join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id') ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value) ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(7)) ->selectRaw('stations.is_supermarket, DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price') ->groupBy('stations.is_supermarket', 'day') ->orderBy('day') ->get(); $supermarket = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 1)->values(); $major = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 0)->values(); if ($supermarket->count() < 2 || $major->count() < 2) { return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient brand data for comparison'); } $supermarketSlope = $this->linearRegression($supermarket->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope']; $majorSlope = $this->linearRegression($major->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope']; $divergence = round(abs($supermarketSlope - $majorSlope) * 7, 1); $supermarketChange = round($supermarketSlope * 7, 1); $majorChange = round($majorSlope * 7, 1); if ($divergence < 1.0) { return [ 'score' => 0.0, 'confidence' => 0.5, 'direction' => 'stable', 'detail' => 'Supermarkets and majors moving in sync.', 'data_points' => $rows->count(), 'enabled' => true, ]; } $leaderChange = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? $supermarketChange : $majorChange; $direction = $leaderChange > 0 ? 'up' : 'down'; $leader = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? 'Supermarkets' : 'Majors'; $follower = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? 'majors' : 'supermarkets'; $leaderAbs = abs($leaderChange); $followerChange = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? abs($majorChange) : abs($supermarketChange); return [ 'score' => $direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0, 'confidence' => min(1.0, $divergence / 5.0), 'direction' => $direction, 'detail' => "{$leader} ".($leaderChange > 0 ? 'rose' : 'fell')." {$leaderAbs}p vs {$follower} {$followerChange}p (divergence: {$divergence}p). Expect {$follower} to follow.", 'data_points' => $rows->count(), 'enabled' => true, ]; } }