provider = Mockery::mock(OilPredictionProvider::class); $this->predictor = new BrentPricePredictor($this->provider); }); it('detects a rising trend when 3-day EWMA exceeds 7-day EWMA by threshold', function (): void { $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 70.0 + ($i * 2.0), ])); $prediction = $this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices); expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising) ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma) ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBeGreaterThan(0) ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBeLessThanOrEqual(65); }); it('detects a falling trend when 3-day EWMA falls below 7-day EWMA by threshold', function (): void { $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 85.0 - ($i * 2.0), ])); $prediction = $this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices); expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling); }); it('returns flat when price movement is within threshold', function (): void { $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0 + (($i % 2 === 0) ? 0.1 : -0.1), ])); $prediction = $this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices); expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Flat) ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(50); }); it('returns null when fewer than 14 prices are available for EWMA', function (): void { $prices = collect(range(1, 10))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(10 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0, ])); expect($this->predictor->generateEwmaPrediction($prices))->toBeNull(); }); it('stores only the LLM prediction when the provider succeeds', function (): void { seedPrices(20); $this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn(new PricePrediction([ 'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(), 'source' => PredictionSource::LlmWithContext, 'direction' => TrendDirection::Rising, 'confidence' => 70, 'reasoning' => 'Trend is up.', 'generated_at' => now(), ])); $prediction = $this->predictor->generatePrediction(); expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::LlmWithContext) ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1) ->and(PricePrediction::where('source', PredictionSource::Ewma)->count())->toBe(0); }); it('falls back to EWMA when provider returns null', function (): void { seedPrices(20, slope: 0.8); $this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn(null); $prediction = $this->predictor->generatePrediction(); expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma) ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1); }); it('returns null when there is insufficient price data', function (): void { BrentPrice::insert([ ['date' => now()->subDays(2)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0], ['date' => now()->subDay()->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 76.0], ]); $this->provider->shouldNotReceive('predict'); expect($this->predictor->generatePrediction())->toBeNull() ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(0); }); it('flags latest brent price as prediction generated on success', function (): void { seedPrices(20); $this->provider->shouldReceive('predict')->once()->andReturn(null); $this->predictor->generatePrediction(); $latest = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->first(); expect($latest->prediction_generated_at)->not->toBeNull(); }); it('does not flag when prediction cannot be generated', function (): void { BrentPrice::insert([ ['date' => now()->subDay()->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0], ]); $this->provider->shouldNotReceive('predict'); $this->predictor->generatePrediction(); expect(BrentPrice::first()->prediction_generated_at)->toBeNull(); }); it('returns the latest price row', function (): void { seedPrices(3); expect($this->predictor->latestPrice())->not->toBeNull() ->and($this->predictor->latestPrice()->date->toDateString())->toBe(now()->toDateString()); }); function seedPrices(int $count, float $slope = 1.0): void { BrentPrice::insert( collect(range(1, $count))->map(fn (int $i) => [ 'date' => now()->subDays($count - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0 + ($i * $slope), ])->all() ); }