02d4c9d888
Establishes core rules and conventions for the FuelAlert Laravel application: architecture patterns (fat services, thin controllers), database schema with partitioned station_prices table, multi-tier notification system with Vonage and OneSignal, 4-signal scoring engine for fuel price recommendations, Stripe subscription tiers, Livewire classic component structure, and Pest testing standards.
77 lines
3.3 KiB
Markdown
77 lines
3.3 KiB
Markdown
# Scoring Engine (AlertScoringService)
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## Purpose
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Produces a "fill up now or wait?" recommendation per user based on their local
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station history. Output is one of: `fill_up`, `wait`, `no_signal`.
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Never guess — stay silent (no_signal) when signals conflict or data is insufficient.
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## The 4 signals (in priority order)
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### Signal 1 — Local price trend (HIGHEST WEIGHT)
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- Query `station_prices` for user's nearest 5 stations (within 5km of user lat/lng)
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- Use last 14 days of history for `e10` (or user's preferred fuel type)
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- Calculate 3-day rolling average vs 7-day rolling average
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- **Falling**: 3-day avg < 7-day avg by ≥ 0.5p → positive wait signal
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- **Rising**: 3-day avg > 7-day avg by ≥ 0.5p → fill_up signal
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- **Flat**: difference < 0.5p → neutral, no signal
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- Weight: 40 points max
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### Signal 2 — Supermarket anchor effect (HIGH WEIGHT)
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- Find nearest supermarket station (is_supermarket = 1) within 10km
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- Check if supermarket cut price in last 48 hours (> 1p drop)
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- Check if nearest non-supermarket stations have NOT yet followed
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- If supermarket cut AND independents haven't moved → strong wait signal
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- Weight: 35 points max
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### Signal 3 — Day-of-week pattern (MEDIUM WEIGHT — needs 8+ weeks data)
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- Per station: average price by day-of-week over last 90 days
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- Only activate if station has 56+ days of history
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- If today is statistically 1.5p+ cheaper than weekly average → mild fill_up
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- If today is statistically 1.5p+ more expensive → mild wait
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- Weight: 15 points max
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### Signal 4 — Brent crude direction (LOW WEIGHT)
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- Fetched daily from FRED API, stored in a simple `brent_prices` table
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- 5-day trend: rising ≥ 3% → mild fill_up pressure; falling ≥ 3% → mild wait
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- Weight: 10 points max
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## Confidence thresholds
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- Score 70–100: strong signal → fire recommendation + notification
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- Score 40–69: weak signal → show in dashboard only, no push/SMS/WhatsApp
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- Score 0–39: no_signal → stay silent entirely
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**Only send notifications when confidence ≥ 70.** Never spam.
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## Output (stored in scoring_results)
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```php
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[
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'recommendation' => 'wait', // fill_up | wait | no_signal
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'confidence' => 78, // 0-100
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'signals' => [
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'trend' => ['direction' => 'falling', 'points' => 32],
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'supermarket' => ['triggered' => true, 'points' => 35],
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'day_pattern' => ['triggered' => false, 'points' => 0],
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'brent' => ['direction' => 'flat', 'points' => 0],
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],
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'local_avg_pence' => 14380, // 143.80p
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'trend_delta' => -2.3, // pence change over 7 days
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]
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```
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## Human-readable reason strings
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Always generate a plain-English reason for the recommendation:
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- "Prices near you have been falling for 6 days. Tesco {station} cut 3p yesterday — independents usually follow within 48 hours."
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- "Prices are rising in your area — filling up today avoids paying more later."
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- "No clear pattern this week — fill up at the cheapest station near you now."
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Reason strings are stored in `scoring_results.signals` JSON and shown in the UI and notifications.
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## Accuracy self-tracking
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After 3 days, check if `wait` recommendation was correct (prices did fall further).
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Store outcome in `scoring_results` for future display: "This signal has been right X% of the time in your area."
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