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Audit items #7 and #5. #7 — BrentPricePredictor::generatePrediction previously wrote both an EWMA row and an LLM row to price_predictions on every run. The downstream OilSignal already prefers llm_with_context > llm > ewma, so the EWMA row was dead weight 95% of the time. Now we try LLM first; if it returns null (no API key, parse failure, etc.) we compute and persist EWMA as a real fallback. This also avoids redundant work on the success path. Updated the "stores both" test to "stores only LLM" — asserts no EWMA row is written when the provider succeeds. #5 — BrentPricePredictor and AnthropicPredictionProvider both had byte-identical computeEwma() methods with identical EWMA_ALPHA = 0.3 constants. Extracted to App\Services\Ewma::compute() and dropped both private methods + their alpha constants. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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