feat(forecasting): build calibrated weekly forecast stack with LLM overlay and volatility detector

Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the
public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is
new and honest.

Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md):
1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features
   trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn
   from a backtested calibration table, not made up.
2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over
   station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future.
3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The
   ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface
   as badges, never blended into the number.
4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call,
   structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence,
   URL-verified citations or rejection.
5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the
   active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major
   impact, station churn (gated), watched_events).

Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the
8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest
harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp
check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table.

Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out)
ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change
baseline by ~30pp on real data.

New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes,
llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events.

New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay,
forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import.

Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK,
forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30,
forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/Console/Commands/RunLlmOverlay.php

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Console\Commands;
+
+use App\Services\Forecasting\LlmOverlayService;
+use Illuminate\Console\Attributes\Description;
+use Illuminate\Console\Attributes\Signature;
+use Illuminate\Console\Command;
+
+#[Signature('forecast:llm-overlay {--event-driven : Honor the 4h cooldown (default: false; daily 07:00 cron always runs)}')]
+#[Description('Run the daily Anthropic web-search overlay on the current weekly forecast.')]
+class RunLlmOverlay extends Command
+{
+    public function handle(LlmOverlayService $service): int
+    {
+        $row = $service->run(eventDriven: (bool) $this->option('event-driven'));
+
+        if ($row === null) {
+            $this->warn('LLM overlay skipped (no API key, on cooldown, or rejected for empty citations).');
+
+            return self::SUCCESS;
+        }
+
+        $this->info(sprintf(
+            'Stored llm_overlays #%d — direction=%s confidence=%d major_impact=%s.',
+            $row->id,
+            $row->direction,
+            $row->confidence,
+            $row->major_impact_event ? 'YES' : 'no',
+        ));
+
+        return self::SUCCESS;
+    }
+}