service = new OilPriceService(new ApiLogger); }); // --- fetchBrentPrices --- it('fetches and stores brent prices from FRED', function (): void { Http::fake([ '*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::response([ 'observations' => [ ['date' => '2026-03-31', 'value' => '74.50'], ['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'], ['date' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '73.80'], ], ]), ]); $this->service->fetchBrentPrices(); expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(3) ->and(BrentPrice::find('2026-04-02')->price_usd)->toBe('73.80'); }); it('filters out FRED missing value markers', function (): void { Http::fake([ '*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::response([ 'observations' => [ ['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.10'], ['date' => '2026-04-02', 'value' => '.'], ['date' => '2026-04-03', 'value' => '74.20'], ], ]), ]); $this->service->fetchBrentPrices(); expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(2) ->and(BrentPrice::find('2026-04-02'))->toBeNull(); }); it('upserts existing brent price rows on refetch', function (): void { Http::fake([ '*/fred/series/observations*' => Http::sequence() ->push(['observations' => [['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '74.00']]]) ->push(['observations' => [['date' => '2026-04-01', 'value' => '75.50']]]), ]); $this->service->fetchBrentPrices(); $this->service->fetchBrentPrices(); expect(BrentPrice::count())->toBe(1) ->and(BrentPrice::find('2026-04-01')->price_usd)->toBe('75.50'); }); // --- generateEwmaPrediction --- it('detects a rising trend when 3-day EWMA exceeds 7-day EWMA by threshold', function (): void { $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 70.0 + ($i * 2.0), ])); $prediction = $this->service->generateEwmaPrediction($prices); expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising) ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma) ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBeGreaterThan(0) ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBeLessThanOrEqual(65); }); it('detects a falling trend when 3-day EWMA falls below 7-day EWMA by threshold', function (): void { $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 85.0 - ($i * 2.0), ])); $prediction = $this->service->generateEwmaPrediction($prices); expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling) ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma); }); it('returns flat when price movement is within threshold', function (): void { $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0 + (($i % 2 === 0) ? 0.1 : -0.1), ])); $prediction = $this->service->generateEwmaPrediction($prices); expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Flat) ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(50); }); it('returns null when fewer than 14 prices are available for EWMA', function (): void { $prices = collect(range(1, 10))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(10 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0, ])); expect($this->service->generateEwmaPrediction($prices))->toBeNull(); }); // --- generateLlmPrediction --- it('generates an LLM prediction and stores it', function (): void { $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0 + $i, ])); Http::fake([ 'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([ 'content' => [ ['text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":72,"reasoning":"Consistent upward trend over 14 days."}'], ], ]), ]); $prediction = $this->service->generateLlmPrediction($prices); expect($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising) ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Llm) ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(72) ->and($prediction->reasoning)->toBe('Consistent upward trend over 14 days.'); }); it('caps LLM confidence at 85', function (): void { $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0, ])); Http::fake([ 'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([ 'content' => [ ['text' => '{"direction":"falling","confidence":99,"reasoning":"Very confident."}'], ], ]), ]); $prediction = $this->service->generateLlmPrediction($prices); expect($prediction->confidence)->toBe(85); }); it('returns null when LLM returns malformed JSON', function (): void { $prices = collect(range(1, 14))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(14 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0, ])); Http::fake([ 'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([ 'content' => [['text' => 'Sorry, I cannot help with that.']], ]), ]); expect($this->service->generateLlmPrediction($prices))->toBeNull(); }); // --- generateLlmPredictionWithContext --- it('generates LLM prediction with context and returns LlmWithContext source', function (): void { config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']); $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 80.0 + $i * 0.5, ])); Http::fake([ 'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([ 'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":72,"reasoning":"OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward."}']], 'stop_reason' => 'end_turn', ]), ]); $prediction = $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices); expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull() ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Rising) ->and($prediction->confidence)->toBe(72) ->and($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::LlmWithContext) ->and($prediction->reasoning)->toBe('OPEC+ extended cuts while prices trend upward.'); Http::assertSentCount(1); }); it('sends web_search tool in the context prediction request', function (): void { config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']); $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 80.0, ])); Http::fake([ 'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([ 'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']], 'stop_reason' => 'end_turn', ]), ]); $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices); Http::assertSent(function ($request) { $tools = $request->data()['tools'] ?? []; return collect($tools)->contains(fn ($t) => $t['type'] === 'web_search_20250305'); }); }); it('does not include EWMA indicators in the context prediction prompt', function (): void { config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']); $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 80.0, ])); Http::fake([ 'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([ 'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"flat","confidence":50,"reasoning":"No clear trend."}']], 'stop_reason' => 'end_turn', ]), ]); $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices); Http::assertSent(function ($request) { $content = $request->data()['messages'][0]['content'] ?? ''; return ! str_contains($content, 'EWMA') && ! str_contains($content, 'Pre-computed'); }); }); it('continues on pause_turn and returns final answer', function (): void { config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']); $prices = collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => new BrentPrice([ 'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 80.0, ])); Http::fake([ 'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence() ->push([ 'content' => [['type' => 'server_tool_use', 'id' => 'sttool_1', 'name' => 'web_search', 'input' => ['query' => 'Brent crude news']]], 'stop_reason' => 'pause_turn', ]) ->push([ 'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"falling","confidence":60,"reasoning":"Demand fears weigh on prices."}']], 'stop_reason' => 'end_turn', ]), ]); $prediction = $this->service->generateLlmPredictionWithContext($prices); expect($prediction)->not->toBeNull() ->and($prediction->direction)->toBe(TrendDirection::Falling); Http::assertSentCount(2); }); // --- generatePrediction (orchestrator) --- it('uses LLM with context when API key is configured', function (): void { config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']); BrentPrice::insert( collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => [ 'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0 + $i, ])->all() ); Http::fake([ 'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([ 'content' => [['type' => 'text', 'text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":70,"reasoning":"Trend is up."}']], 'stop_reason' => 'end_turn', ]), ]); $prediction = $this->service->generatePrediction(); expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::LlmWithContext) ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(2); }); it('falls back to plain LLM when context method fails', function (): void { config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']); BrentPrice::insert( collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => [ 'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0 + ($i * 0.8), ])->all() ); Http::fake([ 'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::sequence() ->push([], 500) ->push([ 'content' => [['text' => '{"direction":"rising","confidence":70,"reasoning":"Trend up."}']], ]), ]); $prediction = $this->service->generatePrediction(); expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Llm) ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(2); }); it('falls back to EWMA when both LLM methods fail', function (): void { config(['services.anthropic.api_key' => 'test-key']); BrentPrice::insert( collect(range(1, 20))->map(fn (int $i) => [ 'date' => now()->subDays(20 - $i)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0 + ($i * 0.8), ])->all() ); Http::fake([ 'https://api.anthropic.com/*' => Http::response([], 500), ]); $prediction = $this->service->generatePrediction(); expect($prediction->source)->toBe(PredictionSource::Ewma) ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(1); }); it('returns null when there is insufficient price data', function (): void { BrentPrice::insert([ ['date' => now()->subDays(2)->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 75.0], ['date' => now()->subDay()->toDateString(), 'price_usd' => 76.0], ]); expect($this->service->generatePrediction())->toBeNull() ->and(PricePrediction::count())->toBe(0); });