27c82ef103
The 803-line NationalFuelPredictionService had six private compute*Signal methods, a private linearRegression helper, and a private disabledSignal shape factory all crammed together. Each signal is now an independently testable class. - App\Services\Prediction\Signals\Signal — interface - App\Services\Prediction\Signals\SignalContext — input value object (FuelType + optional lat/lng + hasCoordinates() helper) - App\Services\Prediction\Signals\AbstractSignal — shared disabledSignal() and linearRegression() helpers - TrendSignal, DayOfWeekSignal, BrandBehaviourSignal, StickinessSignal, RegionalMomentumSignal, OilSignal — one class each, extending AbstractSignal NationalFuelPredictionService receives the 6 signal classes via constructor injection and orchestrates them. The lat/lng null-guard for regional momentum now lives inside RegionalMomentumSignal::compute() so the coordinator no longer branches on coordinate presence. Aggregation, weekly summary, and reasoning helpers stay in the service for now — they are coupled to the public predict() output shape and are candidates for a follow-up extraction once a stable API is locked in. Service: 803 → 414 lines. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
62 lines
2.7 KiB
PHP
62 lines
2.7 KiB
PHP
<?php
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namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
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use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
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final class BrandBehaviourSignal extends AbstractSignal
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{
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public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
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{
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$rows = DB::table('station_prices')
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->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
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->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
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->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(7))
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->selectRaw('stations.is_supermarket, DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
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->groupBy('stations.is_supermarket', 'day')
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->orderBy('day')
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->get();
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$supermarket = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 1)->values();
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$major = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 0)->values();
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if ($supermarket->count() < 2 || $major->count() < 2) {
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return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient brand data for comparison');
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}
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$supermarketSlope = $this->linearRegression($supermarket->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
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$majorSlope = $this->linearRegression($major->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
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$divergence = round(abs($supermarketSlope - $majorSlope) * 7, 1);
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$supermarketChange = round($supermarketSlope * 7, 1);
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$majorChange = round($majorSlope * 7, 1);
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if ($divergence < 1.0) {
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return [
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'score' => 0.0,
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'confidence' => 0.5,
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'direction' => 'stable',
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'detail' => 'Supermarkets and majors moving in sync.',
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'data_points' => $rows->count(),
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'enabled' => true,
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];
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}
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$leaderChange = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? $supermarketChange : $majorChange;
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$direction = $leaderChange > 0 ? 'up' : 'down';
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$leader = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? 'Supermarkets' : 'Majors';
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$follower = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? 'majors' : 'supermarkets';
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$leaderAbs = abs($leaderChange);
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$followerChange = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? abs($majorChange) : abs($supermarketChange);
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return [
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'score' => $direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0,
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'confidence' => min(1.0, $divergence / 5.0),
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'direction' => $direction,
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'detail' => "{$leader} ".($leaderChange > 0 ? 'rose' : 'fell')." {$leaderAbs}p vs {$follower} {$followerChange}p (divergence: {$divergence}p). Expect {$follower} to follow.",
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'data_points' => $rows->count(),
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'enabled' => true,
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];
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}
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}
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