feat: add prediction rebuild design spec — Layer 1 ridge model, LLM news overlay, volatility regime detector

Documents complete replacement of six-signal aggregator with calibrated
ridge forecaster trained on 435 weeks of BEIS pump prices. Five-layer
architecture: weekly baseline (Layer 1), local snapshot (Layer 2),
rule-gated verdict merger (Layer 3), daily LLM news

.claude/rules/api-data.md

@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ for that `(station_id, fuel_type)` combination. Avoids row explosion on unchange
 ```
 FUEL_FINDER_CLIENT_ID=
 FUEL_FINDER_CLIENT_SECRET=
-FUEL_FINDER_BASE_URL=https://api.fuel-finder.service.gov.uk
+FUEL_FINDER_BASE_URL=https://www.fuel-finder.service.gov.uk/api/v1
 ```
 
 ## Postcodes.io — location resolution

.claude/rules/payments.md

@@ -4,51 +4,121 @@
 
 Laravel Cashier (Stripe). Never implement custom billing logic — use Cashier methods.
 
-## Stripe products
+## Source-of-truth spec
+
+`docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-stripe-subscription-lifecycle-design.md`
+defines the full subscription lifecycle. This file is a quick-reference; the
+spec document is authoritative on any contradiction.
+
+## Stripe products & prices
+
+Three recurring subscription products, each with monthly and annual prices:
 
-Three recurring subscription products (monthly):
 - `basic` — £0.99/mo
 - `plus`  — £2.49/mo
 - `pro`   — £3.99/mo
 
-Price IDs stored in `config/services.php` under `stripe.prices.*`, loaded from .env:
+Price IDs stored in `config/services.php` under `stripe.prices.*`, loaded from `.env`:
+
 ```
-STRIPE_PRICES_BASIC=price_xxx
-STRIPE_PRICES_PLUS=price_xxx
-STRIPE_PRICES_PRO=price_xxx
+STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_MONTHLY=price_xxx
+STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_ANNUAL=price_xxx
+STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_MONTHLY=price_xxx
+STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_ANNUAL=price_xxx
+STRIPE_PRICE_PRO_MONTHLY=price_xxx
+STRIPE_PRICE_PRO_ANNUAL=price_xxx
 ```
 
-## Tier helpers (SubscriptionService)
+Resolution from a Cashier subscription's Stripe price ID to a plan row is done
+in `Plan::resolveForUser()` — never hand-code tier lookups elsewhere.
 
-```php
-public function tier(User $user): string
-// Returns 'free' | 'basic' | 'plus' | 'pro'
+## Tier resolution
 
-public function canReceiveSms(User $user): bool
-// true if tier is plus or pro
-
-public function smsRemainingThisMonth(User $user): int
-// checks alerts table count for current month
-```
-
-Never check tier inline in components or notification classes — always use SubscriptionService.
+Use `PlanFeatures::for($user)->tier()` — returns `'free' | 'basic' | 'plus' | 'pro'`.
+Never inspect `$user->subscribed(...)` directly in components, notifications, or
+jobs. `PlanFeatures` is the single source of entitlement truth.
 
 ## Cashier conventions
 
-- Billable model: `User` (add `use Billable` trait)
-- Webhook route: `POST /stripe/webhook` — handled by Cashier automatically
+- Billable model: `User` (uses `Billable` trait)
+- Webhook route: `POST /stripe/webhook` — auto-registered by Cashier
 - Webhook secret in `.env` as `STRIPE_WEBHOOK_SECRET`
-- Always handle `customer.subscription.deleted` to downgrade user to free tier
-- Trial: none for v1
+- `STRIPE_KEY` and `STRIPE_SECRET` also required
+- `CASHIER_CURRENCY=gbp`
+- Trial period: none
 
-## Upgrade / downgrade flow
+## User-facing flows — all via Stripe Customer Portal
 
-- User upgrades in account settings Livewire component
-- Swap plan with `$user->subscription()->swap($newPriceId)`
-- Cashier handles proration automatically
-- On downgrade to free: cancel subscription, remove WhatsApp/SMS notification preference
+**The Stripe-hosted Customer Billing Portal handles every subscription
+management action.** Do not build custom Livewire upgrade/downgrade UIs.
+
+| Flow | Path |
+|---|---|
+| Sign up for paid tier | Pricing page → `GET /billing/checkout/{tier}/{cadence}` → Stripe Checkout |
+| Upgrade | Pricing page → `GET /billing/portal` → Stripe Portal → pick higher plan → Stripe prorates, charges difference immediately |
+| Downgrade | Stripe Portal → pick lower plan → Stripe schedules change at period end |
+| Cancel | Stripe Portal → cancel → `cancel_at_period_end=true`; features stay until period end |
+| Update card | Stripe Portal, or hosted link in Stripe's transactional dunning email |
+| Reactivate after cancel / post-grace | Pricing page → Checkout (new subscription) |
+
+Annual downgrades take effect at the end of the year — no mid-term refunds.
+
+## Webhook handling
+
+Single consolidated listener `HandleStripeWebhook` bound to Cashier's
+`WebhookReceived` event in `AppServiceProvider`. Routes on `$event->payload['type']`:
+
+| Event | Behaviour |
+|---|---|
+| `customer.subscription.created` | Bust `plan_for_user_{id}` cache |
+| `customer.subscription.updated` | Bust cache |
+| `customer.subscription.deleted` | Downgrade to free, disable WhatsApp + SMS prefs, clear `grace_period_until`, bust cache |
+| `invoice.payment_succeeded` | Clear `grace_period_until`, bust cache |
+| `invoice.payment_failed` | Set `grace_period_until = now()->addDays(5)`, queue day-3 + day-5 branded reminder mailables |
+
+All branches must be idempotent — Stripe retries failed webhook deliveries.
+
+`invoice.upcoming` is intentionally not handled.
+
+## Payment failure & grace period
+
+5-day grace window. Stripe is configured (dashboard) to retry on days 1, 3, 5
+and **cancel the subscription** after the final failure.
+
+- Features stay ON during grace — `past_due` is treated as subscribed by
+  Cashier, so `PlanFeatures::tier()` keeps returning the paid tier.
+- After day 5 Stripe cancels → `customer.subscription.deleted` → downgrade.
+- User can pay at any time via Stripe's dunning email link or the Customer
+  Portal — on success, grace is cleared automatically by the webhook.
+
+## Dunning emails
+
+- **Stripe sends:** payment-failed "update your card", successful-payment
+  receipts, upcoming-renewal reminders. Configure in Stripe dashboard.
+- **We send:** branded reminder mailables on day 3 and day 5 after a
+  payment failure. Both mailables self-cancel by checking
+  `$this->user->grace_period_until === null` before sending — simpler than
+  cancelling queued jobs when payment recovers.
+
+## Data model additions
+
+- `users.grace_period_until` — nullable timestamp. Set on
+  `invoice.payment_failed`, cleared on `invoice.payment_succeeded` or
+  `customer.subscription.deleted`. Drives the dashboard past-due banner.
+
+No other schema additions. Cashier + Stripe are the source of truth for
+subscription state.
+
+## VAT / Stripe Tax
+
+Not enabled for v1. Revisit before £90k/year turnover (~£1.88k/month at
+£3.99 avg, or ~470 paying pro users).
 
 ## Stripe test mode
 
 Use Stripe test keys in local `.env`. Never commit real Stripe keys.
-Test cards: 4242424242424242 (success), 4000000000000002 (decline).
+
+Test cards:
+- `4242 4242 4242 4242` — success
+- `4000 0000 0000 0002` — generic decline
+- `4000 0000 0000 0341` — renewal charge fails (use to test dunning flow)

.claude/rules/prediction.md

@@ -0,0 +1,211 @@
+# Prediction Engine
+
+The "should I fill up now or wait?" recommendation that drives the headline,
+notifications, and the entire product. Lives in `app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php`
+and is called from `Api\PredictionController`.
+
+> The prediction is the product's selling point. Confidence calibration matters
+> as much as direction — a "Wait — prices falling" headline at 30% confidence is
+> worse than no recommendation at all.
+
+## Output
+
+`predict(?float $lat, ?float $lng): array` returns:
+
+| Key | Type | Notes |
+|---|---|---|
+| `fuel_type` | string | currently always `'e10'` |
+| `current_avg` | float | current price avg in pence (regional 50km if coords given, else national) |
+| `predicted_direction` | `'up' | 'down' | 'stable'` | aggregated vote |
+| `predicted_change_pence` | float | `slope × 7` — pence change projected over the prediction horizon |
+| `confidence_score` | float (0–100) | see "Confidence" below |
+| `confidence_label` | `'low' | 'medium' | 'high'` | bucketing of `confidence_score` |
+| `action` | `'fill_now' | 'wait' | 'no_signal'` | UI action mapped from direction |
+| `reasoning` | string | concatenation of enabled signal `detail` fields, or action-aware fallback |
+| `prediction_horizon_days` | int | `7` |
+| `region_key` | `'national' | 'regional'` | depends on whether coords were passed |
+| `methodology` | string | identifier for backtesting/auditing |
+| `weekly_summary` | object | yesterday/today/tomorrow + 7-day series (see below) |
+| `signals` | object | per-signal breakdown (see below) |
+
+## Signals
+
+Each signal returns `{score, confidence, direction, detail, data_points, enabled}`.
+
+| Signal | Source | Enabled when | Score formula |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| `trend` | regression on daily national avg, 5-day adaptive → 14-day | ≥2 daily averages and R² ≥ 0.5 | `min(1, |slope| / SLOPE_SATURATION_PENCE) × sign(slope)` (saturates at `0.5p/day`) |
+| `day_of_week` | weekday averages over last 90 days | `unique_days ≥ DAY_OF_WEEK_MIN_DAYS` (21) | `±1` if today ≥1.5p above/below week avg, else `0`; confidence scales with `unique_days/90` |
+| `brand_behaviour` | supermarket vs major regression slopes over 7 days | both groups have ≥2 data points and divergence ≥1.0p | `±1` if leader is up/down |
+| `regional_momentum` | regression on stations within 50km, 14 days | coords provided + ≥3 daily averages within radius | `±0.7` |
+| `price_stickiness` | mean station hold duration over 30 days | ≥10 stations with ≥2 changes | `±0.1` confidence modifier |
+| `oil` | latest `price_predictions` row covering today or later | a row exists | `±1` if rising/falling, `0` if flat; confidence = stored `confidence/100` |
+| `national_momentum` | reserved | always disabled today | n/a |
+
+### Oil signal — source preference
+
+`computeOilSignal()` picks the freshest row in this order:
+
+1. `source = 'llm_with_context'`
+2. `source = 'llm'`
+3. `source = 'ewma'`
+
+`OilPriceService` (in `app/Services/OilPriceService.php` and friends) populates
+this table daily at 7am via the scheduler. Cap: LLM confidence is capped at 85,
+EWMA at 65 (see `.claude/rules/api-data.md`).
+
+The Brent oil signal is the **single biggest unlock** for confidence — it
+captures world-news context (OPEC, geopolitical) that pure local price history
+can't see.
+
+### Day-of-week threshold
+
+The original spec said 56 days. Lowered to 21 because:
+- The signal's `confidence` is already `min(1, unique_days / 90)` — a 21-day
+  signal naturally contributes only `~0.23` confidence and lifts as more data
+  accumulates.
+- 56 days delays the signal so long it might as well not exist for new users.
+
+## Aggregator
+
+`aggregateSignals(signals, hasCoordinates)` returns `[direction, confidence_score]`.
+
+### Weights
+
+```
+National (no coords):
+  trend             0.30
+  oil               0.25
+  dayOfWeek         0.20
+  brandBehaviour    0.15
+  stickiness        0.10
+                    ----
+                    1.00
+
+Regional (with coords):
+  regionalMomentum  0.35
+  oil               0.20
+  trend             0.15
+  dayOfWeek         0.15
+  brandBehaviour    0.10
+  stickiness        0.05
+                    ----
+                    1.00
+```
+
+### Direction
+
+```
+directional_score = Σ(score × signal_confidence × weight)  // only signals with direction ≠ stable
+directional_weight = Σ(weight)                              // only signals with direction ≠ stable
+
+normalised = directional_score / directional_weight   (0 if directional_weight ≈ 0)
+
+direction = 'up'    if normalised >=  0.1
+            'down'  if normalised <= -0.1
+            'stable' otherwise
+```
+
+**Stable signals do not dilute the direction vote.** They are excluded from both
+the numerator and denominator. This is a key fix — previously a single weak
+trend signal could be cancelled out by three "stable" signals adding weight
+without contributing direction.
+
+### Confidence
+
+```
+avg_signal_confidence = Σ(signal_confidence × weight) / Σ(weight)   // all enabled signals
+agreement = computeAgreement(signals, weights, final_direction)     // 0..1
+
+confidence_score = avg_signal_confidence × agreement × 100   (capped at 100)
+```
+
+**`avg_signal_confidence`** is how confident the individual signals are in
+their own readings (R², sample size, model confidence). Stable signals DO
+contribute here — knowing prices are stable is itself a confident answer.
+
+**`agreement`** measures how the signals line up with the chosen direction:
+- aligned signal: full credit (`signal_confidence × weight`)
+- one side stable, other directional: half credit
+- opposing signals: no credit
+- final score: `Σ credit / Σ max_credit`
+
+This separation is the second key fix. Previously `confidence = |normalised| × 100`
+conflated "the signals point strongly somewhere" with "we're sure". Now:
+- Strong signals all agreeing → high `confidence_score`
+- Strong signals disagreeing → low `confidence_score`
+- Weak signals → low `confidence_score` (via low individual confidences)
+
+### Confidence labels
+
+| `confidence_score` | `confidence_label` | UI behaviour |
+|---|---|---|
+| ≥ 70 | `high` | fire notification when allowed |
+| 40–69 | `medium` | dashboard only |
+| < 40 | `low` | dashboard only |
+
+## Reasoning
+
+`buildReasoning()` joins `detail` strings from enabled signals. If none have
+material content, it falls back to an **action-aware** sentence:
+
+| `direction` / `action` | Fallback |
+|---|---|
+| `up` / `fill_now` | "Mild upward signals — top up soon if you're nearby." |
+| `down` / `wait` | "Mild downward signals — wait a day or two if your tank can hold." |
+| `stable` / `no_signal` | "No clear pattern — fill up at the cheapest station near you now." |
+
+The earlier hard-coded "fill up" fallback contradicted "Wait — prices falling"
+headlines and is no longer used.
+
+## Weekly summary
+
+`computeWeeklySummary()` returns the Y/T/T strip + last-7-days numbers:
+
+| Field | Meaning |
+|---|---|
+| `yesterday_avg` / `today_avg` | regional (50km) → national fallback |
+| `tomorrow_estimated_avg` | `today_avg + trend.slope` (slope is 0 if trend disabled) |
+| `yesterday_today_delta_pence` | `today − yesterday`; sign tells you which was cheaper |
+| `last_7_days_series` | array of `{date, avg}`, one entry per day with data |
+| `last_7_days_change_pence` | `series[last].avg − series[0].avg` |
+| `cheapest_day` / `priciest_day` | min/max of the series |
+| `is_regional` | `true` only if regional data was actually used; `false` after national fallback |
+
+## API gate
+
+The prediction is **embedded in the `/api/stations` response** under the
+`prediction` key — there is no standalone prediction endpoint. The same payload
+shape ships back regardless of route, but the gate runs server-side:
+`PlanFeatures::for($user)->can('ai_predictions')`.
+
+- ai_predictions allowed (plus, pro): full multi-signal payload
+  (`fuel_type`, `current_avg`, `predicted_direction`, `confidence_score`,
+  `reasoning`, `weekly_summary`, `signals`, …)
+- otherwise (free, basic, guest): stripped teaser
+  `{fuel_type, predicted_direction, tier_locked: true}` for the upsell card
+
+Bundling into `/api/stations` ties prediction availability to a real station
+search — there is no way to scrape the prediction independently. Don't add a
+separate prediction route or accept a request body without coords; the
+prediction is always computed alongside a search.
+
+## What never to do
+
+- Don't introduce a new signal without giving it `enabled`, `confidence`, and a
+  weight in both national + regional weight maps.
+- Don't read `brent_prices` directly from the prediction service — go through
+  `price_predictions`. The prediction table is the source of truth for
+  oil-direction-as-a-signal.
+- Don't reintroduce a confidence formula that uses `|directional_score|` — that
+  conflates magnitude with sureness.
+- Don't add a stable-direction signal to `directional_weight` — stable signals
+  must not dilute direction.
+
+---
+paths:
+  - "app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php"
+  - "app/Http/Controllers/Api/StationController.php"
+  - "tests/Unit/Services/NationalFuelPredictionServiceTest.php"
+  - "tests/Feature/Api/StationControllerTest.php"
+---

.claude/settings.json

@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+{
+    "permissions": {
+        "deny": [
+            "Read(./.env)",
+            "Read(.env)",
+            "Bash(cat .env)",
+            "Bash(cat ./.env)",
+            "Bash(head .env)",
+            "Bash(head ./.env)",
+            "Bash(tail .env)",
+            "Bash(tail ./.env)",
+            "Bash(less .env)",
+            "Bash(less ./.env)",
+            "Bash(more .env)",
+            "Bash(more ./.env)",
+            "Bash(grep * .env)",
+            "Bash(grep * ./.env)",
+            "Bash(rg * .env)",
+            "Bash(rg * ./.env)",
+            "Bash(awk * .env)",
+            "Bash(awk * ./.env)",
+            "Bash(php artisan migrate:fresh)",
+            "Bash(php artisan migrate:fresh *)",
+            "Bash(php artisan migrate:reset)",
+            "Bash(php artisan migrate:reset *)",
+            "Bash(php artisan db:wipe)",
+            "Bash(php artisan db:wipe *)"
+        ]
+    }
+}

.env.example

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
-APP_NAME=Laravel
+APP_NAME="Fuel Finder"
 APP_ENV=local
 APP_KEY=
 APP_DEBUG=true
-APP_URL=http://localhost
+APP_URL=http://fuel-price.test
 
 APP_LOCALE=en
 APP_FALLBACK_LOCALE=en
@@ -20,18 +20,18 @@ LOG_STACK=single
 LOG_DEPRECATIONS_CHANNEL=null
 LOG_LEVEL=debug
 
-DB_CONNECTION=sqlite
-# DB_HOST=127.0.0.1
-# DB_PORT=3306
-# DB_DATABASE=laravel
-# DB_USERNAME=root
-# DB_PASSWORD=
+DB_CONNECTION=mysql
+ DB_HOST=127.0.0.1
+ DB_PORT=3306
+ DB_DATABASE=fuel-price
+ DB_USERNAME=fuel-price
+ DB_PASSWORD=password
 
 SESSION_DRIVER=database
 SESSION_LIFETIME=120
 SESSION_ENCRYPT=false
 SESSION_PATH=/
-SESSION_DOMAIN=null
+SESSION_DOMAIN=.fuel-price.test
 
 BROADCAST_CONNECTION=log
 FILESYSTEM_DISK=local
@@ -64,19 +64,37 @@ AWS_USE_PATH_STYLE_ENDPOINT=false
 
 VITE_APP_NAME="${APP_NAME}"
 
-FUELALERT_API_KEY=
+FUEL_FINDER_CLIENT_ID=
+FUEL_FINDER_CLIENT_SECRET=
+FUEL_FINDER_BASE_URL=https://www.fuel-finder.service.gov.uk/api/v1
+
+ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=
+ANTHROPIC_MODEL=claude-haiku-4-5
 
 FRED_API_KEY=
-EIA_API_KEY=            # US EIA Open Data API key — register free at eia.gov/opendata
+
+ONESIGNAL_APP_ID=
+ONESIGNAL_API_KEY=
+
+VONAGE_KEY=
+VONAGE_SECRET=
+VONAGE_WHATSAPP_FROM=
+VONAGE_SMS_FROM=FuelAlert
+API_SECRET_KEY=
+EIA_API_KEY=
+
+LLM_PREDICTION_PROVIDER=anthropic
 
 STRIPE_KEY=
 STRIPE_SECRET=
 STRIPE_WEBHOOK_SECRET=
 CASHIER_CURRENCY=gbp
 
-STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_MONTHLY=
-STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_ANNUAL=
-STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_MONTHLY=
-STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_ANNUAL=
+STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_MONTHLY=price_1TM3cwJuhjW3IKHlJCHz0xmU
+STRIPE_PRICE_BASIC_ANNUAL=price_1TM3nlJuhjW3IKHlwcHF5W9v
+STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_MONTHLY=price_1TM3oqJuhjW3IKHlbQUMhrnm
+STRIPE_PRICE_PLUS_ANNUAL=price_1TM3pXJuhjW3IKHlfQenHsf1
 STRIPE_PRICE_PRO_MONTHLY=
 STRIPE_PRICE_PRO_ANNUAL=
+
+SANCTUM_STATEFUL_DOMAINS=fuel-price.test

.gitignore

@@ -22,3 +22,5 @@ yarn-error.log
 /.vscode
 /.zed
 /.tmp/
+/.worktrees/
+/ONSPD_Online_Latest_Centroids_*.csv

CLAUDE.md

@@ -3,6 +3,20 @@
 UK fuel price intelligence app. Subscribers receive fill-up timing recommendations
 based on local price trends. Built solo by a PHP/Laravel developer.
 
+## Destructive DB operations — HARD STOP
+
+**Never run** the following commands. If one of them is the right step, stop, tell the user the exact command, and ask them to run it themselves:
+
+- `php artisan migrate:fresh` (with any flags, including `--seed`)
+- `php artisan migrate:reset`
+- `php artisan db:wipe`
+- Raw `DROP TABLE`, `DROP DATABASE`, or `TRUNCATE` via tinker, `database-query`, or any MCP tool
+- Any sequence that effectively rebuilds the schema or drops tables
+
+These are also blocked at the harness level via `.claude/settings.json` deny rules, but the prose rule applies everywhere the block doesn't reach (compound shell commands, MCP tools, etc.).
+
+A user saying "trust me", "do the refactor", "clean up the mess", or "I want it in db" is **not** authorisation for these — the architectural decision is separate from the operational step. If a migration is awkward to apply in-place, propose the in-place version (read JSON → populate new columns → drop the old column) instead of suggesting a rebuild. Asking once at the start of a task does not authorise repeat wipes later in the session.
+
 ## Project overview
 
 - **Product**: "Fill up now or wait?" — local fuel price trend scoring for UK drivers
@@ -31,6 +45,7 @@ npm run dev                # Vite asset watcher
 @.claude/rules/database.md
 @.claude/rules/notifications.md
 @.claude/rules/scoring.md
+@.claude/rules/prediction.md
 @.claude/rules/payments.md
 @.claude/rules/tiers.md
 @.claude/rules/livewire.md

app/Actions/Fortify/CreateNewUser.php

@@ -3,14 +3,14 @@
 namespace App\Actions\Fortify;
 
 use App\Concerns\PasswordValidationRules;
-use App\Concerns\ProfileValidationRules;
 use App\Models\User;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Validator;
+use Illuminate\Validation\Rule;
 use Laravel\Fortify\Contracts\CreatesNewUsers;
 
 class CreateNewUser implements CreatesNewUsers
 {
-    use PasswordValidationRules, ProfileValidationRules;
+    use PasswordValidationRules;
 
     /**
      * Validate and create a newly registered user.
@@ -20,7 +20,8 @@ class CreateNewUser implements CreatesNewUsers
     public function create(array $input): User
     {
         Validator::make($input, [
-            ...$this->profileRules(),
+            'name' => ['required', 'string', 'max:255'],
+            'email' => ['required', 'string', 'email', 'max:255', Rule::unique(User::class)],
             'password' => $this->passwordRules(),
         ])->validate();
 

app/Concerns/PasswordValidationRules.php

@@ -16,14 +16,4 @@ trait PasswordValidationRules
     {
         return ['required', 'string', Password::default(), 'confirmed'];
     }
-
-    /**
-     * Get the validation rules used to validate the current password.
-     *
-     * @return array<int, Rule|array<mixed>|string>
-     */
-    protected function currentPasswordRules(): array
-    {
-        return ['required', 'string', 'current_password'];
-    }
 }

app/Concerns/ProfileValidationRules.php

@@ -1,50 +0,0 @@
-<?php
-
-namespace App\Concerns;
-
-use App\Models\User;
-use Illuminate\Validation\Rule;
-
-trait ProfileValidationRules
-{
-    /**
-     * Get the validation rules used to validate user profiles.
-     *
-     * @return array<string, array<int, \Illuminate\Contracts\Validation\Rule|array<mixed>|string>>
-     */
-    protected function profileRules(?int $userId = null): array
-    {
-        return [
-            'name' => $this->nameRules(),
-            'email' => $this->emailRules($userId),
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Get the validation rules used to validate user names.
-     *
-     * @return array<int, \Illuminate\Contracts\Validation\Rule|array<mixed>|string>
-     */
-    protected function nameRules(): array
-    {
-        return ['required', 'string', 'max:255'];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Get the validation rules used to validate user emails.
-     *
-     * @return array<int, \Illuminate\Contracts\Validation\Rule|array<mixed>|string>
-     */
-    protected function emailRules(?int $userId = null): array
-    {
-        return [
-            'required',
-            'string',
-            'email',
-            'max:255',
-            $userId === null
-                ? Rule::unique(User::class)
-                : Rule::unique(User::class)->ignore($userId),
-        ];
-    }
-}

app/Console/Commands/ArchiveOldPricesCommand.php

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Console\Commands;
+
+use App\Models\StationPrice;
+use App\Models\StationPriceArchive;
+use Illuminate\Console\Command;
+use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+class ArchiveOldPricesCommand extends Command
+{
+    protected $signature = 'fuel:archive';
+
+    protected $description = 'Move station price history older than 12 months to the archive table';
+
+    public function handle(): int
+    {
+        $cutoff = Carbon::now()->subMonths(12);
+
+        $count = StationPrice::where('price_effective_at', '<', $cutoff)->count();
+
+        if ($count === 0) {
+            $this->info('No prices to archive.');
+
+            return self::SUCCESS;
+        }
+
+        $this->info("Archiving {$count} price record(s) older than {$cutoff->toDateString()}...");
+
+        StationPrice::where('price_effective_at', '<', $cutoff)
+            ->chunkById(1000, function ($prices): void {
+                $rows = $prices->map(fn (StationPrice $price): array => [
+                    'station_id' => $price->station_id,
+                    'fuel_type' => $price->fuel_type->value,
+                    'price_pence' => $price->price_pence,
+                    'price_effective_at' => $price->price_effective_at,
+                    'price_reported_at' => $price->price_reported_at,
+                    'recorded_at' => $price->recorded_at,
+                ])->all();
+
+                DB::transaction(function () use ($rows, $prices): void {
+                    StationPriceArchive::insert($rows);
+                    StationPrice::whereIn('id', $prices->pluck('id'))->delete();
+                });
+            });
+
+        $this->info('Archive complete.');
+
+        return self::SUCCESS;
+    }
+}

app/Console/Commands/FetchOilPrices.php

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ use App\Services\BrentPriceSources\BrentPriceFetchException;
 use Illuminate\Console\Attributes\Description;
 use Illuminate\Console\Attributes\Signature;
 use Illuminate\Console\Command;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
 
 #[Signature('oil:fetch')]
 #[Description('Fetch latest Brent crude prices (EIA primary, FRED fallback)')]
@@ -20,6 +21,7 @@ class FetchOilPrices extends Command
 
             return self::SUCCESS;
         } catch (BrentPriceFetchException $e) {
+            Log::warning('FetchOilPrices: EIA fetch failed, falling back to FRED', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
             $this->warn('EIA fetch failed: '.$e->getMessage().'. Trying FRED...');
         }
 
@@ -29,6 +31,7 @@ class FetchOilPrices extends Command
 
             return self::SUCCESS;
         } catch (BrentPriceFetchException $e) {
+            Log::error('FetchOilPrices: both EIA and FRED failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
             $this->error('Both EIA and FRED failed: '.$e->getMessage());
 
             return self::FAILURE;

app/Console/Commands/ImportPostcodes.php

@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Console\Commands;
+
+use Illuminate\Console\Attributes\Description;
+use Illuminate\Console\Attributes\Signature;
+use Illuminate\Console\Command;
+use Illuminate\Database\Schema\Blueprint;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schema;
+use Throwable;
+
+#[Signature('postcodes:import {--file= : Path to ONSPD CSV file}')]
+#[Description('Import UK postcodes (ONSPD) into the local postcodes and outcodes tables')]
+final class ImportPostcodes extends Command
+{
+    private const int CHUNK_SIZE = 1000;
+
+    public function handle(): int
+    {
+        $file = $this->option('file');
+
+        if ($file === null || ! is_readable($file)) {
+            $this->error('--file is required and must be a readable path to an ONSPD CSV.');
+
+            return self::FAILURE;
+        }
+
+        $handle = fopen($file, 'r');
+
+        if ($handle === false) {
+            $this->error("Unable to open {$file}.");
+
+            return self::FAILURE;
+        }
+
+        $header = fgetcsv($handle);
+
+        if ($header === false) {
+            $this->error('CSV is empty.');
+            fclose($handle);
+
+            return self::FAILURE;
+        }
+
+        $headerCounts = array_count_values(array_map('strtolower', $header));
+        $columns = array_change_key_case(array_flip($header), CASE_LOWER);
+
+        $pcdColumn = null;
+
+        foreach (['pcd', 'pcds', 'pcd7', 'pcd8'] as $candidate) {
+            if (isset($columns[$candidate])) {
+                $pcdColumn = $candidate;
+                break;
+            }
+        }
+
+        if ($pcdColumn === null) {
+            $this->error('Missing required postcode column (expected one of: pcd, pcds, pcd7, pcd8).');
+            fclose($handle);
+
+            return self::FAILURE;
+        }
+
+        foreach ([$pcdColumn, 'lat', 'long'] as $required) {
+            if (($headerCounts[$required] ?? 0) > 1) {
+                $this->error("Column '{$required}' appears more than once — refusing to import.");
+                fclose($handle);
+
+                return self::FAILURE;
+            }
+        }
+
+        foreach (['lat', 'long'] as $required) {
+            if (! isset($columns[$required])) {
+                $this->error("Missing required column '{$required}'.");
+                fclose($handle);
+
+                return self::FAILURE;
+            }
+        }
+
+        $hasDoterm = isset($columns['doterm']);
+
+        // Stream into a staging table first. Only swap into the live
+        // postcodes / outcodes tables once the full CSV has been consumed —
+        // a mid-stream failure leaves production data untouched.
+        Schema::dropIfExists('postcodes_staging');
+        Schema::create('postcodes_staging', function (Blueprint $table): void {
+            $table->string('postcode', 7);
+            $table->string('outcode', 4);
+            $table->decimal('lat', 10, 7);
+            $table->decimal('lng', 10, 7);
+        });
+
+        $buffer = [];
+        $imported = 0;
+
+        try {
+            while (($row = fgetcsv($handle)) !== false) {
+                if ($hasDoterm && trim((string) ($row[$columns['doterm']] ?? '')) !== '') {
+                    continue;
+                }
+
+                $lat = trim((string) ($row[$columns['lat']] ?? ''));
+                $lng = trim((string) ($row[$columns['long']] ?? ''));
+
+                if ($lat === '' || $lng === '') {
+                    continue;
+                }
+
+                $pcd = strtoupper(preg_replace('/\s+/', '', (string) $row[$columns[$pcdColumn]]));
+
+                if ($pcd === '' || strlen($pcd) < 5) {
+                    continue;
+                }
+
+                $buffer[] = [
+                    'postcode' => $pcd,
+                    'outcode' => substr($pcd, 0, strlen($pcd) - 3),
+                    'lat' => (float) $lat,
+                    'lng' => (float) $lng,
+                ];
+
+                if (count($buffer) >= self::CHUNK_SIZE) {
+                    DB::table('postcodes_staging')->insert($buffer);
+                    $imported += count($buffer);
+                    $buffer = [];
+                }
+            }
+
+            if ($buffer !== []) {
+                DB::table('postcodes_staging')->insert($buffer);
+                $imported += count($buffer);
+            }
+
+            // Swap: empty live tables, copy from staging, derive outcodes.
+            DB::table('outcodes')->truncate();
+            DB::table('postcodes')->truncate();
+            DB::statement(
+                'INSERT INTO postcodes (postcode, outcode, lat, lng)
+                 SELECT postcode, outcode, lat, lng FROM postcodes_staging'
+            );
+            DB::statement(
+                'INSERT INTO outcodes (outcode, lat, lng)
+                 SELECT outcode, AVG(lat), AVG(lng) FROM postcodes GROUP BY outcode'
+            );
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            $this->error('Import failed — live tables left untouched: '.$e->getMessage());
+
+            return self::FAILURE;
+        } finally {
+            fclose($handle);
+            Schema::dropIfExists('postcodes_staging');
+        }
+
+        $this->info("Imported {$imported} postcodes.");
+        $this->info('Derived '.DB::table('outcodes')->count().' outcode centroids.');
+
+        return self::SUCCESS;
+    }
+}

app/Filament/Resources/Plans/Schemas/PlanForm.php

@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ class PlanForm
             ->components([
                 Section::make('Fuel Types')
                     ->schema([
-                        TextInput::make('features.fuel_types.max')
+                        TextInput::make('max_fuel_types')
                             ->label('Max fuel types')
                             ->helperText('Leave blank for unlimited.')
                             ->numeric()
@@ -28,9 +28,9 @@ class PlanForm
                 Section::make('Email')
                     ->columns(2)
                     ->schema([
-                        Toggle::make('features.email.enabled')
+                        Toggle::make('email_enabled')
                             ->label('Enabled'),
-                        Select::make('features.email.frequency')
+                        Select::make('email_frequency')
                             ->label('Frequency')
                             ->options([
                                 'weekly_digest' => 'Weekly digest',
@@ -42,9 +42,9 @@ class PlanForm
                 Section::make('Push')
                     ->columns(2)
                     ->schema([
-                        Toggle::make('features.push.enabled')
+                        Toggle::make('push_enabled')
                             ->label('Enabled'),
-                        Select::make('features.push.frequency')
+                        Select::make('push_frequency')
                             ->label('Frequency')
                             ->options([
                                 'none' => 'None (disabled)',
@@ -56,15 +56,15 @@ class PlanForm
                 Section::make('WhatsApp')
                     ->columns(3)
                     ->schema([
-                        Toggle::make('features.whatsapp.enabled')
+                        Toggle::make('whatsapp_enabled')
                             ->label('Enabled'),
-                        TextInput::make('features.whatsapp.daily_limit')
+                        TextInput::make('whatsapp_daily_limit')
                             ->label('Daily limit')
                             ->numeric()
                             ->integer()
                             ->minValue(0)
                             ->required(),
-                        TextInput::make('features.whatsapp.scheduled_updates')
+                        TextInput::make('whatsapp_scheduled_updates')
                             ->label('Scheduled updates per day')
                             ->numeric()
                             ->integer()
@@ -75,9 +75,9 @@ class PlanForm
                 Section::make('SMS')
                     ->columns(2)
                     ->schema([
-                        Toggle::make('features.sms.enabled')
+                        Toggle::make('sms_enabled')
                             ->label('Enabled'),
-                        TextInput::make('features.sms.daily_limit')
+                        TextInput::make('sms_daily_limit')
                             ->label('Daily limit')
                             ->numeric()
                             ->integer()
@@ -87,11 +87,11 @@ class PlanForm
 
                 Section::make('Features')
                     ->schema([
-                        Toggle::make('features.ai_predictions')
+                        Toggle::make('ai_predictions')
                             ->label('AI predictions'),
-                        Toggle::make('features.price_threshold')
+                        Toggle::make('price_threshold')
                             ->label('Price threshold alerts'),
-                        Toggle::make('features.score_alerts')
+                        Toggle::make('score_alerts')
                             ->label('Score change alerts'),
                     ]),
             ]);

app/Filament/Resources/Plans/Tables/PlansTable.php

@@ -17,16 +17,16 @@ class PlansTable
                     ->label('Tier')
                     ->badge()
                     ->sortable(),
-                TextColumn::make('features.email.frequency')
+                TextColumn::make('email_frequency')
                     ->label('Email')
                     ->placeholder('—'),
-                TextColumn::make('features.sms.daily_limit')
+                TextColumn::make('sms_daily_limit')
                     ->label('SMS/day')
                     ->placeholder('—'),
-                TextColumn::make('features.whatsapp.daily_limit')
+                TextColumn::make('whatsapp_daily_limit')
                     ->label('WhatsApp/day')
                     ->placeholder('—'),
-                TextColumn::make('features.fuel_types.max')
+                TextColumn::make('max_fuel_types')
                     ->label('Fuel types')
                     ->placeholder('Unlimited'),
                 IconColumn::make('active')

app/Filament/Resources/UserResource.php

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ use App\Filament\Resources\UserResource\Pages\EditUser;
 use App\Filament\Resources\UserResource\Pages\ListUsers;
 use App\Models\Plan;
 use App\Models\User;
+use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
 use Filament\Actions\DeleteAction;
 use Filament\Actions\EditAction;
 use Filament\Forms\Components\DateTimePicker;
@@ -75,7 +76,7 @@ class UserResource extends Resource
                     ->live()
                     ->dehydrated(false)
                     ->afterStateHydrated(fn (Select $component, ?User $record) => $component
-                        ->state($record ? Plan::resolveForUser($record)->name : PlanTier::Free->value)),
+                        ->state($record ? PlanFeatures::for($record)->tier() : PlanTier::Free->value)),
                 Select::make('cadence')
                     ->label('Billing Cadence')
                     ->options([
@@ -131,7 +132,7 @@ class UserResource extends Resource
                 TextColumn::make('postcode')->placeholder('—'),
                 TextColumn::make('tier')
                     ->label('Tier')
-                    ->state(fn (User $record): string => Plan::resolveForUser($record)->name)
+                    ->state(fn (User $record): string => PlanFeatures::for($record)->tier())
                     ->badge()
                     ->colors([
                         'gray' => 'free',
@@ -182,7 +183,14 @@ class UserResource extends Resource
             return;
         }
 
-        $priceId = config("services.stripe.prices.{$tier}.{$cadence}") ?? "price_admin_{$tier}_{$cadence}";
+        $priceId = config("services.stripe.prices.{$tier}.{$cadence}") ?: "price_admin_{$tier}_{$cadence}";
+
+        $planColumn = $cadence === 'annual' ? 'stripe_price_id_annual' : 'stripe_price_id_monthly';
+        $plan = Plan::where('name', $tier)->first();
+
+        if ($plan && empty($plan->{$planColumn})) {
+            $plan->update([$planColumn => $priceId]);
+        }
 
         $user->subscriptions()->create([
             'type' => 'default',

app/Http/Controllers/Api/AuthController.php

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ namespace App\Http\Controllers\Api;
 use App\Http\Controllers\Controller;
 use App\Models\Plan;
 use App\Models\User;
+use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
 use Illuminate\Http\JsonResponse;
 use Illuminate\Http\Request;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Auth;
@@ -64,9 +65,23 @@ class AuthController extends Controller
     {
         $user = $request->user();
 
-        return response()->json(array_merge(
-            $user->toArray(),
-            ['tier' => Plan::resolveForUser($user)->name],
-        ));
+        if ($user === null) {
+            return new JsonResponse('null', json: true);
+        }
+
+        $subscription = $user->subscription();
+
+        $expiresAt = $subscription?->ends_at ?? $subscription?->current_period_end;
+
+        return response()->json([
+            'name' => $user->name,
+            'email' => $user->email,
+            'two_factor_confirmed_at' => $user->two_factor_confirmed_at?->toIso8601String(),
+            'tier' => PlanFeatures::for($user)->tier(),
+            'subscription_cancelled' => $subscription?->canceled() ?? false,
+            'subscription_cadence' => Plan::resolveCadenceForUser($user),
+            'subscribed_at' => $subscription?->created_at?->toIso8601String(),
+            'subscription_expires_at' => $expiresAt?->toIso8601String(),
+        ]);
     }
 }

app/Http/Controllers/Api/PredictionController.php

@@ -1,25 +0,0 @@
-<?php
-
-namespace App\Http\Controllers\Api;
-
-use App\Http\Controllers\Controller;
-use App\Http\Requests\Api\PredictionRequest;
-use App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService;
-use Illuminate\Http\JsonResponse;
-
-class PredictionController extends Controller
-{
-    public function __construct(
-        private readonly NationalFuelPredictionService $predictionService,
-    ) {}
-
-    public function index(PredictionRequest $request): JsonResponse
-    {
-        $lat = $request->filled('lat') ? (float) $request->input('lat') : null;
-        $lng = $request->filled('lng') ? (float) $request->input('lng') : null;
-
-        $result = $this->predictionService->predict($lat, $lng);
-
-        return response()->json($result);
-    }
-}

app/Http/Controllers/Api/StationController.php

@@ -2,23 +2,60 @@
 
 namespace App\Http\Controllers\Api;
 
-use App\Enums\PriceReliability;
 use App\Http\Controllers\Controller;
 use App\Http\Requests\Api\NearbyStationsRequest;
 use App\Http\Resources\Api\StationResource;
-use App\Models\Search;
-use App\Models\Station;
 use App\Services\PostcodeService;
-use Illuminate\Database\Query\JoinClause;
+use App\Services\StationSearch\SearchCriteria;
+use App\Services\StationSearch\StationSearchService;
 use Illuminate\Http\JsonResponse;
-use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
 use Illuminate\Validation\ValidationException;
 
 class StationController extends Controller
 {
-    public function __construct(private readonly PostcodeService $postcodeService) {}
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly PostcodeService $postcodeService,
+        private readonly StationSearchService $searchService,
+    ) {}
 
     public function index(NearbyStationsRequest $request): JsonResponse
+    {
+        [$lat, $lng] = $this->resolveCoordinates($request);
+
+        $criteria = new SearchCriteria(
+            lat: $lat,
+            lng: $lng,
+            fuelType: $request->fuelType(),
+            radiusKm: $request->radius(),
+            sort: $request->sort(),
+        );
+
+        $result = $this->searchService->search(
+            $criteria,
+            $request->user(),
+            hash('sha256', $request->ip() ?? ''),
+        );
+
+        return response()->json([
+            'data' => StationResource::collection($result->stations),
+            'meta' => [
+                'count' => $result->stations->count(),
+                'fuel_type' => $criteria->fuelType->value,
+                'radius_km' => $criteria->radiusKm,
+                'lat' => $criteria->lat,
+                'lng' => $criteria->lng,
+                'lowest_pence' => $result->pricesSummary['lowest'],
+                'highest_pence' => $result->pricesSummary['highest'],
+                'cheapest_price_pence' => $result->pricesSummary['lowest'],
+                'avg_pence' => $result->pricesSummary['avg'],
+                'reliability_counts' => $result->reliabilityCounts,
+            ],
+            'prediction' => $result->prediction,
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    /** @return array{0: float, 1: float} */
+    private function resolveCoordinates(NearbyStationsRequest $request): array
     {
         if ($request->filled('postcode')) {
             $location = $this->postcodeService->resolve($request->string('postcode')->toString());
@@ -27,94 +64,9 @@ class StationController extends Controller
                 throw ValidationException::withMessages(['postcode' => 'Postcode not found.']);
             }
 
-            $lat = $location->lat;
-            $lng = $location->lng;
-        } else {
-            $lat = (float) $request->input('lat');
-            $lng = (float) $request->input('lng');
+            return [$location->lat, $location->lng];
         }
-        $fuelType = $request->fuelType();
-        $radius = $request->radius();
-        $sort = $request->sort();
 
-        $all = Station::query()
-            ->selectRaw(
-                'stations.*, spc.price_pence, spc.fuel_type, spc.price_effective_at,
-                (6371 * acos(GREATEST(-1.0, LEAST(1.0,
-                    cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?))
-                    + sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))
-                )))) AS distance_km',
-                [$lat, $lng, $lat],
-            )
-            ->join('station_prices_current as spc', function (JoinClause $join) use ($fuelType): void {
-                $join->on('stations.node_id', '=', 'spc.station_id')
-                    ->where('spc.fuel_type', '=', $fuelType->value);
-            })
-            ->where('stations.temporary_closure', false)
-            ->where('stations.permanent_closure', false)
-            ->get();
-
-        $filtered = $all->filter(fn ($s) => (float) $s->distance_km <= $radius);
-
-        $stations = $sort === 'reliable'
-            ? $filtered
-                ->sort(function ($a, $b) {
-                    $weightA = PriceReliability::fromUpdatedAt(
-                        $a->price_effective_at ? Carbon::parse($a->price_effective_at) : null
-                    )->weight();
-                    $weightB = PriceReliability::fromUpdatedAt(
-                        $b->price_effective_at ? Carbon::parse($b->price_effective_at) : null
-                    )->weight();
-
-                    return $weightA <=> $weightB
-                        ?: ((int) $a->price_pence <=> (int) $b->price_pence)
-                        ?: ((float) $a->distance_km <=> (float) $b->distance_km);
-                })
-                ->values()
-            : $filtered->sortBy(match ($sort) {
-                'price' => fn ($s) => (int) $s->price_pence,
-                'updated' => fn ($s) => $s->price_effective_at ? -strtotime($s->price_effective_at) : PHP_INT_MAX,
-                default => fn ($s) => (float) $s->distance_km,
-            })->values();
-
-        $prices = $stations->pluck('price_pence');
-
-        $reliabilityCounts = $stations
-            ->groupBy(fn ($s) => PriceReliability::fromUpdatedAt(
-                $s->price_effective_at ? Carbon::parse($s->price_effective_at) : null
-            )->value)
-            ->map->count();
-
-        Search::create([
-            'lat_bucket' => round($lat, 2),
-            'lng_bucket' => round($lng, 2),
-            'fuel_type' => $fuelType->value,
-            'results_count' => $stations->count(),
-            'lowest_pence' => $prices->min(),
-            'highest_pence' => $prices->max(),
-            'avg_pence' => $prices->isNotEmpty() ? round($prices->avg(), 2) : null,
-            'searched_at' => now(),
-            'ip_hash' => hash('sha256', $request->ip() ?? ''),
-        ]);
-
-        return response()->json([
-            'data' => StationResource::collection($stations),
-            'meta' => [
-                'count' => $stations->count(),
-                'fuel_type' => $fuelType->value,
-                'radius_km' => $radius,
-                'lat' => $lat,
-                'lng' => $lng,
-                'lowest_pence' => $prices->min(),
-                'highest_pence' => $prices->max(),
-                'cheapest_price_pence' => $prices->min(),
-                'avg_pence' => $prices->isNotEmpty() ? round($prices->avg(), 2) : null,
-                'reliability_counts' => [
-                    'reliable' => (int) $reliabilityCounts->get(PriceReliability::Reliable->value, 0),
-                    'stale' => (int) $reliabilityCounts->get(PriceReliability::Stale->value, 0),
-                    'outdated' => (int) $reliabilityCounts->get(PriceReliability::Outdated->value, 0),
-                ],
-            ],
-        ]);
+        return [(float) $request->input('lat'), (float) $request->input('lng')];
     }
 }

app/Http/Controllers/BillingController.php

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ namespace App\Http\Controllers;
 use App\Enums\PlanTier;
 use Illuminate\Http\RedirectResponse;
 use Illuminate\Http\Request;
+use Laravel\Cashier\Checkout;
 use Symfony\Component\HttpFoundation\Response;
 
 class BillingController extends Controller
@@ -12,7 +13,7 @@ class BillingController extends Controller
     /**
      * Redirect the user to a Stripe Checkout session for the requested plan + cadence.
      */
-    public function checkout(Request $request, string $tier, string $cadence): Response|RedirectResponse
+    public function checkout(Request $request, string $tier, string $cadence): Response|RedirectResponse|Checkout
     {
         abort_unless(in_array($tier, [PlanTier::Basic->value, PlanTier::Plus->value, PlanTier::Pro->value], true), 404);
         abort_unless(in_array($cadence, ['monthly', 'annual'], true), 404);

app/Http/Requests/Api/PredictionRequest.php

@@ -1,21 +0,0 @@
-<?php
-
-namespace App\Http\Requests\Api;
-
-use Illuminate\Foundation\Http\FormRequest;
-
-class PredictionRequest extends FormRequest
-{
-    public function authorize(): bool
-    {
-        return true;
-    }
-
-    public function rules(): array
-    {
-        return [
-            'lat' => ['nullable', 'numeric', 'between:-90,90'],
-            'lng' => ['nullable', 'numeric', 'between:-180,180'],
-        ];
-    }
-}

app/Http/Resources/Api/StationResource.php

@@ -12,8 +12,13 @@ class StationResource extends JsonResource
 {
     public function toArray(Request $request): array
     {
-        $updatedAt = $this->price_effective_at ? Carbon::parse($this->price_effective_at) : null;
-        $reliability = PriceReliability::fromUpdatedAt($updatedAt);
+        // The controller pre-computes _updated_at / _reliability / _classification
+        // per row. Falling back to fresh computation keeps the resource usable
+        // outside that path (e.g. tests or future callers).
+        $updatedAt = $this->_updated_at
+            ?? ($this->price_effective_at ? Carbon::parse($this->price_effective_at) : null);
+        $reliability = $this->_reliability ?? PriceReliability::fromUpdatedAt($updatedAt);
+        $classification = $this->_classification ?? PriceClassification::fromUpdatedAt($updatedAt);
 
         return [
             'station_id' => $this->node_id,
@@ -32,11 +37,9 @@ class StationResource extends JsonResource
             'open_today' => $this->openTodayPayload(),
             'price_pence' => (int) $this->price_pence,
             'price' => round((int) $this->price_pence / 100, 2),
-            'price_updated_at' => $this->price_effective_at
-                ? Carbon::parse($this->price_effective_at)->toISOString()
-                : null,
-            'price_classification' => PriceClassification::fromUpdatedAt($updatedAt)->value,
-            'price_classification_label' => PriceClassification::fromUpdatedAt($updatedAt)->label(),
+            'price_updated_at' => $updatedAt?->toISOString(),
+            'price_classification' => $classification->value,
+            'price_classification_label' => $classification->label(),
             'reliability' => $reliability->value,
             'reliability_label' => $reliability->label(),
         ];

app/Jobs/DispatchUserNotificationJob.php

@@ -5,15 +5,15 @@ namespace App\Jobs;
 use App\Models\NotificationLog;
 use App\Models\User;
 use App\Models\UserNotificationPreference;
+use App\Notifications\FuelPriceAlert;
 use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
 use Illuminate\Contracts\Queue\ShouldQueue;
 use Illuminate\Foundation\Queue\Queueable;
 
 /**
- * Resolves allowed notification channels for a user and trigger, sends
- * notifications, and logs every outcome (sent, daily_limit, tier_restricted).
- *
- * Actual sending is stubbed until FuelPriceAlert notification class exists.
+ * Resolves allowed notification channels for a user and trigger, dispatches
+ * the FuelPriceAlert notification (which fans out to email + push + WhatsApp +
+ * SMS), and logs every outcome (sent, daily_limit, tier_restricted).
  */
 final class DispatchUserNotificationJob implements ShouldQueue
 {
@@ -38,9 +38,21 @@ final class DispatchUserNotificationJob implements ShouldQueue
         // Step 3: channels that pass tier + user-pref + daily-limit checks
         $allowed = $features->channelsFor($this->triggerType);
 
-        // Step 4: send and log sent notifications
+        // Step 4: dispatch the multi-channel notification — Laravel fans out
+        // to mail / OneSignal / Vonage WhatsApp / Vonage SMS based on via().
+        if ($allowed !== []) {
+            $this->user->notify(new FuelPriceAlert(
+                $this->triggerType,
+                $this->fuelType,
+                $this->price,
+                $allowed,
+            ));
+        }
+
+        // Step 5: log a sent entry per allowed channel. The notify() call
+        // above queues per-channel sends; per-channel HTTP outcomes are
+        // captured in api_logs by the channel adapters themselves.
         foreach ($allowed as $channel) {
-            // TODO: $this->user->notify(new FuelPriceAlert($this->triggerType, $this->fuelType, $this->price));
             $this->log($channel, sent: true);
         }
 

app/Jobs/PollFuelPricesJob.php

@@ -2,16 +2,26 @@
 
 namespace App\Jobs;
 
+use App\Events\PricesUpdatedEvent;
+use App\Services\FuelPriceService;
 use Illuminate\Contracts\Queue\ShouldQueue;
 use Illuminate\Foundation\Queue\Queueable;
-use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Artisan;
 
+/**
+ * Background full station refresh + price poll, dispatched from the admin
+ * "Trigger Full Poll" button. Mirrors the `fuel:poll --full` command but
+ * calls the service directly so typed exceptions surface to the queue's
+ * failed-job handler instead of being swallowed by Artisan output buffering.
+ */
 class PollFuelPricesJob implements ShouldQueue
 {
     use Queueable;
 
-    public function handle(): void
+    public function handle(FuelPriceService $service): void
     {
-        Artisan::call('fuel:poll', ['--full' => true]);
+        $service->refreshStations();
+        $inserted = $service->pollPrices();
+
+        PricesUpdatedEvent::dispatch($inserted, true);
     }
 }

app/Jobs/SendPaymentFailedReminderJob.php

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Jobs;
+
+use App\Mail\PaymentFailedDay3Reminder;
+use App\Mail\PaymentFailedDay5Reminder;
+use App\Models\User;
+use Illuminate\Contracts\Queue\ShouldQueue;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Queue\Queueable;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Mail;
+use InvalidArgumentException;
+
+final class SendPaymentFailedReminderJob implements ShouldQueue
+{
+    use Queueable;
+
+    public function __construct(
+        public readonly int $userId,
+        public readonly int $day,
+    ) {
+        $this->onQueue('notifications');
+    }
+
+    public function handle(): void
+    {
+        $user = User::find($this->userId);
+
+        if ($user === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        if ($user->grace_period_until === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $mailable = match ($this->day) {
+            3 => new PaymentFailedDay3Reminder($user),
+            5 => new PaymentFailedDay5Reminder($user),
+            default => throw new InvalidArgumentException("Unsupported reminder day: {$this->day}"),
+        };
+
+        Mail::to($user->email)->send($mailable);
+    }
+}

app/Jobs/SendScheduledWhatsAppJob.php

@@ -2,16 +2,18 @@
 
 namespace App\Jobs;
 
-use App\Models\Plan;
 use App\Models\User;
 use App\Models\UserNotificationPreference;
 use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
 use Illuminate\Contracts\Queue\ShouldQueue;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Collection;
 use Illuminate\Foundation\Queue\Queueable;
 
 /**
  * Fan-out job for scheduled WhatsApp updates (morning / evening).
- * Finds all eligible users and dispatches DispatchUserNotificationJob per user.
+ * Dispatches one DispatchUserNotificationJob per eligible user so each
+ * user's send is its own queueable unit (independent retry, no shared
+ * failure mode across the cohort).
  *
  * Scheduled at 07:30 (morning) and 18:00 (evening) via routes/console.php.
  */
@@ -28,37 +30,24 @@ final class SendScheduledWhatsAppJob implements ShouldQueue
     {
         $triggerType = $this->period === 'morning' ? 'scheduled_morning' : 'scheduled_evening';
 
-        // Plans that allow scheduled WhatsApp updates
-        $eligiblePlanNames = Plan::where('active', true)
-            ->get()
-            ->filter(fn (Plan $plan): bool => ($plan->features['whatsapp']['scheduled_updates'] ?? 0) > 0)
-            ->pluck('name')
-            ->all();
-
-        if (empty($eligiblePlanNames)) {
-            return;
-        }
-
-        // Users who have whatsapp preference enabled
+        // Candidates: users who have explicitly opted in to WhatsApp.
+        // Per-user tier + daily-limit + scheduled-updates checks happen via
+        // canSendNow('whatsapp'); that single call covers tier eligibility
+        // (canUseChannel) AND today's notification_log count.
         $userIds = UserNotificationPreference::where('channel', 'whatsapp')
             ->where('enabled', true)
             ->distinct()
             ->pluck('user_id');
 
         User::whereIn('id', $userIds)
-            ->each(function (User $user) use ($triggerType, $eligiblePlanNames): void {
-                $features = PlanFeatures::for($user);
+            ->chunkById(500, function (Collection $users) use ($triggerType): void {
+                foreach ($users as $user) {
+                    if (! PlanFeatures::for($user)->canSendNow('whatsapp')) {
+                        continue;
+                    }
 
-                // Skip if their tier isn't eligible or daily limit is hit
-                if (! in_array($features->tier(), $eligiblePlanNames, strict: true)) {
-                    return;
+                    DispatchUserNotificationJob::dispatch($user, $triggerType, fuelType: 'all');
                 }
-
-                if (! $features->canSendNow('whatsapp')) {
-                    return;
-                }
-
-                DispatchUserNotificationJob::dispatch($user, $triggerType, fuelType: 'all');
             });
     }
 }

app/Listeners/DowngradeUserOnSubscriptionDeleted.php

@@ -1,37 +0,0 @@
-<?php
-
-namespace App\Listeners;
-
-use App\Models\User;
-use App\Models\UserNotificationPreference;
-use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Cache;
-use Laravel\Cashier\Events\WebhookReceived;
-
-class DowngradeUserOnSubscriptionDeleted
-{
-    public function handle(WebhookReceived $event): void
-    {
-        if (($event->payload['type'] ?? null) !== 'customer.subscription.deleted') {
-            return;
-        }
-
-        $stripeCustomerId = $event->payload['data']['object']['customer'] ?? null;
-
-        if (! $stripeCustomerId) {
-            return;
-        }
-
-        $user = User::where('stripe_id', $stripeCustomerId)->first();
-
-        if (! $user) {
-            return;
-        }
-
-        UserNotificationPreference::query()
-            ->where('user_id', $user->id)
-            ->whereIn('channel', ['whatsapp', 'sms'])
-            ->update(['enabled' => false]);
-
-        Cache::tags(['plans'])->forget("plan_for_user_{$user->id}");
-    }
-}

app/Listeners/HandleStripeWebhook.php

@@ -0,0 +1,136 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Listeners;
+
+use App\Jobs\SendPaymentFailedReminderJob;
+use App\Models\Subscription;
+use App\Models\User;
+use App\Models\UserNotificationPreference;
+use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Cache;
+use Laravel\Cashier\Events\WebhookReceived;
+
+final class HandleStripeWebhook
+{
+    public function handle(WebhookReceived $event): void
+    {
+        $type = $event->payload['type'] ?? null;
+        $stripeCustomerId = $event->payload['data']['object']['customer'] ?? null;
+
+        if ($stripeCustomerId === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $user = User::where('stripe_id', $stripeCustomerId)->first();
+
+        if ($user === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        match ($type) {
+            'customer.subscription.created',
+            'customer.subscription.updated' => $this->handleSubscriptionUpserted($user, $event->payload['data']['object'] ?? []),
+            'customer.subscription.deleted' => $this->handleSubscriptionDeleted($user, $event->payload['data']['object'] ?? []),
+            'invoice.payment_succeeded' => $this->handlePaymentSucceeded($user),
+            'invoice.payment_failed' => $this->handlePaymentFailed($user),
+            default => null,
+        };
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @param  array<string, mixed>  $stripeSubscription
+     */
+    private function handleSubscriptionUpserted(User $user, array $stripeSubscription): void
+    {
+        $this->syncPeriodFromStripePayload($stripeSubscription);
+        $this->bustPlanCache($user);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @param  array<string, mixed>  $stripeSubscription
+     */
+    private function handleSubscriptionDeleted(User $user, array $stripeSubscription): void
+    {
+        UserNotificationPreference::query()
+            ->where('user_id', $user->id)
+            ->whereIn('channel', ['whatsapp', 'sms'])
+            ->update(['enabled' => false]);
+
+        $user->forceFill(['grace_period_until' => null])->save();
+
+        $this->syncPeriodFromStripePayload($stripeSubscription);
+        $this->bustPlanCache($user);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Mirror current_period_start / current_period_end from a Stripe subscription
+     * payload onto our local row so we don't depend on Stripe at read time.
+     *
+     * Stripe API ≤ 2024-11-19 places the period fields at the root of the
+     * subscription; later versions move them to items.data[0]. We accept either.
+     *
+     * @param  array<string, mixed>  $stripeSubscription
+     */
+    private function syncPeriodFromStripePayload(array $stripeSubscription): void
+    {
+        $stripeId = $stripeSubscription['id'] ?? null;
+
+        if ($stripeId === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $subscription = Subscription::where('stripe_id', $stripeId)->first();
+
+        if ($subscription === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $start = $stripeSubscription['current_period_start']
+            ?? ($stripeSubscription['items']['data'][0]['current_period_start'] ?? null);
+
+        $end = $stripeSubscription['current_period_end']
+            ?? ($stripeSubscription['items']['data'][0]['current_period_end'] ?? null);
+
+        $subscription->stripe_data = $stripeSubscription;
+
+        if ($start !== null) {
+            $subscription->current_period_start = Carbon::createFromTimestamp($start);
+        }
+
+        if ($end !== null) {
+            $subscription->current_period_end = Carbon::createFromTimestamp($end);
+        }
+
+        $subscription->save();
+    }
+
+    private function handlePaymentSucceeded(User $user): void
+    {
+        $user->forceFill(['grace_period_until' => null])->save();
+        $this->bustPlanCache($user);
+    }
+
+    private function handlePaymentFailed(User $user): void
+    {
+        // Idempotency: only the first failed-payment event in a grace window
+        // transitions state + dispatches reminders. Stripe may fire this event
+        // multiple times per billing cycle (once per failed retry attempt).
+        if ($user->grace_period_until !== null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $user->forceFill(['grace_period_until' => Carbon::now()->addDays(5)])->save();
+
+        SendPaymentFailedReminderJob::dispatch($user->id, 3)->delay(Carbon::now()->addDays(3));
+        SendPaymentFailedReminderJob::dispatch($user->id, 5)->delay(Carbon::now()->addDays(5));
+
+        $this->bustPlanCache($user);
+    }
+
+    private function bustPlanCache(User $user): void
+    {
+        $tag = Cache::tags(['plans']);
+        $tag->forget("plan_for_user_{$user->id}");
+        $tag->forget("plan_cadence_for_user_{$user->id}");
+    }
+}

app/Mail/PaymentFailedDay3Reminder.php

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Mail;
+
+use App\Models\User;
+use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
+use Illuminate\Mail\Mailable;
+use Illuminate\Mail\Mailables\Content;
+use Illuminate\Mail\Mailables\Envelope;
+
+final class PaymentFailedDay3Reminder extends Mailable
+{
+    public function __construct(public readonly User $user) {}
+
+    public function envelope(): Envelope
+    {
+        return new Envelope(
+            subject: 'Heads up — your FuelAlert payment is retrying',
+        );
+    }
+
+    public function content(): Content
+    {
+        return new Content(
+            markdown: 'emails.payment-failed-day-3',
+            with: [
+                'name' => $this->user->name,
+                'tier' => PlanFeatures::for($this->user)->tier(),
+                'portalUrl' => route('billing.portal'),
+            ],
+        );
+    }
+}

app/Mail/PaymentFailedDay5Reminder.php

@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Mail;
+
+use App\Models\User;
+use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
+use Illuminate\Mail\Mailable;
+use Illuminate\Mail\Mailables\Content;
+use Illuminate\Mail\Mailables\Envelope;
+
+final class PaymentFailedDay5Reminder extends Mailable
+{
+    public function __construct(public readonly User $user) {}
+
+    public function envelope(): Envelope
+    {
+        $tier = PlanFeatures::for($this->user)->tier();
+
+        return new Envelope(
+            subject: 'Last chance — your '.ucfirst($tier).' features end tomorrow',
+        );
+    }
+
+    public function content(): Content
+    {
+        return new Content(
+            markdown: 'emails.payment-failed-day-5',
+            with: [
+                'name' => $this->user->name,
+                'tier' => PlanFeatures::for($this->user)->tier(),
+                'portalUrl' => route('billing.portal'),
+            ],
+        );
+    }
+}

app/Models/Outcode.php

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Models;
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Fillable;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
+
+#[Fillable(['outcode', 'lat', 'lng'])]
+class Outcode extends Model
+{
+    public $timestamps = false;
+
+    protected $primaryKey = 'outcode';
+
+    public $incrementing = false;
+
+    protected $keyType = 'string';
+
+    protected function casts(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'lat' => 'float',
+            'lng' => 'float',
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Models/Plan.php

@@ -17,7 +17,19 @@ class Plan extends Model
         'name',
         'stripe_price_id_monthly',
         'stripe_price_id_annual',
-        'features',
+        'max_fuel_types',
+        'email_enabled',
+        'email_frequency',
+        'push_enabled',
+        'push_frequency',
+        'whatsapp_enabled',
+        'whatsapp_daily_limit',
+        'whatsapp_scheduled_updates',
+        'sms_enabled',
+        'sms_daily_limit',
+        'ai_predictions',
+        'price_threshold',
+        'score_alerts',
         'active',
     ];
 
@@ -56,28 +68,50 @@ class Plan extends Model
             }
         );
 
-        if ($planId !== null) {
-            $plan = static::find($planId);
+        return static::findOrFail($planId);
+    }
 
-            if ($plan !== null) {
-                return $plan;
+    /**
+     * Resolve the active subscription cadence for a user.
+     * Returns 'monthly' | 'annual', or null if the user has no paid subscription.
+     */
+    public static function resolveCadenceForUser(User $user): ?string
+    {
+        $cache = Cache::supportsTags() ? Cache::tags(['plans']) : Cache::store();
+
+        return $cache->remember(
+            "plan_cadence_for_user_{$user->id}",
+            3600,
+            function () use ($user): ?string {
+                if (! method_exists($user, 'subscriptions')) {
+                    return null;
+                }
+
+                $priceId = $user->subscriptions()->active()->value('stripe_price');
+
+                if ($priceId === null) {
+                    return null;
+                }
+
+                $plan = static::where('stripe_price_id_monthly', $priceId)
+                    ->orWhere('stripe_price_id_annual', $priceId)
+                    ->first();
+
+                if ($plan === null) {
+                    return null;
+                }
+
+                if ($plan->stripe_price_id_monthly === $priceId) {
+                    return 'monthly';
+                }
+
+                if ($plan->stripe_price_id_annual === $priceId) {
+                    return 'annual';
+                }
+
+                return null;
             }
-        }
-
-        // Fallback for tests / partially-seeded environments: return a free-tier stub.
-        return new self([
-            'name' => PlanTier::Free->value,
-            'features' => [
-                'fuel_types' => ['max' => 1],
-                'email' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'weekly_digest'],
-                'push' => ['enabled' => false, 'frequency' => 'none'],
-                'whatsapp' => ['enabled' => false, 'daily_limit' => 0, 'scheduled_updates' => 0],
-                'sms' => ['enabled' => false, 'daily_limit' => 0],
-                'ai_predictions' => false,
-                'price_threshold' => false,
-                'score_alerts' => false,
-            ],
-        ]);
+        );
     }
 
     protected static function booted(): void
@@ -92,7 +126,17 @@ class Plan extends Model
     protected function casts(): array
     {
         return [
-            'features' => 'array',
+            'max_fuel_types' => 'integer',
+            'email_enabled' => 'boolean',
+            'push_enabled' => 'boolean',
+            'whatsapp_enabled' => 'boolean',
+            'whatsapp_daily_limit' => 'integer',
+            'whatsapp_scheduled_updates' => 'integer',
+            'sms_enabled' => 'boolean',
+            'sms_daily_limit' => 'integer',
+            'ai_predictions' => 'boolean',
+            'price_threshold' => 'boolean',
+            'score_alerts' => 'boolean',
             'active' => 'boolean',
         ];
     }

app/Models/Postcode.php

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Models;
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Fillable;
+use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
+
+#[Fillable(['postcode', 'outcode', 'lat', 'lng'])]
+class Postcode extends Model
+{
+    public $timestamps = false;
+
+    protected $primaryKey = 'postcode';
+
+    public $incrementing = false;
+
+    protected $keyType = 'string';
+
+    protected function casts(): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'lat' => 'float',
+            'lng' => 'float',
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Models/PricePrediction.php

@@ -9,7 +9,6 @@ use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Attributes\Fillable;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Builder;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\HasFactory;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Model;
-use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
 
 #[Fillable(['predicted_for', 'source', 'direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning', 'generated_at'])]
 class PricePrediction extends Model
@@ -39,11 +38,17 @@ class PricePrediction extends Model
      */
     public function scopeBestFirst(Builder $query): Builder
     {
-        $priority = implode(', ', array_map(
-            fn (string $v) => "'$v'",
-            [PredictionSource::LlmWithContext->value, PredictionSource::Llm->value, PredictionSource::Ewma->value],
-        ));
+        $priority = [
+            PredictionSource::LlmWithContext->value,
+            PredictionSource::Llm->value,
+            PredictionSource::Ewma->value,
+        ];
 
-        return $query->orderByRaw("FIELD(source, $priority)");
+        $cases = '';
+        foreach ($priority as $rank => $source) {
+            $cases .= " WHEN '$source' THEN $rank";
+        }
+
+        return $query->orderByRaw("CASE source$cases ELSE ".count($priority).' END');
     }
 }

app/Models/StationPriceArchive.php

@@ -10,15 +10,17 @@ use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Relations\BelongsTo;
 #[Fillable(['station_id', 'fuel_type', 'price_pence', 'price_effective_at', 'price_reported_at', 'recorded_at'])]
 class StationPriceArchive extends Model
 {
+    protected $table = 'station_prices_archive';
+
     public $timestamps = false;
 
     protected function casts(): array
     {
         return [
-            'fuel_type'          => FuelType::class,
+            'fuel_type' => FuelType::class,
             'price_effective_at' => 'datetime',
-            'price_reported_at'  => 'datetime',
-            'recorded_at'        => 'datetime',
+            'price_reported_at' => 'datetime',
+            'recorded_at' => 'datetime',
         ];
     }
 

app/Models/StationPriceCurrent.php

@@ -19,7 +19,9 @@ class StationPriceCurrent extends Model
 
     public $timestamps = false;
 
-    protected $primaryKey = null;
+    protected $primaryKey = 'station_id';
+
+    protected $keyType = 'string';
 
     public $incrementing = false;
 

app/Models/Subscription.php

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Models;
+
+use Laravel\Cashier\Subscription as CashierSubscription;
+
+class Subscription extends CashierSubscription
+{
+    protected $casts = [
+        'ends_at' => 'datetime',
+        'quantity' => 'integer',
+        'trial_ends_at' => 'datetime',
+        'current_period_start' => 'datetime',
+        'current_period_end' => 'datetime',
+        'stripe_data' => 'array',
+    ];
+}

app/Models/User.php

@@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ use Laravel\Cashier\Billable;
 use Laravel\Fortify\TwoFactorAuthenticatable;
 use Laravel\Sanctum\HasApiTokens;
 
-#[Fillable(['name', 'email', 'email_verified_at', 'password', 'is_admin', 'postcode', 'preferred_fuel_type'])]
+#[Fillable(['name', 'email', 'email_verified_at', 'password', 'is_admin', 'postcode', 'preferred_fuel_type', 'grace_period_until'])]
 #[Hidden(['password', 'two_factor_secret', 'two_factor_recovery_codes', 'remember_token'])]
 class User extends Authenticatable implements FilamentUser
 {
@@ -35,6 +35,7 @@ class User extends Authenticatable implements FilamentUser
             'email_verified_at' => 'datetime',
             'password' => 'hashed',
             'is_admin' => 'boolean',
+            'grace_period_until' => 'datetime',
         ];
     }
 

app/Models/UserNotificationPreference.php

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@
 
 namespace App\Models;
 
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
 use Database\Factories\UserNotificationPreferenceFactory;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Builder;
 use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\HasFactory;
@@ -44,6 +45,7 @@ class UserNotificationPreference extends Model
     {
         return [
             'enabled' => 'boolean',
+            'fuel_type' => FuelType::class,
         ];
     }
 }

app/Notifications/Channels/OneSignalChannel.php

@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Notifications\Channels;
+
+use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use Illuminate\Notifications\Notification;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
+use Throwable;
+
+/**
+ * Sends push notifications via the OneSignal REST API.
+ *
+ * Notifications targeting this channel must implement `toOneSignal($notifiable)`
+ * returning ['heading' => string, 'message' => string] (or `null` to skip).
+ *
+ * No-ops when ONESIGNAL_APP_ID/API_KEY are unset, when the notifiable user has
+ * no `push_token`, or when toOneSignal() returns null. Each call is logged to
+ * api_logs through ApiLogger.
+ */
+final class OneSignalChannel
+{
+    public const string NAME = 'onesignal';
+
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
+    ) {}
+
+    public function send(mixed $notifiable, Notification $notification): void
+    {
+        $appId = config('services.onesignal.app_id');
+        $apiKey = config('services.onesignal.api_key');
+
+        if ($appId === null || $apiKey === null) {
+            Log::info('OneSignalChannel: skipped — credentials not configured');
+
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $playerId = $notifiable->push_token ?? null;
+
+        if ($playerId === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $payload = method_exists($notification, 'toOneSignal')
+            ? $notification->toOneSignal($notifiable)
+            : null;
+
+        if ($payload === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $url = 'https://api.onesignal.com/notifications';
+
+        try {
+            $this->apiLogger->send(self::NAME, 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(10)
+                ->withToken($apiKey)
+                ->acceptJson()
+                ->post($url, [
+                    'app_id' => $appId,
+                    'include_player_ids' => [$playerId],
+                    'headings' => ['en' => $payload['heading'] ?? 'Fuel Alert'],
+                    'contents' => ['en' => $payload['message'] ?? ''],
+                ]));
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            Log::error('OneSignalChannel: send failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+        }
+    }
+}

app/Notifications/Channels/VonageSmsChannel.php

@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Notifications\Channels;
+
+use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use Illuminate\Notifications\Notification;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
+use Throwable;
+
+/**
+ * Sends SMS messages via the Vonage SMS API (raw HTTP — no SDK).
+ *
+ * Notifications targeting this channel must implement `toVonageSms($notifiable)`
+ * returning a string body (or `null` to skip).
+ *
+ * No-ops when VONAGE_KEY/SECRET are unset or when the notifiable user has no
+ * phone number on `whatsapp_number` (the same verified column doubles as SMS
+ * destination).
+ */
+final class VonageSmsChannel
+{
+    public const string NAME = 'vonage-sms';
+
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
+    ) {}
+
+    public function send(mixed $notifiable, Notification $notification): void
+    {
+        $key = config('services.vonage.key');
+        $secret = config('services.vonage.secret');
+        $from = config('services.vonage.sms_from', 'FuelAlert');
+
+        if ($key === null || $secret === null) {
+            Log::info('VonageSmsChannel: skipped — credentials not configured');
+
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $to = $notifiable->whatsapp_number ?? null;
+
+        if ($to === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $body = method_exists($notification, 'toVonageSms')
+            ? $notification->toVonageSms($notifiable)
+            : null;
+
+        if ($body === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $url = 'https://rest.nexmo.com/sms/json';
+
+        try {
+            $this->apiLogger->send(self::NAME, 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(10)
+                ->asForm()
+                ->post($url, [
+                    'api_key' => $key,
+                    'api_secret' => $secret,
+                    'from' => $from,
+                    'to' => ltrim($to, '+'),
+                    'text' => $body,
+                ]));
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            Log::error('VonageSmsChannel: send failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+        }
+    }
+}

app/Notifications/Channels/VonageWhatsAppChannel.php

@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Notifications\Channels;
+
+use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use Illuminate\Notifications\Notification;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
+use Throwable;
+
+/**
+ * Sends WhatsApp messages via the Vonage Messages API (raw HTTP — no SDK).
+ *
+ * Notifications targeting this channel must implement `toVonageWhatsApp($notifiable)`
+ * returning a string body (or `null` to skip).
+ *
+ * No-ops when VONAGE_KEY/SECRET/whatsapp_from are unset, when the user is not
+ * verified (no whatsapp_verified_at), when whatsapp_number is missing, or when
+ * the notification returns null.
+ */
+final class VonageWhatsAppChannel
+{
+    public const string NAME = 'vonage-whatsapp';
+
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
+    ) {}
+
+    public function send(mixed $notifiable, Notification $notification): void
+    {
+        $key = config('services.vonage.key');
+        $secret = config('services.vonage.secret');
+        $from = config('services.vonage.whatsapp_from');
+
+        if ($key === null || $secret === null || $from === null) {
+            Log::info('VonageWhatsAppChannel: skipped — credentials not configured');
+
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $to = $notifiable->whatsapp_number ?? null;
+        $verified = $notifiable->whatsapp_verified_at ?? null;
+
+        if ($to === null || $verified === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $body = method_exists($notification, 'toVonageWhatsApp')
+            ? $notification->toVonageWhatsApp($notifiable)
+            : null;
+
+        if ($body === null) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        $url = 'https://api.nexmo.com/v1/messages';
+
+        try {
+            $this->apiLogger->send(self::NAME, 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(10)
+                ->withBasicAuth($key, $secret)
+                ->acceptJson()
+                ->post($url, [
+                    'message_type' => 'text',
+                    'channel' => 'whatsapp',
+                    'from' => $from,
+                    'to' => $to,
+                    'text' => $body,
+                ]));
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            Log::error('VonageWhatsAppChannel: send failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+        }
+    }
+}

app/Notifications/FuelPriceAlert.php

@@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Notifications;
+
+use App\Notifications\Channels\OneSignalChannel;
+use App\Notifications\Channels\VonageSmsChannel;
+use App\Notifications\Channels\VonageWhatsAppChannel;
+use Illuminate\Bus\Queueable;
+use Illuminate\Contracts\Queue\ShouldQueue;
+use Illuminate\Notifications\Messages\MailMessage;
+use Illuminate\Notifications\Notification;
+
+/**
+ * Multi-channel fuel price alert. The dispatching job already filters channels
+ * by tier, user preference, and daily limit — `via()` returns exactly that
+ * filtered set. The notification is queued so individual channel sends don't
+ * block the dispatch job.
+ *
+ * Channel keys map to:
+ *   'email'    → mail (Laravel built-in)
+ *   'push'     → OneSignalChannel
+ *   'whatsapp' → VonageWhatsAppChannel
+ *   'sms'      → VonageSmsChannel
+ */
+final class FuelPriceAlert extends Notification implements ShouldQueue
+{
+    use Queueable;
+
+    /** @var array<string, class-string> */
+    private const array CHANNEL_MAP = [
+        'email' => 'mail',
+        'push' => OneSignalChannel::class,
+        'whatsapp' => VonageWhatsAppChannel::class,
+        'sms' => VonageSmsChannel::class,
+    ];
+
+    /** @param  string[]  $channels  Pre-filtered channel keys ('email', 'push', 'whatsapp', 'sms') */
+    public function __construct(
+        public readonly string $triggerType,
+        public readonly string $fuelType,
+        public readonly ?float $price,
+        public readonly array $channels,
+    ) {
+        $this->onQueue('notifications');
+    }
+
+    /** @return array<int, string> */
+    public function via(mixed $notifiable): array
+    {
+        return array_values(array_map(
+            fn (string $key) => self::CHANNEL_MAP[$key] ?? $key,
+            $this->channels,
+        ));
+    }
+
+    public function toMail(mixed $notifiable): MailMessage
+    {
+        return (new MailMessage)
+            ->subject($this->headline())
+            ->greeting("Hi {$notifiable->name},")
+            ->line($this->body())
+            ->action('Open FuelAlert', route('dashboard'))
+            ->line('You can change which alerts you receive in your account settings.');
+    }
+
+    /** @return array{heading: string, message: string} */
+    public function toOneSignal(mixed $notifiable): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'heading' => $this->headline(),
+            'message' => $this->body(),
+        ];
+    }
+
+    public function toVonageWhatsApp(mixed $notifiable): string
+    {
+        return $this->shortBody();
+    }
+
+    public function toVonageSms(mixed $notifiable): string
+    {
+        return $this->shortBody();
+    }
+
+    private function headline(): string
+    {
+        return match ($this->triggerType) {
+            'price_threshold' => 'Price hit your threshold',
+            'score_change' => 'Fill-up signal changed',
+            'scheduled_morning' => 'Morning fuel update',
+            'scheduled_evening' => 'Evening fuel update',
+            default => 'Fuel alert',
+        };
+    }
+
+    private function body(): string
+    {
+        $fuel = strtoupper($this->fuelType);
+        $price = $this->price !== null ? number_format($this->price, 1).'p' : null;
+
+        return match ($this->triggerType) {
+            'price_threshold' => $price !== null
+                ? "{$fuel} dropped to {$price} near you."
+                : "{$fuel} hit your alert threshold.",
+            'score_change' => "The {$fuel} fill-up score has changed near you.",
+            'scheduled_morning', 'scheduled_evening' => "Latest {$fuel} update is ready in your dashboard.",
+            default => "There's a new {$fuel} alert for you.",
+        };
+    }
+
+    /** SMS/WhatsApp must stay short — single line, ~160 chars max. */
+    private function shortBody(): string
+    {
+        return $this->headline().': '.$this->body();
+    }
+}

app/Providers/AppServiceProvider.php

@@ -2,7 +2,8 @@
 
 namespace App\Providers;
 
-use App\Listeners\DowngradeUserOnSubscriptionDeleted;
+use App\Listeners\HandleStripeWebhook;
+use App\Models\Subscription;
 use App\Services\ApiLogger;
 use App\Services\LlmPrediction\AnthropicPredictionProvider;
 use App\Services\LlmPrediction\GeminiPredictionProvider;
@@ -14,6 +15,7 @@ use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Event;
 use Illuminate\Support\ServiceProvider;
 use Illuminate\Validation\Rules\Password;
+use Laravel\Cashier\Cashier;
 use Laravel\Cashier\Events\WebhookReceived;
 
 class AppServiceProvider extends ServiceProvider
@@ -41,7 +43,9 @@ class AppServiceProvider extends ServiceProvider
     {
         $this->configureDefaults();
 
-        Event::listen(WebhookReceived::class, DowngradeUserOnSubscriptionDeleted::class);
+        Cashier::useSubscriptionModel(Subscription::class);
+
+        Event::listen(WebhookReceived::class, HandleStripeWebhook::class);
     }
 
     /**
@@ -55,13 +59,6 @@ class AppServiceProvider extends ServiceProvider
             app()->isProduction(),
         );
 
-        // SQLite lacks GREATEST/LEAST scalar functions — register them for tests.
-        if (DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite') {
-            $pdo = DB::connection()->getPdo();
-            $pdo->sqliteCreateFunction('GREATEST', fn (...$args) => max($args), -1);
-            $pdo->sqliteCreateFunction('LEAST', fn (...$args) => min($args), -1);
-        }
-
         Password::defaults(fn (): ?Password => app()->isProduction()
             ? Password::min(12)
                 ->mixedCase()

app/Services/BrentPricePredictor.php

@@ -12,8 +12,6 @@ use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
 
 final class BrentPricePredictor
 {
-    private const float EWMA_ALPHA = 0.3;
-
     private const float EWMA_THRESHOLD_PCT = 1.5;
 
     private const int EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 65;
@@ -33,8 +31,10 @@ final class BrentPricePredictor
     }
 
     /**
-     * Generate EWMA + LLM predictions, store them, and flag the latest
-     * brent_prices row as having a prediction generated.
+     * Try LLM first; persist EWMA only as a fallback when the LLM provider
+     * returns null. The downstream OilSignal already prefers LLM
+     * (llm_with_context > llm > ewma), so writing both rows on every run is
+     * dead weight 95% of the time. EWMA still acts as the safety net.
      */
     public function generatePrediction(): ?PricePrediction
     {
@@ -48,25 +48,23 @@ final class BrentPricePredictor
             return null;
         }
 
-        $ewma = $this->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
-
-        if ($ewma !== null) {
-            PricePrediction::create($ewma->toArray());
-        }
-
         $llm = $this->provider->predict($prices);
 
         if ($llm !== null) {
             PricePrediction::create($llm->toArray());
+            $prices->first()->forceFill(['prediction_generated_at' => now()])->save();
+
+            return $llm;
         }
 
-        $result = $llm ?? $ewma;
+        $ewma = $this->generateEwmaPrediction($prices);
 
-        if ($result !== null) {
+        if ($ewma !== null) {
+            PricePrediction::create($ewma->toArray());
             $prices->first()->forceFill(['prediction_generated_at' => now()])->save();
         }
 
-        return $result;
+        return $ewma;
     }
 
     public function generateEwmaPrediction(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
@@ -77,8 +75,8 @@ final class BrentPricePredictor
             return null;
         }
 
-        $ewma3 = $this->computeEwma(array_slice($chronological, -3));
-        $ewma7 = $this->computeEwma(array_slice($chronological, -7));
+        $ewma3 = Ewma::compute(array_slice($chronological, -3));
+        $ewma7 = Ewma::compute(array_slice($chronological, -7));
 
         $changePct = (($ewma3 - $ewma7) / $ewma7) * 100;
 
@@ -112,20 +110,6 @@ final class BrentPricePredictor
         ]);
     }
 
-    /**
-     * @param  float[]  $prices  Chronological (oldest first).
-     */
-    private function computeEwma(array $prices): float
-    {
-        $ema = $prices[0];
-
-        foreach (array_slice($prices, 1) as $price) {
-            $ema = self::EWMA_ALPHA * $price + (1 - self::EWMA_ALPHA) * $ema;
-        }
-
-        return round($ema, 4);
-    }
-
     private function ewmaConfidence(float $changePct): int
     {
         $scaled = min($changePct / 5.0, 1.0) * self::EWMA_MAX_CONFIDENCE;

app/Services/BrentPriceSources/EiaBrentPriceSource.php

@@ -3,8 +3,9 @@
 namespace App\Services\BrentPriceSources;
 
 use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use Illuminate\Http\Client\ConnectionException;
+use Illuminate\Http\Client\RequestException;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
-use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
 use Throwable;
 
 final class EiaBrentPriceSource
@@ -14,12 +15,16 @@ final class EiaBrentPriceSource
     public function __construct(private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger) {}
 
     /**
-     * @return array{date: string, price_usd: float}[]|null
+     * @return array{date: string, price_usd: float}[]|null null only when the response carried no usable rows
+     *
+     * @throws BrentPriceFetchException on network failure or non-2xx response after retries
      */
     public function fetch(): ?array
     {
         try {
-            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('eia', 'GET', self::URL, fn () => Http::timeout(10)
+            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('eia', 'GET', self::URL, fn () => Http::timeout(30)
+                ->retry(3, 200, fn (Throwable $e) => $this->shouldRetry($e))
+                ->throw()
                 ->get(self::URL, [
                     'api_key' => config('services.eia.api_key'),
                     'frequency' => 'daily',
@@ -29,32 +34,26 @@ final class EiaBrentPriceSource
                     'sort[0][direction]' => 'desc',
                     'length' => 30,
                 ]));
-
-            if (! $response->successful()) {
-                Log::error('EiaBrentPriceSource: request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            $rows = collect($response->json('response.data') ?? [])
-                ->filter(fn (array $row) => ($row['value'] ?? '.') !== '.')
-                ->map(fn (array $row) => [
-                    'date' => $row['period'],
-                    'price_usd' => (float) $row['value'],
-                ])
-                ->all();
-
-            if ($rows === []) {
-                Log::warning('EiaBrentPriceSource: no valid observations returned');
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            return $rows;
-        } catch (Throwable $e) {
-            Log::error('EiaBrentPriceSource: fetch failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
-
-            return null;
+        } catch (ConnectionException $e) {
+            throw new BrentPriceFetchException("EIA connection failed: {$e->getMessage()}", previous: $e);
+        } catch (RequestException $e) {
+            throw new BrentPriceFetchException("EIA returned HTTP {$e->response->status()}", previous: $e);
         }
+
+        $rows = collect($response->json('response.data') ?? [])
+            ->filter(fn (array $row) => ($row['value'] ?? '.') !== '.')
+            ->map(fn (array $row) => [
+                'date' => $row['period'],
+                'price_usd' => (float) $row['value'],
+            ])
+            ->all();
+
+        return $rows === [] ? null : $rows;
+    }
+
+    private function shouldRetry(Throwable $e): bool
+    {
+        return $e instanceof ConnectionException
+            || ($e instanceof RequestException && $e->response->serverError());
     }
 }

app/Services/BrentPriceSources/FredBrentPriceSource.php

@@ -3,8 +3,9 @@
 namespace App\Services\BrentPriceSources;
 
 use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use Illuminate\Http\Client\ConnectionException;
+use Illuminate\Http\Client\RequestException;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
-use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
 use Throwable;
 
 final class FredBrentPriceSource
@@ -14,12 +15,16 @@ final class FredBrentPriceSource
     public function __construct(private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger) {}
 
     /**
-     * @return array{date: string, price_usd: float}[]|null
+     * @return array{date: string, price_usd: float}[]|null null only when the response carried no usable rows
+     *
+     * @throws BrentPriceFetchException on network failure or non-2xx response after retries
      */
     public function fetch(): ?array
     {
         try {
-            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('fred', 'GET', self::URL, fn () => Http::timeout(10)
+            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('fred', 'GET', self::URL, fn () => Http::timeout(30)
+                ->retry(3, 200, fn (Throwable $e) => $this->shouldRetry($e))
+                ->throw()
                 ->get(self::URL, [
                     'series_id' => 'DCOILBRENTEU',
                     'api_key' => config('services.fred.api_key'),
@@ -27,32 +32,26 @@ final class FredBrentPriceSource
                     'limit' => 30,
                     'file_type' => 'json',
                 ]));
-
-            if (! $response->successful()) {
-                Log::error('FredBrentPriceSource: request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            $rows = collect($response->json('observations') ?? [])
-                ->filter(fn (array $obs) => $obs['value'] !== '.')
-                ->map(fn (array $obs) => [
-                    'date' => $obs['date'],
-                    'price_usd' => (float) $obs['value'],
-                ])
-                ->all();
-
-            if ($rows === []) {
-                Log::warning('FredBrentPriceSource: no valid observations returned');
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            return $rows;
-        } catch (Throwable $e) {
-            Log::error('FredBrentPriceSource: fetch failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
-
-            return null;
+        } catch (ConnectionException $e) {
+            throw new BrentPriceFetchException("FRED connection failed: {$e->getMessage()}", previous: $e);
+        } catch (RequestException $e) {
+            throw new BrentPriceFetchException("FRED returned HTTP {$e->response->status()}", previous: $e);
         }
+
+        $rows = collect($response->json('observations') ?? [])
+            ->filter(fn (array $obs) => $obs['value'] !== '.')
+            ->map(fn (array $obs) => [
+                'date' => $obs['date'],
+                'price_usd' => (float) $obs['value'],
+            ])
+            ->all();
+
+        return $rows === [] ? null : $rows;
+    }
+
+    private function shouldRetry(Throwable $e): bool
+    {
+        return $e instanceof ConnectionException
+            || ($e instanceof RequestException && $e->response->serverError());
     }
 }

app/Services/Ewma.php

@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services;
+
+/**
+ * Exponentially-weighted moving average. Pure function — used by
+ * BrentPricePredictor for the EWMA fallback prediction and by
+ * AnthropicPredictionProvider to enrich the basic-flow prompt.
+ */
+final class Ewma
+{
+    public const float DEFAULT_ALPHA = 0.3;
+
+    /** @param  float[]  $prices  Chronological order (oldest first). */
+    public static function compute(array $prices, float $alpha = self::DEFAULT_ALPHA): float
+    {
+        $ema = $prices[0];
+
+        foreach (array_slice($prices, 1) as $price) {
+            $ema = $alpha * $price + (1 - $alpha) * $ema;
+        }
+
+        return round($ema, 4);
+    }
+}

app/Services/FuelPriceService.php

@@ -45,7 +45,8 @@ class FuelPriceService
     {
         return Cache::remember(self::TOKEN_CACHE_KEY, 3540, function (): string {
             $url = config('services.fuel_finder.base_url').'/oauth/generate_access_token';
-            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('fuel_finder', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(10)
+            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('fuel_finder', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::retry(3, 500)
+                ->timeout(60)
                 ->post($url, [
                     'client_id' => config('services.fuel_finder.client_id'),
                     'client_secret' => config('services.fuel_finder.client_secret'),
@@ -66,57 +67,15 @@ class FuelPriceService
      */
     public function pollPrices(): int
     {
-        $token = $this->getAccessToken();
-        $inserted = 0;
-        $batch = 1;
         $pollStartedAt = now();
         $since = Cache::get(self::LAST_PRICE_POLL_CACHE_KEY);
-        $completedCleanly = false;
+        $sinceCarbon = $since instanceof CarbonInterface ? $since : null;
 
-        do {
-            try {
-                $baseUrl = config('services.fuel_finder.base_url').'/pfs/fuel-prices';
-                $params = ['batch-number' => $batch];
-
-                if ($since instanceof CarbonInterface) {
-                    $params['effective-start-timestamp'] = $since->format('Y-m-d H:i:s');
-                }
-
-                $logUrl = $baseUrl.'?'.http_build_query($params);
-                $response = $this->apiLogger->send('fuel_finder', 'GET', $logUrl, fn () => Http::timeout(30)
-                    ->withToken($token)
-                    ->get($baseUrl, $params));
-
-                if ($response->notFound()) {
-                    $completedCleanly = true;
-                    break;
-                }
-
-                if (! $response->successful()) {
-                    Log::error('FuelPriceService: price batch returned error', [
-                        'batch' => $batch,
-                        'status' => $response->status(),
-                    ]);
-                    break;
-                }
-
-                $stations = $response->json() ?? [];
-            } catch (Throwable $e) {
-                Log::error('FuelPriceService: price batch fetch failed', [
-                    'batch' => $batch,
-                    'error' => $e->getMessage(),
-                ]);
-                break;
-            }
-
-            if (empty($stations)) {
-                $completedCleanly = true;
-                break;
-            }
-
-            $inserted += $this->processPriceBatch($stations);
-            $batch++;
-        } while (true);
+        [$inserted, $completedCleanly] = $this->iterateBatches(
+            '/pfs/fuel-prices',
+            $sinceCarbon,
+            fn (array $stations): int => $this->processPriceBatch($stations),
+        );
 
         if ($completedCleanly) {
             Cache::forever(self::LAST_PRICE_POLL_CACHE_KEY, $pollStartedAt);
@@ -130,25 +89,53 @@ class FuelPriceService
      * Called on full daily refresh before pollPrices().
      */
     public function refreshStations(): void
+    {
+        $this->iterateBatches('/pfs', null, function (array $stations): int {
+            $this->upsertStations($stations);
+
+            return 0;
+        });
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Drive a paginated fuel-finder endpoint until exhausted, calling
+     * $process on each non-empty batch. Returns the sum of $process return
+     * values plus a flag indicating the loop exited cleanly (404 or empty
+     * body) rather than via an HTTP error or thrown exception. Callers use
+     * the flag to decide whether to update incremental-poll bookkeeping.
+     *
+     * @param  callable(array<int, array<string, mixed>>): int  $process
+     * @return array{0: int, 1: bool}
+     */
+    private function iterateBatches(string $endpoint, ?CarbonInterface $since, callable $process): array
     {
         $token = $this->getAccessToken();
+        $baseUrl = config('services.fuel_finder.base_url').$endpoint;
+        $total = 0;
         $batch = 1;
+        $completedCleanly = false;
 
         do {
             try {
-                $baseUrl = config('services.fuel_finder.base_url').'/pfs';
                 $params = ['batch-number' => $batch];
+
+                if ($since !== null) {
+                    $params['effective-start-timestamp'] = $since->format('Y-m-d H:i:s');
+                }
+
                 $logUrl = $baseUrl.'?'.http_build_query($params);
                 $response = $this->apiLogger->send('fuel_finder', 'GET', $logUrl, fn () => Http::timeout(30)
                     ->withToken($token)
                     ->get($baseUrl, $params));
 
                 if ($response->notFound()) {
-                    break; // No more batches
+                    $completedCleanly = true;
+                    break;
                 }
 
                 if (! $response->successful()) {
-                    Log::error('FuelPriceService: station batch returned error', [
+                    Log::error('FuelPriceService: batch returned error', [
+                        'endpoint' => $endpoint,
                         'batch' => $batch,
                         'status' => $response->status(),
                     ]);
@@ -157,7 +144,8 @@ class FuelPriceService
 
                 $stations = $response->json() ?? [];
             } catch (Throwable $e) {
-                Log::error('FuelPriceService: station batch fetch failed', [
+                Log::error('FuelPriceService: batch fetch failed', [
+                    'endpoint' => $endpoint,
                     'batch' => $batch,
                     'error' => $e->getMessage(),
                 ]);
@@ -165,12 +153,15 @@ class FuelPriceService
             }
 
             if (empty($stations)) {
+                $completedCleanly = true;
                 break;
             }
 
-            $this->upsertStations($stations);
+            $total += $process($stations);
             $batch++;
         } while (true);
+
+        return [$total, $completedCleanly];
     }
 
     /** @param array<int, array<string, mixed>> $apiStations */
@@ -208,9 +199,9 @@ class FuelPriceService
                 'postcode' => $data['location']['postcode'],
                 'lat' => $data['location']['latitude'],
                 'lng' => $data['location']['longitude'],
-                'amenities' => self::flattenEnabledFlags($data['amenities'] ?? []),
+                'amenities' => $this->flattenEnabledFlags($data['amenities'] ?? []),
                 'opening_times' => $data['opening_times'] ?? null,
-                'fuel_types' => self::flattenEnabledFlags($data['fuel_types'] ?? []),
+                'fuel_types' => $this->flattenEnabledFlags($data['fuel_types'] ?? []),
                 'last_seen_at' => $now,
             ]);
 
@@ -241,7 +232,7 @@ class FuelPriceService
      * @param  array<string, bool>|array<int, string>  $flags
      * @return array<int, string>
      */
-    private static function flattenEnabledFlags(array $flags): array
+    private function flattenEnabledFlags(array $flags): array
     {
         if ($flags === []) {
             return [];

app/Services/HaversineQuery.php

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services;
+
+/**
+ * Builds canonical haversine SQL fragments for distance and within-radius
+ * filtering. Centralises the float-clamping (GREATEST/LEAST) and the column
+ * naming convention used across prediction and station search queries.
+ *
+ * Assumes the joined/queried table exposes columns `lat` and `lng`.
+ */
+final class HaversineQuery
+{
+    private const string DISTANCE_KM_SQL =
+        '(6371 * acos(GREATEST(-1.0, LEAST(1.0, '
+        .'cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?)) '
+        .'+ sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))))))';
+
+    /**
+     * Bare distance-in-km expression. Caller adds aliasing or comparison.
+     *
+     * @return array{0: string, 1: array{float, float, float}}
+     */
+    public static function distanceKm(float $lat, float $lng): array
+    {
+        return [self::DISTANCE_KM_SQL, [$lat, $lng, $lat]];
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * `<= {km}` predicate suitable for whereRaw. The radius is embedded as a
+     * numeric literal because PDO + SQLite's whereRaw binds floats as strings
+     * by default, which breaks numeric comparison against the haversine
+     * expression. The `float` parameter is type-checked and not user input.
+     *
+     * @return array{0: string, 1: array{float, float, float}}
+     */
+    public static function withinKm(float $lat, float $lng, float $km): array
+    {
+        return [self::DISTANCE_KM_SQL.' <= '.sprintf('%F', $km), [$lat, $lng, $lat]];
+    }
+}

app/Services/LlmPrediction/AbstractLlmPredictionProvider.php

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\LlmPrediction;
+
+use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
+use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
+use App\Models\BrentPrice;
+use App\Models\PricePrediction;
+use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
+use Throwable;
+
+abstract class AbstractLlmPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
+{
+    protected const int LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 85;
+
+    public function __construct(
+        protected readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
+    ) {}
+
+    /**
+     * Default flow: gate on API key, call the provider, normalise the payload
+     * to a PricePrediction. Subclasses with multi-phase flows (e.g. Anthropic
+     * web-search) override `predict()` directly and reuse the helper methods.
+     */
+    public function predict(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
+    {
+        $apiKey = $this->apiKey();
+
+        if ($apiKey === null) {
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        try {
+            $payload = $this->callProvider($apiKey, $this->buildPriceList($prices));
+
+            return $payload === null ? null : $this->buildPrediction($payload);
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            Log::error(static::class.': predict failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+
+            return null;
+        }
+    }
+
+    /** Returns the configured API key or null if not set. */
+    abstract protected function apiKey(): ?string;
+
+    /**
+     * Make the provider HTTP call and return the normalised payload, or null
+     * on failure (already logged by the implementer).
+     *
+     * @return array{direction: string, confidence: int, reasoning: string}|null
+     */
+    abstract protected function callProvider(string $apiKey, string $priceList): ?array;
+
+    /** @param  Collection<int, BrentPrice>  $prices */
+    protected function buildPriceList(Collection $prices): string
+    {
+        return $prices->sortBy('date')
+            ->map(fn (BrentPrice $p) => $p->date->toDateString().': $'.$p->price_usd)
+            ->implode("\n");
+    }
+
+    /** @param  array{direction: string, confidence: int, reasoning: string}  $input */
+    protected function buildPrediction(array $input, PredictionSource $source = PredictionSource::Llm): ?PricePrediction
+    {
+        $direction = TrendDirection::tryFrom($input['direction'] ?? '');
+
+        if ($direction === null) {
+            Log::error(static::class.': invalid direction', ['input' => $input]);
+
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        return new PricePrediction([
+            'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
+            'source' => $source,
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'confidence' => min((int) ($input['confidence'] ?? 0), self::LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE),
+            'reasoning' => $input['reasoning'] ?? '',
+            'generated_at' => now(),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    protected function defaultPrompt(string $priceList): string
+    {
+        return <<<PROMPT
+            You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
+            Predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
+
+            Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
+            {$priceList}
+
+            Respond with direction (rising, falling, or flat), a confidence score (0–85),
+            and a one-sentence reasoning.
+            PROMPT;
+    }
+}

app/Services/LlmPrediction/AnthropicPredictionProvider.php

@@ -3,31 +3,23 @@
 namespace App\Services\LlmPrediction;
 
 use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
-use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
-use App\Models\BrentPrice;
 use App\Models\PricePrediction;
-use App\Services\ApiLogger;
+use App\Services\Ewma;
 use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
 use Throwable;
 
-class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
+class AnthropicPredictionProvider extends AbstractLlmPredictionProvider
 {
-    private const int LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 85;
-
-    private const float EWMA_ALPHA = 0.3;
-
-    public function __construct(
-        private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
-    ) {}
-
     /**
      * Tries web-search-enriched prediction first, falls back to basic tool use.
+     * Overrides the parent flow because Anthropic uses two phases (web search
+     * loop + forced tool call) and selects the source dynamically.
      */
     public function predict(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
     {
-        if (! config('services.anthropic.api_key')) {
+        if ($this->apiKey() === null) {
             return null;
         }
 
@@ -36,10 +28,21 @@ class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
         return $prediction ?? $this->predictBasic($prices);
     }
 
+    protected function apiKey(): ?string
+    {
+        return config('services.anthropic.api_key');
+    }
+
+    /** {@inheritDoc} */
+    protected function callProvider(string $apiKey, string $priceList): ?array
+    {
+        return null;
+    }
+
     /**
      * Multi-turn web search phase, then a forced submit_prediction call.
-     * Phase 1: Let the model search for recent oil/geopolitical news (pause_turn loop).
-     * Phase 2: Force submit_prediction with the full conversation context.
+     * Phase 1: let the model search for recent oil/geopolitical news.
+     * Phase 2: force submit_prediction with the full conversation context.
      */
     private function predictWithWebContext(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
     {
@@ -47,7 +50,6 @@ class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
         $url = 'https://api.anthropic.com/v1/messages';
 
         try {
-            // Phase 1: web search loop
             for ($i = 0, $response = null; $i < 5; $i++) {
                 $response = $this->apiLogger->send('anthropic', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(30)
                     ->withHeaders($this->headers())
@@ -59,7 +61,7 @@ class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
                     ]));
 
                 if (! $response->successful()) {
-                    Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: context search request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
+                    Log::error(self::class.': context search request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
 
                     return null;
                 }
@@ -71,7 +73,6 @@ class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
                 $messages[] = ['role' => 'assistant', 'content' => $response->json('content')];
             }
 
-            // Phase 2: forced submit with full context
             $messages[] = ['role' => 'assistant', 'content' => $response->json('content')];
             $messages[] = ['role' => 'user', 'content' => 'Now submit your prediction using the submit_prediction tool.'];
 
@@ -86,22 +87,61 @@ class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
                 ]));
 
             if (! $submitResponse->successful()) {
-                Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: context submit request failed', ['status' => $submitResponse->status()]);
+                Log::error(self::class.': context submit request failed', ['status' => $submitResponse->status()]);
 
                 return null;
             }
 
             $input = $this->extractToolInput($submitResponse->json('content') ?? []);
 
-            if ($input === null) {
-                Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: no tool_use block in context submit response');
+            return $input === null
+                ? null
+                : $this->buildPrediction($input, PredictionSource::LlmWithContext);
+        } catch (Throwable $e) {
+            Log::error(self::class.': predictWithWebContext failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+
+            return null;
+        }
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Single-turn prediction using a forced submit_prediction tool call.
+     * Guarantees structured output — no JSON parsing needed.
+     */
+    private function predictBasic(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
+    {
+        $chronological = $prices->sortBy('date');
+        $ewma3 = Ewma::compute($chronological->take(-3)->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
+        $ewma7 = Ewma::compute($chronological->take(-7)->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
+        $ewma14 = Ewma::compute($chronological->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
+
+        $url = 'https://api.anthropic.com/v1/messages';
+
+        try {
+            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('anthropic', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
+                ->withHeaders($this->headers())
+                ->post($url, [
+                    'model' => config('services.anthropic.model', 'claude-haiku-4-5-20251001'),
+                    'max_tokens' => 256,
+                    'tools' => [$this->submitPredictionTool()],
+                    'tool_choice' => ['type' => 'tool', 'name' => 'submit_prediction'],
+                    'messages' => [[
+                        'role' => 'user',
+                        'content' => $this->basicPrompt($this->buildPriceList($prices), $ewma3, $ewma7, $ewma14),
+                    ]],
+                ]));
+
+            if (! $response->successful()) {
+                Log::error(self::class.': basic request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
 
                 return null;
             }
 
-            return $this->buildPrediction($input, PredictionSource::LlmWithContext);
+            $input = $this->extractToolInput($response->json('content') ?? []);
+
+            return $input === null ? null : $this->buildPrediction($input);
         } catch (Throwable $e) {
-            Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: predictWithWebContext failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+            Log::error(self::class.': predictBasic failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
 
             return null;
         }
@@ -126,18 +166,29 @@ class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
             PROMPT;
     }
 
-    private function buildPriceList(Collection $prices): string
+    private function basicPrompt(string $priceList, float $ewma3, float $ewma7, float $ewma14): string
     {
-        return $prices->sortBy('date')
-            ->map(fn (BrentPrice $p) => $p->date->toDateString().': $'.$p->price_usd)
-            ->implode("\n");
+        return <<<PROMPT
+            You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
+            Predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
+
+            Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
+            {$priceList}
+
+            Pre-computed indicators:
+            - 3-day EWMA:  \${$ewma3}
+            - 7-day EWMA:  \${$ewma7}
+            - 14-day EWMA: \${$ewma14}
+
+            Use the submit_prediction tool to submit your answer.
+            PROMPT;
     }
 
     /** @return array<string, string> */
     private function headers(): array
     {
         return [
-            'x-api-key' => config('services.anthropic.api_key'),
+            'x-api-key' => $this->apiKey(),
             'anthropic-version' => '2023-06-01',
         ];
     }
@@ -177,108 +228,4 @@ class AnthropicPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
 
         return $block['input'] ?? null;
     }
-
-    /** @param  array{direction: string, confidence: int, reasoning: string}  $input */
-    private function buildPrediction(array $input, PredictionSource $source): ?PricePrediction
-    {
-        $direction = TrendDirection::tryFrom($input['direction'] ?? '');
-
-        if ($direction === null) {
-            Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: invalid direction in tool input', ['input' => $input]);
-
-            return null;
-        }
-
-        return new PricePrediction([
-            'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
-            'source' => $source,
-            'direction' => $direction,
-            'confidence' => min((int) $input['confidence'], self::LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE),
-            'reasoning' => $input['reasoning'],
-            'generated_at' => now(),
-        ]);
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Single-turn prediction using a forced submit_prediction tool call.
-     * Guarantees structured output — no JSON parsing needed.
-     */
-    private function predictBasic(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
-    {
-        $chronological = $prices->sortBy('date');
-        $ewma3 = $this->computeEwma($chronological->take(-3)->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
-        $ewma7 = $this->computeEwma($chronological->take(-7)->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
-        $ewma14 = $this->computeEwma($chronological->pluck('price_usd')->values()->all());
-
-        $priceList = $this->buildPriceList($prices);
-
-        $url = 'https://api.anthropic.com/v1/messages';
-
-        try {
-            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('anthropic', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
-                ->withHeaders($this->headers())
-                ->post($url, [
-                    'model' => config('services.anthropic.model', 'claude-haiku-4-5-20251001'),
-                    'max_tokens' => 256,
-                    'tools' => [$this->submitPredictionTool()],
-                    'tool_choice' => ['type' => 'tool', 'name' => 'submit_prediction'],
-                    'messages' => [[
-                        'role' => 'user',
-                        'content' => $this->basicPrompt($priceList, $ewma3, $ewma7, $ewma14),
-                    ]],
-                ]));
-
-            if (! $response->successful()) {
-                Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: basic request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            $input = $this->extractToolInput($response->json('content') ?? []);
-
-            if ($input === null) {
-                Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: no tool_use block in basic response');
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            return $this->buildPrediction($input, PredictionSource::Llm);
-        } catch (Throwable $e) {
-            Log::error('AnthropicPredictionProvider: predictBasic failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
-
-            return null;
-        }
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * @param  float[]  $prices  Chronological order (oldest first)
-     */
-    private function computeEwma(array $prices): float
-    {
-        $ema = $prices[0];
-
-        foreach (array_slice($prices, 1) as $price) {
-            $ema = self::EWMA_ALPHA * $price + (1 - self::EWMA_ALPHA) * $ema;
-        }
-
-        return round($ema, 4);
-    }
-
-    private function basicPrompt(string $priceList, float $ewma3, float $ewma7, float $ewma14): string
-    {
-        return <<<PROMPT
-            You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
-            Predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
-
-            Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
-            {$priceList}
-
-            Pre-computed indicators:
-            - 3-day EWMA:  \${$ewma3}
-            - 7-day EWMA:  \${$ewma7}
-            - 14-day EWMA: \${$ewma14}
-
-            Use the submit_prediction tool to submit your answer.
-            PROMPT;
-    }
 }

app/Services/LlmPrediction/GeminiPredictionProvider.php

@@ -2,110 +2,59 @@
 
 namespace App\Services\LlmPrediction;
 
-use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
-use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
-use App\Models\BrentPrice;
-use App\Models\PricePrediction;
-use App\Services\ApiLogger;
-use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
-use Throwable;
 
-class GeminiPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
+class GeminiPredictionProvider extends AbstractLlmPredictionProvider
 {
-    private const int LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 85;
-
-    public function __construct(
-        private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
-    ) {}
-
-    public function predict(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
+    protected function apiKey(): ?string
     {
-        if (! config('services.gemini.api_key')) {
-            return null;
-        }
-
-        $priceList = $prices->sortBy('date')
-            ->map(fn (BrentPrice $p) => $p->date->toDateString().': $'.$p->price_usd)
-            ->implode("\n");
+        return config('services.gemini.api_key');
+    }
 
+    protected function callProvider(string $apiKey, string $priceList): ?array
+    {
         $model = config('services.gemini.model', 'gemini-2.0-flash');
         $url = "https://generativelanguage.googleapis.com/v1beta/models/{$model}:generateContent";
 
-        try {
-            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('gemini', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
-                ->withQueryParameters(['key' => config('services.gemini.api_key')])
-                ->post($url, [
-                    'contents' => [[
-                        'parts' => [['text' => $this->prompt($priceList)]],
-                    ]],
-                    'generationConfig' => [
-                        'responseMimeType' => 'application/json',
-                        'responseSchema' => [
-                            'type' => 'OBJECT',
-                            'properties' => [
-                                'direction' => [
-                                    'type' => 'STRING',
-                                    'enum' => ['rising', 'falling', 'flat'],
-                                ],
-                                'confidence' => ['type' => 'INTEGER'],
-                                'reasoning' => ['type' => 'STRING'],
+        $response = $this->apiLogger->send('gemini', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
+            ->withQueryParameters(['key' => $apiKey])
+            ->post($url, [
+                'contents' => [[
+                    'parts' => [['text' => $this->defaultPrompt($priceList)]],
+                ]],
+                'generationConfig' => [
+                    'responseMimeType' => 'application/json',
+                    'responseSchema' => [
+                        'type' => 'OBJECT',
+                        'properties' => [
+                            'direction' => [
+                                'type' => 'STRING',
+                                'enum' => ['rising', 'falling', 'flat'],
                             ],
-                            'required' => ['direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning'],
+                            'confidence' => ['type' => 'INTEGER'],
+                            'reasoning' => ['type' => 'STRING'],
                         ],
+                        'required' => ['direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning'],
                     ],
-                ]));
+                ],
+            ]));
 
-            if (! $response->successful()) {
-                Log::error('GeminiPredictionProvider: request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            $text = $response->json('candidates.0.content.parts.0.text') ?? '';
-            $data = json_decode($text, true);
-
-            if (! isset($data['direction'], $data['confidence'], $data['reasoning'])) {
-                Log::error('GeminiPredictionProvider: unexpected response format', ['text' => $text]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            $direction = TrendDirection::tryFrom($data['direction']);
-
-            if ($direction === null) {
-                Log::error('GeminiPredictionProvider: invalid direction', ['direction' => $data['direction']]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            return new PricePrediction([
-                'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
-                'source' => PredictionSource::Llm,
-                'direction' => $direction,
-                'confidence' => min((int) $data['confidence'], self::LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE),
-                'reasoning' => $data['reasoning'],
-                'generated_at' => now(),
-            ]);
-        } catch (Throwable $e) {
-            Log::error('GeminiPredictionProvider: predict failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+        if (! $response->successful()) {
+            Log::error(self::class.': request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
 
             return null;
         }
-    }
 
-    private function prompt(string $priceList): string
-    {
-        return <<<PROMPT
-            You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
-            Predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
+        $text = $response->json('candidates.0.content.parts.0.text') ?? '';
+        $data = json_decode($text, true);
 
-            Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
-            {$priceList}
+        if (! isset($data['direction'], $data['confidence'], $data['reasoning'])) {
+            Log::error(self::class.': unexpected response format', ['text' => $text]);
 
-            Respond with direction (rising, falling, or flat), a confidence score (0–85),
-            and a one-sentence reasoning.
-            PROMPT;
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        return $data;
     }
 }

app/Services/LlmPrediction/OpenAiPredictionProvider.php

@@ -2,112 +2,61 @@
 
 namespace App\Services\LlmPrediction;
 
-use App\Enums\PredictionSource;
-use App\Enums\TrendDirection;
-use App\Models\BrentPrice;
-use App\Models\PricePrediction;
-use App\Services\ApiLogger;
-use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
-use Throwable;
 
-class OpenAiPredictionProvider implements OilPredictionProvider
+class OpenAiPredictionProvider extends AbstractLlmPredictionProvider
 {
-    private const int LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE = 85;
-
-    public function __construct(
-        private readonly ApiLogger $apiLogger,
-    ) {}
-
-    public function predict(Collection $prices): ?PricePrediction
+    protected function apiKey(): ?string
     {
-        if (! config('services.openai.api_key')) {
-            return null;
-        }
-
-        $priceList = $prices->sortBy('date')
-            ->map(fn (BrentPrice $p) => $p->date->toDateString().': $'.$p->price_usd)
-            ->implode("\n");
+        return config('services.openai.api_key');
+    }
 
+    protected function callProvider(string $apiKey, string $priceList): ?array
+    {
         $url = 'https://api.openai.com/v1/chat/completions';
 
-        try {
-            $response = $this->apiLogger->send('openai', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
-                ->withToken(config('services.openai.api_key'))
-                ->post($url, [
-                    'model' => config('services.openai.model', 'gpt-4o-mini'),
-                    'response_format' => [
-                        'type' => 'json_schema',
-                        'json_schema' => [
-                            'name' => 'oil_prediction',
-                            'strict' => true,
-                            'schema' => [
-                                'type' => 'object',
-                                'properties' => [
-                                    'direction' => ['type' => 'string', 'enum' => ['rising', 'falling', 'flat']],
-                                    'confidence' => ['type' => 'integer'],
-                                    'reasoning' => ['type' => 'string'],
-                                ],
-                                'required' => ['direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning'],
-                                'additionalProperties' => false,
+        $response = $this->apiLogger->send('openai', 'POST', $url, fn () => Http::timeout(15)
+            ->withToken($apiKey)
+            ->post($url, [
+                'model' => config('services.openai.model', 'gpt-4o-mini'),
+                'response_format' => [
+                    'type' => 'json_schema',
+                    'json_schema' => [
+                        'name' => 'oil_prediction',
+                        'strict' => true,
+                        'schema' => [
+                            'type' => 'object',
+                            'properties' => [
+                                'direction' => ['type' => 'string', 'enum' => ['rising', 'falling', 'flat']],
+                                'confidence' => ['type' => 'integer'],
+                                'reasoning' => ['type' => 'string'],
                             ],
+                            'required' => ['direction', 'confidence', 'reasoning'],
+                            'additionalProperties' => false,
                         ],
                     ],
-                    'messages' => [[
-                        'role' => 'user',
-                        'content' => $this->prompt($priceList),
-                    ]],
-                ]));
+                ],
+                'messages' => [[
+                    'role' => 'user',
+                    'content' => $this->defaultPrompt($priceList),
+                ]],
+            ]));
 
-            if (! $response->successful()) {
-                Log::error('OpenAiPredictionProvider: request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            $data = json_decode($response->json('choices.0.message.content') ?? '{}', true);
-
-            if (! isset($data['direction'], $data['confidence'], $data['reasoning'])) {
-                Log::error('OpenAiPredictionProvider: unexpected response format', ['data' => $data]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            $direction = TrendDirection::tryFrom($data['direction']);
-
-            if ($direction === null) {
-                Log::error('OpenAiPredictionProvider: invalid direction', ['direction' => $data['direction']]);
-
-                return null;
-            }
-
-            return new PricePrediction([
-                'predicted_for' => now()->toDateString(),
-                'source' => PredictionSource::Llm,
-                'direction' => $direction,
-                'confidence' => min((int) $data['confidence'], self::LLM_MAX_CONFIDENCE),
-                'reasoning' => $data['reasoning'],
-                'generated_at' => now(),
-            ]);
-        } catch (Throwable $e) {
-            Log::error('OpenAiPredictionProvider: predict failed', ['error' => $e->getMessage()]);
+        if (! $response->successful()) {
+            Log::error(self::class.': request failed', ['status' => $response->status()]);
 
             return null;
         }
-    }
 
-    private function prompt(string $priceList): string
-    {
-        return <<<PROMPT
-            You are analyzing Brent crude oil price data for a UK fuel price alert service.
-            Predict the short-term direction over the next 3–5 days.
+        $data = json_decode($response->json('choices.0.message.content') ?? '{}', true);
 
-            Recent Brent crude prices (USD/barrel):
-            {$priceList}
+        if (! isset($data['direction'], $data['confidence'], $data['reasoning'])) {
+            Log::error(self::class.': unexpected response format', ['data' => $data]);
 
-            Respond with direction (rising, falling, or flat), a confidence score (0–85),
-            and a one-sentence reasoning.
-            PROMPT;
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        return $data;
     }
 }

app/Services/NationalFuelPredictionService.php

@@ -4,16 +4,31 @@ namespace App\Services;
 
 use App\Enums\FuelType;
 use App\Models\StationPriceCurrent;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\BrandBehaviourSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\DayOfWeekSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\OilSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\RegionalMomentumSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\SignalContext;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\StickinessSignal;
+use App\Services\Prediction\Signals\TrendSignal;
+use Carbon\CarbonInterface;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
 
 class NationalFuelPredictionService
 {
-    private const float R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD = 0.5;
-
     private const float SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE = 0.3;
 
     private const int PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS = 7;
 
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly TrendSignal $trendSignal,
+        private readonly DayOfWeekSignal $dayOfWeekSignal,
+        private readonly BrandBehaviourSignal $brandBehaviourSignal,
+        private readonly StickinessSignal $stickinessSignal,
+        private readonly RegionalMomentumSignal $regionalMomentumSignal,
+        private readonly OilSignal $oilSignal,
+    ) {}
+
     /**
      * @return array{
      *     fuel_type: string,
@@ -34,19 +49,19 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
     {
         $fuelType = FuelType::E10;
         $hasCoordinates = $lat !== null && $lng !== null;
+        $context = new SignalContext($fuelType, $lat, $lng);
 
         $currentAvg = $this->getCurrentAverage($fuelType, $lat, $lng);
-        $trend = $this->computeTrendSignal($fuelType);
-        $dayOfWeek = $this->computeDayOfWeekSignal($fuelType);
-        $brandBehaviour = $this->computeBrandBehaviourSignal($fuelType);
-        $stickiness = $this->computeStickinessSignal($fuelType);
+        $trend = $this->trendSignal->compute($context);
+        $dayOfWeek = $this->dayOfWeekSignal->compute($context);
+        $brandBehaviour = $this->brandBehaviourSignal->compute($context);
+        $stickiness = $this->stickinessSignal->compute($context);
+        $oil = $this->oilSignal->compute($context);
 
         $nationalMomentum = $this->disabledSignal('National momentum disabled for national predictions');
-        $regionalMomentum = $hasCoordinates
-            ? $this->computeRegionalMomentumSignal($fuelType, $lat, $lng)
-            : $this->disabledSignal('No coordinates provided for regional momentum analysis');
+        $regionalMomentum = $this->regionalMomentumSignal->compute($context);
 
-        $signals = compact('trend', 'dayOfWeek', 'brandBehaviour', 'nationalMomentum', 'regionalMomentum', 'stickiness');
+        $signals = compact('trend', 'dayOfWeek', 'brandBehaviour', 'nationalMomentum', 'regionalMomentum', 'stickiness', 'oil');
 
         [$direction, $confidenceScore] = $this->aggregateSignals($signals, $hasCoordinates);
 
@@ -65,6 +80,8 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
             default => 'no_signal',
         };
 
+        $weeklySummary = $this->computeWeeklySummary($fuelType, $lat, $lng, $currentAvg, $slope);
+
         return [
             'fuel_type' => $fuelType->value,
             'current_avg' => $currentAvg,
@@ -73,10 +90,11 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
             'confidence_score' => $confidenceScore,
             'confidence_label' => $confidenceLabel,
             'action' => $action,
-            'reasoning' => $this->buildReasoning($direction, $slope, $trend, $brandBehaviour),
+            'reasoning' => $this->buildReasoning($direction, $slope, $trend, $brandBehaviour, $dayOfWeek),
             'prediction_horizon_days' => self::PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS,
             'region_key' => $hasCoordinates ? 'regional' : 'national',
             'methodology' => 'multi_signal_live_fallback',
+            'weekly_summary' => $weeklySummary,
             'signals' => [
                 'trend' => $trend,
                 'day_of_week' => $dayOfWeek,
@@ -84,6 +102,7 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
                 'national_momentum' => $nationalMomentum,
                 'regional_momentum' => $regionalMomentum,
                 'price_stickiness' => $stickiness,
+                'oil' => $oil,
             ],
         ];
     }
@@ -91,10 +110,12 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
     private function getCurrentAverage(FuelType $fuelType, ?float $lat, ?float $lng): float
     {
         if ($lat !== null && $lng !== null) {
+            [$radiusSql, $radiusBindings] = HaversineQuery::withinKm($lat, $lng, 50);
+
             $avg = DB::table('station_prices_current')
                 ->join('stations', 'station_prices_current.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
                 ->where('station_prices_current.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-                ->whereRaw('(6371 * acos(LEAST(1.0, cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?)) + sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))))) <= 50', [$lat, $lng, $lat])
+                ->whereRaw($radiusSql, $radiusBindings)
                 ->avg('station_prices_current.price_pence');
 
             if ($avg !== null) {
@@ -107,285 +128,6 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
         return $avg !== null ? round((float) $avg / 100, 1) : 0.0;
     }
 
-    /**
-     * Linear regression on daily national average prices.
-     * Tries 5-day lookback first; falls back to 14-day if R² < threshold.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool, slope: float, r_squared: float}
-     */
-    private function computeTrendSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
-    {
-        foreach ([5, 14] as $lookbackDays) {
-            $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-                ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-                ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays($lookbackDays))
-                ->selectRaw('DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price')
-                ->groupBy('day')
-                ->orderBy('day')
-                ->get();
-
-            if ($rows->count() < 2) {
-                continue;
-            }
-
-            $regression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all());
-
-            if ($regression['r_squared'] >= self::R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD) {
-                $slope = $regression['slope'];
-                $direction = match (true) {
-                    $slope >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
-                    $slope <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
-                    default => 'stable',
-                };
-                $absSlope = abs($slope);
-                $score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : min(1.0, $absSlope / 2.0) * ($slope > 0 ? 1 : -1);
-                $projected = round($slope * $lookbackDays, 1);
-                $detail = $direction === 'stable'
-                    ? "Prices flat over {$lookbackDays} days (slope: {$slope}p/day, R²={$regression['r_squared']})"
-                    : sprintf(
-                        '%s at %sp/day over %d days (R²=%s, ~%s%sp in %dd)',
-                        $slope > 0 ? 'Rising' : 'Falling',
-                        abs(round($slope, 2)),
-                        $lookbackDays,
-                        round($regression['r_squared'], 2),
-                        $projected > 0 ? '+' : '',
-                        $projected,
-                        self::PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS,
-                    );
-
-                if ($lookbackDays === 5) {
-                    $detail .= ' [Adaptive lookback active]';
-                }
-
-                return [
-                    'score' => $score,
-                    'confidence' => min(1.0, $regression['r_squared']),
-                    'direction' => $direction,
-                    'detail' => $detail,
-                    'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-                    'enabled' => true,
-                    'slope' => round($slope, 3),
-                    'r_squared' => round($regression['r_squared'], 3),
-                ];
-            }
-        }
-
-        return [
-            'score' => 0.0,
-            'confidence' => 0.0,
-            'direction' => 'stable',
-            'detail' => 'Insufficient price history or noisy data (R² below threshold)',
-            'data_points' => 0,
-            'enabled' => false,
-            'slope' => 0.0,
-            'r_squared' => 0.0,
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Compare today's average price against the per-weekday average over 90 days.
-     * Requires 56+ days of history to activate.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
-     */
-    private function computeDayOfWeekSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
-    {
-        $isSqlite = DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite';
-        $dowExpr = $isSqlite
-            ? "(CAST(strftime('%w', price_effective_at) AS INTEGER) + 1)"
-            : 'DAYOFWEEK(price_effective_at)';
-
-        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-            ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-            ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(90))
-            ->selectRaw("{$dowExpr} as dow, DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price")
-            ->groupBy('dow', 'day')
-            ->get();
-
-        $uniqueDays = $rows->pluck('day')->unique()->count();
-
-        if ($uniqueDays < 56) {
-            return $this->disabledSignal("Insufficient history for day-of-week pattern ({$uniqueDays} days, need 56)");
-        }
-
-        $dowAverages = $rows->groupBy('dow')->map(fn ($g) => $g->avg('avg_price'));
-        $weekAvg = $dowAverages->avg();
-        $todayDow = (int) now()->format('w') + 1; // PHP 0=Sun → MySQL 1=Sun
-        $todayAvg = $dowAverages->get($todayDow, $weekAvg);
-        $cheapestDow = $dowAverages->keys()->sortBy(fn ($k) => $dowAverages[$k])->first();
-        $dayNames = ['Sun', 'Mon', 'Tue', 'Wed', 'Thu', 'Fri', 'Sat'];
-        $cheapestDayName = $dayNames[($cheapestDow - 1) % 7] ?? 'Unknown';
-        $weekRange = round(($dowAverages->max() - $dowAverages->min()) / 100, 1);
-        $tomorrowDelta = round(($dowAverages->get(($todayDow % 7) + 1, $weekAvg) - $todayAvg) / 100, 1);
-
-        $direction = match (true) {
-            ($todayAvg - $weekAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'up',
-            ($weekAvg - $todayAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'down',
-            default => 'stable',
-        };
-
-        $score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0);
-
-        return [
-            'score' => $score,
-            'confidence' => min(1.0, $uniqueDays / 90),
-            'direction' => $direction,
-            'detail' => "Cheapest day: {$cheapestDayName}. Weekly range: {$weekRange}p. Tomorrow typically {$tomorrowDelta}p less than today.",
-            'data_points' => $uniqueDays,
-            'enabled' => true,
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Compare supermarket vs non-supermarket 7-day price trend.
-     * Detects divergence where one group has moved but the other hasn't yet.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
-     */
-    private function computeBrandBehaviourSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
-    {
-        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-            ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
-            ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-            ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(7))
-            ->selectRaw('stations.is_supermarket, DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
-            ->groupBy('stations.is_supermarket', 'day')
-            ->orderBy('day')
-            ->get();
-
-        $supermarket = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 1)->values();
-        $major = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 0)->values();
-
-        if ($supermarket->count() < 2 || $major->count() < 2) {
-            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient brand data for comparison');
-        }
-
-        $supermarketSlope = $this->linearRegression($supermarket->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
-        $majorSlope = $this->linearRegression($major->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
-
-        $divergence = round(abs($supermarketSlope - $majorSlope) * 7, 1);
-        $supermarketChange = round($supermarketSlope * 7, 1);
-        $majorChange = round($majorSlope * 7, 1);
-
-        if ($divergence < 1.0) {
-            return [
-                'score' => 0.0,
-                'confidence' => 0.5,
-                'direction' => 'stable',
-                'detail' => 'Supermarkets and majors moving in sync.',
-                'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-                'enabled' => true,
-            ];
-        }
-
-        $leaderChange = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? $supermarketChange : $majorChange;
-        $direction = $leaderChange > 0 ? 'up' : 'down';
-        $leader = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? 'Supermarkets' : 'Majors';
-        $follower = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? 'majors' : 'supermarkets';
-        $leaderAbs = abs($leaderChange);
-        $followerChange = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? abs($majorChange) : abs($supermarketChange);
-
-        return [
-            'score' => $direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0,
-            'confidence' => min(1.0, $divergence / 5.0),
-            'direction' => $direction,
-            'detail' => "{$leader} ".($leaderChange > 0 ? 'rose' : 'fell')." {$leaderAbs}p vs {$follower} {$followerChange}p (divergence: {$divergence}p). Expect {$follower} to follow.",
-            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-            'enabled' => true,
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Average hold duration (days between price changes) as a confidence modifier.
-     * Requires 30+ days of history. Returns a score between -0.1 and +0.1.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
-     */
-    private function computeStickinessSignal(FuelType $fuelType): array
-    {
-        $isSqlite = DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite';
-        $diffExpr = $isSqlite
-            ? 'CAST((julianday(MAX(price_effective_at)) - julianday(MIN(price_effective_at))) AS INTEGER)'
-            : 'DATEDIFF(MAX(price_effective_at), MIN(price_effective_at))';
-
-        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-            ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-            ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(30))
-            ->selectRaw("station_id, COUNT(*) as changes, {$diffExpr} as span_days")
-            ->groupBy('station_id')
-            ->having('changes', '>', 1)
-            ->having('span_days', '>', 0)
-            ->get();
-
-        if ($rows->count() < 10) {
-            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient stickiness data (need 10+ stations with price history)');
-        }
-
-        $avgHoldDays = $rows->avg(fn ($r) => $r->span_days / ($r->changes - 1));
-        $avgHoldDays = round((float) $avgHoldDays, 1);
-
-        $score = match (true) {
-            $avgHoldDays < 2 => -0.1,
-            $avgHoldDays > 5 => 0.1,
-            default => 0.0,
-        };
-
-        $detail = match (true) {
-            $avgHoldDays < 2 => "Volatile prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — harder to predict.",
-            $avgHoldDays > 5 => "Sticky prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — more predictable.",
-            default => "Normal hold period (avg: {$avgHoldDays} days).",
-        };
-
-        return [
-            'score' => $score,
-            'confidence' => min(1.0, $rows->count() / 200),
-            'direction' => 'stable',
-            'detail' => $detail,
-            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-            'enabled' => true,
-        ];
-    }
-
-    /**
-     * Placeholder for regional momentum signal (requires lat/lng).
-     * Compares local station prices vs national average trend.
-     *
-     * @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool}
-     */
-    private function computeRegionalMomentumSignal(FuelType $fuelType, float $lat, float $lng): array
-    {
-        // Regional momentum: compare trend of stations within 50km vs national trend
-        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
-            ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
-            ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
-            ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(14))
-            ->whereRaw('(6371 * acos(CASE WHEN (cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?)) + sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))) > 1.0 THEN 1.0 ELSE (cos(radians(?)) * cos(radians(lat)) * cos(radians(lng) - radians(?)) + sin(radians(?)) * sin(radians(lat))) END)) <= 50', [$lat, $lng, $lat, $lat, $lng, $lat])
-            ->selectRaw('DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
-            ->groupBy('day')
-            ->orderBy('day')
-            ->get();
-
-        if ($rows->count() < 3) {
-            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient regional data');
-        }
-
-        $regionalRegression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all());
-        $direction = match (true) {
-            $regionalRegression['slope'] >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
-            $regionalRegression['slope'] <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
-            default => 'stable',
-        };
-
-        return [
-            'score' => $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 0.7 : -0.7),
-            'confidence' => min(1.0, $regionalRegression['r_squared']),
-            'direction' => $direction,
-            'detail' => 'Regional trend: '.round($regionalRegression['slope'], 2).'p/day (R²='.round($regionalRegression['r_squared'], 2).')',
-            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
-            'enabled' => true,
-        ];
-    }
-
     /** @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool} */
     private function disabledSignal(string $detail): array
     {
@@ -400,46 +142,64 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
     }
 
     /**
-     * Weighted aggregate of enabled signals.
-     * Returns [direction string, confidence score 0-100].
+     * Aggregate enabled signals into a final direction + confidence score.
      *
-     * @param  array<string, array{score: float, confidence: float, enabled: bool}>  $signals
+     * Direction: weighted vote across signals that have a non-stable direction.
+     *   stable signals do NOT dilute the directional vote.
+     *
+     * Confidence: weighted average of enabled signals' own confidence values,
+     *   multiplied by an agreement coefficient (0..1) measuring how the signals
+     *   line up with the chosen direction.
+     *
+     * @param  array<string, array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, enabled: bool}>  $signals
      * @return array{0: string, 1: float}
      */
     private function aggregateSignals(array $signals, bool $hasCoordinates = false): array
     {
         $weights = $hasCoordinates
             ? [
-                'regionalMomentum' => 0.50,
-                'trend' => 0.20,
+                'regionalMomentum' => 0.35,
+                'oil' => 0.20,
+                'trend' => 0.15,
                 'dayOfWeek' => 0.15,
                 'brandBehaviour' => 0.10,
                 'stickiness' => 0.05,
             ]
             : [
-                'trend' => 0.45,
+                'trend' => 0.30,
+                'oil' => 0.25,
                 'dayOfWeek' => 0.20,
-                'brandBehaviour' => 0.25,
+                'brandBehaviour' => 0.15,
                 'stickiness' => 0.10,
             ];
 
-        $weightedSum = 0.0;
-        $totalWeight = 0.0;
+        $directionalScoreSum = 0.0;
+        $directionalWeightSum = 0.0;
+        $confidenceWeightedSum = 0.0;
+        $totalEnabledWeight = 0.0;
 
         foreach ($weights as $key => $weight) {
             $signal = $signals[$key] ?? null;
-            if ($signal && $signal['enabled']) {
-                $weightedSum += $signal['score'] * $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
-                $totalWeight += $weight;
+            if (! $signal || ! $signal['enabled']) {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            $totalEnabledWeight += $weight;
+            $confidenceWeightedSum += $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
+
+            if ($signal['direction'] !== 'stable') {
+                $directionalScoreSum += $signal['score'] * $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
+                $directionalWeightSum += $weight;
             }
         }
 
-        if ($totalWeight < 0.01) {
+        if ($totalEnabledWeight < 0.01) {
             return ['stable', 0.0];
         }
 
-        $normalised = $weightedSum / $totalWeight;
-        $confidenceScore = round(min(100.0, abs($normalised) * 100), 1);
+        $normalised = $directionalWeightSum > 0.01
+            ? $directionalScoreSum / $directionalWeightSum
+            : 0.0;
 
         $direction = match (true) {
             $normalised >= 0.1 => 'up',
@@ -447,51 +207,185 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
             default => 'stable',
         };
 
+        $avgConfidence = $confidenceWeightedSum / $totalEnabledWeight;
+        $agreement = $this->computeAgreement($signals, $weights, $direction);
+
+        $confidenceScore = round(min(100.0, $avgConfidence * $agreement * 100), 1);
+
         return [$direction, $confidenceScore];
     }
 
     /**
-     * Least-squares linear regression.
-     * x is the array index (day number), y is the price value.
+     * How well the enabled signals line up with the chosen direction.
+     *   - aligned signal: full credit (signal_confidence × weight)
+     *   - one side stable, other directional: half credit
+     *   - opposing signals: no credit
      *
-     * @param  float[]  $values
-     * @return array{slope: float, r_squared: float}
+     * Range: 0 (full disagreement) → 1 (unanimous).
+     *
+     * @param  array<string, array{confidence: float, direction: string, enabled: bool}>  $signals
+     * @param  array<string, float>  $weights
      */
-    private function linearRegression(array $values): array
+    private function computeAgreement(array $signals, array $weights, string $finalDirection): float
     {
-        $n = count($values);
-        if ($n < 2) {
-            return ['slope' => 0.0, 'r_squared' => 0.0];
+        $finalDir = match ($finalDirection) {
+            'up' => 1,
+            'down' => -1,
+            default => 0,
+        };
+
+        $credit = 0.0;
+        $maxCredit = 0.0;
+
+        foreach ($weights as $key => $weight) {
+            $signal = $signals[$key] ?? null;
+            if (! $signal || ! $signal['enabled']) {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            $maxCredit += $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
+
+            $signalDir = match ($signal['direction']) {
+                'up' => 1,
+                'down' => -1,
+                default => 0,
+            };
+
+            if ($signalDir === $finalDir) {
+                $credit += $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
+            } elseif ($signalDir === 0 || $finalDir === 0) {
+                $credit += 0.5 * $signal['confidence'] * $weight;
+            }
         }
 
-        $xMean = ($n - 1) / 2.0;
-        $yMean = array_sum($values) / $n;
-
-        $numerator = 0.0;
-        $denominator = 0.0;
-
-        foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
-            $x = $i - $xMean;
-            $numerator += $x * ($y - $yMean);
-            $denominator += $x * $x;
-        }
-
-        $slope = $denominator > 0.0 ? $numerator / $denominator : 0.0;
-
-        $ssRes = 0.0;
-        $ssTot = 0.0;
-        foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
-            $predicted = $yMean + $slope * ($i - $xMean);
-            $ssRes += ($y - $predicted) ** 2;
-            $ssTot += ($y - $yMean) ** 2;
-        }
-
-        $rSquared = $ssTot > 0.0 ? max(0.0, 1.0 - ($ssRes / $ssTot)) : 0.0;
-
-        return ['slope' => $slope, 'r_squared' => $rSquared];
+        return $maxCredit > 0.0 ? $credit / $maxCredit : 0.0;
     }
 
-    private function buildReasoning(string $direction, float $slope, array $trend, array $brandBehaviour): string
+    /**
+     * Yesterday / today / tomorrow snapshot + last-7-days series.
+     * Regional (50km) when coordinates are given, with national fallback when
+     * regional data is empty.
+     *
+     * @return array{
+     *   yesterday_avg: ?float,
+     *   today_avg: float,
+     *   tomorrow_estimated_avg: ?float,
+     *   yesterday_today_delta_pence: ?float,
+     *   last_7_days_series: array<int, array{date: string, avg: float}>,
+     *   last_7_days_change_pence: ?float,
+     *   cheapest_day: ?array{date: string, avg: float},
+     *   priciest_day: ?array{date: string, avg: float},
+     *   is_regional: bool
+     * }
+     */
+    private function computeWeeklySummary(FuelType $fuelType, ?float $lat, ?float $lng, float $todayAvg, float $slope): array
+    {
+        $yesterdayAvg = $this->getDailyAverage($fuelType, now()->subDay(), $lat, $lng);
+        [$series, $usedRegional] = $this->getDailySeries($fuelType, 7, $lat, $lng);
+
+        $tomorrowEstimated = $todayAvg > 0.0 ? round($todayAvg + $slope, 1) : null;
+        $yesterdayTodayDelta = $yesterdayAvg !== null ? round($todayAvg - $yesterdayAvg, 1) : null;
+
+        $cheapestDay = null;
+        $priciestDay = null;
+        $weekChange = null;
+
+        if (count($series) >= 2) {
+            $byPrice = $series;
+            usort($byPrice, fn ($a, $b) => $a['avg'] <=> $b['avg']);
+            $cheapestDay = $byPrice[0];
+            $priciestDay = $byPrice[count($byPrice) - 1];
+            $weekChange = round(end($series)['avg'] - $series[0]['avg'], 1);
+        }
+
+        return [
+            'yesterday_avg' => $yesterdayAvg,
+            'today_avg' => $todayAvg,
+            'tomorrow_estimated_avg' => $tomorrowEstimated,
+            'yesterday_today_delta_pence' => $yesterdayTodayDelta,
+            'last_7_days_series' => $series,
+            'last_7_days_change_pence' => $weekChange,
+            'cheapest_day' => $cheapestDay,
+            'priciest_day' => $priciestDay,
+            'is_regional' => $usedRegional,
+        ];
+    }
+
+    private function getDailyAverage(FuelType $fuelType, CarbonInterface $date, ?float $lat, ?float $lng): ?float
+    {
+        $dateString = $date->toDateString();
+
+        if ($lat !== null && $lng !== null) {
+            [$radiusSql, $radiusBindings] = HaversineQuery::withinKm($lat, $lng, 50);
+
+            $regional = DB::table('station_prices')
+                ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
+                ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
+                ->whereDate('station_prices.price_effective_at', $dateString)
+                ->whereRaw($radiusSql, $radiusBindings)
+                ->avg('station_prices.price_pence');
+
+            if ($regional !== null) {
+                return round((float) $regional / 100, 1);
+            }
+        }
+
+        $national = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
+            ->whereDate('price_effective_at', $dateString)
+            ->avg('price_pence');
+
+        return $national !== null ? round((float) $national / 100, 1) : null;
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @return array{0: array<int, array{date: string, avg: float}>, 1: bool}
+     */
+    private function getDailySeries(FuelType $fuelType, int $days, ?float $lat, ?float $lng): array
+    {
+        $rows = collect();
+        $usedRegional = false;
+
+        if ($lat !== null && $lng !== null) {
+            [$radiusSql, $radiusBindings] = HaversineQuery::withinKm($lat, $lng, 50);
+
+            $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+                ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
+                ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
+                ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays($days)->startOfDay())
+                ->whereRaw($radiusSql, $radiusBindings)
+                ->selectRaw('DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
+                ->groupBy('day')
+                ->orderBy('day')
+                ->get();
+
+            $usedRegional = $rows->isNotEmpty();
+        }
+
+        if ($rows->isEmpty()) {
+            $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+                ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType->value)
+                ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays($days)->startOfDay())
+                ->selectRaw('DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price')
+                ->groupBy('day')
+                ->orderBy('day')
+                ->get();
+        }
+
+        $series = $rows->map(fn ($r): array => [
+            'date' => (string) $r->day,
+            'avg' => round((float) $r->avg_price / 100, 1),
+        ])->values()->all();
+
+        return [$series, $usedRegional];
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @param  array{enabled: bool, detail: string, direction: string}  $trend
+     * @param  array{enabled: bool, detail: string, direction: string}  $brandBehaviour
+     * @param  array{enabled: bool, detail: string, direction: string}  $dayOfWeek
+     */
+    private function buildReasoning(string $direction, float $slope, array $trend, array $brandBehaviour, array $dayOfWeek): string
     {
         $parts = [];
 
@@ -503,8 +397,16 @@ class NationalFuelPredictionService
             $parts[] = $brandBehaviour['detail'];
         }
 
+        if ($dayOfWeek['enabled']) {
+            $parts[] = $dayOfWeek['detail'];
+        }
+
         if (empty($parts)) {
-            return 'No clear pattern — fill up at the cheapest station near you now.';
+            return match ($direction) {
+                'up' => 'Mild upward signals — top up soon if you\'re nearby.',
+                'down' => 'Mild downward signals — wait a day or two if your tank can hold.',
+                default => 'No clear pattern — fill up at the cheapest station near you now.',
+            };
         }
 
         return implode(' ', $parts);

app/Services/PlanFeatures.php

@@ -6,32 +6,17 @@ use App\Models\NotificationLog;
 use App\Models\Plan;
 use App\Models\User;
 use App\Models\UserNotificationPreference;
-use Throwable;
 
 final class PlanFeatures
 {
+    /** @var string[] */
+    private const array CHANNELS = ['email', 'push', 'whatsapp', 'sms'];
+
     private Plan $plan;
 
     private function __construct(private readonly User $user)
     {
-        try {
-            $this->plan = Plan::resolveForUser($user);
-        } catch (Throwable) {
-            // Never throw — fall back to a free-tier stub if resolution fails.
-            $this->plan = new Plan([
-                'name' => 'free',
-                'features' => [
-                    'fuel_types' => ['max' => 1],
-                    'email' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'weekly_digest'],
-                    'push' => ['enabled' => false, 'frequency' => 'none'],
-                    'whatsapp' => ['enabled' => false, 'daily_limit' => 0, 'scheduled_updates' => 0],
-                    'sms' => ['enabled' => false, 'daily_limit' => 0],
-                    'ai_predictions' => false,
-                    'price_threshold' => false,
-                    'score_alerts' => false,
-                ],
-            ]);
-        }
+        $this->plan = Plan::resolveForUser($user);
     }
 
     public static function for(User $user): self
@@ -47,10 +32,9 @@ final class PlanFeatures
      */
     public function channelsFor(string $triggerType): array
     {
-        $allChannels = ['email', 'push', 'whatsapp', 'sms'];
         $allowed = [];
 
-        foreach ($allChannels as $channel) {
+        foreach (self::CHANNELS as $channel) {
             if (! $this->canUseChannel($channel)) {
                 continue;
             }
@@ -72,24 +56,7 @@ final class PlanFeatures
     /** Whether the plan allows this channel at all. */
     public function canUseChannel(string $channel): bool
     {
-        return (bool) ($this->feature($channel, 'enabled') ?? false);
-    }
-
-    /** Read a nested feature value, e.g. feature('sms', 'daily_limit'). */
-    private function feature(string $channel, string $key): mixed
-    {
-        $features = $this->plan->features ?? [];
-
-        return $features[$channel][$key] ?? null;
-    }
-
-    /** Whether the user has opted in to this channel for at least one fuel type. */
-    private function userHasEnabledChannel(string $channel): bool
-    {
-        return UserNotificationPreference::where('user_id', $this->user->id)
-            ->where('channel', $channel)
-            ->where('enabled', true)
-            ->exists();
+        return (bool) $this->plan->{"{$channel}_enabled"};
     }
 
     /**
@@ -102,9 +69,9 @@ final class PlanFeatures
             return false;
         }
 
-        $dailyLimit = $this->feature($channel, 'daily_limit');
+        $dailyLimit = $this->dailyLimit($channel);
 
-        // null or 0 in the feature means no SMS/unlimited — treat 0 as blocked, null as unlimited
+        // null = unlimited; 0 = blocked even though enabled
         if ($dailyLimit === null) {
             return true;
         }
@@ -131,9 +98,6 @@ final class PlanFeatures
             return true;
         }
 
-        $count = $this->trackedFuelTypeCount();
-
-        // Allow if already tracking this type (not adding a new one)
         $alreadyTracking = UserNotificationPreference::where('user_id', $this->user->id)
             ->where('fuel_type', $fuelType)
             ->exists();
@@ -142,15 +106,13 @@ final class PlanFeatures
             return true;
         }
 
-        return $count < $limit;
+        return $this->trackedFuelTypeCount() < $limit;
     }
 
     /** Maximum fuel types allowed, or null for unlimited. */
     public function fuelTypeLimit(): ?int
     {
-        $features = $this->plan->features ?? [];
-
-        return $features['fuel_types']['max'] ?? 1;
+        return $this->plan->max_fuel_types;
     }
 
     /** Count of distinct fuel types the user has preferences for. */
@@ -164,9 +126,7 @@ final class PlanFeatures
     /** Generic boolean feature flag check. */
     public function can(string $feature): bool
     {
-        $features = $this->plan->features ?? [];
-
-        return (bool) ($features[$feature] ?? false);
+        return (bool) ($this->plan->{$feature} ?? false);
     }
 
     /** Count of notifications missed today on a channel. */
@@ -193,7 +153,7 @@ final class PlanFeatures
     /** The resolved plan tier name. */
     public function tier(): string
     {
-        return $this->plan->name ?? 'free';
+        return $this->plan->name;
     }
 
     /** User-facing display label for the resolved tier (e.g. basic → "Daily"). */
@@ -201,4 +161,23 @@ final class PlanFeatures
     {
         return $this->plan->displayName();
     }
+
+    /** Whether the user has opted in to this channel for at least one fuel type. */
+    private function userHasEnabledChannel(string $channel): bool
+    {
+        return UserNotificationPreference::where('user_id', $this->user->id)
+            ->where('channel', $channel)
+            ->where('enabled', true)
+            ->exists();
+    }
+
+    /** Per-channel daily limit. Null on email/push (no cap), int on whatsapp/sms. */
+    private function dailyLimit(string $channel): ?int
+    {
+        return match ($channel) {
+            'whatsapp' => $this->plan->whatsapp_daily_limit,
+            'sms' => $this->plan->sms_daily_limit,
+            default => null,
+        };
+    }
 }

app/Services/PostcodeService.php

@@ -2,6 +2,8 @@
 
 namespace App\Services;
 
+use App\Models\Outcode;
+use App\Models\Postcode;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Cache;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Http;
 use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Log;
@@ -24,7 +26,16 @@ class PostcodeService
     public function resolve(string $query): ?LocationResult
     {
         $query = trim($query);
-        $cacheKey = 'postcode:'.strtolower(preg_replace('/\s+/', '', $query));
+
+        if ($this->isFullPostcode($query)) {
+            return $this->lookupLocalPostcode($query) ?? $this->lookupPostcode($query);
+        }
+
+        if ($this->isOutcode($query)) {
+            return $this->lookupLocalOutcode($query) ?? $this->lookupOutcode($query);
+        }
+
+        $cacheKey = 'place:'.strtolower(preg_replace('/\s+/', '', $query));
 
         $cached = Cache::get($cacheKey);
 
@@ -32,11 +43,7 @@ class PostcodeService
             return $cached;
         }
 
-        $result = match (true) {
-            $this->isFullPostcode($query) => $this->lookupPostcode($query),
-            $this->isOutcode($query) => $this->lookupOutcode($query),
-            default => $this->lookupPlace($query),
-        };
+        $result = $this->lookupPlace($query);
 
         if ($result !== null) {
             Cache::put($cacheKey, $result, self::CACHE_TTL);
@@ -45,6 +52,11 @@ class PostcodeService
         return $result;
     }
 
+    private function normalisePostcode(string $value): string
+    {
+        return strtoupper(preg_replace('/\s+/', '', $value));
+    }
+
     private function isFullPostcode(string $query): bool
     {
         return (bool) preg_match('/^[A-Z]{1,2}[0-9][0-9A-Z]?\s*[0-9][A-Z]{2}$/i', $query);
@@ -55,9 +67,55 @@ class PostcodeService
         return (bool) preg_match('/^[A-Z]{1,2}[0-9][0-9A-Z]?$/i', $query);
     }
 
+    private function lookupLocalPostcode(string $postcode): ?LocationResult
+    {
+        $normalised = $this->normalisePostcode($postcode);
+
+        $row = Postcode::find($normalised);
+
+        if ($row === null) {
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        return new LocationResult(
+            query: $postcode,
+            displayName: $this->formatPostcode($normalised),
+            lat: $row->lat,
+            lng: $row->lng,
+        );
+    }
+
+    private function lookupLocalOutcode(string $outcode): ?LocationResult
+    {
+        $normalised = strtoupper(trim($outcode));
+
+        $row = Outcode::find($normalised);
+
+        if ($row === null) {
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        return new LocationResult(
+            query: $outcode,
+            displayName: $normalised,
+            lat: $row->lat,
+            lng: $row->lng,
+        );
+    }
+
+    private function formatPostcode(string $normalised): string
+    {
+        // Insert the single space before the last 3 chars ("SW1A1AA" -> "SW1A 1AA").
+        if (strlen($normalised) < 5) {
+            return $normalised;
+        }
+
+        return substr($normalised, 0, -3).' '.substr($normalised, -3);
+    }
+
     private function lookupPostcode(string $postcode): ?LocationResult
     {
-        $normalised = strtoupper(preg_replace('/\s+/', '', $postcode));
+        $normalised = $this->normalisePostcode($postcode);
         $url = self::BASE_URL.'/postcodes/'.$normalised;
 
         try {
@@ -69,12 +127,34 @@ class PostcodeService
 
             $data = $response->json('result');
 
-            return new LocationResult(
+            if (! is_array($data) || ! isset($data['postcode'], $data['latitude'], $data['longitude'])) {
+                return null;
+            }
+
+            $result = new LocationResult(
                 query: $postcode,
                 displayName: $data['postcode'],
                 lat: $data['latitude'],
                 lng: $data['longitude'],
             );
+
+            try {
+                Postcode::updateOrCreate(
+                    ['postcode' => $normalised],
+                    [
+                        'outcode' => substr($normalised, 0, strlen($normalised) - 3),
+                        'lat' => $data['latitude'],
+                        'lng' => $data['longitude'],
+                    ],
+                );
+            } catch (Throwable $e) {
+                Log::warning('PostcodeService: failed to persist postcode after HTTP fallback', [
+                    'postcode' => $normalised,
+                    'error' => $e->getMessage(),
+                ]);
+            }
+
+            return $result;
         } catch (Throwable $e) {
             Log::error('PostcodeService: postcode lookup failed', [
                 'postcode' => $postcode,
@@ -99,12 +179,33 @@ class PostcodeService
 
             $data = $response->json('result');
 
-            return new LocationResult(
+            if (! is_array($data) || ! isset($data['outcode'], $data['latitude'], $data['longitude'])) {
+                return null;
+            }
+
+            $result = new LocationResult(
                 query: $outcode,
                 displayName: $data['outcode'],
                 lat: $data['latitude'],
                 lng: $data['longitude'],
             );
+
+            try {
+                Outcode::updateOrCreate(
+                    ['outcode' => $normalised],
+                    [
+                        'lat' => $data['latitude'],
+                        'lng' => $data['longitude'],
+                    ],
+                );
+            } catch (Throwable $e) {
+                Log::warning('PostcodeService: failed to persist outcode after HTTP fallback', [
+                    'outcode' => $normalised,
+                    'error' => $e->getMessage(),
+                ]);
+            }
+
+            return $result;
         } catch (Throwable $e) {
             Log::error('PostcodeService: outcode lookup failed', [
                 'outcode' => $outcode,

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/AbstractSignal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+abstract class AbstractSignal implements Signal
+{
+    /** @return array{score: 0.0, confidence: 0.0, direction: 'stable', detail: string, data_points: 0, enabled: false} */
+    protected function disabledSignal(string $detail): array
+    {
+        return [
+            'score' => 0.0,
+            'confidence' => 0.0,
+            'direction' => 'stable',
+            'detail' => $detail,
+            'data_points' => 0,
+            'enabled' => false,
+        ];
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Least-squares linear regression. x = array index, y = value.
+     *
+     * @param  float[]  $values
+     * @return array{slope: float, r_squared: float}
+     */
+    protected function linearRegression(array $values): array
+    {
+        $n = count($values);
+
+        if ($n < 2) {
+            return ['slope' => 0.0, 'r_squared' => 0.0];
+        }
+
+        $xMean = ($n - 1) / 2.0;
+        $yMean = array_sum($values) / $n;
+
+        $numerator = 0.0;
+        $denominator = 0.0;
+
+        foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
+            $x = $i - $xMean;
+            $numerator += $x * ($y - $yMean);
+            $denominator += $x * $x;
+        }
+
+        $slope = $denominator > 0.0 ? $numerator / $denominator : 0.0;
+
+        $ssRes = 0.0;
+        $ssTot = 0.0;
+
+        foreach ($values as $i => $y) {
+            $predicted = $yMean + $slope * ($i - $xMean);
+            $ssRes += ($y - $predicted) ** 2;
+            $ssTot += ($y - $yMean) ** 2;
+        }
+
+        $rSquared = $ssTot > 0.0 ? max(0.0, 1.0 - ($ssRes / $ssTot)) : 0.0;
+
+        return ['slope' => $slope, 'r_squared' => $rSquared];
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/BrandBehaviourSignal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class BrandBehaviourSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
+            ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+            ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(7))
+            ->selectRaw('stations.is_supermarket, DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
+            ->groupBy('stations.is_supermarket', 'day')
+            ->orderBy('day')
+            ->get();
+
+        $supermarket = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 1)->values();
+        $major = $rows->where('is_supermarket', 0)->values();
+
+        if ($supermarket->count() < 2 || $major->count() < 2) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient brand data for comparison');
+        }
+
+        $supermarketSlope = $this->linearRegression($supermarket->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
+        $majorSlope = $this->linearRegression($major->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all())['slope'];
+
+        $divergence = round(abs($supermarketSlope - $majorSlope) * 7, 1);
+        $supermarketChange = round($supermarketSlope * 7, 1);
+        $majorChange = round($majorSlope * 7, 1);
+
+        if ($divergence < 1.0) {
+            return [
+                'score' => 0.0,
+                'confidence' => 0.5,
+                'direction' => 'stable',
+                'detail' => 'Supermarkets and majors moving in sync.',
+                'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+                'enabled' => true,
+            ];
+        }
+
+        $leaderChange = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? $supermarketChange : $majorChange;
+        $direction = $leaderChange > 0 ? 'up' : 'down';
+        $leader = abs($supermarketChange) > abs($majorChange) ? 'Supermarkets' : 'Majors';
+        $follower = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? 'majors' : 'supermarkets';
+        $leaderAbs = abs($leaderChange);
+        $followerChange = $leader === 'Supermarkets' ? abs($majorChange) : abs($supermarketChange);
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0,
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $divergence / 5.0),
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => "{$leader} ".($leaderChange > 0 ? 'rose' : 'fell')." {$leaderAbs}p vs {$follower} {$followerChange}p (divergence: {$divergence}p). Expect {$follower} to follow.",
+            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/DayOfWeekSignal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class DayOfWeekSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    private const int MIN_DAYS = 21;
+
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        $dowExpr = DbDialect::dayOfWeekExpr('price_effective_at');
+
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->where('fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+            ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(90))
+            ->selectRaw("{$dowExpr} as dow, DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price")
+            ->groupBy('dow', 'day')
+            ->get();
+
+        $uniqueDays = $rows->pluck('day')->unique()->count();
+
+        if ($uniqueDays < self::MIN_DAYS) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal("Insufficient history for day-of-week pattern ({$uniqueDays} days, need ".self::MIN_DAYS.')');
+        }
+
+        $dowAverages = $rows->groupBy('dow')->map(fn ($g) => $g->avg('avg_price'));
+        $weekAvg = $dowAverages->avg();
+        $todayDow = (int) now()->format('w') + 1; // PHP 0=Sun → MySQL 1=Sun
+        $todayAvg = $dowAverages->get($todayDow, $weekAvg);
+        $cheapestDow = $dowAverages->keys()->sortBy(fn ($k) => $dowAverages[$k])->first();
+        $dayNames = ['Sun', 'Mon', 'Tue', 'Wed', 'Thu', 'Fri', 'Sat'];
+        $todayName = $dayNames[($todayDow - 1) % 7] ?? 'Today';
+        $tomorrowName = $dayNames[$todayDow % 7] ?? 'Tomorrow';
+
+        $todayDeltaPence = round(($todayAvg - $weekAvg) / 100, 1);
+        $tomorrowDeltaPence = round(($dowAverages->get(($todayDow % 7) + 1, $weekAvg) - $todayAvg) / 100, 1);
+
+        $direction = match (true) {
+            ($todayAvg - $weekAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'up',
+            ($weekAvg - $todayAvg) / 100 >= 1.5 => 'down',
+            default => 'stable',
+        };
+
+        $score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 1.0 : -1.0);
+
+        $parts = [];
+        $parts[] = abs($todayDeltaPence) < 0.1
+            ? "Today ({$todayName}) is typically in line with the weekly average."
+            : sprintf(
+                'Today (%s) is typically %sp %s the weekly average.',
+                $todayName,
+                number_format(abs($todayDeltaPence), 1),
+                $todayDeltaPence > 0 ? 'above' : 'below',
+            );
+
+        $parts[] = abs($tomorrowDeltaPence) < 0.1
+            ? "Tomorrow ({$tomorrowName}) is typically the same."
+            : sprintf(
+                'Tomorrow (%s) is typically %sp %s.',
+                $tomorrowName,
+                number_format(abs($tomorrowDeltaPence), 1),
+                $tomorrowDeltaPence < 0 ? 'cheaper' : 'pricier',
+            );
+
+        if ($cheapestDow === $todayDow) {
+            $parts[] = 'Today is historically the cheapest day of the week.';
+        }
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $score,
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $uniqueDays / 90),
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => implode(' ', $parts),
+            'data_points' => $uniqueDays,
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/DbDialect.php

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+/**
+ * SQL dialect helpers for the small set of MySQL/SQLite differences the
+ * signal classes care about. Centralises the isSqlite ternaries that were
+ * duplicated across DayOfWeekSignal and StickinessSignal.
+ */
+final class DbDialect
+{
+    private static function isSqlite(): bool
+    {
+        return DB::connection()->getDriverName() === 'sqlite';
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Day-of-week expression returning 1=Sun..7=Sat (MySQL DAYOFWEEK convention).
+     * Targets a column on the queried table.
+     */
+    public static function dayOfWeekExpr(string $column): string
+    {
+        return self::isSqlite()
+            ? "(CAST(strftime('%w', {$column}) AS INTEGER) + 1)"
+            : "DAYOFWEEK({$column})";
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Whole-day difference between MAX and MIN of a datetime column, suitable
+     * for use in an aggregate selectRaw.
+     */
+    public static function maxMinDayDiffExpr(string $column): string
+    {
+        return self::isSqlite()
+            ? "CAST((julianday(MAX({$column})) - julianday(MIN({$column}))) AS INTEGER)"
+            : "DATEDIFF(MAX({$column}), MIN({$column}))";
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/OilSignal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class OilSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    /**
+     * Reads the most recent Brent crude prediction (LLM preferred, EWMA
+     * fallback) covering today or later. Sourced from price_predictions,
+     * which OilPriceService populates daily.
+     */
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        $prediction = null;
+
+        foreach (['llm_with_context', 'llm', 'ewma'] as $source) {
+            $prediction = DB::table('price_predictions')
+                ->where('source', $source)
+                ->where('predicted_for', '>=', now()->toDateString())
+                ->orderByDesc('predicted_for')
+                ->orderByDesc('generated_at')
+                ->first();
+
+            if ($prediction !== null) {
+                break;
+            }
+        }
+
+        if ($prediction === null) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('No oil price prediction available');
+        }
+
+        $direction = match ($prediction->direction) {
+            'rising' => 'up',
+            'falling' => 'down',
+            default => 'stable',
+        };
+
+        $score = match ($direction) {
+            'up' => 1.0,
+            'down' => -1.0,
+            default => 0.0,
+        };
+
+        $confidence = round(((float) $prediction->confidence) / 100, 2);
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $score,
+            'confidence' => $confidence,
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => sprintf(
+                'Brent crude %s (%s, %d%% confidence)',
+                $prediction->direction,
+                $prediction->source,
+                (int) $prediction->confidence,
+            ),
+            'data_points' => 1,
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/RegionalMomentumSignal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use App\Services\HaversineQuery;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class RegionalMomentumSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    private const float SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE = 0.3;
+
+    private const float REGIONAL_RADIUS_KM = 50.0;
+
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        if (! $context->hasCoordinates()) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('No coordinates provided for regional momentum analysis');
+        }
+
+        [$radiusSql, $radiusBindings] = HaversineQuery::withinKm($context->lat, $context->lng, self::REGIONAL_RADIUS_KM);
+
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->join('stations', 'station_prices.station_id', '=', 'stations.node_id')
+            ->where('station_prices.fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+            ->where('station_prices.price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(14))
+            ->whereRaw($radiusSql, $radiusBindings)
+            ->selectRaw('DATE(station_prices.price_effective_at) as day, AVG(station_prices.price_pence) as avg_price')
+            ->groupBy('day')
+            ->orderBy('day')
+            ->get();
+
+        if ($rows->count() < 3) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient regional data');
+        }
+
+        $regression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all());
+        $direction = match (true) {
+            $regression['slope'] >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
+            $regression['slope'] <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
+            default => 'stable',
+        };
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : ($direction === 'up' ? 0.7 : -0.7),
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $regression['r_squared']),
+            'direction' => $direction,
+            'detail' => 'Regional trend: '.round($regression['slope'], 2).'p/day (R²='.round($regression['r_squared'], 2).')',
+            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/Signal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+interface Signal
+{
+    /**
+     * Evaluate the signal against the given context.
+     *
+     * Returns the canonical signal payload. Implementations may add extra
+     * keys beyond the base shape (e.g. trend adds slope + r_squared).
+     *
+     * @return array{
+     *     score: float,
+     *     confidence: float,
+     *     direction: string,
+     *     detail: string,
+     *     data_points: int,
+     *     enabled: bool,
+     *     ...
+     * }
+     */
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array;
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/SignalContext.php

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+
+/**
+ * Inputs required to evaluate a prediction signal. Individual signals may
+ * ignore fields they don't need — for example OilSignal doesn't use fuelType,
+ * RegionalMomentumSignal requires lat/lng to be non-null.
+ */
+final readonly class SignalContext
+{
+    public function __construct(
+        public FuelType $fuelType,
+        public ?float $lat = null,
+        public ?float $lng = null,
+    ) {}
+
+    public function hasCoordinates(): bool
+    {
+        return $this->lat !== null && $this->lng !== null;
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/StickinessSignal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class StickinessSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        $diffExpr = DbDialect::maxMinDayDiffExpr('price_effective_at');
+
+        $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+            ->where('fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+            ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays(30))
+            ->selectRaw("station_id, COUNT(*) as changes, {$diffExpr} as span_days")
+            ->groupBy('station_id')
+            ->having('changes', '>', 1)
+            ->having('span_days', '>', 0)
+            ->get();
+
+        if ($rows->count() < 10) {
+            return $this->disabledSignal('Insufficient stickiness data (need 10+ stations with price history)');
+        }
+
+        $avgHoldDays = $rows->avg(fn ($r) => $r->span_days / ($r->changes - 1));
+        $avgHoldDays = round((float) $avgHoldDays, 1);
+
+        $score = match (true) {
+            $avgHoldDays < 2 => -0.1,
+            $avgHoldDays > 5 => 0.1,
+            default => 0.0,
+        };
+
+        $detail = match (true) {
+            $avgHoldDays < 2 => "Volatile prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — harder to predict.",
+            $avgHoldDays > 5 => "Sticky prices (avg hold: {$avgHoldDays} days) — more predictable.",
+            default => "Normal hold period (avg: {$avgHoldDays} days).",
+        };
+
+        return [
+            'score' => $score,
+            'confidence' => min(1.0, $rows->count() / 200),
+            'direction' => 'stable',
+            'detail' => $detail,
+            'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+            'enabled' => true,
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Services/Prediction/Signals/TrendSignal.php

@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\Prediction\Signals;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\DB;
+
+final class TrendSignal extends AbstractSignal
+{
+    private const float R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD = 0.5;
+
+    private const float SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE = 0.3;
+
+    private const float SLOPE_SATURATION_PENCE = 0.5;
+
+    private const int PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS = 7;
+
+    /** @return array{score: float, confidence: float, direction: string, detail: string, data_points: int, enabled: bool, slope: float, r_squared: float} */
+    public function compute(SignalContext $context): array
+    {
+        foreach ([5, 14] as $lookbackDays) {
+            $rows = DB::table('station_prices')
+                ->where('fuel_type', $context->fuelType->value)
+                ->where('price_effective_at', '>=', now()->subDays($lookbackDays))
+                ->selectRaw('DATE(price_effective_at) as day, AVG(price_pence) as avg_price')
+                ->groupBy('day')
+                ->orderBy('day')
+                ->get();
+
+            if ($rows->count() < 2) {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            $regression = $this->linearRegression($rows->pluck('avg_price')->map(fn ($v) => (float) $v / 100)->values()->all());
+
+            if ($regression['r_squared'] >= self::R_SQUARED_THRESHOLD) {
+                $slope = $regression['slope'];
+                $direction = match (true) {
+                    $slope >= self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'up',
+                    $slope <= -self::SLOPE_THRESHOLD_PENCE => 'down',
+                    default => 'stable',
+                };
+                $absSlope = abs($slope);
+                $score = $direction === 'stable' ? 0.0 : min(1.0, $absSlope / self::SLOPE_SATURATION_PENCE) * ($slope > 0 ? 1 : -1);
+                $projected = round($slope * $lookbackDays, 1);
+                $detail = $direction === 'stable'
+                    ? "Prices flat over {$lookbackDays} days (slope: {$slope}p/day, R²={$regression['r_squared']})"
+                    : sprintf(
+                        '%s at %sp/day over %d days (R²=%s, ~%s%sp in %dd)',
+                        $slope > 0 ? 'Rising' : 'Falling',
+                        abs(round($slope, 2)),
+                        $lookbackDays,
+                        round($regression['r_squared'], 2),
+                        $projected > 0 ? '+' : '',
+                        $projected,
+                        self::PREDICTION_HORIZON_DAYS,
+                    );
+
+                if ($lookbackDays === 5) {
+                    $detail .= ' [Adaptive lookback active]';
+                }
+
+                return [
+                    'score' => $score,
+                    'confidence' => min(1.0, $regression['r_squared']),
+                    'direction' => $direction,
+                    'detail' => $detail,
+                    'data_points' => $rows->count(),
+                    'enabled' => true,
+                    'slope' => round($slope, 3),
+                    'r_squared' => round($regression['r_squared'], 3),
+                ];
+            }
+        }
+
+        return [
+            'score' => 0.0,
+            'confidence' => 0.0,
+            'direction' => 'stable',
+            'detail' => 'Insufficient price history or noisy data (R² below threshold)',
+            'data_points' => 0,
+            'enabled' => false,
+            'slope' => 0.0,
+            'r_squared' => 0.0,
+        ];
+    }
+}

app/Services/StationSearch/SearchCriteria.php

@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\StationSearch;
+
+use App\Enums\FuelType;
+
+final readonly class SearchCriteria
+{
+    public function __construct(
+        public float $lat,
+        public float $lng,
+        public FuelType $fuelType,
+        public float $radiusKm,
+        public string $sort,
+    ) {}
+}

app/Services/StationSearch/SearchResult.php

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\StationSearch;
+
+use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
+
+final readonly class SearchResult
+{
+    /**
+     * @param  Collection<int, mixed>  $stations  Sorted station rows with _updated_at/_reliability/_classification cached
+     * @param  array{lowest: ?int, highest: ?int, avg: ?float}  $pricesSummary
+     * @param  array{reliable: int, stale: int, outdated: int}  $reliabilityCounts
+     * @param  array<string, mixed>  $prediction
+     */
+    public function __construct(
+        public Collection $stations,
+        public array $pricesSummary,
+        public array $reliabilityCounts,
+        public array $prediction,
+    ) {}
+}

app/Services/StationSearch/StationSearchService.php

@@ -0,0 +1,151 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Services\StationSearch;
+
+use App\Enums\PriceClassification;
+use App\Enums\PriceReliability;
+use App\Models\Search;
+use App\Models\Station;
+use App\Models\User;
+use App\Services\HaversineQuery;
+use App\Services\NationalFuelPredictionService;
+use App\Services\PlanFeatures;
+use Illuminate\Database\Query\JoinClause;
+use Illuminate\Support\Carbon;
+use Illuminate\Support\Collection;
+
+final class StationSearchService
+{
+    public function __construct(
+        private readonly NationalFuelPredictionService $predictionService,
+    ) {}
+
+    public function search(SearchCriteria $criteria, ?User $user, ?string $ipHash): SearchResult
+    {
+        $stations = $this->fetchAndSortStations($criteria);
+        $prices = $stations->pluck('price_pence');
+
+        $this->logSearch($criteria, $stations->count(), $prices, $ipHash);
+
+        return new SearchResult(
+            stations: $stations,
+            pricesSummary: [
+                'lowest' => $prices->min(),
+                'highest' => $prices->max(),
+                'avg' => $prices->isNotEmpty() ? round($prices->avg(), 2) : null,
+            ],
+            reliabilityCounts: $this->countReliability($stations),
+            prediction: $this->buildPrediction($user, $criteria),
+        );
+    }
+
+    /** @return Collection<int, mixed> */
+    private function fetchAndSortStations(SearchCriteria $criteria): Collection
+    {
+        [$distanceSql, $distanceBindings] = HaversineQuery::distanceKm($criteria->lat, $criteria->lng);
+
+        $all = Station::query()
+            ->selectRaw(
+                "stations.*, spc.price_pence, spc.fuel_type, spc.price_effective_at, {$distanceSql} AS distance_km",
+                $distanceBindings,
+            )
+            ->join('station_prices_current as spc', function (JoinClause $join) use ($criteria): void {
+                $join->on('stations.node_id', '=', 'spc.station_id')
+                    ->where('spc.fuel_type', '=', $criteria->fuelType->value);
+            })
+            ->where('stations.temporary_closure', false)
+            ->where('stations.permanent_closure', false)
+            ->get();
+
+        // Compute reliability + classification once per row so the sort, the
+        // count groupBy, and the StationResource render all read cached
+        // values instead of re-invoking PriceReliability::fromUpdatedAt.
+        $all->each(function ($s): void {
+            $updatedAt = $s->price_effective_at ? Carbon::parse($s->price_effective_at) : null;
+            $s->_updated_at = $updatedAt;
+            $s->_reliability = PriceReliability::fromUpdatedAt($updatedAt);
+            $s->_classification = PriceClassification::fromUpdatedAt($updatedAt);
+        });
+
+        $filtered = $all->filter(fn ($s) => (float) $s->distance_km <= $criteria->radiusKm);
+
+        return $this->applySort($filtered, $criteria->sort);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @param  Collection<int, mixed>  $filtered
+     * @return Collection<int, mixed>
+     */
+    private function applySort(Collection $filtered, string $sort): Collection
+    {
+        if ($sort === 'reliable') {
+            return $filtered
+                ->sort(function ($a, $b) {
+                    return $a->_reliability->weight() <=> $b->_reliability->weight()
+                        ?: ((int) $a->price_pence <=> (int) $b->price_pence)
+                        ?: ((float) $a->distance_km <=> (float) $b->distance_km);
+                })
+                ->values();
+        }
+
+        return $filtered->sortBy(match ($sort) {
+            'price' => fn ($s) => (int) $s->price_pence,
+            'updated' => fn ($s) => $s->price_effective_at ? -strtotime($s->price_effective_at) : PHP_INT_MAX,
+            default => fn ($s) => (float) $s->distance_km,
+        })->values();
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * @param  Collection<int, mixed>  $stations
+     * @return array{reliable: int, stale: int, outdated: int}
+     */
+    private function countReliability(Collection $stations): array
+    {
+        $counts = $stations->groupBy(fn ($s) => $s->_reliability->value)->map->count();
+
+        return [
+            'reliable' => (int) $counts->get(PriceReliability::Reliable->value, 0),
+            'stale' => (int) $counts->get(PriceReliability::Stale->value, 0),
+            'outdated' => (int) $counts->get(PriceReliability::Outdated->value, 0),
+        ];
+    }
+
+    /** @param  Collection<int, mixed>  $prices */
+    private function logSearch(SearchCriteria $criteria, int $resultsCount, Collection $prices, ?string $ipHash): void
+    {
+        Search::create([
+            'lat_bucket' => round($criteria->lat, 2),
+            'lng_bucket' => round($criteria->lng, 2),
+            'fuel_type' => $criteria->fuelType->value,
+            'results_count' => $resultsCount,
+            'lowest_pence' => $prices->min(),
+            'highest_pence' => $prices->max(),
+            'avg_pence' => $prices->isNotEmpty() ? round($prices->avg(), 2) : null,
+            'searched_at' => now(),
+            'ip_hash' => $ipHash ?? hash('sha256', ''),
+        ]);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Free/guest users get a stripped teaser; users with the ai_predictions
+     * feature get the full multi-signal payload.
+     *
+     * @return array<string, mixed>
+     */
+    private function buildPrediction(?User $user, SearchCriteria $criteria): array
+    {
+        $result = $this->predictionService->predict($criteria->lat, $criteria->lng);
+
+        $canSeeFull = $user !== null && PlanFeatures::for($user)->can('ai_predictions');
+
+        if (! $canSeeFull) {
+            return [
+                'fuel_type' => $result['fuel_type'],
+                'predicted_direction' => $result['predicted_direction'],
+                'tier_locked' => true,
+            ];
+        }
+
+        return $result;
+    }
+}

config/services.php

@@ -72,6 +72,18 @@ return [
         'api_key' => env('FUELALERT_API_KEY'),
     ],
 
+    'onesignal' => [
+        'app_id' => env('ONESIGNAL_APP_ID'),
+        'api_key' => env('ONESIGNAL_API_KEY'),
+    ],
+
+    'vonage' => [
+        'key' => env('VONAGE_KEY'),
+        'secret' => env('VONAGE_SECRET'),
+        'whatsapp_from' => env('VONAGE_WHATSAPP_FROM'),
+        'sms_from' => env('VONAGE_SMS_FROM', 'FuelAlert'),
+    ],
+
     'stripe' => [
         'prices' => [
             'basic' => [

database/factories/PlanFactory.php

@@ -11,23 +11,25 @@ use Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Factories\Factory;
  */
 class PlanFactory extends Factory
 {
-    private static array $defaultFeatures = [
-        'fuel_types' => ['max' => 1],
-        'email' => ['enabled' => false, 'frequency' => 'weekly_digest'],
-        'push' => ['enabled' => false, 'frequency' => 'none'],
-        'whatsapp' => ['enabled' => false, 'daily_limit' => 0, 'scheduled_updates' => 0],
-        'sms' => ['enabled' => false, 'daily_limit' => 0],
-        'ai_predictions' => false,
-        'price_threshold' => false,
-        'score_alerts' => false,
-    ];
-
     public function definition(): array
     {
         return [
             'name' => PlanTier::Free->value,
-            'stripe_price_id' => null,
-            'features' => self::$defaultFeatures,
+            'stripe_price_id_monthly' => null,
+            'stripe_price_id_annual' => null,
+            'max_fuel_types' => 1,
+            'email_enabled' => true,
+            'email_frequency' => 'weekly_digest',
+            'push_enabled' => false,
+            'push_frequency' => 'none',
+            'whatsapp_enabled' => false,
+            'whatsapp_daily_limit' => 0,
+            'whatsapp_scheduled_updates' => 0,
+            'sms_enabled' => false,
+            'sms_daily_limit' => 0,
+            'ai_predictions' => false,
+            'price_threshold' => false,
+            'score_alerts' => false,
             'active' => true,
         ];
     }
@@ -36,8 +38,8 @@ class PlanFactory extends Factory
     {
         return $this->state(fn () => [
             'name' => PlanTier::Free->value,
-            'stripe_price_id' => null,
-            'features' => self::$defaultFeatures,
+            'stripe_price_id_monthly' => null,
+            'stripe_price_id_annual' => null,
         ]);
     }
 
@@ -45,17 +47,21 @@ class PlanFactory extends Factory
     {
         return $this->state(fn () => [
             'name' => PlanTier::Basic->value,
-            'stripe_price_id' => 'price_basic_test',
-            'features' => [
-                'fuel_types' => ['max' => 1],
-                'email' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'daily'],
-                'push' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'daily'],
-                'whatsapp' => ['enabled' => true, 'daily_limit' => 5, 'scheduled_updates' => 2],
-                'sms' => ['enabled' => false, 'daily_limit' => 0],
-                'ai_predictions' => false,
-                'price_threshold' => true,
-                'score_alerts' => true,
-            ],
+            'stripe_price_id_monthly' => 'price_basic_monthly_test',
+            'stripe_price_id_annual' => 'price_basic_annual_test',
+            'max_fuel_types' => 1,
+            'email_enabled' => true,
+            'email_frequency' => 'daily',
+            'push_enabled' => true,
+            'push_frequency' => 'daily',
+            'whatsapp_enabled' => true,
+            'whatsapp_daily_limit' => 5,
+            'whatsapp_scheduled_updates' => 2,
+            'sms_enabled' => false,
+            'sms_daily_limit' => 0,
+            'ai_predictions' => false,
+            'price_threshold' => true,
+            'score_alerts' => true,
         ]);
     }
 
@@ -63,17 +69,21 @@ class PlanFactory extends Factory
     {
         return $this->state(fn () => [
             'name' => PlanTier::Plus->value,
-            'stripe_price_id' => 'price_plus_test',
-            'features' => [
-                'fuel_types' => ['max' => 1],
-                'email' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'triggered'],
-                'push' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'triggered'],
-                'whatsapp' => ['enabled' => true, 'daily_limit' => 5, 'scheduled_updates' => 2],
-                'sms' => ['enabled' => true, 'daily_limit' => 1],
-                'ai_predictions' => true,
-                'price_threshold' => true,
-                'score_alerts' => true,
-            ],
+            'stripe_price_id_monthly' => 'price_plus_monthly_test',
+            'stripe_price_id_annual' => 'price_plus_annual_test',
+            'max_fuel_types' => 1,
+            'email_enabled' => true,
+            'email_frequency' => 'triggered',
+            'push_enabled' => true,
+            'push_frequency' => 'triggered',
+            'whatsapp_enabled' => true,
+            'whatsapp_daily_limit' => 5,
+            'whatsapp_scheduled_updates' => 2,
+            'sms_enabled' => true,
+            'sms_daily_limit' => 1,
+            'ai_predictions' => true,
+            'price_threshold' => true,
+            'score_alerts' => true,
         ]);
     }
 
@@ -81,17 +91,21 @@ class PlanFactory extends Factory
     {
         return $this->state(fn () => [
             'name' => PlanTier::Pro->value,
-            'stripe_price_id' => 'price_pro_test',
-            'features' => [
-                'fuel_types' => ['max' => null],
-                'email' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'triggered'],
-                'push' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'triggered'],
-                'whatsapp' => ['enabled' => true, 'daily_limit' => 5, 'scheduled_updates' => 2],
-                'sms' => ['enabled' => true, 'daily_limit' => 3],
-                'ai_predictions' => true,
-                'price_threshold' => true,
-                'score_alerts' => true,
-            ],
+            'stripe_price_id_monthly' => 'price_pro_monthly_test',
+            'stripe_price_id_annual' => 'price_pro_annual_test',
+            'max_fuel_types' => null,
+            'email_enabled' => true,
+            'email_frequency' => 'triggered',
+            'push_enabled' => true,
+            'push_frequency' => 'triggered',
+            'whatsapp_enabled' => true,
+            'whatsapp_daily_limit' => 5,
+            'whatsapp_scheduled_updates' => 2,
+            'sms_enabled' => true,
+            'sms_daily_limit' => 3,
+            'ai_predictions' => true,
+            'price_threshold' => true,
+            'score_alerts' => true,
         ]);
     }
 }

database/migrations/2026_04_22_100000_create_postcodes_table.php

@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+<?php
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Migrations\Migration;
+use Illuminate\Database\Schema\Blueprint;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schema;
+
+return new class extends Migration
+{
+    public function up(): void
+    {
+        Schema::create('postcodes', function (Blueprint $table): void {
+            $table->string('postcode', 7)->primary()->comment('Normalised: uppercase, no spaces');
+            $table->string('outcode', 4)->index();
+            $table->decimal('lat', 10, 7);
+            $table->decimal('lng', 10, 7);
+        });
+    }
+
+    public function down(): void
+    {
+        Schema::dropIfExists('postcodes');
+    }
+};

database/migrations/2026_04_22_100001_create_outcodes_table.php

@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+<?php
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Migrations\Migration;
+use Illuminate\Database\Schema\Blueprint;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schema;
+
+return new class extends Migration
+{
+    public function up(): void
+    {
+        Schema::create('outcodes', function (Blueprint $table): void {
+            $table->string('outcode', 4)->primary();
+            $table->decimal('lat', 10, 7);
+            $table->decimal('lng', 10, 7);
+        });
+    }
+
+    public function down(): void
+    {
+        Schema::dropIfExists('outcodes');
+    }
+};

database/migrations/2026_04_23_092253_add_grace_period_until_to_users_table.php

@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+<?php
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Migrations\Migration;
+use Illuminate\Database\Schema\Blueprint;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schema;
+
+return new class extends Migration
+{
+    public function up(): void
+    {
+        Schema::table('users', function (Blueprint $table) {
+            $table->timestamp('grace_period_until')->nullable()->after('password')
+                ->comment('Set when invoice.payment_failed webhook fires; cleared on payment success or subscription deletion. Drives dashboard past-due banner.');
+        });
+    }
+
+    public function down(): void
+    {
+        Schema::table('users', function (Blueprint $table) {
+            $table->dropColumn('grace_period_until');
+        });
+    }
+};

database/migrations/2026_04_29_092713_add_current_period_end_to_subscriptions_table.php

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+<?php
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Migrations\Migration;
+use Illuminate\Database\Schema\Blueprint;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schema;
+
+return new class extends Migration
+{
+    public function up(): void
+    {
+        Schema::table('subscriptions', function (Blueprint $table): void {
+            $table->timestamp('current_period_start')->nullable()->after('quantity');
+            $table->timestamp('current_period_end')->nullable()->after('current_period_start');
+            $table->json('stripe_data')->nullable()->after('current_period_end');
+        });
+    }
+
+    public function down(): void
+    {
+        Schema::table('subscriptions', function (Blueprint $table): void {
+            $table->dropColumn(['current_period_start', 'current_period_end', 'stripe_data']);
+        });
+    }
+};

database/migrations/2026_04_29_164748_flatten_features_json_on_plans_table.php

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+<?php
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Migrations\Migration;
+use Illuminate\Database\Schema\Blueprint;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schema;
+
+return new class extends Migration
+{
+    public function up(): void
+    {
+        Schema::table('plans', function (Blueprint $table): void {
+            $table->unsignedTinyInteger('max_fuel_types')->nullable()->after('stripe_price_id_annual')
+                ->comment('Null = unlimited');
+
+            $table->boolean('email_enabled')->default(true)->after('max_fuel_types');
+            $table->string('email_frequency', 20)->default('weekly_digest')->after('email_enabled')
+                ->comment('weekly_digest | daily | triggered');
+
+            $table->boolean('push_enabled')->default(false)->after('email_frequency');
+            $table->string('push_frequency', 20)->default('none')->after('push_enabled')
+                ->comment('none | daily | triggered');
+
+            $table->boolean('whatsapp_enabled')->default(false)->after('push_frequency');
+            $table->unsignedSmallInteger('whatsapp_daily_limit')->default(0)->after('whatsapp_enabled');
+            $table->unsignedTinyInteger('whatsapp_scheduled_updates')->default(0)->after('whatsapp_daily_limit');
+
+            $table->boolean('sms_enabled')->default(false)->after('whatsapp_scheduled_updates');
+            $table->unsignedSmallInteger('sms_daily_limit')->default(0)->after('sms_enabled');
+
+            $table->boolean('ai_predictions')->default(false)->after('sms_daily_limit');
+            $table->boolean('price_threshold')->default(false)->after('ai_predictions');
+            $table->boolean('score_alerts')->default(false)->after('price_threshold');
+
+            $table->dropColumn('features');
+        });
+    }
+
+    public function down(): void
+    {
+        Schema::table('plans', function (Blueprint $table): void {
+            $table->json('features')->after('stripe_price_id_annual');
+
+            $table->dropColumn([
+                'max_fuel_types',
+                'email_enabled',
+                'email_frequency',
+                'push_enabled',
+                'push_frequency',
+                'whatsapp_enabled',
+                'whatsapp_daily_limit',
+                'whatsapp_scheduled_updates',
+                'sms_enabled',
+                'sms_daily_limit',
+                'ai_predictions',
+                'price_threshold',
+                'score_alerts',
+            ]);
+        });
+    }
+};

database/migrations/2026_05_01_112248_create_weekly_pump_prices_table.php

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+<?php
+
+use Illuminate\Database\Migrations\Migration;
+use Illuminate\Database\Schema\Blueprint;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Schema;
+
+return new class extends Migration
+{
+    /**
+     * Run the migrations.
+     */
+    public function up(): void
+    {
+        Schema::create('weekly_pump_prices', function (Blueprint $table) {
+            $table->date('date')->primary()->comment('Week starting (Monday) per BEIS publication');
+            $table->unsignedSmallInteger('ulsp_pence')->comment('Petrol pump price × 100');
+            $table->unsignedSmallInteger('ulsd_pence')->comment('Diesel pump price × 100');
+            $table->unsignedSmallInteger('ulsp_duty_pence')->comment('Petrol duty × 100');
+            $table->unsignedSmallInteger('ulsd_duty_pence')->comment('Diesel duty × 100');
+            $table->unsignedTinyInteger('ulsp_vat_pct')->comment('VAT %');
+            $table->unsignedTinyInteger('ulsd_vat_pct')->comment('VAT %');
+        });
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Reverse the migrations.
+     */
+    public function down(): void
+    {
+        Schema::dropIfExists('weekly_pump_prices');
+    }
+};

database/seeders/PlanSeeder.php

@@ -14,71 +14,75 @@ class PlanSeeder extends Seeder
             PlanTier::Free->value => [
                 'stripe_price_id_monthly' => null,
                 'stripe_price_id_annual' => null,
-                'features' => [
-                    'fuel_types' => ['max' => 1],
-                    'email' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'weekly_digest'],
-                    'push' => ['enabled' => false, 'frequency' => 'none'],
-                    'whatsapp' => ['enabled' => false, 'daily_limit' => 0, 'scheduled_updates' => 0],
-                    'sms' => ['enabled' => false, 'daily_limit' => 0],
-                    'ai_predictions' => false,
-                    'price_threshold' => false,
-                    'score_alerts' => false,
-                ],
+                'max_fuel_types' => 1,
+                'email_enabled' => true,
+                'email_frequency' => 'weekly_digest',
+                'push_enabled' => false,
+                'push_frequency' => 'none',
+                'whatsapp_enabled' => false,
+                'whatsapp_daily_limit' => 0,
+                'whatsapp_scheduled_updates' => 0,
+                'sms_enabled' => false,
+                'sms_daily_limit' => 0,
+                'ai_predictions' => false,
+                'price_threshold' => false,
+                'score_alerts' => false,
             ],
             PlanTier::Basic->value => [
                 'stripe_price_id_monthly' => config('services.stripe.prices.basic.monthly'),
                 'stripe_price_id_annual' => config('services.stripe.prices.basic.annual'),
-                'features' => [
-                    'fuel_types' => ['max' => 1],
-                    'email' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'daily'],
-                    'push' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'daily'],
-                    'whatsapp' => ['enabled' => true, 'daily_limit' => 5, 'scheduled_updates' => 2],
-                    'sms' => ['enabled' => false, 'daily_limit' => 0],
-                    'ai_predictions' => false,
-                    'price_threshold' => true,
-                    'score_alerts' => true,
-                ],
+                'max_fuel_types' => 1,
+                'email_enabled' => true,
+                'email_frequency' => 'daily',
+                'push_enabled' => true,
+                'push_frequency' => 'daily',
+                'whatsapp_enabled' => true,
+                'whatsapp_daily_limit' => 5,
+                'whatsapp_scheduled_updates' => 2,
+                'sms_enabled' => false,
+                'sms_daily_limit' => 0,
+                'ai_predictions' => false,
+                'price_threshold' => true,
+                'score_alerts' => true,
             ],
             PlanTier::Plus->value => [
                 'stripe_price_id_monthly' => config('services.stripe.prices.plus.monthly'),
                 'stripe_price_id_annual' => config('services.stripe.prices.plus.annual'),
-                'features' => [
-                    'fuel_types' => ['max' => 1],
-                    'email' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'triggered'],
-                    'push' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'triggered'],
-                    'whatsapp' => ['enabled' => true, 'daily_limit' => 5, 'scheduled_updates' => 2],
-                    'sms' => ['enabled' => true, 'daily_limit' => 1],
-                    'ai_predictions' => true,
-                    'price_threshold' => true,
-                    'score_alerts' => true,
-                ],
+                'max_fuel_types' => 1,
+                'email_enabled' => true,
+                'email_frequency' => 'triggered',
+                'push_enabled' => true,
+                'push_frequency' => 'triggered',
+                'whatsapp_enabled' => true,
+                'whatsapp_daily_limit' => 5,
+                'whatsapp_scheduled_updates' => 2,
+                'sms_enabled' => true,
+                'sms_daily_limit' => 1,
+                'ai_predictions' => true,
+                'price_threshold' => true,
+                'score_alerts' => true,
             ],
             PlanTier::Pro->value => [
                 'stripe_price_id_monthly' => config('services.stripe.prices.pro.monthly'),
                 'stripe_price_id_annual' => config('services.stripe.prices.pro.annual'),
-                'features' => [
-                    'fuel_types' => ['max' => null],
-                    'email' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'triggered'],
-                    'push' => ['enabled' => true, 'frequency' => 'triggered'],
-                    'whatsapp' => ['enabled' => true, 'daily_limit' => 5, 'scheduled_updates' => 2],
-                    'sms' => ['enabled' => true, 'daily_limit' => 3],
-                    'ai_predictions' => true,
-                    'price_threshold' => true,
-                    'score_alerts' => true,
-                ],
+                'max_fuel_types' => null,
+                'email_enabled' => true,
+                'email_frequency' => 'triggered',
+                'push_enabled' => true,
+                'push_frequency' => 'triggered',
+                'whatsapp_enabled' => true,
+                'whatsapp_daily_limit' => 5,
+                'whatsapp_scheduled_updates' => 2,
+                'sms_enabled' => true,
+                'sms_daily_limit' => 3,
+                'ai_predictions' => true,
+                'price_threshold' => true,
+                'score_alerts' => true,
             ],
         ];
 
-        foreach ($plans as $name => $data) {
-            Plan::updateOrCreate(
-                ['name' => $name],
-                [
-                    'stripe_price_id_monthly' => $data['stripe_price_id_monthly'],
-                    'stripe_price_id_annual' => $data['stripe_price_id_annual'],
-                    'features' => $data['features'],
-                    'active' => true,
-                ]
-            );
+        foreach ($plans as $name => $attributes) {
+            Plan::updateOrCreate(['name' => $name], [...$attributes, 'active' => true]);
         }
     }
 }

docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-stripe-subscription-lifecycle-design.md

@@ -0,0 +1,216 @@
+# Stripe Subscription Lifecycle — Design Spec
+
+**Date:** 2026-04-23
+**Status:** Approved — ready for implementation plan
+
+## Purpose
+
+Formalise the end-to-end Stripe subscription flow: signup, upgrade, downgrade,
+cancellation, renewal, payment failure recovery, and final downgrade. Covers
+webhook handling, email communication, user-facing flows, and minimal data-model
+additions on top of the existing Cashier + `Plan` + `PlanFeatures` foundation.
+
+Existing working pieces (see `docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-15-tier-features-design.md`)
+are kept as-is:
+
+- Laravel Cashier, `Plan` model with `resolveForUser()` + cache
+- `PlanFeatures` service (all entitlement decisions)
+- `RequiresFeature` middleware
+- `DispatchUserNotificationJob` using `PlanFeatures`
+- `BillingController` (checkout + portal + success/cancel routes)
+- Existing `DowngradeUserOnSubscriptionDeleted` listener (absorbed into the new
+  consolidated handler below)
+
+## Decisions
+
+| Topic | Decision |
+|---|---|
+| Grace period length | 5 days from first failed renewal charge |
+| Retry strategy | Stripe-managed: 3 attempts on days 1, 3, 5; then cancel subscription |
+| Features during grace | Stay ON until `customer.subscription.deleted` fires |
+| Dunning emails | Hybrid — Stripe sends "update card" transactional; we send branded day-3 and day-5 reminders |
+| Annual downgrade policy | Wait until renewal; no mid-term refunds |
+| Subscription management UI | Stripe-hosted Customer Portal for everything (upgrade, downgrade, cancel, card update, invoices) |
+| VAT / Stripe Tax | Skip for v1; revisit before £90k turnover |
+| Post-grace reactivation | User returns via pricing page → Stripe Checkout (new subscription) |
+
+## Webhook Event Catalogue
+
+All Stripe events arrive via Cashier's auto-registered `/stripe/webhook` route
+and fire the `Laravel\Cashier\Events\WebhookReceived` event. A single consolidated
+listener `HandleStripeWebhook` routes on `$event->payload['type']`. The existing
+`DowngradeUserOnSubscriptionDeleted` listener is folded into it.
+
+| Event | Action |
+|---|---|
+| `customer.subscription.created` | Bust `plan_for_user_{id}` cache |
+| `customer.subscription.updated` | Bust cache (catches portal plan swaps + `past_due` ↔ `active` transitions) |
+| `customer.subscription.deleted` | Downgrade user to free, disable WhatsApp + SMS prefs, clear `grace_period_until`, bust cache |
+| `invoice.payment_succeeded` | Clear `grace_period_until`, bust cache |
+| `invoice.payment_failed` | Set `grace_period_until = now + 5 days`, queue day-3 and day-5 reminder mailables with `->delay()` |
+
+Events not listed are ignored. `invoice.upcoming` is intentionally not handled —
+Stripe's default renewal-preview email covers it.
+
+The listener is **idempotent**: every branch is safe to run twice on the same
+event (Cashier does not natively deduplicate webhooks, and Stripe retries
+failing deliveries). Cache busts are idempotent by nature; state writes use
+`updateOrCreate` / direct column updates that converge on the same result.
+
+## Feature Access During Grace
+
+- When `invoice.payment_failed` fires, Stripe transitions the subscription to
+  `past_due`. Cashier's `$user->subscribed('plus')` returns `true` for
+  `past_due` subscriptions by default, so `PlanFeatures::tier()` already reports
+  the paid tier. **No code change needed.**
+- Features only turn off when `customer.subscription.deleted` fires — which
+  happens after Stripe's 3rd failed retry (day 5). At that point the listener
+  clears the Cashier subscription and the next `PlanFeatures::for($user)` call
+  resolves to `free`.
+- The dashboard renders a banner while `$user->subscription()->pastDue()` is
+  true, linking to the Stripe Portal to update the card.
+
+## Data Model Additions
+
+### `users` table
+
+Add one nullable column:
+
+| Column | Type | Purpose |
+|---|---|---|
+| `grace_period_until` | `timestamp` nullable | Drives the past-due banner + is used by reminder mailables as the cancellation check |
+
+Set when `invoice.payment_failed` fires (`now()->addDays(5)`). Cleared on
+`invoice.payment_succeeded` or `customer.subscription.deleted`.
+
+No other schema changes. Stripe + Cashier tables remain the source of truth for
+subscription state.
+
+## User-Facing Flows
+
+| Flow | Path |
+|---|---|
+| Sign up (paid) | Pricing page → `/billing/checkout/{tier}/{cadence}` → Stripe Checkout → dashboard |
+| Upgrade | Pricing page → "Manage subscription" → Stripe Portal → select higher plan → Stripe prorates immediately → webhook updates cache |
+| Downgrade | Stripe Portal → select lower plan → Stripe schedules change at period end → webhook on change day fires `customer.subscription.updated` → features swap on period rollover |
+| Cancel | Stripe Portal → cancel → `cancel_at_period_end=true` → features remain until period end → `customer.subscription.deleted` on that date |
+| Update card | Stripe Portal, or via the "update payment method" link in Stripe's transactional dunning email |
+| Reactivate after cancel / post-grace | Pricing page → Stripe Checkout (new subscription) |
+
+## Email Communication
+
+### Stripe-sent (configure in Stripe dashboard)
+
+- Successful payment receipts
+- Failed payment "update your card" — includes hosted update link
+- Upcoming renewal reminder (default 7 days pre-renewal)
+
+### FuelAlert-sent (our Laravel Mailables)
+
+| Name | Triggered by | Delay | Subject |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| `PaymentFailedDay3Reminder` | `invoice.payment_failed` webhook | `now + 3 days` | "Heads up — your FuelAlert payment is retrying" |
+| `PaymentFailedDay5Reminder` | Same | `now + 5 days` | "Last chance — {Tier} features end tomorrow" |
+
+Both mailables check `$this->user->grace_period_until === null` in `build()` /
+`content()` and abort silently if the grace period has already been cleared
+(payment recovered or subscription cancelled). This is simpler than cancelling
+queued jobs.
+
+Copy references the user's current tier by name, spells out which features
+they'll lose on downgrade, and links to the Stripe Portal to update the card.
+
+## Stripe Dashboard Configuration (one-time, manual)
+
+1. **Billing → Automations → Subscription retry rules:**
+   - Switch from "Smart Retries" to **Custom**
+   - Retry schedule: day 1, day 3, day 5 after first failure
+   - After final retry: **Cancel subscription**
+2. **Emails → Customer emails:**
+   - Enable: "Successful payments", "Failed payments", "Upcoming renewals"
+3. **Settings → Branding:**
+   - Upload FuelAlert logo
+   - Set primary colour to match app accent
+4. **Customer Portal settings:**
+   - Allow plan changes (all 3 paid tiers × monthly + annual)
+   - Allow cancellation (at period end only)
+   - Allow payment method updates, invoice history
+   - Hide everything else (no custom domains, no promo code input — keep
+     promotion codes to checkout only)
+
+## Architecture
+
+```
+Stripe
+  │
+  │ webhook POST /stripe/webhook
+  ▼
+CashierController (built-in)
+  │
+  │ dispatches WebhookReceived event
+  ▼
+HandleStripeWebhook (new consolidated listener)
+  │
+  ├── subscription.created/updated → cache bust
+  ├── subscription.deleted         → downgrade + disable prefs + cache bust
+  ├── invoice.payment_succeeded    → clear grace_period_until + cache bust
+  └── invoice.payment_failed       → set grace_period_until + queue reminder mails
+                                       │
+                                       ├─► PaymentFailedDay3Reminder (delay 3d)
+                                       └─► PaymentFailedDay5Reminder (delay 5d)
+                                              │
+                                              └─ guard: abort if grace_period_until is null
+```
+
+## Testing Strategy
+
+Pest feature tests, one file per webhook branch, using Cashier's webhook-test
+helpers (simulate `WebhookReceived` with a representative payload).
+
+Required test cases:
+
+- `customer.subscription.created` busts the plan cache
+- `customer.subscription.updated` busts the plan cache after a portal plan swap
+- `customer.subscription.deleted` downgrades to free, disables WhatsApp + SMS
+  prefs, clears `grace_period_until` (this folds in the existing
+  `DowngradeUserOnSubscriptionDeletedTest`)
+- `invoice.payment_failed` sets `grace_period_until` 5 days out and queues both
+  reminder mailables with correct delays (use `Queue::fake()`)
+- `invoice.payment_succeeded` clears `grace_period_until`
+- `PaymentFailedDay3Reminder` aborts when `grace_period_until` is null
+- `PaymentFailedDay5Reminder` aborts when `grace_period_until` is null
+- Listener is idempotent — replaying the same event twice produces the same
+  final state
+- Existing `BillingControllerTest` + `PlanFeaturesTest` continue to pass
+
+Manual QA checklist (production Stripe test mode):
+
+- Sign up on all three paid tiers × both cadences
+- Upgrade basic-monthly → pro-monthly via Portal; confirm instant swap
+- Downgrade pro-monthly → basic-monthly via Portal; confirm change takes effect
+  at next renewal
+- Cancel mid-period; confirm features persist until period end
+- Trigger payment failure with test card `4000 0000 0000 0341`; confirm banner
+  appears, day-3 + day-5 emails send, subscription cancels on day 5, user
+  downgrades to free
+
+## Out of Scope (v1)
+
+- Stripe Tax / VAT — revisit before £90k turnover
+- Mid-term annual refunds — commitment model, no refunds
+- Custom in-app upgrade/downgrade UI — Stripe Portal is the UI
+- Trial periods — none offered
+- `invoice.upcoming` handling — Stripe's default email is sufficient
+- Subscription pause / skip-a-month — not in tier spec
+- Multi-currency — GBP only for v1
+
+## Open Documentation Updates
+
+The following project docs need editing to match this spec (done as part of
+implementation, not a separate task):
+
+- `.claude/rules/payments.md` — current version doesn't mention grace period,
+  webhook catalogue, or decision to use Stripe Portal exclusively. Describes a
+  custom Livewire upgrade UI that is no longer planned.
+- `.claude/rules/tiers.md` — largely accurate; check the "Notification Dispatch
+  Flow" section doesn't contradict any webhook behaviour here.

docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-prediction-rebuild-design.md

@@ -0,0 +1,618 @@
+# Prediction Rebuild — Design Spec
+
+## Context
+
+The current prediction service (`NationalFuelPredictionService` + six signal
+classes) produces output the user has repeatedly described as "doesn't make
+sense": headlines that contradict their own reasoning text, weights that
+nobody can defend a number on, and confidence values that aren't grounded in
+any track record. Two earlier docs (`.claude/rules/scoring.md`, `.claude/rules/prediction.md`)
+disagree on the weights of the same signals, which is itself evidence that
+the design has drifted.
+
+This spec replaces the entire prediction stack from scratch around the
+historical data we actually have, with a model whose confidence values are
+calibrated against its own backtested track record.
+
+Goals:
+- A "fill up now or wait?" call honest about uncertainty.
+- Confidence values calibrated against backtested residuals — "70%" actually
+  means "in 7 of every 10 cases like this, the model called direction right".
+- Simple enough to debug a year from now.
+- Remove the six-signal aggregator entirely.
+- Recognise that pump prices, while *measured* weekly by BEIS, can *move* daily
+  during oil shocks (Iran, OPEC surprise cuts, Hormuz disruption). The static
+  weekly forecast must be backed by a daily news/event overlay so we can flag
+  staleness in real time rather than pretend a Monday number is still valid on
+  Thursday after a 6% Brent move.
+
+---
+
+## Inputs (audited 2026-05-01)
+
+| Source | Status | Use in v1 |
+|---|---|---|
+| `weekly_pump_prices` | 435 weeks, all Mondays, 0 outliers, 1 duty change (Mar 2022, 57.95p → 52.95p), VAT stable at 20% | **Foundation** — train Layer 1 |
+| `station_prices_current` | ~7,550 stations × e10, ~7,620 × b7_standard | **Layer 2** — descriptive snapshot |
+| `stations` | 7,747 stations, 1,989 supermarkets, lat/lng | Layer 2 |
+| `station_prices` | 75 days of changes since 2026-01-16, sample mix uneven per day | Not modelled in v1, but **used by the volatility regime detector** as a churn indicator (% stations changing price / day vs 30-day baseline). |
+| `brent_prices` | 30 days only | **Backfilled in Phase 7** (8 years from FRED, single API call). Used as a Brent-move volatility trigger and as fuel for the daily LLM overlay. |
+
+The Fuel Finder API has been confirmed empirically to have **no historical
+archive** — `effective-start-timestamp` is a station-level filter on current
+prices, not a time-window query. Per-station deep history can only accrue
+forward from the date polling started.
+
+---
+
+## Architecture — five thin layers
+
+### Layer 1 — National weekly forecaster (predictive, calibrated)
+
+Trained once weekly on `weekly_pump_prices`. Output:
+
+- `direction ∈ {rising, falling, flat}`
+- `magnitude_pence` — predicted Δ price next week
+- `ridge_confidence` (0–100) — calibrated from backtested residuals, not
+  from the model's raw output
+
+This is the **quantitative baseline**. It updates only when the BEIS Monday
+publication arrives (so the *forecast itself* changes weekly), but its
+*displayed confidence* (Layer 3) is adjusted in real time by Layers 4 and 5.
+
+`direction = flat` whenever `|magnitude_pence| < FLAT_THRESHOLD`. Phase 3
+picks `FLAT_THRESHOLD` from the backtest residual distribution; the
+starting value is **0.2p / litre**.
+
+### Layer 2 — Local snapshot (descriptive, NOT predictive)
+
+Pure SQL aggregates against `station_prices_current` + Haversine on
+`stations.lat/lng`. No ML, no history, no surprises:
+
+- `local_avg_50km(fuel_type, lat, lng)`
+- `national_avg(fuel_type)`
+- `cheapest_within(km, fuel_type, lat, lng)`
+- `supermarket_avg_local`, `major_avg_local`, gap
+
+Layer 2 never speaks about the future. It describes the present.
+
+### Layer 3 — Verdict merger (rule-based gates, no multipliers)
+
+Single user-facing verdict ∈ {`fill_now`, `wait`, `no_signal`}. The
+displayed confidence number is `ridge_confidence` itself, **untouched**.
+LLM agreement and volatility status are shown as separate **badges**, not
+blended into the number. Honesty over smoothing.
+
+Gates evaluated in order, first match wins:
+
+```
+1. direction == 'flat'                                 → no_signal
+2. ridge_confidence < 40                               → no_signal
+3. volatility_regime active                            → no_signal  (badge: volatile)
+4. LLM disagrees AND ridge_confidence < 75             → no_signal  (badge: conflicting)
+5. rising  AND ridge_confidence >= 70                  → fill_now
+6. falling AND ridge_confidence >= 70                  → wait
+7. otherwise (40 <= conf < 70, no veto from 3 or 4)    → dashboard-only
+```
+
+Why gates, not multipliers:
+
+- A multiplied confidence number is a black-box blend that the user can't
+  audit. A 70% that used to be 90% before today's volatility hit looks
+  identical to a 70% that's been calibrated all along.
+- Gates compose cleanly. Each rule has one job and is independently
+  testable.
+- The verdict is binary anyway (notify / don't / silent). Smoothing
+  confidence under the hood doesn't help that decision — it only obscures it.
+
+Layer 2 affects **urgency wording only** ("fill up now, *especially* in
+your area at 2p above national"). It never changes the verdict. Neither
+does Layer 4 or Layer 5 — they can suppress (gate 3, 4) but never flip
+the direction.
+
+### Layer 4 — Daily LLM news overlay (qualitative, news-aware)
+
+**Single scheduled call at 07:00 UK.** Plus an event-driven refresh when
+Layer 5's volatility flag flips ON (with a 4-hour cooldown so the same
+event doesn't trigger repeatedly).
+
+JSON in, JSON out. Calls Claude Haiku with web search enabled, asks for
+direction + confidence + cited events with URLs. Stored in a new
+`llm_overlays` table.
+
+Layer 4 is **read-only with respect to the volatility flag**. It writes
+its result row; only Layer 5 mutates `volatility_regimes.active`.
+
+LLM confidence is hard-capped at 75 in code (web-searched LLMs are
+systematically overconfident). Calls without `events_cited` are rejected.
+
+### Layer 5 — Volatility regime detector (intra-week safety net)
+
+Hourly cron. **Sole owner** of the `volatility_regimes.active` flag.
+Reads four signals, OR-combined:
+
+1. Daily Brent move > 3% close-to-close (FRED `DCOILBRENTEU`, Phase 7).
+2. Most recent `llm_overlays.major_impact_event = true` AND at least one
+   verified URL.
+3. `station_prices` daily churn rate > 1.5× its 30-day baseline.
+4. A `watched_events` row covering today (manually flagged geopolitical
+   periods).
+
+When the flag flips on:
+- An event-driven LLM refresh is queued (Layer 4) if last run was > 4h ago.
+- **Layer 3's gate 3 fires**: verdict forced to `no_signal` with the
+  `volatile` badge.
+- The reasoning text appended: *"Volatility detected ({trigger}) — this
+  forecast may be stale within days."*
+
+When it flips off:
+- Verdict returns to whatever the gates produce on the unchanged
+  `ridge_confidence` (no multiplier to reset — there are none).
+- Badge cleared.
+- Next morning's 07:00 LLM call still runs (it always runs); no extra
+  refreshes are queued.
+
+Layer 5 never changes Layer 1's *direction*. It only suppresses the
+verdict via gate 3.
+
+---
+
+## Methodology — Layer 1
+
+### Target
+
+```
+ΔULSP[t+1] = ULSP[t+1] − ULSP[t]
+```
+
+We model the **change**, not the level. UK pump prices are non-stationary,
+so regressing on levels gives spurious R² and useless coefficients.
+Differencing makes the series stationary.
+
+### Features (all stationary)
+
+| Feature | Notes |
+|---|---|
+| `Δulsp_lag_0`, `Δulsp_lag_1`, `Δulsp_lag_3` | 1w / 2w / 4w momentum |
+| `Δulsd_lag_0` | Diesel cross-signal as a *change* |
+| `ulsp[t] − ma8[t]` | **Mean-reversion term** — gap between current price and 8-week MA. Single most useful feature for 1-week-ahead UK pump forecast. |
+| `week_of_year_sin`, `week_of_year_cos` | Cyclic seasonality encoding |
+| `is_pre_bank_holiday` | Boolean, within 7 days of UK bank holiday |
+
+The level only enters as the deviation from MA-8 (itself stationary).
+That's the only way levels are allowed in.
+
+**Duty change is NOT a feature.** With one event in 435 weeks, n=1 cannot
+fit a meaningful coefficient. Instead, duty-change-adjacent weeks (±4
+weeks of a known change) are handled in the **calibration override**
+(see below) — confidence is halved and the regime flag is surfaced in
+the reasoning text. A regime can be flagged. A coefficient cannot be
+trained from one observation.
+
+### Model
+
+Ridge regression. Boring on purpose:
+
+- 435 weekly observations is too few to beat a well-specified linear model
+  out-of-sample with gradient boosting or LSTM — those would just fit noise.
+- Interpretable coefficients are essential for the honesty layer
+  (the reasoning text describes what the model used).
+
+Upgrade to a non-linear model **only** if Phase 3 backtest demonstrates the
+linear model is missing real structure.
+
+### Training and evaluation split
+
+- Train on weeks 1–305 (~70%).
+- Evaluate on weeks 306–435 (~30%) with rolling-origin cross-validation
+  (single-split would overfit hyperparameters to one window).
+
+### Confidence calibration
+
+Two-stage calibration:
+
+1. **Magnitude binning** — bin predictions by predicted `|magnitude|` and
+   record actual hit rate per bin. The published `confidence_score` reads
+   from this lookup, not from the model's raw output.
+2. **Regime flag** — flag any forecast week within ±4 weeks of a known
+   duty change. With only one duty change in 435 weeks, statistical
+   stratification at n=1 is impossible. Instead:
+   - For flagged weeks, halve the calibrated confidence manually.
+   - Surface the flag in the reasoning text: *"Recent duty change —
+     forecast accuracy is reduced for the next several weeks."*
+
+This is the only place v1 accepts a hand-tuned guard, and it's there
+because the data can't tell us better.
+
+---
+
+## Methodology — Layer 2
+
+Pure aggregates. No model.
+
+```sql
+-- Local 50km average
+SELECT AVG(price_pence) FROM station_prices_current
+JOIN stations ON station_prices_current.station_id = stations.node_id
+WHERE fuel_type = ? AND <Haversine within 50km of (lat, lng)>;
+
+-- National average
+SELECT AVG(price_pence) FROM station_prices_current WHERE fuel_type = ?;
+
+-- Cheapest within 25km
+SELECT stations.*, station_prices_current.price_pence
+FROM station_prices_current
+JOIN stations ON station_prices_current.station_id = stations.node_id
+WHERE fuel_type = ? AND <Haversine within 25km>
+ORDER BY price_pence ASC LIMIT 5;
+
+-- Supermarket vs major split, locally
+SELECT stations.is_supermarket, AVG(price_pence)
+FROM station_prices_current
+JOIN stations ON station_prices_current.station_id = stations.node_id
+WHERE fuel_type = ? AND <Haversine within 25km>
+GROUP BY stations.is_supermarket;
+```
+
+Output is descriptive: "Your area is X p above national average right
+now", "Cheapest near you: {station} at {price}", "Supermarkets near you:
+{avg} vs majors: {avg}". **Never** predictive language.
+
+---
+
+## Methodology — Layer 3
+
+Full gate ordering is in the Architecture section (Layer 3). Summary:
+
+- Verdict via ordered rule gates, **not** multipliers.
+- `ridge_confidence` is displayed verbatim — never multiplied.
+- Volatility flag and LLM disagreement act as **suppressors with badges**
+  (`volatile`, `conflicting`) but never flip direction.
+- `direction == 'flat'` always produces `no_signal`.
+- LLM disagreement only suppresses the verdict when `ridge_confidence < 75`.
+  Above 75 the model's call is strong enough to stand even with a news-scan
+  disagreement (the LLM is hard-capped at 75 confidence anyway, so it
+  can't out-confidence the ridge model — only flag a tension).
+
+Local position from Layer 2 modifies urgency wording only:
+
+- If user's local average is materially above national (>2p), and Layer 1
+  says "rising", urgency increased ("fill up now, *especially* in your area").
+- Layer 2 never flips Layer 1's direction.
+
+---
+
+## Methodology — Layer 4 (LLM news overlay)
+
+Single scheduled call daily at 07:00 UK. Additional event-driven calls
+are queued by Layer 5 when the volatility flag flips ON, with a 4-hour
+cooldown enforced in code (skip the queue if the most recent
+`llm_overlays.ran_at` is within 4 hours).
+
+**Brent input** (`brent_recent_14_days`) is optional — passed as `null`
+until Phase 7 backfills `brent_prices`. Phase 8 cannot ship before
+Phase 7 — explicit dependency.
+
+### Request shape (JSON)
+
+```json
+{
+  "input": {
+    "ulsp_recent_8_weeks": [...],
+    "brent_recent_14_days": [...],
+    "current_week_of_year": 18,
+    "days_to_next_bank_holiday": 5,
+    "duty_pence": 52.95,
+    "ridge_model_says": {
+      "direction": "down",
+      "confidence": 68,
+      "magnitude_pence": -0.4
+    }
+  },
+  "ask": "Search recent news for oil-supply, OPEC, refinery, shipping, sanctions, geopolitical events affecting UK retail fuel prices over the next 1-2 weeks. Reply ONLY in the schema below."
+}
+```
+
+### Response shape (JSON, enforced)
+
+```json
+{
+  "direction": "rising | falling | flat",
+  "confidence": 0,
+  "reasoning_short": "1-2 sentences",
+  "events_cited": [
+    {"headline": "...", "source": "...", "url": "...", "impact": "rising|falling|neutral"}
+  ],
+  "agrees_with_ridge": true,
+  "major_impact_event": false
+}
+```
+
+### Code-level guards (not in the prompt)
+
+1. **Cap `confidence` at 75.** Web-searched LLMs are systematically overconfident.
+2. **Reject the response if `events_cited` is empty.** Forces the LLM to
+   ground its call in something checkable, not vibes.
+3. **Verify each `url` in `events_cited` is reachable** before storing.
+   Catches hallucinated citations. Failed URLs blank the citation but
+   don't reject the call (newer URLs sometimes 404 briefly).
+4. **Layer 4 does NOT mutate `volatility_regimes.active`.** It writes its
+   row to `llm_overlays` (with `major_impact_event` + verified URLs) and
+   that's it. Layer 5's hourly cron picks up the new row and decides
+   whether to flip the flag.
+
+### How Layer 3 uses it
+
+- LLM agrees → no gating effect; `agrees` badge shown next to the verdict
+  ("News scan agrees, citing {event}").
+- LLM disagrees AND `ridge_confidence < 75` → **gate 4 fires**: verdict
+  forced to `no_signal` with the `conflicting` badge.
+- LLM disagrees AND `ridge_confidence >= 75` → no suppression; the
+  disagreement is shown as a badge but the model's strong call stands.
+- LLM neutral / flat → no gating effect.
+- Direction is never flipped by the LLM.
+
+---
+
+## Methodology — Layer 5 (volatility regime detector)
+
+Hourly cron. **Sole owner** of `volatility_regimes.active`. Reads four
+signals, OR-combined:
+
+1. **Brent move** — close-to-close daily Brent move > 3% on FRED
+   `DCOILBRENTEU`. FRED publishes with a one-day lag (today's value is
+   yesterday's settle), so the trigger reflects the most recent settled
+   day. Sufficient for v1 — we don't have a real-time Brent feed.
+2. **LLM major-impact flag** — most recent `llm_overlays` row has
+   `major_impact_event = true` AND at least one verified URL.
+3. **Station churn** — *gated until ≥180 days of stable polling.* The
+   trigger fires when the last-24h % of stations updating price exceeds
+   1.5× the 30-day rolling baseline. With only 75 days of uneven polling
+   (Jan 16 → May 1) the baseline is meaningless — sample-mix variance
+   would dominate any real shock signal. The trigger is implemented but
+   disabled in code via a feature flag; flip it on once `station_prices`
+   has 180+ continuous days.
+4. **Manual `watched_events`** — a row covering today. Lets you flag
+   known geopolitical periods manually (e.g. "Iran tensions Apr–May 2026").
+
+When the flag flips on:
+
+- An event-driven Layer 4 LLM refresh is queued (skipped if the most
+  recent `llm_overlays.ran_at` is within 4 hours — cooldown).
+- **Layer 3's gate 3 fires**: verdict forced to `no_signal` with the
+  `volatile` badge for as long as the flag stays on.
+- Reasoning text appended: *"Volatility detected ({trigger label}) — this
+  forecast may be stale within days."*
+
+When it flips off:
+- Verdict returns to whatever the gates produce on the unchanged
+  `ridge_confidence` (no multiplier reset needed — there are no multipliers).
+- Badge cleared.
+- The next morning's 07:00 LLM call still runs (always does); no extra
+  refreshes are queued by Layer 5.
+
+---
+
+## Schema deltas
+
+### Add
+
+```
+weekly_forecasts
+  id                   BIGINT PK
+  forecast_for         DATE                — Monday the forecast covers
+  model_version        VARCHAR(32)         — links back to backtests row
+  direction            ENUM('rising','falling','flat')
+  magnitude_pence      SMALLINT            — predicted Δ × 100, signed
+  ridge_confidence     TINYINT UNSIGNED    — 0..100, calibrated from backtested residuals. Displayed verbatim. Layer 3 gates may suppress the verdict but never modify this number.
+  flagged_duty_change  BOOLEAN             — true if forecast is within ±4 weeks of a duty change (avoids collision with Layer 5's volatility_regimes)
+  reasoning            TEXT                — generated from features actually used
+  generated_at         DATETIME
+  UNIQUE (forecast_for, model_version)
+  INDEX  (forecast_for, generated_at DESC)
+
+forecast_outcomes
+  forecast_for      DATE
+  model_version     VARCHAR(32)
+  predicted_class   ENUM('rising','falling','flat')
+  actual_class      ENUM('rising','falling','flat')
+  correct           BOOLEAN
+  abs_error_pence   SMALLINT UNSIGNED
+  resolved_at       DATETIME
+  PRIMARY KEY (forecast_for, model_version)
+
+backtests
+  id                 BIGINT PK
+  model_version      VARCHAR(32) UNIQUE
+  features_json      JSON                — feature spec
+  train_start        DATE
+  train_end          DATE
+  eval_start         DATE
+  eval_end           DATE
+  directional_accuracy DECIMAL(5,2)
+  mae_pence          DECIMAL(5,2)
+  calibration_table  JSON                — {bin_low..bin_high → empirical_hit_rate}
+  leak_suspected     BOOLEAN             — secondary smell test: true if directional_accuracy > 75. Primary leak detection is structural (see Backtest section).
+  ran_at             DATETIME
+
+llm_overlays
+  id                  BIGINT PK
+  ran_at              DATETIME
+  forecast_for_week   DATE                — which weekly forecast it overlays
+  direction           ENUM('rising','falling','flat')
+  confidence          TINYINT UNSIGNED    — capped 75 in code
+  reasoning           TEXT
+  events_json         JSON                — cited events with verified URLs
+  agrees_with_ridge   BOOLEAN
+  major_impact_event  BOOLEAN
+  volatility_flag_on  BOOLEAN             — was the regime flag on at run time
+  search_used         BOOLEAN
+  INDEX (forecast_for_week, ran_at)
+
+volatility_regimes
+  id                  BIGINT PK
+  flipped_on_at       DATETIME
+  flipped_off_at      DATETIME NULL
+  trigger             ENUM('brent_move','llm_event','station_churn','manual')
+  trigger_detail      TEXT                — e.g. "Brent +4.2% close-to-close"
+  active              BOOLEAN
+
+watched_events
+  id                  BIGINT PK
+  label               VARCHAR(128)
+  starts_at           DATETIME
+  ends_at             DATETIME
+  notes               TEXT
+```
+
+### Keep
+
+- `weekly_pump_prices` — already loaded, source of truth
+- `stations`, `station_prices_current` — for Layer 2
+- `station_prices` — keep collecting forward, not modelled in v1
+
+### Deprecate (delete after Layer 1 ships)
+
+- `price_predictions` — old LLM/EWMA store, replaced by `weekly_forecasts`
+
+The current six-signal aggregator (`NationalFuelPredictionService` and
+`app/Services/Prediction/Signals/*`) is **fully replaced**, not extended.
+Same JSON output keys (`predicted_direction`, `confidence_score`,
+`action`, `reasoning`) so the Vue frontend doesn't break — engine swapped,
+contract preserved.
+
+---
+
+## Implementation phases (each ships something working)
+
+| Phase | Scope | Ships |
+|---|---|---|
+| **1. Backtest harness** | `BacktestRunner` service + `backtests` table. Takes a model class, train/eval split, returns directional accuracy + MAE + calibration curve. **Structural leak detection** built in (per-feature source-timestamp check vs target Monday); accuracy>75% smell test as secondary. | A way to *prove* any future model works before shipping it. |
+| **2. Naive baseline** | "Predict next week = this week" implemented as a model class. Run through harness. | A floor: any future model must beat this. |
+| **3. v1 ridge model** | Features above (incl. mean-reversion term), trained once, persisted with `model_version`. `WeeklyForecastService` runs it. Backtest must clear the acceptance gate. | First real forecast. Backtested numbers visible. |
+| **4. Live wiring** | Replace `NationalFuelPredictionService` internals with a thin adapter delegating to `WeeklyForecastService`. Same API shape, new engine. | Frontend keeps working, predictions now from the new model. |
+| **5. Local snapshot** | `LocalSnapshotService` — pure aggregates. Wire into `/api/stations` payload alongside the headline forecast. | "Your area" descriptive cards. |
+| **6. Honesty layer** | Reasoning generator describes *what the model used*: lag values, season, holiday flag. Shows backtest accuracy badge. Returns explicit "not enough data" when confidence < 40. Surfaces the duty-change-adjacent flag when set. | The "no BS" framing. |
+| **7. Brent backfill + daily refresh** | One FRED call (2018→today, ~2,150 daily rows). Daily refresh cron at **06:30 UK** (must complete before Phase 8's 07:00 LLM call — sequenced so the LLM has fresh Brent context). Used by Phase 9's volatility detector and as a feature option for future model iterations (only added to the ridge model if backtested lift is ≥3 percentage points directional accuracy). | Daily Brent in DB. Foundation for volatility + LLM context. |
+| **8. LLM news overlay** | `LlmOverlayService` — single scheduled call at **07:00 UK** (after Brent refresh). Plus event-driven calls when Layer 5 flips the volatility flag on, with 4h cooldown. JSON in / JSON out, web search enabled, results stored in `llm_overlays`. Feeds Layer 3's gate 4 (suppress when LLM disagrees AND ridge_confidence < 75) and the `agrees`/`conflicting` badges. URL-verification + empty-citation rejection enforced in code. **Depends on Phase 7.** | News-aware verdict suppression and badge on top of the calibrated ridge baseline. |
+| **9. Volatility regime detector** | `VolatilityRegimeService` — hourly cron, sole owner of `volatility_regimes.active`. OR-combines four triggers: Brent move > 3%, LLM `major_impact_event`, station churn > 1.5× baseline (**gated until ≥180 days of stable polling**), `watched_events` row covering today. Fires Layer 3's gate 3 (verdict → `no_signal` with `volatile` badge) and the event-driven Layer 4 refresh. | The intra-week safety net for oil shocks. |
+
+---
+
+## Backtest acceptance gates (Phase 3 → Phase 4)
+
+| Backtest result | Action |
+|---|---|
+| < 60% directional accuracy | Features are wrong. Stay in Phase 3, don't ship. |
+| 60–62% | Marginal. One feature iteration, then re-evaluate. |
+| **62–68%** | **Ship.** Realistic target for UK weekly pump direction without Brent. |
+| 68–75% | Excellent. Ship and watch closely. |
+| > 75% | **Stop.** Run the structural leak detector. Almost certainly time leakage (e.g. using `t+1` info accidentally in `t` features). The accuracy threshold is a secondary smell test, not the primary detector. |
+| MAE > 1.0p / litre | Features are noisy. Refit before shipping. |
+| Target MAE | 0.4–0.7p / litre. |
+
+### Structural leak detection (primary)
+
+Built into the backtest harness. For every (training_week, feature_value)
+pair, the harness verifies the data source's effective timestamp is
+**strictly before** the target Monday. Any feature whose source timestamp
+is on or after the target week is treated as leakage and the backtest
+fails fast. This is independent of accuracy — it catches leakage even
+when it doesn't translate into suspiciously high accuracy.
+
+The `> 75% accuracy` row is a secondary smell test for leakage modes the
+structural check missed (e.g. label leakage via a downstream computed
+column). Primary defence is the timestamp check. These numbers are
+encoded in the harness as assertions, not aspirations.
+
+---
+
+## Honesty rules — non-negotiables
+
+1. Backtest accuracy is **published in the UI**. The model wears its track
+   record on its sleeve.
+2. Below 40 confidence, the recommendation is `no_signal` and the reasoning
+   says "we don't have enough signal to call it" — explicitly. No filler.
+3. When duty-change-adjacent weeks affect the forecast, surface the flag
+   ("forecast may be skewed by recent duty change").
+4. Reasoning text only references features the model actually used — no
+   narrative invention. If the mean-reversion term drove the call, say so
+   ("Pump prices are 3.1p above their 8-week average, and prices typically
+   pull back from that level"). If the seasonality term drove it, say so.
+5. `forecast_outcomes` is populated automatically when the next BEIS week
+   lands. Hit rate over the trailing 13 weeks is shown next to the headline.
+6. When the **volatility regime flag** is on, the UI shows the `volatile`
+   badge and the trigger (e.g. "Brent up 4.2% yesterday — forecast may be
+   stale within days"). Verdict is suppressed visibly via gate 3, never
+   silently.
+7. The LLM overlay is **shown separately** from the ridge model, never
+   blended. "Model says down (68%); news scan agrees, citing {event}" —
+   the `ridge_confidence` number stays calibrated and untouched, while
+   LLM and volatility status are presented as their own badges.
+8. LLM citations with unreachable URLs are **dropped from the displayed
+   reasoning** but kept in `llm_overlays.events_json` for audit. We never
+   show a citation we haven't verified.
+
+---
+
+## What gets deleted at the end of Phase 4
+
+- `app/Services/Prediction/Signals/*` (whole directory)
+- `NationalFuelPredictionService` internals (kept as a thin wrapper, then
+  renamed when the frontend migration completes)
+- `price_predictions` table — replaced by `weekly_forecasts` (ridge) +
+  `llm_overlays` (news layer)
+- `OilPriceService::generatePrediction()`, EWMA/LLM helpers — replaced by
+  `LlmOverlayService` (Phase 8) which has a different contract
+- `OilPriceService::fetchBrentPrices()` — kept and **expanded** in Phase 7
+  (backfill mode + daily refresh), not deleted
+- `.claude/rules/scoring.md` retired in favour of a fresh
+  `.claude/rules/forecasting.md`
+- `.claude/rules/prediction.md` rewritten to match the new architecture
+
+---
+
+## Open decisions (to confirm before Phase 1)
+
+- **Forecast cadence** — the *forecast itself* is weekly (matches BEIS
+  publication). The *confidence and presentation* update daily via Layer 4
+  (LLM) and Layer 5 (volatility regime). This split is deliberate — we
+  refuse to fabricate intra-week movement, but we don't pretend a static
+  Monday number is reliable on Thursday after a 6% Brent move.
+- **Scope** — drop the six-signal aggregator entirely, confirmed.
+- **API shape** — keep existing JSON output keys so Vue keeps working,
+  with the engine swapped under the hood. The original `confidence_score`
+  field maps to `ridge_confidence` (calibrated, untouched). Add new
+  fields: `volatility` (`{active, trigger}`), `news_overlay`
+  (`{direction, agreement, events}`), and `verdict_reason` (which gate
+  fired, if any). The verdict itself goes in the existing `action` field.
+- **Brent** — promoted to Phase 7 (was "optional, conditional"). Needed
+  for the volatility detector, regardless of whether it's used in the
+  ridge model.
+- **LLM** — Anthropic Claude Haiku with web search. Single scheduled call
+  at 07:00 UK (after the 06:30 Brent refresh). Plus event-driven refreshes
+  when Layer 5 flips the volatility flag on, with a 4h cooldown. No fixed
+  afternoon cron — by 13:00 UK, morning users have already made their
+  fill-up decisions, so the value is too low to justify the extra noise.
+  Hard confidence cap 75. Empty-citation rejection.
+
+---
+
+## Changelog (substantive design decisions)
+
+| When | Change | Why |
+|---|---|---|
+| 2026-05-01 v1 | Initial spec — three layers, six-signal aggregator removed, ridge model on BEIS weekly data | Replace incoherent `NationalFuelPredictionService` |
+| 2026-05-01 v2 | Added Layer 4 (LLM news overlay) and Layer 5 (volatility regime detector). Pump prices can move daily during oil shocks; static weekly forecast must be backed by intra-week safety nets. | Iran/Hormuz-style shocks make a Monday-only confidence number stale by Wednesday |
+| 2026-05-01 v3 | **Verdict via rule gates, not multipliers.** `ridge_confidence` displayed verbatim. LLM and volatility presented as badges. `weeks_since_duty_change` removed from features (kept as calibration override only — n=1 can't fit a coefficient). Backtest gate floor lowered 65 → 62 (realistic without Brent). Structural leak detection (per-feature timestamp check) made primary; accuracy>75% demoted to secondary smell test. `weekly_forecasts` PK changed to `(forecast_for, model_version)` to preserve audit on retrain. `forecast_outcomes` made three-class. Layer 5 station-churn trigger gated until ≥180 days of stable polling. | Multipliers obscure calibration. Gates compose cleanly and stay auditable. |
+
+---
+
+## References
+
+- Alquist, Kilian, Vigfusson (2013) — *Forecasting the Price of Oil* —
+  the academic basis for "no-change baseline beats most structural models
+  at <6m horizons" (which is why Phase 2 matters as a hard floor).
+- BEIS *Weekly road fuel prices* CSV — the 435-week training set.
+- `.claude/rules/scoring.md`, `.claude/rules/prediction.md` — the two
+  inconsistent rule files this spec replaces.

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-                "@rolldown/binding-linux-arm-gnueabihf": "1.0.0-rc.15",
-                "@rolldown/binding-linux-arm64-gnu": "1.0.0-rc.15",
-                "@rolldown/binding-linux-arm64-musl": "1.0.0-rc.15",
-                "@rolldown/binding-linux-ppc64-gnu": "1.0.0-rc.15",
-                "@rolldown/binding-linux-s390x-gnu": "1.0.0-rc.15",
-                "@rolldown/binding-linux-x64-gnu": "1.0.0-rc.15",
-                "@rolldown/binding-linux-x64-musl": "1.0.0-rc.15",
-                "@rolldown/binding-openharmony-arm64": "1.0.0-rc.15",
-                "@rolldown/binding-wasm32-wasi": "1.0.0-rc.15",
-                "@rolldown/binding-win32-arm64-msvc": "1.0.0-rc.15",
-                "@rolldown/binding-win32-x64-msvc": "1.0.0-rc.15"
+                "@rolldown/binding-android-arm64": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "@rolldown/binding-darwin-arm64": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "@rolldown/binding-darwin-x64": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "@rolldown/binding-freebsd-x64": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "@rolldown/binding-linux-arm-gnueabihf": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "@rolldown/binding-linux-arm64-gnu": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "@rolldown/binding-linux-arm64-musl": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "@rolldown/binding-linux-ppc64-gnu": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "@rolldown/binding-linux-s390x-gnu": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "@rolldown/binding-linux-x64-gnu": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "@rolldown/binding-linux-x64-musl": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "@rolldown/binding-openharmony-arm64": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "@rolldown/binding-wasm32-wasi": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "@rolldown/binding-win32-arm64-msvc": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "@rolldown/binding-win32-x64-msvc": "1.0.0-rc.16"
             }
         },
+        "node_modules/rolldown/node_modules/@rolldown/pluginutils": {
+            "version": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+            "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@rolldown/pluginutils/-/pluginutils-1.0.0-rc.16.tgz",
+            "integrity": "sha512-45+YtqxLYKDWQouLKCrpIZhke+nXxhsw+qAHVzHDVwttyBlHNBVs2K25rDXrZzhpTp9w1FlAlvweV1H++fdZoA==",
+            "license": "MIT"
+        },
         "node_modules/rxjs": {
             "version": "7.8.2",
             "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/rxjs/-/rxjs-7.8.2.tgz",
@@ -2023,15 +2023,15 @@
             }
         },
         "node_modules/tailwindcss": {
-            "version": "4.2.2",
-            "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/tailwindcss/-/tailwindcss-4.2.2.tgz",
-            "integrity": "sha512-KWBIxs1Xb6NoLdMVqhbhgwZf2PGBpPEiwOqgI4pFIYbNTfBXiKYyWoTsXgBQ9WFg/OlhnvHaY+AEpW7wSmFo2Q==",
+            "version": "4.2.4",
+            "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/tailwindcss/-/tailwindcss-4.2.4.tgz",
+            "integrity": "sha512-HhKppgO81FQof5m6TEnuBWCZGgfRAWbaeOaGT00KOy/Pf/j6oUihdvBpA7ltCeAvZpFhW3j0PTclkxsd4IXYDA==",
             "license": "MIT"
         },
         "node_modules/tapable": {
-            "version": "2.3.2",
-            "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/tapable/-/tapable-2.3.2.tgz",
-            "integrity": "sha512-1MOpMXuhGzGL5TTCZFItxCc0AARf1EZFQkGqMm7ERKj8+Hgr5oLvJOVFcC+lRmR8hCe2S3jC4T5D7Vg/d7/fhA==",
+            "version": "2.3.3",
+            "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/tapable/-/tapable-2.3.3.tgz",
+            "integrity": "sha512-uxc/zpqFg6x7C8vOE7lh6Lbda8eEL9zmVm/PLeTPBRhh1xCgdWaQ+J1CUieGpIfm2HdtsUpRv+HshiasBMcc6A==",
             "license": "MIT",
             "engines": {
                 "node": ">=6"
@@ -2103,16 +2103,16 @@
             }
         },
         "node_modules/vite": {
-            "version": "8.0.8",
-            "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/vite/-/vite-8.0.8.tgz",
-            "integrity": "sha512-dbU7/iLVa8KZALJyLOBOQ88nOXtNG8vxKuOT4I2mD+Ya70KPceF4IAmDsmU0h1Qsn5bPrvsY9HJstCRh3hG6Uw==",
+            "version": "8.0.9",
+            "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/vite/-/vite-8.0.9.tgz",
+            "integrity": "sha512-t7g7GVRpMXjNpa67HaVWI/8BWtdVIQPCL2WoozXXA7LBGEFK4AkkKkHx2hAQf5x1GZSlcmEDPkVLSGahxnEEZw==",
             "license": "MIT",
             "dependencies": {
                 "lightningcss": "^1.32.0",
                 "picomatch": "^4.0.4",
-                "postcss": "^8.5.8",
-                "rolldown": "1.0.0-rc.15",
-                "tinyglobby": "^0.2.15"
+                "postcss": "^8.5.10",
+                "rolldown": "1.0.0-rc.16",
+                "tinyglobby": "^0.2.16"
             },
             "bin": {
                 "vite": "bin/vite.js"
@@ -2202,16 +2202,16 @@
             }
         },
         "node_modules/vue": {
-            "version": "3.5.32",
-            "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/vue/-/vue-3.5.32.tgz",
-            "integrity": "sha512-vM4z4Q9tTafVfMAK7IVzmxg34rSzTFMyIe0UUEijUCkn9+23lj0WRfA83dg7eQZIUlgOSGrkViIaCfqSAUXsMw==",
+            "version": "3.5.33",
+            "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/vue/-/vue-3.5.33.tgz",
+            "integrity": "sha512-1AgChhx5w3ALgT4oK3acm2Es/7jyZhWSVUfs3rOBlGQC0rjEDkS7G4lWlJJGGNQD+BV3reCwbQrOe1mPNwKHBQ==",
             "license": "MIT",
             "dependencies": {
-                "@vue/compiler-dom": "3.5.32",
-                "@vue/compiler-sfc": "3.5.32",
-                "@vue/runtime-dom": "3.5.32",
-                "@vue/server-renderer": "3.5.32",
-                "@vue/shared": "3.5.32"
+                "@vue/compiler-dom": "3.5.33",
+                "@vue/compiler-sfc": "3.5.33",
+                "@vue/runtime-dom": "3.5.33",
+                "@vue/server-renderer": "3.5.33",
+                "@vue/shared": "3.5.33"
             },
             "peerDependencies": {
                 "typescript": "*"

resources/css/app.css

@@ -8,6 +8,16 @@
 
 @custom-variant dark (&:where(.dark-mode-disabled));
 
+@layer components {
+    .pill {
+        @apply relative inline-flex items-center gap-1 h-10 px-2 rounded-full border bg-white border-zinc-200 text-zinc-700 transition-colors cursor-pointer hover:border-zinc-300;
+    }
+
+    .pill.is-active {
+        @apply bg-primary/10 border-primary text-primary;
+    }
+}
+
 @theme {
     --font-sans: 'Inter', ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', 'Noto Color Emoji';
 
@@ -51,6 +61,10 @@
 
     /* Display font */
     --font-display: 'Manrope', ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif;
+
+    /* Hero type pairing — swap these tokens to upgrade to Instrument Serif / Geist Mono later */
+    --font-serif: ui-serif, Georgia, Cambria, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif;
+    --font-mono: ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, Menlo, Monaco, Consolas, monospace;
 }
 
 
@@ -66,6 +80,15 @@
         backdrop-filter: blur(12px);
         border: 1px solid color-mix(in oklch, var(--color-border) 60%, transparent);
     }
+
+    .live-dot {
+        animation: live-pulse 2s ease-in-out infinite;
+    }
+
+    @keyframes live-pulse {
+        0%, 100% { opacity: 1; }
+        50% { opacity: 0.4; }
+    }
 }
 
 @layer base {

resources/js/components/LeafletMap.vue

@@ -1,38 +1,28 @@
 <template>
-	<div class="space-y-2">
-		<button
-			class="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-bold text-accent hover:text-accent-content transition-colors"
-			@click="toggleMap"
-		>
-			<iconify-icon :icon="isOpen ? 'lucide:chevron-up' : 'lucide:chevron-down'"></iconify-icon>
-			{{ isOpen ? 'Hide map' : 'Show map' }}
-		</button>
+	<div v-if="isOpen" id="leaflet-map-panel" class="space-y-2">
+		<div
+			ref="mapContainer"
+			class="w-full h-96 md:h-160 rounded-2xl overflow-hidden border border-zinc-300 shadow-sm"
+		></div>
 
-		<template v-if="isOpen">
-			<div
-				ref="mapContainer"
-				class="w-full h-72 rounded-2xl overflow-hidden border border-zinc-300 shadow-sm"
-			></div>
-
-			<div class="flex flex-wrap gap-3 text-xs text-zinc-500">
-                <span class="flex items-center gap-1.5">
-                    <span class="inline-block size-3 rounded-full bg-green-500"></span>
-                    Current (&lt;24h)
-                </span>
-				<span class="flex items-center gap-1.5">
-                    <span class="inline-block size-3 rounded-full bg-slate-500"></span>
-                    Recent (24–48h)
-                </span>
-				<span class="flex items-center gap-1.5">
-                    <span class="inline-block size-3 rounded-full bg-amber-500"></span>
-                    Stale (2–5 days)
-                </span>
-				<span class="flex items-center gap-1.5">
-                    <span class="inline-block size-3 rounded-full bg-red-500"></span>
-                    Outdated (5+ days)
-                </span>
-			</div>
-		</template>
+		<div class="flex flex-wrap gap-3 text-xs text-zinc-500">
+			<span class="flex items-center gap-1.5">
+				<span class="inline-block size-3 rounded-full bg-green-500"></span>
+				Current (&lt;24h)
+			</span>
+			<span class="flex items-center gap-1.5">
+				<span class="inline-block size-3 rounded-full bg-slate-500"></span>
+				Recent (24–48h)
+			</span>
+			<span class="flex items-center gap-1.5">
+				<span class="inline-block size-3 rounded-full bg-amber-500"></span>
+				Stale (2–5 days)
+			</span>
+			<span class="flex items-center gap-1.5">
+				<span class="inline-block size-3 rounded-full bg-red-500"></span>
+				Outdated (5+ days)
+			</span>
+		</div>
 	</div>
 </template>
 
@@ -87,13 +77,12 @@ function escHtml(str) {
 
 const props = defineProps({
 	stations: {type: Array, required: true},
-	defaultOpen: {type: Boolean, default: false},
+	isOpen: {type: Boolean, default: true},
 	radiusMiles: {type: Number, default: 10},
 	origin: {type: Object, default: null},
 })
 
 const mapContainer = ref(null)
-const isOpen = ref(false)
 let mapInstance = null
 let markersLayer = null
 let userMarker = null
@@ -102,8 +91,9 @@ function getZoomForRadius(radiusMiles) {
 	if (radiusMiles <= 1) return 16
 	if (radiusMiles <= 2) return 15
 	if (radiusMiles <= 5) return 14
-	if (radiusMiles <= 10) return 13
+	if (radiusMiles <= 10) return 11
 	if (radiusMiles <= 15) return 11
+	if (radiusMiles <= 20) return 10
 	if (radiusMiles <= 25) return 10
 	if (radiusMiles <= 50) return 9
 	return 8
@@ -174,6 +164,10 @@ function initMap() {
 
 	markersLayer = L.layerGroup().addTo(mapInstance)
 
+	mapInstance.on('zoomend', () => {
+		console.log('Map zoom:', mapInstance.getZoom())
+	})
+
 	locateUser()
 }
 
@@ -238,47 +232,45 @@ function renderMarkers() {
 	})
 
 	const zoom = getZoomForRadius(props.radiusMiles)
+	const center = props.origin?.lat != null && props.origin?.lng != null
+		? [props.origin.lat, props.origin.lng]
+		: bounds[0]
 
-	if (bounds.length === 1) {
-		mapInstance.setView(bounds[0], zoom)
-	} else {
-		mapInstance.fitBounds(bounds, {padding: [40, 40], maxZoom: zoom})
-	}
+	mapInstance.setView(center, zoom)
 }
 
-async function toggleMap() {
-	isOpen.value = !isOpen.value
-
-	if (isOpen.value) {
-		await nextTick()
-		initMap()
-		mapInstance.invalidateSize()
-		renderMarkers()
-	}
-}
-
-onMounted(async () => {
-	if (props.defaultOpen) {
-		isOpen.value = true
-		await nextTick()
-		initMap()
-		mapInstance.invalidateSize()
-		renderMarkers()
-	}
-})
-
-watch(() => props.stations, () => {
-	if (isOpen.value) {
-		renderMarkers()
-	}
-})
-
-onUnmounted(() => {
+function destroyMap() {
 	if (mapInstance) {
 		mapInstance.remove()
 		mapInstance = null
+		markersLayer = null
+		userMarker = null
+	}
+}
+
+async function openMap() {
+	await nextTick()
+	initMap()
+	mapInstance?.invalidateSize()
+	renderMarkers()
+}
+
+onMounted(() => {
+	if (props.isOpen) openMap()
+})
+
+watch(() => props.isOpen, (open) => {
+	if (open) openMap()
+	else destroyMap()
+})
+
+watch(() => props.stations, () => {
+	if (props.isOpen) {
+		renderMarkers()
 	}
 })
+
+onUnmounted(destroyMap)
 </script>
 
 <style>

resources/js/components/PostSearchFilters.vue

@@ -0,0 +1,193 @@
+<template>
+    <div class="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2 md:gap-2.5 py-3 border-b border-zinc-200">
+        <!-- Refine group -->
+        <span class="hidden md:inline text-xs font-mono uppercase tracking-widest text-zinc-400 mr-1">
+            Refine
+        </span>
+
+        <label :class="{ 'is-active': fuelType !== DEFAULTS.fuelType }" class="pill group">
+            <iconify-icon class="text-sm opacity-70" icon="lucide:fuel"></iconify-icon>
+            <span class="text-sm font-medium">{{ fuelLabel }}</span>
+            <iconify-icon class="text-sm opacity-50 group-hover:opacity-100" icon="lucide:chevron-down"></iconify-icon>
+            <select
+                v-model="fuelType"
+                aria-label="Fuel type"
+                class="absolute inset-0 opacity-0 cursor-pointer"
+                name="fuelType"
+            >
+                <option v-for="fuel in FUEL_TYPES" :key="fuel.value" :value="fuel.value">{{ fuel.label }}</option>
+            </select>
+        </label>
+
+        <label :class="{ 'is-active': radius !== DEFAULTS.radius }" class="pill group">
+            <iconify-icon class="text-sm opacity-70" icon="lucide:circle-dot"></iconify-icon>
+            <span class="text-sm font-medium">{{ radius }} miles</span>
+            <iconify-icon class="text-sm opacity-50 group-hover:opacity-100" icon="lucide:chevron-down"></iconify-icon>
+            <select
+                v-model.number="radius"
+                aria-label="Search radius"
+                class="absolute inset-0 opacity-0 cursor-pointer"
+                name="radius"
+            >
+                <option :value="5">5 miles</option>
+                <option :value="10">10 miles</option>
+                <option :value="20">20 miles</option>
+            </select>
+        </label>
+
+        <button
+            :aria-expanded="mapOpen"
+            :class="{ 'is-active': mapOpen }"
+            aria-controls="leaflet-map-panel"
+            class="pill"
+            type="button"
+            @click="emit('toggle-map')"
+        >
+            <iconify-icon :icon="mapOpen ? 'lucide:map' : 'lucide:map-off'" class="text-sm opacity-70"></iconify-icon>
+            <span class="text-sm font-medium">{{ mapOpen ? 'Hide map' : 'Show map' }}</span>
+            <iconify-icon
+                :class="mapOpen ? 'rotate-180' : ''"
+                class="text-sm opacity-60 transition-transform duration-200"
+                icon="lucide:chevron-down"
+            ></iconify-icon>
+        </button>
+
+        <button
+            v-if="hasActive"
+            class="inline-flex items-center gap-1 h-10 px-3 text-sm text-zinc-500 hover:text-zinc-900 transition-colors cursor-pointer"
+            type="button"
+            @click="resetFilters"
+        >
+            <iconify-icon class="text-sm" icon="lucide:x"></iconify-icon>
+            Clear
+        </button>
+
+        <!-- Force Sort to a new line on mobile only -->
+        <div aria-hidden="true" class="basis-full md:hidden"></div>
+
+        <!-- Sort group -->
+        <span class="hidden md:inline text-xs font-mono uppercase tracking-widest text-zinc-400 mx-1">
+            Sort
+        </span>
+
+        <button
+            v-for="option in sortOptions"
+            :key="option.value"
+            :class="{ 'is-active': sort === option.value }"
+            class="pill"
+            type="button"
+            @click="sort = option.value"
+        >
+            <iconify-icon :icon="option.icon" class="text-sm opacity-70"></iconify-icon>
+            <span class="text-sm font-medium">{{ option.label }}</span>
+        </button>
+
+        <label
+            v-if="brands.length > 1"
+            :class="{ 'is-active': brandFilter }"
+            class="pill group"
+        >
+            <iconify-icon class="text-sm opacity-70" icon="lucide:tag"></iconify-icon>
+            <span class="text-sm font-medium">{{ brandFilter || 'All brands' }}</span>
+            <iconify-icon class="text-sm opacity-50 group-hover:opacity-100" icon="lucide:chevron-down"></iconify-icon>
+            <select
+                :value="brandFilter"
+                aria-label="Filter by brand"
+                class="absolute inset-0 opacity-0 cursor-pointer"
+                @change="emit('update:brandFilter', $event.target.value)"
+            >
+                <option value="">All brands</option>
+                <option v-for="brand in brands" :key="brand" :value="brand">{{ brand }}</option>
+            </select>
+        </label>
+
+        <span class="ml-auto text-sm text-zinc-500 font-medium">
+            {{ stationCount }} station{{ stationCount !== 1 ? 's' : '' }} found
+        </span>
+    </div>
+</template>
+
+<script setup>
+import { ref, computed, watch, nextTick } from 'vue'
+import { FUEL_TYPES } from '../constants/fuelTypes.js'
+
+const DEFAULTS = Object.freeze({
+    fuelType: 'e10',
+    radius: 10,
+    sort: 'reliable',
+})
+
+const sortOptions = [
+    { label: 'Reliable', value: 'reliable', icon: 'lucide:shield-check' },
+    { label: 'Price', value: 'price', icon: 'lucide:pound-sterling' },
+    { label: 'Distance', value: 'distance', icon: 'lucide:map-pin' },
+    { label: 'Updated', value: 'updated', icon: 'lucide:clock' },
+]
+
+const props = defineProps({
+    initial: { type: Object, default: () => ({}) },
+    brands: { type: Array, default: () => [] },
+    brandFilter: { type: String, default: '' },
+    mapOpen: { type: Boolean, default: true },
+    stationCount: { type: Number, default: 0 },
+})
+
+const emit = defineEmits(['search', 'toggle-map', 'update:brandFilter'])
+
+const postcode = ref('')
+const coords = ref(null)
+const fuelType = ref(DEFAULTS.fuelType)
+const radius = ref(DEFAULTS.radius)
+const sort = ref(DEFAULTS.sort)
+
+let hydrating = false
+
+watch(() => props.initial, (v) => {
+    if (!v) return
+    hydrating = true
+    if (typeof v.postcode === 'string') postcode.value = v.postcode
+    if (v.lat != null && v.lng != null) coords.value = { lat: v.lat, lng: v.lng }
+    if (v.fuelType) fuelType.value = v.fuelType
+    if (v.radius != null) radius.value = Number(v.radius)
+    if (v.sort) sort.value = v.sort
+    nextTick(() => { hydrating = false })
+}, { immediate: true, deep: true })
+
+watch([fuelType, radius, sort], () => {
+    if (hydrating) return
+    if (postcode.value.trim() || coords.value) emitSearch()
+})
+
+const fuelLabel = computed(() => {
+    return FUEL_TYPES.find(f => f.value === fuelType.value)?.label ?? 'Fuel'
+})
+
+const hasActive = computed(() => (
+    fuelType.value !== DEFAULTS.fuelType
+    || radius.value !== DEFAULTS.radius
+    || sort.value !== DEFAULTS.sort
+    || Boolean(props.brandFilter)
+))
+
+function resetFilters() {
+    fuelType.value = DEFAULTS.fuelType
+    radius.value = DEFAULTS.radius
+    sort.value = DEFAULTS.sort
+    if (props.brandFilter) emit('update:brandFilter', '')
+}
+
+function emitSearch() {
+    const hasPostcode = postcode.value.trim().length > 0
+    const hasCoords = coords.value !== null
+    if (!hasPostcode && !hasCoords) return
+
+    emit('search', {
+        postcode: hasPostcode ? postcode.value.trim() : null,
+        lat: hasCoords ? coords.value.lat : null,
+        lng: hasCoords ? coords.value.lng : null,
+        fuelType: fuelType.value,
+        radius: radius.value,
+        sort: sort.value,
+    })
+}
+</script>

resources/js/components/PredictionCard.vue

@@ -1,74 +1,41 @@
 <template>
-    <div class="relative">
-        <!-- Gated overlay for free/guest users -->
+    <div>
+        <!-- Loading state -->
         <div
-            v-if="!isPaidTier"
-            class="absolute inset-0 z-10 rounded-2xl backdrop-blur-sm bg-white/60 flex flex-col items-center justify-center gap-3 text-center px-6"
+            v-if="loading"
+            class="p-6 bg-white rounded-2xl border border-zinc-300 animate-pulse space-y-2"
         >
-            <iconify-icon class="text-accent text-3xl" icon="lucide:lock"></iconify-icon>
-            <p class="font-bold text-zinc-800">Price predictions are available on paid plans</p>
+            <div class="h-4 bg-zinc-200 rounded w-1/3"></div>
+            <div class="h-6 bg-zinc-200 rounded w-2/3"></div>
+        </div>
+
+        <!-- Free / guest: compact one-liner -->
+        <div
+            v-else-if="!isPaidTier"
+            class="flex items-center gap-3 px-4 py-3 bg-white rounded-2xl border border-zinc-300"
+        >
+            <div :class="['shrink-0 w-10 h-10 rounded-full flex items-center justify-center', accentBg]">
+                <iconify-icon :icon="genericIcon" class="text-xl text-white"></iconify-icon>
+            </div>
+            <p class="flex-1 text-sm text-zinc-800 font-medium leading-snug">
+                {{ genericSentence }}
+            </p>
             <a
+                class="hidden sm:inline-flex shrink-0 text-sm font-bold text-accent hover:text-accent-content whitespace-nowrap"
                 href="/pricing"
-                class="px-6 py-2 bg-accent text-white rounded-full text-sm font-bold hover:bg-accent-content transition-colors"
             >
-                Upgrade from £0.99/mo
+                See full prediction →
             </a>
         </div>
 
-        <!-- Card content (blurred for free users, fully visible for paid) -->
-        <div
-            :class="['p-6 bg-white rounded-2xl border border-zinc-300 space-y-4', !isPaidTier && 'select-none pointer-events-none']"
-        >
-            <p class="text-xs font-bold uppercase tracking-widest text-zinc-500">Price Prediction</p>
-
-            <!-- Loading state -->
-            <template v-if="loading">
-                <div class="animate-pulse space-y-2">
-                    <div class="h-8 bg-zinc-300 rounded w-1/2"></div>
-                    <div class="h-4 bg-zinc-300 rounded w-3/4"></div>
-                </div>
-            </template>
-
-            <!-- Loaded state -->
-            <template v-else-if="prediction">
-                <h3
-                    class="text-2xl font-black"
-                    :class="prediction.action === 'fill_now' ? 'text-mauve' : prediction.action === 'wait' ? 'text-teal' : 'text-tan'"
-                >
-                    {{ actionLabel }}
-                </h3>
-
-                <div class="w-full h-2 bg-zinc-200 rounded-full overflow-hidden">
-                    <div
-                        class="h-full rounded-full transition-all"
-                        :class="prediction.action === 'fill_now' ? 'bg-mauve' : 'bg-teal'"
-                        :style="{ width: prediction.confidence_score + '%' }"
-                    ></div>
-                </div>
-
-                <p class="text-sm text-zinc-500 leading-relaxed">{{ prediction.reasoning }}</p>
-
-                <div class="flex items-center gap-4 text-xs text-zinc-500 font-medium">
-                    <span>Avg: {{ prediction.current_avg }}p</span>
-                    <span>Confidence: {{ prediction.confidence_label }}</span>
-                    <span v-if="prediction.predicted_change_pence">
-                        {{ prediction.predicted_change_pence > 0 ? '+' : '' }}{{ prediction.predicted_change_pence.toFixed(1) }}p expected
-                    </span>
-                </div>
-            </template>
-
-            <!-- Empty state (placeholder for gated view) -->
-            <template v-else>
-                <h3 class="text-2xl font-black text-mauve">Fill up now</h3>
-                <div class="h-2 bg-zinc-200 rounded-full"><div class="h-full bg-mauve w-4/5 rounded-full"></div></div>
-                <p class="text-sm text-zinc-500">Prices in your area are rising — best to fill up today.</p>
-            </template>
-        </div>
+        <!-- Paid: full prediction -->
+        <PredictionFull v-else :prediction="prediction" />
     </div>
 </template>
 
 <script setup>
 import { computed } from 'vue'
+import PredictionFull from './PredictionFull.vue'
 
 const props = defineProps({
     prediction: { type: Object, default: null },
@@ -76,12 +43,23 @@ const props = defineProps({
     isPaidTier: { type: Boolean, default: false },
 })
 
-const actionLabel = computed(() => {
-    if (!props.prediction) return ''
-    return {
-        fill_now: 'Fill up now',
-        wait: 'Wait — prices falling',
-        no_signal: 'No clear signal',
-    }[props.prediction.action] ?? 'Check local prices'
-})
+const direction = computed(() => props.prediction?.predicted_direction ?? 'stable')
+
+const genericSentence = computed(() => ({
+    up: 'UK fuel prices are trending upward this week.',
+    down: 'UK fuel prices have been falling this week.',
+    stable: 'UK fuel prices have been steady this week.',
+})[direction.value] ?? 'UK fuel prices have been steady this week.')
+
+const genericIcon = computed(() => ({
+    up: 'lucide:trending-up',
+    down: 'lucide:trending-down',
+    stable: 'lucide:minus',
+})[direction.value] ?? 'lucide:minus')
+
+const accentBg = computed(() => ({
+    up: 'bg-mauve',
+    down: 'bg-teal',
+    stable: 'bg-tan',
+})[direction.value] ?? 'bg-tan')
 </script>

resources/js/components/PredictionFull.vue

@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+<template>
+    <div
+        v-if="prediction"
+        class="p-4 sm:p-5 bg-white rounded-2xl border border-zinc-300"
+    >
+        <div class="grid gap-4 lg:grid-cols-2 lg:gap-5">
+            <div class="space-y-1.5">
+                <p class="font-mono text-[10px] uppercase tracking-widest text-zinc-500 mb-1 truncate">Price Prediction</p>
+                <h3 class="text-sm font-semibold text-zinc-800 leading-snug">{{ actionLabel }}</h3>
+                <p class="text-sm text-zinc-500 leading-snug">{{ prediction.reasoning }}</p>
+                <p class="text-sm text-zinc-500 leading-snug">
+                    <span>Avg {{ prediction.current_avg }}p</span>
+                    <span class="text-zinc-400"> · </span>
+                    <span>Confidence {{ prediction.confidence_label }}</span>
+                    <template v-if="prediction.predicted_change_pence">
+                        <span class="text-zinc-400"> · </span>
+                        <span>{{ prediction.predicted_change_pence > 0 ? '+' : '' }}{{ prediction.predicted_change_pence.toFixed(1) }}p expected</span>
+                    </template>
+                </p>
+            </div>
+
+            <div
+                v-if="weeklyHeadline || todayContext"
+                class="space-y-1.5 pt-3 border-t border-zinc-200 lg:pt-0 lg:border-t-0 lg:border-l lg:pl-5"
+            >
+                <p class="font-mono text-[10px] uppercase tracking-widest text-zinc-500 mb-1 truncate">Last 7 days</p>
+                <p v-if="weeklyHeadline" class="text-sm font-semibold text-zinc-800 leading-snug">{{ weeklyHeadline }}</p>
+                <p v-if="todayContext" class="text-sm text-zinc-500 leading-snug">{{ todayContext }}</p>
+            </div>
+        </div>
+    </div>
+</template>
+
+<script setup>
+import { computed } from 'vue'
+
+const props = defineProps({
+    prediction: { type: Object, default: null },
+})
+
+const actionLabel = computed(() => {
+    if (!props.prediction) return ''
+    return {
+        fill_now: 'Fill up now',
+        wait: 'Wait — prices falling',
+        no_signal: 'No clear signal',
+    }[props.prediction.action] ?? 'Check local prices'
+})
+
+const weekly = computed(() => props.prediction?.weekly_summary ?? null)
+
+function formatPence(value) {
+    if (value === null || value === undefined) return null
+    return Number(value).toFixed(1) + 'p'
+}
+
+function formatDateShort(iso) {
+    if (!iso) return ''
+    const d = new Date(iso)
+    if (Number.isNaN(d.getTime())) return iso
+    return d.toLocaleDateString('en-GB', { weekday: 'short', day: 'numeric' })
+}
+
+const weeklyHeadline = computed(() => {
+    const w = weekly.value
+    if (!w || !w.cheapest_day || !w.priciest_day || w.last_7_days_change_pence === null) {
+        return null
+    }
+    const change = w.last_7_days_change_pence
+    const lead = change > 0.05
+        ? `Avg rose ${change.toFixed(1)}p`
+        : change < -0.05
+            ? `Avg fell ${Math.abs(change).toFixed(1)}p`
+            : 'Avg held steady'
+    return `${lead} — cheapest ${formatDateShort(w.cheapest_day.date)} (${formatPence(w.cheapest_day.avg)}), priciest ${formatDateShort(w.priciest_day.date)} (${formatPence(w.priciest_day.avg)}).`
+})
+
+const todayContext = computed(() => {
+    const w = weekly.value
+    if (!w) return null
+
+    const today = formatPence(w.today_avg)
+    const tomorrow = formatPence(w.tomorrow_estimated_avg)
+
+    if (today && tomorrow) {
+        return `Today ${today}; tomorrow ≈ ${tomorrow}.`
+    }
+    if (today) {
+        return `Today ${today}.`
+    }
+    return null
+})
+</script>

resources/js/components/SearchBar.vue

@@ -1,139 +0,0 @@
-<template>
-    <div class="flex flex-col gap-3 max-w-md w-full">
-        <!-- Row 1: postcode + button -->
-        <div class="flex flex-col sm:flex-row gap-3">
-            <div class="relative flex-1">
-                <label for="postcode-input" class="sr-only">Postcode or city</label>
-                <button
-                    :disabled="locating"
-                    aria-label="Use my location"
-                    class="absolute right-3 top-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 flex items-center gap-1.5 px-3 py-1.5
-                    bg-primary/85
-                    text-white rounded-sm  text-sm font-semibold transition-opacity hover:opacity-80"
-                    type="button"
-                    @click="useMyLocation"
-                >
-					<iconify-icon icon="lucide:locate-fixed" style="font-size:16px;"></iconify-icon>
-					<span class="hidden sr-only">Near me</span>
-                </button>
-                <input
-                    id="postcode-input"
-                    v-model="postcode"
-                    type="text"
-                    :placeholder="coords ? 'Using your current location' : 'Enter postcode, e.g. SW1A 1AA'"
-                    class="w-full h-14 pr-28 pl-4 bg-white border border-zinc-300 rounded-xl focus:outline-none focus:ring-2 focus:ring-accent shadow-inner text-base"
-                    @keyup.enter="onSearch"
-                />
-            </div>
-            <button
-                @click="onSearch"
-                :disabled="!postcode.trim() && !coords"
-                class="h-14 px-8 bg-primary text-white rounded-xl font-bold text-base shadow-xl hover:bg-primary-dark transition-all disabled:cursor-not-allowed"
-            >
-                Find Prices
-            </button>
-        </div>
-
-        <!-- Row 2: fuel type + radius + sort -->
-        <div class="grid grid-cols-3 gap-2">
-            <select
-                v-model="fuelType"
-                aria-label="Fuel type"
-                class="min-w-0 h-10 px-2 bg-white border border-zinc-300 rounded-xl text-sm font-medium text-zinc-700 focus:outline-none focus:ring-2 focus:ring-accent truncate"
-            >
-                <option v-for="fuel in FUEL_TYPES" :key="fuel.value" :value="fuel.value">
-                    {{ fuel.label }}
-                </option>
-            </select>
-            <select
-                v-model="radius"
-                aria-label="Search radius"
-                class="min-w-0 h-10 px-2 bg-white border border-zinc-300 rounded-xl text-sm font-medium text-zinc-700 focus:outline-none focus:ring-2 focus:ring-accent"
-            >
-                <!-- <option :value="2">2 miles</option> -->
-
-                <option :value="5">5 miles</option>
-                <option :value="10">10 miles</option>
-                <option :value="20">20 miles</option>
-            </select>
-            <select
-                v-model="sort"
-                aria-label="Sort by"
-                class="min-w-0 h-10 px-2 bg-white border border-zinc-300 rounded-xl text-sm font-medium text-zinc-700 focus:outline-none focus:ring-2 focus:ring-accent"
-            >
-                <option value="reliable">Reliable</option>
-                <option value="price">Price</option>
-                <option value="distance">Distance</option>
-                <option value="updated">Updated</option>
-            </select>
-        </div>
-    </div>
-</template>
-
-<script setup>
-import { ref, watch, nextTick } from 'vue'
-import { FUEL_TYPES } from '../constants/fuelTypes.js'
-
-const props = defineProps({
-    initial: { type: Object, default: () => ({}) },
-})
-
-const emit = defineEmits(['search'])
-
-const postcode = ref('')
-const coords = ref(null)
-const fuelType = ref('e10')
-const radius = ref(10)
-const sort = ref('reliable')
-const locating = ref(false)
-
-let hydrating = false
-
-watch(() => props.initial, (v) => {
-    if (!v) return
-    hydrating = true
-    if (typeof v.postcode === 'string') postcode.value = v.postcode
-    if (v.lat != null && v.lng != null) coords.value = { lat: v.lat, lng: v.lng }
-    if (v.fuelType) fuelType.value = v.fuelType
-    if (v.radius != null) radius.value = Number(v.radius)
-    if (v.sort) sort.value = v.sort
-    nextTick(() => { hydrating = false })
-}, { immediate: true, deep: true })
-
-watch(postcode, () => { coords.value = null })
-
-watch([fuelType, radius, sort], () => {
-    if (hydrating) return
-    if (postcode.value.trim() || coords.value) onSearch()
-})
-
-function useMyLocation() {
-    if (!navigator.geolocation) return
-    locating.value = true
-    navigator.geolocation.getCurrentPosition(
-        ({ coords: c }) => {
-            coords.value = { lat: c.latitude, lng: c.longitude }
-            postcode.value = ''
-            locating.value = false
-            onSearch()
-        },
-        () => { locating.value = false },
-        { timeout: 8000, enableHighAccuracy: false, maximumAge: 30000 },
-    )
-}
-
-function onSearch() {
-    const hasPostcode = postcode.value.trim().length > 0
-    const hasCoords = coords.value !== null
-    if (!hasPostcode && !hasCoords) return
-
-    emit('search', {
-        postcode: hasPostcode ? postcode.value.trim() : null,
-        lat: hasCoords ? coords.value.lat : null,
-        lng: hasCoords ? coords.value.lng : null,
-        fuelType: fuelType.value,
-        radius: radius.value,
-        sort: sort.value,
-    })
-}
-</script>

resources/js/components/StationCard.vue

@@ -13,18 +13,15 @@
     >
         <div class="flex justify-between items-start gap-3">
             <div class="space-y-0.5 min-w-0 flex-1">
-                <p v-if="brandLabel" class="text-[10px] font-black uppercase tracking-widest text-zinc-500">
-                    {{ brandLabel }}
-                </p>
-                <h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-zinc-800 truncate">{{ station.name }}</h4>
+                <h4 class="font-semibold text-sm text-zinc-800 truncate">{{ displayName }}</h4>
                 <template v-if="!expanded">
                     <p class="text-xs text-zinc-500 flex items-center gap-1">
                         <iconify-icon class="text-xs" icon="lucide:map-pin"></iconify-icon>
-                        <span class="truncate">{{ locationLine }}</span>
+                        <span>{{ distanceMiles }} mi</span>
                     </p>
-                    <p v-if="updatedAgo" :class="[priceColor, 'text-xs flex items-center gap-1 font-semibold']">
+                    <p v-if="updatedAgo" :class="[priceColor, 'text-xs flex items-center gap-1']">
                         <iconify-icon class="text-xs" icon="lucide:clock"></iconify-icon>
-                        <span>Updated {{ updatedAgo }}</span>
+                        <span>{{ updatedAgo }}</span>
                     </p>
                 </template>
             </div>
@@ -38,14 +35,14 @@
             >
                 <iconify-icon class="text-lg" icon="lucide:navigation"></iconify-icon>
             </a>
-            <div class="text-right shrink-0">
-                <div :class="priceColor" class="text-xl font-black">
-                    {{ station.price }}<span class="text-sm font-bold uppercase ml-0.5">p</span>
+            <div class="text-right shrink-0 font-mono font-medium">
+                <div :class="priceColor" class="text-zinc-900 tabular-nums">
+                    {{ station.price }}p
                 </div>
-                <p :class="priceColor" class="text-[10px] font-bold uppercase tracking-wider">
+                <p :class="priceColor" class="text-[10px]">
                     {{ statusLabel }}
                 </p>
-                <p v-if="priceDelta" :class="priceDeltaColor" class="text-[10px] font-bold mt-0.5">
+                <p v-if="priceDelta" :class="priceDeltaColor" class="text-[11px] font-semibold mt-0.5">
                     {{ priceDelta }}
                 </p>
             </div>
@@ -60,6 +57,10 @@
             leave-to-class="opacity-0"
         >
             <div v-if="expanded" class="border-t border-zinc-200 pt-3 space-y-3">
+                <p v-if="brandLabel" class="font-mono text-[10px] uppercase tracking-widest text-zinc-500 mb-1 truncate">
+                    {{ brandLabel }}
+                </p>
+
                 <div v-if="badges.length" class="flex flex-wrap gap-1.5">
                     <span
                         v-for="badge in badges"
@@ -207,9 +208,10 @@ const statusLabel = computed(() => reliabilityInfo.value.label)
 
 const distanceMiles = computed(() => (props.station.distance_km * 0.621371).toFixed(1))
 
-const locationLine = computed(() => {
-    const parts = [props.station.address, `${distanceMiles.value} mi`].filter(Boolean)
-    return parts.join(' • ')
+const displayName = computed(() => {
+    const name = props.station.name ?? ''
+    if (name !== name.toUpperCase()) return name
+    return name.toLowerCase().replace(/\b\w/g, c => c.toUpperCase())
 })
 
 const fullAddress = computed(() => {

resources/js/components/StationList.vue

@@ -1,39 +1,5 @@
 <template>
     <div class="space-y-3">
-        <!-- Sort tabs + brand filter -->
-        <div class="flex gap-2 flex-wrap items-center">
-            <button
-                v-for="option in sortOptions"
-                :key="option.value"
-                @click="emit('sort', option.value)"
-                :class="[
-                    'h-10 px-4 rounded-xl text-sm font-bold transition-colors',
-                    currentSort === option.value
-                        ? 'bg-accent text-white'
-                        : 'bg-white border border-zinc-300 text-zinc-500 hover:border-accent'
-                ]"
-            >
-                {{ option.label }}
-            </button>
-
-            <select
-                v-if="availableBrands.length > 1"
-                v-model="brandFilter"
-                aria-label="Filter by brand"
-                class="min-w-0 h-10 px-2 bg-white border border-zinc-300 rounded-xl text-sm font-medium text-zinc-700 focus:outline-none focus:ring-2 focus:ring-accent"
-            >
-                <option value="">All brands</option>
-                <option v-for="brand in availableBrands" :key="brand" :value="brand">{{ brand }}</option>
-            </select>
-        </div>
-
-        <!-- Count -->
-        <p class="text-sm text-zinc-500 font-medium">
-            {{ filteredStations.length }} station{{ filteredStations.length !== 1 ? 's' : '' }}
-            <span v-if="brandFilter">matching <strong>{{ brandFilter }}</strong></span>
-            <span v-else>found</span>
-        </p>
-
         <!-- Grouped results when sorting by reliability -->
         <template v-if="currentSort === 'reliable'">
             <section v-if="reliable.length" class="space-y-2">
@@ -72,12 +38,22 @@
             </section>
 
             <section v-if="outdated.length" class="space-y-2 pt-4">
-                <header class="flex items-center gap-2">
+                <button
+                    :aria-expanded="outdatedOpen"
+                    class="flex items-center gap-2 w-full text-left py-3 px-3 rounded-lg hover:bg-zinc-100/60 transition-colors"
+                    type="button"
+                    @click="outdatedOpen = !outdatedOpen"
+                >
                     <iconify-icon class="text-status-bad text-lg" icon="lucide:triangle-alert"></iconify-icon>
                     <h3 class="font-black text-zinc-800">Outdated</h3>
-                    <span class="text-xs text-zinc-500 font-medium">Over 7 days old — likely inaccurate</span>
-                </header>
-                <div class="opacity-60">
+                    <span class="text-xs text-zinc-500 font-medium">Over 7 days old — likely inaccurate ({{ outdated.length }})</span>
+                    <iconify-icon
+                        :class="{ 'rotate-180': outdatedOpen }"
+                        class="text-zinc-500 text-base ml-auto transition-transform"
+                        icon="lucide:chevron-down"
+                    ></iconify-icon>
+                </button>
+                <div v-if="outdatedOpen" class="opacity-60">
                     <StationCard
                         v-for="station in outdated"
                         :key="station.station_id"
@@ -94,7 +70,7 @@
         <!-- Flat list for other sort modes -->
         <div v-else class="space-y-2">
             <StationCard
-                v-for="station in filteredStations"
+                v-for="station in stations"
                 :key="station.station_id"
                 :avg-pence="avgPence"
                 :lowest-price="lowestPrice"
@@ -115,42 +91,20 @@ const props = defineProps({
     origin: { type: Object, default: null },
 })
 
-const emit = defineEmits(['sort'])
+const reliable = computed(() => props.stations.filter(s => s.reliability === 'reliable'))
+const stale = computed(() => props.stations.filter(s => s.reliability === 'stale'))
+const outdated = computed(() => props.stations.filter(s => s.reliability === 'outdated'))
 
-const brandFilter = ref('')
-
-const sortOptions = [
-    { label: 'Reliable', value: 'reliable' },
-    { label: 'Price', value: 'price' },
-    { label: 'Distance', value: 'distance' },
-    { label: 'Updated', value: 'updated' },
-]
-
-const availableBrands = computed(() => {
-    const brands = new Set()
-    props.stations.forEach(s => {
-        if (s.brand) brands.add(s.brand)
-    })
-    return [...brands].sort((a, b) => a.localeCompare(b))
-})
-
-const filteredStations = computed(() => {
-    if (!brandFilter.value) return props.stations
-    return props.stations.filter(s => s.brand === brandFilter.value)
-})
-
-const reliable = computed(() => filteredStations.value.filter(s => s.reliability === 'reliable'))
-const stale = computed(() => filteredStations.value.filter(s => s.reliability === 'stale'))
-const outdated = computed(() => filteredStations.value.filter(s => s.reliability === 'outdated'))
+const outdatedOpen = ref(false)
 
 const lowestPrice = computed(() => {
-    if (!reliable.value.length && !filteredStations.value.length) return null
-    const pool = reliable.value.length ? reliable.value : filteredStations.value
+    if (!reliable.value.length && !props.stations.length) return null
+    const pool = reliable.value.length ? reliable.value : props.stations
     return Math.min(...pool.map(s => s.price_pence))
 })
 
 const avgPence = computed(() => {
-    const prices = filteredStations.value.map(s => s.price_pence).filter(p => typeof p === 'number')
+    const prices = props.stations.map(s => s.price_pence).filter(p => typeof p === 'number')
     if (!prices.length) return null
     return prices.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / prices.length
 })

resources/js/components/UpsellBanner.vue

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+<template>
+    <div
+        v-if="!isPaidTier"
+        class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-2xl border border-accent/30 bg-gradient-to-r from-accent/10 via-accent/5 to-transparent p-5 sm:p-6"
+    >
+        <div class="flex flex-col gap-4 sm:flex-row sm:items-center sm:justify-between">
+            <div class="flex items-start gap-4">
+                <div class="shrink-0 w-11 h-11 rounded-2xl bg-accent text-white flex items-center justify-center shadow-md">
+                    <iconify-icon class="text-xl" icon="lucide:sparkles"></iconify-icon>
+                </div>
+                <div class="space-y-1">
+                    <h3 class="text-lg sm:text-xl font-black text-zinc-800 leading-tight">
+                        Stop guessing. Get a buy-or-wait alert before every fill-up.
+                    </h3>
+                    <p class="text-sm text-zinc-500">
+                        14-day predictions + daily price-drop alerts across
+                        <span class="font-bold text-zinc-800">{{ stationCountLabel }}</span> UK stations.
+                        From <span class="font-bold text-zinc-800">£0.99/mo</span>.
+                    </p>
+                </div>
+            </div>
+            <a
+                :href="ctaHref"
+                class="shrink-0 inline-flex items-center justify-center gap-2 px-5 py-3 rounded-xl bg-accent text-white text-sm font-black shadow-lg hover:bg-accent-content transition-colors"
+            >
+                {{ ctaLabel }}
+                <iconify-icon class="text-base" icon="lucide:arrow-right"></iconify-icon>
+            </a>
+        </div>
+    </div>
+</template>
+
+<script setup>
+import { computed } from 'vue'
+import { useAuth } from '../composables/useAuth.js'
+
+const props = defineProps({
+    stationCount: { type: Number, default: null },
+})
+
+const { isAuthenticated, isPaidTier } = useAuth()
+
+const stationCountLabel = computed(() => {
+    if (!props.stationCount) {
+        return '14,500+'
+    }
+    return new Intl.NumberFormat('en-GB').format(props.stationCount)
+})
+
+const ctaHref = computed(() => isAuthenticated.value ? '#pricing' : '/register?tier=plus&cadence=monthly')
+const ctaLabel = computed(() => isAuthenticated.value ? 'See plans' : 'Start saving')
+</script>

resources/js/components/landing/HeroSearch.vue

@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
+<template>
+    <form class="w-full max-w-xl" @submit.prevent="submitPostcode">
+        <label class="flex items-center gap-2 h-14 md:h-15 pl-3.5 md:pl-4 pr-1.5 md:pr-2 bg-white md:bg-surface border border-zinc-200 rounded-2xl focus-within:border-primary transition-colors md:shadow-[0_20px_40px_-20px_rgba(0,0,0,0.12)]">
+            <iconify-icon class="text-zinc-400 text-lg shrink-0" icon="lucide:map-pin"></iconify-icon>
+            <input
+                v-model="postcode"
+                autocomplete="postal-code"
+                class="flex-1 min-w-0 bg-transparent outline-none text-[15px] md:text-base placeholder:text-zinc-400"
+                placeholder="Postcode"
+                type="text"
+            />
+
+            <!-- Geolocation icon-button — visible on mobile AND desktop -->
+            <button
+                :disabled="locating"
+                aria-label="Use my location"
+                class="w-11 h-11 rounded-[10px] bg-zinc-100 text-primary inline-flex items-center justify-center shrink-0 hover:bg-zinc-200 transition-colors disabled:opacity-70"
+                type="button"
+                @click="useMyLocation"
+            >
+                <iconify-icon :class="{ 'animate-spin': locating }" :icon="locating ? 'lucide:loader-circle' : 'lucide:locate-fixed'" class="text-lg"></iconify-icon>
+            </button>
+
+            <!-- Desktop-only inline submit -->
+            <button
+                class="hidden md:inline-flex h-12 px-5 ml-1 rounded-xl bg-primary text-white font-medium text-[15px] items-center gap-2 hover:opacity-90 transition"
+                type="submit"
+            >
+                Check prices
+                <iconify-icon icon="lucide:arrow-right"></iconify-icon>
+            </button>
+        </label>
+
+        <!-- Mobile-only full-width submit -->
+        <button
+            class="md:hidden w-full mt-2.5 h-14 rounded-2xl bg-primary text-white font-medium text-base inline-flex items-center justify-center gap-2 shadow-lg hover:opacity-90 transition"
+            type="submit"
+        >
+            Check prices
+            <iconify-icon class="text-lg" icon="lucide:arrow-right"></iconify-icon>
+        </button>
+
+        <div class="mt-3 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-3 gap-y-1 text-xs text-zinc-400 justify-center md:justify-start">
+            <span class="hidden md:inline text-zinc-300">·</span>
+            <span class="hidden md:inline font-mono">Try SW1A 1AA · M1 1AD · EH1 1YZ</span>
+        </div>
+    </form>
+</template>
+
+<script setup>
+import { ref, watch } from 'vue'
+
+const props = defineProps({
+    initial: { type: Object, default: () => ({}) },
+    fuelType: { type: String, default: 'e10' },
+    radius: { type: Number, default: 10 },
+    sort: { type: String, default: 'reliable' },
+})
+
+const emit = defineEmits(['search'])
+
+const postcode = ref('')
+const locating = ref(false)
+
+watch(() => props.initial, (v) => {
+    if (!v) return
+    if (typeof v.postcode === 'string') postcode.value = v.postcode
+}, { immediate: true, deep: true })
+
+function submitPostcode() {
+    const trimmed = postcode.value.trim()
+    if (!trimmed) return
+    emit('search', {
+        postcode: trimmed,
+        lat: null,
+        lng: null,
+        fuelType: props.fuelType,
+        radius: props.radius,
+        sort: props.sort,
+    })
+}
+
+function useMyLocation() {
+    if (!navigator.geolocation) return
+    locating.value = true
+    navigator.geolocation.getCurrentPosition(
+        ({ coords }) => {
+            locating.value = false
+            postcode.value = ''
+            emit('search', {
+                postcode: null,
+                lat: coords.latitude,
+                lng: coords.longitude,
+                fuelType: props.fuelType,
+                radius: props.radius,
+                sort: props.sort,
+            })
+        },
+        () => { locating.value = false },
+        { timeout: 8000, enableHighAccuracy: false, maximumAge: 30000 },
+    )
+}
+</script>

resources/js/components/landing/LandingNav.vue

@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+<template>
+    <nav class="fixed top-0 w-full z-50 bg-zinc-50/90 backdrop-blur-sm border-b border-zinc-300 px-6 py-4 md:px-12">
+        <div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto flex items-center justify-between gap-6">
+            <RouterLink class="flex items-center gap-3 shrink-0" to="/">
+                <div class="w-9 h-9 md:w-10 md:h-10 rounded-lg bg-accent flex items-center justify-center shadow-md">
+                    <iconify-icon class="text-white text-xl" icon="lucide:fuel"></iconify-icon>
+                </div>
+                <span class="text-xl md:text-2xl font-black font-display tracking-tighter text-accent">FuelAlert</span>
+            </RouterLink>
+
+            <div class="hidden lg:flex items-center gap-8 font-mono text-[11px] uppercase tracking-widest text-zinc-600">
+                <a class="hover:text-accent transition-colors" href="#how-it-works">How it works</a>
+                <a class="hover:text-accent transition-colors" href="#features">Why it works</a>
+                <a class="hover:text-accent transition-colors" href="#pricing">Pricing</a>
+                <a class="hover:text-accent transition-colors" href="#fleet">Fleet</a>
+            </div>
+
+            <div class="flex items-center gap-3 md:gap-5">
+                <template v-if="isAuthenticated">
+                    <RouterLink
+                        class="bg-accent text-white px-5 py-2 rounded-full text-sm font-bold shadow-md hover:bg-primary-dark transition-all"
+                        to="/dashboard"
+                    >
+                        Dashboard
+                    </RouterLink>
+                </template>
+                <template v-else>
+                    <a class="text-sm font-semibold text-zinc-600 hover:text-zinc-900 transition-colors" href="/login">Login</a>
+                    <a
+                        class="hidden sm:inline-flex bg-accent text-white px-5 py-2 rounded-full text-sm font-bold shadow-md hover:bg-primary-dark transition-all"
+                        href="/register"
+                    >
+                        Get started
+                    </a>
+                </template>
+            </div>
+        </div>
+    </nav>
+</template>
+
+<script setup>
+import { RouterLink } from 'vue-router'
+import { useAuth } from '../../composables/useAuth.js'
+
+const { isAuthenticated } = useAuth()
+</script>

resources/js/components/landing/LiveTicker.vue

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+<template>
+    <div class="inline-flex items-center gap-2 font-mono text-[11px] uppercase tracking-[0.15em] text-zinc-600">
+        <span class="size-1.5 rounded-full bg-status-good live-dot"></span>
+        <span class="font-medium">Live</span>
+        <span v-if="stationCount" aria-hidden="true">·</span>
+        <span v-if="stationCount">{{ formattedStationCount }} UK stations</span>
+        <span aria-hidden="true">·</span>
+        <span>updated {{ updatedAgo || '…' }}</span>
+    </div>
+</template>
+
+<script setup>
+import { computed, onMounted, onUnmounted, ref } from 'vue'
+
+const props = defineProps({
+    stationCount: { type: Number, default: null },
+    latestPriceAt: { type: String, default: null },
+})
+
+const now = ref(Date.now())
+let ticker = null
+
+const formattedStationCount = computed(() => {
+    return props.stationCount == null ? '' : props.stationCount.toLocaleString('en-GB')
+})
+
+const updatedAgo = computed(() => {
+    if (!props.latestPriceAt) return ''
+    const diffMin = Math.floor((now.value - new Date(props.latestPriceAt).getTime()) / 60000)
+    if (diffMin < 1) return 'just now'
+    if (diffMin < 60) return `${diffMin} min ago`
+    const hours = Math.floor(diffMin / 60)
+    if (hours < 24) return `${hours} hr ago`
+    const days = Math.floor(hours / 24)
+    return `${days} day${days === 1 ? '' : 's'} ago`
+})
+
+onMounted(() => {
+    ticker = setInterval(() => { now.value = Date.now() }, 60000)
+})
+
+onUnmounted(() => {
+    if (ticker) clearInterval(ticker)
+})
+</script>

resources/js/components/landing/StatsRow.vue

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+<template>
+    <dl class="hidden md:flex items-center divide-x divide-zinc-300">
+        <div v-for="stat in stats" :key="stat.label" class="px-8 first:pl-0 last:pr-0">
+            <dt class="sr-only">{{ stat.label }}</dt>
+            <dd>
+                <span class="block font-serif text-2xl text-zinc-900 leading-none">{{ stat.value }}</span>
+                <span class="block font-mono text-[11px] uppercase tracking-widest text-zinc-500 mt-1.5">{{ stat.label }}</span>
+            </dd>
+        </div>
+    </dl>
+</template>
+
+<script setup>
+import { computed } from 'vue'
+
+const props = defineProps({
+    stationCount: { type: Number, default: null },
+})
+
+const stats = computed(() => [
+    {
+        value: props.stationCount ? props.stationCount.toLocaleString('en-GB') : '11,482',
+        label: 'Stations tracked',
+    },
+    { value: '£273', label: 'Median saving / yr' },
+    { value: '84%', label: 'Forecast accuracy' },
+])
+</script>

resources/js/components/landing/VerdictCard.vue

@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
+<template>
+    <div
+        :class="{ 'max-w-md mx-auto': variant === 'full' }"
+        class="bg-zinc-50 border border-zinc-300 rounded-3xl p-5 md:p-6 shadow-[0_20px_40px_-20px_rgba(74,63,59,0.25)]"
+    >
+        <!-- Header -->
+        <div class="flex items-center justify-between gap-3 mb-5">
+            <div class="min-w-0">
+                <p class="font-mono text-[10px] uppercase tracking-widest text-zinc-500 mb-1 truncate">
+                    Today near {{ postcode }}
+                </p>
+                <h3
+                    :class="variant === 'compact' ? 'text-3xl' : 'text-4xl'"
+                    class="font-serif text-accent leading-none"
+                >
+                    {{ verdict }}
+                </h3>
+            </div>
+            <span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 shrink-0 font-mono text-[10px] uppercase tracking-widest text-zinc-600 bg-white border border-zinc-300 rounded-full px-2.5 py-1">
+                <span class="size-1.5 rounded-full bg-status-good live-dot"></span>
+                Live
+            </span>
+        </div>
+
+        <!-- Station rows -->
+        <ul class="space-y-2">
+            <li
+                v-for="(station, idx) in stations"
+                :key="station.name + idx"
+                class="flex items-center gap-3 bg-white border border-zinc-300 rounded-xl px-3 py-2.5"
+            >
+                <span class="font-mono text-xs text-zinc-500 tabular-nums">{{ String(idx + 1).padStart(2, '0') }}</span>
+                <div class="flex-1 min-w-0">
+                    <p class="font-semibold text-sm text-zinc-800 truncate">{{ station.name }}</p>
+                    <p class="font-mono text-[11px] text-zinc-500 mt-0.5">{{ station.distance }}</p>
+                </div>
+                <span
+                    v-if="station.tag"
+                    class="font-mono text-[9px] uppercase tracking-widest bg-accent text-white rounded-full px-2 py-0.5"
+                >
+                    {{ station.tag }}
+                </span>
+                <span class="font-mono font-medium text-sm text-zinc-900 tabular-nums">{{ station.price }}</span>
+            </li>
+        </ul>
+
+        <!-- Footer -->
+        <p v-if="moreCount" class="font-mono text-[11px] text-zinc-500 mt-4 text-center">
+            + {{ moreCount }} more stations within {{ radiusMiles }} miles
+        </p>
+    </div>
+</template>
+
+<script setup>
+defineProps({
+    postcode: { type: String, default: 'SW1A 1AA' },
+    verdict: { type: String, default: 'Fill up today' },
+    stations: {
+        type: Array,
+        default: () => [
+            { name: 'Tesco Victoria', distance: '0.4 mi', price: '142.9p', tag: 'Cheapest' },
+            { name: "Sainsbury's Nine Elms", distance: '1.4 mi', price: '143.9p', tag: null },
+        ],
+    },
+    moreCount: { type: Number, default: 21 },
+    radiusMiles: { type: Number, default: 5 },
+    variant: {
+        type: String,
+        default: 'full',
+        validator: (v) => ['full', 'compact'].includes(v),
+    },
+})
+</script>

resources/js/composables/useAuth.js

@@ -19,6 +19,22 @@ export function useAuth() {
         return ['basic', 'plus', 'pro'].includes(userTier.value)
     })
 
+    const subscriptionCancelled = computed(() => {
+        return user.value?.subscription_cancelled ?? false
+    })
+
+    const subscriptionCadence = computed(() => {
+        return user.value?.subscription_cadence ?? null
+    })
+
+    const subscribedAt = computed(() => {
+        return user.value?.subscribed_at ?? null
+    })
+
+    const subscriptionExpiresAt = computed(() => {
+        return user.value?.subscription_expires_at ?? null
+    })
+
     async function fetchUser() {
         if (fetched.value) {
             return
@@ -68,6 +84,10 @@ export function useAuth() {
         isAuthenticated,
         userTier,
         isPaidTier,
+        subscriptionCancelled,
+        subscriptionCadence,
+        subscribedAt,
+        subscriptionExpiresAt,
         fetchUser,
         clearUser,
         logout,

resources/js/composables/usePrediction.js

@@ -1,31 +0,0 @@
-import { ref } from 'vue'
-import api from '../axios.js'
-
-export function usePrediction() {
-    const prediction = ref(null)
-    const loading = ref(false)
-    const error = ref(null)
-
-    async function fetch({ lat, lng } = {}) {
-        loading.value = true
-        error.value = null
-        prediction.value = null
-
-        const params = {}
-        if (lat && lng) {
-            params.lat = lat
-            params.lng = lng
-        }
-
-        try {
-            const response = await api.get('/prediction', { params })
-            prediction.value = response.data
-        } catch (err) {
-            error.value = 'Unable to load prediction.'
-        } finally {
-            loading.value = false
-        }
-    }
-
-    return { prediction, loading, error, fetch }
-}