prediction with context

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/Enums/FuelType.php

@@ -15,4 +15,17 @@ enum FuelType: string
     {
         return self::from(strtolower($value));
     }
+
+    public static function fromAlias(string $alias): self
+    {
+        return match (strtolower($alias)) {
+            'diesel', 'b7_standard' => self::B7Standard,
+            'premium_diesel', 'b7_premium' => self::B7Premium,
+            'petrol', 'unleaded', 'e10' => self::E10,
+            'premium_unleaded', 'e5' => self::E5,
+            'b10' => self::B10,
+            'hvo' => self::Hvo,
+            default => throw new \ValueError("Unknown fuel type alias: {$alias}"),
+        };
+    }
 }

app/Enums/PredictionSource.php

@@ -5,5 +5,6 @@ namespace App\Enums;
 enum PredictionSource: string
 {
     case Llm = 'llm';
+    case LlmWithContext = 'llm_with_context';
     case Ewma = 'ewma';
 }

app/Filament/Resources/OilPredictionResource.php

@@ -39,9 +39,14 @@ class OilPredictionResource extends Resource
                     ->sortable(),
                 TextColumn::make('source')
                     ->badge()
-                    ->formatStateUsing(fn (PredictionSource $state) => strtoupper($state->value))
+                    ->formatStateUsing(fn (PredictionSource $state) => match ($state) {
+                        PredictionSource::Llm => 'LLM',
+                        PredictionSource::LlmWithContext => 'LLM + Context',
+                        PredictionSource::Ewma => 'EWMA',
+                    })
                     ->color(fn (PredictionSource $state) => match ($state) {
                         PredictionSource::Llm => 'success',
+                        PredictionSource::LlmWithContext => 'warning',
                         PredictionSource::Ewma => 'info',
                     }),
                 TextColumn::make('direction')
@@ -66,6 +71,7 @@ class OilPredictionResource extends Resource
                 SelectFilter::make('source')
                     ->options([
                         PredictionSource::Llm->value => 'LLM',
+                        PredictionSource::LlmWithContext->value => 'LLM + Context',
                         PredictionSource::Ewma->value => 'EWMA',
                     ]),
                 SelectFilter::make('direction')
@@ -97,9 +103,14 @@ class OilPredictionResource extends Resource
                 TextEntry::make('predicted_for')->date('d M Y'),
                 TextEntry::make('source')
                     ->badge()
-                    ->formatStateUsing(fn (PredictionSource $state) => strtoupper($state->value))
+                    ->formatStateUsing(fn (PredictionSource $state) => match ($state) {
+                        PredictionSource::Llm => 'LLM',
+                        PredictionSource::LlmWithContext => 'LLM + Context',
+                        PredictionSource::Ewma => 'EWMA',
+                    })
                     ->color(fn (PredictionSource $state) => match ($state) {
                         PredictionSource::Llm => 'success',
+                        PredictionSource::LlmWithContext => 'warning',
                         PredictionSource::Ewma => 'info',
                     }),
                 TextEntry::make('direction')

app/Http/Controllers/Api/PredictionController.php

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Http\Controllers\Api;
+
+use App\Http\Controllers\Controller;
+use App\Http\Requests\Api\PredictionRequest;
+use App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService;
+use Illuminate\Http\JsonResponse;
+
+class PredictionController extends Controller
+{
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly NationalFuelPredictionService $predictionService,
+    ) {}
+
+    public function index(PredictionRequest $request): JsonResponse
+    {
+        $fuelType = $request->fuelType();
+        $lat = $request->filled('lat') ? (float) $request->input('lat') : null;
+        $lng = $request->filled('lng') ? (float) $request->input('lng') : null;
+
+        $result = $this->predictionService->predict($fuelType, $lat, $lng);
+
+        return response()->json($result);
+    }
+}

app/Http/Controllers/Api/StationController.php

@@ -0,0 +1,72 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Http\Controllers\Api;
+
+use App\Http\Controllers\Controller;
+use App\Http\Requests\Api\NearbyStationsRequest;
+use App\Http\Resources\Api\StationResource;
+use App\Models\Search;
+use App\Models\Station;
+use Illuminate\Database\Query\JoinClause;
+use Illuminate\Http\JsonResponse;
+
+class StationController extends Controller
+{
+    public function index(NearbyStationsRequest $request): JsonResponse
+    {
+        $lat = (float) $request->input('lat');
+        $lng = (float) $request->input('lng');
+        $fuelType = $request->fuelType();
+        $radius = $request->radius();
+        $sort = $request->sort();
+
+        $all = Station::query()
+            ->selectRaw(
+                'stations.*, spc.price_pence, spc.fuel_type, spc.price_effective_at,
+                (6371 * acos(MAX(-1.0, MIN(1.0,
+                    cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?))
+                    + sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))
+                )))) AS distance_km',
+                [$lat, $lng, $lat],
+            )
+            ->join('station_prices_current as spc', function (JoinClause $join) use ($fuelType): void {
+                $join->on('stations.node_id', '=', 'spc.station_id')
+                    ->where('spc.fuel_type', '=', $fuelType->value);
+            })
+            ->where('stations.temporary_closure', false)
+            ->where('stations.permanent_closure', false)
+            ->get();
+
+        $stations = $all
+            ->filter(fn ($s) => (float) $s->distance_km <= $radius)
+            ->sortBy($sort === 'price' ? 'price_pence' : 'distance_km')
+            ->values();
+
+        $prices = $stations->pluck('price_pence');
+
+        Search::create([
+            'lat_bucket' => round($lat, 2),
+            'lng_bucket' => round($lng, 2),
+            'fuel_type' => $fuelType->value,
+            'results_count' => $stations->count(),
+            'lowest_pence' => $prices->min(),
+            'highest_pence' => $prices->max(),
+            'avg_pence' => $prices->isNotEmpty() ? round($prices->avg(), 2) : null,
+            'searched_at' => now(),
+            'ip_hash' => hash('sha256', $request->ip() ?? ''),
+        ]);
+
+        return response()->json([
+            'data' => StationResource::collection($stations),
+            'meta' => [
+                'count' => $stations->count(),
+                'fuel_type' => $fuelType->value,
+                'radius_km' => $radius,
+                'lowest_pence' => $prices->min(),
+                'highest_pence' => $prices->max(),
+                'cheapest_price_pence' => $prices->min(),
+                'avg_pence' => $prices->isNotEmpty() ? round($prices->avg(), 2) : null,
+            ],
+        ]);
+    }
+}

app/Http/Controllers/Api/StatsController.php

@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Http\Controllers\Api;
+
+use App\Http\Controllers\Controller;
+use App\Models\Search;
+use Illuminate\Http\JsonResponse;
+use Illuminate\Http\Request;
+
+class StatsController extends Controller
+{
+    public function searches(Request $request): JsonResponse
+    {
+        $period = $request->input('period', 'week');
+        $days = $period === 'month' ? 30 : 7;
+
+        $stats = Search::query()
+            ->where('searched_at', '>=', now()->subDays($days))
+            ->selectRaw('
+                COUNT(*) as total_searches,
+                COUNT(DISTINCT ip_hash) as unique_searchers,
+                AVG(results_count) as avg_results,
+                AVG(lowest_pence) as avg_lowest_pence,
+                AVG(highest_pence) as avg_highest_pence,
+                AVG(avg_pence) as avg_avg_pence
+            ')
+            ->first();
+
+        $totalSearches = (int) $stats->total_searches;
+        $uniqueSearchers = (int) $stats->unique_searchers;
+        $avgResults = $stats->avg_results !== null ? round((float) $stats->avg_results, 1) : 0.0;
+        $avgLowestPrice = $stats->avg_lowest_pence !== null ? round((float) $stats->avg_lowest_pence / 100, 1) : 0.0;
+        $avgHighestPrice = $stats->avg_highest_pence !== null ? round((float) $stats->avg_highest_pence / 100, 1) : 0.0;
+        $avgPrice = $stats->avg_avg_pence !== null ? round((float) $stats->avg_avg_pence / 100, 1) : 0.0;
+
+        $periodLabel = $period === 'month' ? 'month' : 'week';
+
+        return response()->json([
+            'total_searches' => $totalSearches,
+            'unique_searchers' => $uniqueSearchers,
+            'avg_results' => $avgResults,
+            'avg_lowest_price' => $avgLowestPrice,
+            'avg_highest_price' => $avgHighestPrice,
+            'avg_price' => $avgPrice,
+            'period' => $periodLabel,
+            'message' => "Helped {$uniqueSearchers} drivers find cheaper fuel this {$periodLabel} so far!",
+        ]);
+    }
+}

app/Http/Requests/Api/NearbyStationsRequest.php

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Http\Requests\Api;
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Http\FormRequest;
+
+class NearbyStationsRequest extends FormRequest
+{
+    public function authorize(): bool
+    {
+        return true;
+    }
+
+    public function rules(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'lat' => ['required', 'numeric', 'between:-90,90'],
+            'lng' => ['required', 'numeric', 'between:-180,180'],
+            'fuel_type' => ['required', 'string'],
+            'radius' => ['nullable', 'numeric', 'between:0.1,50'],
+            'sort' => ['nullable', 'string', 'in:price,distance'],
+            'pricing_mode' => ['nullable', 'string', 'in:pump'],
+        ];
+    }
+
+    public function fuelType(): FuelType
+    {
+        return FuelType::fromAlias($this->string('fuel_type')->toString());
+    }
+
+    public function radius(): float
+    {
+        return (float) $this->input('radius', 10.0);
+    }
+
+    public function sort(): string
+    {
+        return $this->input('sort', 'price');
+    }
+}

app/Http/Requests/Api/PredictionRequest.php

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Http\Requests\Api;
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Http\FormRequest;
+use Illuminate\Validation\ValidationException;
+
+class PredictionRequest extends FormRequest
+{
+    public function authorize(): bool
+    {
+        return true;
+    }
+
+    public function rules(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'fuel_type' => ['required', 'string'],
+            'lat' => ['nullable', 'numeric', 'between:-90,90'],
+            'lng' => ['nullable', 'numeric', 'between:-180,180'],
+        ];
+    }
+
+    public function fuelType(): FuelType
+    {
+        try {
+            return FuelType::fromAlias($this->string('fuel_type')->toString());
+        } catch (\ValueError) {
+            throw ValidationException::withMessages(['fuel_type' => 'Unknown fuel type. Use: diesel, petrol, e10, e5, hvo, b10.']);
+        }
+    }
+}

app/Http/Resources/Api/StationResource.php

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Http\Resources\Api;
+
+use Illuminate\Http\Request;
+use Illuminate\Http\Resources\Json\JsonResource;
+use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
+
+class StationResource extends JsonResource
+{
+    public function toArray(Request $request): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'station_id' => $this->node_id,
+            'name' => $this->trading_name,
+            'brand' => $this->brand_name,
+            'is_supermarket' => (bool) $this->is_supermarket,
+            'address' => implode(', ', array_filter([$this->address_line_1, $this->city])),
+            'postcode' => $this->postcode,
+            'lat' => (float) $this->lat,
+            'lng' => (float) $this->lng,
+            'distance_km' => round((float) $this->distance_km, 2),
+            'fuel_type' => $this->fuel_type,
+            'price_pence' => (int) $this->price_pence,
+            'price' => round((int) $this->price_pence / 100, 2),
+            'price_updated_at' => $this->price_effective_at
+                ? Carbon::parse($this->price_effective_at)->toISOString()
+                : null,
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Models/Search.php

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Models;
+
+use Database\Factories\SearchFactory;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Fillable;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\HasFactory;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
+
+#[Fillable(['lat_bucket', 'lng_bucket', 'fuel_type', 'results_count', 'lowest_pence', 'highest_pence', 'avg_pence', 'searched_at', 'ip_hash'])]
+class Search extends Model
+{
+    /** @use HasFactory<SearchFactory> */
+    use HasFactory;
+
+    public $timestamps = false;
+
+    protected function casts(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'searched_at' => 'datetime',
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php

@@ -0,0 +1,489 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services;
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+use App\Models\StationPriceCurrent;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+class NationalFuelPredictionService
+{
+    private const float R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD = 0.5;
+
+    private const float SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE = 0.3;
+
+    private const int PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS = 7;
+
+    /**
+     * @return array{
+     *     fuel_type: string,
+     *     current_avg: float,
+     *     predicted_direction: string,
+     *     predicted_change_pence: float,
+     *     confidence_score: float,
+     *     confidence_label: string,
+     *     action: string,
+     *     reasoning: string,
+     *     prediction_horizon_days: int,
+     *     region_key: string,
+     *     methodology: string,
+     *     signals: array
+     * }
+     */
+    public function predict(FuelType $fuelType, ?float $lat = null, ?float $lng = null): array
+    {
+        $currentAvg = $this->getCurrentNationalAverage($fuelType);
+        $trend = $this->computeTrendSignal($fuelType);
+        $dayOfWeek = $this->computeDayOfWeekSignal($fuelType);
+        $brandBehaviour = $this->computeBrandBehaviourSignal($fuelType);
+        $stickiness = $this->computeStickinessSignal($fuelType);
+
+        $nationalMomentum = $this->disabledSignal('National momentum disabled for national predictions');
+        $regionalMomentum = $lat !== null && $lng !== null
+            ? $this->computeRegionalMomentumSignal($fuelType, $lat, $lng)
+            : $this->disabledSignal('No coordinates provided for regional momentum analysis');
+
+        $signals = compact('trend', 'dayOfWeek', 'brandBehaviour', 'nationalMomentum', 'regionalMomentum', 'stickiness');
+
+        [$direction, $confidenceScore] = $this->aggregateSignals($signals);
+
+        $slope = $trend['slope'] ?? 0.0;
+        $predictedChangePence = round($slope * self::PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS, 1);
+
+        $confidenceLabel = match (true) {
+            $confidenceScore >= 70 => 'high',
+            $confidenceScore >= 40 => 'medium',
+            default => 'low',
+        };
+
+        $action = match ($direction) {
+            'up' => 'fill_now',
+            'down' => 'wait',
+            default => 'no_signal',
+        };
+
+        return [
+            'fuel_type' => $fuelType->value,
+            'current_avg' => $currentAvg,
+            'predicted_direction' => $direction,
+            'predicted_change_pence' => $predictedChangePence,
+            'confidence_score' => $confidenceScore,
+            'confidence_label' => $confidenceLabel,
+            'action' => $action,
+            'reasoning' => $this->buildReasoning($direction, $slope, $trend, $brandBehaviour),
+            'prediction_horizon_days' => self::PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS,
+            'region_key' => 'national',
+            'methodology' => 'multi_signal_live_fallback',
+            'signals' => [
+                'trend' => $trend,
+                'day_of_week' => $dayOfWeek,
+                'brand_behaviour' => $brandBehaviour,
+                'national_momentum' => $nationalMomentum,
+                'regional_momentum' => $regionalMomentum,
+                'price_stickiness' => $stickiness,
+            ],
+        ];
+    }
+
+    private function getCurrentNationalAverage(FuelType $fuelType): float
+    {
+        $avg = StationPriceCurrent::where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)->avg('price_pence');
+
+        return $avg !== null ? round((float) $avg / 100, 1) : 0.0;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Linear regression on daily national average prices.
+     * Tries 5-day lookback first; falls back to 14-day if R² < threshold.
+     *
+     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool, slope: float, r_squared: float}
+     */
+    private function computeTrendSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
+    {
+        foreach ([5, 14] as $lookbackDays) {
+            $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+                ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
+                ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays($lookbackDays))
+                ->selectRaw('DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price')
+                ->groupBy('day')
+                ->orderBy('day')
+                ->get();
+
+            if ($rows->count() < 2) {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            $regression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v)->values()->all());
+
+            if ($regression['r_squared'] >= self::R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD) {
+                $slope = $regression['slope'];
+                $direction = match (true) {
+                    $slope >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
+                    $slope <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
+                    default => 'stable',
+                };
+                $absSlope = abs($slope);
+                $score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : min(1.0, $absSlope / 2.0) * ($slope > 0 ? 1 : -1);
+                $projected = round($slope * $lookbackDays, 1);
+                $detail = $direction === 'stable'
+                    ? "Prices flat over {$lookbackDays} days (slope: {$slope}p/day, R²={$regression['r_squared']})"
+                    : sprintf(
+                        '%s at %sp/day over %d days (R²=%s, ~%s%sp in %dd)',
+                        $slope > 0 ? 'Rising' : 'Falling',
+                        abs(round($slope, 2)),
+                        $lookbackDays,
+                        round($regression['r_squared'], 2),
+                        $projected > 0 ? '+' : '',
+                        $projected,
+                        self::PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS,
+                    );
+
+                if ($lookbackDays === 5) {
+                    $detail .= ' [Adaptive lookback active]';
+                }
+
+                return [
+                    'score' => $score,
+                    'confidence' => min(1.0, $regression['r_squared']),
+                    'direction' => $direction,
+                    'detail' => $detail,
+                    'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+                    'enabled' => true,
+                    'slope' => round($slope, 3),
+                    'r_squared' => round($regression['r_squared'], 3),
+                ];
+            }
+        }
+
+        return [
+            'score' => 0.0,
+            'confidence' => 0.0,
+            'direction' => 'stable',
+            'detail' => 'Insufficient price history or noisy data (R² below threshold)',
+            'data_points' => 0,
+            'enabled' => false,
+            'slope' => 0.0,
+            'r_squared' => 0.0,
+        ];
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Compare today's average price against the per-weekday average over 90 days.
+     * Requires 56+ days of history to activate.
+     *
+     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
+     */
+    private function computeDayOfWeekSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
+    {
+        $isSqlite = DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite';
+        $dowExpr = $isSqlite
+            ? "(CAST(strftime('%w', price_effective_at) AS INTEGER) + 1)"
+            : 'DAYOFWEEK(price_effective_at)';
+
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
+            ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(90))
+            ->selectRaw("{$dowExpr} as dow, DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price")
+            ->groupBy('dow', 'day')
+            ->get();
+
+        $uniqueDays = $rows->pluck('day')->unique()->count();
+
+        if ($uniqueDays < 56) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal("Insufficient history for day-of-week pattern ({$uniqueDays} days, need 56)");
+        }
+
+        $dowAverages = $rows->groupBy('dow')->map(fn ($g) => $g->avg('avg_price'));
+        $weekAvg = $dowAverages->avg();
+        $todayDow = (int) now()->format('w') + 1; // PHP 0=Sun → MySQL 1=Sun
+        $todayAvg = $dowAverages->get($todayDow, $weekAvg);
+        $cheapestDow = $dowAverages->keys()->sortBy(fn ($k) => $dowAverages[$k])->first();
+        $dayNames = ['Sun', 'Mon', 'Tue', 'Wed', 'Thu', 'Fri', 'Sat'];
+        $cheapestDayName = $dayNames[($cheapestDow - 1) % 7] ?? 'Unknown';
+        $weekRange = round(($dowAverages->max() - $dowAverages->min()) / 100, 1);
+        $tomorrowDelta = round(($dowAverages->get(($todayDow % 7) + 1, $weekAvg) - $todayAvg) / 100, 1);
+
+        $direction = match (true) {
+            ($todayAvg - $weekAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'up',
+            ($weekAvg - $todayAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'down',
+            default => 'stable',
+        };
+
+        $score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0);
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $score,
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $uniqueDays / 90),
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => "Cheapest day: {$cheapestDayName}. Weekly range: {$weekRange}p. Tomorrow typically {$tomorrowDelta}p less than today.",
+            'data_points' => $uniqueDays,
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Compare supermarket vs non-supermarket 7-day price trend.
+     * Detects divergence where one group has moved but the other hasn't yet.
+     *
+     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
+     */
+    private function computeBrandBehaviourSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
+    {
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
+            ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
+            ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(7))
+            ->selectRaw('stations.is_supermarket, DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
+            ->groupBy('stations.is_supermarket', 'day')
+            ->orderBy('day')
+            ->get();
+
+        $supermarket = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 1)->values();
+        $major = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 0)->values();
+
+        if ($supermarket->count() < 2 || $major->count() < 2) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient brand data for comparison');
+        }
+
+        $supermarketSlope = $this->linearRegression($supermarket->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v)->values()->all())['slope'];
+        $majorSlope = $this->linearRegression($major->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v)->values()->all())['slope'];
+
+        $divergence = round(abs($supermarketSlope - $majorSlope) * 7, 1);
+        $supermarketChange = round($supermarketSlope * 7, 1);
+        $majorChange = round($majorSlope * 7, 1);
+
+        if ($divergence < 1.0) {
+            return [
+                'score' => 0.0,
+                'confidence' => 0.5,
+                'direction' => 'stable',
+                'detail' => 'Supermarkets and majors moving in sync.',
+                'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+                'enabled' => true,
+            ];
+        }
+
+        $leaderChange = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? $supermarketChange : $majorChange;
+        $direction = $leaderChange > 0 ? 'up' : 'down';
+        $leader = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? 'Supermarkets' : 'Majors';
+        $follower = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? 'majors' : 'supermarkets';
+        $leaderAbs = abs($leaderChange);
+        $followerChange = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? abs($majorChange) : abs($supermarketChange);
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0,
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $divergence / 5.0),
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => "{$leader} ".($leaderChange > 0 ? 'rose' : 'fell')." {$leaderAbs}p vs {$follower} {$followerChange}p (divergence: {$divergence}p). Expect {$follower} to follow.",
+            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Average hold duration (days between price changes) as a confidence modifier.
+     * Requires 30+ days of history. Returns a score between -0.1 and +0.1.
+     *
+     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
+     */
+    private function computeStickinessSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
+    {
+        $isSqlite = DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite';
+        $diffExpr = $isSqlite
+            ? 'CAST((julianday(MAX(price_effective_at)) - julianday(MIN(price_effective_at))) AS INTEGER)'
+            : 'DATEDIFF(MAX(price_effective_at), MIN(price_effective_at))';
+
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
+            ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(30))
+            ->selectRaw("station_id, COUNT(*) as changes, {$diffExpr} as span_days")
+            ->groupBy('station_id')
+            ->having('changes', '>', 1)
+            ->having('span_days', '>', 0)
+            ->get();
+
+        if ($rows->count() < 10) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient stickiness data (need 10+ stations with price history)');
+        }
+
+        $avgHoldDays = $rows->avg(fn ($r) => $r->span_days / ($r->changes - 1));
+        $avgHoldDays = round((float) $avgHoldDays, 1);
+
+        $score = match (true) {
+            $avgHoldDays < 2 => -0.1,
+            $avgHoldDays > 5 => 0.1,
+            default => 0.0,
+        };
+
+        $detail = match (true) {
+            $avgHoldDays < 2 => "Volatile prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — harder to predict.",
+            $avgHoldDays > 5 => "Sticky prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — more predictable.",
+            default => "Normal hold period (avg: {$avgHoldDays} days).",
+        };
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $score,
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $rows->count() / 200),
+            'direction' => 'stable',
+            'detail' => $detail,
+            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Placeholder for regional momentum signal (requires lat/lng).
+     * Compares local station prices vs national average trend.
+     *
+     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
+     */
+    private function computeRegionalMomentumSignal(FuelType $fuelType, float $lat, float $lng): array
+    {
+        // Regional momentum: compare trend of stations within 50km vs national trend
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
+            ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
+            ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(14))
+            ->whereRaw('(6371 * acos(CASE WHEN (cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?)) + sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))) > 1.0 THEN 1.0 ELSE (cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?)) + sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))) END)) <= 50', [$lat, $lng, $lat, $lat, $lng, $lat])
+            ->selectRaw('DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
+            ->groupBy('day')
+            ->orderBy('day')
+            ->get();
+
+        if ($rows->count() < 3) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient regional data');
+        }
+
+        $regionalRegression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v)->values()->all());
+        $direction = match (true) {
+            $regionalRegression['slope'] >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
+            $regionalRegression['slope'] <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
+            default => 'stable',
+        };
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 0.7 : -0.7),
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $regionalRegression['r_squared']),
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => 'Regional trend: '.round($regionalRegression['slope'], 2).'p/day (R²='.round($regionalRegression['r_squared'], 2).')',
+            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+
+    /** @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool} */
+    private function disabledSignal(string $detail): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'score' => 0.0,
+            'confidence' => 0.0,
+            'direction' => 'stable',
+            'detail' => $detail,
+            'data_points' => 0,
+            'enabled' => false,
+        ];
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Weighted aggregate of enabled signals.
+     * Returns [direction string, confidence score 0-100].
+     *
+     * @param  array<string, array{score: float, confidence: float, enabled: bool}>  $signals
+     * @return array{0: string, 1: float}
+     */
+    private function aggregateSignals(array $signals): array
+    {
+        $weights = [
+            'trend' => 0.45,
+            'dayOfWeek' => 0.20,
+            'brandBehaviour' => 0.25,
+            'stickiness' => 0.10,
+        ];
+
+        $weightedSum = 0.0;
+        $totalWeight = 0.0;
+
+        foreach ($weights as $key => $weight) {
+            $signal = $signals[$key] ?? null;
+            if ($signal && $signal['enabled']) {
+                $weightedSum += $signal['score'] * $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
+                $totalWeight += $weight;
+            }
+        }
+
+        if ($totalWeight < 0.01) {
+            return ['stable', 0.0];
+        }
+
+        $normalised = $weightedSum / $totalWeight;
+        $confidenceScore = round(min(100.0, abs($normalised) * 100), 1);
+
+        $direction = match (true) {
+            $normalised >= 0.1 => 'up',
+            $normalised <= -0.1 => 'down',
+            default => 'stable',
+        };
+
+        return [$direction, $confidenceScore];
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Least-squares linear regression.
+     * x is the array index (day number), y is the price value.
+     *
+     * @param  float[]  $values
+     * @return array{slope: float, r_squared: float}
+     */
+    private function linearRegression(array $values): array
+    {
+        $n = count($values);
+        if ($n < 2) {
+            return ['slope' => 0.0, 'r_squared' => 0.0];
+        }
+
+        $xMean = ($n - 1) / 2.0;
+        $yMean = array_sum($values) / $n;
+
+        $numerator = 0.0;
+        $denominator = 0.0;
+
+        foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
+            $x = $i - $xMean;
+            $numerator += $x * ($y - $yMean);
+            $denominator += $x * $x;
+        }
+
+        $slope = $denominator > 0.0 ? $numerator / $denominator : 0.0;
+
+        $ssRes = 0.0;
+        $ssTot = 0.0;
+        foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
+            $predicted = $yMean + $slope * ($i - $xMean);
+            $ssRes += ($y - $predicted) ** 2;
+            $ssTot += ($y - $yMean) ** 2;
+        }
+
+        $rSquared = $ssTot > 0.0 ? max(0.0, 1.0 - ($ssRes / $ssTot)) : 0.0;
+
+        return ['slope' => $slope, 'r_squared' => $rSquared];
+    }
+
+    private function buildReasoning(string $direction, float $slope, array $trend, array $brandBehaviour): string
+    {
+        $parts = [];
+
+        if ($trend['enabled'] && abs($slope) >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE) {
+            $parts[] = $trend['detail'];
+        }
+
+        if ($brandBehaviour['enabled'] && $brandBehaviour['direction'] !== 'stable') {
+            $parts[] = $brandBehaviour['detail'];
+        }
+
+        if (empty($parts)) {
+            return 'No clear pattern — fill up at the cheapest station near you now.';
+        }
+
+        return implode(' ', $parts);
+    }
+}

app/Services/OilPriceService.php

@@ -290,7 +290,7 @@ class OilPriceService
 
             return new PricePrediction([
                 'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
-                'source' => PredictionSource::Llm,
+                'source' => PredictionSource::LlmWithContext,
                 'direction' => $direction,
                 'confidence' => $confidence,
                 'reasoning' => $data['reasoning'],

bootstrap/app.php

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ use Illuminate\Foundation\Configuration\Middleware;
 return Application::configure(basePath: dirname(__DIR__))
     ->withRouting(
         web: __DIR__.'/../routes/web.php',
+        api: __DIR__.'/../routes/api.php',
         commands: __DIR__.'/../routes/console.php',
         health: '/up',
     )

composer.json

@@ -6,10 +6,11 @@
     "keywords": ["laravel", "framework"],
     "license": "MIT",
     "require": {
-        "php": "^8.3",
+        "php": "^8.4",
         "filament/filament": "^5.0",
         "laravel/fortify": "^1.34",
         "laravel/framework": "^13.0",
+        "laravel/sanctum": "^4.0",
         "laravel/tinker": "^3.0",
         "livewire/flux": "^2.12.0",
         "livewire/livewire": "^4.1"

composer.lock

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
         "Read more about it at https://getcomposer.org/doc/01-basic-usage.md#installing-dependencies",
         "This file is @generated automatically"
     ],
-    "content-hash": "7279d4f0e10b9575237a7b483de6d09e",
+    "content-hash": "017a8badf2a8b99d8c2de9909475415f",
     "packages": [
         {
             "name": "bacon/bacon-qr-code",
@@ -2468,6 +2468,69 @@
             },
             "time": "2026-03-23T14:35:33+00:00"
         },
+        {
+            "name": "laravel/sanctum",
+            "version": "v4.3.1",
+            "source": {
+                "type": "git",
+                "url": "https://github.com/laravel/sanctum.git",
+                "reference": "e3b85d6e36ad00e5db2d1dcc27c81ffdf15cbf76"
+            },
+            "dist": {
+                "type": "zip",
+                "url": "https://api.github.com/repos/laravel/sanctum/zipball/e3b85d6e36ad00e5db2d1dcc27c81ffdf15cbf76",
+                "reference": "e3b85d6e36ad00e5db2d1dcc27c81ffdf15cbf76",
+                "shasum": ""
+            },
+            "require": {
+                "ext-json": "*",
+                "illuminate/console": "^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/contracts": "^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/database": "^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/support": "^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "php": "^8.2",
+                "symfony/console": "^7.0|^8.0"
+            },
+            "require-dev": {
+                "mockery/mockery": "^1.6",
+                "orchestra/testbench": "^9.15|^10.8|^11.0",
+                "phpstan/phpstan": "^1.10"
+            },
+            "type": "library",
+            "extra": {
+                "laravel": {
+                    "providers": [
+                        "Laravel\\Sanctum\\SanctumServiceProvider"
+                    ]
+                }
+            },
+            "autoload": {
+                "psr-4": {
+                    "Laravel\\Sanctum\\": "src/"
+                }
+            },
+            "notification-url": "https://packagist.org/downloads/",
+            "license": [
+                "MIT"
+            ],
+            "authors": [
+                {
+                    "name": "Taylor Otwell",
+                    "email": "taylor@laravel.com"
+                }
+            ],
+            "description": "Laravel Sanctum provides a featherweight authentication system for SPAs and simple APIs.",
+            "keywords": [
+                "auth",
+                "laravel",
+                "sanctum"
+            ],
+            "support": {
+                "issues": "https://github.com/laravel/sanctum/issues",
+                "source": "https://github.com/laravel/sanctum"
+            },
+            "time": "2026-02-07T17:19:31+00:00"
+        },
         {
             "name": "laravel/serializable-closure",
             "version": "v2.0.10",

config/sanctum.php

@@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
+<?php
+
+use Illuminate\Cookie\Middleware\EncryptCookies;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Http\Middleware\ValidateCsrfToken;
+use Laravel\Sanctum\Http\Middleware\AuthenticateSession;
+use Laravel\Sanctum\Sanctum;
+
+return [
+
+    /*
+    |--------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    | Stateful Domains
+    |--------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    |
+    | Requests from the following domains / hosts will receive stateful API
+    | authentication cookies. Typically, these should include your local
+    | and production domains which access your API via a frontend SPA.
+    |
+    */
+
+    'stateful' => explode(',', env('SANCTUM_STATEFUL_DOMAINS', sprintf(
+        '%s%s',
+        'localhost,localhost:3000,127.0.0.1,127.0.0.1:8000,::1',
+        Sanctum::currentApplicationUrlWithPort(),
+        // Sanctum::currentRequestHost(),
+    ))),
+
+    /*
+    |--------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    | Sanctum Guards
+    |--------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    |
+    | This array contains the authentication guards that will be checked when
+    | Sanctum is trying to authenticate a request. If none of these guards
+    | are able to authenticate the request, Sanctum will use the bearer
+    | token that's present on an incoming request for authentication.
+    |
+    */
+
+    'guard' => ['web'],
+
+    /*
+    |--------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    | Expiration Minutes
+    |--------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    |
+    | This value controls the number of minutes until an issued token will be
+    | considered expired. This will override any values set in the token's
+    | "expires_at" attribute, but first-party sessions are not affected.
+    |
+    */
+
+    'expiration' => null,
+
+    /*
+    |--------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    | Token Prefix
+    |--------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    |
+    | Sanctum can prefix new tokens in order to take advantage of numerous
+    | security scanning initiatives maintained by open source platforms
+    | that notify developers if they commit tokens into repositories.
+    |
+    | See: https://docs.github.com/en/code-security/secret-scanning/about-secret-scanning
+    |
+    */
+
+    'token_prefix' => env('SANCTUM_TOKEN_PREFIX', ''),
+
+    /*
+    |--------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    | Sanctum Middleware
+    |--------------------------------------------------------------------------
+    |
+    | When authenticating your first-party SPA with Sanctum you may need to
+    | customize some of the middleware Sanctum uses while processing the
+    | request. You may change the middleware listed below as required.
+    |
+    */
+
+    'middleware' => [
+        'authenticate_session' => AuthenticateSession::class,
+        'encrypt_cookies' => EncryptCookies::class,
+        'validate_csrf_token' => ValidateCsrfToken::class,
+    ],
+
+];

database/factories/SearchFactory.php

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace Database\Factories;
+
+use App\Models\Search;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\Factory;
+
+/** @extends Factory<Search> */
+class SearchFactory extends Factory
+{
+    public function definition(): array
+    {
+        $lowest = fake()->numberBetween(12000, 15000);
+        $highest = $lowest + fake()->numberBetween(100, 3000);
+
+        return [
+            'lat_bucket' => round(fake()->latitude(49.9, 60.9), 2),
+            'lng_bucket' => round(fake()->longitude(-8.2, 1.8), 2),
+            'fuel_type' => fake()->randomElement(['b7_standard', 'e10', 'e5']),
+            'results_count' => fake()->numberBetween(5, 100),
+            'lowest_pence' => $lowest,
+            'highest_pence' => $highest,
+            'avg_pence' => round(($lowest + $highest) / 2, 2),
+            'searched_at' => now(),
+            'ip_hash' => hash('sha256', fake()->ipv4()),
+        ];
+    }
+}

database/migrations/2026_04_04_115852_create_price_predictions_table.php

@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ return new class extends Migration
         Schema::create('price_predictions', function (Blueprint $table) {
             $table->id();
             $table->date('predicted_for')->comment('The date this prediction covers');
-            $table->enum('source', ['llm', 'ewma']);
+            $table->enum('source', ['llm', 'llm_with_context', 'ewma']);
             $table->enum('direction', ['rising', 'falling', 'flat']);
             $table->tinyInteger('confidence')->unsigned()->comment('0–100 confidence score');
             $table->text('reasoning')->nullable()->comment('LLM explanation or EWMA summary');

database/migrations/2026_04_04_180819_create_searches_table.php

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+<?php
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Migrations\Migration;
+use Illuminate\Database\Schema\Blueprint;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schema;
+
+return new class extends Migration
+{
+    public function up(): void
+    {
+        Schema::create('searches', function (Blueprint $table): void {
+            $table->bigIncrements('id');
+            $table->decimal('lat_bucket', 5, 2)->comment('Latitude rounded to 2dp (~1km precision) for privacy');
+            $table->decimal('lng_bucket', 5, 2)->comment('Longitude rounded to 2dp for privacy');
+            $table->string('fuel_type', 20);
+            $table->unsignedSmallInteger('results_count');
+            $table->unsignedSmallInteger('lowest_pence')->nullable()->comment('Cheapest price found in pence × 100');
+            $table->unsignedSmallInteger('highest_pence')->nullable()->comment('Most expensive price found in pence × 100');
+            $table->decimal('avg_pence', 8, 2)->nullable()->comment('Mean price across results in pence × 100');
+            $table->dateTime('searched_at');
+            $table->string('ip_hash', 64)->comment('SHA-256 of requester IP — non-reversible, for unique count only');
+
+            $table->index(['searched_at', 'fuel_type']);
+            $table->index('ip_hash');
+        });
+    }
+
+    public function down(): void
+    {
+        Schema::dropIfExists('searches');
+    }
+};

database/migrations/2026_04_04_180849_create_personal_access_tokens_table.php

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+<?php
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Migrations\Migration;
+use Illuminate\Database\Schema\Blueprint;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schema;
+
+return new class extends Migration
+{
+    /**
+     * Run the migrations.
+     */
+    public function up(): void
+    {
+        Schema::create('personal_access_tokens', function (Blueprint $table) {
+            $table->id();
+            $table->morphs('tokenable');
+            $table->text('name');
+            $table->string('token', 64)->unique();
+            $table->text('abilities')->nullable();
+            $table->timestamp('last_used_at')->nullable();
+            $table->timestamp('expires_at')->nullable()->index();
+            $table->timestamps();
+        });
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Reverse the migrations.
+     */
+    public function down(): void
+    {
+        Schema::dropIfExists('personal_access_tokens');
+    }
+};

database/migrations/2026_04_04_184147_add_llm_with_context_to_price_predictions_source.php

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+<?php
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Migrations\Migration;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+return new class extends Migration
+{
+    public function up(): void
+    {
+        if (DB::getDriverName() !== 'sqlite') {
+            DB::statement("ALTER TABLE price_predictions MODIFY COLUMN source ENUM('llm', 'llm_with_context', 'ewma') NOT NULL");
+        }
+    }
+
+    public function down(): void
+    {
+        if (DB::getDriverName() !== 'sqlite') {
+            DB::statement("ALTER TABLE price_predictions MODIFY COLUMN source ENUM('llm', 'ewma') NOT NULL");
+        }
+    }
+};

routes/api.php

@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+<?php
+
+use App\Http\Controllers\Api\AuthController;
+use App\Http\Controllers\Api\PredictionController;
+use App\Http\Controllers\Api\StationController;
+use App\Http\Controllers\Api\StatsController;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Route;
+
+Route::get('/stations', [StationController::class, 'index']);
+Route::get('/stats/searches', [StatsController::class, 'searches']);
+Route::get('/prediction', [PredictionController::class, 'index']);
+
+Route::prefix('auth')->group(function (): void {
+    Route::post('/register', [AuthController::class, 'register']);
+    Route::post('/login', [AuthController::class, 'login']);
+    Route::middleware('auth:sanctum')->group(function (): void {
+        Route::post('/logout', [AuthController::class, 'logout']);
+        Route::get('/me', [AuthController::class, 'me']);
+    });
+});

tests/Feature/Api/PredictionControllerTest.php

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+<?php
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+use App\Models\Station;
+use App\Models\StationPriceCurrent;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
+
+uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
+
+it('returns a prediction response for diesel', function () {
+    $this->getJson('/api/prediction?fuel_type=diesel')
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertJsonStructure([
+            'fuel_type', 'current_avg', 'predicted_direction', 'predicted_change_pence',
+            'confidence_score', 'confidence_label', 'action', 'reasoning',
+            'prediction_horizon_days', 'region_key', 'methodology',
+            'signals' => [
+                'trend' => ['score', 'confidence', 'direction', 'detail', 'data_points', 'enabled'],
+                'day_of_week' => ['score', 'confidence', 'direction', 'detail', 'data_points', 'enabled'],
+                'brand_behaviour' => ['score', 'confidence', 'direction', 'detail', 'data_points', 'enabled'],
+                'national_momentum' => ['score', 'confidence', 'direction', 'detail', 'data_points', 'enabled'],
+                'regional_momentum' => ['score', 'confidence', 'direction', 'detail', 'data_points', 'enabled'],
+                'price_stickiness' => ['score', 'confidence', 'direction', 'detail', 'data_points', 'enabled'],
+            ],
+        ])
+        ->assertJsonPath('fuel_type', 'b7_standard')
+        ->assertJsonPath('region_key', 'national');
+});
+
+it('includes current average from live prices', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create();
+    StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create([
+        'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+        'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard,
+        'price_pence' => 14750,
+    ]);
+
+    $response = $this->getJson('/api/prediction?fuel_type=diesel')->assertOk();
+
+    expect($response->json('current_avg'))->toBe(147.5);
+});
+
+it('accepts optional lat and lng for regional context', function () {
+    $this->getJson('/api/prediction?fuel_type=diesel&lat=52.5&lng=-0.2')
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertJsonPath('region_key', 'national'); // still national, regional_momentum signal updated internally
+});
+
+it('returns 422 when fuel_type is missing', function () {
+    $this->getJson('/api/prediction')
+        ->assertUnprocessable()
+        ->assertJsonValidationErrors(['fuel_type']);
+});
+
+it('returns 422 for unknown fuel_type alias', function () {
+    $this->getJson('/api/prediction?fuel_type=rocket_fuel')
+        ->assertUnprocessable()
+        ->assertJsonValidationErrors(['fuel_type']);
+});

tests/Feature/Api/StationControllerTest.php

@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+<?php
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+use App\Models\Station;
+use App\Models\StationPriceCurrent;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
+
+uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
+
+it('returns stations near coordinates filtered by fuel type', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create(['lat' => 52.555064, 'lng' => -0.256119]);
+    StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create([
+        'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+        'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard,
+        'price_pence' => 14500,
+    ]);
+
+    $this->getJson('/api/stations?lat=52.555064&lng=-0.256119&fuel_type=diesel&radius=10&sort=price')
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertJsonStructure([
+            'data' => [['station_id', 'name', 'brand', 'is_supermarket', 'lat', 'lng', 'distance_km', 'fuel_type', 'price_pence', 'price', 'price_updated_at']],
+            'meta' => ['count', 'fuel_type', 'radius_km', 'lowest_pence'],
+        ])
+        ->assertJsonPath('data.0.price_pence', 14500)
+        ->assertJsonPath('meta.fuel_type', 'b7_standard');
+});
+
+it('excludes stations with no matching fuel type', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create(['lat' => 52.555064, 'lng' => -0.256119]);
+    StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create([
+        'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+        'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10, // not diesel
+        'price_pence' => 13800,
+    ]);
+
+    $this->getJson('/api/stations?lat=52.555064&lng=-0.256119&fuel_type=diesel&radius=10')
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertJsonPath('meta.count', 0);
+});
+
+it('excludes temporarily closed stations', function () {
+    $closed = Station::factory()->create([
+        'lat' => 52.555064, 'lng' => -0.256119,
+        'temporary_closure' => true,
+    ]);
+    StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create([
+        'station_id' => $closed->node_id,
+        'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard,
+        'price_pence' => 14200,
+    ]);
+
+    $this->getJson('/api/stations?lat=52.555064&lng=-0.256119&fuel_type=diesel&radius=10')
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertJsonPath('meta.count', 0);
+});
+
+it('excludes stations beyond radius', function () {
+    // Station ~100km north
+    $farStation = Station::factory()->create(['lat' => 53.5, 'lng' => -0.256119]);
+    StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create([
+        'station_id' => $farStation->node_id,
+        'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard,
+        'price_pence' => 14200,
+    ]);
+
+    $this->getJson('/api/stations?lat=52.555064&lng=-0.256119&fuel_type=diesel&radius=10')
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertJsonPath('meta.count', 0);
+});
+
+it('sorts by price when sort=price', function () {
+    $sLat = 52.555;
+    $sLng = -0.256;
+    $cheap = Station::factory()->create(['lat' => $sLat, 'lng' => $sLng]);
+    $expensive = Station::factory()->create(['lat' => $sLat + 0.001, 'lng' => $sLng]);
+
+    StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create(['station_id' => $cheap->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard, 'price_pence' => 13900]);
+    StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create(['station_id' => $expensive->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard, 'price_pence' => 14500]);
+
+    $this->getJson("/api/stations?lat={$sLat}&lng={$sLng}&fuel_type=diesel&radius=10&sort=price")
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertJsonPath('data.0.price_pence', 13900);
+});
+
+it('logs a search record for each request', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create(['lat' => 52.555064, 'lng' => -0.256119]);
+    StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create(['station_id' => $station->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard, 'price_pence' => 14500]);
+
+    $this->getJson('/api/stations?lat=52.555064&lng=-0.256119&fuel_type=diesel&radius=10');
+
+    $this->assertDatabaseHas('searches', [
+        'lat_bucket' => '52.56',
+        'lng_bucket' => '-0.26',
+        'fuel_type' => 'b7_standard',
+        'results_count' => 1,
+        'lowest_pence' => 14500,
+        'highest_pence' => 14500,
+    ]);
+});
+
+it('returns 422 when required params are missing', function () {
+    $this->getJson('/api/stations?lat=52.5')
+        ->assertUnprocessable();
+});

tests/Feature/Api/StatsControllerTest.php

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+<?php
+
+use App\Models\Search;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
+
+uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
+
+it('returns search stats for current week', function () {
+    // 10 searches within the rolling 7 days (3 unique IPs)
+    Search::factory()->count(5)->create([
+        'searched_at' => now()->subDays(2),
+        'ip_hash' => hash('sha256', '1.2.3.4'),
+        'lowest_pence' => 13800,
+        'highest_pence' => 14500,
+        'avg_pence' => 14150.00,
+        'results_count' => 20,
+    ]);
+    Search::factory()->count(3)->create([
+        'searched_at' => now()->subDays(4),
+        'ip_hash' => hash('sha256', '5.6.7.8'),
+        'lowest_pence' => 14200,
+        'highest_pence' => 15000,
+        'avg_pence' => 14600.00,
+        'results_count' => 30,
+    ]);
+    Search::factory()->count(2)->create([
+        'searched_at' => now()->subDays(6),
+        'ip_hash' => hash('sha256', '9.10.11.12'),
+        'lowest_pence' => 13500,
+        'highest_pence' => 14000,
+        'avg_pence' => 13750.00,
+        'results_count' => 10,
+    ]);
+    // 5 searches outside the 7-day window
+    Search::factory()->count(5)->create(['searched_at' => now()->subDays(10)]);
+
+    $this->getJson('/api/stats/searches?period=week')
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertJsonStructure(['total_searches', 'unique_searchers', 'avg_results', 'avg_lowest_price', 'avg_highest_price', 'avg_price', 'period', 'message'])
+        ->assertJsonPath('total_searches', 10)
+        ->assertJsonPath('unique_searchers', 3)
+        ->assertJsonPath('period', 'week');
+});
+
+it('includes a human readable message', function () {
+    Search::factory()->count(3)->create(['searched_at' => now()->subDay()]);
+
+    $response = $this->getJson('/api/stats/searches?period=week')->assertOk();
+
+    expect($response->json('message'))->toContain('drivers');
+});
+
+it('returns zero stats when no searches exist', function () {
+    $this->getJson('/api/stats/searches?period=week')
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertJsonPath('total_searches', 0)
+        ->assertJsonPath('unique_searchers', 0);
+});
+
+it('defaults to week period when period param is omitted', function () {
+    $this->getJson('/api/stats/searches')
+        ->assertOk()
+        ->assertJsonPath('period', 'week');
+});

tests/Pest.php

@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ use Tests\TestCase;
 */
 
 pest()->extend(TestCase::class)
- // ->use(RefreshDatabase::class)
+    ->use(RefreshDatabase::class)
     ->in('Feature', 'Unit');
 
 /*

tests/Unit/Enums/FuelTypeTest.php

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+<?php
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+
+it('resolves diesel alias to B7Standard', function () {
+    expect(FuelType::fromAlias('diesel'))->toBe(FuelType::B7Standard);
+});
+
+it('resolves petrol alias to E10', function () {
+    expect(FuelType::fromAlias('petrol'))->toBe(FuelType::E10);
+});
+
+it('resolves unleaded alias to E10', function () {
+    expect(FuelType::fromAlias('unleaded'))->toBe(FuelType::E10);
+});
+
+it('resolves premium_unleaded alias to E5', function () {
+    expect(FuelType::fromAlias('premium_unleaded'))->toBe(FuelType::E5);
+});
+
+it('accepts canonical enum values as aliases', function () {
+    expect(FuelType::fromAlias('e10'))->toBe(FuelType::E10);
+    expect(FuelType::fromAlias('b7_standard'))->toBe(FuelType::B7Standard);
+});
+
+it('throws ValueError for unknown alias', function () {
+    FuelType::fromAlias('avgas');
+})->throws(ValueError::class);

tests/Unit/Services/NationalFuelPredictionServiceTest.php

@@ -0,0 +1,107 @@
+<?php
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+use App\Models\Station;
+use App\Models\StationPrice;
+use App\Models\StationPriceCurrent;
+use App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
+
+uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
+
+it('returns no_signal when there is insufficient price history', function () {
+    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(FuelType::B7Standard);
+
+    expect($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('stable')
+        ->and($result['signals']['trend']['enabled'])->toBeFalse()
+        ->and($result['action'])->toBe('no_signal');
+});
+
+it('detects rising trend from consistently increasing daily averages', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create();
+
+    // 7 days of prices rising at ~100 pence/day
+    for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
+        StationPrice::factory()->create([
+            'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+            'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard,
+            'price_pence' => 14000 + ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100),
+            'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(FuelType::B7Standard);
+
+    expect($result['signals']['trend']['direction'])->toBe('up')
+        ->and($result['signals']['trend']['enabled'])->toBeTrue()
+        ->and($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('up')
+        ->and($result['action'])->toBe('fill_now');
+});
+
+it('detects falling trend from consistently decreasing daily averages', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create();
+
+    for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
+        StationPrice::factory()->create([
+            'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+            'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard,
+            'price_pence' => 16000 - ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100),
+            'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(FuelType::B7Standard);
+
+    expect($result['signals']['trend']['direction'])->toBe('down')
+        ->and($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('down')
+        ->and($result['action'])->toBe('wait');
+});
+
+it('returns current_avg from station_prices_current', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create();
+    StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create([
+        'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+        'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard,
+        'price_pence' => 14750,
+    ]);
+
+    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(FuelType::B7Standard);
+
+    expect($result['current_avg'])->toBe(147.5);
+});
+
+it('includes all required keys in response', function () {
+    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(FuelType::B7Standard);
+
+    expect($result)->toHaveKeys([
+        'fuel_type', 'current_avg', 'predicted_direction', 'predicted_change_pence',
+        'confidence_score', 'confidence_label', 'action', 'reasoning',
+        'prediction_horizon_days', 'region_key', 'methodology',
+        'signals',
+    ]);
+
+    expect($result['signals'])->toHaveKeys([
+        'trend', 'day_of_week', 'brand_behaviour',
+        'national_momentum', 'regional_momentum', 'price_stickiness',
+    ]);
+});
+
+it('disables trend signal when r_squared is below 0.5', function () {
+    $station = Station::factory()->create();
+
+    // Highly erratic prices (zigzag pattern) — low R²
+    $prices = [14000, 16000, 13000, 17000, 12000, 18000, 14500];
+    foreach ($prices as $daysAgo => $price) {
+        StationPrice::factory()->create([
+            'station_id' => $station->node_id,
+            'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard,
+            'price_pence' => $price,
+            'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays(count($prices) - 1 - $daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(FuelType::B7Standard);
+
+    // Trend signal may be disabled if both 5-day and 14-day lookbacks fail R² threshold
+    expect($result['signals']['trend']['data_points'])->toBeInt();
+});

tests/Unit/Services/OilPriceServiceTest.php

@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
 uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
 
 beforeEach(function (): void {
+    Http::preventStrayRequests();
     $this->service = new OilPriceService(new ApiLogger);
 });
 
@@ -39,7 +40,7 @@ it('filters out FRED missing value markers', function (): void {
         '*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::response([
             'observations' => [
                 ['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'],
-                ['date' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '.'],  // weekend/holiday
+                ['date' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '.'],
                 ['date' => '2026-04-03', 'value' => '74.20'],
             ],
         ]),
@@ -105,7 +106,7 @@ it('returns flat when price movement is within threshold', function (): void {
         ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(50);
 });
 
-it('returns null when fewer than 14 prices are available', function (): void {
+it('returns null when fewer than 14 prices are available for EWMA', function (): void {
     $prices = collect(range(1, 10))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
         'date' => now()->subDays(10 - $i)->toDateString(),
         'price_usd' => 75.0,
@@ -172,9 +173,113 @@ it('returns null when LLM returns malformed JSON', function (): void {
     expect($this->service->generateLlmPrediction($prices))->toBeNull();
 });
 
+// --- generateLlmPredictionWithContext ---
+
+it('generates LLM prediction with context and returns LlmWithContext source', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0 + $i * 0.5,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":72,"reasoning":"OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward."}']],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
+        ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising)
+        ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(72)
+        ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::LlmWithContext)
+        ->and($prediction->reasoning)->toBe('OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward.');
+
+    Http::assertSentCount(1);
+});
+
+it('sends web_search tool in the context prediction request', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
+        $tools = $request->data()['tools'] ?? [];
+
+        return collect($tools)->contains(fn ($t) => $t['type'] === 'web_search_20260209');
+    });
+});
+
+it('does not include EWMA indicators in the context prediction prompt', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
+            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
+        $content = $request->data()['messages'][0]['content'] ?? '';
+
+        return ! str_contains($content, 'EWMA') && ! str_contains($content, 'Pre-computed');
+    });
+});
+
+it('continues on pause_turn and returns final answer', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([
+        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+        'price_usd' => 80.0,
+    ]));
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
+            ->push([
+                'content' => [['type' => 'server_tool_use', 'id' => 'sttool_1', 'name' => 'web_search', 'input' => ['query' => 'Brent crude news']]],
+                'stop_reason' => 'pause_turn',
+            ])
+            ->push([
+                'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"falling","confidence":60,"reasoning":"Demand fears weigh on prices."}']],
+                'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
+            ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
+
+    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
+        ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling);
+
+    Http::assertSentCount(2);
+});
+
 // --- generatePrediction (orchestrator) ---
 
-it('uses LLM when API key is configured', function (): void {
+it('uses LLM with context when API key is configured', function (): void {
     config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
 
     BrentPrice::insert(
@@ -186,9 +291,32 @@ it('uses LLM when API key is configured', function (): void {
 
     Http::fake([
         'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
-            'content' => [
+            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":70,"reasoning":"Trend is up."}']],
-                ['text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":70,"reasoning":"Trend is up."}'],
+            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
-            ],
+        ]),
+    ]);
+
+    $prediction = $this->service->generatePrediction();
+
+    expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::LlmWithContext)
+        ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1);
+});
+
+it('falls back to plain LLM when context method fails', function (): void {
+    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
+
+    BrentPrice::insert(
+        collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => [
+            'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(),
+            'price_usd' => 75.0 + ($i * 0.8),
+        ])->all()
+    );
+
+    Http::fake([
+        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
+            ->push([], 500)
+            ->push([
+                'content' => [['text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":70,"reasoning":"Trend up."}']],
             ]),
     ]);
 
@@ -198,7 +326,7 @@ it('uses LLM when API key is configured', function (): void {
         ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1);
 });
 
-it('falls back to EWMA when LLM fails', function (): void {
+it('falls back to EWMA when both LLM methods fail', function (): void {
     config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
 
     BrentPrice::insert(
@@ -227,131 +355,3 @@ it('returns null when there is insufficient price data', function (): void {
     expect($this->service->generatePrediction())->toBeNull()
         ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(0);
 });
-
-// --- generateLlmPredictionWithContext ---
-
-it('generates llm prediction with context using web search and raw prices', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0 + $s->index * 0.5,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
-            'content' => [
-                ['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":72,"reasoning":"OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward."}'],
-            ],
-            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
-        ], 200),
-    ]);
-
-    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
-    $prediction = app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
-
-    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
-        ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising)
-        ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(72)
-        ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Llm)
-        ->and($prediction->reasoning)->toBe('OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward.');
-
-    Http::assertSentCount(1);
-});
-
-it('sends web_search tool in the context prediction request', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
-            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']],
-            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
-        ], 200),
-    ]);
-
-    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
-    app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
-
-    Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
-        $tools = $request->data()['tools'] ?? [];
-
-        return collect($tools)->contains(fn ($t) => $t['type'] === 'web_search_20260209');
-    });
-});
-
-it('does not include ewma indicators in the context prediction request', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([
-            'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']],
-            'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
-        ], 200),
-    ]);
-
-    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
-    app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
-
-    Http::assertSent(function ($request) {
-        $content = $request->data()['messages'][0]['content'] ?? '';
-
-        return ! str_contains($content, 'EWMA') && ! str_contains($content, 'Pre-computed');
-    });
-});
-
-it('context prediction continues on pause_turn and returns final answer', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence()
-            ->push([
-                'content' => [['type' => 'server_tool_use', 'id' => 'sttool_1', 'name' => 'web_search', 'input' => ['query' => 'Brent crude news']]],
-                'stop_reason' => 'pause_turn',
-            ], 200)
-            ->push([
-                'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"falling","confidence":60,"reasoning":"Demand fears weigh on prices."}']],
-                'stop_reason' => 'end_turn',
-            ], 200),
-    ]);
-
-    $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
-    $prediction = app(OilPriceService::class)->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices);
-
-    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
-        ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling);
-
-    Http::assertSentCount(2);
-});
-
-it('generatePrediction falls through to ewma when both llm methods fail', function () {
-    config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']);
-
-    BrentPrice::factory()->count(20)->sequence(fn ($s) => [
-        'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $s->index)->toDateString(),
-        'price_usd' => 80.0,
-    ])->create();
-
-    Http::fake([
-        'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([], 500),
-    ]);
-
-    $prediction = app(OilPriceService::class)->generatePrediction();
-
-    expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull()
-        ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma);
-});