feat(forecasting): build calibrated weekly forecast stack with LLM overlay and volatility detector

Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the
public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is
new and honest.

Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md):
1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features
   trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn
   from a backtested calibration table, not made up.
2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over
   station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future.
3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The
   ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface
   as badges, never blended into the number.
4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call,
   structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence,
   URL-verified citations or rejection.
5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the
   active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major
   impact, station churn (gated), watched_events).

Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the
8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest
harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp
check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table.

Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out)
ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change
baseline by ~30pp on real data.

New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes,
llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events.

New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay,
forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import.

Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK,
forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30,
forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

routes/console.php

@@ -26,13 +26,49 @@ Schedule::command('fuel:poll --full')
     ->onOneServer()
     ->runInBackground();
 
-// Fetch FRED prices and generate oil price prediction daily at 7am
-Schedule::command('oil:predict --fetch')
+// Phase 7: Brent crude refresh at 06:30 UK so the 07:00 LLM overlay has
+// fresh context.
+Schedule::command('oil:fetch')
+    ->dailyAt('06:30')
+    ->withoutOverlapping()
+    ->onOneServer()
+    ->runInBackground();
+
+// Phase 8: news-aware overlay on the calibrated ridge forecast.
+Schedule::command('forecast:llm-overlay')
     ->dailyAt('07:00')
     ->withoutOverlapping()
     ->onOneServer()
     ->runInBackground();
 
+// Pull the latest BEIS Weekly Road Fuel Prices CSV from gov.uk every
+// Monday at 09:30 UK. The publication usually lands earlier in the
+// morning, so 09:30 is a safe buffer. Re-running on the same week is
+// idempotent (upsert keyed on `date`).
+Schedule::command('beis:import')
+    ->mondays()
+    ->at('09:30')
+    ->withoutOverlapping()
+    ->onOneServer()
+    ->runInBackground();
+
+// Phase 6: pair past forecasts with actual outcomes after BEIS
+// publishes. Runs after `beis:import` so the new ULSP row is in DB.
+Schedule::command('forecast:resolve-outcomes')
+    ->mondays()
+    ->at('10:00')
+    ->withoutOverlapping()
+    ->onOneServer()
+    ->runInBackground();
+
+// Phase 9: hourly volatility regime check (Brent moves, LLM events,
+// station churn (gated), watched events).
+Schedule::command('forecast:evaluate-volatility')
+    ->hourly()
+    ->withoutOverlapping()
+    ->onOneServer()
+    ->runInBackground();
+
 // Move station_prices rows older than 12 months into station_prices_archive
 // once a month. Keeps the partitioned hot table bounded.
 Schedule::command('fuel:archive')