108 lines
4.0 KiB
PHP
108 lines
4.0 KiB
PHP
<?php
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use App\Enums\FuelType;
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use App\Models\Station;
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use App\Models\StationPrice;
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use App\Models\StationPriceCurrent;
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use App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService;
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use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
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uses(RefreshDatabase::class);
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it('returns no_signal when there is insufficient price history', function () {
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$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(FuelType::B7Standard);
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expect($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('stable')
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->and($result['signals']['trend']['enabled'])->toBeFalse()
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->and($result['action'])->toBe('no_signal');
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});
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it('detects rising trend from consistently increasing daily averages', function () {
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$station = Station::factory()->create();
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// 7 days of prices rising at ~100 pence/day
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for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
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StationPrice::factory()->create([
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'station_id' => $station->node_id,
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'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard,
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'price_pence' => 14000 + ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100),
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'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
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]);
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}
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$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(FuelType::B7Standard);
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expect($result['signals']['trend']['direction'])->toBe('up')
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->and($result['signals']['trend']['enabled'])->toBeTrue()
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->and($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('up')
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->and($result['action'])->toBe('fill_now');
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});
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it('detects falling trend from consistently decreasing daily averages', function () {
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$station = Station::factory()->create();
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for ($daysAgo = 6; $daysAgo >= 0; $daysAgo--) {
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StationPrice::factory()->create([
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'station_id' => $station->node_id,
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'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard,
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'price_pence' => 16000 - ((6 - $daysAgo) * 100),
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'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays($daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
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]);
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}
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$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(FuelType::B7Standard);
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expect($result['signals']['trend']['direction'])->toBe('down')
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->and($result['predicted_direction'])->toBe('down')
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->and($result['action'])->toBe('wait');
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});
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it('returns current_avg from station_prices_current', function () {
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$station = Station::factory()->create();
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StationPriceCurrent::factory()->create([
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'station_id' => $station->node_id,
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'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard,
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'price_pence' => 14750,
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]);
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$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(FuelType::B7Standard);
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expect($result['current_avg'])->toBe(147.5);
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});
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it('includes all required keys in response', function () {
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$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(FuelType::B7Standard);
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expect($result)->toHaveKeys([
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'fuel_type', 'current_avg', 'predicted_direction', 'predicted_change_pence',
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'confidence_score', 'confidence_label', 'action', 'reasoning',
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'prediction_horizon_days', 'region_key', 'methodology',
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'signals',
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]);
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expect($result['signals'])->toHaveKeys([
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'trend', 'day_of_week', 'brand_behaviour',
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'national_momentum', 'regional_momentum', 'price_stickiness',
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]);
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});
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it('disables trend signal when r_squared is below 0.5', function () {
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$station = Station::factory()->create();
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// Highly erratic prices (zigzag pattern) — low R²
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$prices = [14000, 16000, 13000, 17000, 12000, 18000, 14500];
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foreach ($prices as $daysAgo => $price) {
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StationPrice::factory()->create([
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'station_id' => $station->node_id,
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'fuel_type' => FuelType::B7Standard,
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'price_pence' => $price,
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'price_effective_at' => now()->subDays(count($prices) - 1 - $daysAgo)->setTime(12, 0),
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]);
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}
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$result = app(NationalFuelPredictionService::class)->predict(FuelType::B7Standard);
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// Trend signal may be disabled if both 5-day and 14-day lookbacks fail R² threshold
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expect($result['signals']['trend']['data_points'])->toBeInt();
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});
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