feat: add prediction rebuild design spec — Layer 1 ridge model, LLM news overlay, volatility regime detector

Documents complete replacement of six-signal aggregator with calibrated
ridge forecaster trained on 435 weeks of BEIS pump prices. Five-layer
architecture: weekly baseline (Layer 1), local snapshot (Layer 2),
rule-gated verdict merger (Layer 3), daily LLM news

.claude/rules/api-data.md

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@
 - Base URL: `https://www.fuel-finder.service.gov.uk/api/v1/`
 - Returns: all UK station prices + station metadata (~14,500 stations)
 - Update frequency: stations report within 30 minutes of price change
-- Our polling interval: every 15 minutes via scheduler (incremental), full refresh once daily
+- Our polling interval: every 30 minutes via scheduler (incremental using `effective-start-timestamp`), station metadata auto-refreshed once per day on the first poll after midnight
 
 ### Authentication
 
@@ -35,24 +35,34 @@ Content-Type: application/json
 - Include token in every API request: `Authorization: Bearer {token}`
 
 #### Endpoints
-- `GET /api/v1/pfs/fuel-prices?batch-number` — all/incremental station prices
+- `GET /api/v1/pfs/fuel-prices?batch-number={n}` — all station prices (500 stations per batch)
-- `GET /api/v1/pfs?batch-number` — all/incremental station metadata
+- `GET /api/v1/pfs/fuel-prices?batch-number={n}&effective-start-timestamp=YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS` — incremental, only prices changed since timestamp
+- `GET /api/v1/pfs?batch-number={n}` — all station metadata (500 per batch)
+- `GET /api/v1/pfs?batch-number={n}&effective-start-timestamp=YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS` — incremental station metadata
 
 **Fuel prices response fields** (array of stations):
-- `node_id` — station identifier
+- `node_id`, `public_phone_number`, `trading_name` — station identifiers
-- `trading_name` — station name
 - `fuel_prices[]` — array of `{fuel_type, price, price_last_updated, price_change_effective_timestamp}`
-- Fuel types: `E5`, `E10`, `B7_STANDARD`, `B7_PREMIUM`, `B10`, `HVO`
+- Fuel types (API casing): `E5`, `E10`, `B7_Standard`, `B7_Premium`, `B10`, `HVO` — lowercased on ingest via `FuelType::fromApiValue()`
 - Price is a float (e.g. `159.9` = 159.9p) — multiply × 100 and store as integer pence
 
 **Station metadata response fields** (array of stations):
-- `node_id`, `trading_name`, `brand_name`
+- `node_id`, `trading_name`, `brand_name`, `is_same_trading_and_brand_name`, `public_phone_number`
 - `is_supermarket_service_station`, `is_motorway_service_station`
-- `temporary_closure`, `permanent_closure`
+- `temporary_closure`, `permanent_closure`, `permanent_closure_date`
-- `location` — `{address_line_1, city, postcode, latitude, longitude}`
+- `location` — `{address_line_1, address_line_2, city, county, country, postcode, latitude, longitude}`
-- `amenities` — string array (e.g. `car_wash`, `adblue_pumps`)
+- `amenities` — **OBJECT** with boolean flags: `{adblue_pumps, adblue_packaged, lpg_pumps, car_wash, air_pump_or_screenwash, water_filling, twenty_four_hour_fuel, customer_toilets}`. Normalised at ingest to a flat array of enabled keys.
-- `fuel_types` — string array of available fuel types
+- `fuel_types` — **OBJECT** with boolean flags: `{E10, E5, B7_Standard, B7_Premium, B10, HVO}`. Normalised at ingest to a flat array of enabled keys.
-- `opening_times` — per-day open/close times (not used in scoring)
+- `opening_times` — `usual_days.{monday..sunday}.{open, close, is_24_hours}` + `bank_holidays.type.{open_time, close_time, is_24_hours}`. Stored as raw JSON, not used in scoring.
+
+### Required-field validation
+Stations missing any of `node_id`, `trading_name`, `location.postcode`, `location.latitude`, `location.longitude` are dropped at ingest with a warning. Price rows missing any of `fuel_type`, `price`, `price_last_updated`, `price_change_effective_timestamp` are skipped silently.
+
+### Incremental polling (FuelPriceService::pollPrices)
+On each successful poll the wall-clock start time is cached under `fuel_finder_last_price_poll_at` (forever). The next poll sends this as `effective-start-timestamp`. Cold start (cache miss) performs a full fetch.
+
+### FK safety
+Price batches are filtered against the `stations` table before insert — any station not yet in `stations` is skipped and logged. This guards against new stations appearing in the prices endpoint before the next metadata refresh picks them up.
 
 ### FuelPriceService responsibilities
 1. Fetch OAuth token (cache it)
@@ -70,7 +80,7 @@ for that `(station_id, fuel_type)` combination. Avoids row explosion on unchange
 ```
 FUEL_FINDER_CLIENT_ID=
 FUEL_FINDER_CLIENT_SECRET=
-FUEL_FINDER_BASE_URL=https://api.fuel-finder.service.gov.uk
+FUEL_FINDER_BASE_URL=https://www.fuel-finder.service.gov.uk/api/v1
 ```
 
 ## Postcodes.io — location resolution

.claude/rules/payments.md

@@ -4,51 +4,121 @@
 
 Laravel Cashier (Stripe). Never implement custom billing logic — use Cashier methods.
 
-## Stripe products
+## Source-of-truth spec
+
+`docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-stripe-subscription-lifecycle-design.md`
+defines the full subscription lifecycle. This file is a quick-reference; the
+spec document is authoritative on any contradiction.
+
+## Stripe products & prices
+
+Three recurring subscription products, each with monthly and annual prices:
 
-Three recurring subscription products (monthly):
 - `basic` — £0.99/mo
 - `plus`  — £2.49/mo
 - `pro`   — £3.99/mo
 
-Price IDs stored in `config/services.php` under `stripe.prices.*`, loaded from .env:
+Price IDs stored in `config/services.php` under `stripe.prices.*`, loaded from `.env`:
+
 ```
-STRIPE_PRICES_BASIC=price_xxx
+STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_MONTHLY=price_xxx
-STRIPE_PRICES_PLUS=price_xxx
+STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_ANNUAL=price_xxx
-STRIPE_PRICES_PRO=price_xxx
+STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_MONTHLY=price_xxx
+STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_ANNUAL=price_xxx
+STRIPE_PRICE_PRO_MONTHLY=price_xxx
+STRIPE_PRICE_PRO_ANNUAL=price_xxx
 ```
 
-## Tier helpers (SubscriptionService)
+Resolution from a Cashier subscription's Stripe price ID to a plan row is done
+in `Plan::resolveForUser()` — never hand-code tier lookups elsewhere.
 
-```php
+## Tier resolution
-public function tier(User $user): string
-// Returns 'free' | 'basic' | 'plus' | 'pro'
 
-public function canReceiveSms(User $user): bool
+Use `PlanFeatures::for($user)->tier()` — returns `'free' | 'basic' | 'plus' | 'pro'`.
-// true if tier is plus or pro
+Never inspect `$user->subscribed(...)` directly in components, notifications, or
-
+jobs. `PlanFeatures` is the single source of entitlement truth.
-public function smsRemainingThisMonth(User $user): int
-// checks alerts table count for current month
-```
-
-Never check tier inline in components or notification classes — always use SubscriptionService.
 
 ## Cashier conventions
 
-- Billable model: `User` (add `use Billable` trait)
+- Billable model: `User` (uses `Billable` trait)
-- Webhook route: `POST /stripe/webhook` — handled by Cashier automatically
+- Webhook route: `POST /stripe/webhook` — auto-registered by Cashier
 - Webhook secret in `.env` as `STRIPE_WEBHOOK_SECRET`
-- Always handle `customer.subscription.deleted` to downgrade user to free tier
+- `STRIPE_KEY` and `STRIPE_SECRET` also required
-- Trial: none for v1
+- `CASHIER_CURRENCY=gbp`
+- Trial period: none
 
-## Upgrade / downgrade flow
+## User-facing flows — all via Stripe Customer Portal
 
-- User upgrades in account settings Livewire component
+**The Stripe-hosted Customer Billing Portal handles every subscription
-- Swap plan with `$user->subscription()->swap($newPriceId)`
+management action.** Do not build custom Livewire upgrade/downgrade UIs.
-- Cashier handles proration automatically
+
-- On downgrade to free: cancel subscription, remove WhatsApp/SMS notification preference
+| Flow | Path |
+|---|---|
+| Sign up for paid tier | Pricing page → `GET /billing/checkout/{tier}/{cadence}` → Stripe Checkout |
+| Upgrade | Pricing page → `GET /billing/portal` → Stripe Portal → pick higher plan → Stripe prorates, charges difference immediately |
+| Downgrade | Stripe Portal → pick lower plan → Stripe schedules change at period end |
+| Cancel | Stripe Portal → cancel → `cancel_at_period_end=true`; features stay until period end |
+| Update card | Stripe Portal, or hosted link in Stripe's transactional dunning email |
+| Reactivate after cancel / post-grace | Pricing page → Checkout (new subscription) |
+
+Annual downgrades take effect at the end of the year — no mid-term refunds.
+
+## Webhook handling
+
+Single consolidated listener `HandleStripeWebhook` bound to Cashier's
+`WebhookReceived` event in `AppServiceProvider`. Routes on `$event->payload['type']`:
+
+| Event | Behaviour |
+|---|---|
+| `customer.subscription.created` | Bust `plan_for_user_{id}` cache |
+| `customer.subscription.updated` | Bust cache |
+| `customer.subscription.deleted` | Downgrade to free, disable WhatsApp + SMS prefs, clear `grace_period_until`, bust cache |
+| `invoice.payment_succeeded` | Clear `grace_period_until`, bust cache |
+| `invoice.payment_failed` | Set `grace_period_until = now()->addDays(5)`, queue day-3 + day-5 branded reminder mailables |
+
+All branches must be idempotent — Stripe retries failed webhook deliveries.
+
+`invoice.upcoming` is intentionally not handled.
+
+## Payment failure & grace period
+
+5-day grace window. Stripe is configured (dashboard) to retry on days 1, 3, 5
+and **cancel the subscription** after the final failure.
+
+- Features stay ON during grace — `past_due` is treated as subscribed by
+  Cashier, so `PlanFeatures::tier()` keeps returning the paid tier.
+- After day 5 Stripe cancels → `customer.subscription.deleted` → downgrade.
+- User can pay at any time via Stripe's dunning email link or the Customer
+  Portal — on success, grace is cleared automatically by the webhook.
+
+## Dunning emails
+
+- **Stripe sends:** payment-failed "update your card", successful-payment
+  receipts, upcoming-renewal reminders. Configure in Stripe dashboard.
+- **We send:** branded reminder mailables on day 3 and day 5 after a
+  payment failure. Both mailables self-cancel by checking
+  `$this->user->grace_period_until === null` before sending — simpler than
+  cancelling queued jobs when payment recovers.
+
+## Data model additions
+
+- `users.grace_period_until` — nullable timestamp. Set on
+  `invoice.payment_failed`, cleared on `invoice.payment_succeeded` or
+  `customer.subscription.deleted`. Drives the dashboard past-due banner.
+
+No other schema additions. Cashier + Stripe are the source of truth for
+subscription state.
+
+## VAT / Stripe Tax
+
+Not enabled for v1. Revisit before £90k/year turnover (~£1.88k/month at
+£3.99 avg, or ~470 paying pro users).
 
 ## Stripe test mode
 
 Use Stripe test keys in local `.env`. Never commit real Stripe keys.
-Test cards: 4242424242424242 (success), 4000000000000002 (decline).
+
+Test cards:
+- `4242 4242 4242 4242` — success
+- `4000 0000 0000 0002` — generic decline
+- `4000 0000 0000 0341` — renewal charge fails (use to test dunning flow)

.claude/rules/prediction.md

@@ -0,0 +1,211 @@
+# Prediction Engine
+
+The "should I fill up now or wait?" recommendation that drives the headline,
+notifications, and the entire product. Lives in `app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php`
+and is called from `Api\PredictionController`.
+
+> The prediction is the product's selling point. Confidence calibration matters
+> as much as direction — a "Wait — prices falling" headline at 30% confidence is
+> worse than no recommendation at all.
+
+## Output
+
+`predict(?float $lat, ?float $lng): array` returns:
+
+| Key | Type | Notes |
+|---|---|---|
+| `fuel_type` | string | currently always `'e10'` |
+| `current_avg` | float | current price avg in pence (regional 50km if coords given, else national) |
+| `predicted_direction` | `'up' | 'down' | 'stable'` | aggregated vote |
+| `predicted_change_pence` | float | `slope × 7` — pence change projected over the prediction horizon |
+| `confidence_score` | float (0–100) | see "Confidence" below |
+| `confidence_label` | `'low' | 'medium' | 'high'` | bucketing of `confidence_score` |
+| `action` | `'fill_now' | 'wait' | 'no_signal'` | UI action mapped from direction |
+| `reasoning` | string | concatenation of enabled signal `detail` fields, or action-aware fallback |
+| `prediction_horizon_days` | int | `7` |
+| `region_key` | `'national' | 'regional'` | depends on whether coords were passed |
+| `methodology` | string | identifier for backtesting/auditing |
+| `weekly_summary` | object | yesterday/today/tomorrow + 7-day series (see below) |
+| `signals` | object | per-signal breakdown (see below) |
+
+## Signals
+
+Each signal returns `{score, confidence, direction, detail, data_points, enabled}`.
+
+| Signal | Source | Enabled when | Score formula |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| `trend` | regression on daily national avg, 5-day adaptive → 14-day | ≥2 daily averages and R² ≥ 0.5 | `min(1, |slope| / SLOPE_SATURATION_PENCE) × sign(slope)` (saturates at `0.5p/day`) |
+| `day_of_week` | weekday averages over last 90 days | `unique_days ≥ DAY_OF_WEEK_MIN_DAYS` (21) | `±1` if today ≥1.5p above/below week avg, else `0`; confidence scales with `unique_days/90` |
+| `brand_behaviour` | supermarket vs major regression slopes over 7 days | both groups have ≥2 data points and divergence ≥1.0p | `±1` if leader is up/down |
+| `regional_momentum` | regression on stations within 50km, 14 days | coords provided + ≥3 daily averages within radius | `±0.7` |
+| `price_stickiness` | mean station hold duration over 30 days | ≥10 stations with ≥2 changes | `±0.1` confidence modifier |
+| `oil` | latest `price_predictions` row covering today or later | a row exists | `±1` if rising/falling, `0` if flat; confidence = stored `confidence/100` |
+| `national_momentum` | reserved | always disabled today | n/a |
+
+### Oil signal — source preference
+
+`computeOilSignal()` picks the freshest row in this order:
+
+1. `source = 'llm_with_context'`
+2. `source = 'llm'`
+3. `source = 'ewma'`
+
+`OilPriceService` (in `app/Services/OilPriceService.php` and friends) populates
+this table daily at 7am via the scheduler. Cap: LLM confidence is capped at 85,
+EWMA at 65 (see `.claude/rules/api-data.md`).
+
+The Brent oil signal is the **single biggest unlock** for confidence — it
+captures world-news context (OPEC, geopolitical) that pure local price history
+can't see.
+
+### Day-of-week threshold
+
+The original spec said 56 days. Lowered to 21 because:
+- The signal's `confidence` is already `min(1, unique_days / 90)` — a 21-day
+  signal naturally contributes only `~0.23` confidence and lifts as more data
+  accumulates.
+- 56 days delays the signal so long it might as well not exist for new users.
+
+## Aggregator
+
+`aggregateSignals(signals, hasCoordinates)` returns `[direction, confidence_score]`.
+
+### Weights
+
+```
+National (no coords):
+  trend             0.30
+  oil               0.25
+  dayOfWeek         0.20
+  brandBehaviour    0.15
+  stickiness        0.10
+                    ----
+                    1.00
+
+Regional (with coords):
+  regionalMomentum  0.35
+  oil               0.20
+  trend             0.15
+  dayOfWeek         0.15
+  brandBehaviour    0.10
+  stickiness        0.05
+                    ----
+                    1.00
+```
+
+### Direction
+
+```
+directional_score = Σ(score × signal_confidence × weight)  // only signals with direction ≠ stable
+directional_weight = Σ(weight)                              // only signals with direction ≠ stable
+
+normalised = directional_score / directional_weight   (0 if directional_weight ≈ 0)
+
+direction = 'up'    if normalised >=  0.1
+            'down'  if normalised <= -0.1
+            'stable' otherwise
+```
+
+**Stable signals do not dilute the direction vote.** They are excluded from both
+the numerator and denominator. This is a key fix — previously a single weak
+trend signal could be cancelled out by three "stable" signals adding weight
+without contributing direction.
+
+### Confidence
+
+```
+avg_signal_confidence = Σ(signal_confidence × weight) / Σ(weight)   // all enabled signals
+agreement = computeAgreement(signals, weights, final_direction)     // 0..1
+
+confidence_score = avg_signal_confidence × agreement × 100   (capped at 100)
+```
+
+**`avg_signal_confidence`** is how confident the individual signals are in
+their own readings (R², sample size, model confidence). Stable signals DO
+contribute here — knowing prices are stable is itself a confident answer.
+
+**`agreement`** measures how the signals line up with the chosen direction:
+- aligned signal: full credit (`signal_confidence × weight`)
+- one side stable, other directional: half credit
+- opposing signals: no credit
+- final score: `Σ credit / Σ max_credit`
+
+This separation is the second key fix. Previously `confidence = |normalised| × 100`
+conflated "the signals point strongly somewhere" with "we're sure". Now:
+- Strong signals all agreeing → high `confidence_score`
+- Strong signals disagreeing → low `confidence_score`
+- Weak signals → low `confidence_score` (via low individual confidences)
+
+### Confidence labels
+
+| `confidence_score` | `confidence_label` | UI behaviour |
+|---|---|---|
+| ≥ 70 | `high` | fire notification when allowed |
+| 40–69 | `medium` | dashboard only |
+| < 40 | `low` | dashboard only |
+
+## Reasoning
+
+`buildReasoning()` joins `detail` strings from enabled signals. If none have
+material content, it falls back to an **action-aware** sentence:
+
+| `direction` / `action` | Fallback |
+|---|---|
+| `up` / `fill_now` | "Mild upward signals — top up soon if you're nearby." |
+| `down` / `wait` | "Mild downward signals — wait a day or two if your tank can hold." |
+| `stable` / `no_signal` | "No clear pattern — fill up at the cheapest station near you now." |
+
+The earlier hard-coded "fill up" fallback contradicted "Wait — prices falling"
+headlines and is no longer used.
+
+## Weekly summary
+
+`computeWeeklySummary()` returns the Y/T/T strip + last-7-days numbers:
+
+| Field | Meaning |
+|---|---|
+| `yesterday_avg` / `today_avg` | regional (50km) → national fallback |
+| `tomorrow_estimated_avg` | `today_avg + trend.slope` (slope is 0 if trend disabled) |
+| `yesterday_today_delta_pence` | `today − yesterday`; sign tells you which was cheaper |
+| `last_7_days_series` | array of `{date, avg}`, one entry per day with data |
+| `last_7_days_change_pence` | `series[last].avg − series[0].avg` |
+| `cheapest_day` / `priciest_day` | min/max of the series |
+| `is_regional` | `true` only if regional data was actually used; `false` after national fallback |
+
+## API gate
+
+The prediction is **embedded in the `/api/stations` response** under the
+`prediction` key — there is no standalone prediction endpoint. The same payload
+shape ships back regardless of route, but the gate runs server-side:
+`PlanFeatures::for($user)->can('ai_predictions')`.
+
+- ai_predictions allowed (plus, pro): full multi-signal payload
+  (`fuel_type`, `current_avg`, `predicted_direction`, `confidence_score`,
+  `reasoning`, `weekly_summary`, `signals`, …)
+- otherwise (free, basic, guest): stripped teaser
+  `{fuel_type, predicted_direction, tier_locked: true}` for the upsell card
+
+Bundling into `/api/stations` ties prediction availability to a real station
+search — there is no way to scrape the prediction independently. Don't add a
+separate prediction route or accept a request body without coords; the
+prediction is always computed alongside a search.
+
+## What never to do
+
+- Don't introduce a new signal without giving it `enabled`, `confidence`, and a
+  weight in both national + regional weight maps.
+- Don't read `brent_prices` directly from the prediction service — go through
+  `price_predictions`. The prediction table is the source of truth for
+  oil-direction-as-a-signal.
+- Don't reintroduce a confidence formula that uses `|directional_score|` — that
+  conflates magnitude with sureness.
+- Don't add a stable-direction signal to `directional_weight` — stable signals
+  must not dilute direction.
+
+---
+paths:
+  - "app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php"
+  - "app/Http/Controllers/Api/StationController.php"
+  - "tests/Unit/Services/NationalFuelPredictionServiceTest.php"
+  - "tests/Feature/Api/StationControllerTest.php"
+---

.claude/rules/tiers.md

@@ -0,0 +1,409 @@
+# Tier & Entitlement System — Claude Code Rules
+
+## Overview
+
+FuelAlert uses a plan-based entitlement system. Every decision about what a user
+can receive, on which channel, at what frequency, is resolved through a single
+`PlanFeatures` service. Nothing else makes entitlement decisions.
+
+Users subscribe via Stripe (Laravel Cashier). The active plan is resolved from
+the Stripe subscription's price ID, mapped to a `Plan` model row.
+
+---
+
+## Tiers
+
+| Tier  | Price  | Stripe Price Env Key          |
+|-------|--------|-------------------------------|
+| free  | £0     | —                             |
+| basic | £0.99  | `STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC`          |
+| plus  | £2.49  | `STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS`           |
+| pro   | £3.99  | `STRIPE_PRICE_PRO`            |
+
+A user with no active Cashier subscription is always resolved as `free`.
+
+---
+
+## Fuel Types
+
+Six fuel types exist across the app:
+
+```
+E10, E5, B7_STANDARD, B7_PREMIUM, B10, HVO
+```
+
+All six are available to all tiers. The restriction is quantity only:
+
+| Tier          | Max tracked fuel types |
+|---------------|------------------------|
+| free          | 1                      |
+| basic         | 1                      |
+| plus          | 1                      |
+| pro           | unlimited (null)       |
+
+---
+
+## Notification Channels
+
+| Channel   | free          | basic        | plus         | pro          |
+|-----------|---------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|
+| email     | weekly digest | daily        | ✓ triggered  | ✓ triggered  |
+| push      | ✗             | ✓ daily      | ✓ triggered  | ✓ triggered  |
+| whatsapp  | ✗             | ✓ daily      | ✓ triggered  | ✓ triggered  |
+| sms       | ✗             | ✗            | ✓ max 1/day  | ✓ max 3/day  |
+
+WhatsApp also supports scheduled updates (morning + evening) independent of
+price triggers — available to any tier that has WhatsApp enabled.
+
+Channel daily limits (`sms_daily_limit`, `whatsapp_daily_limit`) are enforced
+by counting rows in `notification_log` for `(user_id, channel, DATE(created_at))`.
+
+---
+
+## Notification Triggers
+
+| Trigger              | Description                                              |
+|----------------------|----------------------------------------------------------|
+| `price_threshold`    | Price drops at or below the user's saved threshold       |
+| `score_change`       | Fill-up score flips good↔bad for a fuel type             |
+| `scheduled_morning`  | WhatsApp scheduled update — fired by scheduler           |
+| `scheduled_evening`  | WhatsApp scheduled update — fired by scheduler           |
+
+---
+
+## Enum
+
+Use a `PlanTier` backed enum at `app/Enums/PlanTier.php`:
+
+```php
+enum PlanTier: string
+{
+    case Free  = 'free';
+    case Basic = 'basic';
+    case Plus  = 'plus';
+    case Pro   = 'pro';
+}
+```
+
+Reference `PlanTier::Free->value` everywhere, never raw strings.
+
+
+## Stripe Price IDs
+
+Each tier has two prices:
+
+| Tier  | Monthly Env Key                | Annual Env Key                |
+|-------|--------------------------------|-------------------------------|
+| basic | `STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_MONTHLY`   | `STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_ANNUAL`   |
+| plus  | `STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_MONTHLY`    | `STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_ANNUAL`    |
+| pro   | `STRIPE_PRICE_PRO_MONTHLY`     | `STRIPE_PRICE_PRO_ANNUAL`     |
+
+## Database Schema
+
+### `plans` table
+
+```
+id                          unsignedBigInteger PK
+name                        string              — free | basic | plus | pro
+stripe_price_id_monthly     string nullable     — Cashier price ID for monthly billing
+stripe_price_id_annual      string nullable     — Cashier price ID for annual billing
+features                    json                — see shape below
+active                      boolean default true
+timestamps
+```
+
+**`features` JSON shape:**
+
+```json
+{
+  "fuel_types": {
+    "max": 1
+  },
+  "email": {
+    "enabled": true,
+    "frequency": "triggered"
+  },
+  "push": {
+    "enabled": true,
+    "frequency": "triggered"
+  },
+  "whatsapp": {
+    "enabled": true,
+    "daily_limit": 5,
+    "scheduled_updates": 2
+  },
+  "sms": {
+    "enabled": true,
+    "daily_limit": 3
+  },
+  "ai_predictions": true,
+  "price_threshold": true,
+  "score_alerts": true
+}
+```
+
+`fuel_types.max: null` means unlimited. `email.frequency` values: `weekly_digest`,
+`daily`, `triggered`. `push.frequency` values: `none` (when disabled), `daily`,
+`triggered`. All boolean features default `false` on free.
+
+`database/seeders/PlanSeeder.php` is the source of truth. Per-tier reality:
+
+- `price_threshold` and `score_alerts` are **enabled on basic, plus, and pro** (not plus-only).
+- `ai_predictions` is **plus and pro only**.
+- `whatsapp` and `sms` always carry `daily_limit` (and whatsapp carries `scheduled_updates`)
+  even when `enabled: false` — set to `0` on disabled tiers.
+
+> Deeper per-tier feature flags (history window, prediction level, leaderboard size,
+> saved stations, fuel log caps, brand comparison, route planner, family sharing) are
+> defined in `docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-15-tier-features-design.md` — that spec
+> is the source of truth for entitlements beyond notification channels.
+
+### `user_notification_preferences` table
+
+```
+id          unsignedBigInteger PK
+user_id     unsignedBigInteger FK users.id cascadeDelete
+channel     string              — email | push | whatsapp | sms
+fuel_type   string              — E10 | E5 | B7_STANDARD | B7_PREMIUM | B10 | HVO
+enabled     boolean default true
+timestamps
+unique([user_id, channel, fuel_type])
+```
+
+The user opts channels in/out here. The tier is the ceiling — if the plan does
+not allow a channel, this preference is ignored regardless of its value.
+
+### `notification_log` table
+
+```
+id              unsignedBigInteger PK
+user_id         unsignedBigInteger FK users.id cascadeDelete
+channel         string
+trigger_type    string              — price_threshold | score_change | scheduled_morning | scheduled_evening
+fuel_type       string
+price           decimal(8,3) nullable
+sent            boolean
+missed_reason   string nullable     — daily_limit | tier_restricted | user_disabled
+created_at      timestamp
+```
+
+No `updated_at` — this is append-only. Index on `(user_id, channel, created_at)`
+for daily limit queries. Index on `(user_id, sent, created_at)` for dashboard
+missed-count queries.
+
+---
+
+## Models
+
+### `Plan`
+
+- Casts `features` to `array`.
+- Has a static `resolveForUser(User $user): Plan` method — looks up the user's
+  active Cashier subscription price ID, matches to either `stripe_price_id_monthly`
+  or `stripe_price_id_annual`, falls back to the `free` plan row.
+- Cache the resolved plan: `Cache::tags(['plans'])->remember("plan_for_user_{$user->id}", 3600, ...)`.
+- Bust `Cache::tags(['plans'])` in an Eloquent `saved` observer on `Plan`.
+
+### `UserNotificationPreference`
+
+- `belongsTo(User::class)`
+- Scope: `scopeEnabled($query)` — where enabled = true
+- Scope: `scopeForChannel($query, string $channel)`
+- Scope: `scopeForFuelType($query, string $fuelType)`
+
+### `NotificationLog`
+
+- `belongsTo(User::class)`
+- Scope: `scopeSentToday($query, string $channel)` — counts today's sent rows
+- Scope: `scopeMissed($query)` — where sent = false
+- Never update rows — only insert.
+
+---
+
+## `PlanFeatures` Service
+
+Located at `app/Services/PlanFeatures.php`.
+
+```php
+PlanFeatures::for($user)->canUseChannel('sms')            // bool — tier allows it
+PlanFeatures::for($user)->canSendNow('sms')               // bool — tier allows + under daily limit
+PlanFeatures::for($user)->channelsFor('price_threshold')  // string[] — allowed + user-enabled + under limit
+PlanFeatures::for($user)->canTrackFuelType(string $type)  // bool — under max
+PlanFeatures::for($user)->trackedFuelTypeCount()          // int
+PlanFeatures::for($user)->fuelTypeLimit()                 // int|null
+PlanFeatures::for($user)->can('ai_predictions')           // bool — generic feature flag
+PlanFeatures::for($user)->missedToday(string $channel)    // int — for dashboard
+PlanFeatures::for($user)->missedThisMonth(string $channel)// int — for digest email
+PlanFeatures::for($user)->tier()                          // string — free|basic|plus|pro
+```
+
+**Rules:**
+- `canSendNow` always checks both the plan cap AND the live `notification_log`
+  count for today. Never skip either check.
+- `channelsFor($triggerType)` is the method used by the dispatch job. It returns
+  only channels that pass: tier allows → user has enabled → daily limit not hit.
+- The service must never throw. If the plan cannot be resolved, treat as `free`.
+- The service is the **only** place daily limit logic lives. Jobs and controllers
+  call `PlanFeatures`, never query `notification_log` directly for limit checks.
+
+---
+
+## `RequiresFeature` Middleware
+
+Registered as `feature` in `bootstrap/app.php`.
+
+```php
+// Usage in routes
+Route::get('/predictions', PredictionsController::class)
+    ->middleware('feature:ai_predictions');
+```
+
+Returns `403 { "error": "upgrade_required", "feature": "ai_predictions" }` if
+`PlanFeatures::for($request->user())->can($feature)` is false.
+
+Only use for route-level feature gates. Channel-level logic stays in the job.
+
+---
+
+## Notification Dispatch Flow
+
+### Price update (every 15 min)
+
+```
+PriceUpdated event (fired by polling job)
+  └── ProcessPriceAlerts job (queued, single instance via WithoutOverlapping)
+        ├── Find users whose threshold >= new price for this fuel type
+        ├── Find users subscribed to score_change if score flipped
+        ├── Chunk users → dispatch DispatchUserNotification job per user
+```
+
+### `DispatchUserNotification` job
+
+```
+1. Load plan via Plan::resolveForUser($user)             — cached
+2. Instantiate PlanFeatures::for($user)
+3. $channels = $features->channelsFor($triggerType)     — filtered list
+4. foreach $channels as $channel:
+     a. Send via the appropriate Laravel Notification class
+     b. Log to notification_log (sent: true)
+5. foreach skipped channels (tier allows but limit hit):
+     a. Log to notification_log (sent: false, missed_reason: daily_limit)
+6. foreach tier-blocked channels the user had enabled in prefs:
+     a. Log to notification_log (sent: false, missed_reason: tier_restricted)
+```
+
+Do not log channels the user has manually disabled (`user_disabled` would be
+noise — those are intentional).
+
+### Scheduled WhatsApp updates
+
+Two scheduler entries:
+
+```php
+Schedule::job(SendScheduledWhatsApp::class, 'morning')->dailyAt('07:30');
+Schedule::job(SendScheduledWhatsApp::class, 'evening')->dailyAt('18:00');
+```
+
+`SendScheduledWhatsApp` queries all users where:
+- Plan has `whatsapp.scheduled_updates > 0`
+- User has whatsapp preference enabled
+- `canSendNow('whatsapp')` is true at dispatch time
+
+Same logging rules apply.
+
+---
+
+## Filament `PlanResource`
+
+Located in the admin panel. Edits the `features` JSON column using explicit form
+fields — never a raw key-value editor.
+
+**Form fields:**
+
+```
+Section: Fuel Types
+  - NumberInput fuel_types.max  (null = unlimited, label: "Max fuel types — leave blank for unlimited")
+
+Section: Email
+  - Toggle   email.enabled
+  - Select   email.frequency   options: weekly_digest | daily | triggered
+
+Section: Push
+  - Toggle   push.enabled
+
+Section: WhatsApp
+  - Toggle   whatsapp.enabled
+  - NumberInput whatsapp.daily_limit
+  - NumberInput whatsapp.scheduled_updates
+
+Section: SMS
+  - Toggle   sms.enabled
+  - NumberInput sms.daily_limit
+
+Section: Features
+  - Toggle   ai_predictions
+  - Toggle   price_threshold
+  - Toggle   score_alerts
+```
+
+On save, bust `Cache::tags(['plans'])`.
+
+Do not allow deleting plan rows — disable the `DeleteAction` on the resource.
+Do not allow creating new plan rows from the UI — the four tiers are seeded.
+
+---
+
+## Filament Dashboard Widget — Missed Notifications
+
+A `StatsOverviewWidget` on the user detail page (or a standalone widget) showing:
+
+```
+SMS missed today:        3   [Upgrade to Pro]
+WhatsApp missed today:   0
+Total missed this month: 12
+```
+
+Data sourced from `NotificationLog::scopeMissed()` queries. This data also feeds
+the weekly/monthly digest email — the mailable receives the counts and renders
+a "you missed X alerts — upgrade" block.
+
+---
+
+## Seeder
+
+A `PlanSeeder` must exist that creates or updates all four plan rows with correct
+default feature values. It must be idempotent (`updateOrCreate` on `name`).
+Run as part of `DatabaseSeeder` in production-safe seeders.
+
+```php
+php artisan db:seed --class=PlanSeeder
+```
+
+---
+
+## Testing Expectations
+
+Every entitlement check must have a Pest feature test:
+
+- `canUseChannel` returns false when tier doesn't allow it
+- `canSendNow` returns false when daily limit is reached
+- `channelsFor` returns correct filtered list for each tier
+- `canTrackFuelType` enforces max correctly, null = unlimited
+- Middleware returns 403 with correct JSON for missing feature
+- `DispatchUserNotification` job logs missed_reason correctly
+- `PlanSeeder` is idempotent
+
+Use factories for `Plan`, `User`, `UserNotificationPreference`, `NotificationLog`.
+The `Plan` factory should accept a `tier` state: `Plan::factory()->pro()->create()`.
+
+---
+
+## What Must Never Happen
+
+- Never query `notification_log` for limit checks outside `PlanFeatures`
+- Never hardcode tier names as strings outside `Plan::TIERS` constant or an Enum
+- Never send a notification without logging it
+- Never bypass `PlanFeatures` in a job or controller "just this once"
+- Never allow the `features` JSON to be partially saved — always merge full shape
+- Never add a new feature to the JSON without adding a corresponding method to
+  `PlanFeatures` and updating the `PlanSeeder`

.claude/settings.json

@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+{
+    "permissions": {
+        "deny": [
+            "Read(./.env)",
+            "Read(.env)",
+            "Bash(cat .env)",
+            "Bash(cat ./.env)",
+            "Bash(head .env)",
+            "Bash(head ./.env)",
+            "Bash(tail .env)",
+            "Bash(tail ./.env)",
+            "Bash(less .env)",
+            "Bash(less ./.env)",
+            "Bash(more .env)",
+            "Bash(more ./.env)",
+            "Bash(grep * .env)",
+            "Bash(grep * ./.env)",
+            "Bash(rg * .env)",
+            "Bash(rg * ./.env)",
+            "Bash(awk * .env)",
+            "Bash(awk * ./.env)",
+            "Bash(php artisan migrate:fresh)",
+            "Bash(php artisan migrate:fresh *)",
+            "Bash(php artisan migrate:reset)",
+            "Bash(php artisan migrate:reset *)",
+            "Bash(php artisan db:wipe)",
+            "Bash(php artisan db:wipe *)"
+        ]
+    }
+}

.env.example

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
-APP_NAME=Laravel
+APP_NAME="Fuel Finder"
 APP_ENV=local
 APP_KEY=
 APP_DEBUG=true
-APP_URL=http://localhost
+APP_URL=http://fuel-price.test
 
 APP_LOCALE=en
 APP_FALLBACK_LOCALE=en
@@ -20,18 +20,18 @@ LOG_STACK=single
 LOG_DEPRECATIONS_CHANNEL=null
 LOG_LEVEL=debug
 
-DB_CONNECTION=sqlite
+DB_CONNECTION=mysql
-# DB_HOST=127.0.0.1
+ DB_HOST=127.0.0.1
-# DB_PORT=3306
+ DB_PORT=3306
-# DB_DATABASE=laravel
+ DB_DATABASE=fuel-price
-# DB_USERNAME=root
+ DB_USERNAME=fuel-price
-# DB_PASSWORD=
+ DB_PASSWORD=password
 
 SESSION_DRIVER=database
 SESSION_LIFETIME=120
 SESSION_ENCRYPT=false
 SESSION_PATH=/
-SESSION_DOMAIN=null
+SESSION_DOMAIN=.fuel-price.test
 
 BROADCAST_CONNECTION=log
 FILESYSTEM_DISK=local
@@ -64,4 +64,37 @@ AWS_USE_PATH_STYLE_ENDPOINT=false
 
 VITE_APP_NAME="${APP_NAME}"
 
-FUELALERT_API_KEY=
+FUEL_FINDER_CLIENT_ID=
+FUEL_FINDER_CLIENT_SECRET=
+FUEL_FINDER_BASE_URL=https://www.fuel-finder.service.gov.uk/api/v1
+
+ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=
+ANTHROPIC_MODEL=claude-haiku-4-5
+
+FRED_API_KEY=
+
+ONESIGNAL_APP_ID=
+ONESIGNAL_API_KEY=
+
+VONAGE_KEY=
+VONAGE_SECRET=
+VONAGE_WHATSAPP_FROM=
+VONAGE_SMS_FROM=FuelAlert
+API_SECRET_KEY=
+EIA_API_KEY=
+
+LLM_PREDICTION_PROVIDER=anthropic
+
+STRIPE_KEY=
+STRIPE_SECRET=
+STRIPE_WEBHOOK_SECRET=
+CASHIER_CURRENCY=gbp
+
+STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_MONTHLY=price_1TM3cwJuhjW3IKHlJCHz0xmU
+STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_ANNUAL=price_1TM3nlJuhjW3IKHlwcHF5W9v
+STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_MONTHLY=price_1TM3oqJuhjW3IKHlbQUMhrnm
+STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_ANNUAL=price_1TM3pXJuhjW3IKHlfQenHsf1
+STRIPE_PRICE_PRO_MONTHLY=
+STRIPE_PRICE_PRO_ANNUAL=
+
+SANCTUM_STATEFUL_DOMAINS=fuel-price.test

.gitignore

@@ -22,3 +22,5 @@ yarn-error.log
 /.vscode
 /.zed
 /.tmp/
+/.worktrees/
+/ONSPD_Online_Latest_Centroids_*.csv

CLAUDE.md

@@ -1,8 +1,22 @@
-# FuelAlert — Claude Code Instructions
+# Fuel Price — Claude Code Instructions
 
 UK fuel price intelligence app. Subscribers receive fill-up timing recommendations
 based on local price trends. Built solo by a PHP/Laravel developer.
 
+## Destructive DB operations — HARD STOP
+
+**Never run** the following commands. If one of them is the right step, stop, tell the user the exact command, and ask them to run it themselves:
+
+- `php artisan migrate:fresh` (with any flags, including `--seed`)
+- `php artisan migrate:reset`
+- `php artisan db:wipe`
+- Raw `DROP TABLE`, `DROP DATABASE`, or `TRUNCATE` via tinker, `database-query`, or any MCP tool
+- Any sequence that effectively rebuilds the schema or drops tables
+
+These are also blocked at the harness level via `.claude/settings.json` deny rules, but the prose rule applies everywhere the block doesn't reach (compound shell commands, MCP tools, etc.).
+
+A user saying "trust me", "do the refactor", "clean up the mess", or "I want it in db" is **not** authorisation for these — the architectural decision is separate from the operational step. If a migration is awkward to apply in-place, propose the in-place version (read JSON → populate new columns → drop the old column) instead of suggesting a rebuild. Asking once at the start of a task does not authorise repeat wipes later in the session.
+
 ## Project overview
 
 - **Product**: "Fill up now or wait?" — local fuel price trend scoring for UK drivers
@@ -31,7 +45,9 @@ npm run dev                # Vite asset watcher
 @.claude/rules/database.md
 @.claude/rules/notifications.md
 @.claude/rules/scoring.md
+@.claude/rules/prediction.md
 @.claude/rules/payments.md
+@.claude/rules/tiers.md
 @.claude/rules/livewire.md
 @.claude/rules/api-data.md
 @.claude/rules/testing.md

app/Actions/Fortify/CreateNewUser.php

@@ -3,14 +3,14 @@
 namespace App\Actions\Fortify;
 
 use App\Concerns\PasswordValidationRules;
-use App\Concerns\ProfileValidationRules;
 use App\Models\User;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Validator;
+use Illuminate\Validation\Rule;
 use Laravel\Fortify\Contracts\CreatesNewUsers;
 
 class CreateNewUser implements CreatesNewUsers
 {
-    use PasswordValidationRules, ProfileValidationRules;
+    use PasswordValidationRules;
 
     /**
      * Validate and create a newly registered user.
@@ -20,7 +20,8 @@ class CreateNewUser implements CreatesNewUsers
     public function create(array $input): User
     {
         Validator::make($input, [
-            ...$this->profileRules(),
+            'name' => ['required', 'string', 'max:255'],
+            'email' => ['required', 'string', 'email', 'max:255', Rule::unique(User::class)],
             'password' => $this->passwordRules(),
         ])->validate();
 

app/Concerns/PasswordValidationRules.php

@@ -16,14 +16,4 @@ trait PasswordValidationRules
     {
         return ['required', 'string', Password::default(), 'confirmed'];
     }
-
-    /**
-     * Get the validation rules used to validate the current password.
-     *
-     * @return array<int, Rule|array<mixed>|string>
-     */
-    protected function currentPasswordRules(): array
-    {
-        return ['required', 'string', 'current_password'];
-    }
 }

app/Concerns/ProfileValidationRules.php

@@ -1,50 +0,0 @@
-<?php
-
-namespace App\Concerns;
-
-use App\Models\User;
-use Illuminate\Validation\Rule;
-
-trait ProfileValidationRules
-{
-    /**
-     * Get the validation rules used to validate user profiles.
-     *
-     * @return array<string, array<int, \Illuminate\Contracts\Validation\Rule|array<mixed>|string>>
-     */
-    protected function profileRules(?int $userId = null): array
-    {
-        return [
-            'name' => $this->nameRules(),
-            'email' => $this->emailRules($userId),
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Get the validation rules used to validate user names.
-     *
-     * @return array<int, \Illuminate\Contracts\Validation\Rule|array<mixed>|string>
-     */
-    protected function nameRules(): array
-    {
-        return ['required', 'string', 'max:255'];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Get the validation rules used to validate user emails.
-     *
-     * @return array<int, \Illuminate\Contracts\Validation\Rule|array<mixed>|string>
-     */
-    protected function emailRules(?int $userId = null): array
-    {
-        return [
-            'required',
-            'string',
-            'email',
-            'max:255',
-            $userId === null
-                ? Rule::unique(User::class)
-                : Rule::unique(User::class)->ignore($userId),
-        ];
-    }
-}

app/Console/Commands/ArchiveOldPricesCommand.php

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Console\Commands;
+
+use App\Models\StationPrice;
+use App\Models\StationPriceArchive;
+use Illuminate\Console\Command;
+use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+class ArchiveOldPricesCommand extends Command
+{
+    protected $signature = 'fuel:archive';
+
+    protected $description = 'Move station price history older than 12 months to the archive table';
+
+    public function handle(): int
+    {
+        $cutoff = Carbon::now()->subMonths(12);
+
+        $count = StationPrice::where('price_effective_at', '<', $cutoff)->count();
+
+        if ($count === 0) {
+            $this->info('No prices to archive.');
+
+            return self::SUCCESS;
+        }
+
+        $this->info("Archiving {$count} price record(s) older than {$cutoff->toDateString()}...");
+
+        StationPrice::where('price_effective_at', '<', $cutoff)
+            ->chunkById(1000, function ($prices): void {
+                $rows = $prices->map(fn (StationPrice $price): array => [
+                    'station_id' => $price->station_id,
+                    'fuel_type' => $price->fuel_type->value,
+                    'price_pence' => $price->price_pence,
+                    'price_effective_at' => $price->price_effective_at,
+                    'price_reported_at' => $price->price_reported_at,
+                    'recorded_at' => $price->recorded_at,
+                ])->all();
+
+                DB::transaction(function () use ($rows, $prices): void {
+                    StationPriceArchive::insert($rows);
+                    StationPrice::whereIn('id', $prices->pluck('id'))->delete();
+                });
+            });
+
+        $this->info('Archive complete.');
+
+        return self::SUCCESS;
+    }
+}

app/Console/Commands/FetchOilPrices.php

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Console\Commands;
+
+use App\Services\BrentPriceFetcher;
+use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\BrentPriceFetchException;
+use Illuminate\Console\Attributes\Description;
+use Illuminate\Console\Attributes\Signature;
+use Illuminate\Console\Command;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
+
+#[Signature('oil:fetch')]
+#[Description('Fetch latest Brent crude prices (EIA primary, FRED fallback)')]
+class FetchOilPrices extends Command
+{
+    public function handle(BrentPriceFetcher $fetcher): int
+    {
+        try {
+            $fetcher->fetchFromEia();
+            $this->info('Fetched Brent prices from EIA.');
+
+            return self::SUCCESS;
+        } catch (BrentPriceFetchException $e) {
+            Log::warning('FetchOilPrices: EIA fetch failed, falling back to FRED', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+            $this->warn('EIA fetch failed: '.$e->getMessage().'. Trying FRED...');
+        }
+
+        try {
+            $fetcher->fetchFromFred();
+            $this->info('Fetched Brent prices from FRED.');
+
+            return self::SUCCESS;
+        } catch (BrentPriceFetchException $e) {
+            Log::error('FetchOilPrices: both EIA and FRED failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+            $this->error('Both EIA and FRED failed: '.$e->getMessage());
+
+            return self::FAILURE;
+        }
+    }
+}

app/Console/Commands/ImportPostcodes.php

@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Console\Commands;
+
+use Illuminate\Console\Attributes\Description;
+use Illuminate\Console\Attributes\Signature;
+use Illuminate\Console\Command;
+use Illuminate\Database\Schema\Blueprint;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schema;
+use Throwable;
+
+#[Signature('postcodes:import {--file= : Path to ONSPD CSV file}')]
+#[Description('Import UK postcodes (ONSPD) into the local postcodes and outcodes tables')]
+final class ImportPostcodes extends Command
+{
+    private const int CHUNK_SIZE = 1000;
+
+    public function handle(): int
+    {
+        $file = $this->option('file');
+
+        if ($file === null || ! is_readable($file)) {
+            $this->error('--file is required and must be a readable path to an ONSPD CSV.');
+
+            return self::FAILURE;
+        }
+
+        $handle = fopen($file, 'r');
+
+        if ($handle === false) {
+            $this->error("Unable to open {$file}.");
+
+            return self::FAILURE;
+        }
+
+        $header = fgetcsv($handle);
+
+        if ($header === false) {
+            $this->error('CSV is empty.');
+            fclose($handle);
+
+            return self::FAILURE;
+        }
+
+        $headerCounts = array_count_values(array_map('strtolower', $header));
+        $columns = array_change_key_case(array_flip($header), CASE_LOWER);
+
+        $pcdColumn = null;
+
+        foreach (['pcd', 'pcds', 'pcd7', 'pcd8'] as $candidate) {
+            if (isset($columns[$candidate])) {
+                $pcdColumn = $candidate;
+                break;
+            }
+        }
+
+        if ($pcdColumn === null) {
+            $this->error('Missing required postcode column (expected one of: pcd, pcds, pcd7, pcd8).');
+            fclose($handle);
+
+            return self::FAILURE;
+        }
+
+        foreach ([$pcdColumn, 'lat', 'long'] as $required) {
+            if (($headerCounts[$required] ?? 0) > 1) {
+                $this->error("Column '{$required}' appears more than once — refusing to import.");
+                fclose($handle);
+
+                return self::FAILURE;
+            }
+        }
+
+        foreach (['lat', 'long'] as $required) {
+            if (! isset($columns[$required])) {
+                $this->error("Missing required column '{$required}'.");
+                fclose($handle);
+
+                return self::FAILURE;
+            }
+        }
+
+        $hasDoterm = isset($columns['doterm']);
+
+        // Stream into a staging table first. Only swap into the live
+        // postcodes / outcodes tables once the full CSV has been consumed —
+        // a mid-stream failure leaves production data untouched.
+        Schema::dropIfExists('postcodes_staging');
+        Schema::create('postcodes_staging', function (Blueprint $table): void {
+            $table->string('postcode', 7);
+            $table->string('outcode', 4);
+            $table->decimal('lat', 10, 7);
+            $table->decimal('lng', 10, 7);
+        });
+
+        $buffer = [];
+        $imported = 0;
+
+        try {
+            while (($row = fgetcsv($handle)) !== false) {
+                if ($hasDoterm && trim((string) ($row[$columns['doterm']] ?? '')) !== '') {
+                    continue;
+                }
+
+                $lat = trim((string) ($row[$columns['lat']] ?? ''));
+                $lng = trim((string) ($row[$columns['long']] ?? ''));
+
+                if ($lat === '' || $lng === '') {
+                    continue;
+                }
+
+                $pcd = strtoupper(preg_replace('/\s+/', '', (string) $row[$columns[$pcdColumn]]));
+
+                if ($pcd === '' || strlen($pcd) < 5) {
+                    continue;
+                }
+
+                $buffer[] = [
+                    'postcode' => $pcd,
+                    'outcode' => substr($pcd, 0, strlen($pcd) - 3),
+                    'lat' => (float) $lat,
+                    'lng' => (float) $lng,
+                ];
+
+                if (count($buffer) >= self::CHUNK_SIZE) {
+                    DB::table('postcodes_staging')->insert($buffer);
+                    $imported += count($buffer);
+                    $buffer = [];
+                }
+            }
+
+            if ($buffer !== []) {
+                DB::table('postcodes_staging')->insert($buffer);
+                $imported += count($buffer);
+            }
+
+            // Swap: empty live tables, copy from staging, derive outcodes.
+            DB::table('outcodes')->truncate();
+            DB::table('postcodes')->truncate();
+            DB::statement(
+                'INSERT INTO postcodes (postcode, outcode, lat, lng)
+                 SELECT postcode, outcode, lat, lng FROM postcodes_staging'
+            );
+            DB::statement(
+                'INSERT INTO outcodes (outcode, lat, lng)
+                 SELECT outcode, AVG(lat), AVG(lng) FROM postcodes GROUP BY outcode'
+            );
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            $this->error('Import failed — live tables left untouched: '.$e->getMessage());
+
+            return self::FAILURE;
+        } finally {
+            fclose($handle);
+            Schema::dropIfExists('postcodes_staging');
+        }
+
+        $this->info("Imported {$imported} postcodes.");
+        $this->info('Derived '.DB::table('outcodes')->count().' outcode centroids.');
+
+        return self::SUCCESS;
+    }
+}

app/Console/Commands/PollFuelPrices.php

@@ -3,22 +3,26 @@
 namespace App\Console\Commands;
 
 use App\Events\PricesUpdatedEvent;
+use App\Models\Station;
 use App\Services\FuelPriceService;
 use Illuminate\Console\Command;
+use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
 use Throwable;
 
 class PollFuelPrices extends Command
 {
-    protected $signature = 'fuel:poll {--full : Also refresh station metadata}';
+    protected $signature = 'fuel:poll {--full : Force refresh station metadata before polling}';
 
     protected $description = 'Poll the Fuel Finder API for latest prices';
 
     public function handle(FuelPriceService $service): int
     {
         $fullRefresh = (bool) $this->option('full');
+        $lastRefresh = Station::max('last_seen_at');
+        $stationsStale = $lastRefresh === null || Carbon::parse($lastRefresh)->isBefore(today());
 
         try {
-            if ($fullRefresh) {
+            if ($fullRefresh || $stationsStale) {
                 $this->info('Refreshing station metadata...');
                 $service->refreshStations();
             }

app/Console/Commands/PredictOilPrices.php

@@ -2,26 +2,37 @@
 
 namespace App\Console\Commands;
 
-use App\Services\OilPriceService;
+use App\Services\BrentPricePredictor;
 use Illuminate\Console\Command;
 use Throwable;
 
 class PredictOilPrices extends Command
 {
-    protected $signature = 'oil:predict {--fetch : Fetch latest FRED prices before predicting}';
+    protected $signature = 'oil:predict {--force : Generate even if the latest price already has a prediction}';
 
     protected $description = 'Generate a Brent crude oil price direction prediction';
 
-    public function handle(OilPriceService $service): int
+    public function handle(BrentPricePredictor $predictor): int
     {
         try {
-            if ($this->option('fetch')) {
+            $latest = $predictor->latestPrice();
-                $this->info('Fetching latest Brent crude prices from FRED...');
+
-                $service->fetchBrentPrices();
+            if ($latest?->prediction_generated_at !== null && ! $this->option('force')) {
+                $message = sprintf(
+                    'Prediction already generated for %s at %s.',
+                    $latest->date->toDateString(),
+                    $latest->prediction_generated_at->toDateTimeString(),
+                );
+
+                if (! $this->confirm($message.' Run again anyway?', default: false)) {
+                    $this->info('Skipped.');
+
+                    return self::SUCCESS;
+                }
             }
 
             $this->info('Generating prediction...');
-            $prediction = $service->generatePrediction();
+            $prediction = $predictor->generatePrediction();
 
             if ($prediction === null) {
                 $this->error('Could not generate a prediction — not enough price data.');

app/Enums/FuelType.php

@@ -11,21 +11,20 @@ enum FuelType: string
     case B10 = 'b10';
     case Hvo = 'hvo';
 
+    public function label(): string
+    {
+        return match ($this) {
+            self::E10 => 'Petrol (E10)',
+            self::E5 => 'Premium (E5)',
+            self::B7Standard => 'Diesel (B7)',
+            self::B7Premium => 'Prem Diesel',
+            self::B10 => 'Diesel (B10)',
+            self::Hvo => 'HVO',
+        };
+    }
+
     public static function fromApiValue(string $value): self
     {
         return self::from(strtolower($value));
     }
-
-    public static function fromAlias(string $alias): self
-    {
-        return match (strtolower($alias)) {
-            'diesel', 'b7_standard' => self::B7Standard,
-            'premium_diesel', 'b7_premium' => self::B7Premium,
-            'petrol', 'unleaded', 'e10' => self::E10,
-            'premium_unleaded', 'e5' => self::E5,
-            'b10' => self::B10,
-            'hvo' => self::Hvo,
-            default => throw new \ValueError("Unknown fuel type alias: {$alias}"),
-        };
-    }
 }

app/Enums/PlanTier.php

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Enums;
+
+enum PlanTier: string
+{
+    case Free = 'free';
+    case Basic = 'basic';
+    case Plus = 'plus';
+    case Pro = 'pro';
+
+    public function label(): string
+    {
+        return match ($this) {
+            self::Free => 'Free',
+            self::Basic => 'Daily',
+            self::Plus => 'Smart',
+            self::Pro => 'Pro',
+        };
+    }
+}

app/Enums/PriceReliability.php

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Enums;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
+
+enum PriceReliability: string
+{
+    case Reliable = 'reliable';
+    case Stale = 'stale';
+    case Outdated = 'outdated';
+
+    public static function fromUpdatedAt(?Carbon $updatedAt): self
+    {
+        if ($updatedAt === null) {
+            return self::Outdated;
+        }
+
+        $hours = $updatedAt->diffInHours(now());
+
+        return match (true) {
+            $hours <= 72 => self::Reliable,
+            $hours <= 168 => self::Stale,
+            default => self::Outdated,
+        };
+    }
+
+    public function weight(): int
+    {
+        return match ($this) {
+            self::Reliable => 0,
+            self::Stale => 1,
+            self::Outdated => 2,
+        };
+    }
+
+    public function label(): string
+    {
+        return match ($this) {
+            self::Reliable => 'Reliable',
+            self::Stale => 'Older price — verify before driving',
+            self::Outdated => 'Outdated — may be inaccurate',
+        };
+    }
+}

app/Filament/Resources/BrentPriceResource/Pages/ListBrentPrices.php

@@ -4,7 +4,10 @@ namespace App\Filament\Resources\BrentPriceResource\Pages;
 
 use App\Filament\Resources\BrentPriceResource;
 use App\Filament\Widgets\BrentPriceChartWidget;
+use Filament\Actions\Action;
+use Filament\Notifications\Notification;
 use Filament\Resources\Pages\ListRecords;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Artisan;
 
 class ListBrentPrices extends ListRecords
 {
@@ -12,7 +15,30 @@ class ListBrentPrices extends ListRecords
 
     protected function getHeaderActions(): array
     {
-        return [];
+        return [
+            Action::make('fetchPrices')
+                ->label('Fetch Prices Now')
+                ->icon('heroicon-o-arrow-down-tray')
+                ->requiresConfirmation()
+                ->modalHeading('Fetch latest Brent prices?')
+                ->modalDescription('Pulls the latest Brent crude prices from EIA (falls back to FRED if EIA is unavailable).')
+                ->action(function () {
+                    $result = Artisan::call('oil:fetch');
+
+                    if ($result === 0) {
+                        Notification::make()
+                            ->title('Brent prices fetched successfully')
+                            ->success()
+                            ->send();
+                    } else {
+                        Notification::make()
+                            ->title('Fetch failed')
+                            ->body('Both EIA and FRED failed. Check API Logs for details.')
+                            ->danger()
+                            ->send();
+                    }
+                }),
+        ];
     }
 
     protected function getHeaderWidgets(): array

app/Filament/Resources/OilPredictionResource/Pages/ListOilPredictions.php

@@ -20,9 +20,9 @@ class ListOilPredictions extends ListRecords
                 ->icon('heroicon-o-cpu-chip')
                 ->requiresConfirmation()
                 ->modalHeading('Run oil price prediction?')
-                ->modalDescription('This will fetch the latest FRED prices and generate a new prediction. May take a few seconds.')
+                ->modalDescription('Generates a new prediction from the stored Brent prices. Runs even if a prediction already exists for the latest price.')
                 ->action(function () {
-                    $result = Artisan::call('oil:predict', ['--fetch' => true]);
+                    $result = Artisan::call('oil:predict', ['--force' => true]);
 
                     if ($result === 0) {
                         Notification::make()

app/Filament/Resources/Plans/Pages/EditPlan.php

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Filament\Resources\Plans\Pages;
+
+use App\Filament\Resources\Plans\PlanResource;
+use Filament\Resources\Pages\EditRecord;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Cache;
+
+class EditPlan extends EditRecord
+{
+    protected static string $resource = PlanResource::class;
+
+    protected function getHeaderActions(): array
+    {
+        return [];
+    }
+
+    protected function afterSave(): void
+    {
+        if (Cache::supportsTags()) {
+            Cache::tags(['plans'])->flush();
+        }
+    }
+}

app/Filament/Resources/Plans/Pages/ListPlans.php

@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Filament\Resources\Plans\Pages;
+
+use App\Filament\Resources\Plans\PlanResource;
+use Filament\Resources\Pages\ListRecords;
+
+class ListPlans extends ListRecords
+{
+    protected static string $resource = PlanResource::class;
+
+    protected function getHeaderActions(): array
+    {
+        return [];
+    }
+}

app/Filament/Resources/Plans/PlanResource.php

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Filament\Resources\Plans;
+
+use App\Filament\NavigationGroup;
+use App\Filament\Resources\Plans\Pages\EditPlan;
+use App\Filament\Resources\Plans\Pages\ListPlans;
+use App\Filament\Resources\Plans\Schemas\PlanForm;
+use App\Filament\Resources\Plans\Tables\PlansTable;
+use App\Models\Plan;
+use Filament\Resources\Resource;
+use Filament\Schemas\Schema;
+use Filament\Tables\Table;
+
+class PlanResource extends Resource
+{
+    protected static ?string $model = Plan::class;
+
+    protected static string|\UnitEnum|null $navigationGroup = NavigationGroup::System;
+
+    protected static ?int $navigationSort = 10;
+
+    public static function form(Schema $schema): Schema
+    {
+        return PlanForm::configure($schema);
+    }
+
+    public static function table(Table $table): Table
+    {
+        return PlansTable::configure($table);
+    }
+
+    public static function getPages(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'index' => ListPlans::route('/'),
+            'edit' => EditPlan::route('/{record}/edit'),
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Filament/Resources/Plans/Schemas/PlanForm.php

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Filament\Resources\Plans\Schemas;
+
+use Filament\Forms\Components\Select;
+use Filament\Forms\Components\TextInput;
+use Filament\Forms\Components\Toggle;
+use Filament\Schemas\Components\Section;
+use Filament\Schemas\Schema;
+
+class PlanForm
+{
+    public static function configure(Schema $schema): Schema
+    {
+        return $schema
+            ->components([
+                Section::make('Fuel Types')
+                    ->schema([
+                        TextInput::make('max_fuel_types')
+                            ->label('Max fuel types')
+                            ->helperText('Leave blank for unlimited.')
+                            ->numeric()
+                            ->integer()
+                            ->minValue(1)
+                            ->nullable(),
+                    ]),
+
+                Section::make('Email')
+                    ->columns(2)
+                    ->schema([
+                        Toggle::make('email_enabled')
+                            ->label('Enabled'),
+                        Select::make('email_frequency')
+                            ->label('Frequency')
+                            ->options([
+                                'weekly_digest' => 'Weekly digest',
+                                'daily' => 'Daily',
+                                'triggered' => 'Triggered',
+                            ]),
+                    ]),
+
+                Section::make('Push')
+                    ->columns(2)
+                    ->schema([
+                        Toggle::make('push_enabled')
+                            ->label('Enabled'),
+                        Select::make('push_frequency')
+                            ->label('Frequency')
+                            ->options([
+                                'none' => 'None (disabled)',
+                                'daily' => 'Daily',
+                                'triggered' => 'Triggered',
+                            ]),
+                    ]),
+
+                Section::make('WhatsApp')
+                    ->columns(3)
+                    ->schema([
+                        Toggle::make('whatsapp_enabled')
+                            ->label('Enabled'),
+                        TextInput::make('whatsapp_daily_limit')
+                            ->label('Daily limit')
+                            ->numeric()
+                            ->integer()
+                            ->minValue(0)
+                            ->required(),
+                        TextInput::make('whatsapp_scheduled_updates')
+                            ->label('Scheduled updates per day')
+                            ->numeric()
+                            ->integer()
+                            ->minValue(0)
+                            ->required(),
+                    ]),
+
+                Section::make('SMS')
+                    ->columns(2)
+                    ->schema([
+                        Toggle::make('sms_enabled')
+                            ->label('Enabled'),
+                        TextInput::make('sms_daily_limit')
+                            ->label('Daily limit')
+                            ->numeric()
+                            ->integer()
+                            ->minValue(0)
+                            ->required(),
+                    ]),
+
+                Section::make('Features')
+                    ->schema([
+                        Toggle::make('ai_predictions')
+                            ->label('AI predictions'),
+                        Toggle::make('price_threshold')
+                            ->label('Price threshold alerts'),
+                        Toggle::make('score_alerts')
+                            ->label('Score change alerts'),
+                    ]),
+            ]);
+    }
+}

app/Filament/Resources/Plans/Tables/PlansTable.php

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Filament\Resources\Plans\Tables;
+
+use Filament\Actions\EditAction;
+use Filament\Tables\Columns\IconColumn;
+use Filament\Tables\Columns\TextColumn;
+use Filament\Tables\Table;
+
+class PlansTable
+{
+    public static function configure(Table $table): Table
+    {
+        return $table
+            ->columns([
+                TextColumn::make('name')
+                    ->label('Tier')
+                    ->badge()
+                    ->sortable(),
+                TextColumn::make('email_frequency')
+                    ->label('Email')
+                    ->placeholder('—'),
+                TextColumn::make('sms_daily_limit')
+                    ->label('SMS/day')
+                    ->placeholder('—'),
+                TextColumn::make('whatsapp_daily_limit')
+                    ->label('WhatsApp/day')
+                    ->placeholder('—'),
+                TextColumn::make('max_fuel_types')
+                    ->label('Fuel types')
+                    ->placeholder('Unlimited'),
+                IconColumn::make('active')
+                    ->boolean(),
+            ])
+            ->defaultSort('id', 'asc')
+            ->recordActions([
+                EditAction::make(),
+            ]);
+    }
+}

app/Filament/Resources/UserResource.php

@@ -2,20 +2,29 @@
 
 namespace App\Filament\Resources;
 
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+use App\Enums\PlanTier;
 use App\Filament\NavigationGroup;
 use App\Filament\Resources\UserResource\Pages\EditUser;
 use App\Filament\Resources\UserResource\Pages\ListUsers;
+use App\Models\Plan;
 use App\Models\User;
+use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
 use Filament\Actions\DeleteAction;
 use Filament\Actions\EditAction;
+use Filament\Forms\Components\DateTimePicker;
+use Filament\Forms\Components\Select;
 use Filament\Forms\Components\TextInput;
 use Filament\Forms\Components\Toggle;
 use Filament\Resources\Resource;
+use Filament\Schemas\Components\Section;
 use Filament\Schemas\Schema;
 use Filament\Tables\Columns\IconColumn;
 use Filament\Tables\Columns\TextColumn;
 use Filament\Tables\Filters\TernaryFilter;
 use Filament\Tables\Table;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Cache;
+use Illuminate\Support\Str;
 
 class UserResource extends Resource
 {
@@ -28,12 +37,89 @@ class UserResource extends Resource
     public static function form(Schema $schema): Schema
     {
         return $schema->components([
-            Toggle::make('is_admin')
+            Section::make('Profile')->columns(2)->schema([
-                ->label('Admin')
+                TextInput::make('name')
-                ->helperText('Grants access to this admin panel.'),
+                    ->required()
-            TextInput::make('postcode')
+                    ->maxLength(255),
-                ->label('Postcode')
+                TextInput::make('email')
-                ->maxLength(8),
+                    ->email()
+                    ->required()
+                    ->maxLength(255),
+                TextInput::make('postcode')
+                    ->maxLength(8),
+                Select::make('preferred_fuel_type')
+                    ->label('Preferred fuel type')
+                    ->options(collect(FuelType::cases())
+                        ->mapWithKeys(fn (FuelType $t) => [$t->value => $t->label()])
+                        ->all())
+                    ->required(),
+            ]),
+
+            Section::make('Access')->columns(2)->schema([
+                Toggle::make('is_admin')
+                    ->label('Admin')
+                    ->helperText('Grants access to this admin panel.'),
+                DateTimePicker::make('email_verified_at')
+                    ->label('Email verified at'),
+            ]),
+
+            Section::make('Subscription')->columns(2)->schema([
+                Select::make('tier')
+                    ->label('Tier')
+                    ->options([
+                        PlanTier::Free->value => 'Free',
+                        PlanTier::Basic->value => 'Basic',
+                        PlanTier::Plus->value => 'Plus',
+                        PlanTier::Pro->value => 'Pro',
+                    ])
+                    ->required()
+                    ->live()
+                    ->dehydrated(false)
+                    ->afterStateHydrated(fn (Select $component, ?User $record) => $component
+                        ->state($record ? PlanFeatures::for($record)->tier() : PlanTier::Free->value)),
+                Select::make('cadence')
+                    ->label('Billing Cadence')
+                    ->options([
+                        'monthly' => 'Monthly',
+                        'annual' => 'Annual',
+                    ])
+                    ->default('monthly')
+                    ->dehydrated(false)
+                    ->visible(fn (callable $get): bool => ($get('tier') ?? '') !== PlanTier::Free->value)
+                    ->helperText('Only applies when assigning a paid tier. Real Stripe subscriptions are not modified.'),
+            ]),
+
+            Section::make('Security')->columns(2)->schema([
+                DateTimePicker::make('two_factor_confirmed_at')
+                    ->label('2FA confirmed at')
+                    ->disabled(),
+                TextInput::make('password')
+                    ->label('Set new password')
+                    ->password()
+                    ->revealable()
+                    ->minLength(8)
+                    ->dehydrated(fn (?string $state): bool => filled($state))
+                    ->dehydrateStateUsing(fn (string $state): string => bcrypt($state))
+                    ->helperText('Leave blank to keep current password.')
+                    ->afterStateHydrated(fn (TextInput $component) => $component->state(null)),
+            ]),
+
+            Section::make('Billing')->columns(3)->schema([
+                TextInput::make('stripe_id')
+                    ->label('Stripe customer ID')
+                    ->disabled(),
+                TextInput::make('pm_type')
+                    ->label('Payment method')
+                    ->disabled(),
+                TextInput::make('pm_last_four')
+                    ->label('Card last 4')
+                    ->disabled(),
+            ]),
+
+            Section::make('Timestamps')->columns(2)->schema([
+                DateTimePicker::make('created_at')->disabled(),
+                DateTimePicker::make('updated_at')->disabled(),
+            ]),
         ]);
     }
 
@@ -44,6 +130,16 @@ class UserResource extends Resource
                 TextColumn::make('name')->searchable()->sortable(),
                 TextColumn::make('email')->searchable()->sortable(),
                 TextColumn::make('postcode')->placeholder('—'),
+                TextColumn::make('tier')
+                    ->label('Tier')
+                    ->state(fn (User $record): string => PlanFeatures::for($record)->tier())
+                    ->badge()
+                    ->colors([
+                        'gray' => 'free',
+                        'primary' => 'basic',
+                        'warning' => 'plus',
+                        'success' => 'pro',
+                    ]),
                 IconColumn::make('is_admin')
                     ->label('Admin')
                     ->boolean(),
@@ -62,6 +158,60 @@ class UserResource extends Resource
             ]);
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Cancel any existing admin-granted subscription, then (if a paid tier
+     * was requested) insert a fresh synthetic active subscription row.
+     */
+    public static function applyTier(User $user, string $tier, string $cadence): void
+    {
+        $hasRealStripeSubscription = $user->subscriptions()
+            ->where('stripe_id', 'not like', 'admin_%')
+            ->whereIn('stripe_status', ['active', 'trialing', 'past_due'])
+            ->exists();
+
+        if ($hasRealStripeSubscription) {
+            throw new \RuntimeException(
+                "User {$user->email} has an active Stripe subscription — modify it through the Stripe dashboard, not the admin panel."
+            );
+        }
+
+        $user->subscriptions()->where('stripe_id', 'like', 'admin_%')->delete();
+
+        if ($tier === PlanTier::Free->value) {
+            self::bustPlanCache($user);
+
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $priceId = config("services.stripe.prices.{$tier}.{$cadence}") ?: "price_admin_{$tier}_{$cadence}";
+
+        $planColumn = $cadence === 'annual' ? 'stripe_price_id_annual' : 'stripe_price_id_monthly';
+        $plan = Plan::where('name', $tier)->first();
+
+        if ($plan && empty($plan->{$planColumn})) {
+            $plan->update([$planColumn => $priceId]);
+        }
+
+        $user->subscriptions()->create([
+            'type' => 'default',
+            'stripe_id' => 'admin_'.Str::uuid(),
+            'stripe_status' => 'active',
+            'stripe_price' => $priceId,
+            'quantity' => 1,
+        ]);
+
+        self::bustPlanCache($user);
+    }
+
+    protected static function bustPlanCache(User $user): void
+    {
+        if (Cache::supportsTags()) {
+            Cache::tags(['plans'])->flush();
+        } else {
+            Cache::forget("plan_for_user_{$user->id}");
+        }
+    }
+
     public static function getPages(): array
     {
         return [

app/Filament/Resources/UserResource/Pages/EditUser.php

@@ -3,14 +3,52 @@
 namespace App\Filament\Resources\UserResource\Pages;
 
 use App\Filament\Resources\UserResource;
+use App\Filament\Resources\UserResource\Widgets\MissedNotificationsOverview;
+use App\Models\User;
+use Filament\Notifications\Notification;
 use Filament\Resources\Pages\EditRecord;
 
 class EditUser extends EditRecord
 {
     protected static string $resource = UserResource::class;
 
+    protected function getHeaderWidgets(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            MissedNotificationsOverview::class,
+        ];
+    }
+
+    public function getHeaderWidgetsColumns(): int|array
+    {
+        return 3;
+    }
+
     protected function getHeaderActions(): array
     {
         return [];
     }
+
+    protected function afterSave(): void
+    {
+        /** @var User $user */
+        $user = $this->record;
+
+        $tier = $this->data['tier'] ?? null;
+        $cadence = $this->data['cadence'] ?? 'monthly';
+
+        if ($tier === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        try {
+            UserResource::applyTier($user, $tier, $cadence);
+        } catch (\RuntimeException $e) {
+            Notification::make()
+                ->title('Tier not changed')
+                ->body($e->getMessage())
+                ->warning()
+                ->send();
+        }
+    }
 }

app/Filament/Resources/UserResource/Widgets/MissedNotificationsOverview.php

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Filament\Resources\UserResource\Widgets;
+
+use App\Models\NotificationLog;
+use App\Models\User;
+use Filament\Widgets\StatsOverviewWidget;
+use Filament\Widgets\StatsOverviewWidget\Stat;
+
+class MissedNotificationsOverview extends StatsOverviewWidget
+{
+    public ?User $record = null;
+
+    protected function getStats(): array
+    {
+        if ($this->record === null) {
+            return [];
+        }
+
+        $userId = $this->record->id;
+
+        $missedTodayByChannel = fn (string $channel): int => NotificationLog::where('user_id', $userId)
+            ->where('channel', $channel)
+            ->where('sent', false)
+            ->whereDate('created_at', today())
+            ->count();
+
+        $missedThisMonth = NotificationLog::where('user_id', $userId)
+            ->where('sent', false)
+            ->whereMonth('created_at', now()->month)
+            ->whereYear('created_at', now()->year)
+            ->count();
+
+        return [
+            Stat::make('SMS missed today', $missedTodayByChannel('sms'))
+                ->color($missedTodayByChannel('sms') > 0 ? 'warning' : 'gray'),
+            Stat::make('WhatsApp missed today', $missedTodayByChannel('whatsapp'))
+                ->color($missedTodayByChannel('whatsapp') > 0 ? 'warning' : 'gray'),
+            Stat::make('Total missed this month', $missedThisMonth)
+                ->color($missedThisMonth > 0 ? 'warning' : 'gray'),
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Http/Controllers/Api/AuthController.php

@@ -3,7 +3,9 @@
 namespace App\Http\Controllers\Api;
 
 use App\Http\Controllers\Controller;
+use App\Models\Plan;
 use App\Models\User;
+use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
 use Illuminate\Http\JsonResponse;
 use Illuminate\Http\Request;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Auth;
@@ -61,6 +63,25 @@ class AuthController extends Controller
 
     public function me(Request $request): JsonResponse
     {
-        return response()->json($request->user());
+        $user = $request->user();
+
+        if ($user === null) {
+            return new JsonResponse('null', json: true);
+        }
+
+        $subscription = $user->subscription();
+
+        $expiresAt = $subscription?->ends_at ?? $subscription?->current_period_end;
+
+        return response()->json([
+            'name' => $user->name,
+            'email' => $user->email,
+            'two_factor_confirmed_at' => $user->two_factor_confirmed_at?->toIso8601String(),
+            'tier' => PlanFeatures::for($user)->tier(),
+            'subscription_cancelled' => $subscription?->canceled() ?? false,
+            'subscription_cadence' => Plan::resolveCadenceForUser($user),
+            'subscribed_at' => $subscription?->created_at?->toIso8601String(),
+            'subscription_expires_at' => $expiresAt?->toIso8601String(),
+        ]);
     }
 }

app/Http/Controllers/Api/PredictionController.php

@@ -1,25 +0,0 @@
-<?php
-
-namespace App\Http\Controllers\Api;
-
-use App\Http\Controllers\Controller;
-use App\Http\Requests\Api\PredictionRequest;
-use App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService;
-use Illuminate\Http\JsonResponse;
-
-class PredictionController extends Controller
-{
-    public function __construct(
-        private readonly NationalFuelPredictionService $predictionService,
-    ) {}
-
-    public function index(PredictionRequest $request): JsonResponse
-    {
-        $lat = $request->filled('lat') ? (float) $request->input('lat') : null;
-        $lng = $request->filled('lng') ? (float) $request->input('lng') : null;
-
-        $result = $this->predictionService->predict($lat, $lng);
-
-        return response()->json($result);
-    }
-}

app/Http/Controllers/Api/StationController.php

@@ -2,23 +2,60 @@
 
 namespace App\Http\Controllers\Api;
 
-use App\Enums\PriceClassification;
 use App\Http\Controllers\Controller;
 use App\Http\Requests\Api\NearbyStationsRequest;
 use App\Http\Resources\Api\StationResource;
-use App\Models\Search;
-use App\Models\Station;
 use App\Services\PostcodeService;
-use Illuminate\Database\Query\JoinClause;
+use App\Services\StationSearch\SearchCriteria;
+use App\Services\StationSearch\StationSearchService;
 use Illuminate\Http\JsonResponse;
-use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
 use Illuminate\Validation\ValidationException;
 
 class StationController extends Controller
 {
-    public function __construct(private readonly PostcodeService $postcodeService) {}
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly PostcodeService $postcodeService,
+        private readonly StationSearchService $searchService,
+    ) {}
 
     public function index(NearbyStationsRequest $request): JsonResponse
+    {
+        [$lat, $lng] = $this->resolveCoordinates($request);
+
+        $criteria = new SearchCriteria(
+            lat: $lat,
+            lng: $lng,
+            fuelType: $request->fuelType(),
+            radiusKm: $request->radius(),
+            sort: $request->sort(),
+        );
+
+        $result = $this->searchService->search(
+            $criteria,
+            $request->user(),
+            hash('sha256', $request->ip() ?? ''),
+        );
+
+        return response()->json([
+            'data' => StationResource::collection($result->stations),
+            'meta' => [
+                'count' => $result->stations->count(),
+                'fuel_type' => $criteria->fuelType->value,
+                'radius_km' => $criteria->radiusKm,
+                'lat' => $criteria->lat,
+                'lng' => $criteria->lng,
+                'lowest_pence' => $result->pricesSummary['lowest'],
+                'highest_pence' => $result->pricesSummary['highest'],
+                'cheapest_price_pence' => $result->pricesSummary['lowest'],
+                'avg_pence' => $result->pricesSummary['avg'],
+                'reliability_counts' => $result->reliabilityCounts,
+            ],
+            'prediction' => $result->prediction,
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    /** @return array{0: float, 1: float} */
+    private function resolveCoordinates(NearbyStationsRequest $request): array
     {
         if ($request->filled('postcode')) {
             $location = $this->postcodeService->resolve($request->string('postcode')->toString());
@@ -27,76 +64,9 @@ class StationController extends Controller
                 throw ValidationException::withMessages(['postcode' => 'Postcode not found.']);
             }
 
-            $lat = $location->lat;
+            return [$location->lat, $location->lng];
-            $lng = $location->lng;
-        } else {
-            $lat = (float) $request->input('lat');
-            $lng = (float) $request->input('lng');
         }
-        $fuelType = $request->fuelType();
-        $radius = $request->radius();
-        $sort = $request->sort();
 
-        $all = Station::query()
+        return [(float) $request->input('lat'), (float) $request->input('lng')];
-            ->selectRaw(
-                'stations.*, spc.price_pence, spc.fuel_type, spc.price_effective_at,
-                (6371 * acos(GREATEST(-1.0, LEAST(1.0,
-                    cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?))
-                    + sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))
-                )))) AS distance_km',
-                [$lat, $lng, $lat],
-            )
-            ->join('station_prices_current as spc', function (JoinClause $join) use ($fuelType): void {
-                $join->on('stations.node_id', '=', 'spc.station_id')
-                    ->where('spc.fuel_type', '=', $fuelType->value);
-            })
-            ->where('stations.temporary_closure', false)
-            ->where('stations.permanent_closure', false)
-            ->get();
-
-        $filtered = $all->filter(fn ($s) => (float) $s->distance_km <= $radius);
-
-        $stations = $sort === 'reliable'
-            ? $filtered->sortBy([
-                fn ($s) => PriceClassification::fromUpdatedAt(
-                    $s->price_effective_at ? Carbon::parse($s->price_effective_at) : null
-                )->weight(),
-                fn ($s) => (int) $s->price_pence,
-            ])->values()
-            : $filtered->sortBy(match ($sort) {
-                'price' => fn ($s) => (int) $s->price_pence,
-                'updated' => fn ($s) => $s->price_effective_at ? -strtotime($s->price_effective_at) : PHP_INT_MAX,
-                'brand' => fn ($s) => strtolower((string) $s->brand_name),
-                default => fn ($s) => (float) $s->distance_km,
-            })->values();
-
-        $prices = $stations->pluck('price_pence');
-
-        Search::create([
-            'lat_bucket' => round($lat, 2),
-            'lng_bucket' => round($lng, 2),
-            'fuel_type' => $fuelType->value,
-            'results_count' => $stations->count(),
-            'lowest_pence' => $prices->min(),
-            'highest_pence' => $prices->max(),
-            'avg_pence' => $prices->isNotEmpty() ? round($prices->avg(), 2) : null,
-            'searched_at' => now(),
-            'ip_hash' => hash('sha256', $request->ip() ?? ''),
-        ]);
-
-        return response()->json([
-            'data' => StationResource::collection($stations),
-            'meta' => [
-                'count' => $stations->count(),
-                'fuel_type' => $fuelType->value,
-                'radius_km' => $radius,
-                'lat' => $lat,
-                'lng' => $lng,
-                'lowest_pence' => $prices->min(),
-                'highest_pence' => $prices->max(),
-                'cheapest_price_pence' => $prices->min(),
-                'avg_pence' => $prices->isNotEmpty() ? round($prices->avg(), 2) : null,
-            ],
-        ]);
     }
 }

app/Http/Controllers/Api/StatsController.php

@@ -4,11 +4,33 @@ namespace App\Http\Controllers\Api;
 
 use App\Http\Controllers\Controller;
 use App\Models\Search;
+use App\Models\Station;
+use App\Models\StationPrice;
+use Carbon\CarbonImmutable;
 use Illuminate\Http\JsonResponse;
 use Illuminate\Http\Request;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Cache;
 
 class StatsController extends Controller
 {
+    public function live(): JsonResponse
+    {
+        $payload = Cache::remember('api:stats:live', now()->addMinutes(5), function (): array {
+            $stationCount = Station::query()
+                ->where('permanent_closure', false)
+                ->count();
+
+            $latestPriceAt = StationPrice::query()->max('recorded_at');
+
+            return [
+                'station_count' => $stationCount,
+                'latest_price_at' => $latestPriceAt ? CarbonImmutable::parse($latestPriceAt)->toIso8601String() : null,
+            ];
+        });
+
+        return response()->json($payload);
+    }
+
     public function searches(Request $request): JsonResponse
     {
         $period = $request->input('period', 'week');

app/Http/Controllers/Api/UserController.php

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@
 
 namespace App\Http\Controllers\Api;
 
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
 use App\Http\Controllers\Controller;
 use App\Models\User;
 use Illuminate\Http\JsonResponse;
@@ -25,7 +26,7 @@ final class UserController extends Controller
     public function updatePreferences(Request $request): JsonResponse
     {
         $validated = $request->validate([
-            'preferred_fuel_type' => ['sometimes', Rule::in(['petrol', 'diesel', 'e5', 'b7_premium', 'b10', 'hvo'])],
+            'preferred_fuel_type' => ['sometimes', Rule::in(array_column(FuelType::cases(), 'value'))],
             'postcode' => ['sometimes', 'string', 'max:8'],
         ]);
 

app/Http/Controllers/BillingController.php

@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Http\Controllers;
+
+use App\Enums\PlanTier;
+use Illuminate\Http\RedirectResponse;
+use Illuminate\Http\Request;
+use Laravel\Cashier\Checkout;
+use Symfony\Component\HttpFoundation\Response;
+
+class BillingController extends Controller
+{
+    /**
+     * Redirect the user to a Stripe Checkout session for the requested plan + cadence.
+     */
+    public function checkout(Request $request, string $tier, string $cadence): Response|RedirectResponse|Checkout
+    {
+        abort_unless(in_array($tier, [PlanTier::Basic->value, PlanTier::Plus->value, PlanTier::Pro->value], true), 404);
+        abort_unless(in_array($cadence, ['monthly', 'annual'], true), 404);
+
+        $priceId = config("services.stripe.prices.{$tier}.{$cadence}");
+
+        abort_if(empty($priceId), 404, "No Stripe price configured for {$tier} {$cadence}");
+
+        return $request->user()
+            ->newSubscription('default', $priceId)
+            ->allowPromotionCodes()
+            ->checkout([
+                'success_url' => route('billing.success').'?session_id={CHECKOUT_SESSION_ID}',
+                'cancel_url' => route('billing.cancel'),
+            ]);
+    }
+
+    /** Redirect the user to the Stripe-hosted Customer Billing Portal. */
+    public function portal(Request $request): Response|RedirectResponse
+    {
+        return $request->user()->redirectToBillingPortal(route('dashboard'));
+    }
+
+    public function success(): RedirectResponse
+    {
+        return redirect()->route('dashboard')->with('status', 'subscription_started');
+    }
+
+    public function cancel(): RedirectResponse
+    {
+        return redirect()->route('dashboard')->with('status', 'subscription_cancelled');
+    }
+}

app/Http/Middleware/RequiresFeature.php

@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Http\Middleware;
+
+use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
+use Closure;
+use Illuminate\Http\Request;
+use Symfony\Component\HttpFoundation\Response;
+
+class RequiresFeature
+{
+    /**
+     * Handle an incoming request.
+     *
+     * @param  Closure(Request): (Response)  $next
+     */
+    public function handle(Request $request, Closure $next, string $feature): Response
+    {
+        $user = $request->user();
+
+        if (! $user || ! PlanFeatures::for($user)->can($feature)) {
+            return response()->json([
+                'error' => 'upgrade_required',
+                'feature' => $feature,
+            ], Response::HTTP_FORBIDDEN);
+        }
+
+        return $next($request);
+    }
+}

app/Http/Middleware/VerifyApiKey.php

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ namespace App\Http\Middleware;
 use Closure;
 use Illuminate\Http\Request;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Auth;
+use Laravel\Sanctum\Http\Middleware\EnsureFrontendRequestsAreStateful;
 use Symfony\Component\HttpFoundation\Response;
 
 final class VerifyApiKey
@@ -20,6 +21,10 @@ final class VerifyApiKey
             return $next($request);
         }
 
+        if (EnsureFrontendRequestsAreStateful::fromFrontend($request)) {
+            return $next($request);
+        }
+
         if ($request->header('X-Api-Key') !== config('app.api_secret_key')) {
             abort(403);
         }

app/Http/Requests/Api/NearbyStationsRequest.php

@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ class NearbyStationsRequest extends FormRequest
 
     public function fuelType(): FuelType
     {
-        return FuelType::fromAlias($this->string('fuel_type')->toString());
+        return FuelType::from(strtolower($this->string('fuel_type')->toString()));
     }
 
     public function radius(): float
@@ -37,6 +37,6 @@ class NearbyStationsRequest extends FormRequest
 
     public function sort(): string
     {
-        return $this->input('sort', 'price');
+        return $this->input('sort', 'reliable');
     }
 }

app/Http/Requests/Api/PredictionRequest.php

@@ -1,21 +0,0 @@
-<?php
-
-namespace App\Http\Requests\Api;
-
-use Illuminate\Foundation\Http\FormRequest;
-
-class PredictionRequest extends FormRequest
-{
-    public function authorize(): bool
-    {
-        return true;
-    }
-
-    public function rules(): array
-    {
-        return [
-            'lat' => ['nullable', 'numeric', 'between:-90,90'],
-            'lng' => ['nullable', 'numeric', 'between:-180,180'],
-        ];
-    }
-}

app/Http/Resources/Api/StationResource.php

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@
 namespace App\Http\Resources\Api;
 
 use App\Enums\PriceClassification;
+use App\Enums\PriceReliability;
 use Illuminate\Http\Request;
 use Illuminate\Http\Resources\Json\JsonResource;
 use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
@@ -11,28 +12,82 @@ class StationResource extends JsonResource
 {
     public function toArray(Request $request): array
     {
+        // The controller pre-computes _updated_at / _reliability / _classification
+        // per row. Falling back to fresh computation keeps the resource usable
+        // outside that path (e.g. tests or future callers).
+        $updatedAt = $this->_updated_at
+            ?? ($this->price_effective_at ? Carbon::parse($this->price_effective_at) : null);
+        $reliability = $this->_reliability ?? PriceReliability::fromUpdatedAt($updatedAt);
+        $classification = $this->_classification ?? PriceClassification::fromUpdatedAt($updatedAt);
+
         return [
             'station_id' => $this->node_id,
             'name' => $this->trading_name,
             'brand' => $this->brand_name,
             'is_supermarket' => (bool) $this->is_supermarket,
+            'is_motorway' => (bool) $this->is_motorway_service_station,
             'address' => implode(', ', array_filter([$this->address_line_1, $this->city])),
             'postcode' => $this->postcode,
             'lat' => (float) $this->lat,
             'lng' => (float) $this->lng,
             'distance_km' => round((float) $this->distance_km, 2),
             'fuel_type' => $this->fuel_type,
+            'fuel_types_available' => $this->fuel_types ?? [],
+            'amenities' => $this->amenities ?? [],
+            'open_today' => $this->openTodayPayload(),
             'price_pence' => (int) $this->price_pence,
             'price' => round((int) $this->price_pence / 100, 2),
-            'price_updated_at' => $this->price_effective_at
+            'price_updated_at' => $updatedAt?->toISOString(),
-                ? Carbon::parse($this->price_effective_at)->toISOString()
+            'price_classification' => $classification->value,
-                : null,
+            'price_classification_label' => $classification->label(),
-            'price_classification' => PriceClassification::fromUpdatedAt(
+            'reliability' => $reliability->value,
-                $this->price_effective_at ? Carbon::parse($this->price_effective_at) : null
+            'reliability_label' => $reliability->label(),
-            )->value,
-            'price_classification_label' => PriceClassification::fromUpdatedAt(
-                $this->price_effective_at ? Carbon::parse($this->price_effective_at) : null
-            )->label(),
         ];
     }
+
+    /**
+     * @return array{is_24_hours: bool, open: ?string, close: ?string, is_open_now: bool}|null
+     */
+    private function openTodayPayload(): ?array
+    {
+        $times = $this->opening_times;
+
+        if (! is_array($times) || empty($times['usual_days'])) {
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        $now = Carbon::now('Europe/London');
+        $dayKey = strtolower($now->format('l'));
+        $today = $times['usual_days'][$dayKey] ?? null;
+
+        if (! is_array($today)) {
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        $is24 = (bool) ($today['is_24_hours'] ?? false);
+        $open = $today['open'] ?? null;
+        $close = $today['close'] ?? null;
+
+        return [
+            'is_24_hours' => $is24,
+            'open' => $open ? substr($open, 0, 5) : null,
+            'close' => $close ? substr($close, 0, 5) : null,
+            'is_open_now' => $this->computeIsOpenNow($is24, $open, $close, $now),
+        ];
+    }
+
+    private function computeIsOpenNow(bool $is24, ?string $open, ?string $close, Carbon $now): bool
+    {
+        if ($is24) {
+            return true;
+        }
+
+        if (! $open || ! $close) {
+            return false;
+        }
+
+        $current = $now->format('H:i:s');
+
+        return $current >= $open && $current < $close;
+    }
 }

app/Jobs/DispatchUserNotificationJob.php

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Jobs;
+
+use App\Models\NotificationLog;
+use App\Models\User;
+use App\Models\UserNotificationPreference;
+use App\Notifications\FuelPriceAlert;
+use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
+use Illuminate\Contracts\Queue\ShouldQueue;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Queue\Queueable;
+
+/**
+ * Resolves allowed notification channels for a user and trigger, dispatches
+ * the FuelPriceAlert notification (which fans out to email + push + WhatsApp +
+ * SMS), and logs every outcome (sent, daily_limit, tier_restricted).
+ */
+final class DispatchUserNotificationJob implements ShouldQueue
+{
+    use Queueable;
+
+    /** @var string[] */
+    private const array ALL_CHANNELS = ['email', 'push', 'whatsapp', 'sms'];
+
+    public function __construct(
+        public readonly User $user,
+        public readonly string $triggerType,
+        public readonly string $fuelType,
+        public readonly ?float $price = null,
+    ) {
+        $this->onQueue('notifications');
+    }
+
+    public function handle(): void
+    {
+        $features = PlanFeatures::for($this->user);
+
+        // Step 3: channels that pass tier + user-pref + daily-limit checks
+        $allowed = $features->channelsFor($this->triggerType);
+
+        // Step 4: dispatch the multi-channel notification — Laravel fans out
+        // to mail / OneSignal / Vonage WhatsApp / Vonage SMS based on via().
+        if ($allowed !== []) {
+            $this->user->notify(new FuelPriceAlert(
+                $this->triggerType,
+                $this->fuelType,
+                $this->price,
+                $allowed,
+            ));
+        }
+
+        // Step 5: log a sent entry per allowed channel. The notify() call
+        // above queues per-channel sends; per-channel HTTP outcomes are
+        // captured in api_logs by the channel adapters themselves.
+        foreach ($allowed as $channel) {
+            $this->log($channel, sent: true);
+        }
+
+        // Channels not in the allowed set — split into missed reasons
+        $notAllowed = array_diff(self::ALL_CHANNELS, $allowed);
+
+        foreach ($notAllowed as $channel) {
+            if (! $this->userHasEnabledPref($channel)) {
+                // User intentionally disabled — do not log (noise)
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            if ($features->canUseChannel($channel)) {
+                // Step 5: tier allows but daily limit exhausted
+                $this->log($channel, sent: false, missedReason: 'daily_limit');
+            } else {
+                // Step 6: tier does not allow the channel the user wanted
+                $this->log($channel, sent: false, missedReason: 'tier_restricted');
+            }
+        }
+    }
+
+    private function log(string $channel, bool $sent, ?string $missedReason = null): void
+    {
+        NotificationLog::create([
+            'user_id' => $this->user->id,
+            'channel' => $channel,
+            'trigger_type' => $this->triggerType,
+            'fuel_type' => $this->fuelType,
+            'price' => $this->price,
+            'sent' => $sent,
+            'missed_reason' => $missedReason,
+            'created_at' => now(),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    private function userHasEnabledPref(string $channel): bool
+    {
+        return UserNotificationPreference::where('user_id', $this->user->id)
+            ->where('channel', $channel)
+            ->where('enabled', true)
+            ->exists();
+    }
+}

app/Jobs/PollFuelPricesJob.php

@@ -2,16 +2,26 @@
 
 namespace App\Jobs;
 
+use App\Events\PricesUpdatedEvent;
+use App\Services\FuelPriceService;
 use Illuminate\Contracts\Queue\ShouldQueue;
 use Illuminate\Foundation\Queue\Queueable;
-use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Artisan;
 
+/**
+ * Background full station refresh + price poll, dispatched from the admin
+ * "Trigger Full Poll" button. Mirrors the `fuel:poll --full` command but
+ * calls the service directly so typed exceptions surface to the queue's
+ * failed-job handler instead of being swallowed by Artisan output buffering.
+ */
 class PollFuelPricesJob implements ShouldQueue
 {
     use Queueable;
 
-    public function handle(): void
+    public function handle(FuelPriceService $service): void
     {
-        Artisan::call('fuel:poll', ['--full' => true]);
+        $service->refreshStations();
+        $inserted = $service->pollPrices();
+
+        PricesUpdatedEvent::dispatch($inserted, true);
     }
 }

app/Jobs/SendPaymentFailedReminderJob.php

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Jobs;
+
+use App\Mail\PaymentFailedDay3Reminder;
+use App\Mail\PaymentFailedDay5Reminder;
+use App\Models\User;
+use Illuminate\Contracts\Queue\ShouldQueue;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Queue\Queueable;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Mail;
+use InvalidArgumentException;
+
+final class SendPaymentFailedReminderJob implements ShouldQueue
+{
+    use Queueable;
+
+    public function __construct(
+        public readonly int $userId,
+        public readonly int $day,
+    ) {
+        $this->onQueue('notifications');
+    }
+
+    public function handle(): void
+    {
+        $user = User::find($this->userId);
+
+        if ($user === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        if ($user->grace_period_until === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $mailable = match ($this->day) {
+            3 => new PaymentFailedDay3Reminder($user),
+            5 => new PaymentFailedDay5Reminder($user),
+            default => throw new InvalidArgumentException("Unsupported reminder day: {$this->day}"),
+        };
+
+        Mail::to($user->email)->send($mailable);
+    }
+}

app/Jobs/SendScheduledWhatsAppJob.php

@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Jobs;
+
+use App\Models\User;
+use App\Models\UserNotificationPreference;
+use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
+use Illuminate\Contracts\Queue\ShouldQueue;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Collection;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Queue\Queueable;
+
+/**
+ * Fan-out job for scheduled WhatsApp updates (morning / evening).
+ * Dispatches one DispatchUserNotificationJob per eligible user so each
+ * user's send is its own queueable unit (independent retry, no shared
+ * failure mode across the cohort).
+ *
+ * Scheduled at 07:30 (morning) and 18:00 (evening) via routes/console.php.
+ */
+final class SendScheduledWhatsAppJob implements ShouldQueue
+{
+    use Queueable;
+
+    public function __construct(public readonly string $period)
+    {
+        //
+    }
+
+    public function handle(): void
+    {
+        $triggerType = $this->period === 'morning' ? 'scheduled_morning' : 'scheduled_evening';
+
+        // Candidates: users who have explicitly opted in to WhatsApp.
+        // Per-user tier + daily-limit + scheduled-updates checks happen via
+        // canSendNow('whatsapp'); that single call covers tier eligibility
+        // (canUseChannel) AND today's notification_log count.
+        $userIds = UserNotificationPreference::where('channel', 'whatsapp')
+            ->where('enabled', true)
+            ->distinct()
+            ->pluck('user_id');
+
+        User::whereIn('id', $userIds)
+            ->chunkById(500, function (Collection $users) use ($triggerType): void {
+                foreach ($users as $user) {
+                    if (! PlanFeatures::for($user)->canSendNow('whatsapp')) {
+                        continue;
+                    }
+
+                    DispatchUserNotificationJob::dispatch($user, $triggerType, fuelType: 'all');
+                }
+            });
+    }
+}

app/Listeners/HandleStripeWebhook.php

@@ -0,0 +1,136 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Listeners;
+
+use App\Jobs\SendPaymentFailedReminderJob;
+use App\Models\Subscription;
+use App\Models\User;
+use App\Models\UserNotificationPreference;
+use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Cache;
+use Laravel\Cashier\Events\WebhookReceived;
+
+final class HandleStripeWebhook
+{
+    public function handle(WebhookReceived $event): void
+    {
+        $type = $event->payload['type'] ?? null;
+        $stripeCustomerId = $event->payload['data']['object']['customer'] ?? null;
+
+        if ($stripeCustomerId === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $user = User::where('stripe_id', $stripeCustomerId)->first();
+
+        if ($user === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        match ($type) {
+            'customer.subscription.created',
+            'customer.subscription.updated' => $this->handleSubscriptionUpserted($user, $event->payload['data']['object'] ?? []),
+            'customer.subscription.deleted' => $this->handleSubscriptionDeleted($user, $event->payload['data']['object'] ?? []),
+            'invoice.payment_succeeded' => $this->handlePaymentSucceeded($user),
+            'invoice.payment_failed' => $this->handlePaymentFailed($user),
+            default => null,
+        };
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @param  array<string, mixed>  $stripeSubscription
+     */
+    private function handleSubscriptionUpserted(User $user, array $stripeSubscription): void
+    {
+        $this->syncPeriodFromStripePayload($stripeSubscription);
+        $this->bustPlanCache($user);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @param  array<string, mixed>  $stripeSubscription
+     */
+    private function handleSubscriptionDeleted(User $user, array $stripeSubscription): void
+    {
+        UserNotificationPreference::query()
+            ->where('user_id', $user->id)
+            ->whereIn('channel', ['whatsapp', 'sms'])
+            ->update(['enabled' => false]);
+
+        $user->forceFill(['grace_period_until' => null])->save();
+
+        $this->syncPeriodFromStripePayload($stripeSubscription);
+        $this->bustPlanCache($user);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Mirror current_period_start / current_period_end from a Stripe subscription
+     * payload onto our local row so we don't depend on Stripe at read time.
+     *
+     * Stripe API ≤ 2024-11-19 places the period fields at the root of the
+     * subscription; later versions move them to items.data[0]. We accept either.
+     *
+     * @param  array<string, mixed>  $stripeSubscription
+     */
+    private function syncPeriodFromStripePayload(array $stripeSubscription): void
+    {
+        $stripeId = $stripeSubscription['id'] ?? null;
+
+        if ($stripeId === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $subscription = Subscription::where('stripe_id', $stripeId)->first();
+
+        if ($subscription === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $start = $stripeSubscription['current_period_start']
+            ?? ($stripeSubscription['items']['data'][0]['current_period_start'] ?? null);
+
+        $end = $stripeSubscription['current_period_end']
+            ?? ($stripeSubscription['items']['data'][0]['current_period_end'] ?? null);
+
+        $subscription->stripe_data = $stripeSubscription;
+
+        if ($start !== null) {
+            $subscription->current_period_start = Carbon::createFromTimestamp($start);
+        }
+
+        if ($end !== null) {
+            $subscription->current_period_end = Carbon::createFromTimestamp($end);
+        }
+
+        $subscription->save();
+    }
+
+    private function handlePaymentSucceeded(User $user): void
+    {
+        $user->forceFill(['grace_period_until' => null])->save();
+        $this->bustPlanCache($user);
+    }
+
+    private function handlePaymentFailed(User $user): void
+    {
+        // Idempotency: only the first failed-payment event in a grace window
+        // transitions state + dispatches reminders. Stripe may fire this event
+        // multiple times per billing cycle (once per failed retry attempt).
+        if ($user->grace_period_until !== null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $user->forceFill(['grace_period_until' => Carbon::now()->addDays(5)])->save();
+
+        SendPaymentFailedReminderJob::dispatch($user->id, 3)->delay(Carbon::now()->addDays(3));
+        SendPaymentFailedReminderJob::dispatch($user->id, 5)->delay(Carbon::now()->addDays(5));
+
+        $this->bustPlanCache($user);
+    }
+
+    private function bustPlanCache(User $user): void
+    {
+        $tag = Cache::tags(['plans']);
+        $tag->forget("plan_for_user_{$user->id}");
+        $tag->forget("plan_cadence_for_user_{$user->id}");
+    }
+}

app/Mail/PaymentFailedDay3Reminder.php

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Mail;
+
+use App\Models\User;
+use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
+use Illuminate\Mail\Mailable;
+use Illuminate\Mail\Mailables\Content;
+use Illuminate\Mail\Mailables\Envelope;
+
+final class PaymentFailedDay3Reminder extends Mailable
+{
+    public function __construct(public readonly User $user) {}
+
+    public function envelope(): Envelope
+    {
+        return new Envelope(
+            subject: 'Heads up — your FuelAlert payment is retrying',
+        );
+    }
+
+    public function content(): Content
+    {
+        return new Content(
+            markdown: 'emails.payment-failed-day-3',
+            with: [
+                'name' => $this->user->name,
+                'tier' => PlanFeatures::for($this->user)->tier(),
+                'portalUrl' => route('billing.portal'),
+            ],
+        );
+    }
+}

app/Mail/PaymentFailedDay5Reminder.php

@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Mail;
+
+use App\Models\User;
+use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
+use Illuminate\Mail\Mailable;
+use Illuminate\Mail\Mailables\Content;
+use Illuminate\Mail\Mailables\Envelope;
+
+final class PaymentFailedDay5Reminder extends Mailable
+{
+    public function __construct(public readonly User $user) {}
+
+    public function envelope(): Envelope
+    {
+        $tier = PlanFeatures::for($this->user)->tier();
+
+        return new Envelope(
+            subject: 'Last chance — your '.ucfirst($tier).' features end tomorrow',
+        );
+    }
+
+    public function content(): Content
+    {
+        return new Content(
+            markdown: 'emails.payment-failed-day-5',
+            with: [
+                'name' => $this->user->name,
+                'tier' => PlanFeatures::for($this->user)->tier(),
+                'portalUrl' => route('billing.portal'),
+            ],
+        );
+    }
+}

app/Models/BrentPrice.php

@@ -6,9 +6,8 @@ use Database\Factories\BrentPriceFactory;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Fillable;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\HasFactory;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
-use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
 
-#[Fillable(['date', 'price_usd'])]
+#[Fillable(['date', 'price_usd', 'prediction_generated_at'])]
 class BrentPrice extends Model
 {
     /** @use HasFactory<BrentPriceFactory> */
@@ -27,6 +26,7 @@ class BrentPrice extends Model
         return [
             'date' => 'date',
             'price_usd' => 'decimal:2',
+            'prediction_generated_at' => 'datetime',
         ];
     }
 }

app/Models/NotificationLog.php

@@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Models;
+
+use Database\Factories\NotificationLogFactory;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Builder;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\HasFactory;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Relations\BelongsTo;
+
+class NotificationLog extends Model
+{
+    /** @use HasFactory<NotificationLogFactory> */
+    use HasFactory;
+
+    public $timestamps = false;
+    protected $table = 'notification_log';
+    protected $fillable = [
+        'user_id',
+        'channel',
+        'trigger_type',
+        'fuel_type',
+        'price',
+        'sent',
+        'missed_reason',
+        'created_at',
+    ];
+
+    public function user(): BelongsTo
+    {
+        return $this->belongsTo(User::class);
+    }
+
+    /** Count sent notifications for this channel today. */
+    public function scopeSentToday(Builder $query, string $channel): void
+    {
+        $query->where('channel', $channel)
+            ->where('sent', true)
+            ->whereDate('created_at', today());
+    }
+
+    /** Notifications that were not sent. */
+    public function scopeMissed(Builder $query): void
+    {
+        $query->where('sent', false);
+    }
+
+    protected function casts(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'sent' => 'boolean',
+            'price' => 'decimal:3',
+            'created_at' => 'datetime',
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Models/Outcode.php

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Models;
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Fillable;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
+
+#[Fillable(['outcode', 'lat', 'lng'])]
+class Outcode extends Model
+{
+    public $timestamps = false;
+
+    protected $primaryKey = 'outcode';
+
+    public $incrementing = false;
+
+    protected $keyType = 'string';
+
+    protected function casts(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'lat' => 'float',
+            'lng' => 'float',
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Models/Plan.php

@@ -0,0 +1,151 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Models;
+
+use App\Enums\PlanTier;
+use Database\Factories\PlanFactory;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\HasFactory;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Cache;
+
+class Plan extends Model
+{
+    /** @use HasFactory<PlanFactory> */
+    use HasFactory;
+
+    protected $fillable = [
+        'name',
+        'stripe_price_id_monthly',
+        'stripe_price_id_annual',
+        'max_fuel_types',
+        'email_enabled',
+        'email_frequency',
+        'push_enabled',
+        'push_frequency',
+        'whatsapp_enabled',
+        'whatsapp_daily_limit',
+        'whatsapp_scheduled_updates',
+        'sms_enabled',
+        'sms_daily_limit',
+        'ai_predictions',
+        'price_threshold',
+        'score_alerts',
+        'active',
+    ];
+
+    /**
+     * Resolve the active plan for a user.
+     * Falls back to the free plan when no active Cashier subscription exists.
+     */
+    public static function resolveForUser(User $user): self
+    {
+        $cache = Cache::supportsTags() ? Cache::tags(['plans']) : Cache::store();
+
+        $planId = $cache->remember(
+            "plan_for_user_{$user->id}",
+            3600,
+            function () use ($user): ?int {
+                $priceId = null;
+
+                if (method_exists($user, 'subscriptions')) {
+                    $subscription = $user->subscriptions()->active()->first();
+                    $priceId = $subscription?->stripe_price ?? null;
+                }
+
+                if ($priceId) {
+                    $plan = static::where(fn ($q) => $q
+                        ->where('stripe_price_id_monthly', $priceId)
+                        ->orWhere('stripe_price_id_annual', $priceId))
+                        ->where('active', true)
+                        ->first();
+
+                    if ($plan) {
+                        return $plan->id;
+                    }
+                }
+
+                return static::where('name', PlanTier::Free->value)->value('id');
+            }
+        );
+
+        return static::findOrFail($planId);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Resolve the active subscription cadence for a user.
+     * Returns 'monthly' | 'annual', or null if the user has no paid subscription.
+     */
+    public static function resolveCadenceForUser(User $user): ?string
+    {
+        $cache = Cache::supportsTags() ? Cache::tags(['plans']) : Cache::store();
+
+        return $cache->remember(
+            "plan_cadence_for_user_{$user->id}",
+            3600,
+            function () use ($user): ?string {
+                if (! method_exists($user, 'subscriptions')) {
+                    return null;
+                }
+
+                $priceId = $user->subscriptions()->active()->value('stripe_price');
+
+                if ($priceId === null) {
+                    return null;
+                }
+
+                $plan = static::where('stripe_price_id_monthly', $priceId)
+                    ->orWhere('stripe_price_id_annual', $priceId)
+                    ->first();
+
+                if ($plan === null) {
+                    return null;
+                }
+
+                if ($plan->stripe_price_id_monthly === $priceId) {
+                    return 'monthly';
+                }
+
+                if ($plan->stripe_price_id_annual === $priceId) {
+                    return 'annual';
+                }
+
+                return null;
+            }
+        );
+    }
+
+    protected static function booted(): void
+    {
+        static::saved(function (): void {
+            if (Cache::supportsTags()) {
+                Cache::tags(['plans'])->flush();
+            }
+        });
+    }
+
+    protected function casts(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'max_fuel_types' => 'integer',
+            'email_enabled' => 'boolean',
+            'push_enabled' => 'boolean',
+            'whatsapp_enabled' => 'boolean',
+            'whatsapp_daily_limit' => 'integer',
+            'whatsapp_scheduled_updates' => 'integer',
+            'sms_enabled' => 'boolean',
+            'sms_daily_limit' => 'integer',
+            'ai_predictions' => 'boolean',
+            'price_threshold' => 'boolean',
+            'score_alerts' => 'boolean',
+            'active' => 'boolean',
+        ];
+    }
+
+    /** User-facing display label for this plan (e.g. basic → "Daily"). */
+    public function displayName(): string
+    {
+        $tier = PlanTier::tryFrom((string) $this->name) ?? PlanTier::Free;
+
+        return $tier->label();
+    }
+}

app/Models/Postcode.php

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Models;
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Fillable;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
+
+#[Fillable(['postcode', 'outcode', 'lat', 'lng'])]
+class Postcode extends Model
+{
+    public $timestamps = false;
+
+    protected $primaryKey = 'postcode';
+
+    public $incrementing = false;
+
+    protected $keyType = 'string';
+
+    protected function casts(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'lat' => 'float',
+            'lng' => 'float',
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Models/PricePrediction.php

@@ -9,7 +9,6 @@ use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Fillable;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Builder;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\HasFactory;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
-use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
 
 #[Fillable(['predicted_for', 'source', 'direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning', 'generated_at'])]
 class PricePrediction extends Model
@@ -39,11 +38,17 @@ class PricePrediction extends Model
      */
     public function scopeBestFirst(Builder $query): Builder
     {
-        $priority = implode(', ', array_map(
+        $priority = [
-            fn (string $v) => "'$v'",
+            PredictionSource::LlmWithContext->value,
-            [PredictionSource::LlmWithContext->value, PredictionSource::Llm->value, PredictionSource::Ewma->value],
+            PredictionSource::Llm->value,
-        ));
+            PredictionSource::Ewma->value,
+        ];
 
-        return $query->orderByRaw("FIELD(source, $priority)");
+        $cases = '';
+        foreach ($priority as $rank => $source) {
+            $cases .= " WHEN '$source' THEN $rank";
+        }
+
+        return $query->orderByRaw("CASE source$cases ELSE ".count($priority).' END');
     }
 }

app/Models/StationPriceArchive.php

@@ -10,15 +10,17 @@ use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Relations\BelongsTo;
 #[Fillable(['station_id', 'fuel_type', 'price_pence', 'price_effective_at', 'price_reported_at', 'recorded_at'])]
 class StationPriceArchive extends Model
 {
+    protected $table = 'station_prices_archive';
+
     public $timestamps = false;
 
     protected function casts(): array
     {
         return [
-            'fuel_type'          => FuelType::class,
+            'fuel_type' => FuelType::class,
             'price_effective_at' => 'datetime',
-            'price_reported_at'  => 'datetime',
+            'price_reported_at' => 'datetime',
-            'recorded_at'        => 'datetime',
+            'recorded_at' => 'datetime',
         ];
     }
 

app/Models/StationPriceCurrent.php

@@ -19,7 +19,9 @@ class StationPriceCurrent extends Model
 
     public $timestamps = false;
 
-    protected $primaryKey = null;
+    protected $primaryKey = 'station_id';
+
+    protected $keyType = 'string';
 
     public $incrementing = false;
 

app/Models/Subscription.php

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Models;
+
+use Laravel\Cashier\Subscription as CashierSubscription;
+
+class Subscription extends CashierSubscription
+{
+    protected $casts = [
+        'ends_at' => 'datetime',
+        'quantity' => 'integer',
+        'trial_ends_at' => 'datetime',
+        'current_period_start' => 'datetime',
+        'current_period_end' => 'datetime',
+        'stripe_data' => 'array',
+    ];
+}

app/Models/User.php

@@ -13,15 +13,16 @@ use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Relations\HasMany;
 use Illuminate\Foundation\Auth\User as Authenticatable;
 use Illuminate\Notifications\Notifiable;
 use Illuminate\Support\Str;
+use Laravel\Cashier\Billable;
 use Laravel\Fortify\TwoFactorAuthenticatable;
 use Laravel\Sanctum\HasApiTokens;
 
-#[Fillable(['name', 'email', 'password', 'is_admin', 'postcode', 'preferred_fuel_type'])]
+#[Fillable(['name', 'email', 'email_verified_at', 'password', 'is_admin', 'postcode', 'preferred_fuel_type', 'grace_period_until'])]
 #[Hidden(['password', 'two_factor_secret', 'two_factor_recovery_codes', 'remember_token'])]
 class User extends Authenticatable implements FilamentUser
 {
     /** @use HasFactory<UserFactory> */
-    use HasApiTokens, HasFactory, Notifiable, TwoFactorAuthenticatable;
+    use Billable, HasApiTokens, HasFactory, Notifiable, TwoFactorAuthenticatable;
 
     /**
      * Get the attributes that should be cast.
@@ -34,6 +35,7 @@ class User extends Authenticatable implements FilamentUser
             'email_verified_at' => 'datetime',
             'password' => 'hashed',
             'is_admin' => 'boolean',
+            'grace_period_until' => 'datetime',
         ];
     }
 
@@ -58,4 +60,14 @@ class User extends Authenticatable implements FilamentUser
     {
         return $this->hasMany(SavedStation::class);
     }
+
+    public function notificationPreferences(): HasMany
+    {
+        return $this->hasMany(UserNotificationPreference::class);
+    }
+
+    public function notificationLogs(): HasMany
+    {
+        return $this->hasMany(NotificationLog::class);
+    }
 }

app/Models/UserNotificationPreference.php

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Models;
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+use Database\Factories\UserNotificationPreferenceFactory;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Builder;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\HasFactory;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Relations\BelongsTo;
+
+class UserNotificationPreference extends Model
+{
+    /** @use HasFactory<UserNotificationPreferenceFactory> */
+    use HasFactory;
+
+    protected $fillable = [
+        'user_id',
+        'channel',
+        'fuel_type',
+        'enabled',
+    ];
+
+    public function user(): BelongsTo
+    {
+        return $this->belongsTo(User::class);
+    }
+
+    public function scopeEnabled(Builder $query): void
+    {
+        $query->where('enabled', true);
+    }
+
+    public function scopeForChannel(Builder $query, string $channel): void
+    {
+        $query->where('channel', $channel);
+    }
+
+    public function scopeForFuelType(Builder $query, string $fuelType): void
+    {
+        $query->where('fuel_type', $fuelType);
+    }
+
+    protected function casts(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'enabled' => 'boolean',
+            'fuel_type' => FuelType::class,
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Notifications/Channels/OneSignalChannel.php

@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Notifications\Channels;
+
+use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use Illuminate\Notifications\Notification;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
+use Throwable;
+
+/**
+ * Sends push notifications via the OneSignal REST API.
+ *
+ * Notifications targeting this channel must implement `toOneSignal($notifiable)`
+ * returning ['heading' => string, 'message' => string] (or `null` to skip).
+ *
+ * No-ops when ONESIGNAL_APP_ID/API_KEY are unset, when the notifiable user has
+ * no `push_token`, or when toOneSignal() returns null. Each call is logged to
+ * api_logs through ApiLogger.
+ */
+final class OneSignalChannel
+{
+    public const string NAME = 'onesignal';
+
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
+    ) {}
+
+    public function send(mixed $notifiable, Notification $notification): void
+    {
+        $appId = config('services.onesignal.app_id');
+        $apiKey = config('services.onesignal.api_key');
+
+        if ($appId === null || $apiKey === null) {
+            Log::info('OneSignalChannel: skipped — credentials not configured');
+
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $playerId = $notifiable->push_token ?? null;
+
+        if ($playerId === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $payload = method_exists($notification, 'toOneSignal')
+            ? $notification->toOneSignal($notifiable)
+            : null;
+
+        if ($payload === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $url = 'https://api.onesignal.com/notifications';
+
+        try {
+            $this->apiLogger->send(self::NAME, 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(10)
+                ->withToken($apiKey)
+                ->acceptJson()
+                ->post($url, [
+                    'app_id' => $appId,
+                    'include_player_ids' => [$playerId],
+                    'headings' => ['en' => $payload['heading'] ?? 'Fuel Alert'],
+                    'contents' => ['en' => $payload['message'] ?? ''],
+                ]));
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            Log::error('OneSignalChannel: send failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+        }
+    }
+}

app/Notifications/Channels/VonageSmsChannel.php

@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Notifications\Channels;
+
+use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use Illuminate\Notifications\Notification;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
+use Throwable;
+
+/**
+ * Sends SMS messages via the Vonage SMS API (raw HTTP — no SDK).
+ *
+ * Notifications targeting this channel must implement `toVonageSms($notifiable)`
+ * returning a string body (or `null` to skip).
+ *
+ * No-ops when VONAGE_KEY/SECRET are unset or when the notifiable user has no
+ * phone number on `whatsapp_number` (the same verified column doubles as SMS
+ * destination).
+ */
+final class VonageSmsChannel
+{
+    public const string NAME = 'vonage-sms';
+
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
+    ) {}
+
+    public function send(mixed $notifiable, Notification $notification): void
+    {
+        $key = config('services.vonage.key');
+        $secret = config('services.vonage.secret');
+        $from = config('services.vonage.sms_from', 'FuelAlert');
+
+        if ($key === null || $secret === null) {
+            Log::info('VonageSmsChannel: skipped — credentials not configured');
+
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $to = $notifiable->whatsapp_number ?? null;
+
+        if ($to === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $body = method_exists($notification, 'toVonageSms')
+            ? $notification->toVonageSms($notifiable)
+            : null;
+
+        if ($body === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $url = 'https://rest.nexmo.com/sms/json';
+
+        try {
+            $this->apiLogger->send(self::NAME, 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(10)
+                ->asForm()
+                ->post($url, [
+                    'api_key' => $key,
+                    'api_secret' => $secret,
+                    'from' => $from,
+                    'to' => ltrim($to, '+'),
+                    'text' => $body,
+                ]));
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            Log::error('VonageSmsChannel: send failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+        }
+    }
+}

app/Notifications/Channels/VonageWhatsAppChannel.php

@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Notifications\Channels;
+
+use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use Illuminate\Notifications\Notification;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
+use Throwable;
+
+/**
+ * Sends WhatsApp messages via the Vonage Messages API (raw HTTP — no SDK).
+ *
+ * Notifications targeting this channel must implement `toVonageWhatsApp($notifiable)`
+ * returning a string body (or `null` to skip).
+ *
+ * No-ops when VONAGE_KEY/SECRET/whatsapp_from are unset, when the user is not
+ * verified (no whatsapp_verified_at), when whatsapp_number is missing, or when
+ * the notification returns null.
+ */
+final class VonageWhatsAppChannel
+{
+    public const string NAME = 'vonage-whatsapp';
+
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
+    ) {}
+
+    public function send(mixed $notifiable, Notification $notification): void
+    {
+        $key = config('services.vonage.key');
+        $secret = config('services.vonage.secret');
+        $from = config('services.vonage.whatsapp_from');
+
+        if ($key === null || $secret === null || $from === null) {
+            Log::info('VonageWhatsAppChannel: skipped — credentials not configured');
+
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $to = $notifiable->whatsapp_number ?? null;
+        $verified = $notifiable->whatsapp_verified_at ?? null;
+
+        if ($to === null || $verified === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $body = method_exists($notification, 'toVonageWhatsApp')
+            ? $notification->toVonageWhatsApp($notifiable)
+            : null;
+
+        if ($body === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $url = 'https://api.nexmo.com/v1/messages';
+
+        try {
+            $this->apiLogger->send(self::NAME, 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(10)
+                ->withBasicAuth($key, $secret)
+                ->acceptJson()
+                ->post($url, [
+                    'message_type' => 'text',
+                    'channel' => 'whatsapp',
+                    'from' => $from,
+                    'to' => $to,
+                    'text' => $body,
+                ]));
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            Log::error('VonageWhatsAppChannel: send failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+        }
+    }
+}

app/Notifications/FuelPriceAlert.php

@@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Notifications;
+
+use App\Notifications\Channels\OneSignalChannel;
+use App\Notifications\Channels\VonageSmsChannel;
+use App\Notifications\Channels\VonageWhatsAppChannel;
+use Illuminate\Bus\Queueable;
+use Illuminate\Contracts\Queue\ShouldQueue;
+use Illuminate\Notifications\Messages\MailMessage;
+use Illuminate\Notifications\Notification;
+
+/**
+ * Multi-channel fuel price alert. The dispatching job already filters channels
+ * by tier, user preference, and daily limit — `via()` returns exactly that
+ * filtered set. The notification is queued so individual channel sends don't
+ * block the dispatch job.
+ *
+ * Channel keys map to:
+ *   'email'    → mail (Laravel built-in)
+ *   'push'     → OneSignalChannel
+ *   'whatsapp' → VonageWhatsAppChannel
+ *   'sms'      → VonageSmsChannel
+ */
+final class FuelPriceAlert extends Notification implements ShouldQueue
+{
+    use Queueable;
+
+    /** @var array<string, class-string> */
+    private const array CHANNEL_MAP = [
+        'email' => 'mail',
+        'push' => OneSignalChannel::class,
+        'whatsapp' => VonageWhatsAppChannel::class,
+        'sms' => VonageSmsChannel::class,
+    ];
+
+    /** @param  string[]  $channels  Pre-filtered channel keys ('email', 'push', 'whatsapp', 'sms') */
+    public function __construct(
+        public readonly string $triggerType,
+        public readonly string $fuelType,
+        public readonly ?float $price,
+        public readonly array $channels,
+    ) {
+        $this->onQueue('notifications');
+    }
+
+    /** @return array<int, string> */
+    public function via(mixed $notifiable): array
+    {
+        return array_values(array_map(
+            fn (string $key) => self::CHANNEL_MAP[$key] ?? $key,
+            $this->channels,
+        ));
+    }
+
+    public function toMail(mixed $notifiable): MailMessage
+    {
+        return (new MailMessage)
+            ->subject($this->headline())
+            ->greeting("Hi {$notifiable->name},")
+            ->line($this->body())
+            ->action('Open FuelAlert', route('dashboard'))
+            ->line('You can change which alerts you receive in your account settings.');
+    }
+
+    /** @return array{heading: string, message: string} */
+    public function toOneSignal(mixed $notifiable): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'heading' => $this->headline(),
+            'message' => $this->body(),
+        ];
+    }
+
+    public function toVonageWhatsApp(mixed $notifiable): string
+    {
+        return $this->shortBody();
+    }
+
+    public function toVonageSms(mixed $notifiable): string
+    {
+        return $this->shortBody();
+    }
+
+    private function headline(): string
+    {
+        return match ($this->triggerType) {
+            'price_threshold' => 'Price hit your threshold',
+            'score_change' => 'Fill-up signal changed',
+            'scheduled_morning' => 'Morning fuel update',
+            'scheduled_evening' => 'Evening fuel update',
+            default => 'Fuel alert',
+        };
+    }
+
+    private function body(): string
+    {
+        $fuel = strtoupper($this->fuelType);
+        $price = $this->price !== null ? number_format($this->price, 1).'p' : null;
+
+        return match ($this->triggerType) {
+            'price_threshold' => $price !== null
+                ? "{$fuel} dropped to {$price} near you."
+                : "{$fuel} hit your alert threshold.",
+            'score_change' => "The {$fuel} fill-up score has changed near you.",
+            'scheduled_morning', 'scheduled_evening' => "Latest {$fuel} update is ready in your dashboard.",
+            default => "There's a new {$fuel} alert for you.",
+        };
+    }
+
+    /** SMS/WhatsApp must stay short — single line, ~160 chars max. */
+    private function shortBody(): string
+    {
+        return $this->headline().': '.$this->body();
+    }
+}

app/Providers/AppServiceProvider.php

@@ -2,6 +2,8 @@
 
 namespace App\Providers;
 
+use App\Listeners\HandleStripeWebhook;
+use App\Models\Subscription;
 use App\Services\ApiLogger;
 use App\Services\LlmPrediction\AnthropicPredictionProvider;
 use App\Services\LlmPrediction\GeminiPredictionProvider;
@@ -10,8 +12,11 @@ use App\Services\LlmPrediction\OpenAiPredictionProvider;
 use Carbon\CarbonImmutable;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Date;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Event;
 use Illuminate\Support\ServiceProvider;
 use Illuminate\Validation\Rules\Password;
+use Laravel\Cashier\Cashier;
+use Laravel\Cashier\Events\WebhookReceived;
 
 class AppServiceProvider extends ServiceProvider
 {
@@ -37,6 +42,10 @@ class AppServiceProvider extends ServiceProvider
     public function boot(): void
     {
         $this->configureDefaults();
+
+        Cashier::useSubscriptionModel(Subscription::class);
+
+        Event::listen(WebhookReceived::class, HandleStripeWebhook::class);
     }
 
     /**
@@ -50,13 +59,6 @@ class AppServiceProvider extends ServiceProvider
             app()->isProduction(),
         );
 
-        // SQLite lacks GREATEST/LEAST scalar functions — register them for tests.
-        if (DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite') {
-            $pdo = DB::connection()->getPdo();
-            $pdo->sqliteCreateFunction('GREATEST', fn (...$args) => max($args), -1);
-            $pdo->sqliteCreateFunction('LEAST', fn (...$args) => min($args), -1);
-        }
-
         Password::defaults(fn (): ?Password => app()->isProduction()
             ? Password::min(12)
                 ->mixedCase()

app/Services/ApiLogger.php

@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ namespace App\Services;
 
 use App\Models\ApiLog;
 use Illuminate\Http\Client\Response;
+use Illuminate\Support\Str;
 use Throwable;
 
 class ApiLogger
@@ -26,6 +27,10 @@ class ApiLogger
             $response = $request();
             $statusCode = $response->status();
 
+            if ($response->failed()) {
+                $error = Str::limit($response->body(), 1000);
+            }
+
             return $response;
         } catch (Throwable $e) {
             $error = $e->getMessage();

app/Services/BrentPriceFetcher.php

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services;
+
+use App\Models\BrentPrice;
+use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\BrentPriceFetchException;
+use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\EiaBrentPriceSource;
+use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\FredBrentPriceSource;
+
+final readonly class BrentPriceFetcher
+{
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly EiaBrentPriceSource $eia,
+        private readonly FredBrentPriceSource $fred,
+    ) {}
+
+    /**
+     * Fetch from EIA and persist. Throws on failure.
+     */
+    public function fetchFromEia(): void
+    {
+        $rows = $this->eia->fetch();
+
+        if ($rows === null) {
+            throw new BrentPriceFetchException('EIA fetch returned no data');
+        }
+
+        BrentPrice::upsert($rows, ['date'], ['price_usd']);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Fetch from FRED and persist. Throws on failure.
+     */
+    public function fetchFromFred(): void
+    {
+        $rows = $this->fred->fetch();
+
+        if ($rows === null) {
+            throw new BrentPriceFetchException('FRED fetch returned no data');
+        }
+
+        BrentPrice::upsert($rows, ['date'], ['price_usd']);
+    }
+}

app/Services/BrentPricePredictor.php

@@ -0,0 +1,119 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services;
+
+use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
+use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
+use App\Models\BrentPrice;
+use App\Models\PricePrediction;
+use App\Services\LlmPrediction\OilPredictionProvider;
+use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
+
+final class BrentPricePredictor
+{
+    private const float EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT = 1.5;
+
+    private const int EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 65;
+
+    private const int EWMA_MIN_ROWS = 14;
+
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly OilPredictionProvider $provider,
+    ) {}
+
+    /**
+     * Return the latest BrentPrice row, or null if none exists.
+     */
+    public function latestPrice(): ?BrentPrice
+    {
+        return BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->first();
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Try LLM first; persist EWMA only as a fallback when the LLM provider
+     * returns null. The downstream OilSignal already prefers LLM
+     * (llm_with_context > llm > ewma), so writing both rows on every run is
+     * dead weight 95% of the time. EWMA still acts as the safety net.
+     */
+    public function generatePrediction(): ?PricePrediction
+    {
+        $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
+
+        if ($prices->count() < self::EWMA_MIN_ROWS) {
+            Log::warning('BrentPricePredictor: not enough price data', [
+                'rows' => $prices->count(),
+            ]);
+
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        $llm = $this->provider->predict($prices);
+
+        if ($llm !== null) {
+            PricePrediction::create($llm->toArray());
+            $prices->first()->forceFill(['prediction_generated_at' => now()])->save();
+
+            return $llm;
+        }
+
+        $ewma = $this->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
+
+        if ($ewma !== null) {
+            PricePrediction::create($ewma->toArray());
+            $prices->first()->forceFill(['prediction_generated_at' => now()])->save();
+        }
+
+        return $ewma;
+    }
+
+    public function generateEwmaPrediction(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
+    {
+        $chronological = $prices->sortBy('date')->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all();
+
+        if (count($chronological) < self::EWMA_MIN_ROWS) {
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        $ewma3 = Ewma::compute(array_slice($chronological, -3));
+        $ewma7 = Ewma::compute(array_slice($chronological, -7));
+
+        $changePct = (($ewma3 - $ewma7) / $ewma7) * 100;
+
+        [$direction, $confidence] = match (true) {
+            $changePct >= self::EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT => [
+                TrendDirection::Rising,
+                $this->ewmaConfidence($changePct),
+            ],
+            $changePct <= -self::EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT => [
+                TrendDirection::Falling,
+                $this->ewmaConfidence(abs($changePct)),
+            ],
+            default => [TrendDirection::Flat, 50],
+        };
+
+        $reasoning = sprintf(
+            '3-day EWMA ($%.2f) vs 7-day EWMA ($%.2f): %.2f%% %s.',
+            $ewma3,
+            $ewma7,
+            abs($changePct),
+            $direction === TrendDirection::Flat ? 'difference (flat)' : $direction->value,
+        );
+
+        return new PricePrediction([
+            'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
+            'source' => PredictionSource::Ewma,
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'confidence' => $confidence,
+            'reasoning' => $reasoning,
+            'generated_at' => now(),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    private function ewmaConfidence(float $changePct): int
+    {
+        $scaled = min($changePct / 5.0, 1.0) * self::EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE;
+
+        return (int) round(max(30, $scaled));
+    }
+}

app/Services/BrentPriceSources/BrentPriceFetchException.php

@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\BrentPriceSources;
+
+use RuntimeException;
+
+final class BrentPriceFetchException extends RuntimeException {}

app/Services/BrentPriceSources/EiaBrentPriceSource.php

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\BrentPriceSources;
+
+use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use Illuminate\Http\Client\ConnectionException;
+use Illuminate\Http\Client\RequestException;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
+use Throwable;
+
+final class EiaBrentPriceSource
+{
+    private const string URL = 'https://api.eia.gov/v2/petroleum/pri/spt/data/';
+
+    public function __construct(private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger) {}
+
+    /**
+     * @return array{date: string, price_usd: float}[]|null null only when the response carried no usable rows
+     *
+     * @throws BrentPriceFetchException on network failure or non-2xx response after retries
+     */
+    public function fetch(): ?array
+    {
+        try {
+            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('eia', 'GET', self::URL, fn () => Http::timeout(30)
+                ->retry(3, 200, fn (Throwable $e) => $this->shouldRetry($e))
+                ->throw()
+                ->get(self::URL, [
+                    'api_key' => config('services.eia.api_key'),
+                    'frequency' => 'daily',
+                    'data[0]' => 'value',
+                    'facets[series][]' => 'RBRTE',
+                    'sort[0][column]' => 'period',
+                    'sort[0][direction]' => 'desc',
+                    'length' => 30,
+                ]));
+        } catch (ConnectionException $e) {
+            throw new BrentPriceFetchException("EIA connection failed: {$e->getMessage()}", previous: $e);
+        } catch (RequestException $e) {
+            throw new BrentPriceFetchException("EIA returned HTTP {$e->response->status()}", previous: $e);
+        }
+
+        $rows = collect($response->json('response.data') ?? [])
+            ->filter(fn (array $row) => ($row['value'] ?? '.') !== '.')
+            ->map(fn (array $row) => [
+                'date' => $row['period'],
+                'price_usd' => (float) $row['value'],
+            ])
+            ->all();
+
+        return $rows === [] ? null : $rows;
+    }
+
+    private function shouldRetry(Throwable $e): bool
+    {
+        return $e instanceof ConnectionException
+            || ($e instanceof RequestException && $e->response->serverError());
+    }
+}

app/Services/BrentPriceSources/FredBrentPriceSource.php

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\BrentPriceSources;
+
+use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use Illuminate\Http\Client\ConnectionException;
+use Illuminate\Http\Client\RequestException;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
+use Throwable;
+
+final class FredBrentPriceSource
+{
+    private const string URL = 'https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations';
+
+    public function __construct(private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger) {}
+
+    /**
+     * @return array{date: string, price_usd: float}[]|null null only when the response carried no usable rows
+     *
+     * @throws BrentPriceFetchException on network failure or non-2xx response after retries
+     */
+    public function fetch(): ?array
+    {
+        try {
+            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('fred', 'GET', self::URL, fn () => Http::timeout(30)
+                ->retry(3, 200, fn (Throwable $e) => $this->shouldRetry($e))
+                ->throw()
+                ->get(self::URL, [
+                    'series_id' => 'DCOILBRENTEU',
+                    'api_key' => config('services.fred.api_key'),
+                    'sort_order' => 'desc',
+                    'limit' => 30,
+                    'file_type' => 'json',
+                ]));
+        } catch (ConnectionException $e) {
+            throw new BrentPriceFetchException("FRED connection failed: {$e->getMessage()}", previous: $e);
+        } catch (RequestException $e) {
+            throw new BrentPriceFetchException("FRED returned HTTP {$e->response->status()}", previous: $e);
+        }
+
+        $rows = collect($response->json('observations') ?? [])
+            ->filter(fn (array $obs) => $obs['value'] !== '.')
+            ->map(fn (array $obs) => [
+                'date' => $obs['date'],
+                'price_usd' => (float) $obs['value'],
+            ])
+            ->all();
+
+        return $rows === [] ? null : $rows;
+    }
+
+    private function shouldRetry(Throwable $e): bool
+    {
+        return $e instanceof ConnectionException
+            || ($e instanceof RequestException && $e->response->serverError());
+    }
+}

app/Services/Ewma.php

@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services;
+
+/**
+ * Exponentially-weighted moving average. Pure function — used by
+ * BrentPricePredictor for the EWMA fallback prediction and by
+ * AnthropicPredictionProvider to enrich the basic-flow prompt.
+ */
+final class Ewma
+{
+    public const float DEFAULT_ALPHA = 0.3;
+
+    /** @param  float[]  $prices  Chronological order (oldest first). */
+    public static function compute(array $prices, float $alpha = self::DEFAULT_ALPHA): float
+    {
+        $ema = $prices[0];
+
+        foreach (array_slice($prices, 1) as $price) {
+            $ema = $alpha * $price + (1 - $alpha) * $ema;
+        }
+
+        return round($ema, 4);
+    }
+}

app/Services/FuelPriceService.php

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ use App\Enums\FuelType;
 use App\Models\Station;
 use App\Models\StationPrice;
 use App\Models\StationPriceCurrent;
+use Carbon\CarbonInterface;
 use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Cache;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
@@ -17,6 +18,8 @@ class FuelPriceService
 {
     private const string TOKEN_CACHE_KEY = 'fuel_finder_access_token';
 
+    private const string LAST_PRICE_POLL_CACHE_KEY = 'fuel_finder_last_price_poll_at';
+
     /**
      * Per-fuel-type valid price range in pence (as returned by the API).
      * Based on UK all-time records + 30–75% headroom for future spikes.
@@ -42,7 +45,8 @@ class FuelPriceService
     {
         return Cache::remember(self::TOKEN_CACHE_KEY, 3540, function (): string {
             $url = config('services.fuel_finder.base_url').'/oauth/generate_access_token';
-            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('fuel_finder', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(10)
+            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('fuel_finder', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::retry(3, 500)
+                ->timeout(60)
                 ->post($url, [
                     'client_id' => config('services.fuel_finder.client_id'),
                     'client_secret' => config('services.fuel_finder.client_secret'),
@@ -55,51 +59,27 @@ class FuelPriceService
     /**
      * Poll the prices endpoint, deduplicate, and persist changes.
      *
+     * Uses incremental polling when a previous poll timestamp is cached — only
+     * stations with prices changed since then are returned by the API. Falls
+     * back to a full fetch on cold start (cache miss).
+     *
      * @return int Number of new price records inserted
      */
     public function pollPrices(): int
     {
-        $token = $this->getAccessToken();
+        $pollStartedAt = now();
-        $inserted = 0;
+        $since = Cache::get(self::LAST_PRICE_POLL_CACHE_KEY);
-        $batch = 1;
+        $sinceCarbon = $since instanceof CarbonInterface ? $since : null;
 
-        do {
+        [$inserted, $completedCleanly] = $this->iterateBatches(
-            try {
+            '/pfs/fuel-prices',
-                $baseUrl = config('services.fuel_finder.base_url').'/pfs/fuel-prices';
+            $sinceCarbon,
-                $params = ['batch-number' => $batch];
+            fn (array $stations): int => $this->processPriceBatch($stations),
-                $logUrl = $baseUrl.'?'.http_build_query($params);
+        );
-                $response = $this->apiLogger->send('fuel_finder', 'GET', $logUrl, fn () => Http::timeout(30)
-                    ->withToken($token)
-                    ->get($baseUrl, $params));
 
-                if ($response->notFound()) {
+        if ($completedCleanly) {
-                    break; // No more batches
+            Cache::forever(self::LAST_PRICE_POLL_CACHE_KEY, $pollStartedAt);
-                }
+        }
-
-                if (! $response->successful()) {
-                    Log::error('FuelPriceService: price batch returned error', [
-                        'batch' => $batch,
-                        'status' => $response->status(),
-                    ]);
-                    break;
-                }
-
-                $stations = $response->json() ?? [];
-            } catch (Throwable $e) {
-                Log::error('FuelPriceService: price batch fetch failed', [
-                    'batch' => $batch,
-                    'error' => $e->getMessage(),
-                ]);
-                break;
-            }
-
-            if (empty($stations)) {
-                break;
-            }
-
-            $inserted += $this->processPriceBatch($stations);
-            $batch++;
-        } while (true);
 
         return $inserted;
     }
@@ -109,25 +89,53 @@ class FuelPriceService
      * Called on full daily refresh before pollPrices().
      */
     public function refreshStations(): void
+    {
+        $this->iterateBatches('/pfs', null, function (array $stations): int {
+            $this->upsertStations($stations);
+
+            return 0;
+        });
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Drive a paginated fuel-finder endpoint until exhausted, calling
+     * $process on each non-empty batch. Returns the sum of $process return
+     * values plus a flag indicating the loop exited cleanly (404 or empty
+     * body) rather than via an HTTP error or thrown exception. Callers use
+     * the flag to decide whether to update incremental-poll bookkeeping.
+     *
+     * @param  callable(array<int, array<string, mixed>>): int  $process
+     * @return array{0: int, 1: bool}
+     */
+    private function iterateBatches(string $endpoint, ?CarbonInterface $since, callable $process): array
     {
         $token = $this->getAccessToken();
+        $baseUrl = config('services.fuel_finder.base_url').$endpoint;
+        $total = 0;
         $batch = 1;
+        $completedCleanly = false;
 
         do {
             try {
-                $baseUrl = config('services.fuel_finder.base_url').'/pfs';
                 $params = ['batch-number' => $batch];
+
+                if ($since !== null) {
+                    $params['effective-start-timestamp'] = $since->format('Y-m-d H:i:s');
+                }
+
                 $logUrl = $baseUrl.'?'.http_build_query($params);
                 $response = $this->apiLogger->send('fuel_finder', 'GET', $logUrl, fn () => Http::timeout(30)
                     ->withToken($token)
                     ->get($baseUrl, $params));
 
                 if ($response->notFound()) {
-                    break; // No more batches
+                    $completedCleanly = true;
+                    break;
                 }
 
                 if (! $response->successful()) {
-                    Log::error('FuelPriceService: station batch returned error', [
+                    Log::error('FuelPriceService: batch returned error', [
+                        'endpoint' => $endpoint,
                         'batch' => $batch,
                         'status' => $response->status(),
                     ]);
@@ -136,7 +144,8 @@ class FuelPriceService
 
                 $stations = $response->json() ?? [];
             } catch (Throwable $e) {
-                Log::error('FuelPriceService: station batch fetch failed', [
+                Log::error('FuelPriceService: batch fetch failed', [
+                    'endpoint' => $endpoint,
                     'batch' => $batch,
                     'error' => $e->getMessage(),
                 ]);
@@ -144,12 +153,15 @@ class FuelPriceService
             }
 
             if (empty($stations)) {
+                $completedCleanly = true;
                 break;
             }
 
-            $this->upsertStations($stations);
+            $total += $process($stations);
             $batch++;
         } while (true);
+
+        return [$total, $completedCleanly];
     }
 
     /** @param array<int, array<string, mixed>> $apiStations */
@@ -159,6 +171,14 @@ class FuelPriceService
         $rows = [];
 
         foreach ($apiStations as $data) {
+            if (! $this->hasRequiredStationFields($data)) {
+                Log::warning('FuelPriceService: station skipped — missing required fields', [
+                    'node_id' => $data['node_id'] ?? null,
+                ]);
+
+                continue;
+            }
+
             $station = new Station([
                 'node_id' => $data['node_id'],
                 'trading_name' => $data['trading_name'],
@@ -179,9 +199,9 @@ class FuelPriceService
                 'postcode' => $data['location']['postcode'],
                 'lat' => $data['location']['latitude'],
                 'lng' => $data['location']['longitude'],
-                'amenities' => $data['amenities'] ?? [],
+                'amenities' => $this->flattenEnabledFlags($data['amenities'] ?? []),
                 'opening_times' => $data['opening_times'] ?? null,
-                'fuel_types' => $data['fuel_types'] ?? [],
+                'fuel_types' => $this->flattenEnabledFlags($data['fuel_types'] ?? []),
                 'last_seen_at' => $now,
             ]);
 
@@ -189,7 +209,40 @@ class FuelPriceService
             $rows[] = $station->getAttributes();
         }
 
-        Station::upsert($rows, ['node_id'], array_keys($rows[0] ?? []));
+        if ($rows === []) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        Station::upsert($rows, ['node_id'], array_keys($rows[0]));
+    }
+
+    /** @param array<string, mixed> $data */
+    private function hasRequiredStationFields(array $data): bool
+    {
+        return ! empty($data['node_id'])
+            && ! empty($data['trading_name'])
+            && isset($data['location']['postcode'], $data['location']['latitude'], $data['location']['longitude']);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * The API returns `amenities` and `fuel_types` as objects with boolean
+     * flags (e.g. {"E10": true, "car_wash": false}). Flatten to a list of
+     * enabled keys. If the payload is already an array of strings, return as-is.
+     *
+     * @param  array<string, bool>|array<int, string>  $flags
+     * @return array<int, string>
+     */
+    private function flattenEnabledFlags(array $flags): array
+    {
+        if ($flags === []) {
+            return [];
+        }
+
+        if (array_is_list($flags)) {
+            return array_values($flags);
+        }
+
+        return array_values(array_keys(array_filter($flags, fn ($v) => filter_var($v, FILTER_VALIDATE_BOOLEAN))));
     }
 
     private function isValidPrice(FuelType $fuelType, float $pricePence): bool
@@ -216,8 +269,22 @@ class FuelPriceService
     {
         $stationIds = array_column($apiBatch, 'node_id');
 
+        // Filter to stations that exist in the stations table — prevents FK
+        // violations when the API surfaces a station before the next metadata
+        // refresh picks it up.
+        $knownStationIds = array_flip(
+            Station::whereIn('node_id', $stationIds)->pluck('node_id')->all(),
+        );
+
+        $unknown = array_diff($stationIds, array_keys($knownStationIds));
+        if ($unknown !== []) {
+            Log::info('FuelPriceService: skipped prices for unknown stations', [
+                'count' => count($unknown),
+            ]);
+        }
+
         // Load current prices for all stations in this batch in one query
-        $currentPrices = StationPriceCurrent::whereIn('station_id', $stationIds)
+        $currentPrices = StationPriceCurrent::whereIn('station_id', array_keys($knownStationIds))
             ->get()
             ->groupBy('station_id')
             ->map(fn ($rows) => $rows->keyBy(fn ($r) => $r->fuel_type->value));
@@ -227,9 +294,17 @@ class FuelPriceService
         $upsertRows = [];
 
         foreach ($apiBatch as $station) {
-            $stationId = $station['node_id'];
+            $stationId = $station['node_id'] ?? null;
+
+            if ($stationId === null || ! isset($knownStationIds[$stationId])) {
+                continue;
+            }
 
             foreach ($station['fuel_prices'] ?? [] as $priceData) {
+                if (! isset($priceData['fuel_type'], $priceData['price'], $priceData['price_last_updated'], $priceData['price_change_effective_timestamp'])) {
+                    continue;
+                }
+
                 try {
                     $fuelType = FuelType::fromApiValue($priceData['fuel_type']);
                 } catch (ValueError) {

app/Services/HaversineQuery.php

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services;
+
+/**
+ * Builds canonical haversine SQL fragments for distance and within-radius
+ * filtering. Centralises the float-clamping (GREATEST/LEAST) and the column
+ * naming convention used across prediction and station search queries.
+ *
+ * Assumes the joined/queried table exposes columns `lat` and `lng`.
+ */
+final class HaversineQuery
+{
+    private const string DISTANCE_KM_SQL =
+        '(6371 * acos(GREATEST(-1.0, LEAST(1.0, '
+        .'cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?)) '
+        .'+ sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))))))';
+
+    /**
+     * Bare distance-in-km expression. Caller adds aliasing or comparison.
+     *
+     * @return array{0: string, 1: array{float, float, float}}
+     */
+    public static function distanceKm(float $lat, float $lng): array
+    {
+        return [self::DISTANCE_KM_SQL, [$lat, $lng, $lat]];
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * `<= {km}` predicate suitable for whereRaw. The radius is embedded as a
+     * numeric literal because PDO + SQLite's whereRaw binds floats as strings
+     * by default, which breaks numeric comparison against the haversine
+     * expression. The `float` parameter is type-checked and not user input.
+     *
+     * @return array{0: string, 1: array{float, float, float}}
+     */
+    public static function withinKm(float $lat, float $lng, float $km): array
+    {
+        return [self::DISTANCE_KM_SQL.' <= '.sprintf('%F', $km), [$lat, $lng, $lat]];
+    }
+}

app/Services/LlmPrediction/AbstractLlmPredictionProvider.php

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\LlmPrediction;
+
+use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
+use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
+use App\Models\BrentPrice;
+use App\Models\PricePrediction;
+use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
+use Throwable;
+
+abstract class AbstractLlmPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
+{
+    protected const int LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 85;
+
+    public function __construct(
+        protected readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
+    ) {}
+
+    /**
+     * Default flow: gate on API key, call the provider, normalise the payload
+     * to a PricePrediction. Subclasses with multi-phase flows (e.g. Anthropic
+     * web-search) override `predict()` directly and reuse the helper methods.
+     */
+    public function predict(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
+    {
+        $apiKey = $this->apiKey();
+
+        if ($apiKey === null) {
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        try {
+            $payload = $this->callProvider($apiKey, $this->buildPriceList($prices));
+
+            return $payload === null ? null : $this->buildPrediction($payload);
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            Log::error(static::class.': predict failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+
+            return null;
+        }
+    }
+
+    /** Returns the configured API key or null if not set. */
+    abstract protected function apiKey(): ?string;
+
+    /**
+     * Make the provider HTTP call and return the normalised payload, or null
+     * on failure (already logged by the implementer).
+     *
+     * @return array{direction: string, confidence: int, reasoning: string}|null
+     */
+    abstract protected function callProvider(string $apiKey, string $priceList): ?array;
+
+    /** @param  Collection<int, BrentPrice>  $prices */
+    protected function buildPriceList(Collection $prices): string
+    {
+        return $prices->sortBy('date')
+            ->map(fn (BrentPrice $p) => $p->date->toDateString().': $'.$p->price_usd)
+            ->implode("\n");
+    }
+
+    /** @param  array{direction: string, confidence: int, reasoning: string}  $input */
+    protected function buildPrediction(array $input, PredictionSource $source = PredictionSource::Llm): ?PricePrediction
+    {
+        $direction = TrendDirection::tryFrom($input['direction'] ?? '');
+
+        if ($direction === null) {
+            Log::error(static::class.': invalid direction', ['input' => $input]);
+
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        return new PricePrediction([
+            'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
+            'source' => $source,
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'confidence' => min((int) ($input['confidence'] ?? 0), self::LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE),
+            'reasoning' => $input['reasoning'] ?? '',
+            'generated_at' => now(),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    protected function defaultPrompt(string $priceList): string
+    {
+        return <<<PROMPT
+            You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
+            Predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
+
+            Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
+            {$priceList}
+
+            Respond with direction (rising, falling, or flat), a confidence score (0–85),
+            and a one-sentence reasoning.
+            PROMPT;
+    }
+}

app/Services/LlmPrediction/AnthropicPredictionProvider.php

@@ -3,31 +3,23 @@
 namespace App\Services\LlmPrediction;
 
 use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
-use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
-use App\Models\BrentPrice;
 use App\Models\PricePrediction;
-use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use App\Services\Ewma;
 use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
 use Throwable;
 
-class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
+class AnthropicPredictionProvider extends AbstractLlmPredictionProvider
 {
-    private const int LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 85;
-
-    private const float EWMA_ALPHA = 0.3;
-
-    public function __construct(
-        private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
-    ) {}
-
     /**
      * Tries web-search-enriched prediction first, falls back to basic tool use.
+     * Overrides the parent flow because Anthropic uses two phases (web search
+     * loop + forced tool call) and selects the source dynamically.
      */
     public function predict(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
     {
-        if (! config('services.anthropic.api_key')) {
+        if ($this->apiKey() === null) {
             return null;
         }
 
@@ -36,10 +28,21 @@ class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
         return $prediction ?? $this->predictBasic($prices);
     }
 
+    protected function apiKey(): ?string
+    {
+        return config('services.anthropic.api_key');
+    }
+
+    /** {@inheritDoc} */
+    protected function callProvider(string $apiKey, string $priceList): ?array
+    {
+        return null;
+    }
+
     /**
      * Multi-turn web search phase, then a forced submit_prediction call.
-     * Phase 1: Let the model search for recent oil/geopolitical news (pause_turn loop).
+     * Phase 1: let the model search for recent oil/geopolitical news.
-     * Phase 2: Force submit_prediction with the full conversation context.
+     * Phase 2: force submit_prediction with the full conversation context.
      */
     private function predictWithWebContext(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
     {
@@ -47,7 +50,6 @@ class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
         $url = 'https://api.anthropic.com/v1/messages';
 
         try {
-            // Phase 1: web search loop
             for ($i = 0, $response = null; $i < 5; $i++) {
                 $response = $this->apiLogger->send('anthropic', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(30)
                     ->withHeaders($this->headers())
@@ -59,7 +61,7 @@ class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
                     ]));
 
                 if (! $response->successful()) {
-                    Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: context search request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
+                    Log::error(self::class.': context search request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
 
                     return null;
                 }
@@ -71,7 +73,6 @@ class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
                 $messages[] = ['role' => 'assistant', 'content' => $response->json('content')];
             }
 
-            // Phase 2: forced submit with full context
             $messages[] = ['role' => 'assistant', 'content' => $response->json('content')];
             $messages[] = ['role' => 'user', 'content' => 'Now submit your prediction using the submit_prediction tool.'];
 
@@ -86,22 +87,61 @@ class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
                 ]));
 
             if (! $submitResponse->successful()) {
-                Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: context submit request failed', ['status' => $submitResponse->status()]);
+                Log::error(self::class.': context submit request failed', ['status' => $submitResponse->status()]);
 
                 return null;
             }
 
             $input = $this->extractToolInput($submitResponse->json('content') ?? []);
 
-            if ($input === null) {
+            return $input === null
-                Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: no tool_use block in context submit response');
+                ? null
+                : $this->buildPrediction($input, PredictionSource::LlmWithContext);
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            Log::error(self::class.': predictWithWebContext failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+
+            return null;
+        }
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Single-turn prediction using a forced submit_prediction tool call.
+     * Guarantees structured output — no JSON parsing needed.
+     */
+    private function predictBasic(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
+    {
+        $chronological = $prices->sortBy('date');
+        $ewma3 = Ewma::compute($chronological->take(-3)->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
+        $ewma7 = Ewma::compute($chronological->take(-7)->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
+        $ewma14 = Ewma::compute($chronological->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
+
+        $url = 'https://api.anthropic.com/v1/messages';
+
+        try {
+            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('anthropic', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
+                ->withHeaders($this->headers())
+                ->post($url, [
+                    'model' => config('services.anthropic.model', 'claude-haiku-4-5-20251001'),
+                    'max_tokens' => 256,
+                    'tools' => [$this->submitPredictionTool()],
+                    'tool_choice' => ['type' => 'tool', 'name' => 'submit_prediction'],
+                    'messages' => [[
+                        'role' => 'user',
+                        'content' => $this->basicPrompt($this->buildPriceList($prices), $ewma3, $ewma7, $ewma14),
+                    ]],
+                ]));
+
+            if (! $response->successful()) {
+                Log::error(self::class.': basic request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
 
                 return null;
             }
 
-            return $this->buildPrediction($input, PredictionSource::LlmWithContext);
+            $input = $this->extractToolInput($response->json('content') ?? []);
+
+            return $input === null ? null : $this->buildPrediction($input);
         } catch (Throwable $e) {
-            Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: predictWithWebContext failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+            Log::error(self::class.': predictBasic failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
 
             return null;
         }
@@ -126,18 +166,29 @@ class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
             PROMPT;
     }
 
-    private function buildPriceList(Collection $prices): string
+    private function basicPrompt(string $priceList, float $ewma3, float $ewma7, float $ewma14): string
     {
-        return $prices->sortBy('date')
+        return <<<PROMPT
-            ->map(fn (BrentPrice $p) => $p->date->toDateString().': $'.$p->price_usd)
+            You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
-            ->implode("\n");
+            Predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
+
+            Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
+            {$priceList}
+
+            Pre-computed indicators:
+            - 3-day EWMA:  \${$ewma3}
+            - 7-day EWMA:  \${$ewma7}
+            - 14-day EWMA: \${$ewma14}
+
+            Use the submit_prediction tool to submit your answer.
+            PROMPT;
     }
 
     /** @return array<string, string> */
     private function headers(): array
     {
         return [
-            'x-api-key' => config('services.anthropic.api_key'),
+            'x-api-key' => $this->apiKey(),
             'anthropic-version' => '2023-06-01',
         ];
     }
@@ -177,108 +228,4 @@ class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
 
         return $block['input'] ?? null;
     }
-
-    /** @param  array{direction: string, confidence: int, reasoning: string}  $input */
-    private function buildPrediction(array $input, PredictionSource $source): ?PricePrediction
-    {
-        $direction = TrendDirection::tryFrom($input['direction'] ?? '');
-
-        if ($direction === null) {
-            Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: invalid direction in tool input', ['input' => $input]);
-
-            return null;
-        }
-
-        return new PricePrediction([
-            'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
-            'source' => $source,
-            'direction' => $direction,
-            'confidence' => min((int) $input['confidence'], self::LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE),
-            'reasoning' => $input['reasoning'],
-            'generated_at' => now(),
-        ]);
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Single-turn prediction using a forced submit_prediction tool call.
-     * Guarantees structured output — no JSON parsing needed.
-     */
-    private function predictBasic(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
-    {
-        $chronological = $prices->sortBy('date');
-        $ewma3 = $this->computeEwma($chronological->take(-3)->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
-        $ewma7 = $this->computeEwma($chronological->take(-7)->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
-        $ewma14 = $this->computeEwma($chronological->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
-
-        $priceList = $this->buildPriceList($prices);
-
-        $url = 'https://api.anthropic.com/v1/messages';
-
-        try {
-            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('anthropic', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
-                ->withHeaders($this->headers())
-                ->post($url, [
-                    'model' => config('services.anthropic.model', 'claude-haiku-4-5-20251001'),
-                    'max_tokens' => 256,
-                    'tools' => [$this->submitPredictionTool()],
-                    'tool_choice' => ['type' => 'tool', 'name' => 'submit_prediction'],
-                    'messages' => [[
-                        'role' => 'user',
-                        'content' => $this->basicPrompt($priceList, $ewma3, $ewma7, $ewma14),
-                    ]],
-                ]));
-
-            if (! $response->successful()) {
-                Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: basic request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            $input = $this->extractToolInput($response->json('content') ?? []);
-
-            if ($input === null) {
-                Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: no tool_use block in basic response');
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            return $this->buildPrediction($input, PredictionSource::Llm);
-        } catch (Throwable $e) {
-            Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: predictBasic failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
-
-            return null;
-        }
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * @param  float[]  $prices  Chronological order (oldest first)
-     */
-    private function computeEwma(array $prices): float
-    {
-        $ema = $prices[0];
-
-        foreach (array_slice($prices, 1) as $price) {
-            $ema = self::EWMA_ALPHA * $price + (1 - self::EWMA_ALPHA) * $ema;
-        }
-
-        return round($ema, 4);
-    }
-
-    private function basicPrompt(string $priceList, float $ewma3, float $ewma7, float $ewma14): string
-    {
-        return <<<PROMPT
-            You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
-            Predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
-
-            Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
-            {$priceList}
-
-            Pre-computed indicators:
-            - 3-day EWMA:  \${$ewma3}
-            - 7-day EWMA:  \${$ewma7}
-            - 14-day EWMA: \${$ewma14}
-
-            Use the submit_prediction tool to submit your answer.
-            PROMPT;
-    }
 }

app/Services/LlmPrediction/GeminiPredictionProvider.php

@@ -2,110 +2,59 @@
 
 namespace App\Services\LlmPrediction;
 
-use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
-use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
-use App\Models\BrentPrice;
-use App\Models\PricePrediction;
-use App\Services\ApiLogger;
-use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
-use Throwable;
 
-class GeminiPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
+class GeminiPredictionProvider extends AbstractLlmPredictionProvider
 {
-    private const int LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 85;
+    protected function apiKey(): ?string
-
-    public function __construct(
-        private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
-    ) {}
-
-    public function predict(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
     {
-        if (! config('services.gemini.api_key')) {
+        return config('services.gemini.api_key');
-            return null;
+    }
-        }
-
-        $priceList = $prices->sortBy('date')
-            ->map(fn (BrentPrice $p) => $p->date->toDateString().': $'.$p->price_usd)
-            ->implode("\n");
 
+    protected function callProvider(string $apiKey, string $priceList): ?array
+    {
         $model = config('services.gemini.model', 'gemini-2.0-flash');
         $url = "https://generativelanguage.googleapis.com/v1beta/models/{$model}:generateContent";
 
-        try {
+        $response = $this->apiLogger->send('gemini', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
-            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('gemini', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
+            ->withQueryParameters(['key' => $apiKey])
-                ->withQueryParameters(['key' => config('services.gemini.api_key')])
+            ->post($url, [
-                ->post($url, [
+                'contents' => [[
-                    'contents' => [[
+                    'parts' => [['text' => $this->defaultPrompt($priceList)]],
-                        'parts' => [['text' => $this->prompt($priceList)]],
+                ]],
-                    ]],
+                'generationConfig' => [
-                    'generationConfig' => [
+                    'responseMimeType' => 'application/json',
-                        'responseMimeType' => 'application/json',
+                    'responseSchema' => [
-                        'responseSchema' => [
+                        'type' => 'OBJECT',
-                            'type' => 'OBJECT',
+                        'properties' => [
-                            'properties' => [
+                            'direction' => [
-                                'direction' => [
+                                'type' => 'STRING',
-                                    'type' => 'STRING',
+                                'enum' => ['rising', 'falling', 'flat'],
-                                    'enum' => ['rising', 'falling', 'flat'],
-                                ],
-                                'confidence' => ['type' => 'INTEGER'],
-                                'reasoning' => ['type' => 'STRING'],
                             ],
-                            'required' => ['direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning'],
+                            'confidence' => ['type' => 'INTEGER'],
+                            'reasoning' => ['type' => 'STRING'],
                         ],
+                        'required' => ['direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning'],
                     ],
-                ]));
+                ],
+            ]));
 
-            if (! $response->successful()) {
+        if (! $response->successful()) {
-                Log::error('GeminiPredictionProvider: request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
+            Log::error(self::class.': request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            $text = $response->json('candidates.0.content.parts.0.text') ?? '';
-            $data = json_decode($text, true);
-
-            if (! isset($data['direction'], $data['confidence'], $data['reasoning'])) {
-                Log::error('GeminiPredictionProvider: unexpected response format', ['text' => $text]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            $direction = TrendDirection::tryFrom($data['direction']);
-
-            if ($direction === null) {
-                Log::error('GeminiPredictionProvider: invalid direction', ['direction' => $data['direction']]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            return new PricePrediction([
-                'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
-                'source' => PredictionSource::Llm,
-                'direction' => $direction,
-                'confidence' => min((int) $data['confidence'], self::LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE),
-                'reasoning' => $data['reasoning'],
-                'generated_at' => now(),
-            ]);
-        } catch (Throwable $e) {
-            Log::error('GeminiPredictionProvider: predict failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
 
             return null;
         }
-    }
 
-    private function prompt(string $priceList): string
+        $text = $response->json('candidates.0.content.parts.0.text') ?? '';
-    {
+        $data = json_decode($text, true);
-        return <<<PROMPT
-            You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
-            Predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
 
-            Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
+        if (! isset($data['direction'], $data['confidence'], $data['reasoning'])) {
-            {$priceList}
+            Log::error(self::class.': unexpected response format', ['text' => $text]);
 
-            Respond with direction (rising, falling, or flat), a confidence score (0–85),
+            return null;
-            and a one-sentence reasoning.
+        }
-            PROMPT;
+
+        return $data;
     }
 }

app/Services/LlmPrediction/OpenAiPredictionProvider.php

@@ -2,112 +2,61 @@
 
 namespace App\Services\LlmPrediction;
 
-use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
-use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
-use App\Models\BrentPrice;
-use App\Models\PricePrediction;
-use App\Services\ApiLogger;
-use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
-use Throwable;
 
-class OpenAiPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
+class OpenAiPredictionProvider extends AbstractLlmPredictionProvider
 {
-    private const int LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 85;
+    protected function apiKey(): ?string
-
-    public function __construct(
-        private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
-    ) {}
-
-    public function predict(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
     {
-        if (! config('services.openai.api_key')) {
+        return config('services.openai.api_key');
-            return null;
+    }
-        }
-
-        $priceList = $prices->sortBy('date')
-            ->map(fn (BrentPrice $p) => $p->date->toDateString().': $'.$p->price_usd)
-            ->implode("\n");
 
+    protected function callProvider(string $apiKey, string $priceList): ?array
+    {
         $url = 'https://api.openai.com/v1/chat/completions';
 
-        try {
+        $response = $this->apiLogger->send('openai', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
-            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('openai', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
+            ->withToken($apiKey)
-                ->withToken(config('services.openai.api_key'))
+            ->post($url, [
-                ->post($url, [
+                'model' => config('services.openai.model', 'gpt-4o-mini'),
-                    'model' => config('services.openai.model', 'gpt-4o-mini'),
+                'response_format' => [
-                    'response_format' => [
+                    'type' => 'json_schema',
-                        'type' => 'json_schema',
+                    'json_schema' => [
-                        'json_schema' => [
+                        'name' => 'oil_prediction',
-                            'name' => 'oil_prediction',
+                        'strict' => true,
-                            'strict' => true,
+                        'schema' => [
-                            'schema' => [
+                            'type' => 'object',
-                                'type' => 'object',
+                            'properties' => [
-                                'properties' => [
+                                'direction' => ['type' => 'string', 'enum' => ['rising', 'falling', 'flat']],
-                                    'direction' => ['type' => 'string', 'enum' => ['rising', 'falling', 'flat']],
+                                'confidence' => ['type' => 'integer'],
-                                    'confidence' => ['type' => 'integer'],
+                                'reasoning' => ['type' => 'string'],
-                                    'reasoning' => ['type' => 'string'],
-                                ],
-                                'required' => ['direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning'],
-                                'additionalProperties' => false,
                             ],
+                            'required' => ['direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning'],
+                            'additionalProperties' => false,
                         ],
                     ],
-                    'messages' => [[
+                ],
-                        'role' => 'user',
+                'messages' => [[
-                        'content' => $this->prompt($priceList),
+                    'role' => 'user',
-                    ]],
+                    'content' => $this->defaultPrompt($priceList),
-                ]));
+                ]],
+            ]));
 
-            if (! $response->successful()) {
+        if (! $response->successful()) {
-                Log::error('OpenAiPredictionProvider: request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
+            Log::error(self::class.': request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            $data = json_decode($response->json('choices.0.message.content') ?? '{}', true);
-
-            if (! isset($data['direction'], $data['confidence'], $data['reasoning'])) {
-                Log::error('OpenAiPredictionProvider: unexpected response format', ['data' => $data]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            $direction = TrendDirection::tryFrom($data['direction']);
-
-            if ($direction === null) {
-                Log::error('OpenAiPredictionProvider: invalid direction', ['direction' => $data['direction']]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            return new PricePrediction([
-                'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
-                'source' => PredictionSource::Llm,
-                'direction' => $direction,
-                'confidence' => min((int) $data['confidence'], self::LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE),
-                'reasoning' => $data['reasoning'],
-                'generated_at' => now(),
-            ]);
-        } catch (Throwable $e) {
-            Log::error('OpenAiPredictionProvider: predict failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
 
             return null;
         }
-    }
 
-    private function prompt(string $priceList): string
+        $data = json_decode($response->json('choices.0.message.content') ?? '{}', true);
-    {
-        return <<<PROMPT
-            You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
-            Predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
 
-            Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
+        if (! isset($data['direction'], $data['confidence'], $data['reasoning'])) {
-            {$priceList}
+            Log::error(self::class.': unexpected response format', ['data' => $data]);
 
-            Respond with direction (rising, falling, or flat), a confidence score (0–85),
+            return null;
-            and a one-sentence reasoning.
+        }
-            PROMPT;
+
+        return $data;
     }
 }

app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php

@@ -4,16 +4,31 @@ namespace App\Services;
 
 use App\Enums\FuelType;
 use App\Models\StationPriceCurrent;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\BrandBehaviourSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\DayOfWeekSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\OilSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\RegionalMomentumSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\SignalContext;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\StickinessSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\TrendSignal;
+use Carbon\CarbonInterface;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
 
 class NationalFuelPredictionService
 {
-    private const float R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD = 0.5;
-
     private const float SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE = 0.3;
 
     private const int PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS = 7;
 
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly TrendSignal $trendSignal,
+        private readonly DayOfWeekSignal $dayOfWeekSignal,
+        private readonly BrandBehaviourSignal $brandBehaviourSignal,
+        private readonly StickinessSignal $stickinessSignal,
+        private readonly RegionalMomentumSignal $regionalMomentumSignal,
+        private readonly OilSignal $oilSignal,
+    ) {}
+
     /**
      * @return array{
      *     fuel_type: string,
@@ -34,19 +49,19 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
     {
         $fuelType = FuelType::E10;
         $hasCoordinates = $lat !== null && $lng !== null;
+        $context = new SignalContext($fuelType, $lat, $lng);
 
         $currentAvg = $this->getCurrentAverage($fuelType, $lat, $lng);
-        $trend = $this->computeTrendSignal($fuelType);
+        $trend = $this->trendSignal->compute($context);
-        $dayOfWeek = $this->computeDayOfWeekSignal($fuelType);
+        $dayOfWeek = $this->dayOfWeekSignal->compute($context);
-        $brandBehaviour = $this->computeBrandBehaviourSignal($fuelType);
+        $brandBehaviour = $this->brandBehaviourSignal->compute($context);
-        $stickiness = $this->computeStickinessSignal($fuelType);
+        $stickiness = $this->stickinessSignal->compute($context);
+        $oil = $this->oilSignal->compute($context);
 
         $nationalMomentum = $this->disabledSignal('National momentum disabled for national predictions');
-        $regionalMomentum = $hasCoordinates
+        $regionalMomentum = $this->regionalMomentumSignal->compute($context);
-            ? $this->computeRegionalMomentumSignal($fuelType, $lat, $lng)
-            : $this->disabledSignal('No coordinates provided for regional momentum analysis');
 
-        $signals = compact('trend', 'dayOfWeek', 'brandBehaviour', 'nationalMomentum', 'regionalMomentum', 'stickiness');
+        $signals = compact('trend', 'dayOfWeek', 'brandBehaviour', 'nationalMomentum', 'regionalMomentum', 'stickiness', 'oil');
 
         [$direction, $confidenceScore] = $this->aggregateSignals($signals, $hasCoordinates);
 
@@ -65,6 +80,8 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
             default => 'no_signal',
         };
 
+        $weeklySummary = $this->computeWeeklySummary($fuelType, $lat, $lng, $currentAvg, $slope);
+
         return [
             'fuel_type' => $fuelType->value,
             'current_avg' => $currentAvg,
@@ -73,10 +90,11 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
             'confidence_score' => $confidenceScore,
             'confidence_label' => $confidenceLabel,
             'action' => $action,
-            'reasoning' => $this->buildReasoning($direction, $slope, $trend, $brandBehaviour),
+            'reasoning' => $this->buildReasoning($direction, $slope, $trend, $brandBehaviour, $dayOfWeek),
             'prediction_horizon_days' => self::PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS,
             'region_key' => $hasCoordinates ? 'regional' : 'national',
             'methodology' => 'multi_signal_live_fallback',
+            'weekly_summary' => $weeklySummary,
             'signals' => [
                 'trend' => $trend,
                 'day_of_week' => $dayOfWeek,
@@ -84,6 +102,7 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
                 'national_momentum' => $nationalMomentum,
                 'regional_momentum' => $regionalMomentum,
                 'price_stickiness' => $stickiness,
+                'oil' => $oil,
             ],
         ];
     }
@@ -91,10 +110,12 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
     private function getCurrentAverage(FuelType $fuelType, ?float $lat, ?float $lng): float
     {
         if ($lat !== null && $lng !== null) {
+            [$radiusSql, $radiusBindings] = HaversineQuery::withinKm($lat, $lng, 50);
+
             $avg = DB::table('station_prices_current')
                 ->join('stations', 'station_prices_current.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
                 ->where('station_prices_current.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-                ->whereRaw('(6371 * acos(LEAST(1.0, cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?)) + sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))))) <= 50', [$lat, $lng, $lat])
+                ->whereRaw($radiusSql, $radiusBindings)
                 ->avg('station_prices_current.price_pence');
 
             if ($avg !== null) {
@@ -107,285 +128,6 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
         return $avg !== null ? round((float) $avg / 100, 1) : 0.0;
     }
 
-    /**
-     * Linear regression on daily national average prices.
-     * Tries 5-day lookback first; falls back to 14-day if R² < threshold.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool, slope: float, r_squared: float}
-     */
-    private function computeTrendSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
-    {
-        foreach ([5, 14] as $lookbackDays) {
-            $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-                ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-                ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays($lookbackDays))
-                ->selectRaw('DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price')
-                ->groupBy('day')
-                ->orderBy('day')
-                ->get();
-
-            if ($rows->count() < 2) {
-                continue;
-            }
-
-            $regression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all());
-
-            if ($regression['r_squared'] >= self::R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD) {
-                $slope = $regression['slope'];
-                $direction = match (true) {
-                    $slope >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
-                    $slope <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
-                    default => 'stable',
-                };
-                $absSlope = abs($slope);
-                $score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : min(1.0, $absSlope / 2.0) * ($slope > 0 ? 1 : -1);
-                $projected = round($slope * $lookbackDays, 1);
-                $detail = $direction === 'stable'
-                    ? "Prices flat over {$lookbackDays} days (slope: {$slope}p/day, R²={$regression['r_squared']})"
-                    : sprintf(
-                        '%s at %sp/day over %d days (R²=%s, ~%s%sp in %dd)',
-                        $slope > 0 ? 'Rising' : 'Falling',
-                        abs(round($slope, 2)),
-                        $lookbackDays,
-                        round($regression['r_squared'], 2),
-                        $projected > 0 ? '+' : '',
-                        $projected,
-                        self::PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS,
-                    );
-
-                if ($lookbackDays === 5) {
-                    $detail .= ' [Adaptive lookback active]';
-                }
-
-                return [
-                    'score' => $score,
-                    'confidence' => min(1.0, $regression['r_squared']),
-                    'direction' => $direction,
-                    'detail' => $detail,
-                    'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-                    'enabled' => true,
-                    'slope' => round($slope, 3),
-                    'r_squared' => round($regression['r_squared'], 3),
-                ];
-            }
-        }
-
-        return [
-            'score' => 0.0,
-            'confidence' => 0.0,
-            'direction' => 'stable',
-            'detail' => 'Insufficient price history or noisy data (R² below threshold)',
-            'data_points' => 0,
-            'enabled' => false,
-            'slope' => 0.0,
-            'r_squared' => 0.0,
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Compare today's average price against the per-weekday average over 90 days.
-     * Requires 56+ days of history to activate.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
-     */
-    private function computeDayOfWeekSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
-    {
-        $isSqlite = DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite';
-        $dowExpr = $isSqlite
-            ? "(CAST(strftime('%w', price_effective_at) AS INTEGER) + 1)"
-            : 'DAYOFWEEK(price_effective_at)';
-
-        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-            ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-            ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(90))
-            ->selectRaw("{$dowExpr} as dow, DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price")
-            ->groupBy('dow', 'day')
-            ->get();
-
-        $uniqueDays = $rows->pluck('day')->unique()->count();
-
-        if ($uniqueDays < 56) {
-            return $this->disabledSignal("Insufficient history for day-of-week pattern ({$uniqueDays} days, need 56)");
-        }
-
-        $dowAverages = $rows->groupBy('dow')->map(fn ($g) => $g->avg('avg_price'));
-        $weekAvg = $dowAverages->avg();
-        $todayDow = (int) now()->format('w') + 1; // PHP 0=Sun → MySQL 1=Sun
-        $todayAvg = $dowAverages->get($todayDow, $weekAvg);
-        $cheapestDow = $dowAverages->keys()->sortBy(fn ($k) => $dowAverages[$k])->first();
-        $dayNames = ['Sun', 'Mon', 'Tue', 'Wed', 'Thu', 'Fri', 'Sat'];
-        $cheapestDayName = $dayNames[($cheapestDow - 1) % 7] ?? 'Unknown';
-        $weekRange = round(($dowAverages->max() - $dowAverages->min()) / 100, 1);
-        $tomorrowDelta = round(($dowAverages->get(($todayDow % 7) + 1, $weekAvg) - $todayAvg) / 100, 1);
-
-        $direction = match (true) {
-            ($todayAvg - $weekAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'up',
-            ($weekAvg - $todayAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'down',
-            default => 'stable',
-        };
-
-        $score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0);
-
-        return [
-            'score' => $score,
-            'confidence' => min(1.0, $uniqueDays / 90),
-            'direction' => $direction,
-            'detail' => "Cheapest day: {$cheapestDayName}. Weekly range: {$weekRange}p. Tomorrow typically {$tomorrowDelta}p less than today.",
-            'data_points' => $uniqueDays,
-            'enabled' => true,
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Compare supermarket vs non-supermarket 7-day price trend.
-     * Detects divergence where one group has moved but the other hasn't yet.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
-     */
-    private function computeBrandBehaviourSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
-    {
-        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-            ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
-            ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-            ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(7))
-            ->selectRaw('stations.is_supermarket, DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
-            ->groupBy('stations.is_supermarket', 'day')
-            ->orderBy('day')
-            ->get();
-
-        $supermarket = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 1)->values();
-        $major = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 0)->values();
-
-        if ($supermarket->count() < 2 || $major->count() < 2) {
-            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient brand data for comparison');
-        }
-
-        $supermarketSlope = $this->linearRegression($supermarket->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
-        $majorSlope = $this->linearRegression($major->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
-
-        $divergence = round(abs($supermarketSlope - $majorSlope) * 7, 1);
-        $supermarketChange = round($supermarketSlope * 7, 1);
-        $majorChange = round($majorSlope * 7, 1);
-
-        if ($divergence < 1.0) {
-            return [
-                'score' => 0.0,
-                'confidence' => 0.5,
-                'direction' => 'stable',
-                'detail' => 'Supermarkets and majors moving in sync.',
-                'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-                'enabled' => true,
-            ];
-        }
-
-        $leaderChange = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? $supermarketChange : $majorChange;
-        $direction = $leaderChange > 0 ? 'up' : 'down';
-        $leader = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? 'Supermarkets' : 'Majors';
-        $follower = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? 'majors' : 'supermarkets';
-        $leaderAbs = abs($leaderChange);
-        $followerChange = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? abs($majorChange) : abs($supermarketChange);
-
-        return [
-            'score' => $direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0,
-            'confidence' => min(1.0, $divergence / 5.0),
-            'direction' => $direction,
-            'detail' => "{$leader} ".($leaderChange > 0 ? 'rose' : 'fell')." {$leaderAbs}p vs {$follower} {$followerChange}p (divergence: {$divergence}p). Expect {$follower} to follow.",
-            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-            'enabled' => true,
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Average hold duration (days between price changes) as a confidence modifier.
-     * Requires 30+ days of history. Returns a score between -0.1 and +0.1.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
-     */
-    private function computeStickinessSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
-    {
-        $isSqlite = DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite';
-        $diffExpr = $isSqlite
-            ? 'CAST((julianday(MAX(price_effective_at)) - julianday(MIN(price_effective_at))) AS INTEGER)'
-            : 'DATEDIFF(MAX(price_effective_at), MIN(price_effective_at))';
-
-        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-            ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-            ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(30))
-            ->selectRaw("station_id, COUNT(*) as changes, {$diffExpr} as span_days")
-            ->groupBy('station_id')
-            ->having('changes', '>', 1)
-            ->having('span_days', '>', 0)
-            ->get();
-
-        if ($rows->count() < 10) {
-            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient stickiness data (need 10+ stations with price history)');
-        }
-
-        $avgHoldDays = $rows->avg(fn ($r) => $r->span_days / ($r->changes - 1));
-        $avgHoldDays = round((float) $avgHoldDays, 1);
-
-        $score = match (true) {
-            $avgHoldDays < 2 => -0.1,
-            $avgHoldDays > 5 => 0.1,
-            default => 0.0,
-        };
-
-        $detail = match (true) {
-            $avgHoldDays < 2 => "Volatile prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — harder to predict.",
-            $avgHoldDays > 5 => "Sticky prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — more predictable.",
-            default => "Normal hold period (avg: {$avgHoldDays} days).",
-        };
-
-        return [
-            'score' => $score,
-            'confidence' => min(1.0, $rows->count() / 200),
-            'direction' => 'stable',
-            'detail' => $detail,
-            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-            'enabled' => true,
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Placeholder for regional momentum signal (requires lat/lng).
-     * Compares local station prices vs national average trend.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
-     */
-    private function computeRegionalMomentumSignal(FuelType $fuelType, float $lat, float $lng): array
-    {
-        // Regional momentum: compare trend of stations within 50km vs national trend
-        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-            ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
-            ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-            ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(14))
-            ->whereRaw('(6371 * acos(CASE WHEN (cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?)) + sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))) > 1.0 THEN 1.0 ELSE (cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?)) + sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))) END)) <= 50', [$lat, $lng, $lat, $lat, $lng, $lat])
-            ->selectRaw('DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
-            ->groupBy('day')
-            ->orderBy('day')
-            ->get();
-
-        if ($rows->count() < 3) {
-            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient regional data');
-        }
-
-        $regionalRegression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all());
-        $direction = match (true) {
-            $regionalRegression['slope'] >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
-            $regionalRegression['slope'] <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
-            default => 'stable',
-        };
-
-        return [
-            'score' => $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 0.7 : -0.7),
-            'confidence' => min(1.0, $regionalRegression['r_squared']),
-            'direction' => $direction,
-            'detail' => 'Regional trend: '.round($regionalRegression['slope'], 2).'p/day (R²='.round($regionalRegression['r_squared'], 2).')',
-            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-            'enabled' => true,
-        ];
-    }
-
     /** @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool} */
     private function disabledSignal(string $detail): array
     {
@@ -400,46 +142,64 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
     }
 
     /**
-     * Weighted aggregate of enabled signals.
+     * Aggregate enabled signals into a final direction + confidence score.
-     * Returns [direction string, confidence score 0-100].
      *
-     * @param  array<string, array{score: float, confidence: float, enabled: bool}>  $signals
+     * Direction: weighted vote across signals that have a non-stable direction.
+     *   stable signals do NOT dilute the directional vote.
+     *
+     * Confidence: weighted average of enabled signals' own confidence values,
+     *   multiplied by an agreement coefficient (0..1) measuring how the signals
+     *   line up with the chosen direction.
+     *
+     * @param  array<string, array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, enabled: bool}>  $signals
      * @return array{0: string, 1: float}
      */
     private function aggregateSignals(array $signals, bool $hasCoordinates = false): array
     {
         $weights = $hasCoordinates
             ? [
-                'regionalMomentum' => 0.50,
+                'regionalMomentum' => 0.35,
-                'trend' => 0.20,
+                'oil' => 0.20,
+                'trend' => 0.15,
                 'dayOfWeek' => 0.15,
                 'brandBehaviour' => 0.10,
                 'stickiness' => 0.05,
             ]
             : [
-                'trend' => 0.45,
+                'trend' => 0.30,
+                'oil' => 0.25,
                 'dayOfWeek' => 0.20,
-                'brandBehaviour' => 0.25,
+                'brandBehaviour' => 0.15,
                 'stickiness' => 0.10,
             ];
 
-        $weightedSum = 0.0;
+        $directionalScoreSum = 0.0;
-        $totalWeight = 0.0;
+        $directionalWeightSum = 0.0;
+        $confidenceWeightedSum = 0.0;
+        $totalEnabledWeight = 0.0;
 
         foreach ($weights as $key => $weight) {
             $signal = $signals[$key] ?? null;
-            if ($signal && $signal['enabled']) {
+            if (! $signal || ! $signal['enabled']) {
-                $weightedSum += $signal['score'] * $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
+                continue;
-                $totalWeight += $weight;
+            }
+
+            $totalEnabledWeight += $weight;
+            $confidenceWeightedSum += $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
+
+            if ($signal['direction'] !== 'stable') {
+                $directionalScoreSum += $signal['score'] * $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
+                $directionalWeightSum += $weight;
             }
         }
 
-        if ($totalWeight < 0.01) {
+        if ($totalEnabledWeight < 0.01) {
             return ['stable', 0.0];
         }
 
-        $normalised = $weightedSum / $totalWeight;
+        $normalised = $directionalWeightSum > 0.01
-        $confidenceScore = round(min(100.0, abs($normalised) * 100), 1);
+            ? $directionalScoreSum / $directionalWeightSum
+            : 0.0;
 
         $direction = match (true) {
             $normalised >= 0.1 => 'up',
@@ -447,51 +207,185 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
             default => 'stable',
         };
 
+        $avgConfidence = $confidenceWeightedSum / $totalEnabledWeight;
+        $agreement = $this->computeAgreement($signals, $weights, $direction);
+
+        $confidenceScore = round(min(100.0, $avgConfidence * $agreement * 100), 1);
+
         return [$direction, $confidenceScore];
     }
 
     /**
-     * Least-squares linear regression.
+     * How well the enabled signals line up with the chosen direction.
-     * x is the array index (day number), y is the price value.
+     *   - aligned signal: full credit (signal_confidence × weight)
+     *   - one side stable, other directional: half credit
+     *   - opposing signals: no credit
      *
-     * @param  float[]  $values
+     * Range: 0 (full disagreement) → 1 (unanimous).
-     * @return array{slope: float, r_squared: float}
+     *
+     * @param  array<string, array{confidence: float, direction: string, enabled: bool}>  $signals
+     * @param  array<string, float>  $weights
      */
-    private function linearRegression(array $values): array
+    private function computeAgreement(array $signals, array $weights, string $finalDirection): float
     {
-        $n = count($values);
+        $finalDir = match ($finalDirection) {
-        if ($n < 2) {
+            'up' => 1,
-            return ['slope' => 0.0, 'r_squared' => 0.0];
+            'down' => -1,
+            default => 0,
+        };
+
+        $credit = 0.0;
+        $maxCredit = 0.0;
+
+        foreach ($weights as $key => $weight) {
+            $signal = $signals[$key] ?? null;
+            if (! $signal || ! $signal['enabled']) {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            $maxCredit += $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
+
+            $signalDir = match ($signal['direction']) {
+                'up' => 1,
+                'down' => -1,
+                default => 0,
+            };
+
+            if ($signalDir === $finalDir) {
+                $credit += $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
+            } elseif ($signalDir === 0 || $finalDir === 0) {
+                $credit += 0.5 * $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
+            }
         }
 
-        $xMean = ($n - 1) / 2.0;
+        return $maxCredit > 0.0 ? $credit / $maxCredit : 0.0;
-        $yMean = array_sum($values) / $n;
-
-        $numerator = 0.0;
-        $denominator = 0.0;
-
-        foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
-            $x = $i - $xMean;
-            $numerator += $x * ($y - $yMean);
-            $denominator += $x * $x;
-        }
-
-        $slope = $denominator > 0.0 ? $numerator / $denominator : 0.0;
-
-        $ssRes = 0.0;
-        $ssTot = 0.0;
-        foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
-            $predicted = $yMean + $slope * ($i - $xMean);
-            $ssRes += ($y - $predicted) ** 2;
-            $ssTot += ($y - $yMean) ** 2;
-        }
-
-        $rSquared = $ssTot > 0.0 ? max(0.0, 1.0 - ($ssRes / $ssTot)) : 0.0;
-
-        return ['slope' => $slope, 'r_squared' => $rSquared];
     }
 
-    private function buildReasoning(string $direction, float $slope, array $trend, array $brandBehaviour): string
+    /**
+     * Yesterday / today / tomorrow snapshot + last-7-days series.
+     * Regional (50km) when coordinates are given, with national fallback when
+     * regional data is empty.
+     *
+     * @return array{
+     *   yesterday_avg: ?float,
+     *   today_avg: float,
+     *   tomorrow_estimated_avg: ?float,
+     *   yesterday_today_delta_pence: ?float,
+     *   last_7_days_series: array<int, array{date: string, avg: float}>,
+     *   last_7_days_change_pence: ?float,
+     *   cheapest_day: ?array{date: string, avg: float},
+     *   priciest_day: ?array{date: string, avg: float},
+     *   is_regional: bool
+     * }
+     */
+    private function computeWeeklySummary(FuelType $fuelType, ?float $lat, ?float $lng, float $todayAvg, float $slope): array
+    {
+        $yesterdayAvg = $this->getDailyAverage($fuelType, now()->subDay(), $lat, $lng);
+        [$series, $usedRegional] = $this->getDailySeries($fuelType, 7, $lat, $lng);
+
+        $tomorrowEstimated = $todayAvg > 0.0 ? round($todayAvg + $slope, 1) : null;
+        $yesterdayTodayDelta = $yesterdayAvg !== null ? round($todayAvg - $yesterdayAvg, 1) : null;
+
+        $cheapestDay = null;
+        $priciestDay = null;
+        $weekChange = null;
+
+        if (count($series) >= 2) {
+            $byPrice = $series;
+            usort($byPrice, fn ($a, $b) => $a['avg'] <=> $b['avg']);
+            $cheapestDay = $byPrice[0];
+            $priciestDay = $byPrice[count($byPrice) - 1];
+            $weekChange = round(end($series)['avg'] - $series[0]['avg'], 1);
+        }
+
+        return [
+            'yesterday_avg' => $yesterdayAvg,
+            'today_avg' => $todayAvg,
+            'tomorrow_estimated_avg' => $tomorrowEstimated,
+            'yesterday_today_delta_pence' => $yesterdayTodayDelta,
+            'last_7_days_series' => $series,
+            'last_7_days_change_pence' => $weekChange,
+            'cheapest_day' => $cheapestDay,
+            'priciest_day' => $priciestDay,
+            'is_regional' => $usedRegional,
+        ];
+    }
+
+    private function getDailyAverage(FuelType $fuelType, CarbonInterface $date, ?float $lat, ?float $lng): ?float
+    {
+        $dateString = $date->toDateString();
+
+        if ($lat !== null && $lng !== null) {
+            [$radiusSql, $radiusBindings] = HaversineQuery::withinKm($lat, $lng, 50);
+
+            $regional = DB::table('station_prices')
+                ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
+                ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
+                ->whereDate('station_prices.price_effective_at', $dateString)
+                ->whereRaw($radiusSql, $radiusBindings)
+                ->avg('station_prices.price_pence');
+
+            if ($regional !== null) {
+                return round((float) $regional / 100, 1);
+            }
+        }
+
+        $national = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
+            ->whereDate('price_effective_at', $dateString)
+            ->avg('price_pence');
+
+        return $national !== null ? round((float) $national / 100, 1) : null;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @return array{0: array<int, array{date: string, avg: float}>, 1: bool}
+     */
+    private function getDailySeries(FuelType $fuelType, int $days, ?float $lat, ?float $lng): array
+    {
+        $rows = collect();
+        $usedRegional = false;
+
+        if ($lat !== null && $lng !== null) {
+            [$radiusSql, $radiusBindings] = HaversineQuery::withinKm($lat, $lng, 50);
+
+            $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+                ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
+                ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
+                ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays($days)->startOfDay())
+                ->whereRaw($radiusSql, $radiusBindings)
+                ->selectRaw('DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
+                ->groupBy('day')
+                ->orderBy('day')
+                ->get();
+
+            $usedRegional = $rows->isNotEmpty();
+        }
+
+        if ($rows->isEmpty()) {
+            $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+                ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
+                ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays($days)->startOfDay())
+                ->selectRaw('DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price')
+                ->groupBy('day')
+                ->orderBy('day')
+                ->get();
+        }
+
+        $series = $rows->map(fn ($r): array => [
+            'date' => (string) $r->day,
+            'avg' => round((float) $r->avg_price / 100, 1),
+        ])->values()->all();
+
+        return [$series, $usedRegional];
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @param  array{enabled: bool, detail: string, direction: string}  $trend
+     * @param  array{enabled: bool, detail: string, direction: string}  $brandBehaviour
+     * @param  array{enabled: bool, detail: string, direction: string}  $dayOfWeek
+     */
+    private function buildReasoning(string $direction, float $slope, array $trend, array $brandBehaviour, array $dayOfWeek): string
     {
         $parts = [];
 
@@ -503,8 +397,16 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
             $parts[] = $brandBehaviour['detail'];
         }
 
+        if ($dayOfWeek['enabled']) {
+            $parts[] = $dayOfWeek['detail'];
+        }
+
         if (empty($parts)) {
-            return 'No clear pattern — fill up at the cheapest station near you now.';
+            return match ($direction) {
+                'up' => 'Mild upward signals — top up soon if you\'re nearby.',
+                'down' => 'Mild downward signals — wait a day or two if your tank can hold.',
+                default => 'No clear pattern — fill up at the cheapest station near you now.',
+            };
         }
 
         return implode(' ', $parts);

app/Services/OilPriceService.php

@@ -1,190 +0,0 @@
-<?php
-
-namespace App\Services;
-
-use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
-use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
-use App\Models\BrentPrice;
-use App\Models\PricePrediction;
-use App\Services\LlmPrediction\OilPredictionProvider;
-use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
-use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
-use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
-use Throwable;
-
-class OilPriceService
-{
-    /**
-     * Decay factor for EWMA. Higher = more weight on recent prices.
-     */
-    private const float EWMA_ALPHA = 0.3;
-
-    /**
-     * Minimum % change in EWMA to be considered rising/falling.
-     */
-    private const float EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT = 1.5;
-
-    /**
-     * EWMA confidence is capped lower than LLM — it's a simpler model.
-     */
-    private const int EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 65;
-
-    /**
-     * Minimum price rows needed before EWMA is meaningful.
-     */
-    private const int EWMA_MIN_ROWS = 14;
-
-    public function __construct(
-        private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
-        private readonly OilPredictionProvider $provider,
-    ) {}
-
-    /**
-     * Fetch the last 30 days of Brent crude prices from FRED and store them.
-     */
-    public function fetchBrentPrices(): void
-    {
-        $url = 'https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations';
-
-        try {
-            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('fred', 'GET', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(10)
-                ->get($url, [
-                    'series_id' => 'DCOILBRENTEU',
-                    'api_key' => config('services.fred.api_key'),
-                    'sort_order' => 'desc',
-                    'limit' => 30,
-                    'file_type' => 'json',
-                ]));
-
-            if (! $response->successful()) {
-                Log::error('OilPriceService: FRED request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
-
-                return;
-            }
-
-            $rows = collect($response->json('observations') ?? [])
-                ->filter(fn (array $obs) => $obs['value'] !== '.') // FRED uses '.' for missing data
-                ->map(fn (array $obs) => [
-                    'date' => $obs['date'],
-                    'price_usd' => (float) $obs['value'],
-                ])
-                ->all();
-
-            if (empty($rows)) {
-                Log::warning('OilPriceService: no valid FRED observations returned');
-
-                return;
-            }
-
-            BrentPrice::upsert($rows, ['date'], ['price_usd']);
-        } catch (Throwable $e) {
-            Log::error('OilPriceService: fetchBrentPrices failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
-        }
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Generate predictions from all available sources and store each one.
-     * EWMA always runs. LLM provider runs and returns null if not configured.
-     * Returns the highest-confidence prediction (LLM preferred over EWMA).
-     */
-    public function generatePrediction(): ?PricePrediction
-    {
-        $prices = BrentPrice::orderBy('date', 'desc')->limit(30)->get();
-
-        if ($prices->count() < self::EWMA_MIN_ROWS) {
-            Log::warning('OilPriceService: not enough price data to generate prediction', [
-                'rows' => $prices->count(),
-            ]);
-
-            return null;
-        }
-
-        $ewma = $this->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
-
-        if ($ewma !== null) {
-            PricePrediction::create($ewma->toArray());
-        }
-
-        $llm = $this->provider->predict($prices);
-
-        if ($llm !== null) {
-            PricePrediction::create($llm->toArray());
-        }
-
-        return $llm ?? $ewma;
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Option A — EWMA-based trend extrapolation. Used as fallback when LLM is unavailable.
-     * Compares the 3-day EWMA against the 7-day EWMA to detect direction.
-     */
-    public function generateEwmaPrediction(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
-    {
-        $chronological = $prices->sortBy('date')->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all();
-
-        if (count($chronological) < self::EWMA_MIN_ROWS) {
-            return null;
-        }
-
-        $ewma3 = $this->computeEwma(array_slice($chronological, -3));
-        $ewma7 = $this->computeEwma(array_slice($chronological, -7));
-
-        $changePct = (($ewma3 - $ewma7) / $ewma7) * 100;
-
-        [$direction, $confidence] = match (true) {
-            $changePct >= self::EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT => [
-                TrendDirection::Rising,
-                $this->ewmaConfidence($changePct),
-            ],
-            $changePct <= -self::EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT => [
-                TrendDirection::Falling,
-                $this->ewmaConfidence(abs($changePct)),
-            ],
-            default => [TrendDirection::Flat, 50],
-        };
-
-        $reasoning = sprintf(
-            '3-day EWMA ($%.2f) vs 7-day EWMA ($%.2f): %.2f%% %s.',
-            $ewma3,
-            $ewma7,
-            abs($changePct),
-            $direction === TrendDirection::Flat ? 'difference (flat)' : $direction->value,
-        );
-
-        return new PricePrediction([
-            'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
-            'source' => PredictionSource::Ewma,
-            'direction' => $direction,
-            'confidence' => $confidence,
-            'reasoning' => $reasoning,
-            'generated_at' => now(),
-        ]);
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Compute Exponential Weighted Moving Average for a series of prices.
-     *
-     * @param  float[]  $prices  Chronological order (oldest first)
-     */
-    private function computeEwma(array $prices): float
-    {
-        $ema = $prices[0];
-
-        foreach (array_slice($prices, 1) as $price) {
-            $ema = self::EWMA_ALPHA * $price + (1 - self::EWMA_ALPHA) * $ema;
-        }
-
-        return round($ema, 4);
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Map a % change magnitude to a 0–EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE confidence score.
-     * 1.5% → ~30, 3% → ~50, 5%+ → 65.
-     */
-    private function ewmaConfidence(float $changePct): int
-    {
-        $scaled = min($changePct / 5.0, 1.0) * self::EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE;
-
-        return (int) round(max(30, $scaled));
-    }
-}

app/Services/PlanFeatures.php

@@ -0,0 +1,183 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services;
+
+use App\Models\NotificationLog;
+use App\Models\Plan;
+use App\Models\User;
+use App\Models\UserNotificationPreference;
+
+final class PlanFeatures
+{
+    /** @var string[] */
+    private const array CHANNELS = ['email', 'push', 'whatsapp', 'sms'];
+
+    private Plan $plan;
+
+    private function __construct(private readonly User $user)
+    {
+        $this->plan = Plan::resolveForUser($user);
+    }
+
+    public static function for(User $user): self
+    {
+        return new self($user);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Channels allowed for a given trigger type, filtered by:
+     * tier allows → user has enabled → daily limit not hit.
+     *
+     * @return string[]
+     */
+    public function channelsFor(string $triggerType): array
+    {
+        $allowed = [];
+
+        foreach (self::CHANNELS as $channel) {
+            if (! $this->canUseChannel($channel)) {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            if (! $this->userHasEnabledChannel($channel)) {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            if (! $this->canSendNow($channel)) {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            $allowed[] = $channel;
+        }
+
+        return $allowed;
+    }
+
+    /** Whether the plan allows this channel at all. */
+    public function canUseChannel(string $channel): bool
+    {
+        return (bool) $this->plan->{"{$channel}_enabled"};
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Whether a notification can be sent right now on this channel.
+     * Checks both the plan cap and today's live count in notification_log.
+     */
+    public function canSendNow(string $channel): bool
+    {
+        if (! $this->canUseChannel($channel)) {
+            return false;
+        }
+
+        $dailyLimit = $this->dailyLimit($channel);
+
+        // null = unlimited; 0 = blocked even though enabled
+        if ($dailyLimit === null) {
+            return true;
+        }
+
+        if ($dailyLimit === 0) {
+            return false;
+        }
+
+        $sentToday = NotificationLog::where('user_id', $this->user->id)
+            ->where('channel', $channel)
+            ->where('sent', true)
+            ->whereDate('created_at', today())
+            ->count();
+
+        return $sentToday < $dailyLimit;
+    }
+
+    /** Whether the user can track an additional fuel type. */
+    public function canTrackFuelType(string $fuelType): bool
+    {
+        $limit = $this->fuelTypeLimit();
+
+        if ($limit === null) {
+            return true;
+        }
+
+        $alreadyTracking = UserNotificationPreference::where('user_id', $this->user->id)
+            ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType)
+            ->exists();
+
+        if ($alreadyTracking) {
+            return true;
+        }
+
+        return $this->trackedFuelTypeCount() < $limit;
+    }
+
+    /** Maximum fuel types allowed, or null for unlimited. */
+    public function fuelTypeLimit(): ?int
+    {
+        return $this->plan->max_fuel_types;
+    }
+
+    /** Count of distinct fuel types the user has preferences for. */
+    public function trackedFuelTypeCount(): int
+    {
+        return UserNotificationPreference::where('user_id', $this->user->id)
+            ->distinct('fuel_type')
+            ->count('fuel_type');
+    }
+
+    /** Generic boolean feature flag check. */
+    public function can(string $feature): bool
+    {
+        return (bool) ($this->plan->{$feature} ?? false);
+    }
+
+    /** Count of notifications missed today on a channel. */
+    public function missedToday(string $channel): int
+    {
+        return NotificationLog::where('user_id', $this->user->id)
+            ->where('channel', $channel)
+            ->where('sent', false)
+            ->whereDate('created_at', today())
+            ->count();
+    }
+
+    /** Count of notifications missed this month on a channel. */
+    public function missedThisMonth(string $channel): int
+    {
+        return NotificationLog::where('user_id', $this->user->id)
+            ->where('channel', $channel)
+            ->where('sent', false)
+            ->whereMonth('created_at', now()->month)
+            ->whereYear('created_at', now()->year)
+            ->count();
+    }
+
+    /** The resolved plan tier name. */
+    public function tier(): string
+    {
+        return $this->plan->name;
+    }
+
+    /** User-facing display label for the resolved tier (e.g. basic → "Daily"). */
+    public function displayName(): string
+    {
+        return $this->plan->displayName();
+    }
+
+    /** Whether the user has opted in to this channel for at least one fuel type. */
+    private function userHasEnabledChannel(string $channel): bool
+    {
+        return UserNotificationPreference::where('user_id', $this->user->id)
+            ->where('channel', $channel)
+            ->where('enabled', true)
+            ->exists();
+    }
+
+    /** Per-channel daily limit. Null on email/push (no cap), int on whatsapp/sms. */
+    private function dailyLimit(string $channel): ?int
+    {
+        return match ($channel) {
+            'whatsapp' => $this->plan->whatsapp_daily_limit,
+            'sms' => $this->plan->sms_daily_limit,
+            default => null,
+        };
+    }
+}

app/Services/PostcodeService.php

@@ -2,6 +2,8 @@
 
 namespace App\Services;
 
+use App\Models\Outcode;
+use App\Models\Postcode;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Cache;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
@@ -24,7 +26,16 @@ class PostcodeService
     public function resolve(string $query): ?LocationResult
     {
         $query = trim($query);
-        $cacheKey = 'postcode:'.strtolower(preg_replace('/\s+/', '', $query));
+
+        if ($this->isFullPostcode($query)) {
+            return $this->lookupLocalPostcode($query) ?? $this->lookupPostcode($query);
+        }
+
+        if ($this->isOutcode($query)) {
+            return $this->lookupLocalOutcode($query) ?? $this->lookupOutcode($query);
+        }
+
+        $cacheKey = 'place:'.strtolower(preg_replace('/\s+/', '', $query));
 
         $cached = Cache::get($cacheKey);
 
@@ -32,11 +43,7 @@ class PostcodeService
             return $cached;
         }
 
-        $result = match (true) {
+        $result = $this->lookupPlace($query);
-            $this->isFullPostcode($query) => $this->lookupPostcode($query),
-            $this->isOutcode($query) => $this->lookupOutcode($query),
-            default => $this->lookupPlace($query),
-        };
 
         if ($result !== null) {
             Cache::put($cacheKey, $result, self::CACHE_TTL);
@@ -45,6 +52,11 @@ class PostcodeService
         return $result;
     }
 
+    private function normalisePostcode(string $value): string
+    {
+        return strtoupper(preg_replace('/\s+/', '', $value));
+    }
+
     private function isFullPostcode(string $query): bool
     {
         return (bool) preg_match('/^[A-Z]{1,2}[0-9][0-9A-Z]?\s*[0-9][A-Z]{2}$/i', $query);
@@ -55,9 +67,55 @@ class PostcodeService
         return (bool) preg_match('/^[A-Z]{1,2}[0-9][0-9A-Z]?$/i', $query);
     }
 
+    private function lookupLocalPostcode(string $postcode): ?LocationResult
+    {
+        $normalised = $this->normalisePostcode($postcode);
+
+        $row = Postcode::find($normalised);
+
+        if ($row === null) {
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        return new LocationResult(
+            query: $postcode,
+            displayName: $this->formatPostcode($normalised),
+            lat: $row->lat,
+            lng: $row->lng,
+        );
+    }
+
+    private function lookupLocalOutcode(string $outcode): ?LocationResult
+    {
+        $normalised = strtoupper(trim($outcode));
+
+        $row = Outcode::find($normalised);
+
+        if ($row === null) {
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        return new LocationResult(
+            query: $outcode,
+            displayName: $normalised,
+            lat: $row->lat,
+            lng: $row->lng,
+        );
+    }
+
+    private function formatPostcode(string $normalised): string
+    {
+        // Insert the single space before the last 3 chars ("SW1A1AA" -> "SW1A 1AA").
+        if (strlen($normalised) < 5) {
+            return $normalised;
+        }
+
+        return substr($normalised, 0, -3).' '.substr($normalised, -3);
+    }
+
     private function lookupPostcode(string $postcode): ?LocationResult
     {
-        $normalised = strtoupper(preg_replace('/\s+/', '', $postcode));
+        $normalised = $this->normalisePostcode($postcode);
         $url = self::BASE_URL.'/postcodes/'.$normalised;
 
         try {
@@ -69,12 +127,34 @@ class PostcodeService
 
             $data = $response->json('result');
 
-            return new LocationResult(
+            if (! is_array($data) || ! isset($data['postcode'], $data['latitude'], $data['longitude'])) {
+                return null;
+            }
+
+            $result = new LocationResult(
                 query: $postcode,
                 displayName: $data['postcode'],
                 lat: $data['latitude'],
                 lng: $data['longitude'],
             );
+
+            try {
+                Postcode::updateOrCreate(
+                    ['postcode' => $normalised],
+                    [
+                        'outcode' => substr($normalised, 0, strlen($normalised) - 3),
+                        'lat' => $data['latitude'],
+                        'lng' => $data['longitude'],
+                    ],
+                );
+            } catch (Throwable $e) {
+                Log::warning('PostcodeService: failed to persist postcode after HTTP fallback', [
+                    'postcode' => $normalised,
+                    'error' => $e->getMessage(),
+                ]);
+            }
+
+            return $result;
         } catch (Throwable $e) {
             Log::error('PostcodeService: postcode lookup failed', [
                 'postcode' => $postcode,
@@ -99,12 +179,33 @@ class PostcodeService
 
             $data = $response->json('result');
 
-            return new LocationResult(
+            if (! is_array($data) || ! isset($data['outcode'], $data['latitude'], $data['longitude'])) {
+                return null;
+            }
+
+            $result = new LocationResult(
                 query: $outcode,
                 displayName: $data['outcode'],
                 lat: $data['latitude'],
                 lng: $data['longitude'],
             );
+
+            try {
+                Outcode::updateOrCreate(
+                    ['outcode' => $normalised],
+                    [
+                        'lat' => $data['latitude'],
+                        'lng' => $data['longitude'],
+                    ],
+                );
+            } catch (Throwable $e) {
+                Log::warning('PostcodeService: failed to persist outcode after HTTP fallback', [
+                    'outcode' => $normalised,
+                    'error' => $e->getMessage(),
+                ]);
+            }
+
+            return $result;
         } catch (Throwable $e) {
             Log::error('PostcodeService: outcode lookup failed', [
                 'outcode' => $outcode,

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/AbstractSignal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+abstract class AbstractSignal implements Signal
+{
+    /** @return array{score: 0.0, confidence: 0.0, direction: 'stable', detail: string, data_points: 0, enabled: false} */
+    protected function disabledSignal(string $detail): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'score' => 0.0,
+            'confidence' => 0.0,
+            'direction' => 'stable',
+            'detail' => $detail,
+            'data_points' => 0,
+            'enabled' => false,
+        ];
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Least-squares linear regression. x = array index, y = value.
+     *
+     * @param  float[]  $values
+     * @return array{slope: float, r_squared: float}
+     */
+    protected function linearRegression(array $values): array
+    {
+        $n = count($values);
+
+        if ($n < 2) {
+            return ['slope' => 0.0, 'r_squared' => 0.0];
+        }
+
+        $xMean = ($n - 1) / 2.0;
+        $yMean = array_sum($values) / $n;
+
+        $numerator = 0.0;
+        $denominator = 0.0;
+
+        foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
+            $x = $i - $xMean;
+            $numerator += $x * ($y - $yMean);
+            $denominator += $x * $x;
+        }
+
+        $slope = $denominator > 0.0 ? $numerator / $denominator : 0.0;
+
+        $ssRes = 0.0;
+        $ssTot = 0.0;
+
+        foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
+            $predicted = $yMean + $slope * ($i - $xMean);
+            $ssRes += ($y - $predicted) ** 2;
+            $ssTot += ($y - $yMean) ** 2;
+        }
+
+        $rSquared = $ssTot > 0.0 ? max(0.0, 1.0 - ($ssRes / $ssTot)) : 0.0;
+
+        return ['slope' => $slope, 'r_squared' => $rSquared];
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/BrandBehaviourSignal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class BrandBehaviourSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
+            ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+            ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(7))
+            ->selectRaw('stations.is_supermarket, DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
+            ->groupBy('stations.is_supermarket', 'day')
+            ->orderBy('day')
+            ->get();
+
+        $supermarket = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 1)->values();
+        $major = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 0)->values();
+
+        if ($supermarket->count() < 2 || $major->count() < 2) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient brand data for comparison');
+        }
+
+        $supermarketSlope = $this->linearRegression($supermarket->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
+        $majorSlope = $this->linearRegression($major->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
+
+        $divergence = round(abs($supermarketSlope - $majorSlope) * 7, 1);
+        $supermarketChange = round($supermarketSlope * 7, 1);
+        $majorChange = round($majorSlope * 7, 1);
+
+        if ($divergence < 1.0) {
+            return [
+                'score' => 0.0,
+                'confidence' => 0.5,
+                'direction' => 'stable',
+                'detail' => 'Supermarkets and majors moving in sync.',
+                'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+                'enabled' => true,
+            ];
+        }
+
+        $leaderChange = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? $supermarketChange : $majorChange;
+        $direction = $leaderChange > 0 ? 'up' : 'down';
+        $leader = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? 'Supermarkets' : 'Majors';
+        $follower = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? 'majors' : 'supermarkets';
+        $leaderAbs = abs($leaderChange);
+        $followerChange = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? abs($majorChange) : abs($supermarketChange);
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0,
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $divergence / 5.0),
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => "{$leader} ".($leaderChange > 0 ? 'rose' : 'fell')." {$leaderAbs}p vs {$follower} {$followerChange}p (divergence: {$divergence}p). Expect {$follower} to follow.",
+            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/DayOfWeekSignal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class DayOfWeekSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    private const int MIN_DAYS = 21;
+
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        $dowExpr = DbDialect::dayOfWeekExpr('price_effective_at');
+
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->where('fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+            ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(90))
+            ->selectRaw("{$dowExpr} as dow, DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price")
+            ->groupBy('dow', 'day')
+            ->get();
+
+        $uniqueDays = $rows->pluck('day')->unique()->count();
+
+        if ($uniqueDays < self::MIN_DAYS) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal("Insufficient history for day-of-week pattern ({$uniqueDays} days, need ".self::MIN_DAYS.')');
+        }
+
+        $dowAverages = $rows->groupBy('dow')->map(fn ($g) => $g->avg('avg_price'));
+        $weekAvg = $dowAverages->avg();
+        $todayDow = (int) now()->format('w') + 1; // PHP 0=Sun → MySQL 1=Sun
+        $todayAvg = $dowAverages->get($todayDow, $weekAvg);
+        $cheapestDow = $dowAverages->keys()->sortBy(fn ($k) => $dowAverages[$k])->first();
+        $dayNames = ['Sun', 'Mon', 'Tue', 'Wed', 'Thu', 'Fri', 'Sat'];
+        $todayName = $dayNames[($todayDow - 1) % 7] ?? 'Today';
+        $tomorrowName = $dayNames[$todayDow % 7] ?? 'Tomorrow';
+
+        $todayDeltaPence = round(($todayAvg - $weekAvg) / 100, 1);
+        $tomorrowDeltaPence = round(($dowAverages->get(($todayDow % 7) + 1, $weekAvg) - $todayAvg) / 100, 1);
+
+        $direction = match (true) {
+            ($todayAvg - $weekAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'up',
+            ($weekAvg - $todayAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'down',
+            default => 'stable',
+        };
+
+        $score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0);
+
+        $parts = [];
+        $parts[] = abs($todayDeltaPence) < 0.1
+            ? "Today ({$todayName}) is typically in line with the weekly average."
+            : sprintf(
+                'Today (%s) is typically %sp %s the weekly average.',
+                $todayName,
+                number_format(abs($todayDeltaPence), 1),
+                $todayDeltaPence > 0 ? 'above' : 'below',
+            );
+
+        $parts[] = abs($tomorrowDeltaPence) < 0.1
+            ? "Tomorrow ({$tomorrowName}) is typically the same."
+            : sprintf(
+                'Tomorrow (%s) is typically %sp %s.',
+                $tomorrowName,
+                number_format(abs($tomorrowDeltaPence), 1),
+                $tomorrowDeltaPence < 0 ? 'cheaper' : 'pricier',
+            );
+
+        if ($cheapestDow === $todayDow) {
+            $parts[] = 'Today is historically the cheapest day of the week.';
+        }
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $score,
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $uniqueDays / 90),
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => implode(' ', $parts),
+            'data_points' => $uniqueDays,
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/DbDialect.php

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+/**
+ * SQL dialect helpers for the small set of MySQL/SQLite differences the
+ * signal classes care about. Centralises the isSqlite ternaries that were
+ * duplicated across DayOfWeekSignal and StickinessSignal.
+ */
+final class DbDialect
+{
+    private static function isSqlite(): bool
+    {
+        return DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite';
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Day-of-week expression returning 1=Sun..7=Sat (MySQL DAYOFWEEK convention).
+     * Targets a column on the queried table.
+     */
+    public static function dayOfWeekExpr(string $column): string
+    {
+        return self::isSqlite()
+            ? "(CAST(strftime('%w', {$column}) AS INTEGER) + 1)"
+            : "DAYOFWEEK({$column})";
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Whole-day difference between MAX and MIN of a datetime column, suitable
+     * for use in an aggregate selectRaw.
+     */
+    public static function maxMinDayDiffExpr(string $column): string
+    {
+        return self::isSqlite()
+            ? "CAST((julianday(MAX({$column})) - julianday(MIN({$column}))) AS INTEGER)"
+            : "DATEDIFF(MAX({$column}), MIN({$column}))";
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/OilSignal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class OilSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    /**
+     * Reads the most recent Brent crude prediction (LLM preferred, EWMA
+     * fallback) covering today or later. Sourced from price_predictions,
+     * which OilPriceService populates daily.
+     */
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        $prediction = null;
+
+        foreach (['llm_with_context', 'llm', 'ewma'] as $source) {
+            $prediction = DB::table('price_predictions')
+                ->where('source', $source)
+                ->where('predicted_for', '>=', now()->toDateString())
+                ->orderByDesc('predicted_for')
+                ->orderByDesc('generated_at')
+                ->first();
+
+            if ($prediction !== null) {
+                break;
+            }
+        }
+
+        if ($prediction === null) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('No oil price prediction available');
+        }
+
+        $direction = match ($prediction->direction) {
+            'rising' => 'up',
+            'falling' => 'down',
+            default => 'stable',
+        };
+
+        $score = match ($direction) {
+            'up' => 1.0,
+            'down' => -1.0,
+            default => 0.0,
+        };
+
+        $confidence = round(((float) $prediction->confidence) / 100, 2);
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $score,
+            'confidence' => $confidence,
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => sprintf(
+                'Brent crude %s (%s, %d%% confidence)',
+                $prediction->direction,
+                $prediction->source,
+                (int) $prediction->confidence,
+            ),
+            'data_points' => 1,
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/RegionalMomentumSignal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use App\Services\HaversineQuery;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class RegionalMomentumSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    private const float SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE = 0.3;
+
+    private const float REGIONAL_RADIUS_KM = 50.0;
+
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        if (! $context->hasCoordinates()) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('No coordinates provided for regional momentum analysis');
+        }
+
+        [$radiusSql, $radiusBindings] = HaversineQuery::withinKm($context->lat, $context->lng, self::REGIONAL_RADIUS_KM);
+
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
+            ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+            ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(14))
+            ->whereRaw($radiusSql, $radiusBindings)
+            ->selectRaw('DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
+            ->groupBy('day')
+            ->orderBy('day')
+            ->get();
+
+        if ($rows->count() < 3) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient regional data');
+        }
+
+        $regression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all());
+        $direction = match (true) {
+            $regression['slope'] >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
+            $regression['slope'] <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
+            default => 'stable',
+        };
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 0.7 : -0.7),
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $regression['r_squared']),
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => 'Regional trend: '.round($regression['slope'], 2).'p/day (R²='.round($regression['r_squared'], 2).')',
+            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/Signal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+interface Signal
+{
+    /**
+     * Evaluate the signal against the given context.
+     *
+     * Returns the canonical signal payload. Implementations may add extra
+     * keys beyond the base shape (e.g. trend adds slope + r_squared).
+     *
+     * @return array{
+     *     score: float,
+     *     confidence: float,
+     *     direction: string,
+     *     detail: string,
+     *     data_points: int,
+     *     enabled: bool,
+     *     ...
+     * }
+     */
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array;
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/SignalContext.php

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+
+/**
+ * Inputs required to evaluate a prediction signal. Individual signals may
+ * ignore fields they don't need — for example OilSignal doesn't use fuelType,
+ * RegionalMomentumSignal requires lat/lng to be non-null.
+ */
+final readonly class SignalContext
+{
+    public function __construct(
+        public FuelType $fuelType,
+        public ?float $lat = null,
+        public ?float $lng = null,
+    ) {}
+
+    public function hasCoordinates(): bool
+    {
+        return $this->lat !== null && $this->lng !== null;
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/StickinessSignal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class StickinessSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        $diffExpr = DbDialect::maxMinDayDiffExpr('price_effective_at');
+
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->where('fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+            ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(30))
+            ->selectRaw("station_id, COUNT(*) as changes, {$diffExpr} as span_days")
+            ->groupBy('station_id')
+            ->having('changes', '>', 1)
+            ->having('span_days', '>', 0)
+            ->get();
+
+        if ($rows->count() < 10) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient stickiness data (need 10+ stations with price history)');
+        }
+
+        $avgHoldDays = $rows->avg(fn ($r) => $r->span_days / ($r->changes - 1));
+        $avgHoldDays = round((float) $avgHoldDays, 1);
+
+        $score = match (true) {
+            $avgHoldDays < 2 => -0.1,
+            $avgHoldDays > 5 => 0.1,
+            default => 0.0,
+        };
+
+        $detail = match (true) {
+            $avgHoldDays < 2 => "Volatile prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — harder to predict.",
+            $avgHoldDays > 5 => "Sticky prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — more predictable.",
+            default => "Normal hold period (avg: {$avgHoldDays} days).",
+        };
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $score,
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $rows->count() / 200),
+            'direction' => 'stable',
+            'detail' => $detail,
+            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/TrendSignal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class TrendSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    private const float R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD = 0.5;
+
+    private const float SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE = 0.3;
+
+    private const float SLOPE_SATURATION_PENCE = 0.5;
+
+    private const int PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS = 7;
+
+    /** @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool, slope: float, r_squared: float} */
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        foreach ([5, 14] as $lookbackDays) {
+            $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+                ->where('fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+                ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays($lookbackDays))
+                ->selectRaw('DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price')
+                ->groupBy('day')
+                ->orderBy('day')
+                ->get();
+
+            if ($rows->count() < 2) {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            $regression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all());
+
+            if ($regression['r_squared'] >= self::R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD) {
+                $slope = $regression['slope'];
+                $direction = match (true) {
+                    $slope >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
+                    $slope <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
+                    default => 'stable',
+                };
+                $absSlope = abs($slope);
+                $score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : min(1.0, $absSlope / self::SLOPE_SATURATION_PENCE) * ($slope > 0 ? 1 : -1);
+                $projected = round($slope * $lookbackDays, 1);
+                $detail = $direction === 'stable'
+                    ? "Prices flat over {$lookbackDays} days (slope: {$slope}p/day, R²={$regression['r_squared']})"
+                    : sprintf(
+                        '%s at %sp/day over %d days (R²=%s, ~%s%sp in %dd)',
+                        $slope > 0 ? 'Rising' : 'Falling',
+                        abs(round($slope, 2)),
+                        $lookbackDays,
+                        round($regression['r_squared'], 2),
+                        $projected > 0 ? '+' : '',
+                        $projected,
+                        self::PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS,
+                    );
+
+                if ($lookbackDays === 5) {
+                    $detail .= ' [Adaptive lookback active]';
+                }
+
+                return [
+                    'score' => $score,
+                    'confidence' => min(1.0, $regression['r_squared']),
+                    'direction' => $direction,
+                    'detail' => $detail,
+                    'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+                    'enabled' => true,
+                    'slope' => round($slope, 3),
+                    'r_squared' => round($regression['r_squared'], 3),
+                ];
+            }
+        }
+
+        return [
+            'score' => 0.0,
+            'confidence' => 0.0,
+            'direction' => 'stable',
+            'detail' => 'Insufficient price history or noisy data (R² below threshold)',
+            'data_points' => 0,
+            'enabled' => false,
+            'slope' => 0.0,
+            'r_squared' => 0.0,
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Services/StationSearch/SearchCriteria.php

@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\StationSearch;
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+
+final readonly class SearchCriteria
+{
+    public function __construct(
+        public float $lat,
+        public float $lng,
+        public FuelType $fuelType,
+        public float $radiusKm,
+        public string $sort,
+    ) {}
+}

app/Services/StationSearch/SearchResult.php

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\StationSearch;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
+
+final readonly class SearchResult
+{
+    /**
+     * @param  Collection<int, mixed>  $stations  Sorted station rows with _updated_at/_reliability/_classification cached
+     * @param  array{lowest: ?int, highest: ?int, avg: ?float}  $pricesSummary
+     * @param  array{reliable: int, stale: int, outdated: int}  $reliabilityCounts
+     * @param  array<string, mixed>  $prediction
+     */
+    public function __construct(
+        public Collection $stations,
+        public array $pricesSummary,
+        public array $reliabilityCounts,
+        public array $prediction,
+    ) {}
+}

app/Services/StationSearch/StationSearchService.php

@@ -0,0 +1,151 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\StationSearch;
+
+use App\Enums\PriceClassification;
+use App\Enums\PriceReliability;
+use App\Models\Search;
+use App\Models\Station;
+use App\Models\User;
+use App\Services\HaversineQuery;
+use App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService;
+use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
+use Illuminate\Database\Query\JoinClause;
+use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
+use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
+
+final class StationSearchService
+{
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly NationalFuelPredictionService $predictionService,
+    ) {}
+
+    public function search(SearchCriteria $criteria, ?User $user, ?string $ipHash): SearchResult
+    {
+        $stations = $this->fetchAndSortStations($criteria);
+        $prices = $stations->pluck('price_pence');
+
+        $this->logSearch($criteria, $stations->count(), $prices, $ipHash);
+
+        return new SearchResult(
+            stations: $stations,
+            pricesSummary: [
+                'lowest' => $prices->min(),
+                'highest' => $prices->max(),
+                'avg' => $prices->isNotEmpty() ? round($prices->avg(), 2) : null,
+            ],
+            reliabilityCounts: $this->countReliability($stations),
+            prediction: $this->buildPrediction($user, $criteria),
+        );
+    }
+
+    /** @return Collection<int, mixed> */
+    private function fetchAndSortStations(SearchCriteria $criteria): Collection
+    {
+        [$distanceSql, $distanceBindings] = HaversineQuery::distanceKm($criteria->lat, $criteria->lng);
+
+        $all = Station::query()
+            ->selectRaw(
+                "stations.*, spc.price_pence, spc.fuel_type, spc.price_effective_at, {$distanceSql} AS distance_km",
+                $distanceBindings,
+            )
+            ->join('station_prices_current as spc', function (JoinClause $join) use ($criteria): void {
+                $join->on('stations.node_id', '=', 'spc.station_id')
+                    ->where('spc.fuel_type', '=', $criteria->fuelType->value);
+            })
+            ->where('stations.temporary_closure', false)
+            ->where('stations.permanent_closure', false)
+            ->get();
+
+        // Compute reliability + classification once per row so the sort, the
+        // count groupBy, and the StationResource render all read cached
+        // values instead of re-invoking PriceReliability::fromUpdatedAt.
+        $all->each(function ($s): void {
+            $updatedAt = $s->price_effective_at ? Carbon::parse($s->price_effective_at) : null;
+            $s->_updated_at = $updatedAt;
+            $s->_reliability = PriceReliability::fromUpdatedAt($updatedAt);
+            $s->_classification = PriceClassification::fromUpdatedAt($updatedAt);
+        });
+
+        $filtered = $all->filter(fn ($s) => (float) $s->distance_km <= $criteria->radiusKm);
+
+        return $this->applySort($filtered, $criteria->sort);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @param  Collection<int, mixed>  $filtered
+     * @return Collection<int, mixed>
+     */
+    private function applySort(Collection $filtered, string $sort): Collection
+    {
+        if ($sort === 'reliable') {
+            return $filtered
+                ->sort(function ($a, $b) {
+                    return $a->_reliability->weight() <=> $b->_reliability->weight()
+                        ?: ((int) $a->price_pence <=> (int) $b->price_pence)
+                        ?: ((float) $a->distance_km <=> (float) $b->distance_km);
+                })
+                ->values();
+        }
+
+        return $filtered->sortBy(match ($sort) {
+            'price' => fn ($s) => (int) $s->price_pence,
+            'updated' => fn ($s) => $s->price_effective_at ? -strtotime($s->price_effective_at) : PHP_INT_MAX,
+            default => fn ($s) => (float) $s->distance_km,
+        })->values();
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @param  Collection<int, mixed>  $stations
+     * @return array{reliable: int, stale: int, outdated: int}
+     */
+    private function countReliability(Collection $stations): array
+    {
+        $counts = $stations->groupBy(fn ($s) => $s->_reliability->value)->map->count();
+
+        return [
+            'reliable' => (int) $counts->get(PriceReliability::Reliable->value, 0),
+            'stale' => (int) $counts->get(PriceReliability::Stale->value, 0),
+            'outdated' => (int) $counts->get(PriceReliability::Outdated->value, 0),
+        ];
+    }
+
+    /** @param  Collection<int, mixed>  $prices */
+    private function logSearch(SearchCriteria $criteria, int $resultsCount, Collection $prices, ?string $ipHash): void
+    {
+        Search::create([
+            'lat_bucket' => round($criteria->lat, 2),
+            'lng_bucket' => round($criteria->lng, 2),
+            'fuel_type' => $criteria->fuelType->value,
+            'results_count' => $resultsCount,
+            'lowest_pence' => $prices->min(),
+            'highest_pence' => $prices->max(),
+            'avg_pence' => $prices->isNotEmpty() ? round($prices->avg(), 2) : null,
+            'searched_at' => now(),
+            'ip_hash' => $ipHash ?? hash('sha256', ''),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Free/guest users get a stripped teaser; users with the ai_predictions
+     * feature get the full multi-signal payload.
+     *
+     * @return array<string, mixed>
+     */
+    private function buildPrediction(?User $user, SearchCriteria $criteria): array
+    {
+        $result = $this->predictionService->predict($criteria->lat, $criteria->lng);
+
+        $canSeeFull = $user !== null && PlanFeatures::for($user)->can('ai_predictions');
+
+        if (! $canSeeFull) {
+            return [
+                'fuel_type' => $result['fuel_type'],
+                'predicted_direction' => $result['predicted_direction'],
+                'tier_locked' => true,
+            ];
+        }
+
+        return $result;
+    }
+}

bootstrap/app.php

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 <?php
 
+use App\Http\Middleware\RequiresFeature;
 use Illuminate\Foundation\Application;
 use Illuminate\Foundation\Configuration\Exceptions;
 use Illuminate\Foundation\Configuration\Middleware;
@@ -14,6 +15,9 @@ return Application::configure(basePath: dirname(__DIR__))
     )
     ->withMiddleware(function (Middleware $middleware): void {
         $middleware->statefulApi();
+        $middleware->alias([
+            'feature' => RequiresFeature::class,
+        ]);
     })
     ->withExceptions(function (Exceptions $exceptions): void {
         $exceptions->shouldRenderJsonWhen(fn (Request $request) => $request->is('api/*'));

composer.json

@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@
     "require": {
         "php": "^8.4",
         "filament/filament": "^5.0",
+        "laravel/cashier": "^16.5",
         "laravel/fortify": "^1.34",
         "laravel/framework": "^13.0",
         "laravel/sanctum": "^4.0",

composer.lock

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
         "Read more about it at https://getcomposer.org/doc/01-basic-usage.md#installing-dependencies",
         "This file is @generated automatically"
     ],
-    "content-hash": "789a2e6b542a1e2f263dc8e9c973423b",
+    "content-hash": "9035b4713dec553cc69f487efa60cade",
     "packages": [
         {
             "name": "bacon/bacon-qr-code",
@@ -2124,6 +2124,95 @@
             },
             "time": "2026-03-29T12:05:03+00:00"
         },
+        {
+            "name": "laravel/cashier",
+            "version": "v16.5.1",
+            "source": {
+                "type": "git",
+                "url": "https://github.com/laravel/cashier-stripe.git",
+                "reference": "49a581bccb5e56a45e1c8ee94587ce3420203a7a"
+            },
+            "dist": {
+                "type": "zip",
+                "url": "https://api.github.com/repos/laravel/cashier-stripe/zipball/49a581bccb5e56a45e1c8ee94587ce3420203a7a",
+                "reference": "49a581bccb5e56a45e1c8ee94587ce3420203a7a",
+                "shasum": ""
+            },
+            "require": {
+                "ext-json": "*",
+                "illuminate/console": "^10.0|^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/contracts": "^10.0|^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/database": "^10.0|^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/http": "^10.0|^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/log": "^10.0|^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/notifications": "^10.0|^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/pagination": "^10.0|^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/routing": "^10.0|^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/support": "^10.0|^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "illuminate/view": "^10.0|^11.0|^12.0|^13.0",
+                "moneyphp/money": "^4.0",
+                "nesbot/carbon": "^2.0|^3.0",
+                "php": "^8.1",
+                "stripe/stripe-php": "^17.3.0",
+                "symfony/console": "^6.0|^7.0|^8.0",
+                "symfony/http-kernel": "^6.0|^7.0|^8.0",
+                "symfony/polyfill-intl-icu": "^1.22.1",
+                "symfony/polyfill-php84": "^1.32"
+            },
+            "require-dev": {
+                "dompdf/dompdf": "^2.0|^3.0",
+                "orchestra/testbench": "^8.36|^9.15|^10.8|^11.0",
+                "phpstan/phpstan": "^1.10",
+                "spatie/laravel-ray": "^1.40"
+            },
+            "suggest": {
+                "dompdf/dompdf": "Required when generating and downloading invoice PDF's using Dompdf (^2.0|^3.0).",
+                "ext-intl": "Allows for more locales besides the default \"en\" when formatting money values.",
+                "spatie/laravel-pdf": "Required when generating and downloading invoice PDF's using Cashier's LaravelPdfInvoiceRenderer."
+            },
+            "type": "library",
+            "extra": {
+                "laravel": {
+                    "providers": [
+                        "Laravel\\Cashier\\CashierServiceProvider"
+                    ]
+                },
+                "branch-alias": {
+                    "dev-master": "16.x-dev"
+                }
+            },
+            "autoload": {
+                "psr-4": {
+                    "Laravel\\Cashier\\": "src/",
+                    "Laravel\\Cashier\\Database\\Factories\\": "database/factories/"
+                }
+            },
+            "notification-url": "https://packagist.org/downloads/",
+            "license": [
+                "MIT"
+            ],
+            "authors": [
+                {
+                    "name": "Taylor Otwell",
+                    "email": "taylor@laravel.com"
+                },
+                {
+                    "name": "Dries Vints",
+                    "email": "dries@laravel.com"
+                }
+            ],
+            "description": "Laravel Cashier provides an expressive, fluent interface to Stripe's subscription billing services.",
+            "keywords": [
+                "billing",
+                "laravel",
+                "stripe"
+            ],
+            "support": {
+                "issues": "https://github.com/laravel/cashier/issues",
+                "source": "https://github.com/laravel/cashier"
+            },
+            "time": "2026-04-01T15:57:36+00:00"
+        },
         {
             "name": "laravel/fortify",
             "version": "v1.36.2",
@@ -3537,6 +3626,96 @@
             ],
             "time": "2026-04-02T20:48:35+00:00"
         },
+        {
+            "name": "moneyphp/money",
+            "version": "v4.8.0",
+            "source": {
+                "type": "git",
+                "url": "https://github.com/moneyphp/money.git",
+                "reference": "b358727ea5a5cd2d7475e59c31dfc352440ae7ec"
+            },
+            "dist": {
+                "type": "zip",
+                "url": "https://api.github.com/repos/moneyphp/money/zipball/b358727ea5a5cd2d7475e59c31dfc352440ae7ec",
+                "reference": "b358727ea5a5cd2d7475e59c31dfc352440ae7ec",
+                "shasum": ""
+            },
+            "require": {
+                "ext-bcmath": "*",
+                "ext-filter": "*",
+                "ext-json": "*",
+                "php": "~8.1.0 || ~8.2.0 || ~8.3.0 || ~8.4.0 || ~8.5.0"
+            },
+            "require-dev": {
+                "cache/taggable-cache": "^1.1.0",
+                "doctrine/coding-standard": "^12.0",
+                "doctrine/instantiator": "^1.5.0 || ^2.0",
+                "ext-gmp": "*",
+                "ext-intl": "*",
+                "florianv/exchanger": "^2.8.1",
+                "florianv/swap": "^4.3.0",
+                "moneyphp/crypto-currencies": "^1.1.0",
+                "moneyphp/iso-currencies": "^3.4",
+                "php-http/message": "^1.16.0",
+                "php-http/mock-client": "^1.6.0",
+                "phpbench/phpbench": "^1.2.5",
+                "phpstan/extension-installer": "^1.4",
+                "phpstan/phpstan": "^2.1.9",
+                "phpstan/phpstan-phpunit": "^2.0",
+                "phpunit/phpunit": "^10.5.9",
+                "psr/cache": "^1.0.1 || ^2.0 || ^3.0",
+                "ticketswap/phpstan-error-formatter": "^1.1"
+            },
+            "suggest": {
+                "ext-gmp": "Calculate without integer limits",
+                "ext-intl": "Format Money objects with intl",
+                "florianv/exchanger": "Exchange rates library for PHP",
+                "florianv/swap": "Exchange rates library for PHP",
+                "psr/cache-implementation": "Used for Currency caching"
+            },
+            "type": "library",
+            "extra": {
+                "branch-alias": {
+                    "dev-master": "3.x-dev"
+                }
+            },
+            "autoload": {
+                "psr-4": {
+                    "Money\\": "src/"
+                }
+            },
+            "notification-url": "https://packagist.org/downloads/",
+            "license": [
+                "MIT"
+            ],
+            "authors": [
+                {
+                    "name": "Mathias Verraes",
+                    "email": "mathias@verraes.net",
+                    "homepage": "http://verraes.net"
+                },
+                {
+                    "name": "Márk Sági-Kazár",
+                    "email": "mark.sagikazar@gmail.com"
+                },
+                {
+                    "name": "Frederik Bosch",
+                    "email": "f.bosch@genkgo.nl"
+                }
+            ],
+            "description": "PHP implementation of Fowler's Money pattern",
+            "homepage": "http://moneyphp.org",
+            "keywords": [
+                "Value Object",
+                "money",
+                "vo"
+            ],
+            "support": {
+                "issues": "https://github.com/moneyphp/money/issues",
+                "source": "https://github.com/moneyphp/money/tree/v4.8.0"
+            },
+            "time": "2025-10-23T07:55:09+00:00"
+        },
         {
             "name": "monolog/monolog",
             "version": "3.10.0",
@@ -5508,6 +5687,65 @@
             ],
             "time": "2026-02-01T09:30:04+00:00"
         },
+        {
+            "name": "stripe/stripe-php",
+            "version": "v17.6.0",
+            "source": {
+                "type": "git",
+                "url": "https://github.com/stripe/stripe-php.git",
+                "reference": "a6219df5df1324a0d3f1da25fb5e4b8a3307ea16"
+            },
+            "dist": {
+                "type": "zip",
+                "url": "https://api.github.com/repos/stripe/stripe-php/zipball/a6219df5df1324a0d3f1da25fb5e4b8a3307ea16",
+                "reference": "a6219df5df1324a0d3f1da25fb5e4b8a3307ea16",
+                "shasum": ""
+            },
+            "require": {
+                "ext-curl": "*",
+                "ext-json": "*",
+                "ext-mbstring": "*",
+                "php": ">=5.6.0"
+            },
+            "require-dev": {
+                "friendsofphp/php-cs-fixer": "3.72.0",
+                "phpstan/phpstan": "^1.2",
+                "phpunit/phpunit": "^5.7 || ^9.0"
+            },
+            "type": "library",
+            "extra": {
+                "branch-alias": {
+                    "dev-master": "2.0-dev"
+                }
+            },
+            "autoload": {
+                "psr-4": {
+                    "Stripe\\": "lib/"
+                }
+            },
+            "notification-url": "https://packagist.org/downloads/",
+            "license": [
+                "MIT"
+            ],
+            "authors": [
+                {
+                    "name": "Stripe and contributors",
+                    "homepage": "https://github.com/stripe/stripe-php/contributors"
+                }
+            ],
+            "description": "Stripe PHP Library",
+            "homepage": "https://stripe.com/",
+            "keywords": [
+                "api",
+                "payment processing",
+                "stripe"
+            ],
+            "support": {
+                "issues": "https://github.com/stripe/stripe-php/issues",
+                "source": "https://github.com/stripe/stripe-php/tree/v17.6.0"
+            },
+            "time": "2025-08-27T19:32:42+00:00"
+        },
         {
             "name": "symfony/clock",
             "version": "v8.0.8",
@@ -6708,6 +6946,94 @@
             ],
             "time": "2025-06-27T09:58:17+00:00"
         },
+        {
+            "name": "symfony/polyfill-intl-icu",
+            "version": "v1.35.0",
+            "source": {
+                "type": "git",
+                "url": "https://github.com/symfony/polyfill-intl-icu.git",
+                "reference": "3510b63d07376b04e57e27e82607d468bb134f78"
+            },
+            "dist": {
+                "type": "zip",
+                "url": "https://api.github.com/repos/symfony/polyfill-intl-icu/zipball/3510b63d07376b04e57e27e82607d468bb134f78",
+                "reference": "3510b63d07376b04e57e27e82607d468bb134f78",
+                "shasum": ""
+            },
+            "require": {
+                "php": ">=7.2"
+            },
+            "suggest": {
+                "ext-intl": "For best performance and support of other locales than \"en\""
+            },
+            "type": "library",
+            "extra": {
+                "thanks": {
+                    "url": "https://github.com/symfony/polyfill",
+                    "name": "symfony/polyfill"
+                }
+            },
+            "autoload": {
+                "files": [
+                    "bootstrap.php"
+                ],
+                "psr-4": {
+                    "Symfony\\Polyfill\\Intl\\Icu\\": ""
+                },
+                "classmap": [
+                    "Resources/stubs"
+                ],
+                "exclude-from-classmap": [
+                    "/Tests/"
+                ]
+            },
+            "notification-url": "https://packagist.org/downloads/",
+            "license": [
+                "MIT"
+            ],
+            "authors": [
+                {
+                    "name": "Nicolas Grekas",
+                    "email": "p@tchwork.com"
+                },
+                {
+                    "name": "Symfony Community",
+                    "homepage": "https://symfony.com/contributors"
+                }
+            ],
+            "description": "Symfony polyfill for intl's ICU-related data and classes",
+            "homepage": "https://symfony.com",
+            "keywords": [
+                "compatibility",
+                "icu",
+                "intl",
+                "polyfill",
+                "portable",
+                "shim"
+            ],
+            "support": {
+                "source": "https://github.com/symfony/polyfill-intl-icu/tree/v1.35.0"
+            },
+            "funding": [
+                {
+                    "url": "https://symfony.com/sponsor",
+                    "type": "custom"
+                },
+                {
+                    "url": "https://github.com/fabpot",
+                    "type": "github"
+                },
+                {
+                    "url": "https://github.com/nicolas-grekas",
+                    "type": "github"
+                },
+                {
+                    "url": "https://tidelift.com/funding/github/packagist/symfony/symfony",
+                    "type": "tidelift"
+                }
+            ],
+            "time": "2026-04-10T16:50:15+00:00"
+        },
         {
             "name": "symfony/polyfill-intl-idn",
             "version": "v1.33.0",

config/services.php

@@ -45,6 +45,10 @@ return [
         'api_key' => env('FRED_API_KEY'),
     ],
 
+    'eia' => [
+        'api_key' => env('EIA_API_KEY'),
+    ],
+
     'anthropic' => [
         'api_key' => env('ANTHROPIC_API_KEY'),
         'model' => env('ANTHROPIC_MODEL', 'claude-sonnet-4-6'),
@@ -68,4 +72,33 @@ return [
         'api_key' => env('FUELALERT_API_KEY'),
     ],
 
+    'onesignal' => [
+        'app_id' => env('ONESIGNAL_APP_ID'),
+        'api_key' => env('ONESIGNAL_API_KEY'),
+    ],
+
+    'vonage' => [
+        'key' => env('VONAGE_KEY'),
+        'secret' => env('VONAGE_SECRET'),
+        'whatsapp_from' => env('VONAGE_WHATSAPP_FROM'),
+        'sms_from' => env('VONAGE_SMS_FROM', 'FuelAlert'),
+    ],
+
+    'stripe' => [
+        'prices' => [
+            'basic' => [
+                'monthly' => env('STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_MONTHLY'),
+                'annual' => env('STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_ANNUAL'),
+            ],
+            'plus' => [
+                'monthly' => env('STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_MONTHLY'),
+                'annual' => env('STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_ANNUAL'),
+            ],
+            'pro' => [
+                'monthly' => env('STRIPE_PRICE_PRO_MONTHLY'),
+                'annual' => env('STRIPE_PRICE_PRO_ANNUAL'),
+            ],
+        ],
+    ],
+
 ];

database/factories/NotificationLogFactory.php

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace Database\Factories;
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+use App\Models\NotificationLog;
+use App\Models\User;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\Factory;
+
+/**
+ * @extends Factory<NotificationLog>
+ */
+class NotificationLogFactory extends Factory
+{
+    public function definition(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'user_id' => User::factory(),
+            'channel' => fake()->randomElement(['email', 'push', 'whatsapp', 'sms']),
+            'trigger_type' => fake()->randomElement(['price_threshold', 'score_change', 'scheduled_morning', 'scheduled_evening']),
+            'fuel_type' => fake()->randomElement(array_column(FuelType::cases(), 'value')),
+            'price' => fake()->optional()->randomFloat(3, 100, 180),
+            'sent' => true,
+            'missed_reason' => null,
+            'created_at' => now(),
+        ];
+    }
+
+    public function missed(string $reason = 'daily_limit'): static
+    {
+        return $this->state(fn () => [
+            'sent' => false,
+            'missed_reason' => $reason,
+        ]);
+    }
+}

database/factories/PlanFactory.php

@@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace Database\Factories;
+
+use App\Enums\PlanTier;
+use App\Models\Plan;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\Factory;
+
+/**
+ * @extends Factory<Plan>
+ */
+class PlanFactory extends Factory
+{
+    public function definition(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'name' => PlanTier::Free->value,
+            'stripe_price_id_monthly' => null,
+            'stripe_price_id_annual' => null,
+            'max_fuel_types' => 1,
+            'email_enabled' => true,
+            'email_frequency' => 'weekly_digest',
+            'push_enabled' => false,
+            'push_frequency' => 'none',
+            'whatsapp_enabled' => false,
+            'whatsapp_daily_limit' => 0,
+            'whatsapp_scheduled_updates' => 0,
+            'sms_enabled' => false,
+            'sms_daily_limit' => 0,
+            'ai_predictions' => false,
+            'price_threshold' => false,
+            'score_alerts' => false,
+            'active' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+
+    public function free(): static
+    {
+        return $this->state(fn () => [
+            'name' => PlanTier::Free->value,
+            'stripe_price_id_monthly' => null,
+            'stripe_price_id_annual' => null,
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    public function basic(): static
+    {
+        return $this->state(fn () => [
+            'name' => PlanTier::Basic->value,
+            'stripe_price_id_monthly' => 'price_basic_monthly_test',
+            'stripe_price_id_annual' => 'price_basic_annual_test',
+            'max_fuel_types' => 1,
+            'email_enabled' => true,
+            'email_frequency' => 'daily',
+            'push_enabled' => true,
+            'push_frequency' => 'daily',
+            'whatsapp_enabled' => true,
+            'whatsapp_daily_limit' => 5,
+            'whatsapp_scheduled_updates' => 2,
+            'sms_enabled' => false,
+            'sms_daily_limit' => 0,
+            'ai_predictions' => false,
+            'price_threshold' => true,
+            'score_alerts' => true,
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    public function plus(): static
+    {
+        return $this->state(fn () => [
+            'name' => PlanTier::Plus->value,
+            'stripe_price_id_monthly' => 'price_plus_monthly_test',
+            'stripe_price_id_annual' => 'price_plus_annual_test',
+            'max_fuel_types' => 1,
+            'email_enabled' => true,
+            'email_frequency' => 'triggered',
+            'push_enabled' => true,
+            'push_frequency' => 'triggered',
+            'whatsapp_enabled' => true,
+            'whatsapp_daily_limit' => 5,
+            'whatsapp_scheduled_updates' => 2,
+            'sms_enabled' => true,
+            'sms_daily_limit' => 1,
+            'ai_predictions' => true,
+            'price_threshold' => true,
+            'score_alerts' => true,
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    public function pro(): static
+    {
+        return $this->state(fn () => [
+            'name' => PlanTier::Pro->value,
+            'stripe_price_id_monthly' => 'price_pro_monthly_test',
+            'stripe_price_id_annual' => 'price_pro_annual_test',
+            'max_fuel_types' => null,
+            'email_enabled' => true,
+            'email_frequency' => 'triggered',
+            'push_enabled' => true,
+            'push_frequency' => 'triggered',
+            'whatsapp_enabled' => true,
+            'whatsapp_daily_limit' => 5,
+            'whatsapp_scheduled_updates' => 2,
+            'sms_enabled' => true,
+            'sms_daily_limit' => 3,
+            'ai_predictions' => true,
+            'price_threshold' => true,
+            'score_alerts' => true,
+        ]);
+    }
+}

database/factories/UserNotificationPreferenceFactory.php

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace Database\Factories;
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+use App\Models\User;
+use App\Models\UserNotificationPreference;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\Factory;
+
+/**
+ * @extends Factory<UserNotificationPreference>
+ */
+class UserNotificationPreferenceFactory extends Factory
+{
+    public function definition(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'user_id' => User::factory(),
+            'channel' => fake()->randomElement(['email', 'push', 'whatsapp', 'sms']),
+            'fuel_type' => fake()->randomElement(array_column(FuelType::cases(), 'value')),
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}