_at' => 'datetime',
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Models/User.php

@@ -4,6 +4,8 @@ namespace App\Models;
 
 // use Illuminate\Contracts\Auth\MustVerifyEmail;
 use Database\Factories\UserFactory;
+use Filament\Models\Contracts\FilamentUser;
+use Filament\Panel;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Fillable;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Hidden;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\HasFactory;
@@ -14,7 +16,7 @@ use Laravel\Fortify\TwoFactorAuthenticatable;
 
 #[Fillable(['name', 'email', 'password'])]
 #[Hidden(['password', 'two_factor_secret', 'two_factor_recovery_codes', 'remember_token'])]
-class User extends Authenticatable
+class User extends Authenticatable implements FilamentUser
 {
     /** @use HasFactory<UserFactory> */
     use HasFactory, Notifiable, TwoFactorAuthenticatable;
@@ -32,6 +34,11 @@ class User extends Authenticatable
         ];
     }
 
+    public function canAccessPanel(Panel $panel): bool
+    {
+        return $this->is_admin === true;
+    }
+
     /**
      * Get the user's initials
      */

app/Providers/Filament/AdminPanelProvider.php

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Providers\Filament;
+
+use Filament\Http\Middleware\Authenticate;
+use Filament\Http\Middleware\AuthenticateSession;
+use Filament\Http\Middleware\DisableBladeIconComponents;
+use Filament\Http\Middleware\DispatchServingFilamentEvent;
+use Filament\Pages\Dashboard;
+use Filament\Panel;
+use Filament\PanelProvider;
+use Filament\Support\Colors\Color;
+use Filament\Widgets\AccountWidget;
+use Filament\Widgets\FilamentInfoWidget;
+use Illuminate\Cookie\Middleware\AddQueuedCookiesToResponse;
+use Illuminate\Cookie\Middleware\EncryptCookies;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Http\Middleware\PreventRequestForgery;
+use Illuminate\Routing\Middleware\SubstituteBindings;
+use Illuminate\Session\Middleware\StartSession;
+use Illuminate\View\Middleware\ShareErrorsFromSession;
+
+class AdminPanelProvider extends PanelProvider
+{
+    public function panel(Panel $panel): Panel
+    {
+        return $panel
+            ->default()
+            ->id('admin')
+            ->path('admin')
+            ->login()
+            ->colors([
+                'primary' => Color::Amber,
+            ])
+            ->discoverResources(in: app_path('Filament/Resources'), for: 'App\Filament\Resources')
+            ->discoverPages(in: app_path('Filament/Pages'), for: 'App\Filament\Pages')
+            ->pages([
+                Dashboard::class,
+            ])
+            ->discoverWidgets(in: app_path('Filament/Widgets'), for: 'App\Filament\Widgets')
+            ->widgets([
+                AccountWidget::class,
+                FilamentInfoWidget::class,
+            ])
+            ->middleware([
+                EncryptCookies::class,
+                AddQueuedCookiesToResponse::class,
+                StartSession::class,
+                AuthenticateSession::class,
+                ShareErrorsFromSession::class,
+                PreventRequestForgery::class,
+                SubstituteBindings::class,
+                DisableBladeIconComponents::class,
+                DispatchServingFilamentEvent::class,
+            ])
+            ->authMiddleware([
+                Authenticate::class,
+            ]);
+    }
+}

app/Services/OilPriceService.php

@@ -0,0 +1,280 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services;
+
+use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
+use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
+use App\Models\BrentPrice;
+use App\Models\PricePrediction;
+use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
+use Throwable;
+
+class OilPriceService
+{
+    /**
+     * Decay factor for EWMA. Higher = more weight on recent prices.
+     */
+    private const float EWMA_ALPHA = 0.3;
+
+    /**
+     * Minimum % change in EWMA to be considered rising/falling.
+     */
+    private const float EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT = 1.5;
+
+    /**
+     * EWMA confidence is capped lower than LLM — it's a simpler model.
+     */
+    private const int EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 65;
+
+    /**
+     * LLM confidence is capped — no model should be certain about oil prices.
+     */
+    private const int LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 85;
+
+    /**
+     * Minimum price rows needed before EWMA is meaningful.
+     */
+    private const int EWMA_MIN_ROWS = 14;
+
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
+    ) {}
+
+    /**
+     * Fetch the last 30 days of Brent crude prices from FRED and store them.
+     */
+    public function fetchBrentPrices(): void
+    {
+        $url = 'https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations';
+
+        try {
+            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('fred', 'GET', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(10)
+                ->get($url, [
+                    'series_id' => 'DCOILBRENTEU',
+                    'api_key' => config('services.fred.api_key'),
+                    'sort_order' => 'desc',
+                    'limit' => 30,
+                    'file_type' => 'json',
+                ]));
+
+            if (! $response->successful()) {
+                Log::error('OilPriceService: FRED request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
+
+                return;
+            }
+
+            $rows = collect($response->json('observations') ?? [])
+                ->filter(fn (array $obs) => $obs['value'] !== '.') // FRED uses '.' for missing data
+                ->map(fn (array $obs) => [
+                    'date' => $obs['date'],
+                    'price_usd' => (float) $obs['value'],
+                ])
+                ->all();
+
+            if (empty($rows)) {
+                Log::warning('OilPriceService: no valid FRED observations returned');
+
+                return;
+            }
+
+            BrentPrice::upsert($rows, ['date'], ['price_usd']);
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            Log::error('OilPriceService: fetchBrentPrices failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+        }
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Generate a prediction using LLM first, falling back to EWMA.
+     * Stores the result in price_predictions and returns it.
+     */
+    public function generatePrediction(): ?PricePrediction
+    {
+        $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
+
+        if ($prices->count() < self::EWMA_MIN_ROWS) {
+            Log::warning('OilPriceService: not enough price data to generate prediction', [
+                'rows' => $prices->count(),
+            ]);
+
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        $prediction = null;
+
+        if (config('services.anthropic.api_key')) {
+            $prediction = $this->generateLlmPrediction($prices);
+        }
+
+        $prediction ??= $this->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
+
+        if ($prediction !== null) {
+            PricePrediction::create($prediction->toArray());
+        }
+
+        return $prediction;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Option B — LLM prediction via Anthropic API.
+     * Sends recent prices + pre-computed EWMA context and asks for direction + confidence.
+     */
+    public function generateLlmPrediction(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
+    {
+        $chronological = $prices->sortBy('date');
+        $ewma3 = $this->computeEwma($chronological->take(-3)->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
+        $ewma7 = $this->computeEwma($chronological->take(-7)->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
+        $ewma14 = $this->computeEwma($chronological->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
+
+        $priceList = $chronological
+            ->map(fn (BrentPrice $p) => "{$p->date->toDateString()}: \${$p->price_usd}")
+            ->implode("\n");
+
+        $prompt = <<<PROMPT
+            You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
+            Your goal is to predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
+
+            Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
+            {$priceList}
+
+            Pre-computed indicators:
+            - 3-day EWMA:  \${$ewma3}
+            - 7-day EWMA:  \${$ewma7}
+            - 14-day EWMA: \${$ewma14}
+
+            Respond with JSON only, no other text:
+            {"direction": "rising|falling|flat", "confidence": 0-85, "reasoning": "one sentence"}
+            PROMPT;
+
+        $url = 'https://api.anthropic.com/v1/messages';
+
+        try {
+            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('anthropic', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
+                ->withHeaders([
+                    'x-api-key' => config('services.anthropic.api_key'),
+                    'anthropic-version' => '2023-06-01',
+                ])
+                ->post($url, [
+                    'model' => config('services.anthropic.model', 'claude-haiku-4-5-20251001'),
+                    'max_tokens' => 256,
+                    'messages' => [
+                        ['role' => 'user', 'content' => $prompt],
+                    ],
+                ]));
+
+            if (! $response->successful()) {
+                Log::error('OilPriceService: Anthropic request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
+
+                return null;
+            }
+
+            $text = $response->json('content.0.text') ?? '';
+            $text = preg_replace('/^```(?:json)?\s*/m', '', trim($text));
+            $text = preg_replace('/```\s*$/m', '', $text);
+            $data = json_decode(trim($text), true);
+
+            if (! isset($data['direction'], $data['confidence'], $data['reasoning'])) {
+                Log::error('OilPriceService: unexpected LLM response format', ['text' => $text]);
+
+                return null;
+            }
+
+            $direction = TrendDirection::tryFrom($data['direction']);
+            $confidence = min((int) $data['confidence'], self::LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE);
+
+            if ($direction === null) {
+                Log::error('OilPriceService: invalid direction in LLM response', ['direction' => $data['direction']]);
+
+                return null;
+            }
+
+            return new PricePrediction([
+                'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
+                'source' => PredictionSource::Llm,
+                'direction' => $direction,
+                'confidence' => $confidence,
+                'reasoning' => $data['reasoning'],
+                'generated_at' => now(),
+            ]);
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            Log::error('OilPriceService: generateLlmPrediction failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+
+            return null;
+        }
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Option A — EWMA-based trend extrapolation. Used as fallback when LLM is unavailable.
+     * Compares the 3-day EWMA against the 7-day EWMA to detect direction.
+     */
+    public function generateEwmaPrediction(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
+    {
+        $chronological = $prices->sortBy('date')->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all();
+
+        if (count($chronological) < self::EWMA_MIN_ROWS) {
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        $ewma3 = $this->computeEwma(array_slice($chronological, -3));
+        $ewma7 = $this->computeEwma(array_slice($chronological, -7));
+
+        $changePct = (($ewma3 - $ewma7) / $ewma7) * 100;
+
+        [$direction, $confidence] = match (true) {
+            $changePct >= self::EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT => [
+                TrendDirection::Rising,
+                $this->ewmaConfidence($changePct),
+            ],
+            $changePct <= -self::EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT => [
+                TrendDirection::Falling,
+                $this->ewmaConfidence(abs($changePct)),
+            ],
+            default => [TrendDirection::Flat, 50],
+        };
+
+        $reasoning = sprintf(
+            '3-day EWMA ($%.2f) vs 7-day EWMA ($%.2f): %.2f%% %s.',
+            $ewma3,
+            $ewma7,
+            abs($changePct),
+            $direction === TrendDirection::Flat ? 'difference (flat)' : $direction->value,
+        );
+
+        return new PricePrediction([
+            'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
+            'source' => PredictionSource::Ewma,
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'confidence' => $confidence,
+            'reasoning' => $reasoning,
+            'generated_at' => now(),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Compute Exponential Weighted Moving Average for a series of prices.
+     *
+     * @param  float[]  $prices  Chronological order (oldest first)
+     */
+    private function computeEwma(array $prices): float
+    {
+        $ema = $prices[0];
+
+        foreach (array_slice($prices, 1) as $price) {
+            $ema = self::EWMA_ALPHA * $price + (1 - self::EWMA_ALPHA) * $ema;
+        }
+
+        return round($ema, 4);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Map a % change magnitude to a 0–EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE confidence score.
+     * 1.5% → ~30, 3% → ~50, 5%+ → 65.
+     */
+    private function ewmaConfidence(float $changePct): int
+    {
+        $scaled = min($changePct / 5.0, 1.0) * self::EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE;
+
+        return (int) round(max(30, $scaled));
+    }
+}

bootstrap/providers.php

@@ -1,9 +1,7 @@
 <?php
 
-use App\Providers\AppServiceProvider;
-use App\Providers\FortifyServiceProvider;
-
 return [
-    AppServiceProvider::class,
+    App\Providers\AppServiceProvider::class,
-    FortifyServiceProvider::class,
+    App\Providers\Filament\AdminPanelProvider::class,
+    App\Providers\FortifyServiceProvider::class,
 ];

composer.json

@@ -3,13 +3,11 @@
     "name": "laravel/livewire-starter-kit",
     "type": "project",
     "description": "The official Laravel starter kit for Livewire.",
-    "keywords": [
+    "keywords": ["laravel", "framework"],
-        "laravel",
-        "framework"
-    ],
     "license": "MIT",
     "require": {
         "php": "^8.3",
+        "filament/filament": "^5.0",
         "laravel/fortify": "^1.34",
         "laravel/framework": "^13.0",
         "laravel/tinker": "^3.0",
@@ -69,7 +67,8 @@
         ],
         "post-autoload-dump": [
             "Illuminate\\Foundation\\ComposerScripts::postAutoloadDump",
-            "@php artisan package:discover --ansi"
+            "@php artisan package:discover --ansi",
+            "@php artisan filament:upgrade"
         ],
         "post-update-cmd": [
             "@php artisan vendor:publish --tag=laravel-assets --ansi --force"

config/services.php

@@ -41,4 +41,13 @@ return [
         'client_secret' => env('FUEL_FINDER_CLIENT_SECRET'),
     ],
 
+    'fred' => [
+        'api_key' => env('FRED_API_KEY'),
+    ],
+
+    'anthropic' => [
+        'api_key' => env('ANTHROPIC_API_KEY'),
+        'model' => env('ANTHROPIC_MODEL', 'claude-haiku-4-5-20251001'),
+    ],
+
 ];

database/migrations/2026_04_04_115852_create_brent_prices_table.php

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+<?php
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Migrations\Migration;
+use Illuminate\Database\Schema\Blueprint;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schema;
+
+return new class extends Migration
+{
+    /**
+     * Run the migrations.
+     */
+    public function up(): void
+    {
+        Schema::create('brent_prices', function (Blueprint $table) {
+            $table->date('date')->primary();
+            $table->decimal('price_usd')->comment('Brent crude spot price in USD per barrel');
+        });
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Reverse the migrations.
+     */
+    public function down(): void
+    {
+        Schema::dropIfExists('brent_prices');
+    }
+};

database/migrations/2026_04_04_115852_create_price_predictions_table.php

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+<?php
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Migrations\Migration;
+use Illuminate\Database\Schema\Blueprint;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schema;
+
+return new class extends Migration
+{
+    /**
+     * Run the migrations.
+     */
+    public function up(): void
+    {
+        Schema::create('price_predictions', function (Blueprint $table) {
+            $table->id();
+            $table->date('predicted_for')->comment('The date this prediction covers');
+            $table->enum('source', ['llm', 'ewma']);
+            $table->enum('direction', ['rising', 'falling', 'flat']);
+            $table->tinyInteger('confidence')->unsigned()->comment('0–100 confidence score');
+            $table->text('reasoning')->nullable()->comment('LLM explanation or EWMA summary');
+            $table->datetime('generated_at');
+
+            $table->index(['predicted_for', 'source']);
+        });
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Reverse the migrations.
+     */
+    public function down(): void
+    {
+        Schema::dropIfExists('price_predictions');
+    }
+};

database/migrations/2026_04_04_123728_add_is_admin_to_users_table.php

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+<?php
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Migrations\Migration;
+use Illuminate\Database\Schema\Blueprint;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schema;
+
+return new class extends Migration
+{
+    /**
+     * Run the migrations.
+     */
+    public function up(): void
+    {
+        Schema::table('users', function (Blueprint $table) {
+            $table->boolean('is_admin')->default(false)->after('remember_token');
+        });
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Reverse the migrations.
+     */
+    public function down(): void
+    {
+        Schema::table('users', function (Blueprint $table) {
+            $table->dropColumn('is_admin');
+        });
+    }
+};

docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-04-filament-admin-design.md

@@ -0,0 +1,160 @@
+# Filament Admin Panel — Design Spec
+
+**Date:** 2026-04-04  
+**Stack:** Laravel 11, Filament v5, Livewire v4  
+**Scope:** Admin panel for FuelAlert — internal tooling only, no user-facing exposure
+
+---
+
+## 1. Access & Auth
+
+- Filament panel mounted at `/admin`
+- Protected by `is_admin` boolean on `users` table
+- Migration adds `is_admin TINYINT(1) DEFAULT 0` to `users`
+- `AdminPanelProvider` uses `->authGuard('web')` (same guard as the main app — no separate admin users table)
+- `canAccessPanel()` check: `$user->is_admin === true`
+- `uovidiu@sent.com` seeded as admin via a dedicated `AdminSeeder` (idempotent — safe to re-run)
+- No self-registration on the admin panel — access is granted only via the `is_admin` flag
+
+---
+
+## 2. Dashboard Page
+
+Default landing page. Four `StatsOverviewWidget` cards:
+
+| Stat | Source | Alert |
+|---|---|---|
+| Total users | `users` count | — |
+| Stations in DB | `stations` count + `max(last_seen_at)` | — |
+| Latest oil prediction | Most recent `price_predictions` row — direction, confidence, source | Yellow if > 24h old |
+| API errors (24h) | `api_logs` where `status_code >= 400` or `error IS NOT NULL`, last 24h | Red if > 0 |
+
+No charts on the dashboard — keep it scannable. Charts live inside individual resources.
+
+---
+
+## 3. Resources
+
+### 3.1 Users (`UserResource`)
+
+**Purpose:** View all registered users, manage admin flag, correct postcodes.
+
+**Table columns:** name, email, postcode, is_admin (badge), created_at  
+**Filters:** is_admin toggle  
+**Actions:**
+- Edit: `is_admin` toggle, `postcode` text field (no other fields editable from admin)
+- Delete: allowed (hard delete, with confirmation modal)
+
+**Notes:**
+- No subscription tier column yet — add when Cashier is integrated
+- No impersonation in v1 — add later when user dashboard exists
+
+---
+
+### 3.2 API Logs (`ApiLogResource`)
+
+**Purpose:** Primary debugging tool — see every outbound HTTP call made by the scheduler.
+
+**Table columns:** service (badge), method, url (truncated), status_code (colour-coded), duration_ms, error (truncated), created_at  
+**Filters:** service (select: `fuel_finder`, `fred`, `anthropic`), errors only (toggle: where error IS NOT NULL or status >= 400), date range  
+**Default sort:** created_at DESC  
+**Actions:** View (modal showing full url, full error, request/response if available) — no edit, no delete  
+
+**Colour coding for status_code:**
+- 2xx → success (green)
+- 4xx → warning (yellow)
+- 5xx / null → danger (red)
+
+---
+
+### 3.3 Oil Predictions (`OilPredictionResource`)
+
+**Purpose:** Verify the daily `oil:predict` job is running and producing sensible output.
+
+**Table columns:** predicted_for (date), source (badge: LLM / EWMA), direction (badge: rising/falling/flat with colour), confidence (progress bar 0–100), reasoning (truncated), generated_at  
+**Filters:** source, direction, date range  
+**Default sort:** predicted_for DESC  
+**Actions:**
+- View (modal showing full reasoning text)
+- **Run prediction now** (page-level action): executes `php artisan oil:predict` via `Artisan::call()`, shows success/failure notification
+
+**No edit/delete** — predictions are immutable audit records.
+
+---
+
+### 3.4 Brent Prices (`BrentPriceResource`)
+
+**Purpose:** Verify FRED fetch is populating data correctly.
+
+**Table columns:** date, price_usd  
+**Default sort:** date DESC  
+**Actions:** none  
+
+Simple read-only table. No filters needed — data is always chronological. Include a line chart widget (`BrentPriceChartWidget`) showing the last 30 days using Filament's built-in chart widget.
+
+---
+
+### 3.5 Stations (`StationResource`)
+
+**Purpose:** Browse the ~14,500 UK stations; verify supermarket tagging and closure flags.
+
+**Table columns:** trading_name, brand_name, postcode, city, is_supermarket (badge), is_motorway_service_station (badge), temporary_closure (badge), last_seen_at  
+**Filters:** is_supermarket, is_motorway_service_station, temporary_closure, permanent_closure, postcode prefix (text search)  
+**Search:** trading_name, brand_name, postcode  
+**Default sort:** last_seen_at DESC  
+**Actions:**
+- View (modal with full address, amenities, opening_times, fuel_types JSON)
+- **Trigger full poll** (page-level action): dispatches a queued `PollFuelPricesJob` (wraps `fuel:poll --full`) rather than calling Artisan synchronously — full station refresh on 14,500 records would exceed HTTP timeout. Shows "Poll dispatched to queue" notification immediately; result visible in API Logs once complete.
+
+**No edit** — station data is owned by Fuel Finder API, overwritten on each poll.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Resources Planned But Not Built Yet
+
+These will be added once the underlying tables/services exist:
+
+| Resource | Depends on |
+|---|---|
+| Alerts Log | `alerts` table + `NotificationDispatchService` |
+| Scoring Results | `scoring_results` table + `AlertScoringService` |
+| Subscriptions | Cashier integration + `subscriptions` table |
+
+---
+
+## 5. Navigation Groups
+
+```
+Dashboard (no group)
+├── Users
+Data
+├── Stations
+├── Brent Prices
+├── Oil Predictions
+System
+├── API Logs
+```
+
+---
+
+## 6. Build Order
+
+1. Migration — add `is_admin` to `users`
+2. `AdminSeeder` — seed `uovidiu@sent.com` as admin
+3. `AdminPanelProvider` — mount panel, configure auth
+4. `ApiLogResource` — highest immediate value
+5. `UserResource` — manage admin flag
+6. `OilPredictionResource` + run-prediction action
+7. `BrentPriceResource` + chart widget
+8. `StationResource` + full-poll action
+9. Dashboard widgets (last — depends on all resources being stable)
+
+---
+
+## 7. Out of Scope (v1)
+
+- Role-based permissions beyond `is_admin` — single admin user is sufficient
+- Activity log / audit trail of admin actions
+- Dark mode customisation
+- Custom Filament theme — use default
+- Two-factor auth on admin panel — covered by app-level 2FA (Fortify)

public/fonts/filament/filament/inter/index.css

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+@font-face{font-family:Inter Variable;font-style:normal;font-display:swap;font-weight:100 900;src:url("./inter-cyrillic-ext-wght-normal-IYF56FF6.woff2") format("woff2-variations");unicode-range:U+0460-052F,U+1C80-1C8A,U+20B4,U+2DE0-2DFF,U+A640-A69F,U+FE2E-FE2F}@font-face{font-family:Inter Variable;font-style:normal;font-display:swap;font-weight:100 900;src:url("./inter-cyrillic-wght-normal-JEOLYBOO.woff2") format("woff2-variations");unicode-range:U+0301,U+0400-045F,U+0490-0491,U+04B0-04B1,U+2116}@font-face{font-family:Inter Variable;font-style:normal;font-display:swap;font-weight:100 900;src:url("./inter-greek-ext-wght-normal-EOVOK2B5.woff2") format("woff2-variations");unicode-range:U+1F00-1FFF}@font-face{font-family:Inter Variable;font-style:normal;font-display:swap;font-weight:100 900;src:url("./inter-greek-wght-normal-IRE366VL.woff2") format("woff2-variations");unicode-range:U+0370-0377,U+037A-037F,U+0384-038A,U+038C,U+038E-03A1,U+03A3-03FF}@font-face{font-family:Inter Variable;font-style:normal;font-display:swap;font-weight:100 900;src:url("./inter-vietnamese-wght-normal-CE5GGD3W.woff2") format("woff2-variations");unicode-range:U+0102-0103,U+0110-0111,U+0128-0129,U+0168-0169,U+01A0-01A1,U+01AF-01B0,U+0300-0301,U+0303-0304,U+0308-0309,U+0323,U+0329,U+1EA0-1EF9,U+20AB}@font-face{font-family:Inter Variable;font-style:normal;font-display:swap;font-weight:100 900;src:url("./inter-latin-ext-wght-normal-HA22NDSG.woff2") format("woff2-variations");unicode-range:U+0100-02BA,U+02BD-02C5,U+02C7-02CC,U+02CE-02D7,U+02DD-02FF,U+0304,U+0308,U+0329,U+1D00-1DBF,U+1E00-1E9F,U+1EF2-1EFF,U+2020,U+20A0-20AB,U+20AD-20C0,U+2113,U+2C60-2C7F,U+A720-A7FF}@font-face{font-family:Inter Variable;font-style:normal;font-display:swap;font-weight:100 900;src:url("./inter-latin-wght-normal-NRMW37G5.woff2") format("woff2-variations");unicode-range:U+0000-00FF,U+0131,U+0152-0153,U+02BB-02BC,U+02C6,U+02DA,U+02DC,U+0304,U+0308,U+0329,U+2000-206F,U+20AC,U+2122,U+2191,U+2193,U+2212,U+2215,U+FEFF,U+FFFD}

public/js/filament/actions/actions.js

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+(()=>{var n=({livewireId:e})=>({actionNestingIndex:null,init(){window.addEventListener("sync-action-modals",t=>{t.detail.id===e&&this.syncActionModals(t.detail.newActionNestingIndex,t.detail.shouldOverlayParentActions??!1)})},syncActionModals(t,i=!1){if(this.actionNestingIndex===t){this.actionNestingIndex!==null&&this.$nextTick(()=>this.openModal());return}let s=this.actionNestingIndex!==null&&t!==null&&t>this.actionNestingIndex;if(this.actionNestingIndex!==null&&!(i&&s)&&this.closeModal(),this.actionNestingIndex=t,this.actionNestingIndex!==null){if(!this.$el.querySelector(`#${this.generateModalId(t)}`)){this.$nextTick(()=>this.openModal());return}this.openModal()}},generateModalId(t){return`fi-${e}-action-`+t},openModal(){let t=this.generateModalId(this.actionNestingIndex);document.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("open-modal",{bubbles:!0,composed:!0,detail:{id:t}}))},closeModal(){let t=this.generateModalId(this.actionNestingIndex);document.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("close-modal-quietly",{bubbles:!0,composed:!0,detail:{id:t}}))}});document.addEventListener("alpine:init",()=>{window.Alpine.data("filamentActionModals",n)});})();

public/js/filament/forms/components/checkbox-list.js

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+function c({livewireId:s}){return{areAllCheckboxesChecked:!1,checkboxListOptions:[],search:"",unsubscribeLivewireHook:null,visibleCheckboxListOptions:[],init(){this.checkboxListOptions=Array.from(this.$root.querySelectorAll(".fi-fo-checkbox-list-option")),this.updateVisibleCheckboxListOptions(),this.$nextTick(()=>{this.checkIfAllCheckboxesAreChecked()}),this.unsubscribeLivewireHook=Livewire.interceptMessage(({message:e,onSuccess:t})=>{t(()=>{this.$nextTick(()=>{e.component.id===s&&(this.checkboxListOptions=Array.from(this.$root.querySelectorAll(".fi-fo-checkbox-list-option")),this.updateVisibleCheckboxListOptions(),this.checkIfAllCheckboxesAreChecked())})})}),this.$watch("search",()=>{this.updateVisibleCheckboxListOptions(),this.checkIfAllCheckboxesAreChecked()})},checkIfAllCheckboxesAreChecked(){this.areAllCheckboxesChecked=this.visibleCheckboxListOptions.length===this.visibleCheckboxListOptions.filter(e=>e.querySelector("input[type=checkbox]:checked, input[type=checkbox]:disabled")).length},toggleAllCheckboxes(){this.checkIfAllCheckboxesAreChecked();let e=!this.areAllCheckboxesChecked;this.visibleCheckboxListOptions.forEach(t=>{let i=t.querySelector("input[type=checkbox]");i.disabled||i.checked!==e&&(i.checked=e,i.dispatchEvent(new Event("change")))}),this.areAllCheckboxesChecked=e},updateVisibleCheckboxListOptions(){this.visibleCheckboxListOptions=this.checkboxListOptions.filter(e=>["",null,void 0].includes(this.search)||e.querySelector(".fi-fo-checkbox-list-option-label")?.innerText.toLowerCase().includes(this.search.toLowerCase())?!0:e.querySelector(".fi-fo-checkbox-list-option-description")?.innerText.toLowerCase().includes(this.search.toLowerCase()))},destroy(){this.unsubscribeLivewireHook?.()}}}export{c as default};

public/js/filament/forms/components/key-value.js

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+function a({state:r}){return{state:r,rows:[],init(){this.updateRows(),this.rows.length<=0?this.rows.push({key:"",value:""}):this.updateState(),this.$watch("state",(e,t)=>{if(!Array.isArray(e))return;let s=i=>i===null?0:Array.isArray(i)?i.length:typeof i!="object"?0:Object.keys(i).length;s(e)===0&&s(t)===0||this.updateRows()})},addRow(){this.rows.push({key:"",value:""}),this.updateState()},deleteRow(e){this.rows.splice(e,1),this.rows.length<=0&&this.addRow(),this.updateState()},reorderRows(e){let t=Alpine.raw(this.rows);this.rows=[];let s=t.splice(e.oldIndex,1)[0];t.splice(e.newIndex,0,s),this.$nextTick(()=>{this.rows=t,this.updateState()})},updateRows(){let t=Alpine.raw(this.state).map(({key:s,value:i})=>({key:s,value:i}));this.rows.forEach(s=>{(s.key===""||s.key===null)&&t.push({key:"",value:s.value})}),this.rows=t},updateState(){let e=[];this.rows.forEach(t=>{t.key===""||t.key===null||e.push({key:t.key,value:t.value})}),JSON.stringify(this.state)!==JSON.stringify(e)&&(this.state=e)}}}export{a as default};

public/js/filament/forms/components/tags-input.js

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+function s({state:n,splitKeys:a}){return{newTag:"",state:n,createTag(){if(this.newTag=this.newTag.trim(),this.newTag!==""){if(this.state.includes(this.newTag)){this.newTag="";return}this.state.push(this.newTag),this.newTag=""}},deleteTag(t){this.state=this.state.filter(e=>e!==t)},reorderTags(t){let e=this.state.splice(t.oldIndex,1)[0];this.state.splice(t.newIndex,0,e),this.state=[...this.state]},input:{"x-on:blur":"createTag()","x-model":"newTag","x-on:keydown"(t){["Enter",...a].includes(t.key)&&(t.preventDefault(),t.stopPropagation(),this.createTag())},"x-on:paste"(){this.$nextTick(()=>{if(a.length===0){this.createTag();return}let t=a.map(e=>e.replace(/[/\-\\^$*+?.()|[\]{}]/g,"\\$&")).join("|");this.newTag.split(new RegExp(t,"g")).forEach(e=>{this.newTag=e,this.createTag()})})}}}}export{s as default};

public/js/filament/forms/components/textarea.js

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+function n({initialHeight:e,shouldAutosize:i,state:h}){return{state:h,wrapperEl:null,init(){this.wrapperEl=this.$el.parentNode,this.setInitialHeight(),i?this.$watch("state",()=>{this.resize()}):this.setUpResizeObserver()},setInitialHeight(){this.$el.scrollHeight<=0||(this.wrapperEl.style.height=e+"rem")},resize(){if(this.$el.scrollHeight<=0)return;let t=this.$el.style.height;this.$el.style.height="0px";let r=this.$el.scrollHeight;this.$el.style.height=t;let l=parseFloat(e)*parseFloat(getComputedStyle(document.documentElement).fontSize),s=Math.max(r,l)+"px";this.wrapperEl.style.height!==s&&(this.wrapperEl.style.height=s)},setUpResizeObserver(){new ResizeObserver(()=>{this.wrapperEl.style.height=this.$el.style.height}).observe(this.$el)}}}export{n as default};

public/js/filament/notifications/notifications.js

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+(()=>{function c(s,t=()=>{}){let i=!1;return function(){i?t.apply(this,arguments):(i=!0,s.apply(this,arguments))}}var d=s=>{s.data("notificationComponent",({notification:t})=>({isShown:!1,computedStyle:null,transitionDuration:null,transitionEasing:null,unsubscribeLivewireHook:null,init(){this.computedStyle=window.getComputedStyle(this.$el),this.transitionDuration=parseFloat(this.computedStyle.transitionDuration)*1e3,this.transitionEasing=this.computedStyle.transitionTimingFunction,this.configureTransitions(),this.configureAnimations(),t.duration&&t.duration!=="persistent"&&setTimeout(()=>{if(!this.$el.matches(":hover")){this.close();return}this.$el.addEventListener("mouseleave",()=>this.close())},t.duration),this.isShown=!0},configureTransitions(){let i=this.computedStyle.display,e=()=>{s.mutateDom(()=>{this.$el.style.setProperty("display",i),this.$el.style.setProperty("visibility","visible")}),this.$el._x_isShown=!0},o=()=>{s.mutateDom(()=>{this.$el._x_isShown?this.$el.style.setProperty("visibility","hidden"):this.$el.style.setProperty("display","none")})},r=c(n=>n?e():o(),n=>{this.$el._x_toggleAndCascadeWithTransitions(this.$el,n,e,o)});s.effect(()=>r(this.isShown))},configureAnimations(){let i;this.unsubscribeLivewireHook=Livewire.interceptMessage(({onFinish:e,onSuccess:o})=>{requestAnimationFrame(()=>{let r=()=>this.$el.getBoundingClientRect().top,n=r();e(()=>{i=()=>{this.isShown&&this.$el.animate([{transform:`translateY(${n-r()}px)`},{transform:"translateY(0px)"}],{duration:this.transitionDuration,easing:this.transitionEasing})},this.$el.getAnimations().forEach(l=>l.finish())}),o(({payload:l})=>{l?.snapshot?.data?.isFilamentNotificationsComponent&&typeof i=="function"&&i()})})})},close(){this.isShown=!1,setTimeout(()=>window.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("notificationClosed",{detail:{id:t.id}})),this.transitionDuration)},markAsRead(){window.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("markedNotificationAsRead",{detail:{id:t.id}}))},markAsUnread(){window.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("markedNotificationAsUnread",{detail:{id:t.id}}))},destroy(){this.unsubscribeLivewireHook?.()}}))};var h=class{constructor(){return this.id(crypto.randomUUID?.()??"10000000-1000-4000-8000-100000000000".replace(/[018]/g,t=>(+t^crypto.getRandomValues(new Uint8Array(1))[0]&15>>+t/4).toString(16))),this}id(t){return this.id=t,this}title(t){return this.title=t,this}body(t){return this.body=t,this}actions(t){return this.actions=t,this}status(t){return this.status=t,this}color(t){return this.color=t,this}icon(t){return this.icon=t,this}iconColor(t){return this.iconColor=t,this}duration(t){return this.duration=t,this}seconds(t){return this.duration(t*1e3),this}persistent(){return this.duration("persistent"),this}danger(){return this.status("danger"),this}info(){return this.status("info"),this}success(){return this.status("success"),this}warning(){return this.status("warning"),this}view(t){return this.view=t,this}viewData(t){return this.viewData=t,this}send(){return window.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("notificationSent",{detail:{notification:this}})),this}},a=class{constructor(t){return this.name(t),this}name(t){return this.name=t,this}color(t){return this.color=t,this}dispatch(t,i){return this.event(t),this.eventData(i),this}dispatchSelf(t,i){return this.dispatch(t,i),this.dispatchDirection="self",this}dispatchTo(t,i,e){return this.dispatch(i,e),this.dispatchDirection="to",this.dispatchToComponent=t,this}emit(t,i){return this.dispatch(t,i),this}emitSelf(t,i){return this.dispatchSelf(t,i),this}emitTo(t,i,e){return this.dispatchTo(t,i,e),this}dispatchDirection(t){return this.dispatchDirection=t,this}dispatchToComponent(t){return this.dispatchToComponent=t,this}event(t){return this.event=t,this}eventData(t){return this.eventData=t,this}extraAttributes(t){return this.extraAttributes=t,this}icon(t){return this.icon=t,this}iconPosition(t){return this.iconPosition=t,this}outlined(t=!0){return this.isOutlined=t,this}disabled(t=!0){return this.isDisabled=t,this}label(t){return this.label=t,this}close(t=!0){return this.shouldClose=t,this}openUrlInNewTab(t=!0){return this.shouldOpenUrlInNewTab=t,this}size(t){return this.size=t,this}url(t){return this.url=t,this}view(t){return this.view=t,this}button(){return this.view("filament::components.button.index"),this}grouped(){return this.view("filament::components.dropdown.list.item"),this}iconButton(){return this.view("filament::components.icon-button"),this}link(){return this.view("filament::components.link"),this}},u=class{constructor(t){return this.actions(t),this}actions(t){return this.actions=t.map(i=>i.grouped()),this}color(t){return this.color=t,this}icon(t){return this.icon=t,this}iconPosition(t){return this.iconPosition=t,this}label(t){return this.label=t,this}tooltip(t){return this.tooltip=t,this}};window.FilamentNotificationAction=a;window.FilamentNotificationActionGroup=u;window.FilamentNotification=h;document.addEventListener("alpine:init",()=>{window.Alpine.plugin(d)});})();

public/js/filament/schemas/components/actions.js

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+var i=()=>({isSticky:!1,width:0,resizeObserver:null,boundUpdateWidth:null,init(){let e=this.$el.parentElement;e&&(this.updateWidth(),this.resizeObserver=new ResizeObserver(()=>this.updateWidth()),this.resizeObserver.observe(e),this.boundUpdateWidth=this.updateWidth.bind(this),window.addEventListener("resize",this.boundUpdateWidth))},enableSticky(){this.isSticky=this.$el.getBoundingClientRect().top>0},disableSticky(){this.isSticky=!1},updateWidth(){let e=this.$el.parentElement;if(!e)return;let t=getComputedStyle(this.$root.querySelector(".fi-ac"));this.width=e.offsetWidth+parseInt(t.marginInlineStart,10)*-1+parseInt(t.marginInlineEnd,10)*-1},destroy(){this.resizeObserver&&(this.resizeObserver.disconnect(),this.resizeObserver=null),this.boundUpdateWidth&&(window.removeEventListener("resize",this.boundUpdateWidth),this.boundUpdateWidth=null)}});export{i as default};

public/js/filament/schemas/components/tabs.js

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+function v({activeTab:w,isScrollable:f,isTabPersistedInQueryString:m,livewireId:g,tab:T,tabQueryStringKey:r}){return{boundResizeHandler:null,isScrollable:f,resizeDebounceTimer:null,tab:T,unsubscribeLivewireHook:null,withinDropdownIndex:null,withinDropdownMounted:!1,init(){let t=this.getTabs(),e=new URLSearchParams(window.location.search);m&&e.has(r)&&t.includes(e.get(r))&&(this.tab=e.get(r)),(!this.tab||!t.includes(this.tab))&&(this.tab=t[w-1]),this.$watch("tab",()=>{this.updateQueryString(),this.autofocusFields()}),this.autofocusFields(!0),this.unsubscribeLivewireHook=Livewire.interceptMessage(({message:i,onSuccess:a})=>{a(()=>{this.$nextTick(()=>{if(i.component.id!==g)return;let l=this.getTabs();l.includes(this.tab)||(this.tab=l[w-1]??this.tab)})})}),f||(this.boundResizeHandler=this.debouncedUpdateTabsWithinDropdown.bind(this),window.addEventListener("resize",this.boundResizeHandler),this.updateTabsWithinDropdown())},calculateAvailableWidth(t){let e=window.getComputedStyle(t);return Math.floor(t.clientWidth)-Math.ceil(parseFloat(e.paddingLeft))*2},calculateContainerGap(t){let e=window.getComputedStyle(t);return Math.ceil(parseFloat(e.columnGap))},calculateDropdownIconWidth(t){let e=t.querySelector(".fi-icon");return Math.ceil(e.clientWidth)},calculateTabItemGap(t){let e=window.getComputedStyle(t);return Math.ceil(parseFloat(e.columnGap)||8)},calculateTabItemPadding(t){let e=window.getComputedStyle(t);return Math.ceil(parseFloat(e.paddingLeft))+Math.ceil(parseFloat(e.paddingRight))},findOverflowIndex(t,e,i,a,l,h){let u=t.map(n=>Math.ceil(n.clientWidth)),b=t.map(n=>{let c=n.querySelector(".fi-tabs-item-label"),s=n.querySelector(".fi-badge"),o=Math.ceil(c.clientWidth),d=s?Math.ceil(s.clientWidth):0;return{label:o,badge:d,total:o+(d>0?a+d:0)}});for(let n=0;n<t.length;n++){let c=u.slice(0,n+1).reduce((p,y)=>p+y,0),s=n*i,o=b.slice(n+1),d=o.length>0,D=d?Math.max(...o.map(p=>p.total)):0,W=d?l+D+a+h+i:0;if(c+s+W>e)return n}return-1},get isDropdownButtonVisible(){return this.withinDropdownMounted?this.withinDropdownIndex===null?!1:this.getTabs().findIndex(e=>e===this.tab)<this.withinDropdownIndex:!0},getTabs(){return this.$refs.tabsData?JSON.parse(this.$refs.tabsData.value):[]},updateQueryString(){if(!m)return;let t=new URL(window.location.href);t.searchParams.set(r,this.tab),history.replaceState(null,document.title,t.toString())},autofocusFields(t=!1){this.$nextTick(()=>{if(t&&document.activeElement&&document.activeElement!==document.body&&this.$el.compareDocumentPosition(document.activeElement)&Node.DOCUMENT_POSITION_PRECEDING)return;let e=this.$el.querySelectorAll(".fi-sc-tabs-tab.fi-active [autofocus]");for(let i of e)if(i.focus(),document.activeElement===i)break})},debouncedUpdateTabsWithinDropdown(){clearTimeout(this.resizeDebounceTimer),this.resizeDebounceTimer=setTimeout(()=>this.updateTabsWithinDropdown(),150)},async updateTabsWithinDropdown(){this.withinDropdownIndex=null,this.withinDropdownMounted=!1,await this.$nextTick();let t=this.$el.querySelector(".fi-tabs"),e=t.querySelector(".fi-tabs-item:last-child"),i=Array.from(t.children).slice(0,-1),a=i.map(s=>s.style.display);i.forEach(s=>s.style.display=""),t.offsetHeight;let l=this.calculateAvailableWidth(t),h=this.calculateContainerGap(t),u=this.calculateDropdownIconWidth(e),b=this.calculateTabItemGap(i[0]),n=this.calculateTabItemPadding(i[0]),c=this.findOverflowIndex(i,l,h,b,n,u);i.forEach((s,o)=>s.style.display=a[o]),c!==-1&&(this.withinDropdownIndex=c),this.withinDropdownMounted=!0},destroy(){this.unsubscribeLivewireHook?.(),this.boundResizeHandler&&window.removeEventListener("resize",this.boundResizeHandler),clearTimeout(this.resizeDebounceTimer)}}}export{v as default};

public/js/filament/schemas/components/wizard.js

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+function p({isSkippable:i,isStepPersistedInQueryString:n,key:r,startStep:o,stepQueryStringKey:h}){return{step:null,init(){this.step=this.getSteps().at(o-1),this.$watch("step",()=>{this.updateQueryString(),this.autofocusFields()}),this.autofocusFields(!0)},async requestNextStep(){await this.$wire.callSchemaComponentMethod(r,"nextStep",{currentStepIndex:this.getStepIndex(this.step)})},goToNextStep(){let t=this.getStepIndex(this.step)+1;t>=this.getSteps().length||(this.step=this.getSteps()[t],this.scroll())},goToPreviousStep(){let t=this.getStepIndex(this.step)-1;t<0||(this.step=this.getSteps()[t],this.scroll())},goToStep(t){let e=this.getStepIndex(t);e<=-1||!i&&e>this.getStepIndex(this.step)||(this.step=t,this.scroll())},scroll(){this.$nextTick(()=>{this.$refs.header?.children[this.getStepIndex(this.step)].scrollIntoView({behavior:"smooth",block:"start"})})},autofocusFields(t=!1){this.$nextTick(()=>{if(t&&document.activeElement&&document.activeElement!==document.body&&this.$el.compareDocumentPosition(document.activeElement)&Node.DOCUMENT_POSITION_PRECEDING)return;let e=this.$refs[`step-${this.step}`]?.querySelectorAll("[autofocus]")??[];for(let s of e)if(s.focus(),document.activeElement===s)break})},getStepIndex(t){let e=this.getSteps().findIndex(s=>s===t);return e===-1?0:e},getSteps(){return JSON.parse(this.$refs.stepsData.value)},isFirstStep(){return this.getStepIndex(this.step)<=0},isLastStep(){return this.getStepIndex(this.step)+1>=this.getSteps().length},isStepAccessible(t){return i||this.getStepIndex(this.step)>this.getStepIndex(t)},updateQueryString(){if(!n)return;let t=new URL(window.location.href);t.searchParams.set(h,this.step),history.replaceState(null,document.title,t.toString())}}}export{p as default};

public/js/filament/schemas/schemas.js

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+(()=>{var o=()=>({isSticky:!1,width:0,resizeObserver:null,boundUpdateWidth:null,init(){let i=this.$el.parentElement;i&&(this.updateWidth(),this.resizeObserver=new ResizeObserver(()=>this.updateWidth()),this.resizeObserver.observe(i),this.boundUpdateWidth=this.updateWidth.bind(this),window.addEventListener("resize",this.boundUpdateWidth))},enableSticky(){this.isSticky=this.$el.getBoundingClientRect().top>0},disableSticky(){this.isSticky=!1},updateWidth(){let i=this.$el.parentElement;if(!i)return;let e=getComputedStyle(this.$root.querySelector(".fi-ac"));this.width=i.offsetWidth+parseInt(e.marginInlineStart,10)*-1+parseInt(e.marginInlineEnd,10)*-1},destroy(){this.resizeObserver&&(this.resizeObserver.disconnect(),this.resizeObserver=null),this.boundUpdateWidth&&(window.removeEventListener("resize",this.boundUpdateWidth),this.boundUpdateWidth=null)}});var a=function(i,e,n){let t=i;if(e.startsWith("/")&&(n=!0,e=e.slice(1)),n)return e;for(;e.startsWith("../");)t=t.includes(".")?t.slice(0,t.lastIndexOf(".")):null,e=e.slice(3);return["",null,void 0].includes(t)?e:["",null,void 0].includes(e)?t:`${t}.${e}`},d=i=>{let e=Alpine.findClosest(i,n=>n.__livewire);if(!e)throw"Could not find Livewire component in DOM tree.";return e.__livewire};document.addEventListener("alpine:init",()=>{window.Alpine.data("filamentSchema",({livewireId:i})=>({handleFormValidationError(e){e.detail.livewireId===i&&this.$nextTick(()=>{let n=this.$el.querySelector("[data-validation-error]");if(!n)return;let t=n;for(;t;)t.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("expand")),t=t.parentNode;setTimeout(()=>n.closest("[data-field-wrapper]").scrollIntoView({behavior:"smooth",block:"start",inline:"start"}),200)})},isStateChanged(e,n){if(e===void 0)return!1;try{return JSON.stringify(e)!==JSON.stringify(n)}catch{return e!==n}}})),window.Alpine.data("filamentSchemaComponent",({path:i,containerPath:e,$wire:n})=>({$statePath:i,$get:(t,r)=>n.$get(a(e,t,r)),$set:(t,r,s,l=!1)=>n.$set(a(e,t,s),r,l),get $state(){return n.$get(i)}})),window.Alpine.data("filamentActionsSchemaComponent",o),Livewire.interceptMessage(({message:i,onSuccess:e})=>{e(({payload:n})=>{n.effects?.dispatches?.forEach(t=>{if(!t.params?.awaitSchemaComponent)return;let r=Array.from(i.component.el.querySelectorAll(`[wire\\:partial="schema-component::${t.params.awaitSchemaComponent}"]`)).filter(s=>d(s)===i.component);if(r.length!==1){if(r.length>1)throw`Multiple schema components found with key [${t.params.awaitSchemaComponent}].`;window.addEventListener(`schema-component-${component.id}-${t.params.awaitSchemaComponent}-loaded`,()=>{window.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(t.name,{detail:t.params}))},{once:!0})}})})})});})();

public/js/filament/tables/components/columns/checkbox.js

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+function a({name:r,recordKey:s,state:n}){return{error:void 0,isLoading:!1,state:n,unsubscribeLivewireHook:null,init(){this.unsubscribeLivewireHook=Livewire.interceptMessage(({message:e,onSuccess:t})=>{t(()=>{this.$nextTick(()=>{if(this.isLoading||e.component.id!==this.$root.closest("[wire\\:id]")?.attributes["wire:id"].value)return;let i=this.getServerState();i===void 0||Alpine.raw(this.state)===i||(this.state=i)})})}),this.$watch("state",async()=>{let e=this.getServerState();if(e===void 0||Alpine.raw(this.state)===e)return;this.isLoading=!0;let t=await this.$wire.updateTableColumnState(r,s,this.state);this.error=t?.error??void 0,!this.error&&this.$refs.serverState&&(this.$refs.serverState.value=this.state?"1":"0"),this.isLoading=!1})},getServerState(){if(this.$refs.serverState)return[1,"1"].includes(this.$refs.serverState.value)},destroy(){this.unsubscribeLivewireHook?.()}}}export{a as default};

public/js/filament/tables/components/columns/text-input.js

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+function a({name:i,recordKey:s,state:n}){return{error:void 0,isLoading:!1,state:n,unsubscribeLivewireHook:null,init(){this.unsubscribeLivewireHook=Livewire.interceptMessage(({message:e,onSuccess:t})=>{t(()=>{this.$nextTick(()=>{if(this.isLoading||e.component.id!==this.$root.closest("[wire\\:id]")?.attributes["wire:id"].value)return;let r=this.getServerState();r===void 0||this.getNormalizedState()===r||(this.state=r)})})}),this.$watch("state",async()=>{let e=this.getServerState();if(e===void 0||this.getNormalizedState()===e)return;this.isLoading=!0;let t=await this.$wire.updateTableColumnState(i,s,this.state);this.error=t?.error??void 0,!this.error&&this.$refs.serverState&&(this.$refs.serverState.value=this.getNormalizedState()),this.isLoading=!1})},getServerState(){if(this.$refs.serverState)return[null,void 0].includes(this.$refs.serverState.value)?"":this.$refs.serverState.value.replaceAll('\\"','"')},getNormalizedState(){let e=Alpine.raw(this.state);return[null,void 0].includes(e)?"":e},destroy(){this.unsubscribeLivewireHook?.()}}}export{a as default};

public/js/filament/tables/components/columns/toggle.js

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+function a({name:r,recordKey:s,state:n}){return{error:void 0,isLoading:!1,state:n,unsubscribeLivewireHook:null,init(){this.unsubscribeLivewireHook=Livewire.interceptMessage(({message:e,onSuccess:t})=>{t(()=>{this.$nextTick(()=>{if(this.isLoading||e.component.id!==this.$root.closest("[wire\\:id]")?.attributes["wire:id"].value)return;let i=this.getServerState();i===void 0||Alpine.raw(this.state)===i||(this.state=i)})})}),this.$watch("state",async()=>{let e=this.getServerState();if(e===void 0||Alpine.raw(this.state)===e)return;this.isLoading=!0;let t=await this.$wire.updateTableColumnState(r,s,this.state);this.error=t?.error??void 0,!this.error&&this.$refs.serverState&&(this.$refs.serverState.value=this.state?"1":"0"),this.isLoading=!1})},getServerState(){if(this.$refs.serverState)return[1,"1"].includes(this.$refs.serverState.value)},destroy(){this.unsubscribeLivewireHook?.()}}}export{a as default};

routes/console.php

@@ -21,3 +21,10 @@ Schedule::command('fuel:poll --full')
     ->withoutOverlapping()
     ->onOneServer()
     ->runInBackground();
+
+// Fetch FRED prices and generate oil price prediction daily at 7am
+Schedule::command('oil:predict --fetch')
+    ->dailyAt('07:00')
+    ->withoutOverlapping()
+    ->onOneServer()
+    ->runInBackground();

tests/Unit/Services/OilPriceServiceTest.php

@@ -0,0 +1,229 @@
+<?php
+
+use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
+use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
+use App\Models\BrentPrice;
+use App\Models\PricePrediction;
+use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use App\Services\OilPriceService;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
+
+uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
+
+beforeEach(function (): void {
+    $this->service = new OilPriceService(new ApiLogger);
+});
+
+// --- fetchBrentPrices ---
+
+it('fetches and stores brent prices from FRED', function (): void {
+    Http::fake([
+        '*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::response([
+            'observations' => [
+                ['date' => '2026-03-31', 'value' => '74.50'],
+                ['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'],
+                ['date' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '73.80'],
+            ],
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $this->service->fetchBrentPrices();
+
+    expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(3)
+        ->and(BrentPrice::find('2026-04-02')->price_usd)->toBe('73.80');
+});
+
+it('filters out FRED missing value markers', function (): void {
+    Http::fake([
+        '*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::response([
+            'observations' => [
+                ['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'],
+                ['date' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '.'],  // weekend/holiday
+                ['date' => '2026-04-03', 'value' => '74.20'],
+            ],
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $this->service->fetchBrentPrices();
+
+    expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(2)
+        ->and(BrentPrice::find('2026-04-02'))->toBeNull();
+});
+
+it('upserts existing brent price rows on refetch', function (): void {
+    Http::fake([
+        '*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::sequence()
+            ->push(['observations' => [['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '74.00']]])
+            ->push(['observations' => [['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.50']]]),
+    ]);
+
+    $this->service->fetchBrentPrices();
+    $this->service->fetchBrentPrices();
+
+    expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(1)
+        ->and(BrentPrice::find('2026-04-01')->price_usd)->toBe('75.50');
+});
+
+// --- generateEwmaPrediction ---
+
+it('detects a rising trend when 3-day EWMA exceeds 7-day EWMA by threshold', function (): void {
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 70.0 + ($i * 2.0),
+    ]));
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
+
+    expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising)
+        ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma)
+        ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBeGreaterThan(0)
+        ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBeLessThanOrEqual(65);
+});
+
+it('detects a falling trend when 3-day EWMA falls below 7-day EWMA by threshold', function (): void {
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 85.0 - ($i * 2.0),
+    ]));
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
+
+    expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling)
+        ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma);
+});
+
+it('returns flat when price movement is within threshold', function (): void {
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 75.0 + (($i % 2 === 0) ? 0.1 : -0.1),
+    ]));
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
+
+    expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Flat)
+        ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(50);
+});
+
+it('returns null when fewer than 14 prices are available', function (): void {
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 10))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(10 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 75.0,
+    ]));
+
+    expect($this->service->generateEwmaPrediction($prices))->toBeNull();
+});
+
+// --- generateLlmPrediction ---
+
+it('generates an LLM prediction and stores it', function (): void {
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 75.0 + $i,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [
+                ['text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":72,"reasoning":"Consistent upward trend over 14 days."}'],
+            ],
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generateLlmPrediction($prices);
+
+    expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising)
+        ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Llm)
+        ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(72)
+        ->and($prediction->reasoning)->toBe('Consistent upward trend over 14 days.');
+});
+
+it('caps LLM confidence at 85', function (): void {
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 75.0,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [
+                ['text' => '{"direction":"falling","confidence":99,"reasoning":"Very confident."}'],
+            ],
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generateLlmPrediction($prices);
+
+    expect($prediction->confidence)->toBe(85);
+});
+
+it('returns null when LLM returns malformed JSON', function (): void {
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 75.0,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [['text' => 'Sorry, I cannot help with that.']],
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    expect($this->service->generateLlmPrediction($prices))->toBeNull();
+});
+
+// --- generatePrediction (orchestrator) ---
+
+it('uses LLM when API key is configured', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    BrentPrice::insert(
+        collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => [
+            'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+            'price_usd' => 75.0 + $i,
+        ])->all()
+    );
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [
+                ['text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":70,"reasoning":"Trend is up."}'],
+            ],
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generatePrediction();
+
+    expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Llm)
+        ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1);
+});
+
+it('falls back to EWMA when LLM fails', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    BrentPrice::insert(
+        collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => [
+            'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+            'price_usd' => 75.0 + ($i * 0.8),
+        ])->all()
+    );
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([], 500),
+    ]);
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generatePrediction();
+
+    expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma)
+        ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1);
+});
+
+it('returns null when there is insufficient price data', function (): void {
+    BrentPrice::insert([
+        ['date' => now()->subDays(2)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0],
+        ['date' => now()->subDay()->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 76.0],
+    ]);
+
+    expect($this->service->generatePrediction())->toBeNull()
+        ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(0);
+});