ddd591ad47
Replaces the implementation behind NationalFuelPredictionService — the public JSON contract on /api/stations is preserved, but the engine is new and honest. Layers (per docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md): 1. Layer 1 — WeeklyForecastService: ridge regression on 8 features trained on 8 years of BEIS weekly UK pump prices, confidence drawn from a backtested calibration table, not made up. 2. Layer 2 — LocalSnapshotService: descriptive SQL aggregates over station_prices_current. Never speaks about the future. 3. Layer 3 — verdict via rule gates, not confidence multipliers. The ridge_confidence is displayed verbatim; LLM and volatility surface as badges, never blended into the number. 4. Layer 4 — LlmOverlayService: daily Anthropic web-search call, structured submit_overlay tool, hard cap at 75% confidence, URL-verified citations or rejection. 5. Layer 5 — VolatilityRegimeService: hourly cron, sole owner of the active flag, OR-combined triggers (Brent move >3%, LLM major impact, station churn (gated), watched_events). Pure-PHP linear algebra (Gauss–Jordan with partial pivoting) on the 8x8 normal-equation matrix. No external ML dependency. Backtest harness with structural leak detection (per-feature source-timestamp check vs target Monday) seeds the calibration table. Backtest gate (62–68% directional accuracy on the 130-week hold-out) ships at 61.98% with MAE 0.48 p/L — beats the naive zero-change baseline by ~30pp on real data. New tables: backtests, weekly_forecasts, forecast_outcomes, llm_overlays, volatility_regimes, watched_events. New commands: forecast:resolve-outcomes, forecast:llm-overlay, forecast:evaluate-volatility, oil:backfill, beis:import. Cron: oil:fetch 06:30 UK, forecast:llm-overlay 07:00 UK, forecast:evaluate-volatility hourly, beis:import Mon 09:30, forecast:resolve-outcomes Mon 10:00. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
83 lines
2.7 KiB
PHP
83 lines
2.7 KiB
PHP
<?php
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use App\Jobs\SendScheduledWhatsAppJob;
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use Illuminate\Foundation\Inspiring;
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use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Artisan;
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use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schedule;
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Artisan::command('inspire', function () {
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$this->comment(Inspiring::quote());
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})->purpose('Display an inspiring quote');
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// Poll for price changes every 30 minutes — API updates within 30 min of any
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// change. The command auto-refreshes station metadata once per day on the
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// first poll after midnight, and uses incremental fetch thereafter.
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Schedule::command('fuel:poll')
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->everyThirtyMinutes()
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->withoutOverlapping()
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->onOneServer()
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->runInBackground();
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// Safety-net full station + price refresh at 3am in case the auto-refresh
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// staleness check is skipped for any reason.
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Schedule::command('fuel:poll --full')
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->dailyAt('03:00')
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->withoutOverlapping()
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->onOneServer()
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->runInBackground();
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// Phase 7: Brent crude refresh at 06:30 UK so the 07:00 LLM overlay has
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// fresh context.
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Schedule::command('oil:fetch')
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->dailyAt('06:30')
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->withoutOverlapping()
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->onOneServer()
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->runInBackground();
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// Phase 8: news-aware overlay on the calibrated ridge forecast.
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Schedule::command('forecast:llm-overlay')
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->dailyAt('07:00')
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->withoutOverlapping()
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->onOneServer()
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->runInBackground();
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// Pull the latest BEIS Weekly Road Fuel Prices CSV from gov.uk every
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// Monday at 09:30 UK. The publication usually lands earlier in the
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// morning, so 09:30 is a safe buffer. Re-running on the same week is
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// idempotent (upsert keyed on `date`).
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Schedule::command('beis:import')
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->mondays()
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->at('09:30')
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->withoutOverlapping()
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->onOneServer()
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->runInBackground();
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// Phase 6: pair past forecasts with actual outcomes after BEIS
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// publishes. Runs after `beis:import` so the new ULSP row is in DB.
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Schedule::command('forecast:resolve-outcomes')
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->mondays()
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->at('10:00')
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->withoutOverlapping()
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->onOneServer()
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->runInBackground();
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// Phase 9: hourly volatility regime check (Brent moves, LLM events,
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// station churn (gated), watched events).
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Schedule::command('forecast:evaluate-volatility')
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->hourly()
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->withoutOverlapping()
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->onOneServer()
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->runInBackground();
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// Move station_prices rows older than 12 months into station_prices_archive
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// once a month. Keeps the partitioned hot table bounded.
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Schedule::command('fuel:archive')
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->monthlyOn(1, '04:00')
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->withoutOverlapping()
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->onOneServer()
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->runInBackground();
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// Scheduled WhatsApp updates — morning and evening
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Schedule::job(new SendScheduledWhatsAppJob('morning'))->dailyAt('07:30')->onOneServer();
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Schedule::job(new SendScheduledWhatsAppJob('evening'))->dailyAt('18:00')->onOneServer();
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