feat: add generateLlmPredictionWithContext with web search geopolitical context

- New method uses web_search_20260209 server-side tool so Claude fetches
  48h of oil/geopolitical news autonomously before predicting direction
- Prompt uses raw prices only — no pre-computed EWMA indicators
- pause_turn loop handles server-side search continuation (up to 5 iters)
- generatePrediction() now tries context method first, falls back to
  generateLlmPrediction(), then EWMA
- Default model updated to claude-sonnet-4-6

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/Services/OilPriceService.php

@@ -104,7 +104,8 @@ class OilPriceService
         $prediction = null;
 
         if (config('services.anthropic.api_key')) {
-            $prediction = $this->generateLlmPrediction($prices);
+            $prediction = $this->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+            $prediction ??= $this->generateLlmPrediction($prices);
         }
 
         $prediction ??= $this->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
@@ -204,6 +205,104 @@ class OilPriceService
         }
     }
 
+    /**
+     * LLM prediction with 48h geopolitical context via Anthropic web search.
+     * Claude searches for recent oil/geopolitical news before answering.
+     * Reasons from raw prices only — no pre-computed indicators in prompt.
+     */
+    public function generateLlmPredictionWithContext(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
+    {
+        $priceList = $prices->sortBy('date')
+            ->map(fn (BrentPrice $p) => "{$p->date->toDateString()}: \${$p->price_usd}")
+            ->implode("\n");
+
+        $prompt = <<<PROMPT
+            You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
+            Your goal is to predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
+
+            First, search for recent news (last 48 hours) about:
+            - Brent crude oil price movements
+            - OPEC+ production decisions or announcements
+            - Major geopolitical events affecting oil supply (Middle East, Russia, US sanctions)
+            - Global demand signals (China economic data, US inventory reports)
+
+            Then, combining the news context with the price history below, predict the direction.
+
+            Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
+            {$priceList}
+
+            Respond with JSON only, no other text:
+            {"direction": "rising|falling|flat", "confidence": 0-85, "reasoning": "one sentence combining price trend and key news factor"}
+            PROMPT;
+
+        $url = 'https://api.anthropic.com/v1/messages';
+        $messages = [['role' => 'user', 'content' => $prompt]];
+        $response = null;
+
+        try {
+            for ($i = 0; $i < 5; $i++) {
+                $response = $this->apiLogger->send('anthropic', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(30)
+                    ->withHeaders([
+                        'x-api-key' => config('services.anthropic.api_key'),
+                        'anthropic-version' => '2023-06-01',
+                    ])
+                    ->post($url, [
+                        'model' => config('services.anthropic.model', 'claude-sonnet-4-6'),
+                        'max_tokens' => 1024,
+                        'tools' => [['type' => 'web_search_20260209', 'name' => 'web_search']],
+                        'messages' => $messages,
+                    ]));
+
+                if (! $response->successful()) {
+                    Log::error('OilPriceService: Anthropic context request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
+
+                    return null;
+                }
+
+                if ($response->json('stop_reason') !== 'pause_turn') {
+                    break;
+                }
+
+                $messages[] = ['role' => 'assistant', 'content' => $response->json('content')];
+            }
+
+            $text = collect($response->json('content') ?? [])
+                ->firstWhere('type', 'text')['text'] ?? '';
+
+            $text = preg_replace('/^```(?:json)?\s*/m', '', trim($text));
+            $text = preg_replace('/```\s*$/m', '', $text);
+            $data = json_decode(trim($text), true);
+
+            if (! isset($data['direction'], $data['confidence'], $data['reasoning'])) {
+                Log::error('OilPriceService: unexpected context LLM response format', ['text' => $text]);
+
+                return null;
+            }
+
+            $direction = TrendDirection::tryFrom($data['direction']);
+            $confidence = min((int) $data['confidence'], self::LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE);
+
+            if ($direction === null) {
+                Log::error('OilPriceService: invalid direction in context LLM response', ['direction' => $data['direction']]);
+
+                return null;
+            }
+
+            return new PricePrediction([
+                'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
+                'source' => PredictionSource::Llm,
+                'direction' => $direction,
+                'confidence' => $confidence,
+                'reasoning' => $data['reasoning'],
+                'generated_at' => now(),
+            ]);
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            Log::error('OilPriceService: generateLlmPredictionWithContext failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+
+            return null;
+        }
+    }
+
     /**
      * Option A — EWMA-based trend extrapolation. Used as fallback when LLM is unavailable.
      * Compares the 3-day EWMA against the 7-day EWMA to detect direction.

config/services.php

@@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ return [
 
     'anthropic' => [
         'api_key' => env('ANTHROPIC_API_KEY'),
-        'model' => env('ANTHROPIC_MODEL', 'claude-haiku-4-5-20251001'),
+        'model' => env('ANTHROPIC_MODEL', 'claude-sonnet-4-6'),
     ],
 
 ];

tests/Unit/Services/OilPriceServiceTest.php

@@ -227,3 +227,131 @@ it('returns null when there is insufficient price data', function (): void {
     expect($this->service->generatePrediction())->toBeNull()
         ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(0);
 });
+
+// --- generateLlmPredictionWithContext ---
+
+it('generates llm prediction with context using web search and raw prices', function () {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0 + $s->index * 0.5,
+    ])->create();
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [
+                ['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":72,"reasoning":"OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward."}'],
+            ],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+        ], 200),
+    ]);
+
+    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
+    $prediction = app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
+        ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising)
+        ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(72)
+        ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Llm)
+        ->and($prediction->reasoning)->toBe('OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward.');
+
+    Http::assertSentCount(1);
+});
+
+it('sends web_search tool in the context prediction request', function () {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0,
+    ])->create();
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+        ], 200),
+    ]);
+
+    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
+    app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
+        $tools = $request->data()['tools'] ?? [];
+
+        return collect($tools)->contains(fn ($t) => $t['type'] === 'web_search_20260209');
+    });
+});
+
+it('does not include ewma indicators in the context prediction request', function () {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0,
+    ])->create();
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+        ], 200),
+    ]);
+
+    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
+    app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
+        $content = $request->data()['messages'][0]['content'] ?? '';
+
+        return ! str_contains($content, 'EWMA') && ! str_contains($content, 'Pre-computed');
+    });
+});
+
+it('context prediction continues on pause_turn and returns final answer', function () {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0,
+    ])->create();
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
+            ->push([
+                'content' => [['type' => 'server_tool_use', 'id' => 'sttool_1', 'name' => 'web_search', 'input' => ['query' => 'Brent crude news']]],
+                'stop_reason' => 'pause_turn',
+            ], 200)
+            ->push([
+                'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"falling","confidence":60,"reasoning":"Demand fears weigh on prices."}']],
+                'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+            ], 200),
+    ]);
+
+    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
+    $prediction = app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
+        ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling);
+
+    Http::assertSentCount(2);
+});
+
+it('generatePrediction falls through to ewma when both llm methods fail', function () {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0,
+    ])->create();
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([], 500),
+    ]);
+
+    $prediction = app(OilPriceService::class)->generatePrediction();
+
+    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
+        ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma);
+});