predict(); expect($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('stable') ->and($result['signals']['trend']['enabled'])->toBeFalse() ->and($result['action'])->toBe('no_signal'); }); it('detects rising trend from consistently increasing daily averages', function () { $station = Station::factory()->create(); // 7 days of prices rising at ~100 pence/day for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) { StationPrice::factory()->create([ 'station_id' => $station->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10, 'price_pence' => 14000 + ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100), 'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0), ]); } $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); expect($result['signals']['trend']['direction'])->toBe('up') ->and($result['signals']['trend']['enabled'])->toBeTrue() ->and($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('up') ->and($result['action'])->toBe('fill_now'); }); it('detects falling trend from consistently decreasing daily averages', function () { $station = Station::factory()->create(); for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) { StationPrice::factory()->create([ 'station_id' => $station->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10, 'price_pence' => 16000 - ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100), 'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0), ]); } $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); expect($result['signals']['trend']['direction'])->toBe('down') ->and($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('down') ->and($result['action'])->toBe('wait'); }); it('returns current_avg from station_prices_current', function () { $station = Station::factory()->create(); StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create([ 'station_id' => $station->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10, 'price_pence' => 14750, ]); $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); expect($result['current_avg'])->toBe(147.5); }); it('includes all required keys in response', function () { $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); expect($result) ->toHaveKeys([ 'fuel_type', 'current_avg', 'predicted_direction', 'predicted_change_pence', 'confidence_score', 'confidence_label', 'action', 'reasoning', 'prediction_horizon_days', 'region_key', 'methodology', 'weekly_summary', 'signals', ]) ->and($result['signals'])->toHaveKeys([ 'trend', 'day_of_week', 'brand_behaviour', 'national_momentum', 'regional_momentum', 'price_stickiness', 'oil', ]) ->and($result['weekly_summary'])->toHaveKeys([ 'yesterday_avg', 'today_avg', 'tomorrow_estimated_avg', 'yesterday_today_delta_pence', 'last_7_days_series', 'last_7_days_change_pence', 'cheapest_day', 'priciest_day', 'is_regional', ]); }); it('weekly_summary returns null prices and empty series when there is no data', function () { $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); $weekly = $result['weekly_summary']; expect($weekly['yesterday_avg'])->toBeNull() ->and($weekly['yesterday_today_delta_pence'])->toBeNull() ->and($weekly['last_7_days_series'])->toBe([]) ->and($weekly['cheapest_day'])->toBeNull() ->and($weekly['priciest_day'])->toBeNull() ->and($weekly['is_regional'])->toBeFalse(); }); it('weekly_summary populates yesterday avg, today avg and 7-day series from station_prices', function () { $station = Station::factory()->create(); StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create([ 'station_id' => $station->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10, 'price_pence' => 14000, ]); for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) { StationPrice::factory()->create([ 'station_id' => $station->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10, 'price_pence' => 14000 + ($daysAgo * 50), 'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0), ]); } $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); $weekly = $result['weekly_summary']; expect($weekly['yesterday_avg'])->toBe(140.5) ->and($weekly['today_avg'])->toBe(140.0) ->and($weekly['yesterday_today_delta_pence'])->toBe(-0.5) ->and(count($weekly['last_7_days_series']))->toBe(7) ->and($weekly['cheapest_day']['avg'])->toBe(140.0) ->and($weekly['priciest_day']['avg'])->toBe(143.0); }); it('weekly_summary falls back from regional to national when regional data is empty', function () { $station = Station::factory()->create(['lat' => 51.5, 'lng' => -0.1]); for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) { StationPrice::factory()->create([ 'station_id' => $station->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10, 'price_pence' => 14000, 'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0), ]); } // Coordinates 600+ km away from any station — no regional data available. $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(58.0, -3.0); $weekly = $result['weekly_summary']; expect($weekly['is_regional'])->toBeFalse() ->and(count($weekly['last_7_days_series']))->toBe(7); }); it('weekly_summary marks is_regional true when stations exist within 50km of coordinates', function () { $station = Station::factory()->create(['lat' => 51.5, 'lng' => -0.1]); for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) { StationPrice::factory()->create([ 'station_id' => $station->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10, 'price_pence' => 14000, 'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0), ]); } $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(51.5074, -0.1278); expect($result['weekly_summary']['is_regional'])->toBeTrue(); }); it('always returns e10 as fuel_type', function () { $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); expect($result['fuel_type'])->toBe('e10'); }); it('returns national region_key without coordinates', function () { $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); expect($result['region_key'])->toBe('national'); }); it('returns regional region_key when coordinates are provided', function () { $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(51.5074, -0.1278); expect($result['region_key'])->toBe('regional'); }); it('enables regional_momentum signal when coordinates are provided', function () { $station = Station::factory()->create(['lat' => 51.5, 'lng' => -0.1]); for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) { StationPrice::factory()->create([ 'station_id' => $station->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10, 'price_pence' => 14000 + ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100), 'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0), ]); } $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(51.5074, -0.1278); expect($result['signals']['regional_momentum']['enabled'])->toBeTrue(); }); it('disables regional_momentum signal without coordinates', function () { $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); expect($result['signals']['regional_momentum']['enabled'])->toBeFalse(); }); it('disables trend signal when r_squared is below 0.5', function () { $station = Station::factory()->create(); // Highly erratic prices (zigzag pattern) — low R² $prices = [14000, 16000, 13000, 17000, 12000, 18000, 14500]; foreach ($prices as $daysAgo => $price) { StationPrice::factory()->create([ 'station_id' => $station->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10, 'price_pence' => $price, 'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays(count($prices) - 1 - $daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0), ]); } $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); // Trend signal may be disabled if both 5-day and 14-day lookbacks fail R² threshold expect($result['signals']['trend']['data_points'])->toBeInt(); }); it('oil signal is disabled when no price_predictions row covers today or later', function () { $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); expect($result['signals']['oil']['enabled'])->toBeFalse(); }); it('oil signal picks up an llm prediction over an ewma one for the same date', function () { DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([ [ 'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(), 'source' => 'ewma', 'direction' => 'flat', 'confidence' => 60, 'reasoning' => null, 'generated_at' => now()->subHour(), ], [ 'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(), 'source' => 'llm', 'direction' => 'rising', 'confidence' => 75, 'reasoning' => 'OPEC cut', 'generated_at' => now(), ], ]); $oil = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict()['signals']['oil']; expect($oil['enabled'])->toBeTrue() ->and($oil['direction'])->toBe('up') ->and($oil['score'])->toBe(1.0) ->and($oil['confidence'])->toBe(0.75); }); it('oil signal prefers llm_with_context over plain llm', function () { DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([ [ 'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(), 'source' => 'llm', 'direction' => 'falling', 'confidence' => 70, 'reasoning' => 'baseline', 'generated_at' => now(), ], [ 'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(), 'source' => 'llm_with_context', 'direction' => 'rising', 'confidence' => 82, 'reasoning' => 'with context', 'generated_at' => now(), ], ]); $oil = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict()['signals']['oil']; expect($oil['direction'])->toBe('up') ->and($oil['confidence'])->toBe(0.82); }); it('confidence reaches "high" when trend and oil agree strongly', function () { $station = Station::factory()->create(); // Strong falling trend over 7 days, ~1p/day for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) { StationPrice::factory()->create([ 'station_id' => $station->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10, 'price_pence' => 15000 - ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100), 'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0), ]); } DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([ 'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(), 'source' => 'llm', 'direction' => 'falling', 'confidence' => 80, 'reasoning' => 'agree', 'generated_at' => now(), ]); $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); expect($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('down') ->and($result['confidence_score'])->toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(70) ->and($result['confidence_label'])->toBe('high'); }); it('confidence drops when trend and oil disagree', function () { $station = Station::factory()->create(); // Strong falling trend for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) { StationPrice::factory()->create([ 'station_id' => $station->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10, 'price_pence' => 15000 - ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100), 'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0), ]); } // Oil disagrees: rising DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([ 'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(), 'source' => 'llm', 'direction' => 'rising', 'confidence' => 80, 'reasoning' => 'opec', 'generated_at' => now(), ]); $agree = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); // Replace oil with one that agrees instead — confidence should be higher DB::table('price_predictions')->update([ 'direction' => 'falling', ]); $disagreeReplaced = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); expect($agree['confidence_score'])->toBeLessThan($disagreeReplaced['confidence_score']); }); it('day-of-week signal activates at 21 days of history (no longer 56)', function () { $station = Station::factory()->create(); for ($daysAgo = 25; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) { StationPrice::factory()->create([ 'station_id' => $station->node_id, 'fuel_type' => FuelType::E10, 'price_pence' => 14000 + ($daysAgo % 7) * 50, 'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0), ]); } $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); expect($result['signals']['day_of_week']['enabled'])->toBeTrue(); }); it('reasoning fallback for the wait action does not say "fill up"', function () { // No data → trend disabled, brand disabled, oil disabled. // Force a "down" direction by injecting an oil prediction that points down with low confidence. DB::table('price_predictions')->insert([ 'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(), 'source' => 'ewma', 'direction' => 'falling', 'confidence' => 50, 'reasoning' => null, 'generated_at' => now(), ]); $result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(); if ($result['action'] === 'wait') { expect($result['reasoning'])->not->toContain('fill up at the cheapest'); } else { // If thresholds keep this at no_signal, still verify action-aware fallback exists expect($result['reasoning'])->toBeString(); } });